4. Why Trump won't go to jail

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1:24Hello and welcome to The Rest is Politics US. I'm Katty Kay. And it's me, Anthony Scaramucci. How are you, Caddy? Well, I'm happy as anything because I'm out in sunny California. I took that long, long flight. Every time I do that flight, I can't believe it's almost six hours. It's almost as far to fly from Washington, D.C. to L.A. as it is to fly from Washington, D.C. to London. But you feel like you've come to a different world. And I'm here, actually. I've come out to interview Magic Johnson, the legendary basketball star, which I'm super looking forward to because he is so charismatic and has a great story and is an amazing businessman as well as having been, of course, part of the Dream Team.

2:03That's eclipsing my week. I'm sitting here grinding it out on Wall Street, observing the American political scene. If Magic manages to get me to pick up a basketball, and I'm hoping he's going to teach me a couple of shots, I have never been on a basketball court. So if he can actually transform even me into a semblance of somebody who knows how to even hold a basketball, it will show why he's such a genius. Okay. So since you've mentioned that, if you could somehow get me on a cricket field and explain that game to me, I'd be a very happy camper. I am definitely the wrong person to be doing that.

2:35You'll learn Anthony, my knowledge of sports is suboptimal. Okay. So let's get on with the show. Something that we actually do know something about. We are going to look today at what would happen to the presidential race if Donald Trump is found guilty in that Manhattan hush money trial. There was some very important testimony from Michael Cohen, somebody you know, and we'll get into that, that we should talk about this week and what the various options are coming out of that trial. And then after the break, we're going to explore the Biden campaign. Of course, there's the big announcement that there are now going to be two presidential debates.

3:09President Biden has agree to those. Then some polls that came out from the New York Times that the Biden team have told me they absolutely disagree with. So let's start with a trial. The prosecution is trying to show that the Trump organization falsified business records in order to hide hush money payments to a porn star so that the election would not be derailed for them. And they have to show that Donald Trump knew about this whole scheme, that there was criminal intent. Right, exactly. There's two things going on. We're falsifying our business documents. So there's a tax issue there as well as just business fraud.

3:50And then the second thing has to do with the way finance laws work in the United States. You can't take your corporate money and put it into your campaign. You take your personal money, put it in your campaign. And so if you're going to pay a porn star to keep her mouth shut as you're running up to the election, Okay, that's fine, but you got to write a personal check, but you probably don't want Melania to see the personal check. So what he did was he set up a mechanism to have his fixer, a corporate lawyer of his by the name of Michael Cohen, to do this. And so what ended up happening is they set up this scheme, Michael paid the porn star, and then they had to reimburse Michael through the corporation.

4:31Now, from a legal perspective, that's illegal. And then, of course, did Mr. Trump know about it? And Michael, because of Mr. Trump's reputation of not paying people, recorded him without his knowledge. Now, in our state, it's a one-party state. So just for UK listeners, what does that mean? I can record Caddy Kaye on a phone call because I've given permission. It's a one-party state. There are certain states in this union where you need both parties. I have to say, hey, Caddy, I'm recording you right now. Just want to give you the heads up. And you have to say, that's fine. Please record me. So he recorded Donald Trump without his permission.

5:11He's showing that as a receipt of this criminal malfeasance. So that's the prosecution side. Let me give one moment on the defense. Defense is saying that Mr. Trump did not know about it. So therefore there's no criminal intent. This was done by people inside of his organization without his knowledge. And then secondarily, everything that Michael Cohen is saying is a lie. And Michael Cohen was convicted for perjury, lying under oath in the court and served jail time for this. So he's now an ex-felon. So the admissionable evidence that Michael's bringing to the case is all lies. And you as a juror should discount everything that he's saying.

5:53And Michael Cohen is significant because he was the longtime lawyer for Donald Trump, kind of a conciliary type figure, was sort of obsessed with the Trump family, got very in hock with them, did a lot of - Groupie. He was a groupie, but he was also a paid groupie. And it was his job to make bad stories about Donald Trump go away. So it was Michael Cohen who was the intermediary between the media outlet and Stormy Daniels and Donald Trump. And that's what we've been hearing about this week. I want to just say this to you about Michael Cohen. Michael Cohen is the example of Trump flotsam. He is the wreckage thrown overboard by Donald Trump.

6:42And so he's aggrieved and he's bitter, but I think he's honest. I think he's truthful. Now I like Michael. I went to see him in jail and I ended up in the transcript this week while you were heading out to LA. Blanche, the defense attorney. He says, Michael, is it or is it not true that a gentleman by the name of Anthony Scaramucci came to visit you at Otisville, the federal penitentiary in October of 2019? Michael said, yes. Is it or is it not true that Anthony was trying to work with you to get your sentence shorted? He stumbled on that question, but then he eventually admitted that I did. I got asked that this week.

7:21Well, did you go up there and try to get his sentence shortened? And yes, I have nothing to hide. Michael's a friend of mine. And in a neighborhood like the one I grew up in, Michael's not the first person I've been to visit in a jail. It just hasn't been. When your friends are in trouble, Caddy, I know you're very posh. I happen to have grown up non-posh. When you've got your friends in trouble, you go towards them. You don't go away from them. We're going to do an episode on all of the Anthony Scaramucci friends that he's visited in jail and who they were, all part of the family. Yeah, there's lots of syllables in the last names, by the way.

7:53I don't remember any short Anglican last names that I visited in jail. But here's the point that I'm making about this. Of course, I tried to help him get his sentence shortened because he was a friend of mine. And that's what friends do for friends. And I think it was interesting that they brought it up because they were trying to say that there was something devious to that. But the truth be told, There was nothing devious about it. And by the way, don't ever go to jail. All viewers and listeners listening out there, even the minimum security places in the United States are terrible. That was a public service announcement from Mr.

8:29Anthony Scaramucci. Boys and girls behave so that you do not end up in an American prison. There's one other thing I think viewers and listeners should hear. Why is this important? Because Mr. Trump could be found guilty in this case, scatty. And then how does that impact the campaign? Number one, I think it has no impact on the campaign because what are they going to do with Mr. Trump? They're going to arrest Mr. Trump and put him in jail for this? I don't believe that they will do that. Could they fine him? Yes. Could they provide some level of solitary ankle bracelet home confinement? They could do something like that for a week, two weeks, a month, maximum that they'll do that.

9:10But let's say that someone would push back and say, well, no, Anthony, this is a felony and this is minimum requirement of one year in jail. The Secret Service and the U.S. Marshals are not going to let the former president of the United States go to jail. They're just not going to do it. Despite all those stories that at Rikers Prison, they are having conversations – Rikers Prison, which is the famous prison in Manhattan, just outside Manhattan, about how they're having conversations about how they would accommodate the Secret Service. And who is the poor Secret Service guy who gets the bum job of having to go and spend time in prison with the former president?

9:45Yeah, I agree with you. I don't see him going to prison. So that's the newsflash for everybody listening and UK listeners listening in. There is a club of the presidency. They're not going to put each other in jail. They'll threaten it. They'll rabble rouse. They'll saber rattle. They're not. He's not going to jail. So now what happens to the campaign? I think that this is a total and complete non-event for the campaign. It's marginally helped him on fundraising because he is sending out letters. What was me? I'm the victim. This is what we're calling lawfare. They're using the criminal procedure system to attack me as a form of war in a presidential political campaign.

10:22That is unfair to Joe Biden, by the way. And that's actually not true. But that's what he's saying. And then he's got all of his rubes. This is the most entertaining part of this for me. They're showing up at the court, Caddy, dressed like Donald Trump. They've got the extra long - Matching ties. I know. I like that. Did they all go to, what, they went to Bloomingdale's together and all bought red ties? It looks like a lot of polyester to me, okay? I think they were at TJ Maxx, or this was like Amazon Basic, okay? But I think every one of them look fully flammable for their television appearances, right?

10:53They just had too much petroleum on, but they had the cufflinks on, and they had the tie longer than it should be. And watch me. and for those that are listening, they had their hands in the little circle move. In the little Donald Trump move. In the accordion move like Trump. So they're miming Trump to let Trump know that not only are we with you, but we're trying to be you. They are all auditioning for the VP in front of that courthouse. So they all want that VP nomination desperately. And so I had a couple of reactions that, number one, J.D. Vance, you got to shave your beard. Mr. Trump hates beards.

11:28Okay, so when you're showing up with the red tie, you get the beard on, no bueno. And then the second thing, I got really bad news for you guys. You got to go 13 for 10 for Donald Trump. I know you're out there trying to go 10 for 10. It's mathematically impossible to go 13 for 10, meaning you can never please Donald Trump. He'll always find something to back the rock and roll Volkswagen van over your forehead at some point in your life. Talking of 13 for 10, let's just look back up a little bit and see how this trial could pan out in terms of whether he is found guilty, innocent, or that other issue of there being a hung jury and it's declared a mistrial.

12:09All 12 members of the jury are sitting there listening to Michael Cohen, who is the key witness in this trial, because he is the one that organized the payments to Stormy Daniels. And he is the one who stood up there in court and said that Donald told him to just do it. Apologies to Nike. Michael Cohen says that Donald Trump got there. And he made these payments to Stormy Daniels on Donald Trump's behalf. That's what he's told the members of the jury. So the jury, all 12 members of the jury could, and we think it's going to be next week, could go away having heard all of the evidence and they could decide he's guilty, all 12 of them.

12:42Or they could go away and one of them, only one of them needs to, could come back and actually, you know what? I don't think Donald Trump is guilty, even though all my other 11 jurors think he's guilty. I think he's innocent. At which point we have a hung jury, which means there's a mistrial, which means what? Donald Trump is innocent or he's guilty? That's the most likely scenario. Is that we have a hung jury? Yeah. There's one make America great again, passionate Trump cultist on that jury that's not going to budge. And the jury is hung. Or a member of the jury who just has listened to Michael Cohen and they have heard the defense say time and again, Michael Cohen is a liar.

13:21He's lied before. He's lied before under oath. Why on earth would you trust him? He's been to jail. He's not a reliable witness. And they will go away and they'll say, actually, you know what? The prosecution's main witness. I just don't think he's a standup guy. I don't believe him. And so you get a hung jury. I mean, also, I suppose it's possible that all 12 members go away and decide he's innocent. I think you're right in terms of the politics of this. I don't see how it has much impact on the campaign. I mean, in a way, I would flip it and wonder if he's either acquitted and the jury will find him innocent or it's a mistrial because you have a hung jury.

13:57I see a scenario in which actually all of this benefits Donald Trump and that he manages to get that small sliver of people who voted for Joe Biden in the last election, but don't like Joe Biden anymore, the moment he's got like 7 % of them, he manages to persuade them that, you see, look, the system is rigged against me. I'm like you. I am a victim of the system. I'm a victim of the establishment. And that's where his genius has been during the course of this whole legal procedure. I don't think it's just that it doesn't hurt Donald Trump. I think there's a way in which the most likely, you know, let's come back in two weeks, Anthony, and he's found completely guilty and then we have a different scenario, right?

14:37But if there's a hung jury or he's found innocent, I think this could help him. I'm going to agree with you that on the margin, it's going to help him. But I also know the country and you've lived here for 25 years. This country has the attention span of a fruit fly. Yeah. Maybe a teensy fly. I was going with a gnat. A gnat. And there's a great website in this country called twoweekoldnews.com. And you can go look at it. And two weeks ago, we were banging the drum on something totally different than we're banging the drum on today in terms of what our mass hysteria is. And this trial is going to be way in the rear view mirror come election day.

15:17I have a question about Michael Cohen. Is there a scenario in which Donald Trump mishandled this relationship? Because it's fine to have all of these hangers on. And Donald Trump has a long history of not being loyal to people who have sweated blood for him over the years. But the only one who's really turned against him in a way that has potentially had a huge impact on him is Michael Cohen. Michael Cohen is bitter because he wasn't taken to Washington to work in the White House after Donald Trump won in 2016. He is bitter because he didn't get his annual bonus. These are small rookie errors.

15:57If you're going to have somebody who knows that much about you and has that many secrets about you to whom you have said, Michael Cohen says, when Michael Cohen asked him, I mean, it was extraordinary testimony this week. When Michael Cohen asked Donald Trump, are you worried about upstairs, meaning Melania? Donald Trump's reply was, oh, don't worry about that. Even if it ends, I won't be on the market for very long. I mean, Michael Cohen knew a lot of Donald Trump's seedy business. And Donald Trump kind of, as you say, tossed him over the edge without a life raft. And he should have given him a gold-plated life raft to keep him quiet.

16:33To me, it is the blind spots of Mr. Trump's personality. And in my prediction, he won't be the guy that does the most damage. I think Mike Pence is going to be the guy that does the most damage. And Mike Pence was left out to dry in a different way. Mike Pence was told, use this cockamamie procedural thing at the electoral college vote. I just want to explain quickly to UK listeners. The United States, you have a popular vote and then each state, depending on if the candidate won the state, they get to send their electors to the electoral college. The electoral college voted and then the House of Representatives and the Senate approve the vote.

17:19And of course, who's the president of the Senate? That would be the vice president of the United States. And Michael Pence, Mike Pence was pushed by Trump to do something procedurally illegal to assert a cause for President Trump to stay - Unconstitutional. Unconstitutional to stay in power. And Mike Pence didn't want to do that. And there was a premeditated insurrection on the Capitol. There was violence at the steps of the Capitol into the Capitol buildings. And Mike Pence genuinely feels like his life was threatened by Trump supporters. Well, they were chanting, hang Mike Pence. So it was a kind of fairly reasonable assumption.

18:03They had a gallows with the hanging noose and the whole thing. And so Mike Pence, to me, is going to do those. There are two Michaels here, Michael Cohen and Michael Pence. Mike Pence is going to do more damage to Donald Trump. Why? He was the sitting vice president on the ballot with Donald Trump, and he has denounced him. And he says under no circumstances will he endorse him. And he's galvanized about 40 people, Katty Kay, 40 people that worked for Donald Trump in the inside circle. And I submit to everybody rhetorically, if the 40 of us worked at a pharmaceutical company, we told you this drug is going to kill you.

18:46Or we worked at an airline manufacturer and the plane's going to come out of the sky or an automobile company. We said, this car is going to crash and kill your family. Would you then get in the car? And so you have 40 people that are galvanizing and organizing and Mike Pence will be the ring leader of those people to explain the danger of Donald Trump. So this mistake of Trump by being asymmetrically loyal, expecting loyalty one way, dishing and transacting with everybody negatively if they're not in the moment, going 13 for 10 for Donald Trump, this wreckage is going to come back to haunt them come November.

19:26Yeah. Michael Pence also, I was down in Arizona at a Trump memorabilia store. Apparently it's the biggest Trump memorabilia store. Were there barf bags on the way in or you have to take Dramamine or something like that? Very good site of tourism. Forget the Statue of Liberty, go to a Trump memorabilia store. And the best selling item is a t-shirt with a picture of Mike Pence behind bars saying, Mike Pence, traitor number one, because the Trump people hate Mike Pence for what he did on January the 6th. The other thing is that Mike Pence has the virtue in terms of being a kind of hero, a Shakespearean hero in this play of not having organized payments, allegedly, to porn stars, or lied, or bullied people.

20:11He's a stand-up evangelical guy who, perhaps unlike Mike Johnson, actually does live by the Bible. We don't know if Mike Johnson lives by the Bible, but it was a very funny sight to see Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, who said, if you want to know my worldview, just read the Bible, turning up outside the trial in New York this week. Caddy, anybody that says they live by the Bible, they don't live by the Bible. Okay. When those evangelicals are coming for me, I'm like, watch your wallet. Okay. Cause these guys, they don't live by the Bible, but the Americans secretly and not so secretly, they like the cheekiness of Donald Trump.

20:46Mitt Romney, the Ken doll, too perfect for the American people. Donald Trump hiding the sex with the porn star, with the hush money payments. there's a weird cheekiness to that that the American people like. I've spoken to people in the Trump campaign six months ago who said to me, okay, it's not great if this goes to trial, but you know what? If it goes to trial because Donald Trump was having sex with a porn star, there are a whole load of voters out there, particularly male voters, who are not going to find that such a turnoff. Remember, this is the Wild West in the United States. People like renegades in this country.

21:24and we have an orange-haired renegade on the loose running for president again. I've said it before, though, there are going to be some female voters who might not find this as attractive as some of the guys out there do. True story. On that, we're going to take a break and we're going to talk about the polls and what is happening in the Biden campaign after the break.

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23:55Welcome back to The Rest is Politics US, I'm Katty Kay And I'm Anthony Scaramucci In this half, Anthony, it occurs to me we have spoken an awful lot about Trump We just did it again. And we had a long program about RFK Jr. The one candidate in this race we have not spent a lot of time on, paradoxically, is Joe Biden. And I think it's worth us looking because a couple of things have happened this week that give us a nice way to look at the Biden campaign and the state of the Biden campaign. The first, of course, is they've agreed to do debates, which there was some question about in the Biden camp.

24:26I have spoken to people in the Biden team who were a little hesitant about him doing debates a few weeks ago. But this week, they announced They're going to do two debates, just the two of them, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, one in June and one in September. And then the other thing is that there's been a bunch of polls out this week, one in particular, which has made the Biden campaign. I was texting with somebody on the campaign last night, very unhappy. And that's the New York Times Siena poll, which points to big problems for Joe Biden. They say that's not a reliable poll, but we're going to get into some of the polling.

24:59And why more than just the polling, why Joe Biden seems to be in the position he's in, given that he's the sitting president. So let's start with the debates, which are going to be an unusual form of American debates, because usually in American presidential debates, they're run by this thing called the Election Debate Commission. Both guys have said, too bad, we don't want the Election Debate Commission. The Election Debate Commission only runs poll debates in the autumn. We think that Americans need to start focusing on this election right now. That's particularly the Biden campaign strategy.