198. Trump's War On Europe: No Way Back?

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0:38Anthony Scaramucci:Hello and welcome to The Rest is Politics US with me, Katty Kaye, and not Anthony Scaramucci, who is at a literary festival somewhere in the south of England. But I'm very lucky to be joined by Joe Scarborough, co-host of Morning Joe on MS Now, former representative from Florida. You've a lot of formers joe you've got a lot of republican former congressman former floridian you stack them up so american of you i just keep moving i'm quite happy with where i am right now exactly you know you need so funny you say so american of you we were passing by a car yesterday uh and there was a washington and lee sticker on there and you you you understand wnl like being from virginia yeah But I bet Meek and I were talking and I said, you know, I actually was going to school at W &L, but I decided law school decided to wait a year and ended up in Florida.

1:35And I said, I'm so glad I did, because now I can mock and ridicule people in the Trump administration and say, hey, I just went to Southern state schools. And even I understand dot, dot, dot. But it is funny how America has changed from this sort of WASPy thing to where somehow being from southern state schools, you know, has become a cachet. More of a thing. Yeah. Because the whole meritocracy thing.

2:03Anthony Scaramucci:And we can have a whole conversation about the fact that there is now more social mobility in the UK than there is in the United States on the 250th anniversary of the founding of your country. But we'll save that for another time. Okay, today we are going to talk about big movements in Europe. Donald Trump attacking various European leaders, one of whom has just left office. He's berated leaders from at least five different countries recently, piling it on Britain's Keir Starmer, as the Prime Minister says he is stepping down. Georgia Maloney, his most devoted European ally, has turned against him, which has won her massive plaudits back in Italy.

2:39Anthony Scaramucci:And Pete Hakeseth, meanwhile, accusing NATO countries of free riding and calling them shameful. We're going to get into all of that. And in the second half of the program, we'll look at Iran. Quite a bit of chaos over the weekend in Switzerland as Trump threatened to take over Iran if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened immediately. But as Vance left the peace talks this morning, he says that great progress has been made. Make of that what you will. You and I were on Morning Joe this morning, so we're just carrying on our conversation of six o 'clock this morning because why not? And you said something I thought was really interesting, and I wanted to get your take on it from a kind of American, somebody who watches British politics very closely, but from an American perspective and for our listeners both in the UK and in the US.

3:24Anthony Scaramucci:And you made the point that between 1979 and 2007, so basically three decades, there were three British prime ministers. And then since 2016, there have been six. So since Brexit 2016, there have been six British prime ministers. What was the point you were wanting to make? Why were you drawing that link? Well, because of the stability. I mean, you look at Thatcher from 79 to, I guess, 90 and John Major and then Tony Blair, you had remarkable stability there so much so that i went through high school college coached high school football wrote musicals went to law school went to congress came out of congress did scarborough country did morning joe had been you know i did all of that in the span of britain having three prime ministers three prime ministers and and now Or you might be able to get through breakfast and there's maybe two.

4:27Anthony Scaramucci:Exactly. And so and then since 2022, there have been four. And so as an Anglophile, it's, you know, it's it's deeply concerning to me, as I know it is to you as well. and for us you know looking over for for people looking at britain the question is if you're having this much chaos and you understood that brexit was such a colossal mistake why can't you just go back on and everybody talked to you says you just can't do it there was a a former cabinet member of um actually of kia starmas who said recently that social democracy has to be as much about a successful market economy as it is about an active state.

5:10Anthony Scaramucci:I mean, that could be a discussion with people like Mamdani that we could perhaps find ourselves having in the states, I think, coming up fairly soon, this balance between market forces and growth and also state interventions. I think that's - But Katty, Katty, can I just say, somebody taught me a valuable lesson in 2009, and it It was you when Barack Obama got elected president. Newsweek had a headline that said, we're all socialists now. I said, are we becoming socialists? And Katty Kay said, you Americans make terrible socialists. You focus on the work. You're obsessive. You will never be socialists.

5:53You don't remember saying that, but you are so right. You just walk down like Sixth Avenue in New York and you then walk down to Wall Street. You just, yeah, terrible socialists.

6:06Anthony Scaramucci:I think that is still true, that America basically doesn't have a socialist bone in its body. But I am looking at leaders like Mamdani and Plattner and wondering if there is something more of the social democracy or democratic socialist model that is creeping into Gen Z. the United States and they would do well perhaps to look at the fortunes of European leaders who have got to focus like heck on growth because you can't have one without the other. You can't deliver the services if you don't have the growth. Okay, if you were advising Joe Scarborough, I'm going to put you in the position of flying up to Manchester, England.

6:47Anthony Scaramucci:I know your team is Liverpool, but anyway, you're going to go to Manchester and you're going to sit down with Andy Burnham and you're going to play strategist and advise him on how to deal with his friends across the Atlantic Ocean. And I think there's two parts to this question because there's dealing with Donald Trump and let's deal with that first. And then there is also dealing with the United States and wherever the United States is going. But how would you advise the next prime minister of Britain? Because I think Keir Starmer came in. We felt he gave a kind of masterclass when he sat down and produced that letter that he gave to Donald Trump and said, okay, there's going to be a second unprecedented state visit for you.

7:26Anthony Scaramucci:And we all thought maybe he's playing it right. And now after the events of the weekend, and we can get into the Maloney stuff as well, I'm not sure that is the strategy. And you said something interesting about that on Morning Joe this morning, but what would you say to Andy Burnham on how to deal with Donald Trump, assuming he's the next prime minister? Right. But any sign of weakness is death. I remember trying to talk to Paul Ryan when he became Speaker. I'd known Paul since he was 22, 23 years old. He actually worked for me and a couple other people in the Republican House caucus. And I said to him, I said, hey, I've known Donald for 20 years.

8:00He hates weakness. You can't be seen as weak. He may push back hard on you, but if you're tough, he will respect you. And if you just keep your head down while he's insulting you, he will come back your way and he will tell people privately, hey, that Paul Ryan, He's a pretty tough guy. Paul, of course, said, well, I'm just interested in policy. And I just I love Paul. But I just shook my head going, well, Donald Trump's not interested in policy. I would say it's a real balancing act. You can flatter him if you want. I've I've never done that. I found flattery doesn't work with Donald Trump. Being straightforward without being hateful does at times help.

8:46And when he insults you, just let it roll off your back. But be tough. I think actually, though, the most important thing, and this can be very tricky for labor, I think is interesting. It's sort of a mirror of what Republicans face, the challenges they face in the midterms, and what Andy Burnham is going to face. Republicans are going to have to prove they actually care about working Americans. And they've done absolutely nothing to prove that. So they're going to have to get out of their comfort zone at one point and put more money into Medicaid, put more money into health care, put more money into the sort of things that Americans are struggling with so far right now.

9:26To Andy Burnham, it's just the opposite. I mean, Great Britain's future depends basically on what Alan Greenspan, God rest his soul, told Bill Clinton in 1993, and that is he was hostage to bond traders. Andy Burnham is his premiership is going to be hostage to whether people want to invest in Britain, whether they will keep investing in Britain, whether they will continue helping pay off that debt. And so he may have to be more pro-business, more pro-entrepreneurship than most of labor is going to be comfortable with him doing. But if he does that, it helps investment. I think it also helps him the short run with Donald Trump.

10:07Nothing. I mean, you can't buy Donald Trump. You can only rent him. And sometimes you can only rent him for 15 minutes. So but I will say if Trump goes after him, the correct response is seeing what Maloney has done. Yeah, because I guarantee you the fighting's going on and on. Donald Trump wants to see if she's going to back down. The fact that she's being praised so much means she's not going to back down. He respects that. And he will be far more likely to come back and have a good working relationship with Maloney, with her acting this way, rather than bowing down, kowtowing and apologizing to him.

10:47Anthony Scaramucci:Yeah, I was interested to see what you tweeted out. It's been just kind of fun to watch even the right-wing press in Italy with this big banner headline. I think we can say this because it's a podcast. Trump is an asshole. When you've got your far right that's been causing you problems back on side with you, undoubtedly it's helped Maloney's popular fortunes. And I think she then has realized that sucking up to Trump was never the smart play. And there have been Europeans all along. And I think this gets to how Europe and the UK handles the relationship more broadly, because there's one thing in what you say and tonally how you present yourself.

11:25Anthony Scaramucci:But I think actually you also have to be able to do a little bit what China did and show strength that is real strength, that is not just words, right? They had a card and they were prepared to play it and that card was rare earth minerals. Europe has cards too. And we are a huge market for American products, American pharmaceutical products in particular. NATO is a value to the United States security. But we've somehow, European leaders, and I think I would include Keir Starmer in this, have just been somehow terrified of showing strength to Donald Trump and threatening to play Donald Trump at his own game.

12:07Anthony Scaramucci:And it's not just the words. It's a sense of robustness in, okay, we're prepared to launch the nuclear trade cards if we need to. And I don't know that that's the right strategy. I think they should have looked at Beijing and seen what Beijing did. Another great example, if they want to look to a democratic leader, would be to see what Mark Carney's done in Canada. Donald Trump and Mark Carney aren't close friends, and Trump is still holding up a bridge, and he still wants to make Canada the 51st state. But Mark Carney has been tough without being gratuitously insulting. And again, people will be watching going, well, Trump insults him.

12:45Well, yeah, of course he does. He's a child. He's a five-year-old. That's what you have to understand about his taunts are the same taunts as a five-year-old. The best way to handle that is the way that Mark Carney handles it. Head down, move forward, and use that as an opportunity to say, like Maloney did, I'm not going to bow down to Donald Trump. And Italy is never going to bow down to Donald Trump, strengthens her at home. The same thing's going to happen, of course. And the same thing has happened with Carney, who came in on the barest of margins. But now, you know, a year in, people are talking about what a forceful leader he's become.

13:20And I will say, if you look at Donald Trump's relationship with Mom Donnie, he loves success. He loves winners. Mom Donnie's a winner. Mom, Donnie was asked if he still believed Donald Trump was a fascist in the Oval Office next to Donald Trump. And he started to answer them. You don't have to answer that. I'm fine. We're good. So the idea that you have to be weak and kowtow to Donald Trump, it doesn't work. It doesn't work for Republican congressmen or senators. It doesn't work for foreign leaders. So I would I would recommend that he be respectful, but also be tough. One other thing, too, that I just don't understand why I don't hear this more coming from European leaders.

14:05Don't understand why there isn't the realization that you're right. Europe does hold cards. I mean, you look at the GDP of the United States, 26, 27 trillion dollars. You look at the GDP of Europe, the EU, add the UK. It's about 26, 27 trillion dollars. The economies are equal. China's is beneath that. Russia's is$1.4 trillion. So the fact that Donald Trump continues to hedge his bets for some reason with Russia, with its$1.4,$1.5 trillion GDP, a GDP smaller than the size of Texas, and basically continue to tell Europe to F off is just, it's beyond me. And it's time, I think it's time for Europe to push back and say, wait a second, what's wrong with you?

14:57We have the opportunity standing shoulder to shoulder to dominate the world. You can't do it alone. And we're here ready to be your partners. But you're going to have to treat us as partners or else we'll look elsewhere.

15:09Anthony Scaramucci:Joe Scarborough's advice to Andy Burnham, call Georgia Maloney, perhaps. Yes, maybe so. Give her a ring. I thought the other point of Georgia Maloney, and I listened to the video, and I thought the thing, and everybody's made a big thing about how she says, I'll never beg and Italy never begs, but she made, I thought, the even more important point, which is what you've just said, is that Donald Trump treats his allies in this terrible way at the same time that he seems to accommodate his adversaries. And it was clear she was talking about Putin in that respect. And I think that is the question that Europeans always have about Donald Trump.

15:47Anthony Scaramucci:And they feel it's so much more existentially than Americans do because it's that much closer. And Maloney, who we were all worried when she was elected, was not going to be a supporter of Ukraine, has been a huge supporter of Ukraine. Unbelievable. You tweeted out that, and thanks to her for her support that she's given Ukraine. But let me play devil's advocate for a bit, which is that this is something Rory Stewart was saying on their live stream that they put out after Starmer resigned, is that the problem Europe faces, you mentioned about if Europe stands shoulder to shoulder. The problem is twofold.

16:23Anthony Scaramucci:Europe doesn't stand shoulder to shoulder. That's its inherent weakness. It is 27. The European Union is 27 different countries. But the other is that it is dependent still on the United States. We've spoken a lot on Morning Joe about the dependence on NATO, but it's also the UK is building an economy on American tech. Europe is building an economy on American artificial intelligence at the moment. We're increasing our dependence, you could argue, on America right now, right at the time that America looks like a less reliable ally. So, what do European leaders need to do, Joe? We know what they need to do on defense spending.

17:04Anthony Scaramucci:They've got it there and they're starting to do it. They've got to do a hell of a lot more coordination and that's going to be harder. But I think they also have to reckon with the idea, we've got to be able to stand up to America. It's got to be more than just words. How are we going to do it? And they seem to be moving. Europe seems to be moving in the right direction on defense issues. You know, it's something that Merkel said in Donald Trump's first term. We have to look east. We can't depend on the United States anymore. They have to use leverage. And I will say that While it's horrifying to even suggest this, the UAE is very open about the fact that they're going to deal with China when it's in their best interest.

17:45They'll deal with Russia when it's in their best interest. They'll deal with America when it's in their best interest. And unfortunately, I think Europe's going to have to move more in that direction until they have another president they can rely on. Because right now you do have in Donald Trump a president, as remarkable as it seems, that is drawn to dictators, that is drawn to autocrats. He loves Xi. He's very impressed by Xi. Of course, we all know how fond he is of Vladimir Putin. He loved Orban when Orban was in power. And there's this incredible quote, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan's new book of Donald Trump in 1990 asked about Tiananmen Square.

18:32And Trump compared Gorbachev unfavorably to the communist Chinese, said Gorbachev was weak. And that's why he's in trouble. But said the Chinese, they were strong. They were tough. They handled the student demonstrators the way you're supposed to handle those people. Strength always wins. And he was openly praising the communist Chinese leadership for cracking down on pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square. That is who Donald Trump was in 1990. That's who Donald Trump is today. And it seems to me that Europe's going to have to figure out how to respond to that. And the first thing they do, they do have to figure out how to become more united militarily, economically, in every other way.

19:24And they've got to figure out, again, the thing that Trump respects the most is money. Got to figure out how to make partnerships with AI firms and do whatever it takes to get some of those businesses, some of those entrepreneurs in Europe, in the UK.

19:40Anthony Scaramucci:God, it's such a different time, Joe, from when you were in Congress as a Republican in Congress in the mid-90s, which was kind of peak transatlantic cooperation. Right. And it's also just a radically different time than it was even in Trump's first term. In Trump's first term, he was focused on getting coal mines back open, steel mills back open. Now he's all in on AI. He's all in on Bitcoin. He's all in on the tech sector. And that's what drives him the most right now. And so that is the real challenge. And it's a real challenge that the UK and Europe not get left further and further behind in those areas, especially.

20:22Anthony Scaramucci:With Trump turning on his European allies and seemingly losing friends by the day, it's worth asking, is Donald Trump the loneliest president in American history? Well, fortunately, this is the subject of this week's newsletter, where historian Adam Smith dives into how Trump, by purging his administration of all of those dissenting, pesky voices, has isolated himself in a way we haven't seen in American history. To read this, sign up at therestispoliticsus.com and it'll be in your inbox on Wednesday. Okay, we're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about Iran and the latest out of Switzerland and what we make of these negotiations.

21:00Hey, sweetie, your mother showed me this Carvana thing for selling the car. I'm going to give it to try. Wish me luck. Me again. I put in the license plate. It gave me an offer. Unbelievable. Okay. I accepted the offer. They're picking it up Tuesday from the driveway. I haven't even left my chair. It's done. The car is gone. I'm holding a check. Anyway, Carvana, give it a whirl. Love ya.

21:23Anthony Scaramucci:So good, you'll want to leave a voicemail about it. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply.

21:35Anthony Scaramucci:Welcome back to The Rest is Politics US. Anthony is off today, but I'm back here with Joe Scarborough, host of Morning Joe, my favorite television show as it happens. Well, good. That's good to know. Every morning. Because you're on it. You know, I would even get up at four in the morning to come on your show. That is unbelievable that you do that. You have to be, again, in the words of Katty Kay, criminally insane to do that regularly. Well, you have to be. I do it twice a week. You do it five times a week. that is what makes you certifiable. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, no doubt about it. I mean, in doing it now, we're coming up on our 20th year.

22:13Yeah. The scar tissue accumulates. It's so funny. I'll be lying around in the afternoon going, oh, I'm so old. How did I get so old? And I go, oh, wait a second. I woke up at 4.30 this morning, tap dance for three or four hours on TV, did all these things after, and I've been doing it for 20 years. 20 years. Yeah. Can you believe that?

22:36Anthony Scaramucci:That's crazy. And it's not like there's nothing to talk about. So let's look at what's happening in Iran. What do you make of what's coming out of Iran, both in terms of, look, do we ever get beyond an MOU? Because what I'm hearing from people that follow Iran far more closely than I do is, this is what we're going to get. It's a page and a half. We're going to have this kind of bumpy ceasefire going forwards. There will never really be substantive negotiations. That is not a team that pays attention to technical detail and has much in the way of follow through historically when it comes to big strategy.

23:08Anthony Scaramucci:So this is probably all that we're going to get is a ceasefire that holds more or less well at various points. I think that's the best case scenario right now from what I see. Maybe this MOU can keep a ceasefire stitched together between Iran and the United States and keep the straight open. But moving forward to any nuclear deal, that's just never going to happen. And what I think a lot of people are concerned about in the region, certainly what I'm concerned about, what I would guess a lot of Republicans and some Democrats in Washington are worried about is the fact that Donald Trump will unfreeze about$100 billion dollars in funds that I doubt we'll ever get to the 300 billion dollars in reparations, which actually is more than Germany agreed to pay for at Versailles.

24:01I don't think we'll ever get that for, but there's no doubt Iran will be strengthened a great deal by this war. We'll have control over the strait. We'll have, be able to sell their oil without sanctions. We'll be able to rebuild their war machine. They're not going to go in and rebuild infrastructure quickly to help the people of Iran. They don't care about the people of Iran. And this idea that was floated out there that, well, if the Iranians will deal with us on nuclear, then we'll invest in their country, and their country can become an economic success story. The Mullahs don't care about that.

24:41The Revolutionary Guard doesn't care about that. They care about what Putin cares about, staying in power. So, I think you're right.