In short
Podcast Notes: The Rest Is Politics US - Episode 49: How to Fix a Broken System: American Healthcare in Crisis
Hosts
- Anthony Scaramucci: Former White House Director of Communications and Wall Street financier.
- Katty Kay: US special correspondent for BBC, has covered US politics for nearly 30 years.
Episode Overview In this episode, Scaramucci and Kay discuss the recent assassination of the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, Brian Thompson, and the broader implications this event has for the American healthcare system. The hosts analyze the public reaction to the killing and delve into the ongoing crisis in US healthcare, including the role of insurance companies and healthcare policies.
Key Topics Discussed
- The Assassination of Brian Thompson
- Event Description: Brian Thompson was shot outside a conference in New York City. The shooter, identified as Luigi Mangioni, was later arrested with a manifesto condemning the healthcare industry.
- Public Reaction: There was a surprising outpouring of sympathy for Mangioni, reflecting widespread frustration with the US healthcare system.
- The State of American Healthcare
- System Overview: The US healthcare system is largely employer-based and has significant issues with affordability and accessibility.
- Historical Context:
- Post-World War II, the US adopted a capitalist approach to healthcare, unlike many countries with universal health systems.
- Medicare and Medicaid were established in 1965, but a national healthcare system similar to the UK's NHS was never implemented.
- Obamacare and Its Impact
- Affordable Care Act: Initiated by Barack Obama, aimed to make healthcare more affordable and accessible, but faced significant political opposition.
- Public Sentiment: Despite initial pushback, many Americans began to support aspects of Obamacare, viewing it as a positive change.
- Insurance Industry Practices
- Claims Denial Rates: UnitedHealthcare denies 32% of all claims—double the industry average—leading to frustration among policyholders.
- Personal Anecdotes: Both hosts share personal experiences dealing with healthcare costs and the complexities of insurance claims.
- The Psychological Impact of Healthcare Challenges
- Public Frustration: Many Americans feel overwhelmed by the healthcare system, leading to anger and desperation.
- Social Media Dynamics: The role of social media in amplifying frustrations and the potential for a culture of violence as a response to systemic failures.
- Political Violence and Societal Disconnect
- Concerns Over Vigilante Justice: The hosts discuss the implications of growing societal anger and the normalization of violence as a response to perceived injustices.
- Empathy in Society: The concept of "sonder" emphasizes recognizing others’ struggles as equally important, highlighting a potential loss of empathy in contemporary society.
- Bipartisan Issues in Healthcare
- Historical Bipartisanship: The episode touches on how both Republican and Democratic administrations have struggled with healthcare reform.
- Current Political Landscape: Discusses the broader implications of healthcare frustrations on American politics and public policy.
Conclusion The episode concludes with reflections on how the American healthcare system has reached a crisis point, fueled by policy challenges, corporate practices, and societal frustrations. Both Scaramucci and Kay advocate for a more humane and accessible healthcare system, recognizing the urgent need for reform to alleviate public anger and suffering.
Additional Notes
- Listeners are encouraged to become founding members of the podcast for exclusive content and early access to discussions.
- The podcast also plans to explore other significant political topics in future episodes, including ongoing updates related to the Trump campaign and international relations.
Resources
- Podcast Website: [therestispoliticsus.com](https://therestispoliticsus.com)
- Support the Podcast: Options for becoming a founding member and accessing bonus content.
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This structured summary captures the essential discussions, arguments, and insights shared in the podcast episode, making it accessible for readers seeking to understand the complexities surrounding the US healthcare system and its broader implications.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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1:15Welcome to The Rest is Politics US with me, Katty Kay. And I'm Anthony Scaramucci. Welcome, Katty. You look like you're in an undisclosed location. No, it's a fairly disclosed one, actually. I'm sitting here in Abu Dhabi on El Ariana Island. I just finished the Abu Dhabi Finance Week. Super fast growing city, beautiful city, actually. And I talked about all things crypto, Katty. You know, we don't talk about crypto. I bet you did. We should talk. On the rest is politics, US. Maybe we should do a whole crypto episode because it's becoming intensely political. But we're not here to talk about that.
1:49What are we talking about today, Katty Kay? Okay, so before we get to what we're going to talk about today, I first lived in the UAE in the late 1960s. And I can tell you there was not a lot of crypto hanging around back then. There were silver dollars. Oil was just starting, but there was not a lot of crypto. Okay. So today we're going to do something a little bit different. We're going to take a bit of a break from Donald Trump, although we'll give you a short update on where the nomination process is. But we're going to talk about this story that has been all over America and the American media this week, and that is the assassination of a healthcare chief executive outside a conference in broad daylight in Manhattan, the manhunt that took place.
2:35And then what happened online, which was this huge outpouring of understanding for the shooter and fury at the American healthcare industry. Are we getting into a period of political violence in America? And is this a period of reckoning for a healthcare industry that no one seems to like very much and that costs America far more than any other country in the world is paying for their healthcare? I think this is a kind of sleeper story that sort of exploded over the last three days here, but tells us something about how angry people are at the state of life in America. And then in the second half, we're going to do a quick update on those nominations.
3:19And we are also going to look at Syria. I know that Alistair and Rory have done a lot on Syria this week, and they've done it so well. I listened to their live stream, then they did a special breaking news episode on Syria, which was great. We're going to look at it more from the American perspective, historically, of course, Obama's famous red line. We're going to explain what that was, what that meant for Obama's legacy, what it meant for American power in the region, and what the understanding is today of American influence in the region. And something I want to talk about, which is the surprising kind of bipartisanship between Donald Trump and Joe Biden this week around Syria.
4:02So we will talk about that in the second half. But first, Let's kick off with this story that took place in New York and a quick update. On Wednesday, the 4th of December, so about 10 days ago, the head of the United Healthcare Group, Brian Thompson, was up in New York for the annual investors meeting for United Healthcare. and as he walked from his hotel room to the Hilton where the investors were gathering, as he arrived at 6.40 for that meeting, a masked gunman approached him from behind. The video is extraordinary. I'm sure many of you have seen it and shot him several times. Afterwards, the police found that on the shell casing, the words deny, defend and depose had been written in Sharpie pen.
4:56Now, those are words that are often used by healthcare companies when they are going to deny your insurance claims. And so the assumption was that this was a killing that was related to the health insurance industry. On Monday, the 9th of December, police arrested a young man called Luigi Mangioni in Pennsylvania. He was in a McDonald's and a McDonald's employee was suspicious of him and called the police. The police came and when they asked him if he'd been in New York recently, he started shaking and he was charged with Thompson's murder the following day. He is also carrying multiple fraudulent IDs, a 3D printed gun, a silencer that were believed to be consistent with the weapons used in the attack, and perhaps most critically, a three-page written manifesto attacking the healthcare industry.
5:50And I think what is interesting about this killing, I mean, it's tragic. Brian Thompson had two kids, a family, they have lost their dad. And this does smack of kind of vigilante justice. And I don't know if that is where the country is headed at the moment, but there was just an enormous amount of online sympathy for this young man, Luigi Mangione, not just sympathy for his particular case, but for people who feel incredibly frustrated with the state of their healthcare. So let's talk a little bit about how dire the healthcare industry is for ordinary Americans trying to get treatment and trying to get reimbursements.
6:30Healthcare in the US, it was a very capitalist system after the end of the Second World War. You'll have to tell me when the healthcare services came into place for the United Kingdom, but I believe it was right after the Second World War. Harry Truman wants it. He wants to put it in place for the US. He wants to nationalize the healthcare systems, a similar NHS, if you will. He's pushed very hard by the Republicans. And I just want to point out to people that the Republicans lost the plot from 1932 to 1952. So there was a 20-year reign of Democrats in the executive branch, FDR and Harry Truman, 20 years.
7:14And so the Republicans went very hard at this. It's very important to understand this because they were backed by the American Medical Association. And remember, this is a time in America where doctors were exalted, a very different time in America culturally. And the doctor said, hey, I went through all the schooling and did all this work. I deserve to make my economic rent off the patients in a capitalist system. And so the Republicans won that argument. We never got the National Healthcare Service in place for everyone. But in 1965, we did get Medicare pushed through and Medicaid, which was a form of national health for the very indigent.
7:58So in the middle, Caddy, is the insurance system. Okay, it's very important to understand this. You get your insurance in the United States mostly from your employer. If you've got to go out and get it on your own, you typically pay more. Why is that? Well, you're a one person. These insurance people like to price things on a big pool of people. And so a firm that has 50 ,000 people, person rate is lower, the monthly or the annual rate. But if you're one person, it's going to be way higher because of the way statistics work. This is very, very important. Now, fast forward, Barack Obama, he comes into office, he wants to promulgate Obamacare, which is effectively making every insurance company come up with an insurance policy that's affordable, i.e.
8:50the Affordable Healthcare Act, which is exactly what it was called, But then it was derisively called Obamacare by the Republicans. They thought that was going to be a bad word. It turned out that the Americans generally want this health care. They want this universality of health care. So Obamacare became a positive as opposed to a pejorative. And by the way, Obama tried to have what we have in Britain, right? At one point, one of the discussions when he came in and said, I'm going to do reform health care was to do what the Brits did or what the Canadians do. And Sarah Palin almost single-handedly killed it by saying, oh, they're going to have death panels deciding who lives and dies.
9:31That is what happens in countries with public health systems because there isn't enough healthcare to go around. That is not true. They do not have that kind of death panels. But anyway. That's an important part of this story because there was a Senate seat that opened up. One of the real champions of universal healthcare or national health service was Ted Kennedy. This was the third son. There were four sons. One died in the war, but the three that became politically active, John, Bobby, and Ted Kennedy. Ted Kennedy, the great senator from Massachusetts, the great lion of the Senate, he championed for five decades getting a healthcare act done.
10:12But unfortunately, he died in 2009 of a brain tumor. Now, the attorney general, I should say, from Massachusetts came in. Her name was Martha Coakley, and she was running against a Republican in one of the bluest states, the most Democratic states in our union, Massachusetts. This is a former classmate of mine from Tufts. His name was Scott Brown. That death panel story fed into that campaign and Scott Brown beat Martha Coakley and you had a Republican take over this legendary five decade seat of the Kennedys, John and Ted Kennedy. And he moved into Teddy Kennedy's office and he voted down the Obamacare that you're describing, the one that would have created this national health service.
11:03So they modified it and they did something that they call reconciliation. And they created what is now known as the Affordable Care Act. So put simply, you're in the US, you can't really afford healthcare. Maybe you're not working for somebody. Maybe you're unemployed. You have to get a mandated insurance policy from somewhere in the system. And so what did the system do? It got forced on them, right? So this is not a free market. This is forced on them. So what did the system do? They've got to pull from somewhere and they start pulling from people. They deny your prescription. They deny your operation.
11:43They deny your MRI. They increase your premiums. You go to pay for your cholesterol medication and they say, geez, I'm sorry. You now have a$300 deductible and it's going to cost you$300 before the insurance comes in. Or you have a surgery. I had my shoulder repaired and the hospital sent me a$30 ,000 bill. I said, excuse me? Oh yes, you have a$30 ,000 bill. Your insurance company only paid$25 ,000 of it and you've got to pay the remaining$30 ,000 and then you have to fight it out with the insurance company to see if they can give you money back. This is why people are so mad because everybody has one of these stories.
12:26I have UnitedHealthcare. My system works brilliantly most of the time. But about four years ago, I needed an MRI. And that MRI has still not been resolved. I still get bills from the MRI company every single month. And UnitedHealthcare says, well, we're not paying it. We're not paying it. We're not paying it. And don't you pay it either, because eventually they'll realize that no one's going to pay it. I think, you know, Anthony, you and I, educated, employed, persistent, We know how to work the system. Imagine if you're not those things. Imagine if you're somebody who doesn't have the benefits that we have, who doesn't have the advocacy that we have.
13:06I can understand why people are absolutely furious. There's a story about a woman who was told by her doctor her baby was in the hospital. They needed to transport that baby to another hospital. They summoned an air ambulance, but her insurance wouldn't pay for the air ambulance. She didn't have the money to pay for the air ambulance herself out of pocket right there, but they said her baby was in a life-threatening condition. It is breaking this country. It's breaking the country at the moment. It's heartbreaking on so many different levels. And this is another part of this story that I think you'll enjoy and so will our listeners.
13:43Ronald Reagan was a right-leaning conservative politician. And when this issue came before him, he was vexed by it because Reagan would say privately, wow, we're a rich country. Healthcare is about creating equal opportunity. I am as a conservative, I'm now channeling Reagan. I as a conservative want there to be equal opportunity. I'm not for equal outcomes. That's Marxian and that's too socialist for me, but we've got to get people to the starting block and we got to get people with a base level of healthcare, particularly young people with a base level of healthcare. And in 1986, buried in some legislation, they always bury in some light items into legislation.
14:28He created universal healthcare in the United States. And so let me explain to you what he did. It's very important. If you walk into a emergency room, let's say you're indigent, let's say you're an illegal alien, let's say you're the poorest person in America, but you walk into the emergency room and you have an ailment, they are legally obligated as a hospital in America to treat you. And if you don't have insurance, well, that goes on the balance sheet of the hospital. But do you know why that's insane? It costs about 10 times more to treat you for a minor ailment. If you had a healthcare system that provided primary healthcare for everybody and preventative medicine for everybody and checkups for everybody where you could call your doctor and go for your strep throat, it would treat you at a fraction of the cost.
15:20And that's another way the system is broken. I mean, this idea that it is free choice and Sarah Palin's idea, well, if we have a national healthcare system, it's going to have death panels. And I look at the UK health system and that is broken too. I know less about Canada. It seems to me that the healthcare systems that work best in the world are one that are a mixture of public and private. So Germany, Japan, Switzerland, people seem to have pretty high levels of satisfaction with their healthcare systems. The difference is in those countries, in Germany, for example, the health insurance companies aren't allowed to make large profits.
15:58And if you look at a company like United Health Group, which is the company that this chief executive worked for, it reported$22 billion dollars in profits in 2023. So I think that's part of the problem, right? That healthcare insurance companies are making huge profits and the profits keep growing, but the quality of service keeps declining and nobody seems to keep a check on it in a way that is both efficient for the system, so people are not ending up in the ER, getting treated for a strep throat, and gives people customer satisfaction. As you and I both know, there's no call for this type of violence, this type of senseless violence.
16:44Yeah, I agree. But what I find interesting about our society right now, have we become so callous? Meaning, if you're anonymous on X or anonymous on Instagram, you can write these bullying screeds. You can cyber bully people. You can dehumanize people. You can take them apart every which way possible. And is it now spilling over into real life where you have a combination of people playing video game after video game, shooting and shooting and shooting people? Silencers are quite popular in video games. You know, like detectives said, this was definitely an amateur. And I said, excuse me, why do you say that?
17:25He had a silencer. He goes, oh no, a silencer is a sign that he's an amateur. he plays video games. Interesting. A professional would have wanted a very loud shot. Really? Why would he want a loud shot? Wouldn't that cause everybody to look at the shooter? He said, oh, no, no, it's the very opposite. You hear bang, bang, you're ducking and running and the shooter gets away scot-free. No one remembers the shooter as they're seeking safety. And so a detective said to me, and I remember going home and talking to my wife Deirdre about it. I say, why is that detective saying this? I didn't understand.
18:01It was on TV. So I called one of the local detectives and he responded and told me, no, no, that kid is a video game player that shot him because they always put the silence on in a video game. But my question to you, Caddy, is the senseless cyber bullying, combined with the video games, combined with the trauma and frustration, is that mixture so toxic that it spills over into senseless shootings in a street in New York City? I think there's lots of different bits there, and each one needs to be kind of treated separately and analyzed separately. And I think that some ways in which social media actually around this killing, I deplore the lack of sympathy for the man and his children and his wife and his family.
18:50I don't understand how people can feel so callous, even if, yes, he worked for a healthcare company that was making a lot of money and at the same time is literally bankrupting people. I understand that anger. And United Healthcare, by the way, turns down 32 % of all claims, which is twice the industry average of 16%. So United Healthcare is particularly egregious, which may be why it was him that was targeted. And I think you can separate those feelings out from this. And I think it's good to get the information out there. I think it's good the way that the social media is allowing some of this information to get out there.
19:28Again, some of it may be unreliable and some of it may be reliable, but it's worrying to me that people, if we are in an era where people start feeling they can take the law into their own hands and justice into their own hands. Look, this may be a total one-off, but are we in a moment in time, and you and I are recording a whole January the 6th series at the moment, where those people clearly felt justified in going down to Capitol Hill and taking the law into their own hands and smashing up the Capitol. This guy clearly felt justified in shooting somebody in broad daylight in the street. So, Cady, everything you just said makes sense, but tell me where we've lost our touch with each other.
20:11And what I mean by that, that man had a family. And so have we lost our touch? Is there something going on psychologically in our communities where we now see each other as objects in our field of vision, as opposed to human beings? And again, not to throw stoicism into our podcast, but I just want you to think of the word sonder for a second, S-O-N-D-E-R. This word for the Stoics mean that you have your life and it's super important to you and you have your ecosystem around you and I have mine. But if you can get to the word Sonder, you understand that everybody that you come in contact with has that.
20:55They have an important thing going on in their day. They have children that they're trying to take care of, or perhaps elderly parents or they're younger thinking about their sports team. And when you can get to the word sonder, you start to appreciate that, yes, your life is important, but it's not necessarily more or less important than other lives. But we're now in this sort of narcissistic playground where what's happening to us matters maybe more than the people around us, where I'm a grieve, You've chipped me in the insurance system, a result of which there's going to be hell to pay and a murder of the CEO of the insurance carrier.
21:38Is that where we are in our society? Is that really where we are? Is that where we're going? Because it's not necessarily just a one-off because the reaction caddy was so overwhelmingly sympathetic to the shooter. That's what was interesting. It makes me say, well, wait a minute. Have you guys lost the sonder? Have you lost the ability to appreciate each other? And have you lost the ability to recognize, yes, you're important, but other people see themselves as important as you see yourself? I mean, part of the reaction was, I think, understandable fury and outrage and pain at the state of the health insurance industry, which I think is actually legitimate and needs to be talked about.
22:21And it would be extraordinary and beneficial, I think, to America. I mean, God, it would be beneficial to America's national debt if nothing else. And that's probably the least of it if America spent less on its health insurance and improved the quality of its delivery of healthcare for people. But I think what you're talking about reminds me more of something that Vivek Murthy, who's the Surgeon General of the United States, has been talking about for the last year or so. And that is an epidemic of loneliness and isolation in this country. And he has warned that about half of all American adults are experiencing considerable levels of loneliness that are affecting their physical health, their mental health, and their societal health.
23:07In other words, their ability to be out in society. And I know it's when somebody like that comes up, I mean, I hope that people do listen when somebody like that comes up with a report. And I've just been so impressed with the way that Dr. Murphy has really been trying to ring the bell on this one, on a subject that is not sort of tough and sexy and about power or money, but is something that affects an awful lot of people. I don't know when it started, but what the consequences of that loneliness might be, I think we're starting to find out. And I think some of what you're talking about is behind this story.
23:45We are going to take a break and come back, having had that very soulful discussion on The Rest is Politics US, talk a little bit of Trump because we can't totally drop our favorite character in this drama. So we'll take a break and we'll be right back.
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25:45Okay, welcome back to The Rest is Politics US with me, Katty Kay. I'm Anthony Scarwish. Last time we spoke to people, Anthony, last week, I think we may have given the impression that Pete Hegseth was going to be gone by the end of the weekend. And he seems to be still hanging on. He's still going around Capitol Hill, still desperately trying to convince senators to vote for him in the committee hearings that will start next January. How do you rate his chances at the moment? So, you know, I've been wrong. I would have thought he would be gone. Listen, I talked to these senators. Yeah, we both thought he was going to be gone.
26:22I think it's important for people to understand that you and I have good sources, or at least I think I have good sources. I have friends of mine that I've donated money to for multiple decades, and I don't think they're telling me what I want to hear because I don't have a dog in the race with Pete Hexed. He becomes the defense secretary. I wish him well. I don't have a dog in the race. Kash Patel is a different story. I think he's an incredibly dangerous person, and if he just does 10 % of what he's saying he's going to do, forget about hurting the American civilization and me and my fellow citizens.
Read the full transcript
26:56He's going to hurt Donald Trump. If I was Donald Trump's advisor, I'm not, but if I was, I'd say you can't have him in there. By the way, how is a senator going to approve Kash Patel with the threat that Kash Patel could then turn around on the senator and investigate the senator? I mean, what would stop this guy who speaks on Steve Bannon's war room broadcast like a maniac? what would stop that? And so for Hegseth, let's say you and I were on the board of the Pentagon, and we were the hiring committee, and we had a search committee give us 50 resumes. Would Pete Hegseth get even to the top 10?
27:36He wouldn't. He was only going to be close. That's a no, not a hope. I mean, it's like saying to somebody, I'm going to implore you to manage the local bank, and the person has only actually ever worked on a farm and taken cash for the things that they've sold and that counts as banking. That's not the way it works. So no, he's patently not qualified. He's a guy that is a nice guy. He speaks well on television. Now there's a theory going around. And if any of the Trump people listen to this podcast, they're going to be super mad at me saying this, but there's a theory going around that if he gets approved, he's the figurehead.
28:14And Steve Feinberg, I don't know if you've heard that name, but people on this podcast can look him up. He is a brilliant person. Steve Feinberg is the CEO of a company called Cerberus. I have known Steve forever. He's a legendary figure on Wall Street, but he has spent the last 10 years dedicated to the defense industry, dedicated to enhancing procurement, dedicated to making the Pentagon more efficient. He was on the president's PIFIUS board. I think he was actually the head of that. What is that? That's the president's council for foreign intelligence services. It's called PIFIUS or something like that.
28:54I don't have it perfectly, but that's the acronym. And he did a brilliant job for Trump on that board. And he's been designated, he's been nominated to be the deputy secretary of defense. Now people in the defense industry, people in the Pentagon know and like Steve. And so the thought is you have this figurehead, very good looking guy, charismatic television figure, helping to bolster army recruiting. Cady, I think you know this, living in the United States, our volunteer military services, our volunteer armed services is way down. We are having a hard time recruiting and bringing people into the military.
29:36Morale inside the military is way down. We fought a lot of wars, two wars that were almost two decades each. Afghanistan, we blew out of Afghanistan unceremoniously. I think it's one of the big gaffes, big blunders of the Biden administration, if you're going to look at it historically. And it had a big morale impact on the military. So the thought is you get the good looking, charismatic television recruiter, Pete Hegseth, and then you get the operational person that actually runs the Pentagon in Steve Feinberg. Now, if that's the case, God bless. By the way, I've heard, and I think you've heard the same thing, that Trump's ready to give up on him.
30:18He's getting pushback from J.D. Vance. He's getting pushback from Susie Wiles. Now, why would he be? J.D. Vance wants to be Trump's heir apparent. He doesn't want a potential competitor for the 2028 presidential nomination to have a more significant job than him. He wouldn't want Mr. Ron DeSantis to come in and be the defense secretary. Absolutely not. Because remember, the defense secretary job, as you know, is more important than the vice presidency. Yes. Gets a lot more airtime. Yeah. The vice president basically - Does something. Yeah, exactly. You know, you're not in a seat of influence in the vice presidency, unless, of course, there's a fateful day where you're called to serve as president.
31:04But, Caddy, so there's some infighting. Susie dislikes DeSantis now. I don't know what happened there, but they've been fighting. The president has told people, I'm going to the Army-Navy game, which is coming up this weekend. The thought is that DeSantis would be there. He tried to repair and chum with DeSantis a little bit. DeSantis earned low marks for competing against Donald Trump. Remember, Donald Trump was behind in the polls and DeSantis had$150 more million than Donald Trump. So Trump was upset with him for that, but Trump gives him high marks for when he dropped out, he immediately endorsed Donald Trump.
31:42Nikki Haley said she needed some time to think about it. Chris Christie said, no way, not ever, but DeSantis immediately endorsed him. So there's a healing process there with Trump. And so people have said, Trump, as you know, he's very transactional. He's ready to give up on Hexeth. So anyway, that's my analysis. Those are my thoughts. What's your reaction to all that? I'd heard one piece of information from somebody who's close to John Thune, who's going to be the Senate majority leader, which is that Thune is playing this kind of chess game with the senators. He thinks they can take down four of Donald Trump's nominees.
32:18Matt Gaetz is one of those four. So the others would be Pete Hegseth, Kash Patel, and Tulsi Gabbard. And we should talk about her in a second in the context of Syria. But he doesn't want any one senator to have to vote too often no, because he wants to try and protect his Republican senators, particularly senators who come from states that are frontline states, that could be purplish states. So a state like North Carolina, which would mean Senator Tom Tillis, who actually instinctively may want to vote more often no on some of these picks, but Thune really doesn't want him out there doing that.
32:56So there's a kind of a little bit of, okay, Tillis, you can vote no on Hegseth, but you're going to vote yes on cash and yes on that one. But so-and-so is going to vote no on cash. And so to try and dilute some of the MAGA fury so that none of them have the wrath of MAGA, which is what Joni Ernst, the senator from Iowa, has at the moment after she came out pretty critical of Pete Hegseth, former veteran herself, victim of sexual abuse. And she had been critical of Pete Hegseth. And suddenly, my God, her office has been deluged with messages from MAGA people with abuse and threats of being primary.
33:39So there is a kind of plan I've heard that John Thune, the guy who's going to be the leader of the Senate, has in place, but he's trying to protect people. Talking of Tulsi Gabbard, interesting week for her because, of course, with all of the events, and I was at an event on Sunday night in Washington where there were a whole bunch of senators, and I went up to a couple of them and kind of said, listen, Senator, how's it going to go in those nomination hearings, particularly for Tulsi Gabbard as DNI? and they kind of rolled their eyes and said, well, we're going to have to have very tough hearings and get to the bottom of this one.
34:12But they were sort of just bemused that she could possibly be the pick because of Tulsi Gabbard, a congresswoman from Hawaii, went off by herself in the middle of the Syrian civil war and pitched up in Damascus, standing with Bashar al-Assad, and then later said, Assad is not America's enemy. So I think this kind of highlights some of the problems. And those hearings have suddenly got a lot more interesting around her because who knows what documents there are. We don't know what they have in Syria that may be around Tulsi Gabard. Give people the knowledge of your reporting for a moment though.
34:45Why did she say that? And is Assad our enemy? Tell people that may not know the relationship with Syria, some of the history and what the politics were around Assad and his family. When Gabard went, it was in 2017. So it was during the civil war. And then it was two years later that she said he's not the enemy of the United States. I don't think Assad was on anyone's radar at that time, but she has this pattern of repeating the point of view or giving benefit of the doubt to America's adversaries. And I do think in the context of kind of global politics, you could at that point put Vladimir Putin and President Assad in a similar bucket.
35:31Putin was helping Assad. He needed his Mediterranean bases in Syria. He had bases. He had troops there fighting for Assad. Assad would not have survived as long as he did if it had not been for President Putin. So the question partly was, why did she go without telling anybody in the intelligence community in the US, which in and of itself is suspicious for a congressperson? Why do you suddenly show up on somebody who is an adversary of the United States. He was also being propped up by Iran, a country on the axis of evil, another adversary of the United States. I think that was why Assad was certainly not seen as an ally of America.
36:10Then there were the human rights atrocities that the Syrian regime was committing against its own people, including, and we should talk about this, using chemical weapons against its own people, which was why in August of 2012, President Barack Obama, when the war was kicking off famously said he was not going to intervene, but that he had a red line. If Assad used chemical weapons against the Syrian population, then America would intervene. He said he had been very clear to the Assad regime and also to the other players that that red line existed. A year later, in a suburb of Damascus that was held by the rebels, there was the use of sarin gas by the regime that killed 1400 people, including some 400 children.
37:00I mean, it was awful. They were suffocating. The way you die from, we know from the First World War, the way you die from gas attacks is awful. And President Obama, having taken this strong position, rode back and actually said he had decided not to abide by that red line. And maybe that gets to what you're asking, Anthony, you know, is Syria really America's enemy? What Tulsi Gabbard was asking or saying, she wasn't even asking, she was saying Syria is not America's enemy. How problematic was the red line statements of Barack Obama? And it's 2024, so it's 12 years after that. And of course, there was a very famous kerfuffle with David Cameron as well, where he put the vote to the members of parliament and they said no.
37:51Obama couldn't get it done. He put it to a vote. They said no. Yet he said there was a red line. Do you think that that caused our adversaries to say, ah, this guy's knocking his knees. Let's roll this guy and let's roll the West. At the time, and even for the years afterwards, it was seen, I think, justifiably as the single biggest foreign policy failure of the Obama administration. possibly the single biggest black mark on the Obama administration. But it could be that we're looking at that in the context of the post-Second World War period where American engagement around the world was accepted as the norm.
38:33And actually what Barack Obama's presidency marked compared to George W. Bush and all the presidents who had come before him, Barack Obama's presidency marked and Donald Trump's presidency continued that, the beginning of a period where there was much more questioning about the value of American engagement around the world to the United States. Is this really worth it? Are we just being the global policemen because that's the role we've always had and because we like the image of ourselves as the world's superpower, but is it actually to our benefit? Anyway, as Obama used to say, we need to pivot to Asia and be much more focused on China than on the Middle East.
39:13And so I suppose in terms of realpolitik and a world that was changing and an ideology that was shifting from defaulting to America, America, America, and American leadership everywhere, everywhere in Latin America, in Asia, in the Middle East, particularly in Europe. And we see how much that ideological position has changed just in the last four or five years. I think that decision of his not to enforce that red line, we might look back and say, okay, that is the moment. You could mark that as the moment the world could no longer assume that America was going to lead. But here's my pushback, and I'd like to hear a reaction.
39:59So he held hostage in prisons, Americans. There's one of which the family is looking for him, 12 years. Austin Tice, who may still be alive, apparently. Right, may still be alive. His family thinks he's still alive. He has supplied arms to Hezbollah and other terrorist groups. He's worked alongside the Iranians and the Russians. You know, again, whatever America's shortcomings are in this, we fought in Iraq. And Iraq is an interesting combination of different tribes. This is the remnants of, frankly, the Sykes-Picot Treaty, the infamous treaty that carved up the Middle East as the Brits, the French, and the Ottoman Empire were leaving during the First World War.
40:47But they created this imaginary country known as Iraq. They literally took out a ruler and they sliced down - Thank you for reminding us of our wonderful, glorious history in that particular moment. I think it's important because we're still fighting the First World War in that area of the world. There's a tribal conflict everywhere. And so he put pressure on the Kurds, the Syrian and the Iraqi Kurds. You may remember in the first Donald Trump administration, Trump pulled out the Marine Battalion, the forward operating base that was up in the Syrian Kurd area. We made a commitment to those people.
41:25Trump is very critical of Biden leaving Afghanistan. We'd made a commitment to many of the Afghanis. We left them high and dry to the Taliban. We left the Kurds high and dry to Assad's army. And so what I would say to Tulsi Gabbard, if you just study the history of what Assad and Assad's father did in the region, they haven't been friendly to the United States. And let me just say this, if you've got Russian bases in your country, you've got some US bases, but that's sort of the way Americans have Guantanamo in Cuba. I don't know. I don't think he's a friend of ours. The fact that she's saying that, let's not play an American, you role play.
42:06You're MI6. And Tulsi Kabard is saying that Syria and Assad and the situation there, they're not adversaries of the US, which means I guess they're not adversaries of the UK, what would say you? Would you want to give her the information from Five Eyes? Would you want to sit down with her as the Director of National Intelligence and share with her, as you have shared with the American people for the last 80 years, global intelligence? That's one of the concerns. Would you ever risk putting your own human assets at risk in the field, Syrians who have very bravely spied on their own country to give information to the Brits, would you hand that information on to an American intelligence community headed by somebody who had turned up in Syria previously and hung out with President Assad and said he wasn't an enemy?
43:04I don't know that you would make that call, right? You would hold things back if you could. Give me the Trump case, though. Give me the Trump case. So go ahead. Be Susie Wiles. Play Donald Trump. You don't have the right hair color for Donald Trump, but give me the Trump case. Why Tulsi Gabbard? Why Pete Hexeth? What's the case? So Trump's been pretty interesting on Syria since it happened. He tweeted out immediately after Assad fell, the United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved, which seems to be his kind of mantra at the moment.
43:39We are not going to get involved. It's not the mantra of his Secretary of State designate, Marco Rubio, but it is the mantra of somebody like Tilsey Gabbard and now somebody like Pete Hegseth, just pull back, America's going to go into an isolationist period. There is nothing for us to be gained. And here's my question. Is Donald Trump actually going to realize that there is a difference between some engagements and other engagements? Or is he going to lump all foreign intervention by the United States into the same bucket of America being ripped off by other countries. I mean, take Syria, for example.
44:20America does at the moment have 900 troops in northern Syria. Those troops are there to push back ISIS elements. They are there to help protect the people who are working with more alliances with the United States. Syria has hydrocarbons, which were not under Assad's control. There's some benefit to the United States in having a presence there. But will Donald Trump come in and just say, okay, blanket, everything is bad and throw the baby out with the bathwater? Or will he have a more refined approach and think, actually, there are some instances in which it is to America's advantage to have engagements abroad, even American troops abroad, even if it costs us money, which I hate, but the cost is low and the return is big.
45:07And I don't know, we don't know that yet, whether that kind of analysis is what he and his team are going to go through. I mean, I think it's a fair point of view. There's a book that I read 35 years ago, and the book is titled - How on earth can you remember a book you read 35 years ago? It was a seminal book for me related to this very issue that we're talking about. The name of the book is The Peace to End All Peace. and it was written by David Fromkin and it's still in paperback and it's still published. It's a very popular book and it's basically about the end of the First World War, the tribal conflicts, the redistricting of borders and the perpetual border disputes everywhere and the overlay of the US State Department.
45:55So the State Department's position has been in the Middle East that if you are a dictator and you are a strong leader and it's your sovereign territory and you're creating stability and not giving the U.S. a hard time, no problemo, we're totally fine with you. That was our State Department since 1917 to 2003. That was our feeling. George Bush, George W. Bush broke that precedent in 03 when he invaded Iraq in March of 2003 and made the case against Saddam Hussein. The reason I'm bringing this up is that Henry Kissinger, he told Barack Obama that the precedent snapping of Bush was very, very damaging, but you're okay.
46:50The only thing you have to do is leave the Russians out of the region. Well, how do I leave the Russians out of the region? Well, make sure you have USAID, make sure you've got the State Department, make sure that you are providing some level of security guarantees back to the old State Department policies. And Obama did not listen to him. He allowed the Russians that superpower or that, what Obama called them, it had always upset Putin, that regional power. He let them back into the region and it wreaked havoc in the region and provided space for Iran and the Syrians to fund Hezbollah and to fund Hamas and to create further instability in the region.
47:37Okay, so what's your reaction to that? Do I have that wrong? So I think the problem with the view that America should never lead, which is slightly the Trumpian view that you just retrench, is one, it's not really an option in a globalized world. We all learned that on 9-11, the world will come knocking at your door, even if you don't go knocking at its door, and the problems will come here. And two, you just don't ever understand fully the knock-on consequences of events today and what might happen. And that analysis of Barack Obama's failure to use American soft power, even if he wasn't prepared to use military power to enforce the red line over chemical weapons, but his failure in the Middle East, because he was so committed to this pivot to Asia and so frustrated that they couldn't get going with it, led to consequences he didn't foresee.
48:35You can be surrounded by as many smart people as you like, but you can't always tell what's going to be the domino effect of something that you do or don't do. I personally believe the world is better off when America is strong and healthy and engaged than when it's withdrawn. Not that America doesn't make mistakes, it makes mistakes. But on the whole, I would much rather have American engagement. But Katty, not only do I agree with that, I would make the case to my fellow Americans, it's better for you. You have more peace, more stability, greater commercial opportunities, greater capitalism.
49:10But it's not an argument that's in vogue at the moment in the American political space. No, it's not. The argument in vogue now is that Bush screwed everything up. Yep. We had two forever wars to nowhere. We're overly engaged. It's none of our business. Pull out of these areas. Why are we there? But again, this disavows what we talked about a few weeks ago, the Thomas Hobbes principle that there has to be one hegemonic power that flexes on the others to put down the internecine tribal conflicts to get true peace and global stability. And whether that was Pax Britannia or Pax Romana, the Americans have accepted that mantle of leadership for the last 80 years.
49:54And why give it up? Why give it up when you know for 5 ,000 years the hegemon that does give it up, it leads to greater violence, greater global conflict. And by the way, if Calvin Coolidge was right, Caddy, that the business of America is business, it's bad for business to give it up. Donald Trump, you're a business guy. Don't you love business? You can't give up this footprint that easily. You need markets. You need to be engaged. I was told this week that one of the most popular policies that Donald Trump talked about on the campaign trail with working class American voters was getting out of NATO.
50:32And that is something that will send shockwaves around Europe. The idea that it's not just Donald Trump talking about this, but that American voters increasingly want to cut ties because they think the whole system is broken. Terrible, because in the 1950s, the Americans would have said, we need NATO. The collective power of us will prevent a war, peace through strength. But Cady, before we go, I want you to react to this and tell me if I'm misguided. So the ceasefire with Hezbollah and the effective, you know, complete wipeout and destruction of Hamas, the death of Senuar and other Hamas leaders, they're so badly weakened as a result of the aftermath of October 7th.
51:14Did it cause a weakening of Assad as well? So I think that was part of the story. The other part of the story was Ukraine and that the Russians were so overstretched in Ukraine that for the first time since the civil war began, when Assad needed their help, they couldn't come and shore him up. The thing that is remarkable about this story is that somebody I know well, who's a foreign policy expert who traveled to Saudi Arabia last month for those big Davos in the desert meetings, said that he had been told, and the Saudis told him, America has to get used to Assad. He's not going anywhere. Just get used to dealing with him.
51:57That was a month ago, and that was the Saudis. They didn't know how quickly the Syrian regime was going to fall. History is full of surprises. Politics is full of surprises. Well, that's what happened. You think the Americans were saying you have to deal with the Soviets forever. And the Soviet economy is way stronger and blah, blah, blah. Gorbachev is going to be with us forever. And down came the Soviet Union. So it does happen. So that feels like a good place to end. There will be a bonus episode for founding members only on Saturday when we answer your questions. If you aren't a founding member yet, do please join us.
52:34Go to therestispoliticsus.com and you can sign up on becoming a founding member. And we are also doing a special series on January the 6th, which will be fun as well. The title could have been, Kay, How Donald Trump Destroyed My Birthday. We could have had that. There will be a lot of conversations about Anthony's birthday. We'll see you next week. Thanks for listening. Thank you for listening.
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