155. Sunak slides to defeat in Selby and Somerton

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1:36Welcome to an Extra RESTlessPolitics podcast with MiRori Stewart. And MiRori's camera is coming every day this week, Rori. This is getting ridiculous. It's unbelievable. Where are you? You seem to have a lot of sporting trophies behind you. I'm in a school in Blackburn. Very good. I've just heard some of the students. Most of whom want us to go back into the European Union, I should tell you, as per every school in the country, one young man who was a supporter of the reform party. I found one. And so he was giving me a very enjoyable hard time. But yeah, they're all the school trophies. So, Alison, you're on your way to Bucksdon.

2:12I'm on my way to Bucksdon where a year ago, this weekend, you lost your wedding ring. That is exactly right. And you're going to speak at the same festival, that beautiful, beautiful hall. No, I'm just going to look for your wedding ring. I'm not going to take part in the festival at all. Just go and pump the ring. No, yeah, I am. I'm going to speak at the festival with Mr Ian Dale interviewing me. He's back from his travails and injuries. Yeah, well, that's, that's, I'm a gift in my very best. That was very, very sad. He's had a couple of, a couple of tough times. So very, very quickly to remind people what we're talking about today, we've just had these bi -election results.

2:47And this was Boris Johnson stepped down from Parliament. So his seat was up. Nigel Adams, who was one of Boris Johnson's sort of key left -hand and key allies, also stepped down. Some feel because he was angry that he'd not been put in the House of Lords. And then there was a, a final case of an MP who'd been a bit mired in scandal, who stepped down in some of certain rooms. So three conservative seats came up for election. And the results were that Labour took one, the Conservatives took one and Lib Dems took one. What's your sense of the of the results? Well, I think if, if, if, thanks to bridge, hadn't been involved in the, in the results, if you'd just been talking about Selby and Ainsley and, and, and Froome, then I think the Conservative Party would be frankly, absolutely in a state of total shock and despair.

3:35And I'll come into, onto, on to, it's bridge in the moment. So the swing in Selby, where we now have a 25 year old MP insulted by Johnny Mercer as out of the in -betweeners, which I'm not sure is the smartest thing to say. Johnny's, Johnny's going to feel great, great heroes, isn't he? No, I didn't, he's, he's definitely not one of my heroes. He's one of the futureries that I don't, you know, want to sort of knock the head off. But although I've, a couple of times in recent weeks, he's got a bit close. But I think that, I actually think it's good to have a 25 year old. And I think it would be terrible if every MP was only 25, but we definitely knew young blood in our politics.

4:08And he seems like a very, very engaging and intelligent young man. So that, that was a huge swing. I think it almost as big as our biggest swing back in the, the mid 90s. And then the West country, I think, is really interesting because that is the Lib Dems now for in a row. And that was, that was huge. That was also well into 20 % plus, which is pretty big. And I think some of the Tory West country MPs will be very, very worried. And also makes the Lib Dems feel that they can possibly target the Tories in some of the seats closer to London where they can perhaps persuade people that the tactical voting that clearly happened a lot of tactical voting in both of those seats to a lesser extent, I think, in night's bridge, but it was happening as well.

4:51So I think those two are devastating for the Tories, but obviously, we talked before about the expectations game. They were playing a pretty good expectations game. I think I said to you last week that I didn't think I was in the bag and I did say as well, it was because of the way that the U -Lez, the ultra low emissions zone policy of the London mayor was breaking through. But all in all, they're pretty bad for the Tories. So let's drill into this a little bit more. Summertime of Fruim, when I was in Parliament, was an MP called David Heath, who was a a DEFRA minister. So I guess a traditional Lib Dem seat in the way that I viewed it in 2010 from 1997 through 2015.

5:27But when the Lib Dems went into the coalition, it was one of those seats where the Lib Dems were completely eviscerated in that 2015 election, basically punished for being in the coalition, lost that seat. So them taking it back, I think, is encouraging for the Lib Dems, but it's them taking back a seat that they held traditionally. The Selby results is spectacularly good, spectacularly good for Labour. I mean, that's a real landslide victory. That was a seat that was a proper traditional conservative seat, and it was being held with the 20 ,000 majority. So that will leave a lot of conservatives very worried around the country if seats with 20 ,000 majorities being lost.

6:03But Labour will be very, very disappointed about Uxbridge. Uxbridge is a seat which has got increasingly marginal. Boris Johnson was holding it onto it by a majority of a few thousand normally when a party like the conservatives, the 20 points behind in the polls and when they're in government, you would definitely expect them to lose that kind of seat in a by -election. Small majority, unpopular government. Last MP had an exactly crowned himself in great favours. So Labour will really be asking questions about that. What's your analysis of what went wrong for Labour in Uxbridge? Well, literally while you were speaking, I got a text message telling me that the party chairman, the Labour party chairman in Uxbridge is just resigned and criticising says that it has nothing to do with the by -election and it was always planning to, but it's very, very critical of Sakeer's thumb's leadership and the party's quotes move to the right.

6:54So there's no doubt at all that this issue of Ules, ultra low emission zone really broke through. And it shows that the Tories, despite having been in government for 13 years, are still very effective as campaigners when they can sort of almost be operating like an opposition. So if you think about this, a policy that was introduced by Boris Johnson, who was the mayor of London, who then went on to become the MP of Veer Henley, become the MP in Uxbridge. So in the way, it's his policy, which Siddi Khan is taking forward for air quality reasons, but also is part of the settlement that he's done with grant shaps, who's the transport secretary.

7:34It's almost like you can say it's a co -owned policy and yet Labour didn't seem to manage to explain to people any of that. So it just became, they managed to turn it the Tories for a lot of people into almost like a referendum on Ules, which actually the new MP, the new Tories MP, will be able to do precisely nothing. Just on that issue of the ultra low emission zone, I mean, this is something we've talked about in the podcast before because it matters for much more than Uxbridge. Absolutely. This is an attempt to try to introduce a measure, which is about improving the environment, cleaning up air quality by putting taxes on cars that emit a lot of pollution.

8:10And when I was running to be mayor of London as an independent, I remember a very, very powerful figure in London politics saying to me, I can win the selection for you. All you've got to do is put on your pamphlets in outer London that Siddi Khan is planning to extend the ultra low emission zone to these outer areas of London, which in those days was calculated, I know it's still true, but when I was running, they were calculating was almost 60 pounds a week on the bill of somebody on a low income in outer London for driving their old car. And he said, I'll guarantee you, I can win you this election if you're better to do this.

8:44Now, I wasn't prepared to do that because actually I agreed with Siddi Khan's policy. I thought it was really important. In fact, that we did this. And in fact, I wanted to extend it to the Heathrow area as well. And I thought that could bring revenue into London. But my goodness, it's a reminder of how difficult it's going to be to get through environmental policy. And I mean, I do worry now that the Tories having seen the effect of their campaign there, that they'll now push back even further on some of the environmental stuff that they are committed to. And I think it's, in fact, I wrote my new European column about this this week that I don't get the sense that Sunak sees the climate as a big priority on any level really.

9:22And this will, I think also the Tories will try to find these this sort of single issue right in different constituents right around the country. And as we both know, there aren't that many constituencies that they're really going to have to fight hard in in terms of, you know, which are going to decide the outcome of the general election. So if they can do that sort of politics, and Labour's really got to think through this thing of how do you fight a government that is behaving like an opposition? Because that's what we've seen in, you know, expression is being successful for the, the Tories.

9:52I just said, by the way, on tactical voting, tactical voting, essentially, when you have an incumbent government that a lot of people want to get rid of, we saw a lot of tactical voting in the, in the two constituencies in that we've talked about. There was considerable tactical voting in Oxbridge. But if you just look at the numbers of the other parties, so the Greens got eight hundred and ninety three votes. Now Labour lost by four hundred ninety five. Now that might be real sort of, you know, strong Green Party voters might actually have not liked the fact that Labour, the candidate and the leadership tried to move away from the, the Cedric Khan position.

10:27Lawrence Fox, the kind of, I don't know what he calls himself these days, he got seven hundred and fourteen votes, Lib Dems got five hundred and twenty six, social Democrat two, four eight, independent two, eight. Pears Corbin, Jeremy Corbin's brother got a hundred and one votes, Christian Alliance 78, Raving, Looney 32, and on it goes. So it wouldn't have been that difficult for a bit more tactical voting for Labour to have won. And of course, if Labour won this by election by one, we'd always say this was an absolute disaster for the Tories. That's right. But I think those figures actually are about as good as you can hope to get a tactical voting.

10:58I mean, a lot of those people lost their deposits. So it was a very, very heavy Labour Conservative thing. There weren't many votes in proportional terms going to some more. I agree with that. I agree with that. I think to just following up on your point of what this means. So it shows the Conservatives and that this is a point David Gawkes has been making in his new states and pieces, is still capable of weaponising issues. It's also, I think, a reminder, and again, I'm stealing from David Gawkes here, that this is potentially going to be a pocketbook election, other words, an election, which is really all about how people's finances feel.

11:31People are in real pain in terms of their incomes and terms of inflation, hitting their incomes, just the whole cost of living as you. And Labour's biggest point of unrubility, as they get into the election, is if the Conservatives are able to suggest to people that they're going to put up taxes. And the U -Lets is just one example of that. And then I wonder whether that maybe isn't an argument against the two of us, an argument in favour of the Mingvars strategy. Because if it's like a consult, where it's simply a referendum on the Conservatives, Labour wins very easily. But if it becomes a fight over an issue on taxes, the Conservatives can squeak through.

12:07When you talk about being a pocketbook election, I think if you look at the macro picture on the economy, the Tories are in bad, really bad state, whether it's inflation, it's debt, it's cost of living, all the stuff that we've talked about endlessly. But as you say, what they managed to do was within the context of a cost of living crisis, make it about Labour. And on the point about the Mingvars strategy, I think there's one of the reasons why Labour perhaps didn't get a proper, really strong strategy around the U -Lets issue, was that they just hope to kind of park it. As opposed to what I think they should be saying to them is they actually have to have really strong coherent positions on every single issue.

12:51And because the Tories, as you say, they do put partly because they've got the prayers partly because they're very good at the blow, the radar campaigning on social media and fake newspapers and all that other stuff that they do, Labour I think has got to have stronger, clearer positions that they can defend. Now, Kirstauma seems to be saying today that they're going to take a look at U -Lets and see whether it can be, I don't know what. Can I just question that? Yeah, because the rumour is that Kirstauma is now trying to blame Sadiq Khan for the ultra -load of machines, rather than what I would hope he would do, which is coming behind him and defend the policy.

13:24Or get together and work out how the policy can be better explained and better articulated in the context of a general election campaign. And I think that's what wasn't done in this. It just became a sort of blame thing. And I don't think anybody ever looks good if you're sort of casting around a blame. There is a real possibility, by the way, that when you get back to the dynamics of a general election, it's not impossible. You could envision a situation where Labour don't hold Selby, but do win Uxbridge. Yeah. So, Kirstauma's quaint, there's no denying that the ultra -load machine zone was the reason we didn't win in Uxbridge.

13:57We all need to reflect on that, and the man needs to reflect on that. And that's worrying. I think we'll be worrying for people like you, like me, like Indeed Sadiq Khan, who are believing these things for environmental reasons. Absolutely. Final point, I think, is there is a hint of what the Tory strategy could be for the next election, which is whoever gets in next is going to have to put up taxes. It's going to be very difficult to pay for the teachers salaries, doctors salaries, the NHS transformation plan before you think about any of the other investments you want to make in public finances.

14:33And it'll be very tempting for the Conservatives to say Labour is proposing to do a 28 -billion green prosperity fund. How on earth are they going to pay for it? And of course, Labour can't are in a difficult place. They're saying we're going to delay it, but we're going to introduce it when we're ready for it, which still allows the Conservatives to suggest. This is a big spending, big taxing party coming in. And the danger is that the public is more likely to believe that Labour's going to raise taxes than the Conservatives, and if this election becomes about people feeling under financial pressure, that's a problem, no?

15:06Even though the Tories have got taxes at record highs across the front, and as we've said before, a spending merrily and massively in debt as well. So I just think it's about Labour being much, much more confident about owning some of that space, because the one thing that's going to happen, we know this election after election, the right -wing media will manage to frame it as though it's only Labour's tax and spending plans that have to be costed, have to be thought through, have to be worked out. But when we talk the other day about where Labour gets kind of boldness from and new ideas from, I don't know if you had time to follow any of that future of Britain, Tony Blair conference that Kia spoke at, but I do think there are areas of policy that are not really being addressed in the way that they should, that are about a different sort of future for the economy, and some of the technological solutions and so forth.

15:54And that's what we're not hearing anything about. 100 % and I think Tony Blair is completely right, and what he was largely emphasising is that artificial intelligence could lead to huge savings in the government budget, and that's something we're going to discuss, I think, a little bit more when we interview, you will know a horary, and when we also interview Mustafa Sulamayne and others. But one of the problems with that, of course, is where are those savings coming from? Those savings are coming because artificial intelligence will be able to replace people with AI. And the question is, is Labour going to be brave enough to embrace the policy, which is going to involve laying off a lot of public sector workers?

16:30Within the context of a general election debate, Labour needs to get to position where the Tories and their cheerleaders, just banging on about all -fashioned campaigning, tax and spend, where they're going to do this, you know, double whammy is exploding bombs and all the stuff that they do. Labour has to get a sense of the future and ownership of a different sort of future. And I think that is rooted in these issues of we can modernise public services, modernise the way the economy runs. And I mean, they have to do all the other stuff as well, but having, this is why I say that the Ming Vars, the Ming Vars holding on to things is fine, and I get why they want to do that.

17:08But this sense of debate about who owns the future and what that future looks like, that's the bit that I feel is missing from our politics at the moment. Very good. I agree very, very strongly. So I think a by -election result that probably doesn't change our joint view, which is that Labour's still well on track to win the election, doesn't feel like it changes that. But a slight reminder in our experience that there is an issue about how Labour deals with environmental policy, how they deal with accusations that they're the party of increasing taxes. And I love the point that Tony Blair made and that you're now endorsing, which is that AI is going to change everything and will begin to be changing things very fast by the time we're going into the next election and Labour.

17:45If it's to have a hope, needs to own that agenda. Am I goodness? I think the Conservatives will be trying to own that agenda too. Well, it's very much where Rishi Surnak is most comfortable, isn't it? The whole sort of tech thing and Silicon Valley and all that stuff. One final point, by the way, which I think may be worth bearing in mind, which I haven't seen much debate about, there is within that kind of outering in London and places like Oxbridge and we've seen it. We saw elsewhere in the local elections as well, fairly large Indian community that I think historically would have been seen first -generation immigration in particular, historically very, very pro -Labor.

18:20And I think that has shifted significantly and probably shifted even more with the advent of an Indian heritage Prime Minister. This is purely anecdotal, but I was in a taxi recently with an Indian, British Indian taxi driver who was saying to me, you've got a bit of a problem with the Indian community at the moment. I was always like that then and he said, well, they don't like all this attacking Surnak over how wealthy it is because we're very, very aspirational. I thought I was an interesting insight. It's a fascinating thing because it was the thing that during my whole time in politics, the Conservatives were trying to crack because many of our members of parliament from those areas of London would say, look, our Indian community should be natural conservative voters.

18:59They're often people who seem to embrace conservative values, but they're still voting Labour. And the question was, how were you going to tap into people who were often running small and medium -sized enterprises who were very focused on low taxes, on hard work and entrepreneurial activities? How would you bring them over? And if the Conservatives actually are managing to do that, that will make a significant difference in particularly areas in Northwest London. Yeah, absolutely. I see that I was just flicking through some of the media earlier and there was a report from Betty's Cafe in in Uxbridge and the final line said that the one thing that everybody was agreed on was that they couldn't, they were glad that the area would now go out of the limelight having had weeks of visits from politicians and journalists and too many leaflets through the door.

19:41But I do, I do think the point you made right at the start though. If you think about there are so many issues you can look back on where the short -term political interest was very much in not doing something. You can think about seatbelts or smoking in public places and things that were very, very difficult at times. But quite hard to sell or some of the tax rises that had to be done at various points. But ultimately, I think that what Sadiq Khan is doing is the right thing. But politically, Labour have to find a way of doing it in a way that doesn't allow it to be weaponised to use your word and doesn't allow the Tories to exploit it in the way that they've done in this pilot.

20:20If I could just finish with a small tribute to John Randall who was the MP and Oxbridge before Boris Johnson, who was Deputy Chief Whip when I was on the party, a really lovely man who was from the centre, I sort of, that sound like I'm giving you a bit of a story, still alive, but lovely man from the centre, right to the Conservative Party, very interested in the environment, became Tories Mesa, the Environment Advisor. But he was a real Oxbridge man born and bred. His family's department store Randall's of Oxbridge was there for 127 years in the middle of High Street. And he was a man who handed over this great majority to Boris Johnson and then then saw it almost lost.

20:55But just a small reminder of a great MP who was there for many, many years. Can I make one final point, Richard? We haven't in all this, even the tactical voting thing. We haven't mentioned the Greens. But the Greens actually, it would seem, didn't indulge in quite the same way and tactical voting as Labour and the Lib Dems did for each other. And that's worth watching as well. They actually, they got 10 % in Summerton, which was the highest biolition vote ever. Now, this was a wipeout, this was not close at all. But you can imagine Lib Dem Tories and Labour Tories marginals were 10 % could actually be the difference between winning and losing.

21:31So I think although tactical voting is definitely happening in a way that perhaps it hasn't in the past, I think the Greens feel that neither of the main parties are really pushing the environmental agenda in the way that they want and they're going to stick to the Greens. Maybe that's why the Labour Chairman in Oxbridge has resigned, criticising Kirsten Mavik to right wing, maybe that he's aware that he could have got more of those green voters over if he hadn't felt that he had that problem. And I think the second issue is that it's difficult for the Greens to tactically vote because with the Lib Dems and Labour, it's obvious that they're going to be given seats and return for that tactical voting.

22:07The Greens are a very small party and it's difficult to see what they get in return for helping the other parties in. Jolly good, well I don't know whether we've added anything to the billions of words that are doing their rounds, but out of a few people will find it interesting what we say Rory. Let's hope so and support us on Monday amazing. Support us on Monday, yeah. British scientist Nobel Prize winner on leading. Let's have an agreement now though that we're not going to do five podcasts next week. You know I was meant to be on a silent retreat this week. I was meant to be really, really inaccessible and out of out of contact but somehow we've put five in a week.

22:38It's not much for silent retreat. And Rory I don't want to intrude into your private life in any way but I'm looking behind you and looks to me like a pretty standard hotel room but it's got single beds. What's going on there? That's because it's me and my two sons. Wow, I've got a spare bed as well. In the corner of the room so it's I'm not going to get much sleep as my sons snore their way through the night. Lovely, we'll have a lovely time. Thank you very much.