170. Trump Backs Down on Iran Threats - What Next?

11:43Katty Kay:See, Katty, I'm going to push back for a second and ask you the following question. The Israelis are very smart. The Mossad is very smart. Did they though, or was that a big fib to the Americans? And that was a big buy-in for Trump. I mean, in other words, you probably can't revolt. They don't have the arms. You can't smuggle the arms into a surveillance state like that. And even though 80, 85 % of the people don't like the regime, you're really not going to be able to go after the RGC who's killing tens of thousands of protesters at whim. And you and I know, and we've reported on this, they were hiring Iraqi mercenaries to come in because some of the army officials didn't want to kill their own citizens.

12:22Katty Kay:So the Israelis knew this. I mean, I'm wondering if there was some misinformation.

12:27Anthony Scaramucci:I've been told that that reporting is very accurate from people in Israel who were formerly in Israeli intelligence that actually it is likely that the head of Mossad went to Bibi and said, we think that the regime is close to collapse and we need to give it a nudge.

12:42Katty Kay:Okay. So they got it wrong. You think they got it flat out wrong?

12:45Anthony Scaramucci:I think they got it wrong, but I think they got a whole load of other things wrong. I remember a conversation I had recently with Senator Angus King, actually in the context of Ukraine, but how the American military is formidable. We've seen that. And American intelligence can be very good, but it's not very good on analysis around a country's will to fight. They got it wrong in Afghanistan. They overestimated the Afghan army's will to fight. They got it wrong in Ukraine. They underestimated the Ukrainians' will to fight. And now they've got it wrong again in Iran, where they've underestimated the Iranian government's will and ability to carry on inflicting pain on two great militaries.

13:28Anthony Scaramucci:And where is the supreme leader? How much do we know about the state of his health? How are they managing to launch these missiles? How much more drone capacity do they have? How deep is the uranium? If the Americans went on to CARG, how much planning has there been for oil smoke attacks that would harm American soldiers. The ability of the Iranian regime to respond for three weeks, the fact that the Iranian people have not risen up for the last three weeks and look unlikely to do so, I think also generates a whole load of other questions about how good American and Israeli intelligence really is.

14:06Anthony Scaramucci:You can have the city wired, it doesn't mean you necessarily understand everything. And that, if I was sitting with Donald Trump in the situation room as he game plans the next three weeks, I think that would be a big factor. He's got to know what he knows, but he also has to know what he doesn't know. And I'm not sure he knows that. Maybe because he's not interested, Anthony, but at some point he has to have a come to Jesus moment about what he doesn't know in order to get the best possible off-ramp that there is. Right?

14:34Katty Kay:Let me just chime in here from a Wall Street perspective because when I was calling around And just so you know, I didn't really talk to Mark Rutter's trainer.

14:44Anthony Scaramucci:Oh, didn't you? I thought he had you on speed dial.

14:46Katty Kay:No, that was a little bit of fake news on our podcast. But I did call around, talk to a lot of my buddies on Wall Street. And so the most probably, this is how Wall Street's reading the situation. The most probable outcome is a mild taco situation where we retreat, we de-escalate, and we declare this a cosmetic victory that the Iranians have been degraded, etc. I think he's going to say that the nuclear program was set back, the Navy has eliminated, all of that stuff.

15:18Anthony Scaramucci:The kinds of things he said over the weekend.

15:20Katty Kay:Yeah, exactly. But I think what's going to happen, which is something I want you to react to, and this is what my buddies on Wall Street think, is that the Saudis are going to lead a regional reconstruction initiative with capital flowing back into Iran. No one's going to call it reparations, but the Saudis are going to say, okay, we're going to use our infrastructure funds and our investment funds to help rebuild. We've got to get the straight open. It maybe doesn't fully reopen on dollar terms, which is a weakness for the Americans. Okay, they've been selling oil through the straight using yuan-denominated transactions.

15:56Katty Kay:Mm-hmm. But I think that there's a moment here, Caddy, and I hate to say this, and I want you to react to it, where America's standing in the region has been weakened on a number of different fronts. And so, I'm not saying we're a paper tiger, because obviously, we've got the strongest military. But in terms of how we can use the military in the region, once again, we're not getting to the exact mission. objectives that we would like. And you say what?

16:29Anthony Scaramucci:Well, I think at the moment, Anthony, here we are, whatever it is, three weeks in, right? It's certainly the case that you have to distinguish between battles and wars, and America can win battles, but it hasn't won the war. And this is where I think it's interesting what you and I are both hearing from the region, which is a fear that America will start this but not finish it. They didn't want them to start it, but now they're worried they won't finish it because of America's own pain points. And when I say that Donald Trump has revealed his hand, I mean, maybe he's just playing the markets, but he's certainly shown the Iranians something.

17:08Anthony Scaramucci:He's given the Iranians information about where his pain point is, and they now have leverage over that. And the region recognizes that. I mean, the asymmetry of how much damage Iran is able to cause given how degraded its military is compared to the might of the American and the Israeli militaries and how little pain both the White House and the American public are prepared to suffer. And this is something other countries have known since Vietnam, right? That there's not much tolerance here for that. And that is why America looks diminished. I mean, that was why for so long after Vietnam, America didn't want to go into other conflicts, because it didn't want to look diminished around the world in the way that it had been.

17:56Anthony Scaramucci:And I think if Donald Trump does what you're suggesting, which is some sort of fudge now, and calls it a victory in all caps with bad punctuation and bad grammar and bad spelling on his truth social, how many people, Anthony, are going to believe that it's a victory just because it's in all caps?

18:16Katty Kay:Zero. Oh, yeah, of course. I mean, 90 % of the Republicans are with him. I mean, it's a fascinating time in America where he can do whatever he wants and they're with him. We're four forever wars now. We're not four forever wars. He's the man that can move the goalposts on a lot of people.

18:31Anthony Scaramucci:But no one's going to believe that he's won. Nobody. The Republican Party is not going to believe he's won. The American public isn't going to believe he's won just because he says it. He's used to being able to say things and people buy it as true. But I don't think in this case, he's going to be able to do that anymore.

18:47Katty Kay:In September of 2024, he lost the debate to Kamala Harris. He came out of the debate. He went on Fox News and said he crushed her.

18:55Anthony Scaramucci:You and I have found that in our series, right? All through his history. He takes a loss and he turns it into a win. I'm just not, I think it will be harder this time around. Yeah. Don't you? I mean, do you think people are going to be sitting there saying, okay, he says it's a win and so it is a win?

19:08Katty Kay:So here's something I'm worried about. And again, I would like you to react to this. There was a great article in the New York Times front page Sunday paper about the divergence of goals between the Americans and the Israelis. And we'll put that of course in our newsletter, put a link to that in our newsletter. But the scenario that I'm the most worried about is where Netanyahu decides that the US drawdown window is closing and therefore he's got to move unilaterally and perhaps existentially. And perhaps they strike infrastructure, civilian infrastructure. They go super hard at the regime. And this leads to a accidental or maybe premeditated escalation of the situation.

19:51Katty Kay:And so then the hardliners really get entrenched. oil goes to 150 and this is out of the hands of Donald Trump. And so meaning Trump wants to taco, but Bibi Netanyahu does not want to taco. He wants to hit them harder. What do you think of that scenario, Kat? Is that likely or is that possible?

20:10Anthony Scaramucci:I've been skeptical of the idea that Donald Trump somehow surrendered agency over this at the start of the war to Bibi Netanyahu and that Netanyahu came into the White House, what, and strong-armed Donald Trump. I don't really buy that. I do think that as far as I know, and I'm told, the New York Times reporting that Mossad presented an option which was attractive to Netanyahu and Trump of regime change being possible. I think that's true. But in the end, Trump decided to do this. And Trump has shown, I mean, he is the one that said to Netanyahu, okay, you know, no mass on some of the strikes that you're doing around energy installations, both in Iran and on South Paz.

20:56Anthony Scaramucci:Now, he says he didn't know about the attack on South Paz. He did, but he has said to them, you don't do it anymore. And then, and the Israelis have listened. Do the Israelis and the Americans have different objectives here? Does Netanyahu and Trump have different objectives? Yes, they have different objectives. But I do think that Trump still has, if he wants to exercise it, as he showed over Gaza in a way that Joe Biden didn't show, he has clout there. And if I was sitting in Israel, I would be very worried about the fact that Joe Kent, the official from the National Intelligence Agency who stepped down, is on a PR tour of MAGA World, and not even just MAGA World, of the Washington Post and is being interviewed everywhere with a message that is very anti-Israeli.

21:45Anthony Scaramucci:If I was in the Israeli government, I would think that would concern me that he is getting so much traction in the country and that Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens and Megyn Kelly are just waiting to blame Bibi Netanyahu, are already blaming Bibi Netanyahu for this war because they don't want to blame Donald Trump. But I don't see a world where Donald Trump couldn't control or contain Israel if he wanted to. Do you think he could be in a position where he says, no, we are stopping now. We are de-escalating. The military campaign is over. We've done a deal to get the Straits of Hormuz open and Israel carries on with its military campaign.

22:26Anthony Scaramucci:Yeah, I think it's a risk.

22:27Katty Kay:I think Netanyahu wants to stay out of jail. He knows that the war keeps him in power. I think he's played a hand very aggressively in Gaza as it related to Hamas. and I think he feels like this could be his last opportunity to do systemic damage to the Republic of Iran. And so I think it's a risk. I don't think if you're sitting in the situation room with Donald Trump, you can't say that that is not a risk and someone's got to get to the Israelis and say, hey, calm down. There's another super nuanced opportunity here, caddy that I just want to address for people. It would require a lot of diplomatic sophistication and perhaps even some domestic political courage by the president.

23:13Katty Kay:And that would be to acknowledge even indirectly that the straight access is both a financial and a military issue. And that guess what? We're better off with a diplomatic solution. Okay. Now this would also make the Democrats laugh because they would say, well, well, that's exactly what Obama was providing for the world in 2015 and 16. And oh, by the way, you're making fun of the pallets of cash, 1.3 billion, but you just gave them a$14 billion benefit by unsanctioning their oil.

23:47Anthony Scaramucci:The irony is not lost on any Democrats.

23:49Katty Kay:But I want to say this to people because I want them to really listen to how important it would be to have the right type of leadership in America. Because if you could get to the table and somebody like Donald Trump, who was a quote-unquote dealmaker, could decide that a negotiated settlement is a better political story than a military withdrawal, okay? Which, again, is not impossible. And you got the Saudis involved and you said, okay, we're going to have a financial agreement, not going to call it reparations. We're going to open the strait. we're going to sideline the militarism of the israelis because we're going to get access to the uranium in exchange for all of this your regime is going to stay we're going to get access to the uranium because it's in your constitution that you want to kill people and we can't let you do that and we'll bring you you're bringing your oil back onto the market and again i'm not saying that that's going to happen caddy because of the way trump's ego is and his behavior but i'm saying

24:50Anthony Scaramucci:Well, and also you've got another factor there, which is, did the Iranians agree to this, right? How much can the Iranians extract for doing that deal? Because they feel they're winning this at the moment just by the fact that it's still going on.

25:02Katty Kay:Yeah, and also don't underestimate the Russians here. You know, the Russian variable is underappreciated by many. Russians are currently benefiting enormously, Caddy, from the elevated oil prices. And guess what? They have every incentive to keep the current temperature up because it's distracting people from the Ukrainian war, and it's also giving them a lot of money in bolstering their treasury. So, you know, Russia and China are involved here. I think China, frankly, has been the most disciplined actor. If we were just looking at this, they've got the maximum benefit, and they're maintaining maximum deniability.

25:38Anthony Scaramucci:Okay, we're going to take a break and come back and talk about the attack on Diego Garcia. Anthony and I have slightly different points of view on this about how significant it is and is this the thing, as the Israelis are suggesting, that is a game changer and could get Europe more involved in this conflict?

25:58Katty Kay:Hello, welcome back. So, Cady, let's talk about Diego Garcia and I'd like you to tell people what's going on there, what your opinion is, and then I'd like to give my opinion.

26:09Anthony Scaramucci:Okay. So, there was an attempted targeting of Diego Garcia. It's a joint US-UK military base. Long way away, down in the Pacific, two ballistic missiles were fired towards the base. One of the missiles failed mid-flight. The other one was intercepted by American interceptors. It's a target because it is home to almost 2 ,500 American personnel. It has supported US military operations right from the Vietnam War all the way through Iraq and Afghanistan. It's incredibly well located. So the question is, the two things that I think we should talk about in terms of this attack is, one, it shows that Iran has missiles that can travel a long way.

26:55Anthony Scaramucci:Diego Garcia is 4 ,000 kilometers. For those of you still living in miles time, that is 2 ,500 miles in America from Iran. Iran had only ever fessed up to having missiles that would go half that distance. 4 ,000 kilometers puts Paris, London, Berlin, you name it, Vienna, all in reach of a missile attack from Tehran. And that's why people were interested in this. Since the attack on Diego Garcia, Keir Starmer has said that there would be more access to UK bases to support this operation, but they're not getting more involved than that. It's just a question of having some more access to bases. And the Israelis have come out and said, basically, that this makes Europe much more vulnerable and Europe needs to wake up to the threat from Iran.

27:54Anthony Scaramucci:That is where we are today. This attack happened on Friday, by the way, overnight Friday. But you were texting me over the weekend to say that you thought this was very important.

28:03Katty Kay:I do, but I want to go to your thoughts and your reporting. So the Europeans are like, that's not a big deal. It may not even have been the Iranians. Rudder said he wasn't sure if that was Iranian missiles.

28:15Anthony Scaramucci:Rudder's trainer is not happy with it. Okay. So after you texted me, I reached out to a few people in Israel and in Europe. I reached out to the Brits too, but I didn't get much from them.

28:28Katty Kay:And Kadi, not to interrupt, but the Israelis say it happened. the Iranians say that it was a false flag and it came from Israel. So there's a lot of disinformation.

28:36Anthony Scaramucci:Yes, there is some confusion. Most people seem to think these were Iranian missiles, but there's some confusion about how old they were and whether they were modified missiles that actually would not have much chance of ever reaching a target. So military people are still trying to assess what the actual missiles are. What I've heard from Europeans is that there are a lot of questions about the age and the qualities of these particular missiles, and that it does add energy to a debate about procurement, defense procurement in Europe, that Europe is weak on air defense systems, and that this will increase demand for air defense systems because they have to wake up to the idea that there could be a threat.

29:22Anthony Scaramucci:But I was told pretty firmly by, I spoke to about three or four people who understand Europe and Iran and the US who told me that this single event won't change the European calculus on how much more to get involved or not in this war, because it's only a single event and because the domestic politics of getting involved in this war are just too toxic. And this one attack is not going to change that. So the one thing I do think we should look at is it was that tweet from Eyal Zemir, Israel's military chief, claimed these missiles were not intended to hit Israel. Their range reaches the capitals of Europe, Berlin, Paris, and Rome were all within direct threat range.

30:10Anthony Scaramucci:So are the Israelis trying to say to the Europeans, guys, you need to wake up because the Israelis would like to have more European involvement because they want this war to be expanded. They want it to go on. They want more support for Israel. They don't want to be the one shouldering the burden, but also they want this to continue. So I think there's a lot of questions about why the Israelis said that. I don't think there are many questions about whether this is going to be the thing that suddenly makes the French and the Germans and the Brits say, oh my God, we had a massive intelligence failure.

30:44Anthony Scaramucci:We're terrified that they might strike us next. And so we're going to get involved in this war in a more substantial way.

30:51Katty Kay:But are you hearing something different? No, it's not that I'm hearing something. I just, if I were them. So George Kennan, who was a very famous diplomat, he was the deputy ambassador in the Soviet Union during the Second World War shortly right after it. The architect of containment. He was the architect of containment and he wrote a 10 ,000 word cable. He signed it Mr. X. He said, we got a huge problem. These people are aggressive. They want to expand. This is the precursor to the Iron Curtain and the collapse of Eastern Europe into Soviet satellites, et cetera. And it was a big alarm bell that went off.

31:30Katty Kay:I think that people will think I'm exaggerating, but I don't think I'm exaggerating. This is an alarm bell that has to go off in NATO because NATO was originally designed to protect against Soviet aggression. And then in the 1990s, NATO was like, okay, this is great. Poland's now in NATO. It'll stop Russian tanks from rolling into Poland. And we're going to have some of the Baltic states, et cetera, be part of NATO. And we're going to sort of contain the Russian empire from reemerging again. but this is different now. Now you're fighting a potential theocracy in the Middle East that, again, is your sworn enemy.

32:07Katty Kay:And even if those missiles can't hit London, if I were in London and part of NATO, I'd be like, okay, one, how am I going to close this missile gap immediately? Number two, how are we going to harden the southern flank, which includes Turkey, Cyprus, and Italy? And then I would be like, we got to have an intelligence review of what we're doing because we're missing a lot, Gaddy. Because if you're right about the Mossad, and the Mossad got this wrong, they told Bibi and Trump they're going to collapse and there's going to be 85 % of the country is going to revolt and you're going to have full-on regime change.

32:42Katty Kay:I think we're getting a lot wrong.

32:44Anthony Scaramucci:The previous head of Mossad said the regime will not fall because of an outside strike. So there had even been a dispute between the heads of Mossad about the likelihood of this happening. I think you're right that this is going to prompt a look at procurement, but I don't think this is going to suddenly do perhaps what you had suggested, which is get suddenly all of the Europeans to think they have to be more involved in this particular war. I'm not seeing that at all, right?

33:19Katty Kay:Yeah, I accept that. I accept that the Europeans after being excoriated by Trump, Greenland being threatened.

33:26Anthony Scaramucci:Not just that. I think even aside from that, yes, I think those things have pissed them off. But I think even aside from that, they would not be interested in getting involved in this war.

33:38Katty Kay:I just think that this is a big deal, Cady. It's not, you know, Article 5 was for Poland and Eastern Europe. We ended up using it as it related to the war in Afghanistan. But I think the narrative has to change as it relates to what is going on in the Middle East. He's not going to get NATO's assistance and he doesn't deserve NATO's assistance. And I have said this publicly, even though I'm an American, I don't want NATO involved with this because I don't want this level of escalation because you're going to then bring in the Russians and the Chinese, and we're going to get the full-on World War III.

34:17Katty Kay:And I don't want my young children to have to go through World War III. I think we've got to be smarter and more diplomatic and more nuanced than that. But I'm just saying, if I were in NATO, if I were Mark Rutta, I'd be like, hey, we got to figure this out because they can reach us now. And we've also learned that some of the THAAD technology, the Patriot technology, the ABM technology with the cluster bombing and the hypersonic missiles, some of it is behind the curve. And also, you know, guess what? The Ukrainians may have better anti-drone technology than we do. And so a lot has been learned from this conflict.

35:01Katty Kay:And I'm just worried that we don't be nonchalant about this or negligent about what we've learned and start to take measures to be more defensive.

35:11Anthony Scaramucci:Okay, before we go, Anthony, I wanted to get your latest thinking on this Monday of where Donald Trump's head is, because I do think this is a consequential moment. And I've been told that this is a kind of pivot point in the war. Yes, he's delayed for five days, but really all he's done is put us back to where we were on Saturday. Do you think he is seriously contemplating putting American troops into Karg Island or the other three islands in the Strait or onto that northern shore? Or do you think he is now definitely looking for a route out that involves some sort of messy compromise with the Iranians and that he can still call victory and that he wants to do that within this five-day timeframe.

35:59Anthony Scaramucci:Is this the last week of the military campaign or do you think this still has a chance to escalate?

36:07Katty Kay:So I don't even think, there's one of the best memes ever on the internet, Sun Tzu, the art of war. They had Trump in like the garb. It said, Sun Trump, if I don't know what I'm doing, then the enemy doesn't know what I'm doing either. And it's true. He has no idea. Yeah. And that's the flummoxing part for the Pentagon and the diplomats and everything, is that he's such a narcissist that he's going one way and then he'll flip the script and go the other way because he wants everybody on their back heels like this. He wants everybody like this and he wants to be the guy that makes these decisions.

36:46Katty Kay:So I don't even think he knows directionally where he's going. What I don't like is what I said to you a few weeks back. I said, you know, the aircraft carriers are heading that way, he's going to strike Iran. Well, if you've got 4 ,400 Marines and the Marine Expeditionary Forces from two different assault carriers heading that way, he's likely going to use them. I would say it's 60 % chance.

37:11Anthony Scaramucci:Marines are a fighting force, they're not a peacekeeping force.

37:14Katty Kay:Yeah. And I would say there's 60 % chance that he uses them just to flex and show people that he can use them because that's his personality. Now, the flip side is he's under pressure and he loves money. And God only knows what's going on behind the scenes, who's calling Wyckoff and Kushner and saying, hey, we got a huge gravy train coming here. We set you a$400 million plane. Billions of dollars are going into your coffers from different things. We put a half a billion dollars into World Liberty Financial. We're building gigantic skyscrapers that no one needs, putting Trump's name on it, knock it off.

37:50Katty Kay:Because you like money more than you like serving the American people. So we'll have to see how all of that unfolds. That's the dilemma. Yeah. We have to see how all of that unfolds before we figure this out.

38:02Anthony Scaramucci:The two forces that are weighing on him is such a good way of putting it. And the great thing about Donald Trump is if you don't like what he's saying now, go and take a nap, chill out, come back in half an hour because he would have said something completely different. And that's the other thing we're learning during the course of this war. He is literally capable of saying two opposite things in an hour.

38:20Katty Kay:He loves money, Caddy, more than he loves war. These are some very smart people in the Gulf, and I guarantee they're finding a way to line his pocket right now, okay, to get him off of the target of too much of an escalation right now.

38:36Anthony Scaramucci:Except those, I'm also hearing those same people in the Gulf want this job done properly. Having started it, they want it done properly, whatever that means.

38:44Katty Kay:But what does that mean, Caddy? Because you have a 5 ,000-year-old civilization. These countries in the Gulf are 50 to 60 years old in terms of their sovereignty. And the Americans are 250 years old. And you're fighting people that believe in Hammurabi's code. okay so you know to me i wouldn't have done it you're in it find a negotiated peace to get out of it and de-escalate the situation because there's a tremendous amount of opportunity in the world for peace and prosperity and we got to be way more nuanced than we have been but the problem again is remember the narcissist in chief he is running things he's going to take people in lots of different directions before this is over.

39:33Anthony Scaramucci:Nuance, Donald Trump's superpower. Okay, we're going to leave it there, guys. We are back for our founding members. I really hope you enjoyed our series on what made Trump, Trump. We're going to have a question and answer session for our founding members this week, which we'll release on Wednesday, but it's all going to be focused on Trump and his relationship with the Clintons and the Trump money machine. And we're going to do a deep dive into some of Trump's relationships. So join us for that. If you'd like to become a founding member, you can sign up at the rest is politics, us.com. And we'll be back with more news and updates on the war later this week.

40:17Anthony Scaramucci:Thanks for joining us, everyone.

40:18Katty Kay:Thank you, guys. See you next week.

40:29TV Gelderland 2021