222. The Man Who Just Stood Between Trump and Economic Chaos

17 Sep 2026 · 46 min · 18 chapters

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In short

The episode argues the Federal Reserve has regained independence by raising rates despite Trump, but warns affordability and bond-market stress persist. It also claims U.S. policy in the Middle East is sidelining Saudi Arabia while secretly engaging Houthi leaders, escalating the Yemen/Red Sea conflict and threatening energy prices, U.S. credibility, and regional stability.

Guests/backgrounds

No named guests. Hosts are Katty Kay (reporting from Hong Kong) and Anthony Scaramucci (London book launch; former White House communications figure).

Key claims

Walsh (Fed Chair) is “safe” for now politically, but more hikes may come. Democrats are seen as communicating affordability without credible mechanisms (housing supply, deficit/interest-rate drivers). In the Middle East, the U.S. meeting with Houthis in Oman elevates them internationally; Trump’s “17D chess” approach risks a larger energy shock and Gulf ally vulnerability.

Notable examples

CPI at 4.2% (May); Trump’s call for rates at 1% or less; gas at $4.30/gallon; mortgage rates ~7%; Houthis attacking Saudi oil infrastructure; Saudi refusal to ship to Europe; “after Thanksgiving” predictions about Iran.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Fed's Response to Trump and Economic Challenges

0:00 to 0:44

Learn about the Fed's interest rate increase and its implications for the economy.

“The Federal Reserve has finally stood up to Trump.”

Fed's Response to Trump and Economic Challenges

0:47 to 1:43

Learn about the Fed's interest rate increase and its implications for the economy.

“It can all start just as the first line of a speech, but it sets in motion things that can reach far beyond Washington and unfold for years to come.”

Jet Lag and Concerns from Hong Kong

1:56 to 3:42

Katty shares her experiences in Hong Kong and concerns from investors about the US economy.

“I'm hearing a lot of concerns about the state of the US.”

Trumps Critique of the Fed's Interest Rates

3:42 to 5:26

Explore Trump's views on interest rates and the Fed's independence.

“Trump is saying that rates should be 1 % or less because we are the best credit in the world by far.”

Understanding Current Economic Confusion

5:26 to 6:50

Investigate the mixed signals from the US economy and the implications of high interest rates.

“And does this do enough, Anthony, to reassure people who are looking at this weird, and I want you to explain this to me because it's what I'm hearing here in Hong Kong is the US economy is so confusing at the moment.”

Impact of War and Tariffs on Affordability

6:50 to 8:44

Analyze how war and tariffs are impacting the affordability crisis in the US.

“But what we're leaving out of the analysis, Caddy, which is we have to explain to people is what the president did.”

Democrats' Messaging on Affordability

8:44 to 10:44

Discuss the Democratic Party's approach to messaging around affordability and economic issues.

“I actually don't know that that's a fair reading of Democratic candidates around the country.”

Policy Proposals from Democrats

10:44 to 12:18

Overview of proposed policies from Democrats and their effectiveness in addressing economic concerns.

“So let me ask a follow-up question on this.”

Role Play: Crafting an Economic Proposal

12:18 to 14:01

Engage in a role play to create a compelling economic proposal in a short format.

“He's calling it fighting for an affordable America agenda.”

Economic Proposals for Affordability

14:01 to 18:04

Discussion on creating effective economic proposals that appeal to voters.

“You have to come out with a economic proposal to address the question of affordability.”
Show all 18 chapters

Critique of Political Messaging

18:04 to 20:44

Analysis of political campaigning strategies and messaging effectiveness.

“that people buy as credible and implementable, given that we live in a hyper-partisan era.”

The Complexity of War in the Middle East

20:44 to 22:19

Exploration of the implications of U.S. military actions and their consequences in the Middle East.

“Strategic struggle between Britain and Russia.”

The Role of Allies and International Relations

22:19 to 28:00

Discussion on the dynamics of U.S. alliances and the challenges of international diplomacy.

“problem with starting wars is that you do not know where they are going to go geographically, politically, economically.”

Trump's Economic Mindset and Global Supply Shifts

28:00 to 30:55

Explore Trump's mindset and the potential global economic impacts post-midterms.

“which is so surprising that I'm even saying that, they're going to be able to make money off this too because we're going to shift the direction of supply globally to the Western hemisphere, away from the Middle East.”

America's Credibility and Middle Eastern Alliances

30:55 to 33:10

Discuss the erosion of trust among U.S. allies in the Middle East under Trump.

“But we're in a position right now, I think, where the longer-term threat is that America's credibility as an ally is short.”

Iran's Economic Struggles and Potential Regime Change

33:10 to 37:10

Analyze Iran's economic conditions and the possibility of political change due to pressure.

“So, Cady, the big question, okay, and I want you to really think about it.”

China's Economic Rise and U.S. Trade Policies

37:10 to 42:00

Examine the implications of China's accession to the WTO and past U.S. trade policies.

“It's not going to put enough pressure on them to change the regime.”

The Impact of China's Economic Growth

42:00 to 43:55

Explore the implications of China's economic strategies on globalization and the U.S.

“the Chinese currency down because we're devaluing at a time where they're building these manufacturing centers.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:01Anthony Scaramucci:The Federal Reserve has finally stood up to Trump. For the first time in three years, it raised interest rates despite the president's protests. Not bad for Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, once written off as nothing more than Trump's sock puppet. But will it work? Can the Fed reign in a cost of living crisis and calm those bond markets?

0:19Katty Kay:And while the Republicans are crashing the economy, where are the Democrats, Katty? They need a plan. And I have a few ideas.

0:27Anthony Scaramucci:Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the U.S. has refused to back Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen while secretly meeting Houthi leaders. You heard that right. Washington sidelined a key ally in favor of a U.S.-designated terrorist group. Go figure. Why? Stay tuned to find out.

0:44Katty Kay:This episode is brought to you by eToro.

0:46Anthony Scaramucci:A tariff, a spending plan, a regulatory change. It can all start just as the first line of a speech, but it sets in motion things that can reach far beyond Washington and unfold for years to come.

0:59Katty Kay:That's right, Katty. Markets move on expectations, not just events. Investors are constantly weighing what a decision could mean for company sectors and the wider economy.

1:11Anthony Scaramucci:So eToro is an investing platform where you can access a wide range of markets and explore how political and economic developments could affect them.

1:21Katty Kay:You could also learn from the global community of investors and see how people around the world are interpreting the same news.

1:30Anthony Scaramucci:As with all investing, your capital is at risk. See etoro.com forward slash trip US for full terms.

1:43Anthony Scaramucci:Welcome to The Rest is Politics US. I'm Katty Kay.

1:47Katty Kay:And I'm Anthony Scaramucci. Katty, how are you there in Hong Kong?

1:51Anthony Scaramucci:I'm a little discombobulated, Anthony, I have to confess. I have no idea what time of day it is. I almost don't know what day it is. This jet lag is crazy. But it's interesting. It's always great to travel. It's always great to hear people. I'm hearing a lot of concerns about the state of the US. And actually, I'm hearing a lot of concerns behind the scenes, although the markets are going crazy on Wall Street. I'm actually hearing, surprisingly, quite a lot of concern from investors about the state of the US generally and the state of the US economy. So it's great to get out. I just, God, I wish I knew what day it was.

2:30Katty Kay:Well, I'll tell you what day it is for me,

2:31Anthony Scaramucci:caddy it's launch day look at that i've got book day caddy i'm i'm here in london peddling books like a traveling salesperson okay anthony i want to know why are you not out on the street corner why are you recording this now get out there i'm speaking for your publisher out on the street

2:47Katty Kay:corner with a pile of books i want you well the answer is my boss caddy k called me in for this podcast but i was out there with a plastic flower on my lapel shooting water at people from my lapel as I was sitting there saying, please go to the local bookstore and buy the book. But I appreciate your support on the book and also gall hangers. But I want to go to the Fed for a second because Trump tried to defend Warsh last night. I don't know if you saw that because you're in Hong Kong. He told one of the CNN journalists that, you know, Kevin called me. He wants to lower rates, but he's got a unanimous decision by the board.

3:21Katty Kay:And the board is really bad for America and they're really bad people. But Kevin's a good guy. Because in Trump's mind, I know how he thinks. He's got egg on his face in his mind. He wants the rates to be lower. But the United States caddy could never do what Trump is asking if they want to maintain their status as a reserve currency. Trump is saying that rates should be 1 % or less because we are the best credit in the world by far. That's literally a quote from him. But I just want to point out to everybody listening, you can't have core 3.3 % inflation inflation and have 1 % rates on your overnight yields.

4:02Katty Kay:Okay, that is not sustainable for a country. And that would break down the fabric of trust in our financial system, which is still the deepest, most liquid market in the world.

4:13Anthony Scaramucci:Yeah, I mean, that's basically what Kevin Walsh said, right? He gave a very brief press conference. He said, inflation is too high, I am going to have to do something about it. He hinted at the fact that there could be another rate raise coming later this year as well, which is what investors here in Hong Kong certainly expect there to be. I thought it was interesting. Two things. One, he didn't give Kevin Walsh a nickname, which always is a strange thing when Trump doesn't call you out with a nickname. Remember, too late Powell. Anyway, for the moment, Walsh seems to be on good ground. And I think it's because Walsh has played the politics of this much better than Jay Powell did.

4:48Anthony Scaramucci:Walsh lobbied, you and I know this, he fought hard for this job. He has wanted this job for a very long time. He lobbied Trump very well. He had a little bit kind of Mark Carney-esque. He's been very good at getting inside Trump's head. He signaled to Trump that this was coming. He gave Trump a bogeyman that he could fight against, which was the Board of Governors. So there was another enemy that Trump could call out here. He didn't have to call out Kevin Walsh, who after all, Trump had said is straight out of central casting. And I think for the moment Walsh is safe, the question I have is how many more raises before Trump turns on Walsh more ferociously?

5:26Anthony Scaramucci:And does this do enough, Anthony, to reassure people who are looking at this weird, and I want you to explain this to me because it's what I'm hearing here in Hong Kong is the US economy is so confusing at the moment. On the one hand, you have the equity markets going bananas, largely on the back of AI investment. And at the same time, despite this raise, real concerns about the longer term state of the US economy, namely the tariff policy, the deficit which keeps ballooning, the lack of competence people are talking about quite openly now, lack of competence around economic policy with Besant trying to buy up bonds in order to calm the bond markets.

6:07Anthony Scaramucci:So does this do enough? I guess it does enough, doesn't it, to reassure people that the Fed has some independence? And maybe that's the most you can expect.

6:16Katty Kay:It does send a signal to the bond market that he's on top of it. And what you don't want to have happen, the 10-year, which percent was really, did not want to go through 5%, is now over 5%. And now we're looking at expectation management. We don't want it to get to 5.5%. Just to remind people why that would be so important, interest rates are the physical gravity of financial assets. So the higher the rates are, usually the assets go down. But in addition to that, when borrowing costs get high, you're constraining the growth of American businesses. You're constraining CapEx spending. That would be the AI CapEx cycle boom that's helping the market, but also other elements of CapEx spending.

6:56Katty Kay:But what we're leaving out of the analysis, Caddy, which is we have to explain to people is what the president did. The war in combination with the tariffs has sent the affordability crisis to the moon.

7:10Anthony Scaramucci:You mean that crisis that's a hoax, that one, the affordability hoax?

7:14Katty Kay:The hoax and that gas prices are going to be down right after the midterms and all that other stuff. But just think about Basent is talking to the Congress, our Secretary of Treasury, and he's blaming the crisis on Joe Biden. And they're looking at him like, well, how many more years are you going to do that for your two years now into the Trump presidency? But I want to explain this quickly to people. CPI hit 4.2 % in May. That is a direct result of energy prices going up, Caddy. The war's cost in terms of the Treasury just writing checks is about$39 to$40 billion. That's the estimate. But you have another$150 or so billion of energy prices that now need to be absorbed by the Americans.

7:57Katty Kay:And that doesn't include what's going on here in the United Kingdom or around the world. but just hear me out for a second,$2 ,400 a year in additional spending on energy for the average American. That's your utility bill, their gas bill, et cetera. And this is the stuff that I am shocked by, Cady. And if you please push back and tell me differently, why are we not hearing from the Democrats? Why hasn't a Democrat got to a microphone with a wall board and said, okay, this is what the president's doing. He campaigned on affordability. The number one issue in the United States is affordability. And he just took the affordability crisis and exponentially made it worse.

8:39Katty Kay:And here's how he did it. Why are the Democrats so flat footed on this issue?

8:44Anthony Scaramucci:I actually don't know that that's a fair reading of Democratic candidates around the country. I mean, if you look at candidates like El Saeed, you look at candidates like Tallarico, you look at Roy Cooper, I don't hear a Democratic campaign ad at the moment that doesn't have the word affordability in flashing big red letters. I mean, that's why Trump is calling this a hoax, because they're saying that Democrats invented the word. So, I actually think Democrats have got on board. They've kind of abandoned what AOC calls woke one around identity issues, which was certainly the issue in the 2024 campaign.

9:22Anthony Scaramucci:And this time it's around class issues, which is another way of talking about affordability. And they're basically saying whenever they can, the fat cats are getting richer, but you are paying, and here are a couple of the numbers, you're paying$4.30 for your gas, which might sound like nothing per gallon to Europeans, but is a lot for Americans. Your mortgage rates are now at about 7%. So, the cost of your housing has got a lot more expensive. The cost of your car payment has got a lot more expensive. The cost of your groceries, the cost of your beef is up, whatever the White House wants to say.

9:58Anthony Scaramucci:It's why Tallarico is ahead in Texas at the moment. It's why Roy Cooper is ahead in North Carolina. It's why El Saeed is a little bit ahead in Michigan. It's why you've got these Democrats ahead. It's purely this issue of affordability. And I think it's the thing they are campaigning on the most. I'm hearing it in all of their campaign ads. You're not hearing them talk about it?

10:20Katty Kay:I don't know. I do hear it tepidly. If I look at the polling, okay, the Democratic Party favorability is still underwater by 12 points.

10:29Anthony Scaramucci:Right. But they are ahead of the Republicans when it comes to the economy, which is shocking, right?

10:34Katty Kay:They have an approval rating of the local cable or the IRS. I mean, they're not doing well in a situation like this. There's something wrong with their communication in my mind. So let me ask a follow-up question on this. So what policies are the Democrats putting forth? Yes, I'll accept what you're saying, that there are Democrats that have less of a profile than Donald Trump that are talking about the crisis, but what policies are they putting forth?

11:01Anthony Scaramucci:I think that's a really good question, because I hear them talking about affordability and that they will bring prices down, but I suspect the reason that you're pointing to Democrats' low approval ratings is that no one, apart from saying, okay, we are going to get out of the war in Iran and that will bring down gas prices. If you're on the Bernie Sanders wing of the political spectrum, you're talking about wealth taxes. If you're on the Mamdani wing of the political spectrum, you're talking about a luxury penthouse tax and that kind of old-fashioned redistributive policies, but I don't hear people buying that.

11:43Anthony Scaramucci:And I think that's why the approval ratings of both parties are particularly low because people are smart. They know that inflation is hard to come down from. Actually, if you listen to Kevin Walsh, I've spoken to Kevin Walsh about this several times before. What you really need to do is have the kinds of reforms that would shrink the American deficit and that would lead to lower interest rates, which would lead to lower prices. But good chances doing that because I'm not hearing a single candidate on the campaign trail at the moment talking about the kind of structural forms that the American economy actually needs.

12:17Anthony Scaramucci:Are you? I mean, that is 2012 talk.

12:20Katty Kay:That's the broader point. So there's so off message. Hakeem Jeffries actually has something. He's calling it fighting for an affordable America agenda. You know, he's talking about Lowering the cost of groceries doesn't say how. Lowering the cost of gas and housing, again, doesn't say how. It's mostly about ethics in tying down Donald Trump and providing guardrails against Donald Trump's corruption and his family's corruption. There's nothing in there that talks about an economic plan that can incentivize lower prices or an economic plan that can create more housing, more supply of housing, et cetera.

13:01Katty Kay:So I'm just making the point, guys, get it together. You've got a negative approval rating because you're not doing a good job communicating what you're going to do to fix the problem that the country is most worried about.

13:13Anthony Scaramucci:Okay, so let me make you, we're going to do some role play. We like a little bit of role play on the rest is politics US.

13:19Katty Kay:How tall am I? Am I tall in this?

Read the full transcript

13:20Anthony Scaramucci:Oh, I think you're Gavin Newsom. I think you've got Gavin Newsom hair. He's tall. I think you've got the hair. He's tall. I mean, you're kind of a Gavin Newsom mixed with a little bit of Rahm Emanuel because Rahm comes up with policy papers for everything. So I'm sure actually he does have several plans for addressing this because he likes his plans.

13:36Katty Kay:But he's so boring, Katty. Oh, my God. At least Newsom can pull a crowd.

13:40Anthony Scaramucci:You want policy papers. Rahm Emanuel has policy papers. I was listening to Pete Buttigieg actually over the weekend. He was in the last few days. He's been sounding pretty smart about this, too. You are now the Democratic communications advisor. In fact, no, let's make you the Democratic candidate for president.

13:55Katty Kay:I'm going to channel Newsom's hair. Okay, I haven't been to the colorist recently. There's a little bit of gray in there. Okay, I'm ready, Katty. Go ahead.

14:03Anthony Scaramucci:You have to come out with a economic proposal to address the question of affordability. But here's your challenge. This is where you get your bonus points. You have to make that proposal sing in a 30-second TikTok video. Go.

14:21Katty Kay:Guys, if you're making less than$100 ,000 a year, I'm going to take your earned income tax credit up so that you have enough money to afford your groceries and pay your rent. I know, by the way, if I end up getting some type of consumption-based tax in -

14:36Anthony Scaramucci:Basically, you get a tax deduction. That doesn't help the people are below$100 ,000, but -

14:40Katty Kay:No, it will. It will because they do get tax. They still, you're taking$13 ,000 away from somebody making$70 ,000. Give it back to them. Okay. And, oh, by the way, if I get a consumption tax put through to save on all the cheats. Oh, people up to$100 ,000.

14:57Anthony Scaramucci:I thought you said people over$100 ,000.

14:59Katty Kay:No, no, people up to$100 ,000. You're up to$100 ,000. We're going to give you all the money back on the taxes. So you can go buy the groceries and you can pay your rent. And, oh, by the way, if I can get a consumption tax put through, which will help me with the tax cheats and all the billionaires that are avoiding taxes, you're going to be absolved from that as well. And so I'm going to use tax policy and good incentive management to get you and your family back in the game.

15:22Anthony Scaramucci:And Mr. Candidate, how are you going to persuade the Republicans who are in opposition in Congress and who you will presumably need to pass some kind of legislation on this? Because you can't do this with an executive order. You have to pass legislation. How are you going to get them to come on board and help you out with this? Because they're not going to want to help you with anything.

15:42Katty Kay:Well, listen, young BBC journalists, let me teach you, Grasshopper, okay? The Democrats are the deficit social spenders. The Republicans are known for the tax cuts. And so I'm going to get some of them. I promise you through good campaigning and good messaging and phone calls into the Congress that there's going to be a good group with those people because they've stood for tax cuts as Ronald Reagan was in office. I'm going to get some of those people. And this is going to help them, by the way. You know what? This is a bipartisan move because they'll be able to go back to their districts and say, I cut taxes for the people that needed it most.

16:23Anthony Scaramucci:By what? What's that word? I haven't heard that word before. I haven't. You'll have to translate that for me. Bipartisan.

16:29Katty Kay:Yeah. It's not something that you're used to. I know that. I just think that the Democrats stopped running on price gouging and the release of the Epstein files, work on supply of housing, and work on putting more money into the pocketbook of the consumer that is really suffering.

16:44Anthony Scaramucci:That is an issue, a concrete issue that Democrats should be running on housing. And I know that Newsom and I know that some of the Democratic candidates have spoken about that. But the housing crunch, particularly for young Americans, is a very real thing. Deregulating the building industry to allow for more housing, I think, would be a popular proposition for many voters. I would like to hear more from Democratic candidates on that, by the way.

17:08Katty Kay:Oh, by the way, I'm going to negotiate an end to this stupid war. Trump's not going to be able to do it. we're going to be in a quagmire till the end of his term. And so when I get done, I'm going to get back to Oman or wherever I have to go and negotiate an end to this war. Because, you know, the Iranians are suffering too. See, Trump's playing chicken with them. He's hoping that the Iranian economy will blow to smithereens and the regime change will happen as a result of that economic revolution. But I think he'll be waiting a long time for that.

17:36Anthony Scaramucci:While you're at it, why not end a trade war with our closest partner in the North, which is vastly unpopular and which is driving up your prices. I mean, a modicum of competence around economic policy, I think, would probably be more popular.

17:51Katty Kay:You told me that I only had 30 seconds. I was dropping the bomb as fast as I could.

17:55Anthony Scaramucci:This is the challenge that candidates face at the moment. They have to have economic plans that will sell on TikTok that don't sound like old-fashioned political speak, that people buy as credible and implementable, given that we live in a hyper-partisan era. That's not an easy proposition for any candidate, whether you are the smartest candidate around or not. But I do think one thing that we haven't mentioned and that we were talking about doing as a segment for this week, but we spoke a lot about Russia last week, I do think it is worth Democrats pointing out the fact that Donald Trump's son had a wedding party.

18:32Anthony Scaramucci:They can call it an after party all they like. I've seen the pictures. There is a wedding cake and there is D and B, Don Jr. and Bettina, his wife, on the kind of DJ stand that was paid for by somebody who's been described to me as not just an oligarch, but an oligarch, oligarch, a real mate of Putin's. Do you remember when Barack Obama wearing a tan suit was a scandal? Here they are having their wedding paid for. We spoke about this last week, so we didn't particularly want to spend the whole episode on it.

19:01Katty Kay:But you know, I always say that, you know, come on, Barack Obama had his daughter's wedding paid for by the Russians, they would be going crazy on the poor guy. I don't know why they give such license to Trump. And I know we got to go to the break. But I want to say something about Warsh. I think it's very important here, Katie, he did the hardest thing that a Fed chair can do four months in. And so he's got a lot of credibility now with the marketplace. And the market's going to reward him for this. Now, remember, he's given a really good speech after the rate hike. He said, I am hawkish on inflation, but not on the economy.

19:40Katty Kay:And so I'm going to have a very fast trigger to lower rates if we can get out of this supply shock, the supply energy shock, i.e. hey, Mr. Trump, President Trump, do you want to end that war so that I can get energy prices back to$60,$70? Do you want to do that? Because if you do that, I can lower rates going into the first half of 2027.

20:02Anthony Scaramucci:Which is exactly what Donald Trump wants. I'd recommend everyone to read Mohamed El-Aryan's opinion piece in the New York Times. We'll put it in our newsletter this week. But it's a really good piece that lays out the different scenarios for the direction that the US economy is heading in. And if somebody tells you that they know which direction the economy is heading in, they don't because there are multiple scenarios, most of which revolve around uncertainty. Okay, we're going to take a break and come back and talk about the Houthis.

20:43Katty Kay:The Great Game. Strategic struggle between Britain and Russia. We assess Prime Minister with high confidence it was Russian. Holding the Russians accountable is World War 3.

21:00Anthony Scaramucci:They took down a British passenger jet containing 350 people.

21:03Katty Kay:Man in the Kremlin is playing, Alex. You've got to ask yourself, do you want to play or not? You're the Prime Minister. You've done nothing!

21:15Katty Kay:We would need to understand the policy context. All the relevant context will be structured as a framework today, and disseminated into an operation order, or frago. A frago that says to kill the president of Russia. Yes. New from Goalhanger. Who is going to be able to pull this off? You're my soldier, are you? Sergeant Tom McDuff.

21:41Anthony Scaramucci:Duffy!

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22:18Anthony Scaramucci:Welcome back to The Rest is Politics US where, Anthony, we have always maintained that the problem with starting wars is that you do not know where they are going to go geographically, politically, economically. And I think we have had proof of that in the last few days in the Middle East where a war that was started against Iran, a war of choice, it should be said, by the White House against the Iranians has now expanded effectively to another front with the Houthis in Yemen attacking the Saudis and the Saudi oil infrastructure and the Americans ending up saying to the Houthis, who have long been seen as a proxy for the Iranians, they're not the Iranians, but they have been seen as a proxy for the Iranians.

23:08Anthony Scaramucci:They have Iranian backing in Yemen. And the Americans basically saying to them at a meeting in the US embassy in Muscat, Oman, we are not going to retaliate against you. They could have put in brackets because we are overstretched in the Strait of Hormuz and we've already taken on the Iranians and that is enough. We have enough on our plate and we are spending millions on interceptors as the Iranians strike our bases in places like Jordan in the last few days. And the message to America's longtime ally and a very good friend of the president and a very good friend of the president's children, Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, when he went and he called Donald Trump and said, please, will you retaliate against the Houthis with strikes?

23:56Anthony Scaramucci:Reportedly, the message to Mohammed bin Salman was, no, we'll give you intelligence, but we are overstretched and you will have to deal with this one by yourself. So we're in an extraordinary situation, I think, in the Middle East where this conflict has expanded beyond ways that Donald Trump probably imagined when he launched those strikes back in February. The US, just by having this reported meeting with the Houthis at their embassy in Oman, have elevated the Houthis to being an international player rather than a kind of band of rabble rousers in Yemen. They've put at the table opposite them.

24:31Anthony Scaramucci:Anytime the Americans sit down with a group, whether it's Kim Jong-un or the Houthis, that elevates that group and gives them international standing. And the Houthis have not backed down on their demands to the Saudis to have control of various cities and ports. So, I see this as a win for the Houthis, but the biggest loser in all of this, apart from America's reputation with its allies, are all of those Gulf partners who are now looking at the United States and saying, we don't know who you're going to defend and who you're not going to defend and when, depending on your own situation. I think this is a very precarious moment for the Middle East, but also for America's reputation in that part of the world.

25:15Anthony Scaramucci:Why do you think MBS's pleas fell on deaf ears with his friend in the White House?

25:22Katty Kay:Well, because Trump does that to everybody. He gave the money to Jared Kushner, He gave money to Trump. He gave money to the foundation of Ivanka Trump. And he thought he understood Trump and he thought he was going to get help from Trump and Trump rebuffed him. But I want to go back because I really want to lay this out for everybody because Americans listening, somehow we never get this. So 9-11, Caddy, we're going to hit you. You're going to overreact. You'll spend$33 trillion in deficit spending and blow a hole in your empire. We did that. They understand us better than we understand them.

25:57Katty Kay:October the 7th, 2023, wait a minute, the Saudis are getting close to Netanyahu and the Israelis. They may actually have a diplomatic rapprochement with them and acknowledge Israel. Okay, Iran is going to send money to Hamas and let's decimate the Israelis. I'm not going to discuss whether or not yet Netanyahu knew about it or didn't or what happened there.

26:22Anthony Scaramucci:Well, the Israelis were also sending money to Hamas, by the way.

26:25Katty Kay:They were. They were. They thought they were propping up a political regime that was going to create some more stability. So now, but the Iranians win that argument because they want to destabilize that part of the Middle East. They do not want the Israelis tied to the Saudis. So they aggressively attack Israel. And then Netanyahu does exactly what Bush does. He wildly overreacts. He creates this humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Let's keep going. Okay, so now he goes to the White House and he says, well, these guys are the ones that started the fight with us. We're your ally. Help me decapitate these guys.

26:59Katty Kay:And oh, by the way, if we just decapitate them, it's going to be no problem. You'll have your Delce Rodriguez and you'll be signing a peace deal somewhere in the Red Sea and you'll get your long wanted Nobel Peace Prize. Okay. And so that goes completely haywire on them. And then this is the peace that Americans wake up. Let me just knock on this thing a little bit. Americans, are you there? Wake up, please. because the Houthis, now another state-sponsored terrorist of Iran, were going to shut down the Red Sea and bomb the pipeline so that we can economically cripple the Saudis, who are an ally of the United States.

27:36Katty Kay:And lo and behold, Trump doesn't step in. Now I'm going to tell you what Trump's telling people because like you, I'm jet-lagged and I was up all night last night talking to people in Washington and Trump is telling people, don't worry about this. This is 17D chess. It's okay that this went down. because we're going to pump oil from Venezuela. We're going to pump oil from the United States. And oh, by the way, even my most hated ally, Canada, which is so surprising that I'm even saying that, they're going to be able to make money off this too because we're going to shift the direction of supply globally to the Western hemisphere, away from the Middle East.

28:13Katty Kay:Ha, ha, ha. All these guys are going to lose the chest mass. We just have to wait till after the midterms. So that's what's going on in Trump's mind. and that's what's going on in the houthis mind and the iranians but remember this last but not least caddy there's a ceasefire in place between the americans and the houthis that existed in 2025 where by calling them they're not hitting american ships coming out of the red sea right

28:37Anthony Scaramucci:but they have said that they'll hit saudi ships coming out of the red sea and they said they would

28:41Katty Kay:hit israeli ships okay so so and does trump care about them okay let's say it rhetorically uh no He doesn't care about them. So he's the least trusted of the allies. If you're going to have an ally, the worst ally you could possibly have is Donald Trump because he doesn't give a shit about you and he'll do exactly what he wants to do whenever he wants to do it to serve his interests. But I'm going to tell you this is going to end in a nightmare, Kat. This will end in a nightmare. This will be$7.50 diesel by the end. In other words, unless the Americans cut the deal with the Canadians, which I predict they will, Unless the Americans create a rapprochement with the Iranians, we're going to have huge energy shock, a bigger energy shock than the one that we have right now.

29:27Katty Kay:And the Fed's not going to raise rates one more time, at least two or three more times over the next five or six months. Unless somebody rational, somebody normal steps into the thing that actually understands the situation and creates the peace.

29:41Anthony Scaramucci:The problem with Trump's scenario, on the Venezuela front at least, is that it's going to take a considerable amount of time for that oil to get out of Venezuela and be refined. It's not going to happen in a timeframe that is going to help out oil prices right now. The Saudis have just told the Europeans that they aren't going to be sending any more shipments to Europe at the moment because their pipeline was blown up to Yambu. Because they can't. because they can't because of the situation in the Suez, because of the Houthis. I have a lovely nephew who lives in Hong Kong. It was a pleasure to see him here for dinner last night, James.

30:17Anthony Scaramucci:And he was saying, look, our grocery prices have gone up. Everybody here is furious at the war because the price of rice has gone up, the price of bread has gone up, the price of everything has gone up in Asia. I don't think Americans quite understand that either. But I think the longer term damage beyond even this energy shock, I know that you and I have been talking about the prospect of a real energy shock coming. And every analyst, oil analyst I speak to keeps telling me, listen, if this carries on, we have drawn down strategic reserves to their lowest level on record. We can't keep doing this.

30:49Anthony Scaramucci:There will be a big hike in energy prices, and it's going to come if we can't wrap this thing up. And now we've just expanded that thing. But we're in a position right now, I think, where the longer-term threat is that America's credibility as an ally is short. Yeah, maybe the Gulf states were stupid to think that they really liked the way that Trump did business. They understood that they could bypass all those pesky, annoying institutions like the National Security Agency and the State Department and all of these institutions that were the bedrock of American diplomacy that did things by a certain book and took into account history and geopolitics and knock on effects and actually the chessboard.

31:30Anthony Scaramucci:And they thought, this is great. We just have Donald Trump's cell phone number like every journalist in Washington. I have it, you have it, has Donald Trump's cell phone number, and we can just call him directly and bypass the NSA. And the State Department, well, guess what? What happens when you do that? You end up with a situation that you're in now with the Arab countries confronting a war that they didn't want, they didn't start, Iranian attacks that don't seem to be stopping against them and continue to be a threat, Houthis that are emboldened, energy infrastructure is now vulnerable, and an uncertainty about whether America is going to come to their defense.

32:10Anthony Scaramucci:after decades of assiduously courting those relationships that were not just built on oil transactions and arms transactions. That was an important part of it, but it wasn't just transactional. It was built on building confidence amongst those leaders and amongst whoever was in the White House, whatever party was in the White House. And that's what's shot here. Those countries may have thought they were better off with Donald Trump because they could call him directly. actually I think what the lesson for them and other allies is is that actually a system of institutions was better off than this slightly feudal system that we have at the moment right I mean if you're America's ally in the Middle East right now or you're in Seoul or you're in Taipei you are watching what happened this week with MBS calling the White House and getting a kind of oh sorry no answer sorry no answer from the White House call back again all our lines are occupied right now, right?

33:08Anthony Scaramucci:I mean, that's the problem here.

33:10Katty Kay:So, Cady, the big question, okay, and I want you to really think about it. Will the government of Iran tip over because of the economy? And just hear me out for a second. Trump is a very lucky guy. These numbers are staggering. Oil exports are down 85%. Inflation is through the roof, 67%. The October number for inflation actually was 80 to 90. So I'm just giving a blended one for the war. The regime is standing, but they are hurting. And the Israelis are telling Trump, listen, they're going to stop paying the security forces. They're running out of money in Iran. And when they stopped playing the security forces, the IRGC is going to flip.

33:58Katty Kay:Is that possible, Katya? Is Trump that lucky where that is possible? or will the Iranians be able to outlast Trump's insanity?

34:07Anthony Scaramucci:Given the situation that we are in now, if you are sitting in the situation room and the Israeli government is calling you with intelligence and advice, how much credibility are you giving that intelligence and advice? There has to be a question about it.

34:23Katty Kay:I'm with you, but if you're Donald Trump, remember, because this is a policy of one, and if Bibi's calling him and saying, hey, just hold on, we got the Mossad in there And it's about to blow up and the combination of economic misery now, plus the destruction from the war is going to lead to regime death. Okay. Now, I'm going to give you my opinion. I'd like to hear yours. I don't think so. I think these people are going to outlast that. Trump is telling people privately, because again, I was talking to people last night, that this is all going to happen by Thanksgiving. Just hang on. This whole thing is going to implode and I'm going to be the genius that looks right.

35:01Katty Kay:and by the way i will say this caddy i i want him to be right okay i despise trump i think it's pretty clear from this podcast how much i dislike him and how much damage he's done to the global society but i would like that regime to fall uh you know what i don't want to have happen is what i think some of the israelis want which is a failed state like syria i don't want that i want a secularization of that state and a reformation of that state and a rebirth and i that state economically aligned with us here in the West. I want that. But do you think that's possible?

35:32Anthony Scaramucci:I know what the White House is looking at. They're looking at the overland trucks. They're getting bogged down at the Iranian-Pakistani border. They can't get the oil out overland. They were getting oil out overland. They can't get the oil out through the Strait of Hormuz. They are being squeezed economically. Their tolerance for being squeezed is remarkably high. it was economic pressure that brought the iranians to the table in 2014 to negotiate the original jcpoa they now have an existential reason not to come to the table unless it was on their terms however because they've seen what's happened over the last six months so i don't know maybe trump's going to be lucky maybe this is all about to collapse and it's a house of cards but they seem to be hanging on despite their odds i just telling you what they're telling them And I know what they're looking at.

36:25Anthony Scaramucci:I know what the intel is that they're looking at.

36:27Katty Kay:When you hear Donald Trump say the midterms and blah, blah, blah, you know, remember there's also, uh, there's a floating supply that Iran still has out there that it is selling at a discount to China. When that floating supply is over, you're not going to be able to truck enough oil to China. And that's going to put a lot of economic pressure on Iran. So when we sit here in the West and we look at all of the mistakes and the misfortune that the president has had in the war, the Iranians are hurting too. And so now that's the gauntlet. That's the game of chicken. We'll have to see where it ends.

37:05Katty Kay:Now, I'll make a prediction here. I think this will put enough pressure on Iran to create a ceasefire and a break of this economic impasse. It's not going to put enough pressure on them to change the regime.

37:18Anthony Scaramucci:Which then gives them the continued ability, if you are in the Gulf region and you are the UAE or you're Kuwait or you're Qatar or Jordan, I think US bases then become very vulnerable because you have a continued ability. Clearly, once there is a ceasefire, what will the Iranians do? Exactly what they did during the brief MOU pause, they started to rebuild their missile infrastructure and their missile production. They'll start to do that again. And I think that leaves those Gulf allies very vulnerable. if there isn't some kind of significant regime change anyway.

37:49Katty Kay:Trump is also telling people there's no chance that the U.S. will rebuild those bases in those countries, in those Sunni countries. And so I don't know. I don't know what that means for America's footprint around the world.

38:01Anthony Scaramucci:You know one thing that it means? It means that if you are a country that has the option of going for a nuclear weapon, you will look at that more seriously today. If you're in Asia or if you're in the Middle East, than you would have done six months ago because you can no longer rely on the US security umbrella. And that makes the world a more dangerous place.

38:20Katty Kay:All right. In the immortal words of Donald Trump, we'll have to see what happens, Caddy Kay.

38:24Anthony Scaramucci:That's the good news, guys. But here's the really, really good news. If you want to know how we got into this mess and how we can get out of this mess, you need to tune into our new founding members miniseries, All the Wrong Moves. It's based on Anthony's incredible book. It's so good. It really does give you a roadmap forward as well as a glimpse into the past. The first episode came out this week where we discussed the fatal policy decisions that got America to the situation it's in now, specifically with reference to Donald Trump. Here's a clip. So you build the book, Anthony, around three catastrophic policy decisions.

39:03Anthony Scaramucci:And I want to talk about the first one. We've set the stage in the background and this sense of kind of mistrust that people have. We come out of the Cold War and America has won and been triumphant and everyone is buying into capitalism and pluralism and the American way of doing things. And there is a belief that the rest of the world will follow the example of the end of the Cold War, that if we open up trade to the rest of the world, it'll be like a bit like the extension of that kind of very early trading block in the United States at the beginning of its history around the American Revolution, that China essentially will follow the pattern of the Eastern European countries, that we could just bring them in as we have brought in Eastern Europe.

39:48Anthony Scaramucci:remember, the wall has just come down and this big Soviet bloc that no one could get into, suddenly it's accessible and they are developing judicial systems and rule of law and free trade agreements and allowing people access to capital in a way that we kind of thought had been impossible even perhaps five or 10 years beforehand. And so perhaps it's no surprise that policymakers who have just come out of that extraordinary moment of triumph and change in one communist block of the world, look around and they say to themselves, hey, it's happened in Eastern Europe. It could happen in China too.

40:23Anthony Scaramucci:And then we would all be free trading. And then there will be even more money for everybody. I'm playing devil's advocate here because that was the consensus in the 1990s. And that is when we get to the first catastrophic decision, which is what we talked about right at the beginning of this program, China's accession to the World Trade organization.

40:42Katty Kay:Katty, there's nothing like being young, smug, and arrogant, and then getting something completely wrong. But as you pointed out before we started this recording, it wasn't just me. It was The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times. The consensus thinking was the narrative that you just suggested. Again, I want to point this out to people. Richard Nixon, he goes to China. It's the winter of 1972. He's an anti-communist. He wants to have a rapprochement or a detente with them because he wants to check the Soviets. And he goes to China and he does a couple of things in China that people forget about, but we should mention it.

41:21Katty Kay:He allows Mao to link his renminbi, his currency, to the U.S. dollar caddy. This is super important because China is trying to figure itself out. They don't get there until Mao dies and Deng Xiaoping begins these capitalist reforms in the society. but they've linked themselves to the American currency. And so the Americans are deficit spenders. So they have to weaken their currency. If you really understand the way currency works, if you're in a manufacturing center and you're building big factories, your currency should strengthen Caddy. But the Americans allow the Chinese to link the currencies.

41:58Katty Kay:So we're pulling the Chinese currency down because we're devaluing at a time where they're building these manufacturing centers. So they have this wild explosion of growth. They get manufacturing plus devalued currency, and they're able to flood the West as a result of the introduction of the World Trade Organization powers. They come into the West as an emerging market with the same standing as, let's say, the Dominican Republic, where they can protect their markets with tariffs, and we have to allow their goods to come into our markets relatively unfettered. Okay, this is something Trump is right about.

42:36Katty Kay:Okay, we have to acknowledge that Trump was right that there was malpractice done. This catastrophic decision was to allow China in and then to not check them as they were growing at it.

42:49Anthony Scaramucci:So I think this is a really interesting moment to talk about Bill Clinton, because Bill Clinton, of course, child of the Cold War, comes out of that kind of consensus era. And he and George H.W. Bush, Reagan's successor, are basically agreed on globalization. Everybody is agreed on the globalization crusade. If you look at the 1992 election, there is George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, pretty much the Democrat and the Republican on the same page. The person who is interesting in that story is Ross Perot, the self-made billionaire who runs on an anti-globalization, sort of put broadly, platform and goes on in 1992 to win 20 percent of the popular vote.

43:33Anthony Scaramucci:But do either of the parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, which has just lost, do they turn around and say, oh, that's interesting. 20 percent of the American electorate has just voted for somebody who is opposed to China coming into the World Trade Organization and is opposed to this process of rapid globalization. They don't. To listen to the rest of the series, become a founding member at therestispoliticsus.com or follow the link in the description. That's it from us today. Thanks for listening, everybody.

44:07Katty Kay:Nothing else I can say after that. Have a great weekend, everybody.

44:10Anthony Scaramucci:Buy the book is what you're meant to say. Buy the book.

44:13Katty Kay:Thanks for the help with the book, Caddy Kay. Look at that, huh? Thank you. All the wrong moves. Out now.

44:18Anthony Scaramucci:Have a great weekend.

44:25Thank you.

From the publisher

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