31. JD Vance beats Tim Walz: The Battle for Vice President

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1:28Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates excludes Massachusetts.

1:36Hello and welcome to The Rest is Politics U.S. with me, Katty Kay. And I'm Anthony Scaramucci. We've just watched the two vice presidential nominees, J.D. Vance and Tim Woltz. They've been battling it out in their first and only television debate. It was about 90 minutes long. And since Donald Trump so far hasn't agreed to another round with Kamala Harris, it looks like this is going to be the last big opportunity for either of these campaigns to get their principles out there and make an impact before Election Day. We can talk later about how much impact we think the vice presidential debates have had in history and how much we think this one might have.

2:13I actually think this one might have more than it generally does. But look, I think my overarching impression was that J.D. Vance is a skilled debater, as we had expected. He showed up and decided to be Mr. Nice J.D. Vance and not the more aggressive, acerbic J.D. Vance that we've been seeing over the last few weeks. and Tim Walsh, who the campaign had already kind of put out there, is not as experienced as J.D. Vance in debating, seemed very nervous at the beginning, kind of mixed up quite a lot of his words, got better as the debate went on, but wasn't the kind of confident coach that we've been seeing in the rally.

2:53So I guess, you know, if you're going to put it colloquially, J.D. Vance was not the kind of Rottweiler that we've seen in television interviews and Tim Walsh wasn't the kind of folksy, charming, confident coach that we've been seeing in political rallies. So if this was just a purely a contest between these two, I think you'd have to give J.D. Vance the win on that one. Okay. So, I mean, what I love about doing this podcast with you is that it's objective. That could be the BBC journalist in you. I don't know. I wanted Waltz to win, but he did not win that debate. And so we have to be very objective as to why he didn't win that debate.

3:28So I'm just going to list off four quick things. And then I'd like to ask a few questions. He was very unfocused. He got very nervous. Also, he had a glare going. There was a side piece. Remember, if you're going to go into a debate on national television, it's not just what you're saying to the camera. It's where you're looking and how you're looking. Okay. Vice President Harris practiced all that. She was flawless in the silence and the body language piece of this. he looked lost. People are going to be mad at me, but he was not ready for the debate. He was not ready for the earnestness that Vance was presenting.

4:06There were four things that he did, I think, that were ridiculous. And whoever prepped him either didn't know how to prep them, or he didn't prepare for the debate. Because you have to be ready for the Tittumann Square question. Have to be ready for it. He spent 90 seconds in dead air, and you could feel screeching in the room, but he got better. He got better in the middle of the debate. He got better with gun control. He got better with healthcare. He got better with women's reproductive rights. He also got better. He did something that Donald Trump is not going to like. And that is, yeah, well, you're saying that, and I agree with you, but that's not what your top of the ticket candidate is saying.

4:48That's not what he's saying. And he split Vance three or four times. And I'm going to tell you that Vance did well enough for Trump to pretend that he liked it, but he really is not going to like it. Okay. And I'll say this before I ask you this question. Both of those guys did way better than Donald Trump did on September the 10th. So, but my question is, is J.D. Vance too young to be president of the United States or too young to be vice president? Yes. He's a terrific debater. If we were at the Yale debating Oxford or debating one of your fancy pants schools over there and he won the debate?

5:26Yes. But is he too young? Because that was my feeling looking at him. And then secondarily, what does Waltz do from here? Look, so I think a couple of things we're getting. Lots of people are already texting in, a lot of them not happy with our analysis, saying that Waltz definitely won it. I think that's a tricky one to argue, actually. I think there's a counter argument. I was texting all through this with a Republican congressperson, Democratic congressperson, and a Democratic strategist. And I was kind of had an ongoing text the whole way through this. And one of the strategists pointed out that although Walt came across as nervous, his kind of folksy manner may have actually been more appealing to audiences and seemed more human.

6:11And that kind of Vance had a kind of slight smirk about him. And maybe that gets to the youth thing that you're talking about when he was looking at Tim Walz and that he always had this kind of slight half smile about him. I think it's that J.D. Vance came into this debate deciding he was going to be disarmingly personable, which right from the beginning, by the way, he kind of thanked Tim Walz right at the top for being there. He thanked the moderators. He was very polite to the moderators. He wasn't rude to Tim Walz. I was really struck. One of the things that struck me was the number of times actually both of them agreed with each other and said, you know, I think you're right.

6:50It wasn't just that Tim Walz was trying to split J.D. Vance from Donald Trump. J.D. Vance was also trying to split Tim Walz from Kamala Harris at various points. And neither of them, I think, did a really good job of in those moments defending their principles. I mean, what is the point of a vice presidential debate? debate the point of a vice presidential debate is to be partly attack dog and partly defense right you've got to score goals but you've also got to defend your principle again and again and again this is about the top of the ticket americans vote on the top of the ticket they don't care really who's the vice president candace it was half the time they can't even remember who the vice presidential pick is so they're voting on the top of the ticket there's not going to be another presidential debate so in this one it was really important that these two really you know made the theory of the case, made the argument for the top of the ticket.

7:40And whenever one of them said, oh, I agree with you, or, you know, I agree with you, but I don't think the top of the ticket agrees with you. The onus was on both of them really to jump in and say, hold on a second, you know, that's not what Kamala Harris thinks on immigration, or that's not what Donald Trump thinks on the economy or whatever it was. And I don't think either of them actually did a great job of doing that. Listen, I wanted the guy to win. I'm a supporter of Walt. I've said that. I'm a supporter of Kamala Harris. Wanted him to win. He did not win that debate. If you want to pretend that he won the debate, that's fine.

8:15I know there'll be people in the spin room that will spin that he won the debate. He did not win that debate. The second thing, so first question, is he too young? And then the second question, have you ever seen The Dead Zone by Stephen King? do you remember that 1983 movie do you remember it i'd like to think i wasn't actually you know up for watching movies in 1983 i was i was so much younger than you remember yes you you you weren't born i was i was but but what i didn't like about van is he was almost had the overbite of perfect it was almost too robotic and when he said you know praise jesus or praise the lord or whatever it is.

8:56And listen, I'm a Catholic. And of course I praise Jesus, but it was, it was an overbite. It was unnecessary. He also, well, when they talked about splitting the families, he did a whataboutism. He didn't, he didn't address the thing and, and Walt's got him into the corner and hit him again. And so if you said to me, okay, who would I want to be president? I would take Walt's over Vance. Okay. Let me explain that quickly. Walt's is a Midwestern guy that has Midwestern values and Midwestern principles. And to use his own words, he may be a chucklehead or a knucklehead at times, but he is a guy that would build a coalition of people.

9:37I felt like it was the character from the dead zone debating a youngish Harry Truman. Okay. And so he won the debate, but the question is, would you, after watching those two people for 90 minutes, who would you like to be the president of the United States? I'm going with Waltz. The guy was caring what he said about healthcare, reproductive freedom. It's actually libertarian. I'm surprised the conservatives are not embarrassed that Tim Waltz is making the conservative libertarian argument. What he said about immigration and what he said about his love for the country and for our communities. Yes, Smarty Pants won on debate points.

10:20Smarty Pants got him on some of those issues. And Tim, Governor Walz looked nervous. But the question is, who would you rather have as president, Katty Kay? I think the question then is, were there undecided voters? And this is the only question that really matters with almost everything that happens over the course of the next five weeks. Are there undecided voters responding to a certain event, whether it's this debate or some other event, who will have their mind swayed one way or the other by this debate? I think it's hard to know. I mean, are undecided voters undecided because they just haven't tuned into the race and are very busy or are not that interested?

11:01And if they are undecided voters, will they have been swayed by, I think there's a chance that J.D. Vance, who has terrible negatives, right, going into this, he's a lot less popular than Tim Walz was. And I think he went into this debate. I mean, what was interesting, one of the people I was texting with, what the Republican congressman and the Democratic congressman both raised that this is kind of J.D. Vance trying to mitigate his negative approval ratings because he's auditioning for 2028. He's auditioning to be the presidential candidate next time around. And he knows that he can't be the presidential candidate if he's as unpopular as he is today.

11:39So I think he made the decision to turn up and be personable, to be polite, not to say things about childless cat ladies, not to be even extreme on abortion. I mean, that was one area of the debate that I think was quite surprising, was where he kind of turned it. I mean, he's a clever a debater because he didn't really address what they would do about the states that have taken more draconian positions on abortion. But he just said, we've got to win back the trust of the American people on women's health issues. I mean, he talked again about pro-family, and I think Tim Walsh gave good reply saying, listen, you can defend Roe v.

12:20Wade, but still give more money to kids in the country. It's not an either or. And I think that was a good response to that. But he somehow managed to kind of make his position on, and he definitely rehearsed that line, talking about regaining the trust. And there was a kind of element of kind of humble pie there, you know, recognizing that we've sort of got a problem on this. Interestingly, halfway through the debate, by the way, guys, if you don't follow Trump on Truth Social, which I do, he sent out an all caps kind of Truth Social post saying, I absolutely will not sign into law a national abortion ban.

12:55I've been totally clear on this. So this is something that Trump and Vance want to get out there very clearly. And I thought, you know, he did manage to kind of, he managed to have a good moment. But I think the underlining question is, will there be undecided voters who will have been swayed either way by this one? So I don't necessarily think that, but for those people in the chat session that are saying that Waltz won the debate or I'm being too harsh on Waltz, I ask you, please, if you've recorded the debate, to please go back to the question on Tiananmen Square and watch the 90 seconds. It was a technical knockout.

13:28You can't do that in a debate. You have to assume any possible question is going to be asked of you and you have to have an answer. And even if you, hey, you know what? I wasn't there on June 4th, 1989. I got there a few months later. I did exaggerate that at a time in my life when I was a lot younger. Stakes are much higher now. He could have said something like that. Why do politicians hate apologizing? I mean, what's the problem? Just say, I'm so sorry, I made a mistake. I shouldn't have said that. Well, because their strategists tell them, never say that you're wrong because they're going to use that.

14:01Roy Cohn would tell Trump, you can never admit that you're wrong, never admit that you lost anything because they'll use it against you. They'll chock-a-block it and send it out on Instagram and TikTok, that you said something about you being wrong. Dom, our producer, is saying that we have to explain the Tiananmen Square gaffe. Basically, a couple of times, Waltz has kind of said things that weren't necessarily true about like he didn't hold an assault weapon. He didn't go to war with an assault weapon about his retirement ranking when he left the military. He's also said that he was in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square.

14:36And it turns out he wasn't in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square. And he was pressed on this, but he just fumbled the answer. And he said, I've been to Hong Kong and China lots of times, and sometimes I'm a knucklehead. Well, if you don't mind, I'm going to interrupt because I read an article about this. He basically said that he was in Tiananmen Square during the protests when the tanks were in 1989, but he didn't get there until August of 1989. And so the point was, he has said some things that are exaggerated statements. There's a great expression in American politics, don't let the truth get in the way of a great story.

15:12And so he has stem windedly spoken running for Congress or running for governor about being in certain places, doing certain things. If there was an American journalist that fib that he was in rocket fire and hell fire and a helicopter when it didn't happen, you know, things like that. People have a tendency to do that. I would say to anybody listening to this, if you've never gotten caught in a lie, you're a better person than me and God bless you. Okay. But he got caught in a lie. And all you have to do is say, yes, I shouldn't have said that. It was a hubristic moment for me as a younger man, the stakes are much higher now.

15:47Can we move on to the next question? But he didn't do that. And he dug himself in a hole. But here's the point. He came in nervous. Again, people have to listen. It's not about whether who would be a better vice president or not. Who won the debate? He did not win that debate. You can pretend that he did. He didn't. He was better and more compassionate on reproductive rights and reproductive freedoms. He was better and more compassionate on the shooting stuff. He was better and he was more thoughtful on the healthcare. I give him all of that stuff, but he just did not seem ready, Caddy. And I'm just telling you that.

16:19I wish it was different. Now, Vance came across pitch perfect, smart, high school debate perfect. And he did something that I think caught them off guard. He wasn't Trump. Okay. And it was civil. And he wasn't even J.D. Vance of the last few weeks, right? There was no attack dog, you know, it was civil. It was no ad hominems. I watched it with my wife and she looked at me and said, well, why, why couldn't Trump talk like this? You know, why, why can't we have some type of ideological or policy disagreement in the country, which of course every country does. That's what makes a country. Founders understood that we had to bridge the gap.

16:57But why can't we make it civil like that? And I applaud both of those guys. Yeah, they taught a lot of substance. Harris started slowly on September the 10th, and then she ramped up. And then once she got the glide path right, she shot to the moon. Trump started where he always does medium. And then when she hit him hard, he cratered and just started screaming and barking into the microphone. Vance was on his game. Again, you can like or dislike him. He was on his game. He was proficient in his talking points, but he did two things that Donald Trump is not going to like. Number one, he's way smarter than Donald Trump.

17:34It's not even a question. And then number two, he did try to separate himself a little bit from Trump. He provided space and daylight. And that's something Walt did a good job of. Walt said, whoa, let me put the flashlight. Let me take my iPhone out and flash on this guy right now. Shine a light on where he's separating from Trump. Trump is not going to like that. And trust me, this debate, he's walking out of debate thinking he won. He's thinking Trump is thinking he's the man. Trump is not thinking he's the man. Trump is bummed that Vance did better than him. That's how Trump is. We're going to take a quick break.

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20:09There are a couple of things that were moments where I thought Waltz had some really good lines. And they were, like you said, towards the end of the debate, he had a very nice line on gun control. He told the story actually about how his 17-year-old had witnessed a shooting, a mass shooting. And Vance, to his credit, said, I didn't know that. I'm really sorry for your son. Those things really leave a scar. And it was, again, it was kind of this, they had these moments where they sort of, you know, seem to get on well together. But then I thought, Walt's turned it around because Vance was saying, look, we just have higher rates of mental health problems in America than in other countries.

20:48And Walt says, look, you don't want to end up making your school into a fortress when we know that there are things that you can do about it. and he talked about mental health and he said, we end up stigmatizing mental health. And sometimes it's just about the guns. And actually Vance had no real comeback to that. He just, he was sort of flawed at that point. That was a really good moment for him. I agree. And he also handled the election lie well, because you could see, you know, if I, I was going to say that was his best moment. If I was in the room with Vance right now, and he said, how did I do?

21:21You won the debate, no question. Came across a little bit like the dead zone protagonist or antagonist and the Stephen King novel that became the movie in 1983, the horror movie. A little bit of that, a little bit too much of that. And in the end, you know, Trump lied about the election and all Vance had to do one extra sentence. JD, you told people that you would have voted in a different way than Mike Pence. It makes you a traitor, son. Young man, that makes you a traitor to the United States. He had him right there on the ropes. After losing the first 85 minutes, he could have hit him with that, but he didn't.

22:03And it's a sign of his niceness, by the way. He's a gentleman. That moment where Walt said, did Trump lose the 2020 election. And Vance came back and said, I'm just focused on the future and on censorship. And Walt said, that was a very good non-answer. And I thought actually that was pretty good. I mean, yeah, you're right. Maybe he could have pushed him even further. Too Midwestern for me. Okay. Maybe I'm just too New York. I would have said young man, okay, who barely has whiskers. And I know he could be a fake beer. Young man, calm down for a second. you you you admitted to the american people you'd be a traitor to our constitution a clip that's going to run on social media that's going to run tomorrow that will be replayed and replayed did we did he lose the 2020 election but the other the other clip is you know vance makes trump look like a dunce like a meathead they both make him look like a meathead and somebody's writing in the chat which i have to address because it's a very insightful thing did vance upset or piss off Trump by calling him his running mate?

23:07And the answer to that question is unequivocally yes. You have to call him, you know, the great one, the president, you have to say President Trump. You can't call him your running mate. Can't do that. You know, it puts him, you know, Trump is a brittle, insecure guy. Can't say my running mate. So whoever put that in the chat, I think it was Gersom. It's a very big insight into where it is. I got a text from a Democratic congressman during the course of the debate who texted me and said, is J.D.'s debate performance about helping Trump, question mark, or is it about helping rehab his image for 2020?

23:45Trust me. You trust me. He's going to have a falling out with Trump over the next three weeks, and he's not going to understand what the falling out is about. Trump's not going to overly praise his performance. He'll say a few nice things about it because he has to, but he's not happy about it. But Waltz is walking out of there. He's got people in his psychotherapeutic spin room tell him how great he did. But he knows. He's not stupid, Waltz. He knows he didn't do what he needed to do in that debate. Is it going to affect the polls, Katty Kay? I say no. What do you say? I don't think it necessarily affects the polls very much.

24:20Listen, a quick question for you watching it and put your Republican hat on or your old school Republican hat on. because I got this from Congressman Mike Lawler, who you know, who's a New York congressman, centrist congressman, who at the beginning of the debate texted me and said, listen, this is just, all the questions have been coming from one bent. Every question to Waltz is, Governor, please respond just to what J.D. Vance said. And he was saying that all the questions to J.D. Vance were much tougher than the questions to Tim Waltz. Did it strike you that the moderators were biased one way or another or not?

24:57I think actually it got, It may just be that Congressman Lawler was listening to it at that particular moment because I then started noticing that much more. And it felt to me like it got more even, you know, as the debate went on. OK, listen, you know, I don't want to. Here's what I would say. You know, I don't know. I mean, listen, the media is that leans left in this country other than Fox News and the right leaning media. And so CBS is a left leaning place. But I thought it was fairly balanced. And I think I think advance is being honest. It was fairly balanced. And they did something that they allowed Vance to do something that I thought was very smart from a media perspective.