169. Trump Has Lost Control of Iran - And He Knows It

17:36Anthony Scaramucci:I don't want to be overly, you know, overly dramatic about this, but I think this is a turning point in his legacy.

17:42Katty Kay:No, there's a way out of this. They could go back to Oman. What we do know about wars is that wars do end. You know, some last 30 years, but wars do end. And so there is a way out of this. The question is, for Donald Trump and his hyper-masculinity and his overlaunched, overbite of bravado, is he going to be able to handle that? And the short answer is he's got nobody around him that's coaching him in that direction. Okay, so that's the danger.

18:13Anthony Scaramucci:He says, I'll know it in my bones when this war is over. Yeah, great. Which is very reassuring.

18:19Katty Kay:That's very helpful. He knows it. He alone can solve this. He can do whatever he wants.

18:24Anthony Scaramucci:But can I ask you something about that quickly? And then I also want to talk about US and Israel, because you mentioned how this is what Bibi wanted. I think this is terrible for America's relationship with Israel going forward. And there is dramatic polling on that. I want to talk about that in a second. But quickly, before we get there, I wanted to ask you, yes, he can go back to Oman. and basically be at the status quo ante before all of this happened. But can he prevent a medium term energy shock from hitting the world economy and the American economy? Or is that already going to happen? Because this takes a while to reintroduce once you've blown up these facilities, it takes a while to get back online.

19:05Katty Kay:As you and I are speaking, we're already in an energy shock and disruption. Oil's at$116. That's up from$60 a barrel. And how long does it last? Well, remember, you've got nowhere to store this stuff. So when these guys are shutting down production, they're shutting down production, they have nowhere to store it. So it's three, six, possibly 10 weeks to restore full production capabilities. When you're hitting the gas fields in Oman because the gas fields in Iran are hit. Remember, they share that offshore gas field. They've been very successful at sharing that liquid natural gas field for 40 plus years.

19:50Katty Kay:It's always been a diplomatic bridge between the Arabs on the Arabian Peninsula and the Persians across the Gulf. That's the diplomatic bridge. And what's happening now is they're hitting that gas field, which is blowing up that bridge. The Omani said, all military personnel, all diplomatic personnel from Iran, you have 48 hours to leave after those things were shit. So when your diplomats are leaving, it's very, very bad. That is not de-escalation. That is escalation. But again, I want to go to where the situation room is. I want to put people right in the room and I want to talk about what should be being said and what is actually being said based on my knowledge, Gaddy, of talking to people.

20:36Katty Kay:So one, we're going to go and put the troops in. Okay, what are they going to do, guys? Okay, well, here's what they're going to do. They're going to do coast control, coastal control for the Strait of War news. They're going to be looking for nuclear weapons. They're going to take out high value targets like senior IRGC leadership. ship. We're going to do short duration raids, helicopter insurgents, think Bin Laden style raids. This is how they're talking to Trump in the room.

21:06Anthony Scaramucci:That is terrifying if that is what he's saying because just taking out that nuclear material is a massive and very dangerous operation. You've got to have an airfield. You've got to secure the airfield. You've got to have flights going in and out. You've got to dig through however many hundreds of meters it is of rubble to get to a commodity that is incredibly fragile and febrile. I mean, it's just -

21:31Katty Kay:Trump is seeing Zero Dark Thirty and he's seeing Jessica Chastain and James Galdolfini in the movie. That's what he's saying. Okay. Guys, I wish this wasn't the truth, but we got to just tell people, all right? He's seeing the Osama raid. Okay. So the other thing that's happening is that is a commitment trap. Okay. And the minute you go to do that, every step that you're doing is going to cement the escalation. Okay, so now you have troops hitting the ground. His team is telling him that's going to end the deadlock. But in my opinion, sir, Mr. President, that's going to cement the deadlock. And that's going to put American lives in harm's way as the collateral of that deadlock.

22:18Katty Kay:But I think it's very important for people to know, and I'm going to give it more than 50%, Caddy, more than 50 % that we're going to have troops on the ground in the next two weeks, unless there's some type of diplomatic solution that I don't see right now, and maybe you do see it. But again, Trump is all over the place, Caddy. Yeah. By the way, their capabilities are completely destroyed. Their Navy is destroyed. Their Air Force is destroyed. But then why are you sending out tweets about bombs going off and missile strikes in gas fields? If everything's destroyed.

22:54Anthony Scaramucci:Well, because we don't believe him because he said last June, I've just obliterated Iran's nuclear capacity. Clearly, that is not the case or else he wouldn't be saying today we need to make sure that they can never have a nuclear weapon. So we know that what he says is not the reality. He has already shown us that. And I agree with you. I think at the moment, because of who he is and because of the nature of the American war machine and it being so powerful, escalation looks more of a possibility than de-escalation. Can I just say quickly one thing about U.S. and Israel? Because I actually think this war is a turning point as well in America's future relationship with Israel.

23:36Anthony Scaramucci:Bibi Netanyahu may feel that he is getting what he wants because that suits Bibi Netanyahu. But if you look at, there's a recent poll out this week that was stunning in America's attitude, Americans' attitudes towards Israel. So in 2013, 45 % of Americans sympathized more with Israel. 13 % sympathized more with the Palestinians. In a poll by NBC News this week, 40 % of Americans sympathized more with Israel, 39 % of Americans sympathized more with the Palestinians. We've gone from 13 % to 39 % in 13 years. Now, some of that has been Gaza and the bombing in Gaza, but this is going to take it in a new direction.

24:22Anthony Scaramucci:50 % of independents now see Israel negatively. 60 % of Democrats see Israel negatively. We're seeing it play out in American politics. We're seeing the pro-Israel lobby group, AIPAC, having to put huge amounts of money, almost$20 million they put into primaries in democratic races in the state of Illinois just this week to try and get candidates who are more Israel friendly, or at least not Israel skeptics. But you're now ushering in a generation of Americans who are not going to see Israel as America's ally. And when those younger Americans, and you're seeing it amongst independents and you're seeing it amongst Democrats, once those people take power, Israel needs to be very worried.

25:02Anthony Scaramucci:I mean, if I was Bibi Netanyahu and I was concerned about the future of my country's security, I would be more worried about what's happening in America right now in terms of perceptions of Israel than I would be about trying to make sure that I have some forever war with Iran.

25:19Katty Kay:Look, it makes me sad because I've been to Israel many times. Obviously, I'm a philo-Semite. I hate the scourge of anti-Semitism. I think you can criticize the Israeli government, however, for some actions that they're taking without being deemed an anti-Semite. That's just my view. Yes. Sometimes I notice if you do say something negative about the Israeli government, people say, oh, you're an anti-Semite. You know, I'm not an anti-Semite. I've been to more bar mitzvahs than christlings. I grew up on Long Island. Okay, so I'm not an anti-Semite, but I would say, of course, Netanyahu would never listen to a guy like me, but I would say, number one, AIPAC, which is an American organization, not a foreign organization.

26:02Katty Kay:These are American citizens that are supporting Israel through political donations. AIPAC is losing the Democratic Party.

26:11Anthony Scaramucci:They are hiding their donations to candidates by saying it's not AIPAC giving money. It's groups like Affordable Chicago Now, Elect Chicago Women, United Democracy Project. They're not putting Israel or the pro or APAC anywhere in the names of the groups. They're having to hide the money that they're using to support these more pro-Israel candidates.

26:34Katty Kay:That's a really important point, right? That I can know. I mean, that's not something that would have happened in the 80s, 90s, 2000.

26:42Anthony Scaramucci:Wouldn't have happened 13 years ago. Okay.

26:45Katty Kay:So, you know, the Americans think this is a war of choice. The Israelis think this is a war of necessity. And I think that's another point of divergence of what's going on. But again, I know we're going to switch topics here momentarily, but I'll just say this to people. Mr. President, what are the objectives? Define winning. Because what you're doing right now is you are creeping the escalation. And if you put those ground troops in, that is a commitment trap. Okay. And when the Iranians tell you, and this is something I know about Trump, when the Iranians say, and they said it this week, you put those ground troops in, is going to be just like Vietnam for you guys.

27:30Katty Kay:How does Donald Trump react to a sentence like that, Cady? He says, I know better.

27:35Anthony Scaramucci:I can do it differently. I'm not like the others. I'm the president that can save us. And I'll know it in my bones, Anthony. He'll know it in his bones so we can all be reassured.

27:45Katty Kay:That would encourage him to put the ground troops in. Exactly.

27:48Anthony Scaramucci:And his bones smell weakness and his bones are terrified of anything that would make him look weak and that's why he won't de-escalate at this point that is why he's going to be pushed into escalation because he doesn't want to look weak i think it is i think it is a disgrace and

28:05Katty Kay:i want to be on the record saying this i think it is a disgrace of the article one men and women who sit in the congress that have allowed this thing to go in this direction without any type of organized intervention or any type of getting Rubio or Hexeth or General Cain in the room and saying, WTF guys, what are the objectives and why are we doing this? And last point, Caddy said something that you guys need to have an exclamation point put on. Caddy said that they said that Trump, all the other guys were cowards, but not you, big boy. you're the muscle man in the room and caddy said oh i like that so now i'm going to strike them to show my differentiation from the cowards who have their portraits hung in the white house next to mine and that's where we are in america right now ladies and gents we're going to take

29:08Anthony Scaramucci:a break and come back and talk about the save america act and the midterms because of course this is all playing into that as well

29:20Anthony Scaramucci:hello and welcome back before we jump into our discussion on the save america act uh we wanted to let you know that members pre-sale is now open for our live show at london's south bank center can't wait for that anthony that's right that's right katie you know we're going to be teaming

29:37Katty Kay:up with our british counterparts rory stewart and alistair campbell live on stage who's going to have more makeup, them or us? I expect us to look better, but them to have more makeup, how about that? But we're going to be going live with the rest is classified, David McCloskey. So we're going to be talking about Cold War coups to Trump's global ambitions. And we're asking the following question, Caddy, is America still the world's policeman? So if you want to make sure you get a ticket, sign up now at the rest is politics us.com and we will mail you. We will give you an email with the exclusive presale link.

30:17Katty Kay:For those of you who aren't members, we do love you too. Of course, we'd like you to be members, but general sales go live on the 26th of March at 10 a.m. at southbankcenter.co.uk.

30:31Anthony Scaramucci:We can't wait to see you there. We're looking forward to it. Okay, let's get back to the show and the politics of all of this because it's been a very interesting week in politics. On Tuesday, the Senate voted to begin debate on something called the Save America Act. This has become an obsession of Donald Trump's. He sees this as a way to make sure that there is no fraud in American elections. It all harks back to his belief that he actually knows is not the case, but continues to say publicly that the 2020 election was stolen and that there was massive fraud and that you had a huge number of people who were in the country illegally voting in American elections.

31:10Anthony Scaramucci:And that is why he lost the 2020 election. It was nothing to do with the fact that the public was exhausted and wanted to vote for somebody else. So he has brought about enormous amount of pressure. He is putting an incredible amount of pressure on Republicans in the Senate. It's already passed through the House. Now he wants the Republicans in the Senate to vote to pass this thing called the Save Act, which has now become the Save America Act, which would institute tough new citizenship and photo ID requirements for people who are voting. This actually is something that a lot of other Western democracies have.

31:47Anthony Scaramucci:When you vote, you have to produce ID to prove that you are who you say you are. Now, actually, there is an enormous amount of support in the public, in the polls for having voter ID. People actually quite like that. But the way this bill is framed, it would actually mean that a lot of Americans who don't have the right kinds of ID, who don't have access to their birth certificates, would have to get new birth certificates, who don't have passports, would have to get new passports. Millions of Americans don't have passports. And those IDs can be expensive and time consuming to procure. So you've got Democrats saying this isn't a voter ID bill.

32:27Anthony Scaramucci:This is a voter suppression law. And this is an attempt by the president to make sure that certain people don't show up and vote, low income people, people of color, particularly who don't have access to those documents or who don't want to pay. Sometimes it can cost you up to$100 or$200 to get a copy of your birth certificate or to get a passport. Those are people who would be disenfranchised because of this law. And you've even had people like Kristi Noem saying, we want kind of letting the cat out of the bag. We want the right kind of people voting. You've had Senator Mike Lee of Utah saying, we need more Republicans voting.

33:05Anthony Scaramucci:And so that's why we need this act. It's not going to pass, Anthony. The president knows it's not going to pass because, as Senator John Thunas said, we don't have the numbers to make this pass. But I think this is all about Trump wanting Republicans to make a show of this bill, to make a big noise and a stink and show that they're trying to pass this bill. And it's a performance thing rather than him actually believing that this bill is going to pass. And I think it's because he's so worried about the midterm elections. He knows that he's going to lose the House at the moment if it was held tomorrow.

33:40Anthony Scaramucci:And if it was held tomorrow, very potentially he's going to lose the Senate. So he's going to try and do anything he can to be able to say afterwards, well, if we'd had the Save America Act, you see, we wouldn't have lost.

33:51Katty Kay:So, I mean, listen, this is also, I think it's important for people to know this. This is part of the culture war, right? And so let's talk about the Napoleonic culture war.

34:01Anthony Scaramucci:Yes, it's an us against them.

34:02Katty Kay:Exactly. And so there's been some comments that I wish the Democrats didn't say, just comments that the Republicans are picking up.

34:11Anthony Scaramucci:These are comments about African-Americans where Governor Hochul said, well, they don't turn on a computer.

34:18Katty Kay:I don't know why she said that. And of course, it got taken out of context. And Schumer suggesting certain things. But I want to give people outside the United States some context here. So we gave the African-American community the right to vote after the Civil War. It was the 14th or 15th amendments of the Constitution. And then when they went to vote, they said, what's your name? They said, my name is XYZ. What's your address? Okay, that's your address. Okay, great. And then the KKK, the Ku Klux Klan, went to their house, took the father out of the house, hung him on the tree, set fire to the house.

34:51Katty Kay:So there was 50 years and some could say 100 years where people could not vote because they were going to get killed if they voted. Okay, so we have to explain that to people that there is a history of voter suppression and there's a history of punishing people if they show up the voting polls with a lack of anonymity. We have to explain that to people. And now the right will say, oh, well, that's BS now. We're liberated woke country. Just stroll in. But the truth of the matter is there are still elements of that racism in the country. And there's still elements where if you really want your freedom, you want to give people the anonymity because of the history.

35:39Katty Kay:Okay, so that's the framing, Caddy. And I'll just say this, and I think it's important for people to understand, there is scant, and I repeat, there is scant voter fraud in this country.

35:50Anthony Scaramucci:So this is all a bit of a straw man, effectively, because the president is saying we had such massive voter fraud that we need the Save America Act. I was told this week that actually the voter fraud, the number of people voting who should not be voting in the country, who are people here who are not American citizens, is 0.0007%.

36:14Katty Kay:You're making the case even better than I can make the case. But I just want to add a few things why 83 % of the people are supporting it. So I need an ID for everything. So why wouldn't I need an ID for this? Right? It makes common sense.

36:29Anthony Scaramucci:Yeah, it sounds innocuous.

36:31Katty Kay:But you've got 2.6 million people that lack a government-issued photo ID, okay? And that is the people that they want to get rid of because those are probably lower-income people, and the president's making the bet that most of those lower-income people would vote Democratic. And so this is a way for me to, or a way for him, I should say, to get rid of these people from the voter rolls. But it's a culture war thing. So, Katty, my question to you is Trump has said, hey, I am not signing any pieces of legislation until this act is resolved. So, what do you think that means exactly?

37:09Anthony Scaramucci:Well, it means no more executive orders. That's what he says. I mean, that's what he says now. I think he's also going to realize that this is not going to get passed and Trump is quite capable of reversing himself on these issues. But he is wanting to make a push between now and the midterm elections, because I've been told by somebody pretty close to the president that they are very worried about the midterm elections and that they see they have this window between now and November, but really between now and the next few months to push this act as hard as possible so that they can control the outcome of the midterm elections.

37:49Anthony Scaramucci:and that that's really what he's trying to do, that it's setting up a culture war. If it does pass, which it probably won't, they get more control of the midterm elections. If it doesn't pass, he defaults, as you say, to the MAGA view of the world, which is that it's us against them. It's us against the people who are here illegally. It's us against the Democrats. It's us against the people who are trying to steal the election from Donald Trump. It's us against the people who hate Donald Trump. And so you stoke all of that sentiment, which kind of helped him get, he thinks, elected in 2024. So, I think that's what it means.

38:28Anthony Scaramucci:But what it also means is that you have nothing happening in Congress and you have nothing happening, I guess, in the country if he's really not going to pass any other pieces of legislation. But there's no big pieces of legislation he's going to pass anyway because there's such divisions in Congress, it's not going to happen. He has no ability to pass things at the moment.

38:45Katty Kay:Yeah. So all of that is true. This would be a step towards federalizing our elections. Yes. And I think it's an unnecessary federal takeover of the elections. And I would argue, Caddy, all day long that this is best administered by the state and local governments. And by the way, if you get a strong man or strong woman, but generally a strong man and And an autocrat in place, it's hard for them to control the elections. Like Trump is frustrated that he would like to skew the elections because he's a lowlife. And so, but he can't do it because it's so broadly decentralized. So I would like to keep that decentralization in place.

39:29Katty Kay:So I'm offering my opinion alongside of our analysis.

39:32Anthony Scaramucci:And it's interesting because I've had conservatives say to me, and actually you see conservatives in the Senate, which is why John Thune doesn't have the votes for this, who have said to me exactly what you've just said, that they actually quite like the idea of states asking for voter IDs. That's not that controversial. But they hate the idea of the federal government taking over the election process because, as one conservative said to me, look, what happens when AOC becomes president and we've just handed the election process to somebody who's on the far left of the political spectrum, that would come back to bite conservatives in the face.

40:12Anthony Scaramucci:And they, especially at a time, I think, when you've got the firewalls broken down because actually who would run these elections? It would be the Department of Justice who would run the elections. Well, at the moment, the Department of Justice, as you've said, is the Trump family law firm. So effectively, it means Donald Trump runs the election. So when you really have the walls breaking down between the DOJ and the White House, federalizing the elections and giving control of the elections to the Department of Justice becomes even more precarious in terms of protecting a real free and fair vote.

40:43Anthony Scaramucci:And anyway, as all of these Republicans know, Republicans aren't going to be in control forever. They know that. I mean, they're looking at the prospect now, right, Anthony? What is it? There's just a new poll, a new YouGov poll come out suggesting that Donald Trump's disapproval rating is 60%. They know that the midterms are looking chronically bad for them. At the moment, they're looking at the prospect of the House being taken, of Donald Trump being impeached, of a fairly sympathetic Senate. and I've been told there are 10 Republican senators at least who would vote to convict Donald Trump in an impeachment trial in the Senate.

41:21Anthony Scaramucci:They hate him so much and what he has made them do. They hated Greenland. They hated the tariffs. They hate this war that the White House is aware of the fact that if it came to an impeachment, Donald Trump could lose and he could lose in the Senate as well, even if the Republicans keep control of it potentially, that there are enough Republicans who really hate him that he would face a very unfriendly Senate if it came to a prosecution. And I think that's what this is about.

41:49Katty Kay:Katie, before we go, get inside the melon of the orange man, okay? I mean, it's probably orange, not gray matter. Get inside the orange matter and tell me what - You usually have this lovely job.

42:04Anthony Scaramucci:No, please. You're handing over the kind of - No, no, no, no, please. The pick and chisel and the torch, you're handing it over to me.

42:09Katty Kay:than me. You're more objective than me. I have been biased by smelling the guy, okay? You probably have smelled him less than me. So be objective here. Get inside his head and tell me he's got the lowest approval ratings now through, I mean, come on, it's unbelievable, through Herbert Hoover, I mean, 100-year low net approval ratings. So go ahead. What's he doing? Talk to me.

42:36Anthony Scaramucci:So he's impatient. He's frustrated. He wants this SAVE Act passed. He's also getting in his own way, because the easiest way to make sure the Republicans win the Senate and he avoids the prospect of a trial is to endorse John Cornyn. But he's mad at John Cornyn because John Cornyn said that the 2020 election was not stolen. So he's still mad at John Cornyn, so he won't endorse him, which means that actually the Republicans might well lose the Senate. So he is getting in his own way. He could build a coalition for the SAVE Act. He could have built a coalition for Iran. He could have been patient in the process of attacks on Iran, but he's so impatient that he risks damaging his own legacy.

43:32Anthony Scaramucci:And I think that's what he is. He's bubbling up with impatience right now. There's a lot of heat in that brain. I'm going to get out of the brain because it's hot and, you know, frustrated and angry in there right now.

43:45Katty Kay:There's a lot of room in there, though. I'm coming out. I mean, there's a lot of room. I mean, you know, it's spacious in there. You know, you're not cramped. You know, there's not a lot going on. All right. So, but Cady, there is one thing when you look inside the brain, as we did in episode four of our Trump special for the founding members, there is one thing, okay? He abides by self-serving. So when you're walking around in the orange matter, all you're seeing are blinking lights. How is this going to serve me? How is this going to enrich me? How is this going to make me look? And I just would encourage people to tune into episode four of our founding member special on Trump because everything is there.

44:30Katty Kay:It is like your Trump decoder ring to understand where he's going, what he's thinking, how he has been so successful at fighting the culture war, but also how he's in trouble here and how he overplayed his hand as it relates to this Iranian war.

44:51Anthony Scaramucci:Do sign up at the rest is politics us.com to become a founding member. You can get this week's episode, but you can go back as well and listen to the whole series. We had fun making it. And I have to say, I'm so glad we did it right now, because I think it gives all of us, as you said, Anthony, a way to understand what Donald Trump is going through now and what is thinking right now because in some ways he hasn't changed uh right since he was a young buck in new york in the 1980s uh we hope you enjoyed listening to the show we will be back of course next week uh with more on all the craziness that is happening in this town see you guys next week