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Podcast Episode Notes: The Rest Is Politics - Episode 131
Episode Overview
- Title: Erdoğan fights on, 'Clause IV on steroids', and the fall of military rule
- Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
- Description: The episode focuses on the current state of politics in Turkey, Labour's reform plans under Keir Starmer, and the significance of recent events in Thailand.
Key Themes & Discussions
- Keir Starmer's Speech
- Significance: Starmer addresses concerns about the Conservative Party's identity and the future of Labour.
- Main Arguments:
- Starmer believes the Conservative Party has strayed from traditional conservatism.
- He proposes a return to core conservative values: family, international reputation, and respect for institutions.
- References "Clause IV on steroids," indicating a push for significant policy reforms akin to the historic changes made by Tony Blair in 1994.
- Critique:
- While the speech was seen as strong, it lacked specific policy proposals and concrete visions for the future.
- The language used ("service, respect, stability") was criticized for being non-actionable and unmemorable.
- Conservative Party Dynamics
- Current Climate:
- The episode discusses a series of bizarre conferences and factions within the Conservative Party.
- Notable figures at a recent National Conservatism Conference included Suella Braverman and Jacob Rees-Mogg, reflecting a shift towards more extreme right-wing ideologies.
- Future Outlook:
- There's speculation that a loss in the upcoming election could lead to a rightward lurch within the party, with figures like Braverman and Kemi Badenoch emerging as potential leaders.
- Turkey's Political Landscape
- Elections Context:
- Erdoğan is anticipated to win the runoff elections amidst criticism and vulnerabilities.
- Discussion on the implications of Erdoğan's handling of the recent earthquake crisis.
- The conversation touches on the role of the military and the Kurdish party's impact on the opposition's chances.
- Historical Perspective:
- A brief history of Turkey's political evolution, including its Cold War alliances and military influences.
- Developments in Thailand
- Recent Elections:
- The emergence of a progressive party ("Move Forward Party") contrasts sharply with the military-supported establishment.
- Rory Stewart highlights the significance of these elections and their potential for institutional reform, despite challenges in forming a government.
- Historical Context:
- A summary of Thailand's political history and economic growth juxtaposed with military governance.
- Broader Global Context
- Syria and Regional Politics:
- Discussion on Syria's reintegration into the Arab League and the implications for regional stability.
- Rory Stewart highlights the country's economic decline and the increasing influence of drug trafficking as a significant issue.
- US-Saudi Relations:
- Commentary on shifting dynamics between the US and Saudi Arabia, including the latter's growing independence from American influence.
Key Takeaways
- Labour's Future: Starmer's leadership will be scrutinized as he must now produce actionable policies following his bold rhetoric.
- Conservative Challenges: The Conservative Party faces internal strife, with potential shifts towards extremism if they lose the next election.
- Turkey's Political Future: Erdoğan's dominance appears solid, but voter sentiment may change as economic conditions evolve.
- Thailand's Progress: A significant political shift may be underway, indicating a desire for reform among younger voters.
- Regional Stability: Syria's challenges represent broader trends in Middle Eastern politics that could affect the global landscape.
Conclusion This episode of "The Rest Is Politics" serves as a deep dive into current political climates in Turkey, Thailand, and the UK, all while reflecting on historical contexts and future implications. The hosts' engaging discussions underscore the complexities of political leadership and the impact of various ideologies on national and international politics.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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1:06Welcome to another episode of The Rest Is Politics with me, Alistair Kamel. And with me, Rory Stewart. And we're sitting in a very strange bar stool on a round table looking at each other and harrogate. Through two very large microphones. Through two very large microphones. You're fortunate to be able to see you over the top. You can't see me. You can't see you very well now. And we're going to later today doing a live show in harrogate. Very exciting. This of course is a place which was the home of the Gilbertan Sullivan seasons here. You're not doing Mass Men or again? No, it's a private event.
1:39Pirates of Penthouse. No, you can do Mass Menor. We have actually had a request for tonight for me to play Happy Birthday on the backpipes. That's very good. I might do that. Now there's a lot to get through. We had a I think quite a significant speech by Keir Starmer at the weekend. We've had these frankly bizarre conferences by groups, factions associated with the Conservative Party. We'll talk about the Turkish elections. I actually found the elections in Thailand more interesting. I've seen it's the no coverage in the UK media of it. We should talk about that as well. Very good. But let's start with Keir Starmer.
2:12I don't know if he's about time to read his speech, but he actually talked about how he felt the Conservative Party is no longer Conservative. Well, I like that all that stuff. I couldn't agree more with him on that. I thought that was very strong. So the centre of his speech, he says, as you said, that they've given up on family, they've given up on their international reputation. And he said, if people call me a Conservative, I'm not going to be ashamed of being a Conservative means those kind of things. So it was a nice push at that part of the speech towards the kind of conservatism I care about.
2:41However, what do you think about the speech as a whole? I thought it. It did a lot of things that I want him to do. It set out. It was much more rounded about the kind of state of the world and the state of politics than he's been up to now. It's still, I think, deliberately short on the big ticket policy stuff. But I think this line that he used about you're going to get close for on steroids, close for the big thing that Tony Blader did in 1994, changing the Labour Party constitution. I think what he's doing there is setting up the next stages. And he's going to have to be held to that now. I think once you start to say things like that, you've got to come up with the policy idea.
3:12Well, that's the tricky thing, just tell us where was it. Who was he speaking to? What was this? So it's a conference organised by a relatively new group called Progressive Britain, who are on the Progressive side of the Labour Party. Probably do want to push more on the on the big bold radical side of things rather than the Ming vars. But I thought it was one of, I really do think it was one of his better speeches. And I quite like that boldness of saying, we're coming on, we're bringing tanks onto your lawn. And do you know the other thing I think, this thing about the Conservatives? Like, if I think about you being a Conservative, I think your Conservatism is very much rooted in history, culture, tradition, not changing things unless you need to.
3:51And they come on, they want to change the sort of, wreck the health service, change the BBC, pollute our season rivers with unimaginable quantities of human wastage. And it's not very Conservative. And I thought that was a, that was a smart place to be. But then the next bit of his kind of journey of leadership, I think, is going to be about taking three or four big areas where the big policy ideas come. And that's what we have to see. Because as you say, if you're going to talk about Closfore and Starrads, I mean, Closfore was huge, probably the biggest thing that Labour Party had done. So Closfore and Starrads, I think quite understand what that can be, that's going to be bigger than Closfore.
4:28Closfore. I mean, I think this is another problem, isn't it? For all these politicians that they have in their minds these radical moves. So the Conservatives obviously completely obsessed with Margaret Thatcher. And one of their problems is that they keep like how they can outdo Margaret Thatcher. But of course, the thing she's done can't be done twice. Prioritisation, setting off Council houses, the restructuring economy, they're going to be able to do them again. He's not going to be able to get rid of Closfore twice. What's the big reform that he's going to bring to the Labour Party of Closfore?
5:00What he's talking about the reform of public services. But Closfore was a reasoning with the party. Yes, it was, but that's what we've talked a lot about, how leadership is about telling the party things it doesn't want to hear. People go on about Closfore, I think much more because of the symbolism of that change. It didn't really. Remind us what Closfore was. What did it say? Oh God, the ownership, common ownership and means of distribution and supply current, production and distribution. It was a faintly Marxist sounding force. Yeah. And it was something which the Labour Party no longer believed.
5:30Even Dennis Skinner didn't really believe in that as an economic policy. So it was symbolic. And then the policy change followed from that. And I think with these missions, I didn't event last night with Beth Riggby from Sky, and with the How -To Academy. And so about five or six hundred people there, obviously coming out on a Tuesday night to listen to me and Beth Riggby talk about a book about politics. They're interested in politics. Somebody asked a question about the missions, the five Labour missions. And I asked for a show of hands in the audience who has heard of the five Labour missions.
6:02It was a minority. So my point on that is that they've still got to communicate the basic picture that is going to get on the ground. There is a messaging problem. I'm not sure he's quite tightened his language enough. So there were three big words that he was selling the speech. Do you remember what those words were? I mean, I can tell you what they were saying. I don't want to put you on spot, but it's service, respect and stability. But even when you said service, respect, I mean, obviously I love that stuff. Sounds very conservative. I love service, respect, stability. But it doesn't exactly trip off the tongue.
6:36Does it service, respect, stability? There's a lot of estates going on. It's kind of him though. I think this respect thing I know goes very deep with them. Sybilance, service, respect. OK, OK. That's a minor linguistic point, I suppose, the major political strategic point. This respect thing is massive for him. There are also not action words. That's another thing, maybe. There's a communications expert. If I came to you and said my three big words in a run of campaign on service, respect and stability, it's not cool to action exactly. Yes, it. But Gordon, listen, Gordon ran on stability and did very, very well, but as a chance and a rather than as the leader of the party, you would want to say stability, and this was what Gordon rounded if you are the government because George Osborne was saying in our just a plug it, our leading interview, which is which is out this week, just go to your podcast feed, search for leading.
7:26Leading George Osborne, yeah. In that, he pointed out that basically, you've got two strategies, either you're in opposition, which case you say things got to change, or you're in government in which case you have to say stability, basically you have to say Gordon, Gordon, you had a good phrase for it, they didn't you? You said lot done, lots done, lots to do, lots to lose. Very good. And by the way, my friend Eddie Rammer in Albania has just had the best local election results ever. It's 55 municipalities to six, only lots done, lots to do lots to do. Now, obviously, Kirstal was not going to be particularly listening to me, but I think I do represent a certain kind of floating voter.
8:09And when I saw that speech, I felt there was still not enough optimism, vision and hope. There was quite a lot of, I mean, you did quite a lot on how dare they bail out the bankers and make poor people pay to bail out banks. Now, as far as I know, Labour Party policy at the time was to provide state support for those banks. He's not laying out what the alternative is there. That's a grudge from 2008 -09. What, who's he playing to there? Where's the constituency for that stuff? I think that's a sort of a Labour, a sort of strong tribal Labour base that really wants to hear the Tories get in the boot, put into them.
8:56And did Tony Blair do that? Did you feel you had to do that in 95 -96? Oh, yeah. Tony didn't like doing the sort of nasty negative stuff, but he could do it. I remember when he once, when he did John Maydrow, the dispatch box, weak, weak, weak, and you could feel the blow landing with each word. I remember he came out and said, God didn't like doing that, so he ever he did it. And I guess he did it on the ERM. He would have done it on the bailing out of the European centric. Yeah, that's a lot of stuff. I think a little bit of iron has entered Keir's soul post -Soonak. I think he's been quite taken aback by how quite nasty Soonak can be, all this lefty lawyer stuff and constant misrepresentation.
9:35He did it again the other day about the police numbers and the crime figures. So I think I don't know, I feel Keir's moved into a different gear, but I still, I agree where I agree with you. I still want more in that speech that says this is what Britain's going to be like if you have 10 years of a Labour government. And we like, I think there's a lovely phrase that John McCain loved, which is that people like voting for a politician who's a happy warrior. They like the sense of the confident happy optimism. Well, that was Johnston strength. That was Johnston strength, unfortunately. But it would be nice to see a little bit of that.
10:05Now should we talk about the Tories? Yeah, you're a lot. I'm in horrifying. So I'm looking at the list. So this is this is something that you've raised with us here and called the National Conservatism Conference in London, May 15th to 17th. Led in the confirms because Swella Braverman, Douglas Murray, Jacob Riesmog, Senator J .D. Vance from the US, Leanderson, Theodore Darrymple who writes these articles and the spectator grumbling about generally grumbling about people on benefits as far as I can remember, David Frost, John Hayes, Melanie Phillips, Nigel Bigger, who's this theologian Oxford who's been doing revisionist history on the British Empire.
10:43Darren Grimes, it's a pretty astonishing group of people. Terrific. Terrific. Also, I mean, Swella Braverman, she's the home secretary in a government led by Rishisunak, who yesterday was meeting Zelensky, the leader of the Ukraine, to talk about the next stage as an incredibly important military confrontation with Russia. And his home secretary is topping the bill at an organization, an event organized essentially to tell Rishisunak that is domestic political strategies or to cock. And some of the speeches Douglas Murray who you mentioned said it was talking about the, you know, there's nothing wrong with it.
11:21She had this thing about there's nothing racist about wanting to stop immigrants coming into the country. I always have a problem with people who start their centers with there's nothing racist about it. Usually it means they're going to go into exploit racism if they can. She, Douglas Murray made this speech where he said that just because the Germans mucked up a couple of times in the nice century, we, doesn't mean we should stop feeling proud about our nationality. I mean, that is a pretty amazing historical analogy. Jacob Riesmog, who sat in the cabinet when the VOTRID registration bill was being put through, attacked Sunak for doing it and said it was Gerrymandry.
11:53And Bravaman, this law, honestly, if this was at the left wing equivalent, the right wing papers would be going insane with this stuff. Bravaman made this joke about Kierstarmher, who doesn't know the difference between a man and a woman, maybe he'll be end up being the first woman leader of the Labour Party. I mean, there just is pathetic stuff. And then Danny Kruger had a big speech on the centrality of family and how stick together when we hate each other for the kids. It's pretty hard because it feels, including the inclusion of a US Republican senator in this. And also funded by an American think tank, it's all the sort of, where's the money coming from stuff, which never gets asked of the right.
12:35But very much, this is people leaning into American cultural issues. And of course, Leanderson, very central to all of us, who's the vice chairman of the party. Well, he's a guy who deficit chairman. He said out loud, you know, the last election we had Boris Brexit in Corbyn, we've got none of those at the next. We've got to have cultural wars and trams. But this is why I was talking to a conservative cabinet minister yesterday who was saying that it seemed likely, of course, that the conservatives will lose the next election. Is that what they think now? It's not exactly, that's what they think.
13:03That's not a big revelation, 21. But what was striking is how completely confident he was that when they lose, the leading candidates will be from the right and the party will lurch the right in response to loss. And that Swelabrafferman and Kami Badenak are the leaders to take over the party. Which, you know, what if Labour do get in, even with a small majority, it could be good for Labour. I think if the Tory party lurches into some sort of post -Ferragist eukipery of cultural nonsense, I think it's very, very bad for the country. Well, I agree with that. I agree with that. I agree with that.
13:33I agree with the country. So I did that policy's live programme. And Danny Krueger was on the panel, and so is Shamy Shakrabati. And Shamy and I didn't always agree about it. Danny Krueger was a big supporter of Boris Johnson. Was one of his private sectories before he was elected. Was one of the key members of the administration. I wonder how he reconciles his very strong Christian views on marriage with being a strong supporter of Boris Johnson. But what was really fascinating was, Shamy and I at one point were looking at each other because Danny Krueger was coming out of this stuff about, he was looking at us and pointing us and saying this leftist, so I think he said some morally transformative agendas.
14:09I was like, what the hell is he talking about? And then he comes up with his speech about, you know, couples who stay together for the kids. And I just thought the whole thing felt weird. I'll tell you the other thing that really made me laugh. You know the other organisers, we've talked about the the nat cons as they call themselves. But the day before he had the other one, the the the banaman, um, Kredus, Lord Kredus, Boris Johnson, Fan Club, what's he called, organisation of democratic something rather. And somebody sent me the clips of Pretty Patel, Nadine Dorees, Andrea Jenkins and Kredus.
14:41Speaking, you know that thing they have in the corner of the screen, which tells you how many people are watching online live. The highest was 66. And you were one of them? Well, I wasn't one of them. Somebody sent me, I reckon 25 of them, Motori MPs who've now got shows on GB news where they talked about this amazing conference that they were all at. But we do give them, we're probably doing it the same now. We're giving them far too much attention. But on Praveman, what, so when Riesmock came out and said to that conference yesterday, he said, we will be toast. We'll be finished if we try and change the leader again.
15:12I wonder if actually he was trying to signal in a very misleading way to soon act that his position is safe when actually it's not safe at all. Well, and of course, one of the extraordinary things is that Tori MPs always say that and then often go on and change leaders. I mean, it's a knee -jerk reaction. They said it will be toast to forget about us Johnson will be toast to forget about this trust. I think Riesmock did something which was brave and correct, which was to get rid of this bill, which was going to rip up EU legislation. But it's a very, very risky, dangerous thing he did within his party because he got elected on a manifesto.
15:46You remember he had a video of a shredder and that has really wound up the Brexit right to feel profoundly betrayed. And at that time, at exchange, you had on News Night, you had a, was it on News Night? What's that? At that time, at that time, at that time. Anyway, with that lady on, it was News Night, right? Yeah. Yes, News Night. In that, I noticed she was also laying into Riesmock and questioning whether he was really a Brexitier and saying that he had betrayed his promises and really believed in the whole project. So he's got a very, very difficult job trying to hold that discussion together.
16:20Well, she probably talked a little bit about the news and I think, but did that not damage Badenock as well because she's the one who had to be sent to the whole thing to the comms as being been. Yeah, I think it must be difficult for her. So that helps Bravaman? Probably does, yeah, probably does, although it might make, can you bad not paradoxically, there are still probably a hundred Tory MPs who see themselves more in the centre -led party. So do you think I strayed from the disagreeing, agreeably, path of enlightenment in the Riesjurt era of my life? Well, I don't know, I occasionally do it myself.
16:50What I notice being a sinner myself is that, is it certainly Shashana watching it doesn't like seeing either of us getting shouty. She didn't, I mean, when she was watching with me, she didn't particularly blame you for it, but she thought the whole tone of the thing as a watcher. You cease to take in the arguments and you begin to fend for. I'm just very glad that Fiona was in bed and didn't see it. And when she saw I was trending on Twitter the next morning, she said, what have you done? I said, I'll just on News Night last night, it was a bit of a problem and got to be aerated, she didn't watch it.
17:22So explain, tell us a bit about it, because you didn't watch it. So I'd put out a speech as I was doing that night about Europe, which I wanted to be about my desire that labour become a bit bolder on calling out the Brexit disaster. And because the Sue Nacket announced that they were scrapping the retained EU law bill, they asked me if I would go on. I thought I was going to go on with a Jacob Riesmorgh or a Farage or something like that. Maybe I don't follow these things as close as I should, but I actually, I didn't even know who she was. I couldn't quite believe. And she was an MEP. She was a former MEP who's now an advisor to Richard Tice, the reform party.
17:59But a UKIP MEP? Yeah, yeah. Or the Brexit party. Brexit party. And before we went in there, the Israeli MP was about to go on after us with the Palestinian ambassador. I was talking to the Palestinian ambassador about Middle East peace process and such like. And she got into conversation and started to try to tell the Palestinian ambassador that people in working class areas in Britain their cost of living was rising because of Brexit, to which she looked and said, do you know anything about inflation and how the economy works on inflation? So that I just thought this isn't not going to be a reality.
18:35So it wasn't going well on the green run? It wasn't going badly, but it wasn't going great. And then in the interview, she just came out with stuff that was just utter build and factually inaccurate and he just gets sick of it after a while. What I didn't like myself for doing was turning on Victoria Darbyshire. I think I probably did that because - I think so about the BBC and fear. Yeah, who actually, I do think there's been a problem with the BBC not calling out these Brexit's. I mean, you know, the fact that Nigel Farage has been on the question time more than any other politician in history is ridiculous.
19:06They very rarely get into the war. Well, even for Nigel and News Knight last night, same Brexit as a disaster. He's now just commenting on it despite having been one of the great creators of it. So I got very aerated with Victoria, but to be honest, he's one of those things end of a long day. And do you find the process of publishing your book and the reviews and the interviews and all the stuff? Is it stressful? Because sometimes what's happening is people are kind of dredging up your past, chucking your rock war at you, chucking your time and downing straight out. Is that unpleasant for you?
19:38Do you have quite a thick skin? Do you worry about it? No, I don't. I quite enjoy. Look, there will come a point probably in a couple of weeks where I'll think, right, I've done the book and that move on to the next thing. So on the way here, I went to a school just down the road, and I really enjoyed it. Young kids really engaged in politics. All of them getting a book for the asking a question, all that sort of stuff. And it was, so that sort of stuff I enjoy. I should, I don't know if you're aware, Rory, but I did invent another new word yesterday, podultory. Podultory? Podultory. I committed podultory yesterday.
20:14Oh, yes, I was invited on that show. I was supposed to be asking a surprise question to you on that show. You went on usage. I did. Yeah. So you have to do so, as you will find out when politics on the edge is published in September, you have to do a podultory. So I did a bit of podultory. And what was interesting, you mentioned the right, they actually taught a lot about the exchanges that we had around. They were singing your praises as an interviewer. And they were saying they thought that you got more out of me on the right than anybody else ever had. That's very kind of. I don't agree with that, but very kind of thought.
20:48Listen, just a word. I don't find it that difficult. I just, I know when I'll have reached the end of the book, but it's not been too painful. I was in Paris yesterday, and I was in a square outside the Senate where for five months, Catholic protesters were protesting a change on surrogate mothers. And I was reminded how very different the culture wars are in places like France from the culture wars here. In France and the United States, so much of it is driven by religion. And whatever's happening in the National Conservatism Conference and the people are much, much more secular society. And so despite the fact you get, you know, JD Vance, who's a US senator wanting to talk about keeping the family together and all that stuff, it's got a completely different resonance in the US.
21:38Or even, I think, in Catholic countries in Europe. So the most important issue in France. So that was, I'm just reminded of it again, again, I keep forgetting that one of the things that is a continual challenge is that there is still a conservative religious Catholic element in French politics that doesn't like liberal progressive reforms brought in by Francois, your friend Francois Hollande, on things like surrogate mothers. And I was just reminded that for five months, it sat in the square outside the Senate, protesting it. And that... What about the assisted die thing? Is that not seen as a religious thing?
22:10Because Macron's moving the data on that pretty fast. I think it's a huge thing. And I think we underestimate how much in all these countries, when you and I naturally applaud progress in Ireland or France on all these issues, how there is often 40 % of the population that remains very, very uncomfortable about these things and probably very resentful of the politicians that introduce them. Right on that, I will take a break.
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25:01Welcome back to the rest of politics with me Rory Stewart and me, Alistair Campbell. And Alistair looking extremely fresh, notwithstanding the middle of his book tour. You can fresh? Yeah, I think he's feeling pretty fresh. I think I'm swimming this morning. Doing well? Are you one for another one you called swims? I did. Very good. It's not really cold in the morning. 16 degrees. Was that in London or here in Yorkshire? Where were we recording? I don't know. I might find somewhere in West York to tomorrow. Now, what's the population of Turkey? Co -Vision Turkey. Don't know. What's the population?
25:2985 .2 million. Very good. Thailand, 71 .6. Which is roughly the same as the United Kingdom. Yep. And how much have you heard on the British media about elections in Thailand? Very little. Are you going to tell us that? Well, I think they're fascinating because the party that's been running the place, which is very pro -military and pro -king and very pro -king have been absolutely battered. A party that's clearly taken a lot of lessons from Emmanuel Macron, calling itself the move forward party. You can always say, on March, progressive, youth -led, actually at the heart of their campaign, something that could be seen as a crime, because they're actually calling for reform of the monarchy, and they have the whole laisse -mages -stay thing that you're not allowed to do.
26:15It's 15 years top sentence for criticising the monarchy. Or indeed their pets. Or indeed their pets, exactly. Or anything they wear. They have campaigned on reducing the power of the military, ending conscription, euclonstitution, and they've done incredibly well. One way I saw it described is that what made them different from the party that came second, which is the traditional populist party, is as you say their focus is on institutional reform. People didn't really think they were going to get anyone. Institutional reforms not usually a sexy subject. People argued that they reformed the constitution and the election rules made it very difficult for this party to come through.
26:53And despite new types of electoral system, which is a parallel system that first passed the person, that PR, they've managed to come rumping through over 30 % of the vote. And then the parties with which the former Prime Minister Priate Chinature is associated between them. He's got two parties, one that he used to run and one in out of 76 seats between them. So they're finished. But what's terrible about this whole system is that the Prime Minister now has to be chosen by a, by 250 members of the Senate who have been appointed by the military. So if these guys have won, it's not clear how they're going to put together a coalition.
27:26But it is an absolute, we go on about populism, we'll obviously talk about Erdogan. This is a total defeat of the populists. Well, it's extraordinary. It's a defeat for the populist and it's a defeat for the crusty military conservatives who are sort of two different bits of Thailand for a new progressive movement that's very exciting and took credible numbers of seats in Bangkok, took a lot of seats in Chiang Mai, which is the second largest city, led by this charismatic, a graduate from actually the Harvard Kennedy School where I used to teach a bit. He was there when I was there. I didn't think he took my classes.
28:00This is Peter Lim Jeroi Nat. And then the other guy, one of the candidates who led the youth movement and the protests against the government in 2020, he's still in his 20s and he won one of these seats in Bangkok. And I think they won all but one of the constituents in Bangkok. So it's a pretty big story. And then you've now got this whether they'll be able to form a government on the basis that they can they're going to deliver on some of these promises of reforming the military and reforming the monarchy we'll wait and see. So a little, little posthed history of Thailand. So the Thailand was ruled for more than 70 years by the current King's father who ruled at the kind of length that Queen Elizabeth II or the Emperor Hira Hitu ruled all the way from just after the Second World War through the 2000s.
28:49Was very much caught up in US Cold War politics because you remember the dominoes theory and the whole idea was if Vietnam fell, Thailand was going to be the next to fall. So the US really invested in the 50s and 60s and China back, generally quite right wing anti -communist governments in Thailand. In 1922, it had its breakthrough into democracy, which the old King was incredibly important for. A bit like I think the King of Spain coming in after Franco. There was a very famous image where the general and the main opposition leader knelt in front of the King and the King basically told them to get on with the elections and this vision of these two people kneeling in front of him was incredibly important.
29:29And it was of course one of the real economic miracles. This is a country which in 1980 had a GDP per capture of about $1 ,500 and it's now up at $10 ,000 per capita in not even in perched sing power parity terms in absolute dollar terms. It was hit very hard by this financial crisis in 97 bounced back by about 2004 -5 and even with all these changes because there were these horrible military coups which have happened now twice in the since 2000. At a time when you felt the world was ever more democratizing, Thailand was the exception to the rule of military but still hasn't basically thrown it off the course of very very impressive economic growth slightly reduced by the military but still one of the great miracles the world.
30:17It's poverty extreme poverty rate in Thailand now something like 0 .03 percent. You do give directly what though? I'm living under $2 ,000. No, we don't because it's much too wealthy. Now given that we want to be prosecuted under the Thai laissez -mâche state rules, let me just tell people a little bit about the king of Thailand which nobody's allowed to talk about. We don't want to be prosecuted. We don't want to prosecute that. We like the fact that we can criticize our own king though very very few people do especially you. Have you ever criticized our king? No. And is that a point of principle?
30:47Well I do really admire him. I do think it's wonderful. King Vajira Longkong who's the current king, do you know where he lives? No. Munich lives in Bavaria. Try it. Why? It's why. Well it's actually a sort of family tradition. His father largely until he became king lived in Switzerland but it appears that he has a lady love and he has been spending most of his time living in Bavaria and this is one of the large objections of the Thai people that they're king. Did they all know that? Yes, everyone knows that. How did they know that if you can't criticize them? Well it's difficult to get the news out but occasionally it comes out.
31:27I mean U .S. Ambassador wrote this wonderful report about air chief Marshall Fufu, a who was the poodle belonging to the king who turned up at a diplomatic reception dressed in a full evening gear including Diamante little shoes that covered I guess his paws and was allowed to dance over the tables drinking from the U .S. Ambassador's drink. Also in WikiLinks was a famous video of Fufu's birthday hosted by the king and the queen who appeared topless for the for the birthday party. So anyway the king's reputation as a party boy who's now 70 years old. Living in Munich. Living in Munich and the relationships with Fufu and what's called his profound moments of eccentricity compared to the very very revered status of his father who for 70 years was seen as an extraordinary sort of force for for good and religious propriety in Thailand is at the heart of some of these.
32:27But do you have to do stuff in Thailand? Is he keep him to flip back to Thailand to do ceremonial stuff? No he doesn't do very much of that. No and in fact there was a tradition in the Tyrault House of not doing very much that. Quite a lot of them in the 20s and 30s were ruling from Europe. Turkey? Turkey. Everyone's going to win. Everyone's going to win because he so it's gone to a runoff. May 20th I think. May 28th but he almost got it 49 % of the votes so it's going to be very very difficult for him not to make it so. Also the guy who's taken the 5 % the third guy he's even further to the right than Erdogan so it's very hard to see that 5 % going back to the opposition.
33:03Absolutely and the opposition leader to add to his problems had support from the Kurdish party and Erdogan's whipping up the fact he had support from the Kurdish party to turn up and consider it. I mean there's a small hope that now people see Erdogan as vulnerable. They may change their minds in the election so I wouldn't completely write it off but it looks like he's going to be able to win. There's interesting we talked a bit about the I mean I think we have been consistent about saying that we think that Erdogan probably would end up winning but he actually did incredibly well in the earthquake zones where there'd been an assumption that they'd handle it so badly.
33:38So I remember we did a podcast when I was in the earthquake zones and I was actually quite struck by how much the Turkish state mobilized. He'd moved governors who were like French preface. There's sort of appointed people down and I was in a room with one of these Turkish governors running the response near Gazi Anteba and it was pretty impressive. He had all the military and the police and they lined up. They had the maps out. They were and trucks were pouring in so I can see that working in a sense that's what he made his repetition. He made his repetition. Erdogan made his repetition Istanbul in the 90s as a guy who got things done.
34:13He was and even when he was president it was all about the fact he doubled the number of roads in the country. He massively increased water supply bridges. He loves big public infrastructure. He also did a huge public sector pay deal just before the election. I mean like huge raising them in a wage, big civil service pay rises. I guess the other thing, I mean Jonathan Powell's brother, Chris who's quite involved in politics in different parts of the world and he was involved with the Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu who we've talked about before, who I think would have been a much better opposition leader.
34:51Of course they managed to get him stuck away in jail for a bit because he criticized the election authorities which are entirely appointed by Erdogan. And also it was strange watching that I watched the, I actually took a leaf out of your book and I watched the live coverage on Aldozerah which was pretty good to be honest. They are to shut up between them and the CNN. But what was, when you saw the numbers all being announced by the official Turkish news agency which is pretty much controlled by Erdogan and it was clearly designed to try to make the opposition people who were watching the vote counting just give up.
35:25And so they held in and they're still there, they're still in the fight but I find it very, very hard unless, because the turnout was so high it was almost 88 .2 % Unbelievable, not 2%. And so it's very hard to see where those people might think oh my god yeah maybe we could beat him. Given that the polls were saying that was going to happen anyway. So there's a turn up because they're unbelievable. I mean I don't think anyone gets this kind of No, it's not even more, unless you have compulsory voting. The only thing I looked into, the lot of Turks obviously living around European Union, the vote for Erdogan in the 1 .5 million Turks living in Germany, 65 .4%.
36:02So very, very struck by how much German politicians are interacting with this partly because I mean as you say you had a figure of just several million but in fact three million Germans I think were born in Turkey and seven million have Turkish ancestry. Yeah and because the Germans are being quite tight on giving them German passports a lot of them will still be Turkish citizens. It was even higher in the Netherlands, 68 % of the Netherlands, 64 % of France, 71 % of Turks living in Austria. Voting for Erdogan. And a lot of them, I read a thing in built site on where they were saying that the reason is because they really resent the way that European politicians talk about Turkey and talk about Erdogan.
36:43I was thinking about his career. I was always thinking about the similarities with Imamoglu. Both of them went to quite conservative Islamist backgrounds. Erdogan grew up as a teenager literally on the street selling water bottles, selling simit which is like a big pretzel. Then didn't probably go to university, he claims he did but there's no real record of that. Was a footballer? So you'd relate to that. And Imamoglu was also actually a semi -facial footballer. He's got a very, he's got a very kind of athletic build. He's never smiles, does he? He's very smart. But then he became, I remember from the 90s through to about 2014, was such a kind of hopeful figure.
37:27When he came in in the early 2000s, he very, very quickly did these amazing reforms. He said very progressive things about gay rights, he got rid of the death penalty, he tried to run a peace process with the Kurds. But a lot of this was about EU accession. And when that began going sour. In about 2014, and we talk about 2014 as the beginning of the age of populism in a sense because that's when Modi comes in in India, that's when ISIS take most sort. And that's the point at which things change with the other one, that's the point at which he becomes president. Since you were saying it was I didn't really thought about it because I've forgotten it.
38:02But when we've talked before about the first time with Tony that we met Putin, similar with Erdogan, he was seen as a kind of reformist, West leaning, pro -Atlantisist. And this campaign, I mean Biden has been a big part of this campaign, essentially he's been saying, vote for me to put Biden in this place. It's a almost a complete reversal of where he was. Obama's first international trip and first big speech was made in Turkey in 2009, because Turkey was seen as this fantastic example of moderate Islamists, Western friendly NATO members trying to join the European Union and a model for what Syria could be, Iraq could be, all these other countries could be, without an invasion, without an intervention as sort of positive, locally led move, and then suddenly from 2014 onwards, it all begins to go pretty horribly wrong.
38:56There's this coup, which there are so lots of questions about, was it a real coup against him, was it a coup he himself staged, he then drove this crack down, which ended up with 91 ,000 people, being arrested. A whole area of his self -service cleaned out. Then he brought to a new constitution that he got to on a 52 -48 referendum, remember that kind of stuff, which basically strengthened the power of the presidency against you to show you built a 300 million dollar presidential powers. Started flirting with the Russians, bought their air defense systems, started getting very, very aggressively involved in Somalia, in Libya, and this kind of Ottoman expansion muscle stuff.
39:36And then when full on eccentric on his economic policy in 2018, – And still there? – Yeah, where he wiped out half the value of his currency in a year, drove incredible numbers of companies to bankruptcy with an absolute, and we talk about this, it's the opposite of austerity. He was a great believer in borrow, borrow, borrow, borrow, and putting the interest rates as low as possible. – He still did with inflation, what's coming down a little bit now, it was way, way, way beyond what most countries did. I mean, you've taken this neatly into that part, another thing happening in that part of the world, you've been talking about, which is Syria, back in the Arab League.
40:13Is this another string to the bow of David Miliband talking about the age of impunity? – Well, it's extraordinary isn't it? So that is an announcement that's just come out, and it's been led by Saudi Arabia and UAE, and opposed by Jordan and Qatar. It's absolutely astonishing. I mean, heartbreaking for the Syrian opposition, because they famously gave speeches in the Arab League 10 years ago. – I've given the Syrian seat, weren't they? – Absolutely. And now find themselves absolutely out on the call. Meanwhile, the Syrian economy, we've been talking a lot about Thailand, Turkey, Syria. I just had some figures that I was looking at about how these different countries have fared since 1980.
40:55So Thailand, GDP per capita, $700 in 1980, $8 ,000 today, 11 times richer. Turkey, $2 ,000 in 1980, $10 ,000 today, five times richer. Very, very impressive stuff. South Korea, 15 times growth. But Syria, Syria has gone from a situation in which they were at $2 ,000 in 1980, reached $10 ,000 in 2007, and are now down at $1 ,200 per capita. They have basically pushed 30 % of their population to extreme poverty, 70 % now unemployed. And they've gone from being an upper -middle -income country to being one of the poorest countries in the world. – Well, 300 ,000 of them are dead in the current situation.
41:44The other thing I didn't realize was the extent to which one of the reasons why the Saudis are so keen to get this thing sorted is because they, how it been salmon as he goes towards his vision in 2030, he doesn't want these neighbours with all this trouble going on. But I hadn't realized that this drug captagon, an infetamine, is now Syria's largest export, is he fate to become a mafia state? And members of his family, Assad's family, a sanctioned because of their trade in this. – Yeah, and the drug, and the British have put out a paper saying that 80 % of the world trading captagon, so captagon is, as you say, an infetamine related to phenoliferin, which some of us get in our cold medication, but obviously this is.
42:30– You're the drugs expert on this podcast having taken opium? – No, absolutely. – What does this one do to you? This captagagon? – Well, so originally developed in the 1960s to deal with attention deficit disorder and not collapsing. And then by the early 70s, people began cutting down on its use because of its psychotic effects. And by the middle of the 80s, almost nobody was producing it anymore. And then a Bulgarian gang began shipping it through with Balkan traders into the Middle East, developed a huge market for it in places like UAE and Saudi. They then moved their production facilities to Bulgarians, the Turks, cracked down on this in the early 2000s.
43:10Production facilities started again in Syria, and according to the British, the Syrian regime, and Assad is currently making three times of volume of trade of the Mexican drug cartels, this thing called captagon. – It's incredible, but I mean, virtually everything the world knows about the Mexican drug cartels, but I don't even know about this until recently. – It's extraordinary. And the Saudis just found I think 4 .6 million pills hidden in flour. The UAE's just found pills hidden in green bean shipments, and it's all coming through from Syria. So the Jordanians, there's a new committee being set up with Saudis, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, who are looking at all of these issues, amnesty, return of refugees, drug smuggling, and how to rein in Russian and Iranian influence.
44:01That's quite a big agenda. – And it seems to me they'll achieve none of those things. I think another thing that is difficult here is it's another sign of the way in which the Saudi US relationship is breaking apart. Because the US has been very, very clear that they do not like the idea of normalizing relationships, but I'll say it. And there's a pattern now of Saudi deliberately poking the United States in the eye. Partly because they feel humiliated, partly Biden called them a prior state. Trump refused to support Saudi when there were these attacks from who's the Iranian back terrorists against oil terminals.
44:40But since we haven't been so months come in, there's been a lot of this stuff. Do you remember when the US made requests on their oil production? Because the sanctions against Ukraine Russia, they completely ignored it and basically helped the Russians with their move on oil quesas. We talked about the theatricality of Biden's visit to Northern Ireland and who greets him at the airport and how people behave. When he landed in Saudi Arabia, there was a very deliberate snub. They sent a very junior prince to meet him at the airport. Whereas when Xi Jinping arrived, there was everybody was there.
45:10Mahamud bin Salman, huge state ceremony. And this is another sign of the Saudis again and again saying, we're not going to be told what to do by the United States anymore. We want to be treated entirely as an equal partner. And actually, we care much more about getting our relationships right with Israel, Iran, Syria than worrying about what the US strategy is. Well, the Americans put out a very, very strong statement saying they didn't believe Syria married to re -admission and all sanctions were remained. On that for a complicated note, maybe we're going to bring it to an end. We'll chat again at Question Time.
45:45Excellent.
From the publisher
What next for Turkey? How does Starmer aim to reform Labour? Why should we be paying attention to events in Thailand?
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