136. How Trump’s Defense Doctrine Slams Europe

0:00With Christmas coming up, why not give someone a membership to the show? They'll get exclusive access to bonus episodes every week, ad-free listening, and early access to our live show tickets, too. Just head to TheRestIsPoliticsUS.com and click on gifts.

0:20Christmas, a time for family, friends, and reflection. As the turkeys carved, one side of the table praises the portion sizes, the other demands a recount. If you're shopping for the politically obsessed this Christmas, give them something calmer than cable news. A founding membership to the rest is politics, U.S. What could be better than ad-free listening, weekly bonuses, a question and answer session, early access to our live shows and our deep dive series on people reshaping modern America. We've already explored President Ronald Reagan and unelected President Elon Musk. And let's just say the casting calls keep coming.

1:00It's measured, intelligent, and global in outlook with just the right dose of perspective and humor in a world that's running short on all of that. Well, listen, whether you're in New York or Newcastle, democracy still deserves a closer listen. So if you'd rather give a gift that sparks the conversation instead of another argument. Make Christmas great again. Head to the restispoliticsus.com and click on gifts. That's the rest is politics, us.com and click on gifts. Merry Christmas, everybody. In America, half of every dollar spent on brand medicines goes to entities who don't make them. While middlemen like PBMs and 340B hospitals drive up costs, Biopharma is investing$500 billion in new infrastructure and manufacturing here at home and helping patients buy medicines directly at lower prices.

1:53Tell Washington to end middleman markups and put American patients first. Visit phrma.org slash middleman. Running a business comes with a lot of what-ifs. But luckily, there's a simple answer to them. Shopify. It's the commerce platform behind millions of businesses, including Thrive Cosmetics and Momofuku. And it'll help you with everything you need. From website design and marketing to boosting sales and expanding operations, Shopify can get the job done and make your dream a reality. Turn those what-ifs into... Sign up for your$1 per month trial at shopify.com slash special offer. When you walk into a Burlington, you're walking into amazing prices and great gifts.

2:36That's main character energy. Because at Burlington, the holiday savings aren't the only things turning heads. Discover quality finds and perfect presents for everyone on your list, even those who are hard to shop for. Toys and jewelry to new beauty brands and styles, these gifts go seamlessly from our stores to under your tree. Seriously, with these savings, why shop anywhere else?

3:08Hello and welcome to The Rest is Politics US with me, Katty Kay. And me, Anthony Scaramucci. I'm feeling it today, Katty. Okay, I'm bringing back my Christmas t-shirt celebration. Okay, starting with the Scrooge and Marley Counting House. See that? Very nice. I'm in Merida in Mexico visiting my daughter who's here for a couple of months. And there are Christmas decorations everywhere. You would like it. The Scaramucci household would be impressed with the lights in Merida. They go full out. There's a massive big crash in the main square with one of the wise men riding in on an elephant. Did they ride in on an elephant?

3:46Was that actually possible to come on an elephant to Palestine? But anyway. I don't know, Caddy, but for those of you that have watched the National Lampoon Christmas Vacation, the Scaramucci's do channel the Griswolds, okay? You can see the house from space, Caddy. Yes, Elon Musk will be watching you when he gets there. Yes, it's very well lit. Anyway, today on the program, we are going to be diving into Trump's big national security reboot. It's called The National Security Strategy. It's 33 pages long. I had a read of it yesterday. And it is a stunning departure in American foreign policy since the Second World War.

4:25It's not in some ways surprising that Donald Trump is rejecting post-World War II orthodoxy. But the way he's done it in this document and signed his name to it and put it down in print, I think is fascinating. And there's been extraordinary reactions from Russia and from much of Europe as well. So we're going to get into that. But the number one concern, security concern for the United States of America in the year of our Lord 2025 is, Anthony? Immigration. Immigration. The country of immigrants has decided that their biggest security concern is immigration. So we'll talk about that after the break and what it means and what American diplomats are now going to have to do around the world to make sure that this is not just an American concern, but a concern for everybody else as well.

5:10So the national security strategy will form the basis of Donald Trump's security ideology. Every president, as they come into office, produces a national security strategy that then forms what is known as the national defense strategy. There's a classified and an unclassified part of these documents. What we're seeing is the unclassified part. And what people I have spoken to, people who are at a senior level have been involved in drawing up previous national security strategies, say, so stunning about this one is the way that it totally reorientates America's priorities. Ever since the Second World War, we've sort of shuffled around.

5:49Europe's been a major priority for the first period after the Second World War, and then it was the Middle East, and then it was Asia, and those three areas of the world have shuffled around. But this document under Donald Trump 2.0 makes the Western hemisphere, Latin America, America's main strategic security focus. The focus is on stopping drugs coming into America and stopping immigration coming into America. I think the most stunning part of this document is the whole-scale rejection of ideology as something that underpins American security. This is not a document that is promoting democracy or pluralism or even particularly America as a sort of shining city on the hill.

6:37This is a mercantilist document. And I think in some ways that is not surprising. But what is surprising is that it's down there in black and white. And the most ferocious part of this document, the language that is the harshest, is reserved for America's traditional allies and that's Europe. We'll get into some of that in a second. The person I spoke to had been very senior in the Pentagon who had drawn up previous national security strategies said to me that it was just extraordinary to see America walking away from the post-World War II international rules-based order and adopting this attitude that Europe is not an ally really.

7:19It's a problem, more of a problem if you read this document in many ways than Russia is. So what did you think of it, Anthony? So I am proud to tell you that I read through the whole document and I must be a boring person on a Sunday, Katty, because I took lots of notes and I'm ready for you today. I am so disappointed in that document in so many different ways. but because this podcast is about objectivity and telling people here in the united states and around the world that we have to be honest with people this country has changed this is not the country of 1947 this is a different country today there's fears in the country of immigration there's xenophobic fears the isolationist strand that the u.s has always had caddy is in acceleration here in 2025.

8:17And there's no real leaders in the country that are turning the tide of that. And so if you don't mind, I'm going to give three things that I agree with in the document and three things I wish we have thought about. So the first three things I agree in the document, okay, if you want to protect the borders, I'm all about that. I understand that. You have to have a tight border. That's every country. That doesn't mean you don't have legal immigration and a continual flow of legal immigrants, but you really can't have illegal immigrants, because as Milton Friedman would say, you're in a welfare state.

8:54Market forces dictate that they'll come in and participate in the welfare state without paying taxes. So that's not fair to the American people. The other thing is you've got to re-industrialize. We did make a mistake. The end of history didn't happen. You have to reassure a lot of this stuff, and I totally understand that. And the third thing, believe it or not, I do also believe in is having a pro-America policy related to South America. So when I say pro-America policy, this corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, I don't like the way the president's going about it, but I do think we need to strengthen our relationships with the people of South America.

9:34Remind people what the Monroe Doctrine is. Okay. This is interesting because it was the early 19th century. James Monroe wrote a policy brief that basically said, Europe, stay out of the Western hemisphere. The United States, the ambit of power for the United States is our hemisphere. and yes, you've got colonies in South America and you've got allies in South America, but generally as it relates to war and diplomacy, this is the US's backyard. Leave us alone at your peril. Now, what's interesting when he said that, we didn't really have the naval power or the military right to project it, but it was a directionally thematic thing that I think It was generally taken under advisement in Europe and it probably, Caddy, not to get overly esoteric, but it probably prevented European theater allies from entering the Civil War.

10:32I figured they looked at that and said, okay, you know what? We don't want to have a problem with whoever wins the war. We don't want to have a problem and be in an adversarial situation. So the Monroe Doctrine, you're in Europe, leave us alone on our own backyard. But Caddy, here's the problem, okay? you don't there's the things i don't agree with you don't have to be solitary to be sovereign you don't have to be america first and europe last europe to me is a power multiplier for the united states europe to me is there's 500 million plus people if you look at the whole western european theater that's uh places we can sell our goods places where we can build relationships export our culture, and protect Western liberal democracy.

11:22Last point that I want to make, and this is one that I really can't believe he's saying, is you can't take a regional, multi-power, neoclassical foreign policy approach, i.e. 1890. You can't do it in a world like this. You're still one of the existing standing superpowers. We could say that China is challenging that, but if you really look at our two militaries, it really hasn't done that. You have to force this, Gaddy. And again, I have said this to you before, but I'll say it here, then I will shut up. Go back to Thomas Hobbes and go back to the Leviathan. There's three sentences in the Leviathan.

12:05Eisenhower always quoted them. when you have one hegemonic force that can suppress the internecine tribal conflicts around the world you get the greatest levels of peace and the greatest levels of prosperity and that is in america's interest that is america first to somebody like me and the fact that the president wants to move to a multi-polar world is dangerous okay i'm done but i just had to get all that out because I spent a lot of time on this this weekend. Look, I think all of that is true, but let's try and go through it a little bit systematically. And I do think the Europe part of this is so important, and you're getting extraordinary reactions from Europe, because in this document, they talk about Europe's civilizational erasure.

12:54It talks about ending the perception and preventing the reality of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance. It talks about the risk to America if it carries on with immigration of these countries being non-majority European. I mean, interestingly, this document is kind of full of contradictions because on the one hand, the document says, in the Middle East, we will no longer be the people that come in and tell you how to run your world. And, you know, if you want to carry on being autocratic monarchies, that's fine with us, forget human rights, all of that kind of woke stuff that previous administrations had.

13:24But actually, when it comes to Europe, America is saying we can get involved. That is one of the most startling contradictions, right, in this document is that on the one to have, we're not going to get involved. But actually, when it comes to Europe, we do reserve the right to get involved and make sure that you stay European. I guess the code there is European and more white. We like these nationalist parties. They're actually getting involved in domestic European politics by saying, we like these nationalist patriotic parties that are coming up. What did you think of the section on Europe? There's been a stunning reaction from Europe, by the way, about this.

14:05Yeah, but it really isn't a surprise to anybody in Europe because all of the ambassadors in Europe have been told by Trump and Rubio that they need to promote anti-immigration policy. And we'll talk about that after the break to the immigration stuff. Yeah, basically telling them that. But my question to you, Caddy, is, is the Kremlin happy? The Kremlin resists. Are they happy with this? Okay, so this is what the Kremlin said. I am now the Kremlin spokesperson. Oh, I like this. I like this. In fact, I'm going to put out a statement saying this is broadly in alignment with Russia's priorities. Yeah.

14:38I think the Kremlin is making it absolutely clear that this is what they want. And one person that I spoke to over the weekend, a former general, said to me, this reads like Russian talking points. What did you think of that? I think it's all of that. And I think this is the Trump view that we have to let people know this was his view first term. This was his view in 1987. This is his view today in 2025 is that we've carried people too long. People have freeloaded and looted the American society. And I'm not going to let that happen on my watch. And I can make money off of the Russians and I can make money here and make money there.

15:23And I've said this before, Anthony, I have some sympathy with some of that, right? The idea, the document says the era of burden sharing is now commencing and the era of America, I think, I mean, it's a little condescending because it says, you know, Europe is not a bunch of children, our allies aren't children. But I actually do think it's quite good for these countries to share some of the burden in Europe and in Asia. So again, as I started my analysis, There are some things I agree with. You can fact check me on this, but I believe there are 11 nations that have met of the 28 nations in NATO that have met the 2 % threshold as of 2024.

16:02And so that's not fair. Okay, I think that Trump signaled that in the first term. I think Eisenhower said early on, let that go. No problem. Let's let America be this force multiplying benefit bidder of people not spending a lot of money on their military. I don't want Germany to remilitarize. This is all rhetoric from Eisenhower. But the world has turned, Cady. We're now 70 years from Eisenhower, 80 years from Truman. And so it is a different world today. And I recognize that. I would say to European leadership, guys, you don't have to go to 5%. I think that's a ridiculously high threshold and it would hurt those economies.

16:45I'd rather have those countries spend that money on innovation, venture capital spending and things like that. But let's get to the 2%. Get the 28 countries to the 2%. Let's share the security. But you see, Trump doesn't want that because he's got buddies in the Kremlin and he's a very fearful guy of russia and the fearful guy of whatever russia has on him and so all this stuff is being mandated by him and by the way even though steve miller is not technically a national security guy that memo went through his office yes it reads like steven miller and i can guarantee you he wrote many of the passages if you threw that memo at the chat gbt and says who does this sound the most like whose writing does this sound the most like i say steven miller yeah Okay, but here's where I would say, secure the border.

17:36I'm a yes on that, okay? Yes to legal immigration. When I hear the word immigration, Caddy, the next word that comes to mind to me is talent, workforce talent. I want the immigrants here. I want the very poor Sergey Brin coming in poor and now worth hundreds of billions of dollars because he was the mastermind alongside of his friends like Larry Page of Google. I want that. But I'm going to say no to the xenophobic rhetoric and the nonsense of the national security effect of the browning of Europe or the browning of the United States. I think that that is very unfair. And I'll just finish by saying this.

18:18It's not our nation first and our allies last, guys. You can't think like that. How on God's earth is there nobody who's a Republican thinking about running for president that doesn't get to a microphone right now and say, guys, this is not where we want to be? Where's the mature Republican that says, yes, we have to reform these institutions? No question. Yes, we have to freshen up the rules-based society. No question. But we can't go in the direction that Trump wants. This would be a disaster for us. Is there a world in which there is a sort of cynical but strategic way of thinking in the White House?

18:58And let's keep the focus on Europe for a second, because I think that's some of the most radical rhetoric in this document, where they're thinking, unless we really sound like we're going to pull the plug on Europe entirely, and on Ukraine entirely, those feckless Europeans won't do anything. because Barack Obama tried to get the Europeans to increase their defense spending. Trump, one, started the process by putting pressure. But when there's not a sense of urgency, the Europeans go back, the Germans go back to focusing on cars and exports and their export-led economy. And it's only very recently that Ryan Mattel has really got the political wind behind it.

19:41And there's an acceptance that Germany has to rearm. I mean, for all of the historical reasons that you say. Obviously, no one wanted Germany to rearm after the Second World War. But could you be thinking in the White House, okay, we're going to sound really tough to make sure that those Europeans get the message? There's a fascinating report out in Reuters this morning, which is saying that US officials have communicated to Europeans that they want Europe to take over the majority of all of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, everything from missiles to intelligence by 2027. I mean, there's no way Europe's going to be ready to do that.

20:20They are starting the process. Like you said, they are growing, but there's no way they can do that by 2027. And there are implications in this document that if Europe carries on allowing mass migration, if Europe is no longer a sort of, you know, effectively a white Christian majority continent, then America, the Trump administration wouldn't see a need to be part of NATO anymore, that NATO would no longer be what it was meant to be. So what I'm asking, I suppose, is this a kind of strategic thinking? I read this and I think this comes from genuine dislike of Europe and a genuine antipathy towards the continent and that kind of freeloading attitude that you talk about.

20:59But maybe they're actually just thinking this is a way to make sure that Europeans do spend more on defense. If I played you this speech at the Munich Security Conference of J.D. Vance, Yeah. Largely written by Stephen Miller. And then I said, okay, that's that. And now read this, largely written by Stephen Miller. You'd say, okay, that's the president's strategy. And that's what the president wants. And there's a humiliation component of this because Trump likes the humiliation component. There's fear tactic. There's bombast in it. But remember, you can't take a 19th century strategy, Katty, and run the country in the 21st century.

21:38You can't do that. You know, if Kissinger was here, he would try to influence Trump by telling him, you're giving up too much cards on the table. Okay, you don't have to be Dick Cheney, where you think you're going to use the military muscle to flex on people that don't want to be flexed on. They're going to laugh at you. But you could use the military and your diplomacy and your soft power to burgeon democracies and to burgeon the free world and to make South America a better Western hemispheric cohabitating partner to the United States, better on energy, better on exportation, et cetera. Why are we going in this direction?

22:25This is a meaner and not necessarily tougher approach. And if I'm a European, European leader, I'm turned off by it. But I'm also looking around saying, what happened to America, Katty? You're the expat, 25 years in America. So go ahead. You're briefing now a European leader. You're in one of the salons of Europe. And the European leader looks at you and says, Katty, you've lived there for 25 years. What happened, Katty? What happened? Look, I don't know that this is what's happened to America. And I think you're right to point out that there are Republican senators who are probably more of the old school way of thinking.

23:06about you want to have alliances and alliances are important, but this really does read like a kind of J.D. Vance, Stephen Miller document with Donald Trump's sign-off because he writes that forwarding letter with his signature very clearly on it. He has always believed that the Europeans are freeloaded. He has this view of American foreign policy is transactional. In some ways, American foreign policy has always been transactional. It's just that America believed in the need to have alliances and it found those alliances in like-minded democratic pluralistic countries. But that way of thinking has changed now.

23:41I think the risk for America of this document is that it has no ideological underpinnings to alliances other than making money. I mean, all of the sections on China are not really about the Chinese threat to AI or biotechnology or the cyber attacks, incredibly sophisticated cyber attacks that China is now launching. There's nothing, not very much really about China's military threat. It's about, and you heard it in Pete Hegseth's speech over the weekend at the Reagan Center out in California, that it's about respecting China as a commercial partner and trying to get the best out of the commercial relationship.

24:20A lot of this is about how do we make money and that might is right and money is the underpinning of our foreign policy. But that can get you so far in the short term, I don't know that it builds good long-term relationships. Okay, this is what a couple of Europeans are saying. We've had the view from Russia, which is that this is largely consistent with our vision. Carl Bildt, the former prime minister of Sweden, put out on X, the only place the White House sees as a threat to democracy that is worth US intervening in is Europe. Bizarre. That's what he put out. But let me give you Donald Tusk, the president of Poland.

24:58He put out, Dear American friends, Europe is your closest ally, not your problem, Prime Minister Tusk posted on social media on Saturday. And we have common enemies. At least that's how it's been in the last 80 years. We need to stick to this. This is the only reasonable strategy of our common security unless something has changed. I would say Donald Tusk's comments sum up the view from Europe on this document. They're not totally surprised, but I think the biggest risk, Anthony, here of this document is not so much to Europe's security, it's to America's security. Because if Europe now looks at China as a more reliable partner, and they don't want to.

25:45I've been, European leaders keep telling me this. We don't want to look to China, but they're looking at this and thinking, wow, that is not a United States that we can depend on. And I don't think that's good for America. You're saying a lot of different things. So let me just go over a few of them. I think you're right about where European leadership is. I think it's sad for me because I see us, this alliance is so important for freedom and Western liberalism. Again, you've got 5.9 million people living under some level of totalitarianism. We in the West, we free speaking people everywhere. We are in the minority in the world and it's important for America to flex freedom and it's important for America alongside of its longstanding allies to push that agenda so that we have this space for our grandchildren and our great-grandchildren.

26:37Okay, we're at risk if we don't think like that. And then the second thing as it relates to China, I'm sort of shocked by the whole thing with China in the document. You know, and I heard Besant's Secretary of Treasury, Scott Besant, speak last week at the deal book event. He was interviewed by Andrew Ross Sorkin, a bud of mine. And Besant said something. I said, okay, that does make sense. He said there's no change, meaning we have this strategic ambiguity related to Taiwan and China. Yes, I think that the document probably comes as relief to Asian allies, right? Yeah, yeah. So that's the positive in the document, but the negative in the document is we let the Chinese do whatever the hell they want mostly.

27:20Right now, I mean, let me translate the document. So right now, we're dependent on a lot of chips coming out of that island. Someday we're not going to be. Once we're not, do whatever the hell you want. That's what I hear. Do you hear something different? Please speak up. No, that's pretty much what I hear. Okay, we're going to wrap and talk about immigration after the break and the Western Hemisphere because that's the other big shift in this document. But I'm just going to read you a couple of things from the national security strategy that came out eight years ago in the first Trump administration.