83. 100 Days of Trump: What's The Damage?

0:28This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance.

0:34Hi, everybody. Welcome to our founding members live stream. Starting a little late today, that actually was a technical hitch, not any issues of alarm clocks not ringing. So, hi, I'm Catty. All right, it's my fault again, but we're here. How are you, Catty? I am very good. I'm delighted to be here. But look, we got people from Portland, Maine, San Antonio, Texas, Warsaw. I mean, I don't know. I feel like I was displaced like immediately by you. I mean, it wasn't even like if you're a founding member and you do listen to the podcast, I just want to reference this. At the break, Katty said, who was the other host?

1:19We're going to have to. This is going to be. Am I going to have to pay the therapy bills around this one? Because this is about the 10th time you have raised this with me. Who says that? When Alistair replaced you, did I say, like, who's the other host? You gave me such a hard time for taking one week off over Thanksgiving. No, look, I think it's a reflection of your incredible - I'm getting over it. I'm getting over it. Yeah, in about a year. I think it's a very good reflection of how much you are loved on this podcast by every single person who is signing in right now to join you, that there is no chance of you ever being replaced even by the lovely Michael Steele, and it was who is a friend of both of ours.

1:58Well, I love Michael. Obviously, remember, there's no such thing as teasing and jest. Everything that's said is serious, Katty. So I was definitely hurt, but it's fine. I'm getting over it. All right, so what are we talking about, Katty? The first 100 days of Donald Trump? We are going to talk about the first 100 days and what we think are the most significant things. But before we do that, we have a very exciting announcement, hot off the press. Mark your calendars, everybody, because on July the 16th, Anthony and I are going to be taking to the stage in London for one night and one night only for the Rest is Politics US live show.

2:37I'm very excited about this. It is going to be in London. It's going to be fantastic. Tickets are going on sale this Friday, the 2nd of May from 9 a.m. But for our founding members, you can access the pre-sale of tickets on Wednesday, April the 30th at 9 a.m. Get your finger on the buzzer. And if you are not a founding member, just go to the restispoliticsus.com to sign up and you'll get the pre-sale link to that show. We're looking forward to being together in London in the middle of July. So cancel your summer plans. Don't go to Mallorca. Don't go to wherever you think you're not going to go to America because no one's coming to America anymore.

3:17I thought the Mallorca stuff was in August though, right? The Brits take - Yeah, we take a lot of holidays. Take July off too? Okay. Anyway, cancel all of those plans. July 16th, we will be in London. So you're right, Anthony, I thought it was a good idea. Tomorrow is the 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency. I think it's fair to say that this has been a 100 days unlike any other president I've certainly ever covered, and I've covered a few here in America. And I wondered what you, if you had to, and I just thought it was kind of interesting exercise for myself, and I was wondering what you thought, if you had to kind of go through those 100 days and think, what are the most, what's the most consequential thing that Donald Trump did during the last three months?

4:06What would you point to? You know, I've been criticized by some MAGA Republicans. They write to me, they talk to me, say, you're not balanced. You dislike Donald Trump and everything about him. And it's true. I do dislike Donald Trump and just about everything about him. So but let's be balanced for a moment. I think the most significant things he's done that are positive are at the border. If I'm just being brutally honest with people, if you have a welfare state, the U.S. has a welfare state, you have to secure the border. I'm all for legal immigration, but I do think that illegal immigration will upset the apple card of any country.

4:44And if you look at that throughout history, that is the case. And so border crossings are down. The flight to the border is down as a result of the measures that have been taken. And I think that's a very big positive thing for the country. Up against that, though, I think he is botching and mishandling the trade situation. I do believe that he is causing unnecessarily a trade war. Look, economies roll over, Katya. You have cyclical economies in capitalist societies and in the world, and so you would eventually get to a recession. But I think he has forced a recession more quickly as a result of this.

5:25And I think even as I'm watching people like Scott Bessent talk today on CNBC, they really don't have a plan. They actually don't know what they're doing. And I think that's going to be the legacy piece. And I think, tell us about his approval ratings while I have you on here. I mean, how is his approval ratings going for the first 100 days? Well, it's down. I mean, there's been a slew of polls that came out right over the weekend that all have his approval ratings down. And they kind of point to the same thing, which is a certain amount of chaos. And what you just said, I think it's true that there isn't much of a strategy or a plan, particularly around the economy.

6:01And people are feeling that insecurity. They like, they actually, you dig into these polls that have his approval ratings, many of them in the kind of 30s, low 40s. They like the objective of much of what he's doing. They like the objective of the border being more secure. Like you said, they like the objective, actually, many of them of rebalancing the global economy. And they actually like the tariffs. But in both cases, there are problems. And they don't really like the fact that there's no due process. Those personal stories seem to be breaking through. and they don't like the chaos. I mean, I think that it's the, people are picking up that sense of, is it lack of competence?

6:38Is it lack of strategy? Is it an abundance of chaos? And I guess it makes people a little nervous. If I had to point to the most consequential thing, I know you were about to ask me, but if I had to point to what I think is the most consequential thing, Michael Steele would have asked me at that point. It's always a Michael too, by the way. Have you seen the comments from you? I've got to have some people that have sympathy for me. There has. Manda Sykes says. I mean, was your last husband's name Michael or is your like future husband's name Michael? There's always a Michael involved here somehow.

7:13Thanks. We love you both. Anthony, we couldn't replace you. Okay. There you go. Feeling better? Slightly better, man. By the way, all of you who are on the live chat, if you could just send a little bit more of those kind of things, it would make my life easier coming up because I can't tell you how much I'm having to do the therapy by myself. So if you could jump in and help out, that would be great. What is the most significant thing? Go ahead, Kat. Tell me. So I actually think it's the speed with which Donald Trump's first hundred days has undermined America's position in the world. The way that other countries, allies and adversaries alike are now starting to doubt America's supremacy.

8:02And part of that is the tariff story. But it's also other things like the lack of investment long-term in healthcare that's going to undermine America's long-term competitiveness. And I'm going to point to something which happened very early on and which kind of got very little resistance here, but I think is worth pointing out. And that's the cutting of America's aid, international aid budget. And we are already getting reports from Africa. American foreign aid was quarter of Africa's aid budget of people in Somalia and Sudan who are being directly impacted. There are people who have died because USAID was shut down.

8:42And I don't think Americans want that. I don't think the stories perhaps have broken through because so much has happened because Elon Musk did it so quickly at a time that other... That's my phone. It's Michael Steele calling. Michael, she's on a live stream. Can you wait till the live stream's over? He's going to join us when you have to leave. It's truly unbelievable. So I think I would say that. I think it's America's standing in the world, the view of America as a global leader, the degree to which China has been able to step in in places like Africa to replace America, the degree to which Xi Jinping can travel around Asia and portray China as the reliable superpower.

9:24And it's kind of the combination of the ways that have led to that, the USAID, the healthcare, the tariffs. But America's position has really been upended. So a lot there. Let's go to the educational system. He's putting a lot of pressure in the colleges, which many people around the United States and frankly around the world think that the university system in the United States is second to none. But now he's effectively wreaking havoc there as well. So let's be Donald Trump for a second. Let's channel him for a second. He thinks he's had a fabulous 100 days. So what would Donald Trump say if you brought him on here and said, Mr.

10:09President, you've had a fabulous 100 days. Tell us your highlights. What would he say? These are all good things that he's doing? The economy is going to go into recession. It's a good thing because why? But he would say that, as he has said, that a certain amount of pain is needed in order to have the radical transformation of the American economy that brings manufacturing and jobs back to the United States. And that's what he said in public. He's given a series of interviews with prominent American publications to mark the 100 days. And in one of them, he was pressed on what you're concerned about.

10:48And he pressed about whether there are any red lines. If he pushes the tariffs when the pause comes off and things start to go badly, predictions of growth fall, the dollar falls, the markets fall, is there a red line at which he would pull back. And he said, no. Now, he says no. Is that true? We saw him pull back because the pain got too high last time. But I think he would say that this is what's needed. His administration feels, maybe since the role of the terrorists, they're a little more nervous, but people I have spoken to close to Trump feel that this has been an incredibly successful period of reinvention for America, both on the border and in the economy.

11:32So I'm going to interrupt for a second. One of my classmates from Tufts is on here, David Geller. Thanks for joining. Hi, David. It's an interesting question. There are some purple district members of the House. They're in purple districts, and it's getting dicey for Republicans in those districts. Lots of protest-oriented town halls. Do you think any of them would have the, quote-unquote, guts to switch parties? What do you think, Katie? No. I don't think at the moment there's any chance of House Republicans switching parties. I mean, they've got to try and run a little bit distant from Donald Trump, but they're not running as distant from him as they did in the first administration.

12:13I can't see any of them. You can't be in the Republican Party at the moment. And this is the other thing that the recent polls have shown us is how MAGA has overtaken the Republican Party. Do you think they would do? I don't. No, I agree with Cady on that, David. I think that people are missile locked into their positions and they're going to try to, you know, they're hoping that gerrymandering has helped them a little bit and they're going to try to make the bet that the commotion that we're feeling now may settle as we get towards the midterm. We still have ways to go, frankly. So, you know, 19, 20 months until the midterms, I think it'll be a whole different landscape by then.

12:56And there's been so much that's been extraordinary about the first 100 days. But one of them, of course, has been Elon Musk and Doge, which we're going to talk about in our series that's coming up. But Caroline B is asking, how much damage may have been caused by bringing Musk on board? And that's, I guess, two questions, right? I mean, it's how much damage has been done to the American system. And I always kind of think of it as the scaffolding of American government, but also how much damage has been done politically to Donald Trump because of Doge. What do you think the lasting impact of Doge will be, Anthony?

13:32Well, I think we've been right about Doge, if I can pat us on the back for a second. I think you and I said in the outset, Doge would come on like gangbusters. They wouldn't really be able to do much and it would slowly fizzle. And so Elon said he was going to save us$2 trillion, then it went to$1 trillion. Now he's saying$160 billion, but it looks like it's probably$30 to$50 billion. and unfortunately they're cutting things that help us on the soft power side. So the USAID as an example, helping us on the soft power. And again, I'm not saying that they haven't found some fraud and they haven't found some redundancy, but there was a much smarter way to do this.

14:12They could have gone back to the Al Gore, Bill Clinton way of doing things and gotten way more done. And so, yeah, I think he's hurt and I think he's set up a situation where where if it's even possible, Caddy, there's more cynicism in the government today as opposed to less. I think if you'd asked me five years ago, are Americans generally cynical about their government? I would have said, yes. Could it get worse? Well, geez, I don't really know how it would get much worse than this. But here we are in 2025. I could tell you, yes, it's way worse. Suzanne, by the way, Holick, Anthony, you're amazing sending praise from New Zealand.

14:51Oh, my God. You see, Suzanne, you have to understand, but she's going to use this stuff against me, Suzanne. No, it's so nice. It's very nice. Linda W., how will the savings from Doge cuts be felt by average Americans? Linda, that's a great question. And I do think it's worth just spending it in the context of this remarkable 100 days. We've talked about the tariffs. We've talked about the border. We've talked about America's reputation, USAID. And I think it's worth dwelling on Doge a little bit because it has been this extraordinary project of this guy who was not elected, this billionaire coming in by storm to Washington with this group of young engineers around him and accessing people's data in federal bureaucracies, cutting entire federal bureaucracies.

15:37We mentioned USAID, but every single bureaucracy has been impacted by this. And I want just briefly from the context of Washington, it's not fashionable in America to talk about any pain that Washington is feeling. But this city has been just hit so badly by this. I mean, we know in my family, I know two people who have been impacted by the cuts that Doge has implemented. I know several people who have lost their jobs. I know families where both people were government employees who have young kids who have lost their jobs. That has a knock-on effect into the restaurant business, into the grocery stores, into rental apartments.

16:17I mean, this feels like a hurricane that has come through this city in a way that it didn't in the first time around. But I think you can multiply that. This is my experience living in Washington. There are federal employees all over this country. And I don't think that necessarily people are feeling the savings, partly because actually the latest reporting is that Doge is saying it didn't save$2 trillion. It saved, what,$1.6 billion, Marietta, Anthony. But actually, there's also about$1.4 billion of costs associated with what they've done. I mean, they may end up costing the American taxpayer more than they've saved the American taxpayer at this point.

16:52And they've caused a lot of harm to people in the process. You know, I think that's the irony. The government's big. The government's cumbersome. Some parts of the government may not look necessary. But I think business leaders always have the same mistake. We're going to come in and we're going to try to make things businesslike. And you can't really do that in government. It's a non-for-profit thing. And a lot of things that are happening sometimes in the government are happening for reasons that you don't necessarily see right away, but they are connected. If you want to help people in Africa, well, guess what?

17:26The spread of pandemics may be reduced, which affects the quality of life here in the United States. I want to go to Shiraz Petrovic, if you don't mind. It's actually a really good question. And I wanted to ask you this actually over the weekend. So we'll ask it now. Michael Steele brought up something fascinating in the last podcast, and this is about the Reagan-Bush Republicans, Cady. Is there going to be a civil war? Assuming that Donald Trump is not running for a third term and we don't have a constitutional catastrophe, is there going to be a fight for the Republican Party of a Reagan-Bush redo, or is it going to stay full on MAGA?

18:08And does the party have any chance of returning to any prior type of philosophy. So Michael brought up how much it costs in the American system to bring out, to have a third party. You told me offline that you thought it would, he estimated about a billion. You thought it would probably be more than that. So I don't think the third party is an option. So then the question is, does the Republican party go back to what it was? I'm in two minds about this. I think there are various scenarios. One is that this MAGA really is about Trump. A lot of it is about Trump, the individual. The love of Trump is huge.

18:46And that's why he can do things that other people can't do and get away with things that other people can't get away with and get away with contradictions. For example, with the evangelical community that others can't because there is a sort of cult love of, I don't like the word cult, but there is a real, it's very emotional attachment to Donald Trump, the person. And I don't see that transferring necessarily to J.D. Vance or even Pete Hegseth. They don't have his entertainment value. They're not as famous. They don't have his stature. They don't have his charisma. So then the question is, once Trump is out of the picture, what happens to all of the populism that Trump embodies?

19:24I think that's with us for a while. And you can see it actually creeping into the Democratic Party too. So some of the things that Trump has tried to do, you can see Democrats doing, you can see the Democratic Party moving to the right on things like immigration, for example, becoming more protectionist. And it was all those Democrats that were more protectionist, but becoming more protectionist. I don't think if the tariffs hold on China, will they be lifted? Joe Biden didn't lift them, for example. So I don't think it's going to be the same. I don't think the fear factor will be the same because I don't think whoever is leading the party will have the same degree of control.

19:57So Luke is, Claire Howard is saying sort of the same thing, right? Michael Steele is saying that there's going to be a fight to recapture the GOP. And you're saying that its GOP has gone MAGA, right? It's not going to ever come back? I think it'll be interesting to see how much hold the next leader of the Republican Party has over the party. Will you start to get some of those purple state Republicans, business leaders, media figures feeling more emboldened to speak up? because that's why it's not that all of these purple Republicans love Donald Trump. Don't mistake that for what's actually happening.

20:37They don't love Donald Trump. They're just afraid. Now, if the fear factor goes because they have a weaker leader, then that's an interesting question. Then what happens to the party? Does it swing back to its more traditional roots? I don't know on that one. I don't know. I think it'll be interesting to see what happens. What's your sense on that? It would have to be some very bold, charismatic figure, he or she, that I have yet to come in contact with that shakes the party in a way that I don't see. I see the trajectory and I see the money and the fact that the Trump family is controlling the RNC.

21:17I see it as very hard. I love the idea of it and I would love to have that fight. I'd love to have that litigation. But I think they've baked into the cake already things where it's going to be hard to reverse it. But I want to switch gears for a second and ask you something from your perspective because you are European, you're British, but you lived here for a quarter of a century. The ships are coming back from China empty. You know this, I know this, the port city of Seattle. There's no activity going on in the port city of Seattle. So it's not down 50%, it's down 90%. And so is there a supply shock on the way for the Americans in terms of their businesses, small businesses, retailers, Walmart, Americans themselves trying to get things?

22:12I know that people are complaining about having problems getting pharmaceuticals. A lot of these pharmaceuticals are made in China and they go to their local Walgreens. They say, I need XYZ. See, that's great. It's a week from now, but I'm sick right now. Oh no, we don't have the supply. We're trying to source it from other countries. We're trying to source drugs that are coming from China into Mexico from Mexico right now. That's what I'm hearing. So it's going to be a problem. Kat, why don't you put your lens on as an American? Is this a problem as a resident here in America. Yeah, I think, I mean, it's a huge problem.

22:46People are talking about Donald Trump as the Grinch who steals Christmas, right? That this could be a very slim picking Christmas for toys for kids if the supply chain isn't figured out and if the tariffs are maintained. And the irony, of course, is that we've just come out of a supply chain crunch that actually part of what the Biden administration did with all that money they spent that caused the inflation in part, is they tried to rectify the supply chain problem that America realized it had after COVID. And now we're looking at another supply chain problem and American businesses, I mean, they were in the White House last week, the big box businesses, the Walmarts and the CEOs of the major companies saying, we are looking at empty shelves.

23:28And I do think that would be a, as somebody who lives in this country, there's very little tolerance in America for not being able to buy the stuff you want to buy when you want to buy it. There is not in this country. People want stuff and they want the stuff they want now. So if they start going into Walmart or Target and they can't buy all their drugstore and they can't buy it, I think that is one of the pain points at which Donald Trump starts to feel. I know that you have a plane to catch, and I'm conscious of that, Anthony. But let's answer a couple of these questions. Okay, because they're really good questions.

24:05Project 2000. I'm going to go quickly on these, and then you pick a few. Sophie, are Project 2025 founders using Trump, or is he using them? The answer is both. But Project 2025, in my opinion, are using Trump way more. Lynn Hayes, can you talk about Michael Steele? We did that. We think there's going to be a big fight, but I think the MAGA people are going to win the party. And if the Democrats don't get their, you know, what together, they're going to have a hard time because too disorganized for the Democrats. They could actually beat these guys. Let me take another one quickly on Ukraine because we saw some interesting news on that.

24:41What is your take on – Peter Korachan is asking, what's your take on Trump's seeming change in tune on Ukraine and on Putin after the Vatican meetup with Zelensky? It was a remarkable photograph. Donald Trump giving tougher language and seems to have set almost an ultimatum saying stop to Vladimir Putin with the missiles into Ukraine. So now, in a way, Donald Trump has set himself up with a red line. If Putin is to carry on, what does Trump do? Does he walk away from the negotiations? Does he try now really to give more of a stick to Putin and try to get Russia to the table and a bit more of a carrot to the Ukrainians?

25:24Let's see. I think if he doesn't, then the words that we saw over this weekend are a little hollow. And we know that he's capable of flip-flopping on that one. I want to ask one more. There was a great one on the Canadian elections on whether if Mark Carney is elected, would you take a role? And he called you up, your friend Mark Carney. Me? Yes. Would you take a role in the Canadian government? Are you even allowed to do that as an American? Well, maybe. I don't know if you're allowed to be prime minister, but I don't know that you couldn't take a role in the Canadian government. This is what I want you to do for me.

25:57Okay. This is what I want you to do for me. I want you to be my cutout because you work in Washington. You know what a cutout is. I want you to call Prime Minister Carney and say that your podcast partner just needs one day in North America as a comms director, which would make an even dozen days in North America as a comms director. This way, if he says no. That's true. This way, if he says no, Katya, I have plausible deniability that I didn't ask you to do that for me. Yeah, but now you framed it like that. I'm not sure you are the number one comms director in terms of longevity. that a leader would necessarily go to.