187. Trump and Xi Face Off: Who Won and Who Lost?

14:02Katty Kay:First of all, that would violate decades of entrenched Nixonian Mao strategic ambiguity related to Taiwan. Okay. And so that would be a violation of all of that. And then last piece of this, Caddy, because I know Mr. Trump reasonably well, President Trump reasonably well, the retelling has classical Trump tells. Okay. And just hear me out for a second. There's only one person that knows that, and you know who that That is me. I'm the only person. Okay. And I'm not doing his accent well. I got to get Steve Colbert for that. But that is a Trump set piece. Okay. That is the dramatic cool refusal.

14:49Katty Kay:He used nearly the same construction when he talks like you just said about Putin and Kim. So anyway, I don't think that happened. Now he's put them in a quandary because they're not going to deny. They probably want to. from their diplomatic core and from Xi himself, he probably wants to put out a statement, hey, MF, that did not happen because it really goes against the whole architecture of the way the Chinese are going at these things. So what is your reaction to that? I agree.

15:21Anthony Scaramucci:No, I completely agree with you. Okay, thank you. It's completely implausible.

15:25Katty Kay:I'm calling total BS on that.

15:27Anthony Scaramucci:These are very scripted events.

15:28Katty Kay:And that's embarrassing for the president and for the US, by the way.

15:31Anthony Scaramucci:I mean, but look, you know, he also came back on the plane and was berating a New York Times journalist and accusing him of treason. This is David Sanger, who has a very long history of covering international affairs. And he's basically saying any free press which questions our success in Iran is guilty of treason. I mean, that is an absurd statement. He also said that the New York Times subscriptions were failing. They're not. They're higher than they've ever been. So we know that even on the plane, he's saying things that aren't true, which makes it very difficult to get a real readout. Okay, let's go to a break and we'll be back with more on the trip.

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18:37Anthony Scaramucci:let's move on we discussed taiwan because i think the other important element and i think the way we judge the success or not of this trip diplomatically is going to be one does america resume long delayed large taiwan arms sales packages to taiwan after this they've been set aside for the visit does america resume those that's going to be worth watching guys because that suggests that Trump is sticking to the longstanding policy that Anthony is talking about. And I think the second bit of the test of this trip will be after the trip again, does China quietly behind the scenes use its influence on Iran to pressure Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz, which is what America would like it to do?

19:24Anthony Scaramucci:I'm actually pretty skeptical. I was talking to somebody who's been involved with negotiating with the Chinese before, and they don't think that they're going to actually lift much of a finger to help open the straits, partly because they're getting oil out through other means. We're seeing today the UAE is announcing that it's got other pipelines that it's expanding. We know the Iranians are also getting oil out, as we said earlier in the week on the podcast, through Pakistan and through Turkey. So I don't know that they're going to do much there. They may stop giving the Iranians some of the targeting data that the Iranians need for launching missiles and operating their interceptors.

20:07Anthony Scaramucci:That's possible. But do you think this changes the situation in Iran very much? I know you've long been advocating for Trump to go to the Chinese and say, help us out on the Iran situation. Do you think it's going to happen?

20:18Katty Kay:said that the Chinese would wait till the Americans are more heavily and more significantly damaged before they would do something like that. And I thought, and I have to admit, I have to grudgingly admit that you had two fantastic guests on this week. Because you know, I get jealous, Caddy Kay, when you bring on these people. Both Eugene and Michael did a very good job. Particularly the young people. But you said something on the podcast this week. And I said, wow, in addition to your usual insight, I think it's important to reemphasize that they are trucking, shipping, and rail freighting oil.

20:57Anthony Scaramucci:I learned that from an oil dealer. That's very interesting.

21:00Katty Kay:And I give you huge props for that because that's telling you why the Chinese don't have to open that strait anytime soon. They're finding ways to get at the oil, and they want to damage the president more. They want to damage the administration more. I think that they will do some things to help though because they want to be seen as a savior to the global economy for Europe and things like that. So it's just not going to happen quickly. But it's not – and it's certainly not going to happen on the timeframe that Trump wants that to happen on. But let me ask you this question. i told president xi that iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and he agreed okay is that a bullshit comment to katie k or you think that uh president xi agreed to that as well i i think the

21:55Anthony Scaramucci:chinese would be quite happy for iran not to have a nuclear weapon but i don't hear that exchange having happened exactly as the way the president said it was gonna happen that's bullshit detector Number two, more important is did they discuss China's nucleus? Did they discuss China's expansion of nuclear weapons? Because China has had a massive expansion of nuclear weapons of its own, which would be what it now has 600 nuclear weapons. And American intelligence reckoned that by 2035, it's going to equal US and Russia's nuclear arsenals. That would have actually been the more important conversation.

22:30Anthony Scaramucci:OK, did they have that conversation? I didn't hear any readouts of that. Maybe. I mean, I'm surprised President Trump has not flown back on the plane saying China has agreed not to expand its nuclear arsenal. That would have been interesting. Okay.

22:42Katty Kay:So I don't think they had that conversation, but that is not my bullshit detection number three. Okay, go on. So let me give you my bullshit detection number three. Fantastic trade deals. Is that a duck? Well, I'm channeling you. You were trying to make a dog sound and you sounded like a duck last week.

23:00Anthony Scaramucci:Yeah, that's true.

23:01Katty Kay:Fantastic trade deals, Caddy Kay. You think there were fantastic trade deals done, Caddy Kay?

23:08Anthony Scaramucci:I have not heard the Chinese, interestingly, specify any particular trade deals, which I think is in and of itself interesting because the Chinese would probably say what trade deals were done. Donald Trump went to China surrounded by American businessmen who all hope to get investments secured during this. But the only one that they've actually talked about is this one for Boeings, which we were anticipating. President Trump has said that in an interview, he said that they were going to buy 200 Boeing aircraft. The Chinese don't have the capability at the moment to build their own airliners, so they want to buy Boeings.

23:44Anthony Scaramucci:This has been long delayed as well. It looks like this is going to go ahead, but Boeing's share price was down, what, like 4 % this morning because the market had expected 500 planes to be bought. But I haven't seen any others. Maybe, oh, access to agricultural. Chinese are going to up their purchases of, looks like, of American agricultural products, which is a big deal. The three Bs, Boeing's beef and beans, soybeans. So it looks like they have said that. But on the other hand, you never quite know with the Chinese when they agree to a deal, does it actually mean the deal is going to go ahead?

24:18Anthony Scaramucci:Because in a previous trip there in 2017, Donald Trump thought that he had got big trade deals, announced big trade deals, and they didn't all materialize. So the announcement of big trade deals doesn't necessarily mean big trade deals. But there weren't very many announced this time around.

24:35Katty Kay:Despite the agreement they signed with the Trump administration, one, about agricultural purchases. purchases. They never made those agricultural purchases during the Biden administration. So a lot more, to quote Joe Biden, a lot more malarkey coming out of all this. But having said all that, I want the Americans and the Chinese to get along and I want there to be business and I want there to be a fruitful relationship. And I think it is very, very important for these two systems in these two countries to cohabitate peacefully and with prosperity on earth. And so for all those reasons, you want people getting together versus not getting together.

25:18Katty Kay:But let me talk about the hermit kingdom, which used to be China. My buddy Graydon Carter, who you know I have deep respect for, says to me, Anthony, are we now the hermit kingdom? And what is the answer to that, Gatti? Because we seem to have one ally now, which is Israel. That's our ally. The Europeans, he beats up on them regularly. And I think the Europeans have frankly had enough because I go back and forth to Europe quite regularly, meeting with a lot of leaders, spent some time with some government officials in Europe last week. that Europeans are not happy with the relationship with the Trump administration.

25:57Katty Kay:And you know what? They don't want to be an abused spouse. They're moving on and they're thinking about it differently the way Mark Carney is. So are we the new hermit kingdom? We just left the old hermit kingdom. Are we the new hermit kingdom?

26:09Anthony Scaramucci:I think diplomatically you can make that case. America has under the last, in the Trump administration this time around, has done a magnificent job of alienating allies, not just in Europe, but also in that area of the world, in Asia as well, alienating the Philippines, alienating Australia, alienating South Korea, alienating the Japanese, all because of the tariff policy and now because of the Iran war, which has jacked up energy prices enormously in that area of the world, even more than it has for Americans at the pump. But I do think that, I was reading the Wall Street Journal this morning, There is a case to be made that a lot of the world's still, the Chinese are catching up, but still a lot of the world's brain power still comes from the United States.

26:56Anthony Scaramucci:When Donald Trump turns up with the bosses of Nvidia and Apple and SpaceX, it is a sign still of America's flourishing intellectual capacity, an intellectual capacity that the world relies on more than ever because we are all becoming more technologically advanced and more technologically interconnected. You've got two Americas at the moment. You've got the America that the world wants a part of, which is America's Silicon Valley and tech giants and needs. And you've got the America, which is the diplomatically and strategically unreliable partner at the moment. And I think the question for whoever runs the White House next is, can it bring America's security commitments back online in a way that the two are more in harmony with each other?

27:49Anthony Scaramucci:And America once again becomes the country that people want to visit, want to do deals with, want to do business with, that is seen as a beacon of democracy and most critically rule of law so that countries want to invest in the country. And I think that's the question. It's a bifurcated country at the moment.

28:06Katty Kay:It is. And, Cady, I want to talk about something that was signed in 1960. Imagine that. Long time ago, during the Eisenhower administration. It was a US-Japan treaty of mutual cooperation. It is a binding alliance. And I'm going to read you a quote. In the territories under the administration of Japan, it would trigger a mutual defense obligation. The legal foundation of this is roughly US troops in the area would defend the Japanese in the event of an attack. In 1979, it's not a treaty, but it's the U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act. Okay. And this is something that we should also talk about. It's an old Sino-American mutual defense treaty, terminated in 1954, reestablished in 1979.

29:03Katty Kay:And this is the thing. It's never been formalized, but the Japanese have been told by the Americans over 62 years, there's a naval blockade of Taiwan. It's effectively a threat on democracies in the area. And so the US, in order to defend you pursuant to that treaty, would come in and interdict the blockade. Okay. Now, Donald J. Trump, even if he knows about all this, I'm assuming Marco Rubio knows about all this because he's our Secretary of State. What would Donald J. Trump actually do, Katty Kay? And remember, we have this security umbrella that's been well-documented and adhered to by every American president, Democrat and Republican, strategic ambiguity, et cetera.

29:55Katty Kay:Okay, go. Donald J. Trump, what does he do?

29:58Anthony Scaramucci:Well, Marco Rubio told NBC this week that it would be a, quote, a terrible mistake if China took Taiwan by force. So you do have the Secretary of State, you're right, understands this and puts down a marker, which was the most forceful comment that was made from the American side on defending Taiwan during the course of this week. But I don't think that Donald Trump was more ambiguous in his support for Taiwan and Trump won. He's even more ambiguous in his support for Taiwan and Trump too. Meanwhile, they've also had to move assets out of the region. They've depleted their supplies. I think the Chinese realize that Trump's commitment to defending Taiwan is a lot shakier than his predecessor's commitment.

30:42Anthony Scaramucci:And the Chinese smell some weakness there, which is why Xi can do the shot across the bowels that he did at the beginning of this trip.

30:52Katty Kay:But before we leave it, though, I don't think any of that's going to happen. I think she's too smart for all that. And I think he still thinks that he can get potentially. Koumintang went to visit him first time after 10 years. And I think he thinks he can get it politically without having to do any of that. That's what I think. But anyway.

31:09Anthony Scaramucci:Okay, we're going to leave it there. And we will be back on Monday, as usual. And don't forget, tickets for the tour are live now for general sale. We really hope to see you there. Atlanta, Toronto, Boston, New York, Washington, Minneapolis, and Chicago in October. We're excited. Buy some tickets and ask your questions. We'll answer them live during the shows. These are really fun for us and it'll be lovely to meet you all. Okay, guys, we'll see you Monday.

31:36Katty Kay:I don't know if any of you Goalhanger people miss me, but I missed all of you. I'll just leave you there.

31:41Anthony Scaramucci:It's so good to have you back of our resident James Bond villain. See you next week, guys.

31:55Katty Kay:Hi, this is Anthony Scaramucci from Goalhangers. The rest is Politics US.

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