160. White House or jail? The future of Donald J. Trump

27:02I think it was a mistake, actually, for the prosecutors to begin by going after Trump on the payments to Stormy Daniels and the classified documents because people don't really care, fundamentally, that he paid Hashemani to a woman and they don't care in the same way about classified documents, partly because it's muddled by the fact that Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and others have had classified documents breaches. What does matter, of course, in the indictment about trying to completely subvert the US Constitution and steal election essential to his whole life? The same, I think, is probably true with what happens with, for example, Ang Tsung Suqi, the Dorsu, the Nobel Peace Prize winning leader in Myanmar, who was prosecuted for possession of two walkie talkies.

27:47So, the question I think with Imran Khan is, are people going to feel, listen, he got gifts from his foreign visits and he bought them from the state and then he sold them again as a profit? Is that something that people will feel is as fundamental as seeing an election or are they going to feel that these are the sort of things that many politicians do, but it just suits their opponents to throw them in jail for them? I think you're muddling a few judgments there because I think what you're doing there is, is essentially sort of judging this as though this were, if you're like a British justice situation.

28:21If it is true that the system is being used simply to get him off the electoral battlefield, then it kind of doesn't matter. Now, I'm not saying that's right or wrong, but it's in fact is wrong. And likewise, when you talk about people in America, they care more about this one than they do about stormy Daniels and others, that legans into the idea that there's some sort of central justice master plan against Donald Trump, whereas in fact all you've got is a series of different cases going against it. The fundamental question for Imran Khan and Pakistan is, have the Pakistani authorities in a particular military simply decided to use whatever power they have, whether that power bill legitimate or not, to get Imran Khan into a court and then to get him into jail so that he can't fight the election because it's another thing.

29:09In America, you could be a candidate jail in Pakistan, you can't. Yeah, yeah, and that's the same true and Turkey. The final thing just made before we go to the break is also a reminder of the Nicholas Church and story. I think one has to be very thoughtful about how unproached his politicians and police Scotland has got to be pretty nervous at the moment because if they cannot find good evidence that Nicholas Church and husband have actually committed criminal offenses, going after them in the way they did, taking them in for questioning, setting up tents in their backyard and digging almost as though they were trying to dig up bodies in the back garden is very, very explosive stuff and has a huge political impact on not just their personal lives but on the future politics of Scotland.

29:55And so it's a reminder that in a more muted sense, even in Britain, these questions of how prosecutions, police, judges, work with politicians, are incredibly important. Well, especially if I may say, when every day I ask myself why we've never seen anything remotely like media coverage of police activity in relation to some of the corruption that seems to have been during the COVID period, I'll just leave it at that. Should we take a break? Let's take a break.

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32:10Welcome back to the rest of the holidays with me, Anastak Campbell. And me, Rory Stewart. And just a quick plug for Anthony Joshua. So tell us a little bit about Anthony Joshua, and let's see why you were keen to get him on leading. Because he's a very, very well -known boxer, he's a big figure within the sport, but I also think he's kind of broadening out into something bigger than that. And it's interesting, the sort of reaction that we had, lots of people listening to it for sure. But for example, our favorite never misses an episode, Prime Minister Eddie Raman Albania sent me a message saying that was one of the best yet.

32:48And Peter Kyle, who we both like, he said, just finished listening to the Joshua episode, definitely the best for me, because it was so unexpectedly brilliant. Wise way beyond his years, and my that optimism would love a bit of what he has in our politics. So there you go. I think Peter also made the point that he actually liked his directness in terms of saying there's nothing wrong with making a lot of money, but it's what you do with it, the counts. And you know, the point we talked about saying that yes, I would find Russia, but I'd do it for these reasons. And so I thought he came over really, really well.

33:22And I probably is going to get a replacement fight. So I'm hearing. And what happened with that fight? So just because we were doing it in the lead up to a fight, right? And then suddenly the fight got called off going to happen at the O2 arena. What happened there? Did he and White his opponent had an adverse drug test finding? Oh, okay. So he wasn't able to fight. So they're not fighting, but it looks like they're going to find somebody else to sort of just, you know, so that the people who paid their money to be there on the night can see a fight. And we can reveal it's neither you nor I. Well, we can reveal it's not you, Rory, because you're definitely not heavyweight.

33:59I think I'm sort of, I'm not far off 15 stone, which is I think that's just about just about qualified. I must say he does look in pretty good shape, though. I think you'd have to put a bit of training in. I would. I would. The only time I got near to having a good fight was the weekend that COVID, the I think it was the first lockdown. And the last thing I did before the first sort of, you know, when it all went a bit haywire was sport relief and Manchester. And one of the big ticket events was meant to be a fight between me in the ring, between me and Pears Morgan. And I said yes, and I had Frank Warren.

34:37Yeah. And lined me up with some really good coaches, some trainers. And I was totally up for it. And of course, when when Pears was, you know, on television talking about it, he was totally up for it. But then he decided as the day got nearer, he said decided it was not the right thing for two. So yeah, I think he put it to flabby middle aged men. I said, speak for yourself. Well, we've the big fight, of course, that everyone's very excited about the moment is the fight between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, which is going to happen in Vegas. But to my fury, they are not putting the proceeds to the fight into give directly the incredible charity, which gives money directly to the extreme poor.

35:19Instead, they're putting it into a veteran's charity in the United States. I don't need to complain about that. Well, it's actually a fascinating fight. So I think Elon Musk may have bitten off more than he can chew because it seems as I hadn't realized, but Mark Zuckerberg is a sort of extreme kind of Iron Man athlete who keeps breaking amateur records. So I think it's, I think Musk maybe, maybe in trouble. Who would you want to win that fight? I mean, it's like, you know, it's harder, isn't it? You'd like to see them both go down, wouldn't you, really? But I think on balance, Musk to lose, I think.

35:53Well, should we talk about something more serious? Yeah, let's do it. Okay, so really big issue. And we began talking about this because the loss of the labors faded to win the Uxbridge by election, which was Boris Johnson's old seat, and the fact that they lost it largely because of environmental policy and the fact that a lot of voters in Uxbridge seemed to be very reluctant to pay the extra money for their polluting vehicles that were required by the ultra -lermission. So it made us get more into the question of, is this a crisis for environmental policy worldwide? And there's been an article in OnHerd saying, you know, it's just the day that Net Zero died, pointing out that we seem to have a sort of critical mass of different things coming together.

36:40Some of them to do with costs of certain types of renewable energy. Some of it to do was simply the direction the world's going in, that the world's burning more oil, 102 .5 million barrels a day that largest amount is ever burnt, being burnt this week, cold as reaching record levels, and the polling in the UK, which I think you've been looking at, what's your sense of where the polling is on this stuff? Well, it's mixed, is the truth. There was a very good piece on the the conversation by, I think they were from Lancaster University, it was a team of people who work in, they track public opinion on these issues.

37:19And it is always sort of really strange kind of paradox going on. The good news, I think, coming from a sort of, let's try and save the planet perspective, is a far greater awareness that there has to be change. We have to change the way that our economy is work, or we have to do it pretty quickly. And the numbers on that are very, very, very high. The general understanding that the climate crisis is real and that we have to make change. Where it gets then quite shaky is when you then start putting forward specifics that require people to make changes. So for example, 68 % of people support the general idea of charging frequent flyers, I guess you and I might be in that, more for every additional flight that you take.

38:09So you take your first flight, normal price, second flight, a bit more, third flight, bit more, etc. But when you then have a system and you explain to people, so that would mean this and then this and then this and you spell out the financial costs, support then falls to 32%. And the opposition rises from 16 % to 33%. So that's a classic example of where something in theory is fine and practice is not. And there was a very big, big survey done by the German government. So this wasn't the sort of polling organisation just doing it for the newspapers and the German government did a very big survey recently.

38:45And it found that 91 % believe that there has to be significant change. But then again, when you start to spell out some of what those changes are, the figures go down quite substantially. But what this Lancaster University study showed is that this is why we talked about this last week. Leadership is so important here. And I'm afraid to say that I think what Rishi Srinaka has been doing recently is unbelievably irresponsible. And it's almost like willful, you know, the thing about I love the motorist. I'm basically sort of Jeremy Clarkson without the weight. And I'm going to go and pose in Maggie Thachous -Carr.

39:24I'm going to fly up to Scotland. And it's interesting. People, if you have a Prime Minister, and it's the same for celebrities, you know, celebrities like Bill Gates, Leonardo Caprio, people who put themselves at the forefront, but then get photographed getting off private jets. People think, well, it's just all talking that I don't have to do anything. And once the leadership stops, people start to give themselves excuses for not making the changes that we all know we need to make. So what do things I've been thinking about? Well, come out, come out for one second, but I think it's a bigger issue around how the world comes together around joint things.

39:58So climate change is probably the most obvious and urgent legislation around AI. But also the fight against global poverty is something that I really feel some of the energies gone out of that 80s and 90s we were making poverty history doing live eight concerts. That's not. And one of the elements is I'm afraid that we've lost the ability to mobilize people in the same way. And part of that is the celebrities. Celebrities are actually increasingly reluctant. Do you remember in the past, obviously, Bono Bob Geldoff, were leading the poverty drive. Celebrities are increasingly reluctant to get involved in courses because they're accused very, very quickly of hypocrisy.

40:38Accused to getting on private jets. They're accused of tax dodging. And that means that many, many leading celebrities now just don't want to be associated with political courses at all. So they think just get some trouble. That's why you need political leadership. Absolutely. But you do also need people to commit. I mean, I think you need the popular political leadership. But the less than I think of a lot of the progress that was made on everything from civil rights through to work on social justice and poverty. And as you also need civil society at the same time, and there's also been a dropping away of international solidarity.

41:09So it's something Jamie Drummond, who's a very, very interesting guy who led a loss of the one campaign staff on poverty's pointed out that a loss of that stuff was driven by international churches working together. World federation churches. That's much less powerful. Those movements, they were in the 80s or 90s. Trade union movements are much less powerful than they were in the 70s. So those would have been natural drivers for international solidarity and cooperation and messaging on that. So I think that there's a dangerous sense in which we are becoming more isolationist, less connected internationally.

41:43And that doesn't help the sort of public bit of the drive on climate change. Yeah, I think I mean, campaigning is a really interesting area to discuss in this. So for example, we've talked before about just stop oil. We're pretty radical in the approach that they take and they disrupt people's lives. And that's the purpose of the protest. It's to draw attention to the issues through a strategy of disruption. And that's got a very, very strong history down the years. But I wonder whether part of the political impulse that is driving Rishi Sunat down this very strange route that he's taking at the moment is as a reaction to that.

42:22I'm not sure if I agree with you about the celebrity thing, although I guess the person who popped into my head when you said that was Greta Tungberg. And of course, she's not a celebrity in the way that Leon Ardodicapio is. She's become a global figure by being such a resolute committed campaigner. And I actually do think she's she's moved the dial considerably. But I think the other thing, Rory, is that too many people now think that campaigning is about going on social media. So actually it's easy to get petitions going. It's easy to get people angry about stuff. But actually to get people motivated to obey the first three letters in the word activism, which is ACT, DO stuff, I think we're becoming much more complacent.

43:07Yeah, this is an amazing book by Martin Goury called Revolt of the public. And he is an XCIA analyst and he says that one of the problems with social media is it creates these very rapid coalitions of dissent, but they're very unstable and very difficult to sustain and very difficult to translate as you say into your ACT. Should we just quick recap on where we are in the UK? So the UK has a net zero commitment. It's something I was quite proud because I was in the cabinet, Theresa May's cabinet when we passed this into law. So in June 2019, we passed the law saying that the UK would go net zero by 2050.

43:44That means a hundred percent reduction on the 1990 levels, but it means also by 2050, the UK will be omitting the same amount or less carbon than it's actually taking out of the atmosphere. So net zero means that the UK will be a net in terms of its own domestic production of carbon producing less than it's removing. And for that reason, at the time, the UK, to use that phrase that the Richard Johnson used the whole time, was seen as quotes leading the world and got a lot of credit for that. I just wonder looking back whether, in part, because Theresa May and the government, you were part of what utterly consumed with the attempt to make sense of what was happening in the Brexit debate, whether part of the motivation for that was a political one to signal that there's this real change on something important coming down the track that perhaps the really hard work, working out what that meant in practice was not necessarily done as unfair.

44:45Well, I think the Treasury put a lot of work into it and the Treasury was absolutely opposed to that. So I think you'll remember that Philip Hammond's signal that he wasn't comfortable at all with this commitment. The Treasury produced an estimate that this was going to cost the UK economy many, many trillions and that we shouldn't shouldn't do it. But actually, I think it's a big, steep demand, but the Committee on Climate Change has done a lot of work on this. And they've been very critical of the way, haven't they? Yeah, if you, they've done a great piece of it. Again, people want to be a little bit geeky.

45:19It's not a hard read. It's a really easy read beautifully written series reports in their sixth carbon budget where they lay out what the UK would have to do to meet this and what the costs were. And I think it's surprisingly reassuring. I think one of the thing that's driving the public anxiety and driving the politics of this and the opportunistic way in which politicians, including it seems that the moment where she's seen out being tempted to signal this stuff is because the public is being given the impression that they will be asked to basically return to the Stone Age in order to achieve these targets.

45:52And what the Committee on Climate Change points out very carefully is that is absolutely not the case that if you signal quite clearly the kind of transitions you want to make, the private sector would be able to fund a lot of those transitions over time. And you would end up in a situation where by 2030, 30, 2050, the impact on UK GDP is going to be perhaps 1 % of GDP cost, not the sort of doomsday scenario that people are talking about. Well, I've been in advance of us, we've got coming up on leading in a few weeks, Mustafa Selliman, big in the AI world, and I've been reading his book in advance of that.

46:31And of course, he makes the point that a lot of these things that come on the cost of them goes down the more that they get used. We've seen that in all sorts of ways in recent technological revolution. But if you look for example, let's just take one thing, and I think I'm reading this from one of the reports that you were talking about. This is the organization that's headed by John Gunmer, is that right? Correct, exactly. This is the official body that is essentially marking the government's homework. Correct. And as recently, I've seen John Gunmer recently becoming more and more exasperated and sounding very, very angry at the dredged of travel.

47:05But if you target a one million a year by 2030, that would mean a rise from 2021, two years ago, which was just 54 ,000. So that's a very, very big stretch. It seems to me. And if the direction of travel, as signal recently by Sunat with his, I love the car, have another hundred oil and gas licenses, all these terrible kind of woke people trying to stop you burning coal and gas and all rest of it, then I don't see how we reach that kind of thing because if you don't have government leadership and explanation, the other thing the public complained about the whole time, they agree with the overall approach, but everything feels very last minute.

47:53And I don't think this is they think they're going back to the Stone Age. I think it's that they think that this is going to cost them a lot. And at the moment, people feel they just can't afford the sort of changes they imagine, aren't you? So I think the two ways, I mean, I think the changes are dramatic, but they are doable. And that's the difficult bit of communication. So you're quite right. It's got to be a huge expansion in heat pumps. The Committee on Climate Change's budget to make 2050 also involves an overall reduction from today and the number of miles traveled by cars of any sort.

48:25And would also involve a reduction in meat consumption and high carbon dairy consumption. So those are big things, but I'm going to take it even further to get there by early 2030, all cars, vans and boilers need to be low carbon, basically means electric, early 2030s. So that's within sort of seven, eight years, that's a big change. By 2040, all trucks and by 2040, all electricity needs to be done by renewable, hydrogen or carbon capture. So that's within sort of 15 years. Well, if you think of the kind of national political spasm that the country seems to have gone into on the back of a few hundred people in Oxbridge, telling a few pollsters and TV reporters that they don't write the Zoolers extension, I don't see how we get to that with the political climate as it is.

49:15I was very glad to see that we both criticized Gears Tharm of the reaction to the Oxbridge defeat, but I was glad to see and I think it was in the times yesterday really taking Sunak on over this sort of apparent gear change in the government's approach because if political leaders don't take this on, I don't honestly see how we get anywhere near meeting these targets. Yeah, partly because the achievements of the UK has made a lot of progress since 1990. Absolutely, but that was largely done on removing coal from our systems and moving to gas, which GCC lessened and doing quite a lot of investment in renewables, but the next stage is going to be much, much tougher.

49:54Currently, we do about 14, 13 .9 gigawatts of offshore wind. We're going to have to get up to 40 gigawatts by 2013, 100 gigawatts by 2050. So that's a huge expansion in this stuff. But the good news is that as you've just pointed out with Mustafa Suleiman's book, and I'm looking forward very much set in few, is that the cost of these technologies is getting lower. And so the Committee on Climate Change is pointing out that it's going to be cheaper to achieve the targets than people projected back in 2019 when we did that vote. The Treasury estimate now will be more reasonable. The key thing though is that you need to get on with it now, and the public needs to be confident of the direction of travel.

50:39That's where your political leadership is absolutely right. Take one example, retrofitting a house, getting moving to an electric boiler, putting the insulation in, probably cost a household 10 ,000 pounds over the 30 -year period that you need to do it over. And you can get that money back on the savings on your fuel costs. So if you get the predictability right, the proper financing packages, and people know what the progress is, it's not going to cost people money, and it can be done. But you need to start doing it now, and people need to believe that the government's going to hold to these commitments.

51:18Let's take another obvious example. If everybody believes that by early 2030, all cars, vans, and boilers have to be low carbon stroke electric. People buying cars in the next two, three years are going to buy electric vehicles, right? They're not going to buy decent petrippers that get rid of them. But if there is the slightest hint from either political party that these timelines are movable, then we're going to miss these targets by a country mile. Well, Rory, you've been quite flattering about Rishi Sunak in recent months. What have you made of the recent postures? I sent you an absolutely scourierting piece that Charles Corrin wrote in the Times.

52:02And I also listened to our friends at the New European, their podcast, The Two Mattes, Matthew Dancona, who I really like as I commentate. Hold on a second. You're promoting a rife or podcast. No, but I think why I thought what was interesting about what they said was that they just think The Two Mattes were essentially saying that he's becoming a bit of a joke figure. I mean, pulling a pint and talking about his love for the Great British Booser, when we know that he's a tea totler and probably doesn't really like going in pubs, driving Maggie's car. It's a bit like me talking about my great love of football.

52:36Yeah, it's similar to him, him saying, but at least what you do, we know it's a joke. He's being serious. You know, he didn't have a thing about he can't wait to go to Disneyland. I mean, really? Can he not really wait to go to Disneyland? I think that seems very unauthentic. And remember, when a Hague fems, he got in trouble for claiming to be a great Booser. And I think we basically, people consents with Rishi Sunak, as I guess they sense with William Hague and probably with me, that we're slightly geeky figures who are not particularly beer drinking sport loving, petrol loving people. So remaining authentic is completely central.

53:14Well, I think one thing we should probably put in the show show now is even though I don't like anything that encourages the Boos culture in Britain. But my Rory, my son, who was shown with his clip yesterday, have somebody posted it after soon I was doing his my love for the British Booser and pulling Pints as I'm beer festival. It's a clip of John Prescott back in the 1990s, doubting a pint of beer. I probably see it's about one and a half seconds. I mean, it really, really does look like he knows how to drink a pint of beer. And as you say, that is authentic. That is true, along with his, along with his left jab.

53:49The um exactly. Well, we all know that you're an absolute boxing fan to the death now, Rory. We know that. Well, I think you notice I didn't say right hook there. I said left jab. I got it right, which I'm pressing. And by the way, just on the authenticity of these, this is the point when we interview Anthony Joshua or when you and I talk about football, the point is you don't pretend. So when you were talking about and to Joshua, you preface version every question with I'm not an expert. I don't know about this. And I think people respect that much more than people who come along and like David Cameron, for example, forgetting which football team he allegedly supported.

54:27I think we're coming to the end, but just to wrap up, I mean, the reason, of course, that politicians like Rishi Suneck attempted to do this is their desperate to try to win elections. And this is going to be repeated in many countries, southern Britain. And when you get down into that polling, you discover that, although 70 % of this is a you -gov poll, a strongly in favor of meeting the 2050 commitments, only 42 % support ban on new petrol and diesel. And 55 % of people say they only support the transition if there are no costs for ordinary people. And if you break it down into Tory voters, the numbers are even more worrying.

55:10So only 25 % of Tory voters support the ban on new petrol and diesel in the 2030s, whereas 58 % of Labour voters do. So it's going to take real courage and leadership from Rishi Suneck not to feel that he's found a sort of chink of opportunity electrically around this issue, put the bigger issue forward. And I think, you know, I don't want to be too defeated, but I'd also say he's not very likely to win the next election anyway. So he might as well be as honorable as he could. I mean, remember, when Theresa May brought in that legislation in June 2019, Theresa May, I and others didn't exactly feel that we had a great future in politics.

55:46And actually, that was a great moment for doing quite brave things. It was also in a moment where David Gork and I were able to bring through a white paper on trying to get rid of short sentences and prisons. The thing that really worries me, if you think about, I said this last week, and I'm going to keep saying it, if you think about the people who led the campaign on Brexit, when deep down, I think quite a lot of them knew that this was ultimately not going to do as the good that they claimed at the time. And those same people now are the ones leading the campaign against NetZero. That really, really worries me because what it says to me is that they think they found the new Brexit.

56:25We found the big wedges you. And this is how we're going to sort of, you know, really get the culture wars going is by saying, you know, the elite want to sort of do all these things we need to do to save the planet, but they're doing a urethspend so just ignore them. I think that's really dangerous. I think it is very dangerous. And I think it's very dangerous, not just for Britain, because in the end, Britain is a pretty small part of global emissions. It's the way in which this plays into things like US politics. Yeah. And in fact, even in Canadian politics, whether this issue is very, very live with voters in our better.

56:53Breaking news, Rory, while we've been talking, I was right that they were going to find a new opponent. And I was right that he was from Finland. It's good to have contacts. His name is Robert Telenius. It's your guy that I, you had heard of. I mean, be honest, and the Palace of Truth. Yes, I'd heard of him. I wouldn't be able to tell you what his fighting record is. I wouldn't be able to tell you whether he's any good or not. But I was aware of his existence. Yes, but his listen, he's not dilly and white and he's not young to wilder. But at least it'll give people something to go and see on Saturday night after they've listened to Anthony Joshua on leading.

57:28Very good. Thank you very much.