73. Trump’s War Plans, Group Chat Leaks, and Vance vs. Europe

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0:34Hello and welcome to The Rest is Politics US. I'm Katty Kay. And I'm Anthony Scaramucci on a text chain with Mike Walsh, the National Security Advisor. So that's a different one from the one I'm on then, because I'm on with Pete Hegseth, and I think they're bombing Greenland tonight, Anthony. But I guess I shouldn't say that on air, right? I don't know. Are they changing the name to Orange Land? I mean, I'm just sort of figuring that's the apropos name, right? Okay, guys, you got the gist. We are going to talk about this bizarre story of how a journalist was added to a group chat with top American officials about a military strike in Yemen.

1:08We will break down the consequences, what the Democrats can do with this story, if anything, and more importantly, what it says about the administration's approach to national security. And then in the second half after the break, we're going to look at Trump's latest economic headache tariffs now affecting more than$1 trillion worth of imports, Musk's layoffs, what Wall Street is making about all of this. I think actually, very interestingly, what came out this week was also what American consumers, in other words, American voters are making of all of this. Okay. So if I told you, we were going to go and take the Anthony Katty Kay Air Force bombers and bomb a rival podcast station.

1:54And then we put that out in the public. I'm assuming that probably would be pretty sensitive information. What do you think? Okay. I just want Alistair to know she said rival. So you're part of our family. They're family. Yes. You're part of our NATO. You're part of our goal hanger NATO alliance. Which at this point, honestly, may have more teeth to it than the actual NATO. Right. Well, I mean, I have so many things to say, but I'm going to limit them to these following three things. Okay. Number one. I'm glad we've got a list. This is absurd. And these people should be fired immediately. I just imagine President Eisenhower in a situation like this.

2:33These people would be dispatched immediately. This is completely absurd. Number two, they won't get fired and they can't get fired because they have passed the Donald Trump loyalty test. Think of what Mike Walsh did during the January 6th situation, and think of how these people are barking and yelping on behest of Donald Trump as evidenced by their text messaging between each other. So they're not going to get fired. But number three, here's the glimmer of hope for the rest of us. He can't replace them because nobody wants to take this loyalty test. It's a very thin group of people that want to be part of this absurd, incompetent farce.

3:14And that's good news. That's good news for the world. And that's good news for America. What do you think? So I think this is one of those interesting stories, and I'm going to put my kind of transatlantic hat on, where in Washington, and I agree with all of those, by the way, you're right, they won't get fired. And Donald Trump made that pretty clear in the White House and listening to Mike Waltz fall over himself to sound sort of Trumpian, both praising the president, but also fighting and attacking the journalist who, by the way, Jeffrey Goldberg, I've known him for a very long time. He's a very serious journalist.

3:49The fact that he didn't straight away release some of the more sensitive texts, although he did that again on Wednesday, is a tribute to how seriously he takes national security. He knows a lot of people in the Pentagon. So I don't think his credentials are in doubt here. I have to stop you because you're a journalist and I just have to ask you this question. Yeah. Is he or is he not part of Mike Walsh's contact list, Katty Kay? I'm sure he is. This guy's written books about national security. Mike Waltz was a congressman and he's editor in chief of a major magazine. There's no way that Mike Waltz wouldn't have.

4:21I've never heard of the guy. I've never spoken to the guy. The guy is filth. I've never heard of the guy. I mean, I wish I could go through the video and see of the times when I've seen, you know, fine times where Mike Waltz and Jeffrey Goldberg have been in the same room together. But I don't think it'll take very long before the Internet does that for us. I am going to extinguish my soul in the lying for Donald Trump. I want to get into the Kabuki theater known as the cabinet room. And I'm going to extinguish. I'm going to practice on Fox News. I mean, and God bless Laura Ingram, by the way, because Laura Ingram is trying really hard to stay in line with state television, but she can't do it because she's like, look at that.

5:01I'm like, what are you talking about? All right. I'm sorry I interrupted you, but I got to ask you as a journalist, you know how full of shit this story is, right? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, and Laura also has had, we've all, every journalist in Washington has interviewed members of the intel community, whether they're members of Congress or people in the CIA or in the Department of Defense. And so to sit there and say there is nothing classified here, that is almost impossible for anyone who would call themselves a journalist to do. I mean, and it doesn't pass the smell test, right? We know that if you release to any conversation about when the bombs are going to drop, the target is in the right position.

5:41I mean, Houthis are not a joke. They have anti-aircraft missiles. Those planes were manned, as we all know by now. They could have shot down. They could have positioned themselves to take retaliatory action if they'd got hold of that signal. If the Russians had decided to give them, having broken into Steve Witkoff, the Ukraine advisor who was in Moscow at the time, all the Russians needed to do was listen in on Steve Wittkos' phone, which I'm sure they do, you're in Moscow for God's sake, and say to the Houthis, okay, by the way, those American planes, they'll be over you in half an hour. I mean, of course this doesn't pass any smell test that this wasn't classified, but to what I was saying about the transatlantic thing, it's one of those stories that is being viewed quite differently from both sides of the Atlantic.

6:25In Washington, this is a story about, is becoming a story about process. about how national security decisions are made, who is in the loop, what is classified and what is not classified, the conversation that we've just been having. We can talk about what that means for Democrats in a little bit. But on the other side of the Atlantic, over in Europe, the top headline from these text messages is that even in private, J.D. Vance hates Europe. I mean, the disdain for European allies, who may, by the way, now be thinking, hold on a second, how much am I going to share with the Pentagon? Because who knows where it's going to go.

7:05But the way he talks about Europe and freeloading and, you know, how disgusting it is and how spineless they are. I think that's it's just a story that is being viewed differently and has different consequences. And once we've got through the process stage of this story, I think that is the long-term impact of this story is the realization for Europeans, again, that they've got to get their own security together because they cannot rely on America. I'm going to channel our brothers at The Rest is Classified for a second and ask you a question. So now you and I are sitting at MI6 and I turn to you as my colleague and say, okay, so obviously the Russians lifted Witkoff's phone.

7:46They know these imbeciles are on signal chatting with each other. And just take you back to Enigma. We cracked the code. The Brits in Bletchley cracked the code. And they let a lot of bombings happen, frankly. They didn't prevent a lot of bombings because they had the code. And so why would the Russians let the Houthis know? Let them bomb the Houthis. Let them think that they're okay. Let's lull these imbeciles into thinking that we don't have them completely cracked. And your response to that is what? No, I mean, I think you're probably right on that one. Would the Russians stick their neck out for the Houthis?

8:25Depends how much their Iranian brethren wanted them to do so. Maybe they wouldn't pass that information on. But I don't think there are many people in the rest is classifieds world who don't think that the Russians at least are looking at Steve Wyckoff's phone while he's there and would then have that information. And who knows, Anthony, we don't know how many other, and we were joking at the top about, oh, I'm on a group chat, you're on a group chat. We genuinely don't know how many other group chats there have been. How many other times members of the national security team who are on those group chats are traveling to countries where the host country might want to listen in on what the Americans are saying and capture what is on their signal chat.

9:06We don't know. We don't know what information this gives away. And I think that's the real rest is classified concern here is that if I'm sitting in the UK, it's a bit reminded me a little bit of the Mar-a-Lago documents case, that the argument that I kept hearing from national security teams was, would you hand your, would this have any impact on your willingness as an ally to hand over secrets to America if you knew that it could end up on a group challenge? with a journalist, right? I think there's a chance if you're in the UK and therefore end up in the hands of Moscow, right? I mean, this stuff is classified for a reason.

9:48I admire Jeff. I admire him for his restraint. I admire him for his patriotism and they can say whatever they want about him. And obviously they're viciously attacking him and so forth. That's the playbook, isn't it? That's the playbook. I have two more questions for you. So first question is, get inside Donald Trump's head for a minute. Oh my God, that's what you do. That's your job. Yeah, but I want you to because you have a different insight from me. Get inside his head for a minute. He has to be horrified by this. It makes him look terrible. He's going to support these people because of the loyalty thing and he can't find other people that are going to disembowel themselves like these people.

10:31But he's got to be horrified by this, no? Or do you think he doesn't care? It just makes him look terrible, Kat. So let's flip this. I was texting with a Democratic congresswoman last night about this story. And she said, look, when we're arguing about process, which we are at this stage, and you listen to all the senior Democrats who have come out on television this week to say, this is terrible, and it should be the normal procedure for doing this as you get into a skiff, and then you get into the situation room, and you bring in all the departments. And as soon as you go down that route, this very smart Congresswoman pointed out to me, you're on a losing basis.

11:19Process, an argument about process has very little impact on voters. And what Donald Trump, I believe, will care about is not whether this is shoddy national security protocols or makes his administration look like they're playing fast and loose with the national security procedure or makes them perhaps even look not particularly competent in the way they handle these things. What he'll care about is whether this is going to blow over. Can he ride this one out by doing the kinds of things that he's done this weak, you know, deflect, deny, never apologize. I don't think he'll be sitting there in paroxysms of angst about the fact that his national security team has behaved in this way.

12:05There's nobody on staff to say the following, but I'm going to say it to you and I want you to react. Okay. Mr. President, the entire national security apparatus, the communication apparatus has now been compromised, a result of which they may have information on these phones from your team that could damage US troops in the field. We have to switch this whole thing up and possibly let a few of these people go. And you say, I say, the liberal media is making a storm in a teacup out of this. It's really no big deal. And look, we've shown the American people that we did the right thing. We bombed the bad guys.

12:46Bombing bad guys is popular with American voters. By the way, look how long it took for President Bush to be held accountable over Iraq to the extent that he ever was. We can get away with this because we'll paint it as strength, muscularity. We dropped the bombs. The mission was a success. And in the end, the voters won't really care very much about this. I mean, that is my understanding of the conversation that is taking place in the White House at the moment around Donald Trump. This is, for me, it's laughable. And I think adversaries and allies - But you don't think that's how he's thinking?

13:19I do. I just wanted you to say it because I'm often saying it and people probably accusing me that I'm too much on the anti-Trump rant. I'm not, I'm just trying to be objective about it, but I just think it's embarrassing to our allies. And I think it's very comforting to our adversaries that we're in a situation like this. Now, switch hats for a second. You're now european yeah and uh i'm going to read you these text messages and i want you to react to them okay vance has said i just hate bailing out europe again and hexeth wrote back i fully share your loathing of european freeloading it's pathetic in all caps okay channel your europeanness and i want you to respond to that this is the bit of the text exchange that i immediately took more notice of because clearly J.D.

14:09Vance thinks in private what he thinks in public. The fact that he's joining the trip to Greenland this week is another reminder of his kind of aggressive approach towards Europeans. If I'm Chancellor Mertz sitting there in Germany, there is some glimmer of a world in which I'm thinking, okay, all of these things that you and I spoke about that Mertz needs to get done to help with the rearming of Germany, but also creating the security umbrella for Europe. This is weirdly helpful. I mean, this is actually something that adds more sense of urgency. It reminds European, this has obviously been all over the European press.

14:50Again, Donald Trump, well done. You've the only topic of conversation in Europe this week. And if J.D. Vance were to be the heir apparent, which many Europeans think he may be, then I think this is yet again a reminder that they have to get their security act together. You know, we can go into how much of the shipping that goes through the Suez Canal is actually, which they do on this text chain, is European versus how much of it is American. But, you know, to some extent, Anthony, this administration's biggest weakness is not accepting that things are global. So if European shipping is massively impacted, in some ways that will affect American consumers and voters as well.

15:34It's just the way the world works. You can't totally separate out, oh, well, that's Europe's problem, so it has no impact on America. Things travel, literally, in this case. Well, I'm going to make your point with a little bit more emphasis, the historian Nigel Hamilton wrote a trilogy of Franklin Roosevelt. He basically, Roosevelt didn't get a chance to write his war memoir. So the British historian went to the library, went to all of the writings and the interviews, and he effectively wrote for Roosevelt what his war memoirs would look like. Sort of a Churchillian rendition from Franklin Roosevelt's side.

16:10And one of the most interesting things about it is in the third book, Roosevelt is trying to put together the UN. He's got the ideas for it. He's taken elements of the League of Nations, which failed. And of course, he worked for Wilson as an assistant Navy secretary at the time. And he says to his staff, we have to integrate with the rest of the world. If we integrate with the rest of the world and we interlock with each other, there's a greater likelihood to reduce conflict. There's a greater likelihood that living standards around the world will rise, a result of which we won't be fighting with each other.

16:46Okay, so everything that you just said has been the workable dream of these neo-Victorians that set up the post-World War II order. Now you've got this 40-year-old Vance is coming into the game late without the historical knowledge and he's saying these nonsensical things. I think they get on the drums and they try to out-Trump Trump with the drums. And so I think this nonsense in the group chat, Vance, Waltz, Hexeth, Rubio, I got to out-Trump Trump. Remember, you have to outshine the master with his ideology because you are under the gun. You have to have an ideological purity test. You know, somebody told me that they've got some lackey running around the world with Rubio, who's a MAGA lackey, and he's taking notes and like a stenographer to make sure that Rubio is on message because Trump doesn't trust him.

17:44He called his hands little in 2016. And so you got to make sure he's barking and singing off the MAGA chorus sheet. But this stuff is actually, to me, is pathetic. It's actually embarrassing. And then the flip side is state television over at Fox is saying, isn't this amazing that we're getting a firsthand view of our leaders interacting with each other in such great orchestration? I mean, I feel like I'm in Alice in Wonderland. I feel like I'm in a hall of mirrors. I often have this thinking of, you know, what if this was Barack Obama's national security team? What would Fox News be saying? And it's worth kind of going down that thought process for a second.

18:26I want to ask you what you think this means longer term. Democrats this week are clearly trying to make this a big deal. I mean, they cannot get themselves off television over this. But one congressperson pointed out to me, look, take a kind of step back from this a little bit, because we're going to talk about the economy in the second half of the show. But only 1 % of Americans are in active service and only 7 % of Americans are veterans. Now, maybe that 7 % is the more important group of veterans. But a lot of Americans are not actually thinking about OPSEC, operational security, and what the processes should be.

19:11What they're hearing, and I sent around to our producers and to you, Anthony, this week, the kind of graph that shows how many more people are listening to right wing online media compared to more left wing online media in America at the moment. What they are hearing is that muscularity argument. So I don't know how much Democrats can make out of this. I don't know that they're trying to find a kind of message with everything that goes wrong. They're trying to find a message. And I think the most compelling that I've heard from a Democrat so far, a senior Democrat so far on television, was tying this into a broader picture of incompetence.

19:53And you can run through the list of the stuff that Doge has done that doesn't make some tiny stuff like they wiped references to Enola Gay, the aircraft that dropped the bomb on Hiroshima at the end of the Second World War, because it had the word gay in it. I mean, that's a stupid example, but I use it because it's so graphic and shows how kind of unthought out this is. Now, what the administration clearly, these guys, and you can read it in this text process, they sound like, as one Democrat said to me, this sounds like a kind of bunch of guys in a locker room coming up with the next play on the field.

20:27I mean, it doesn't sound like serious national security stuff. And they think that's the point, that they're breaking the systems, they're doing things in an unorthodox way. They're bringing outsiders hats, the kind of move fast and break stuff motto that they all seem to have. But I think the question is, is that working? I would say no. The national security wins on Gaza don't look so great at the moment. There is clearly not, you know, peace in Ukraine yet. And if it's not working, how can Democrats kind of harness the messaging around this? How could they point to that? Or does it really just not make much difference to American voters?

21:06Well, I mean, I think I think you're bringing up the fact that which we all know is that the country's in sore need of national service, because when we have national service, we were in better shape and people are more conjoined when we don't have it. We don't have it. But I would flip it back to Senator Wicker, Roger Wicker, who from I believe is from Oklahoma. Oklahoma. He's the head of the Senate Armed Services Committee. He's a Republican, a responsible Republican that understands the Constitution would offer a check to this situation and would formalize an investigation. And so now the question is, is he too in the tank for MAGA, or is he a process person that believes in the U.S.

21:48Constitution? And I think we're waiting on him to see what he's going to do. But an investigation here, and as you and I are speaking, the Atlantic Magazine is leaking more texts to prove, some of it redacted, but to prove that Secretary Hexeth is lying. Secretary Hexeth is lying. War plans were in the chat. Secretary Hexeth yesterday, no war plans were in the chat. So we know they're all lying. They're lying right to our faces, and Trump is allowing them to triple down on the lie. But this is where the founders would have said, okay, is Senator Wicker going to be the guy, Profile and Courage, where he says, hey, I'm sorry, guys.

22:31This is against the interests of the United States and our global alliances, and we have to reject this. And a few of you have got to get fired, and we have to fix this. The same way you guys would have gone after Hillary Clinton's server or other things that happen that were Democrat incompetence. Let's see what the political fallout is from this and whether actually anyone gets fired. We're still kind of in the early days of watching this story. I suspect there may be more that we'll be talking about next week on this as well. We'll be back after a quick break to talk about the economy. Is that what the voters really care about?

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24:39of London. We'll be uncovering it all. And we'll have characters and stories that have been forgotten, but shouldn't have been. This week, we've got one of my favorites, Victoria Woodhull, the first woman to run for US president all the way back in 1872, 50 years before American women could even vote. She was also the first woman to address Congress and to open a brokerage on Wall Street, where she made a fortune. It's an incredible story, but it is also full of contradictions. She was a trailblazing woman in politics, but later in life, she also turned to the pseudoscience of eugenics. So join us on Journey Through Time and hear a clip from the Victoria Woodhull story at the end of this episode.

25:31Welcome back to The Rest is Politics US. I'm Anthony Scaramucci. I am Katty Kay. Katty, we're going to talk about Trump's economic, some would say nightmare, others would say golden age, but it feels heavy, Katty. There's a little bit of stagflation in the marketplace. Prices are sticky upwards, and yet unemployment is creeping up. We're now into the 50 % threshold on Wall Street about whether or not there will be a recession. On January 20th, nobody thought there would be a recession for 2025, but the rhetoric and the jawboning from the administration has spooked people. At the same time that that's going on, we're seeing massive capital allocation sending to Europe.

26:16How ironic is that, Katty? Talk about that for a second. The DAX, Germany on the verge of a recession, the DAX is the best performing stock market. That's, of course, the German stock market. So what say you about the Trump rhetoric and the Trump economic policy? Two things. I'm going to channel my inner Anthony and have a list, although mine is only too long. As soon as the story, and this is relating what we're talking about in the first half to what we're talking about now, as soon as that story broke about the Atlantic's text, I had an economist from Europe text me saying, you see, it's time to buy German shares, invest in Rheinmetall, which is the big German defense prime.

26:56I mean, he was only kind half joking, but not really because of what you say. I mean, the irony of JD Vance saying, you know, he hates snivelling Europeans, doing everything to boost the German stock market and the sense of energy around European shares. It's nobody has not noticed the fact that while Wall Street is declining, the European stock markets are doing better. Second thing is that just before the election last November, The Economist ran The Economist magazine, which has been, you know, fair on Trump and really tries to pull its cool balls and strikes, as you would say, ran a big cover article saying whoever is the next president is going to inherit a really strong American economy.