150. Sunak’s path to victory, Trump’s stance on Ukraine, and the future of Palestine

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0:49Welcome to therestus Politics with me, Alistair Campbell. I'm with me, Rory Stewart. And where are you, Rory, that you slept in? I can tell from the fact that we're late. To the fact that you look exhausted the other way you are. Thank you. Many, many, many apologies. So first thing is I'm in San Francisco. Right. And it's just after eight in the morning. I hadn't realized that I got my entire timing wrong. So Alistair has been sitting. You may be able to hear from his incredibly patient tone of voice. Paul Mann has been sitting for 45 minutes waiting for you to come on. I think I've told you before on George Bush's many endearing qualities.

1:28Is that if anybody was late, they just didn't get in the meetings. I should have just done the whole thing myself and pretended to be you. Come out pro labor as you. It would have been absolutely brilliant. Attack to eat as you would have been great. Yeah. Absolutely. Anyway, I'm in the UK where the American President just flew over my house in helicopter. So I was able to wave at him while I was waiting for you, which is nice. It did it. It is very, very hard to tell by suspect he didn't. But I suspect he has a better view from helicopter than the people on the ground have a view of inside that helicopter.

2:01He's been to see Rishi. So you're not going to see the king. Very good. Something rather weird going on with our media, which is that there's this sort of needy desire to project the special relationship as being still very, very, very special. And I don't know whether this is number 10 pushing it. To be honest, I doubt it. They might be doing it a bit, but it seems to be sort of almost in built now and to end the media coverage of any presidential visit, no matter how brief. And this one, I think you went to number 10 for about just over half an hour. They're not off to seeking Charles. And then of course, he comes out and says we have a very solid rock solid close relationship.

2:38And I've just seen the evening standard, which is like, you know, massive picture of Sue Nagen Biden. You'd think this was some kind of historic gathering when it's just sort of a short trip on the way to the NATO summit, where the real business is going to get done. And so how should people have played it? What would be a more sensible thought for way of thinking about these kind of brief visits? Because I guess the anxiety is there was a brief visit that we talked about before, which was the much brief of visit than people hoped in Belfast where when he then went on to a very successful trip to Ireland.

3:08Yeah. How many visits has he now made to the United Kingdom in the, I guess, nearly three years as president? I don't know. On the top of my head, two or three, I guess, he came for the Queen's funeral, didn't they not for the coronation. I think he's seen Sue Nagen five times since he became Prime Minister, which is quite a few, but it's just, it's almost like they want to make it something that it's not. So when you say what would have been a more interesting way to do it, I think it's just the fact that there are some really, really serious issues to do with the NATO summit. And this was a visit on the way to that.

3:39You've got the difference of opinion over the use of cluster bombs. You've got the fact that they're on the different side in relation to this argument about Ukraine's membership. We've had the issue of whether or not Biden, Vita, Ben Wallace is the next NATO General Secretary. Now, I'm not suggesting that you make it into a sort of big difference, but at least be grown up about it and be seen to be talking about the things that really matter as opposed to it's all just, you know, for the cameras. So just to go through the issues, then, Alistair, which you've raised, cluster bombs, I guess, is the first one.

4:10So as we've discussed in the pod before, there is this almost first -world war position developing in Ukraine, the Russian lines heavily, heavily dug in and entrenched. And apparently it seems quite deep. So minefields, then big defended positions, and a real sense of kind of grinding stalemate and huge pressure on the Ukrainians to mount a counteroffensive to punch through those Russian lines in order to take back those bits of Ukraine, which the Russians have seized. And of course, Semensky keeps saying he wants to go back to the pre -2014 Ukraine, which would mean retaking Donbass, retaking Crimea.

4:47In order to do that, the Ukrainians and their American advisors think they need to use custom munitions. They need to drop these cluster bombs into the trenches. And they're arguing that this is an exceptional situation. You're not using them against civilians. You drop them into trenches and you kill the soldiers and the trenches. But cluster munitions are horrible things. They remain around for a very, very long time. I mean, famously, they're often picked up by children. And so the United Kingdom and over a hundred other countries were signatories to attack the banning cluster munitions. Now, Ukraine, Russia, the United States did not sign up to banning cluster munitions.

5:24And of course, the Russians have been using cluster bombs too. So I guess that's the first thing. What's your sense on this? What's your sense on how we balance moral outrage against the weapon system with support for Ukraine? Well, it's interesting how long it took Joe Biden to make the decision to send them. And it was obvious as well from the way that Jake Sullivan, his national security advisor, made the announcement that they are cognizant of the worries that people have about this. But I guess they're in that position where the Ukrainians are saying, I mean, this, this may be something that they know that we don't, but I mean, I imagine that what's going on is perhaps that the counteroffensive is not quite going as well as they thought it was.

6:00And partly because as you say, the Russians are so well dug in. So they want to be able to take out a whole load at one time. And you've got the breads, you've got French, you've got the Germans, you've got lots of other major countries that are totally opposed. So I think what Biden's trying to do is to say, we're going to do whatever it takes. But at the same time he's doing it in a way trying to hold together the alliance that he effectively is leading. And I think on the politics of it, it's handled it pretty well to be absolutely frank. And what would you be doing? Do you think if you were a French or British prime minister?

6:32I mean, how much do you think the public in France and Britain really care? Do people know what custom emissions are? Are they going to be horrified and angry? Is it going to turn people against the Russian Ukraine war when we're against seeing images of Russian soldiers torn apart by custom emissions? Well, I mean, I doubt whether we'll necessarily see those sorts of images. I think the thing that does, there was a lot of coverage here yesterday, what these bombs actually are. One bomb is dropped and then the skin, as it were, disappears and then all these little bomblets go out. And there's a lot of explanation as to why these so -called duds, particularly if it's soft or wet ground, they're just going to lie there.

7:06And then the next person who comes along and treads on them or as you say, a child who plays with them, then is likely to be injured. And they have been emphasizing, as you just did, that this is part of a battlefield weapons. But the fact is that I think people are concerned about it. I think that we're in a way where the argument perhaps is weakened is the fact that the Ukrainians themselves are subject to being hit by these cluster bombs because the Russians are using. So I guess I think a lot depends on whether there is this sense at some point that the counteroffensive is beginning to work.

7:41But listen, there's no doubt that that is, I thought to be fair to receive that guy, I thought the way he dealt with it, simply by saying he didn't criticize Biden directly, he simply said that we discourage the use of these cluster bombs. So he was being pretty diplomatic about it. I imagine that's what Macron's doing. And the other thing that's interesting is they go towards, so Biden's here for a few hours, underneath you can hear, but that's the helicopter's coming back, I think. But Macron is also seems to be slightly shifting his position in relation to whether the pace of Ukraine's entry in Tnato, Joe Biden, the interview is CNN where he seemed to be pretty reluctant to commit in any meaningful way at this point to take the process further forward.

8:26And Britain and the French are certainly in a far forward position, the Americans and the Germans a little bit behind. And I guess the point about that is that if you take Ukraine in Tnato, NATO becomes directly part of the conflict. I mean, obviously in many, many ways it is already, we're putting in so much support, so many weapons, and particularly the US think, over what we've discussed before, I think the US is putting in at any one time something like seven times the contribution of the second largest contributor. And more than half the total contribution is going in in terms of money and weapons, I think over a hundred billion dollars now.

9:01But there is still a fig leaf pretence that this isn't NATO at war with the Russians, and that if Ukraine join NATO, you're then in a very different situation because NATO carries with the obligation of all the other member states to get involved on the ground. Yeah, and you're into the whole article five thing. It does, you say it's a fig leaf, it does, when you're talking about the levels of weaponry that's been provided now with these cluster bombs in particular, it does seem a pretty thin fig leaf, but then again, it does seem to be holding thus far. And then I think final final thing, which is an uncomfortable thing that we've talked about, but never quite got to an answer on is, what is the, as it were, the off ramp?

9:40What's the end to this conflict between Russia and Ukraine? Because it feels like a pretty intense stalemate, we've talked in the past about it possibly being almost like Iran or Iraq war, eight years of grinding conflict between these sites. And you're getting rhetoric of a sea out of Washington that's very aggressive. We're winning, we're going to do whatever it takes, which of course is quite familiar from Iraq and Afghanistan, where also we heard we're going to do whatever it takes until we don't. Yeah. Very possible, maybe this is something we can talk about in the next part of the podcasts that if Donald Trump came in quite quickly, the US position would shift very, very quickly.

10:20Well, that's why I imagine, I imagine that Putin will be watching this summit pretty closely, and will be enjoying the fact that there are these seamy divisions that are developing over certain issues. But there's no doubt at all in my mind that he's basically, he's going to try and hang on until in his mind Trump does win, whether that happens or doesn't, is up to the American people, but there is no doubt whatsoever. And in our podcast interview on leading with Francis Fouciamo, which people can find now, that's one of the points he made was that a Trump return will be significant, not just for America, but liberal democracies right around the world.

10:55So maybe you should just give us your sense of having spent a bit of time. You've been in there for a while now, give us a sense of how you see the American political scene. Well, thank you, I said. So I think there is a real sense, of course, of an obsession with a rematch. It's very, very, very odd to be going into an election where overwhelmingly almost everybody expects that it's going to be Donald Trump against Joe Biden. And it's also very odd because it's very difficult to talk about. I mean, obviously, I like you and many, many people around the world are completely horrified about the idea of Donald Trump possibly winning.

11:33So there's huge pressure in the United States not to say anything remotely critical about Biden. I mean, it's become so sort of existential for people that there's a real sort of self -sensorship, but the truth of the matter is, and this is maybe something we need to be open about and get through. There is increasing worry, of course, about Biden's age and fragility. And people don't want to talk about it because the Republicans are exploiting it. And they're exploiting it because they're going to try to run in the next election, essentially saying that Kamala Harris is going to be the next president.

12:08Kamala Harris, the vice president, is not popular. Biden said he's going to run again with Kamala Harris as his running mate. And sadly, I mean, many people I've been speaking to have been in meetings with Joe Biden recently, they are a bit worried. He does often seem quite fragile. He's 80 and he's not, he's not a young 80. And people, I think people who are worried about this would say he's been a really, really great, very significant one -term president. He's done some fantastic things. I mean, he's got this infrastructure built through. He did much better in the midterms than people predicted.

12:42He's managed to negotiate with the Senate and Congress much better than almost any of his predecessors. Really, what's he going to be like in 18 months time? I mean, what's your sense on how one deals with just being honest about that? What's the alternative? What's the alternative? There is, he's made it absolutely clear that he's standing. Hillary Clinton, when we spoke to her on leading, she said, Joe's going to run and Joe's going to win. Now, I know the second bit, you kind of have to say that. But I don't see where the alternative comes from. Look, they're both old men. They're both the same old men who ran several years ago.

13:18But I don't see the process short of Joe Biden saying, I'm not going to run. I don't see what the process is. And I don't see who the successor is. So the people that you were talking to, what are they saying as the alternative? Well, I think that they're sort of slightly horrified. I mean, I think both Republicans and Democrats think that they do not have ideal candidates here. And they're basically facing the question you've posed. They're embarrassed by this question. They're thinking, this is completely mad. Most, or many, many people in the Democratic caucus, including Congress people and senators are a bit worried about a Biden candidacy and wish that with somebody else running.

13:55And of course, an enormous number of Republicans are horrified by the idea of Trump running. But as you say, they can't quite work out how on earth you're going to get an alternative. Something that might change that, of course, is if something happened to Biden's health between now and the election. And so that a lot is gambling on him being fit in 18 months time. And of course, being able to convince people that he's going to be fit for the next five and a half years. Yeah, exactly. And also, we shouldn't overlook the fact that Trump is not young and he's overweight. I mean, I agree with you.

14:28It's a very, very difficult choice for American people. But partly because of the polarization right across the political spectrum, you've got these people who can say no wrong about Trump. And I thought Francis Fukuyama was interesting on that when he basically said that, you know, the cowardice of these Republicans who are pretending that they support Trump. And I think we talked a little bit about the Santis. I saw a poll this morning that was done in Florida where Trump is absolutely trouncing to Santis and both of them are beating Biden. So that is kind of, you know, that is alarming. I agree.

15:02It's alarming, but I don't see how you get because the only way you can get to a place where people might start to say, you know, Joe Biden isn't going to be a credible candidate. It couldn't be, couldn't stay for another four years. That only starts to happen if people who are not Joe Biden's ruled it out. So therefore, all these other people have to start undermining him, which becomes, which simply exacerbates the problem that the, that the, the Republicans are trying to create for it. And the Republican problem is extraordinary. So all the polling and public opinion people, I've been, but polling and sorry, our focus group people that I've been talking to here in the States are discovering that although there are Republican candidates who in certain key swing places like Iowa seem to potentially have more traction than Trump.

15:49As soon as they attack Trump in an ad or speech, Trump's popularity goes up. So they've got to somehow work out how to defeat Trump without attacking him because every time they attack him, people flock to him. Let me just put the optimistic case for a second for for Biden. I think the optimistic case made by the posters is that everybody has already made up their mind on Trump and Biden. There's nobody left in the United States who doesn't have a view on Trump or Biden. So that are not very many independent swing voters left. And therefore, there's a sort of basic structural sense that if people voted for Biden against Trump last time, they're likely to vote for Biden against Trump.

16:32Next time, despite the fact that one of the focus groups that has just been done asked people who voted for Biden in 2020 and would disappoint it. That's the normal. It's a classic swing voter group. So you say, so you interview them and they say, Biden is not a strong leader. He's not able to be president till 2028. He hasn't delivered on their expectations. And then they've finished by saying, but we're all going to vote for Joe Biden. That is, that doesn't film me with some hope. Also, it's coming, I don't think it's the commodity commodity on popular. I think it's just that she's been a little bit invisible.

17:10The people actively dislike her. I think the sense in the polling is she's very unpopular. And then Republicans are calculating that if they can scare people with her potentially becoming president, that really helps them. One key question I think is going to be turnout. And particularly turnout amongst African American voters, because they really feel that although Biden has done a loss of things, he hasn't delivered on what they expected. So African American voters particularly haven't seen voting rights reform, police reform, criminal justice reform. But Biden is being helped by the fact that Republicans are running an insane culture war where they're banning Black history months, they're banning Black history books.

17:52They're playing footsie with essentially white nationalist fascists. And so the Black community is in a situation where they what they've got, of course, is their vote. And they're being forced to choose between a president who they feel hasn't delivered what he promised to them. But at the same time, are completely horrified by the tone of the Republican party. Now, I think the three things that could change this, if there is an economic slump, if there's a recession in the United States before the election. And if Biden's health slumps, if he has a shockingly bad debate performance, for example, these things could change but at the moment, structurally it feels as though Biden slightly got the edge.

18:32Well, I hope you're right. The polls don't say that right now, but then polls all swing around all over the place, I guess. I mean, I think again, to go back to Francis Fukuyama, it does say something pretty remarkable that this is looks like it's going to be the lineup for the next election. And also throw in the green guy that we talked about before, Cornell and also Kennedy, the Robert Kennedy's son, who's now, he's polling 20 % in the Democrats amongst the Democrats supporters. And it appears to be a genuine lunatic, not only being unfair to him. Well, Crackpot was the word that Fukuyama used, but certainly seems to, you know, any passing conspiracy theory seems to jump on the bandwagon, but of course, there's a part of American policies that seems to like that.

19:15And again, so I think all of that says to me that Joe Biden's only strategy can be just to keep on keeping on. Of course, keep on keeping on is what he's always done pretty well throughout his career. And just before we go to the break, I think final thing is really keep an eye on the artificial intelligence threat in this next election. Oh, Lord, yeah. The potential now for a deep fake released almost too late for anyone to do it, pretending to be a health scound of Joe Biden. And I think they did strangely in 2016, I think the US was not on top of the way in which social media was disrupting.

19:50They were more on top of it in 2020, strangely, even during the Trump administration, the FBI and others actually got better at working out how to deal with electoral interference. But AI poses a whole new threat. And also we mentioned, you know, precautions, troll farm and putins interference. I mean, we can imagine they will step that up. I actually spotted a couple of things. Just today, I saw this video of Joe Biden trying to stand up on a beach and it turned out it was completely fake. And then another one where there's this whole AI has just this whole TV debate has been generated, which is also fake.

20:26So there's going to be all sorts of stuff. And I think there it, you know, educating the public ahead of an election about that is going to be very, very, very hard when you have so many people just want to believe what they already believe. I think there'll be more swing voters than you think. I think there'll be within the middle quite a lot of people to play for. And that is where Biden has to be strong and he has to hope that Trump turns those people off. But for you and I, and others like minded, I think it's, you know, given that we find it hard to see what anybody sees in Donald Trump as an attractive proposition for president, I don't think we should underestimate that he has worked out.

21:03I mean, Foucai Armour was clear about this. I think he virtually called him a genius. You know, he said he's an amazingly talented, devilishly clever blah, blah, blah. He's going for those swing voters as well as for his base. Yes. Yes, yes, yes. And, and I think the final thing is just as a sort of to cover all probabilities. It's worth remembering that that can be candidates with invisible momentum. So Obama was 30 points behind Hillary Clinton going into that, going into the election that he won. And you can suddenly find these figures emerging. So maybe in the future, another episode we can talk about some of the other people that in the Republican field, like Tim Scott, that we maybe haven't talked about enough, who might potentially come through, but at the moment it looks like Trump.

21:46We're happy for a break. Yep, let's take a break.

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