128. Local Elections: Who's the real winner?

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1:06Welcome on Friday for a special emergency RESTIS Politics podcast with me, Alistair Campbell. And me, Rory Stewart. And rather weirdly, we pushed the emergency podcast button, but this date had been in the diary for quite a long time, hadn't it? We did sort of know the local elections were coming. It wasn't quite like one of our resignation emergency podcasts. No, but I think the reason why a lot of our listeners started to say we'd like to hear what you think is because what always happens in the wake of any election, but particularly local elections, I think, is that the parties nationally have their narrative and they try to dare I say spin it in a way that is most conducive to their morale and their effectiveness, etc.

1:52And so I think it is one of those days where there's actually quite a lot of crap to cut through. And actually it's surprisingly difficult making sense the whole thing isn't it? So local elections, just a quick explainer on local elections people, these are elections happening for district councils or county councils, or sometimes unified councils up and down the country. Some of those council seats traditionally were independent, but increasingly almost all the seats are contested between the different parties. And there's often quite a strong relationship between the way that people perform in the local council elections and the run -up to a general election.

2:30General election, so that's one thing they worry about. But the second thing, of course, is local councils really matter in and of themselves. So we shouldn't just be reading it in terms of national elections. Absolutely. It is infuriating how that always happens straight away. And infuriating for the local council is because obviously they have very, very different visions on how they want to run their local council. in a one party might be pushing to be tighter on the finances and other one might be pushing ahead with green climate initiatives etc etc etc. So what's your sense of it so far? I think it's been worse than the Tories expected for the Tories.

3:04We said in the podcast last week that earlier this week that we thought Oliver Downen was talking about a thousand losses, which would have been the third of every seat they were fighting or defending, a thousand losses. And we thought that was him playing a game that they were thinking maybe a lot less than that and the bell to sort of say it was better than expected. I don't know what the final tally is going to be, but it's going to be not far off that. I'm actually sitting in the offices of the new European Rory where I've just signed a thousand books because that's their next gift to new subscribers.

3:40and they did a thing asking people how many books they thought were there, and I just gave a hint saying it's a little bit more than the number of seats the Tories are going to lose. So that's a free plug for the new European, we'll give them a better sponsorship plug later. But I think that that expectation game is backfired a little bit for the Tories, there's no way they can say this is anything other than bad. And as you said on the main podcast, they're coming from that place where Theresa May was leader where they were said at the time to be catastrophically bad anyway. The BBC is saying the overall projected share at the moment was Labour on 35 conserved his 26, Lib Dems 20, which is interesting, and others 19.

4:24And it's worth just focusing on the others for a minute because there'd be other big difference. The Greens have done pretty well, but the other thing that happens in local elections, that happens a lot less in national elections, is the independence do pick up a lot of votes and do sometimes control, control councils. But I think it's been very, very bad for the Tories. Good for labor, good for the Lib Dems, and to some extent, for the Greens. Labor seemed to me to be doing well in the places that they've been targeting, and the Lib Dems are being doing well in the places they've been targeting.

4:54So just in case anybody thought you might be spinning a little bit for labor there, let's try to give the counter narrative here. And the counter narrative here is... All I said was that labor did well. No, you can't dispute that. The counter narrative is that for labor to be in the kind of positions you were in in 97, in 97 labor at the stage were coming out of a 95 local council election, which you'll remember very well. And you remember what share of the vote you got in 95? I had them 35. Yeah, you got 46. Yeah. So you came from 46 and held that. I'm very much. What were the lived - what were the lived - Dems -en?

5:33The result was Labour 46, Conservative 25, Lib Dem 24. And this time, as you say, it looks like it's 35, 26, 20. So the big question is, is this quite enough? And I think Keir Starmer will be a little bit disappointed for people who really want to feel that we're moving that after years of Conservative gum, particularly after a very, very torrid year. Remember, this is the year where they had Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, the catastrophic quasi -coating budget, all this economic damage. They've been in the polls up near 50%. So they would have been looking for a very strong showing to try to demonstrate they could get a landslide.

6:20This is a result that suggests they should be able to get a majority, but it's not a very big majority. So there will be people in labor quite disappointed about this. The only thing I'd say about that, if I can counter that, I've said to you before that for Labour to get from where they were in 2019, to get a majority of one requires a bigger swing than we had in 1997. So I don't think the comparison, I get why you're saying it's not 1997, I get why you make that comparison, but I think a fairer comparison for Labour is what's happened since Keir's time with became leader. Listen, you've heard me say, I'm not pretending that there aren't still huge problems that Labour have in terms of winning over all the people that are there to be won over.

7:04I actually think on the back of these results, Labour should be setting themselves the objective of winning big. Not because, and I agree with you, these results on their own do not suggest the 1997 type landslide. But what they indicate to me is that the big driving narrative that seems to me to be pointing towards the next election are people saying we've just got to get rid of the Tories. There's been a lot of tactical voting going on. That point about the Lib Dems doing well, where they need to do well, Labour doing well, where they need to, not everywhere, for both of them, not everywhere, but I suspect on that is because the Liberal Democrats are really putting their resources into some pretty strategically targeted areas, Labour are doing the same, and people are buying into it much more than they did.

7:51The other problem that you've got, of course, This slightly depends on what happens with the SMP. But the other big change is that Labour is facing a big challenge to take back seats in Scotland. Now, it may be able to do so. Maybe the change from Nicholas Sturgeon to Hamsey Yusuf opens up that opportunity. But that's another reason why this is much trickier than it was in the mid -90s for Labour. I agree with that. However, two things to push back on that. But the two big changes that I always believe had to happen for Labour to start to get some sort of claw back in Scotland, the most important was Scottish people believing that Labour could beat the Tories nationally.

8:29And I think these results will make people think that's possible. And the second thing, it would be that the SNP lose their vice -like grip on politics in Scotland. And that has happened. So that Scotland is open for Labour to do a lot better. This is showing to me as well. The other thing that's really important on this. I, as you know, you keep saying you're a fan of Rishi Soonak. I don't think Rishi Soonak is that good as a Prime Minister or as a leader or as a campaigner. I think he's being judged by the right -wing press in particular as being very, very good because he's much better than his two predecessors.

9:04But it's such a low bar. And for the country, things feel totally stuck. And I wondered, I tweeted this morning a picture that somebody sent me of a queue in Norfolk. And the queue was huge and it was because a dentist had announced that he was going to take on a few extra NHS patients. Now I think issues like that. So when you hear soon that come on the radio this morning and say, and on these politicians, when are they going to grow up? When are they going to understand that the him coming on this morning or Greg Hans coming on saying what people were saying on the doorstep is how much they like Richie Soonak.

9:41And Richie Soonak is saying just repeating his five pledges and talking about stopping the boats. I just think that they're sent, then constantly saying to the people, these are your priorities when they're actually not necessarily the people's priorities. The people's priorities are to get a GP service, are to get their teeth fixed, are to sort of get the litigle of their streets. They're much more prosaic in a way and that's maybe why in these local elections people have felt that the country is just not working is assured. Conservatives obviously just to run through the figures again and remind people what happened.

10:12So 2019 was the catastrophic election. They went from about 5 ,000 seats down to about three and a half thousand and now looks like they may news another thousand. But in between there were the elections in 2021 when the Conservatives actually advanced in the Red Wall, consolidated their positions. So it's a very very interesting thing that's happened because was in a sense, and this is the very unfortunate situation that Rishi Suneak's put himself in, and my friend who I admire in Normacy, David Gork, has written a very good piece in the New States, and about this, which we'll put in the newsletter.

10:52But essentially, Rishi Suneak is facing a real challenge, and the problem is, is he going to fall between two stalls? Because the right of the party is going to be saying, you didn't do as well as Boris Johnson did because you're not being right wing enough because in 21 you know they did well in the Red Wall and they've been knocked back in the Red Wall by Labour these seats up in the North East. But of course people like me on the centre sort of left of the party are going to be saying you haven't done enough to modernise, you haven't got rid of Suwala Brahmann, you haven't demonstrated that you're a party that can really win back the Lib Dem voters because the story that we haven't really talked about is extraordinary Lib Dem successes, particularly in these remain commuter zones around London, places like Hertfordshire.

11:42So you're seeing Berkhamstead going yellow, Hemel Hempstead going yellow, Hartzmier going yellow. Windsor. Windsor made in head. So that's the Lib Dems making huge advances. And I guess that the challenge for both conservatives and Labour is as as they fight over these red wall seats, they are at risk of losing educated, remain voting people around London who are going to be tempted towards the Lib Dems because they're certainly not hearing from Rishi Sunak what they want, they seem as a Brexit here, but they're not really hearing from Kierstame or what they want on things like single market and the customs union.

12:20No, I would argue they're not really hearing it from the Liberal Democrats either. I mean, the Liberal Democrats have not been campaigning on Brexit. Now, I actually wonder whether these results will make certainly the Lib Dems because you're right that they're targeting areas that probably were predominantly remain. And I'm not suggesting that this is all about Brexit at all, but I think the Lib Dems can afford to be much, much more aggressive against the government on Brexit. I think they can be much more like the SMP. And I actually do think I've been seeing this consistently when I see people from the Labour Party.

12:54as you know, I think it was a mistake to back the deal. I think that the Labour Party can has to start to speak to these millions of people, particularly young people, who do still feel very, very strongly, even if they don't think about going back into the European Union, though many do, but who feel strongly that they were completely lied to solder up and their futures have been stolen from them. Now, Labour has to speak to those people. I would like just a line in the manifesto That said, we accept the referendum outcome, the country wants to come together rather than remain divide and impolarise, but the reality is Brexit has implemented by the government has not done the economy or our culture or our strength in the world any good.

13:38We will have to review its workings, something like that. In a way what these local cast elections are doing is revealing a longer story that we've been exploring through the podcast over a number of months, which is that Rishi Sunak find himself between a rock and a heart place. In order to win back those more remain, more London commuter belt voters, voters in the southeast, he has to modernize. But the problem is that if he tried to do what people like myself or David Gorg would want to do with the party, he would find that the conservative party members would kick up, the right of the party would kick up.

14:17Members would hates it and he therefore finds it very, very difficult to make the transition he needs to make. He's in a tough, I mean essentially I think the problem is that if people like myself or David Gork were running the Conservative Party, we probably wouldn't last very long. But Rory, what was it, what was it Tony Blair said in our interview with him for this week's leading? The real test is leadership is when you're to stand up to your party. And I think that this is again, I think is a big opportunity for Labour. We've agreed, I think, that Labour's been very good at differentiating from Corbyn, very good at showing that the Tories have not been not done a very good job of governing, but we want to see more of the kind of, you know, the positive agenda.

14:57And for me, that is not about this little policy here, that little policy or even big policy here and there. It's about what we think this country can be in a few years' time. What is our big message about that? I think we must finish by reminding people that these local council elections are about local democracy. And one of the things that we have to go on and talk more about is the huge gap between the way that Britain does local democracy and the way that countries like France do local democracy. We still haven't managed to develop fully autonomous mayors with properly devolved budgets. I very struck every French town, people know who their mayor is, they can go up to them in the supermarket, they can challenge them, they can get a response.

15:44We are still in a situation which I felt is a meant repuloment that too often people know their members of parliament's name but don't know their names, their local counsellors. And although a lot of governments have talked about devolution and local democracy, we still have not given enough proper autonomy to these local councils so they can be fully responsible. Let's take London's a classic example. You end up a situation where the local government feels a little bit ceremonial because nobody's quite sure is this guy really responsible for the police? Is he really responsible for the way the tubes run?

16:17Is he really responsible for the way the housing's done or not? And we have to sort that out. But the other thing I think is happening here under the surface, which may eventually lead to electoral reform, realignment. I don't know where it's going to lead, but But I really genuinely think that a lot of tactical voter went on. And I think the other point we should make clear to people is that there's a, the Liberal Democrats can genuinely pat themselves on the bat for having done very, very well in this campaign. But of course, it's easier for them to target seats because there are fewer places where they are the main challenges of the Tories.

16:53And I think what's happening, I do believe that the Labour Party, while letting local parties get on to do their thing, they've not, they basically are pooling their resources pretty strategically and quite cleverly. And I think even on that, I think Labour would do a lot of good care, was very, very firm recently about no prospect of electoral reform. I think even again, another idea for a vague line in the manifesto, there is a lot of discontent with our politics and with our voting system. And we are going to have to look at the workings of our democracy because it's not functioning well. We should probably have a little word about this whole voter ID thing, it does seem to have created some problems for at most polling stations.

17:36There have been pretty consistent reports of people turning up, unable to vote and being quite angry about it. The FT had a story this morning saying that the ministers accepted that and we're going to look at reviewing it. But if ever there was a sledgehammer to crack and not that didn't even exist, I'm afraid this was it. This is bad, bad government. This was this is some we've discussed in the past, isn't it? It's about the demands for for IDs which and the ID is being easier for old people than younger voters. Okay, let's take a quick break.

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19:51This emergency podcast of the rest is politics sponsored by the new European and I'm actually in their offices because I have been busy this afternoon signing a thousand books. My new book but what can I do? How do we fix politics? And there's lots we can do. For a start, you can take out a subscription to the new European. And if you do that, you will be supporting strong independent journalism that unlike most of our newspapers, tells the truth about Europe politics, has an amazing coverage of unique European arts and culture. It's journalism you won't find in any other publication, and you certainly won't find all the hatred and polarization and division that you get fan around papers like the mail etc.

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21:12Do you think it's changed your views on what will happen in the next general election? Reinforce them, subtly altered them, made you think a little bit differently about strategy? I think it's reinforced them to the extent that I honestly do think it's there to be one big. I think there's a real sense that the Tories are going to go and Labour, we've talked about this so much, the Ming Vars or the big bold strategy, the Ming Vars is fine, it will get you so far and the chances are based on this that it means that Keir Starmer should be Prime Minister after the next election, but I think Labour's got to think bigger and bolder than that and that is about I'll tell you the thing that will happen out of this.

21:49So the Labour Party will get, and the Liberal Democrats will get an incredible boost in confidence and morale. And that is really important, particularly at the stage of the Parliament. And just to remind people, finally, on the hill that needs to be climbed, the provisional results suggest Labour on 35, Conservatives 26, Lib Dems 20, put that in context. In 97, Labour got 43 % of the vote as opposed to 35. and even in 2001, 40 % of the vote is opposed to 35. So Labour's still got some way to go, not just to get to the 97 levels, but to get to the 2001 levels. Yeah, but I think the thing that's going on, the dance that's going on between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, will happen more than it did back then.

22:33I feel that that is going to get through to the public that, you know, that may be the way, because the driving narrative, I think, will be... But by which you mean tactical voting? Yeah, absolutely. I think we're great supporters of. We are. And I think a lot of it went on. I think a lot of it went on and people will work at work that out. So yeah, and I think the other thing I'd say is I think if the Tories have got any sense whatsoever, they will understand. They cannot keep talking to the countries. They were all a bunch of idiots. I mean, for Greg Hans to go out this morning and say the message we were getting on the doorstep is people think Rishi Soonak is doing a marvellous job.

23:07I mean, it's just, you sound ridiculous when you say things like that. And I think they've got to get serious about being a serious government that makes this country work because at the moment it's not working. Okay, so just back, finally on the figures, most experts now think that Labour need a seven point lead to get a majority because distribution of vote has changed a lot since 2005. Nine points, which is yesterday's result, will get a majority. And if their vote becomes more, becomes more efficiently allocated, in other words, they get stuff in Scotland and S &P employed, that can be a healthy majority.

23:40But, and this is the problem, if the Tories make a bit of a recovery and governments often outperform local elections themselves, they're generally out of their jobs. For sure. It can still be quite tight for ladies, they're nowhere for a complacency. And I just want some more, praise my friend David Gork, who has taught me everything I know about this election. Now, Rory, where are you? I need to know where you are, because you're back in my country. I have just landed, just got off an aeroplane. and I am, I'd like to make a little shout out to angels, which is a theatrical costume shop. And why am I an theatrical costume shop?

24:17It's because having just landed from Jordan, I realised that I wanted to wear my privy counsellors uniform to the coronation. And I realised that of course I couldn't get one. And to a miracle, these very, very extraordinary families, the seventh generation of this family. So somebody called Jeremy Angel and they've done everything. This is I'm an awareness in Hendon, surrounded by all the costumes used on every film you've ever heard of from Manfall's seasons right way through to films out this year. How do you know that they're not selling you some sort of something out of the three busceteers and say this is the pretty council as uniform?

24:54Because they're incredibly serious. They've got a man with a book from 1923 looking at every detail of a privy council as uniform and making sure they've got the right gloves and the right Frogging on the front and the right On you by the way, this is the first time you've actually confirmed what I you refused to confirm in the made podcast that you have been invited to the coronation My invitation is obviously got lost you you probably been well see you've got your costume on there I've got my my Year hoodie yeah exactly So what does he say about dress code though? Do you can you wear what you want?