170. Prison escape, a test for Australian democracy, and spooks in Westminster?

25:32So, the, the perhaps isn't enough understanding of how this stuff works for people genuinely to make a judgment. But I'm assuming for the, for him to be arrested, that there has been at least an assessment of this, you know, the possibility of damage done. And, and I think what's also driving a lot of this story is the politics, partly within the Conservative Party, where people like Ian Duncan Smith, who's on the right of the party, has been pushing for a much harder line attitude towards China. And a lot of the opposition is so, has a Liz Truss, and part of the ways in which they're trying to kick Rishi Sunak, who they don't like.

26:12So, this is part of the rebellion of the kind of more pro Boris, pro, pro Boris Johnson, pro Liz Truss faction of the party is to push for a much more aggressive policy towards China. This is the end Duncan Smith, who of course was very wise on Brexit. Now, very, very wise on net zero. And can I make a point about Ian Duncan Smith, or how on earth can he get away with saying that he's happy about these U -Less cameras being smashed, side point. And side point on Liz Truss, are you very, very excited about her book? It's absolutely staggering, isn't it? She's writing a book about the threats of the next decade, 10 years to save the world.

26:4810 years to save the world, yeah. And I didn't think that's going to be much about, I imagine not much about net zero. It's probably going to be largely about banging China. But we'll see. Maybe I'm, I'm going to take a very unpopular view on this. Look, I agree our official secrets act is out of date, needs to be updated. I agree that China poses a very significant threat to us. They've got an enormous intelligence agency. And a lot of what they're doing isn't actually SVNR. They're huge influence through funding universities, investing in companies. A lot of it is pure economic heft and weight that they have.

27:24And that was true for Russia too. On the other hand, I don't think we should be too pious about this and too surprised. It's the job of intelligence agencies around the world to recruit agents in things like parliaments and in governments to find out information. And it's not something where you suddenly express total moral outrage and panic because of course, we would be trying to do the same thing in the other direction. Yeah. And of course, it's also, it's in a way it's easier for them. It's easier for China. It's easier for Russia because they're operating in countries like the UK or the US that are as it were, genuine democracies.

28:03They can get access to places. They can, as you say, access universities, whereas it's a lot harder working the other way. But no, we shouldn't be too pious because the truth is everybody does it to everybody. But the question is how effective they are. And of course, the numbers do help. And we've talked before about the defunding of our defense and our security. And I think this is a real problem. I think the intelligence services will say that they've been pretty well funded, been able to adapt. But given the global reputation of our security services, I think you could argue that we've been left behind by some of the others.

28:39Exactly. And a big challenge for them is that since 9 -11, they move from doing almost nothing on counterterrorism to being almost 90 % focused on counterterrorism and lost the traditional focus that they had on political intelligence and having a big global network focusing on that kind of thing. So there's a big process. It's not just about budgets. It's rebuilding the strategic priorities and thinking about what Britain's trying to do in the world, but maybe on that a break. Take a break.

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30:20Welcome back to the rest of politics with me, Roy Stewart and me, Alistair Campbell. And Alistair, one of the things that I think has been great this week is you brought on your friend, Kathy Ashton, who was effectively the European Union Foreign Minister. We had an amazing conversation with her. I thought she's a quiet person, but in a really good way. I mean, she reminds me of some of my other heroes in politics who tend not to be Corbin. She's more like, she's more like, she has some of the positive qualities. She's a very different person of people I admire like batteries, may or David Gork.

30:53What do you think of the interview? I think it was good. People can find it on leading. Now, I think it was, we've got very good feedback. I think people enjoy these kind of run around the block that we have with people who've got a lot of direct experience of foreign policy and foreign affairs. I think it's interesting. I was looking recently at the listening figures of the leading episodes. The one that we did with Fiona Hill was incredibly popular. The one that we did with Jonathan Powell. I think people who've worked at the kind of cold face, not just, you know, because clearly Kathy Ashton was an significant political figure, but not an elected politician.

31:30She was like an official, a very senior official. And you had this phrase radical humility, which I'll be thinking about a lot. It's an interesting approach. And the other thing, I got a very nice message from some of the former Hashem Tatchi team. Because, you know, we talked about Tatchi who's currently in the International Criminal Court in the Hague on awaiting war crimes trial. And I got another message from a, actually from a French journalist who said that they found her description of the scene where she got the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia together in the room for the first time. She said this is like listening to somebody described the scene out of a film.

32:16So I think it was, she just brought that sort of ringside view of some of these people that, you know, the world talks about it all the time. I think the humility is very important because when people listen to the, to the end of you, what else see is that when she brings them into the room, she's not parading herself in the situation room, doing it all themselves, forcing it through. What she's really talking about is stepping back, listening and letting those leaders find their way to their own agreement. And she's very, very good about that. She's not boosting her own ego. I thought it was a really fascinating example of probably not just how to do diplomacy well, but probably the only way that we're going to be able to do it in the future.

33:04And also underlines the need for people who are not constantly worrying about the next election for themselves, but actually are able to kind of, as she taught, step back a little bit. But no, so I think people who listen to, seem to have really enjoyed it and those who haven't, I think they'd find it very, very interesting. Great. So Alastair, I think you wanted to bring us on to the G20, which I think am I right in saying is something that actually was founded when you, Tony Blair, Alice Campbell, when you were in government together in 99. So tell us a little bit about the G20 and then we'll talk about what's been happening in India.

33:41Well, I think it was a response to one of the several world economic crises and it was technically bringing together major economies. I think actually really got a lift during the kind of Obama Gordon Brown period. This one was just happened in India. Noticable for all sorts of things. First is the fact that Xi Jinping didn't turn up. Interesting. Putin obviously not there because of worries of being arrested for crimes if he leaves his own country. And on that sort of interrupt, but I think one of the things that Gordon Brown and others and you guys were trying to do with the G20 was deal with the fact that the G7 excluded China and was perceived as being a sort of western facade.

34:26And the G20 was trying to be more realistic about the new shape of the world. It was bringing in the bricks. It was more representative of the global economy and it wasn't seen as the kind of west against the rest set up, is that right? Yeah, well don't forget that for a period the G7 was the G8 because Russia was part of it. The G20 was a way of bringing in China. Also some of the Gulf states to where a lot of the power and the money was flowing. And now one of the big things that happened at this one was the addition now of the African Union. And I think maybe a reflection, not just of the fact that the G7, well the G7 was very much the voice of the West.

35:08It was, you know, America, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the European Union. So it was very much in Canada, sorry, and very much western thing. So this is, you know, you see at the G20 you've got Singapore, you've got Australia, you've got, you've got to say some of the Gulf states. But I think this one was very much fitting into the broader. We talked about Modi recently. And for me one of the most interesting things was the fact that Modi sat there at his desk in the, in the summit. And India had been replaced by Barat. And we talked about the indification of the country. And of course the opposition in India are coming together a bit like they tried with Erdogan, oppositions coming together.

35:59And they're calling themselves India based upon the initials of the movement that they've formed and up pops Modi to say that actually no, we're not called in, we're called Barat. I don't think this summit will be remembered much other than for this kind of Modi using it to further reposition himself. And on Ukraine, I mean, both Sunak and some of the other leaders of the kind of anti -brussia alliance at the moment coming out saying very strong language, etc, etc, etc. The section on Ukraine didn't even mention Russia, let alone, let alone call it an invasion. I guess this is the diplomatic problem.

36:38So we've talked a lot because we covered the G7 when I was in Japan, when the G7 met in Japan. And then we covered the bricks meeting in South Africa. And the new members have been joining. And we talked about the way in which the G7 which was 70 % of the world's economy in the 1970s has shrunk down to less than 40 % of the world's economy and how Brazil, Russia, India, China, these bricks and now the new countries that are joining are roughly equal in size. So the G20 is very, very interesting. I mean, it's almost a sort of example of what an expanded UN Security Council could look like because it's bringing the bricks and the G7 together.

37:18But what we're seeing as that tries to happen is we're getting a glimpse into what would happen if India, Brazil, South Africa and others were on the security council because they have a much more ambivalent attitude towards Russia and Ukraine than the West than it's something extremely uncomfortable for America, Britain and its allies to process. And I think you would also find they have a much more ambivalent attitude towards the US China confrontation than the US would like. Absolutely. And you've seen Lula at the summit saying he would not exercise the arrest warrant against Putin. India's been benefiting enormously as has China from cheap Russian oil and energy through this whole process.

38:00So in a way, this was a summit where people like Nuremberg, India and Lula of Brazil really emerged as a dominant figures. And Janet Yellen of the US and others were having to try to put a bit of a brave face on something that felt very different to the kind of G20 resolutions that you had in the 2008. I mean, G20 2008 was real kind of height of liberal global order. That's where Gordon Brown led to the big drive to forgive debt. I think that was Gerniegles, wasn't it? And was all about a very optimistic liberal version of the world addressing global poverty, promoting democracy, human rights.

38:40And it's now beginning to feel and maybe this is just to sign the world like a pretty old -fashioned rail polytique. Let's not step on anyone's toes type organisation. I mean, you can see why it's hard for the G20 to agree. So the language around Ukraine, you've got Lavrov. Putin couldn't go for the reasons we've said. So Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister is there representing Russia. So there's no way that Russia are going to put their name to something that as it were condemns Russia. But what it meant was that when it came to the language on Ukraine, inevitably it was watered down from even from a year ago.

39:19And I think that has been because of this, you call it ambivalence, but I'd say within New Year it's even more than that. I think they've been been pushing in a direction against some of the key policy positions of the US and the UK and and others. Modi is a fascinating character, but he used that summit very effectively, I think, for his own ends domestically and also to show how powerful he was and could be. And I think it was difficult for the Western leaders to know how to adapt. In Russia, soon, you know, he, on the plane out there, he was playing down the idea of getting the great trade deal that was being promised.

40:01And then when he landed, there was the expectation he was going to be having this great head -to -head shindig with Modi at his home and Modi cancelled and said no because he was having dinner with Biden. And soon that was sort of apparently left in his hotel having dinner with his wife. And not so there's anything wrong with having dinner with his wife. But you don't have much time at these summits. But relieved have dinner with your wife. It probably is. But my point is that I think they were all just very wary of how Modi was was playing them. And we've talked before about the United Nations Security Council because of the inbuilt veto power of all of them is fundamentally divided.

40:40The G7 is obviously can be easier to unite, but it's a bit of a more narrow view. But the more you broaden these international institutions, the less easy it is to get them to agree on the big stuff. G20 though, I'm wondering, maybe this is overly optimistic, but I wonder whether the G20 nonetheless isn't closest to being a body which you might want to lean into given that the UN system feels very, very broken at the moment. Security Council fatally divided and pretty narrow in its membership. The G7, small and it's been in the past, given how much we have to do in terms of climate AI poverty in terms of international governance and regulation.

41:22I wonder whether as a little pitch to your future labor government coming and whether actually the G20 isn't really the place to focus. Well, you can only do that if you were actually to admit openly that you felt the United Nations were broken. And that's a very difficult thing to do, particularly if we're one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. But yeah, in practical terms, I think you're right. Very interesting election going on last week, by the way, in the Maldives. I know the Maldives is not one of the biggest countries in the world, far from it. But the election is literally being seen as a battle between India and China.

41:53One of the candidates is pro -China, one of them pro -India, and it's almost like it's playing out as a proxy battle of this, of the bigger Geo's strategic picture. And it's the same as the French system. I think there are eight candidates. Nobody got over 50%. The challenge is on 46. The incumbents on 39, and it's now going to run off. But it's it's interesting. You think of a place like that at the Maldives, and we're all being drawn into these kind of bigger battles between bigger powers. It's amazing, isn't it? I think it's getting worse and worse than Maldivian politics, isn't it? Right there in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

42:33So there was a precedent, I think, from 2013 to 2018, who was very, very critical of India, and very pro -China, and then Beijing brought in a lot of money, lent the money, built infrastructure projects, and didn't criticize him. Then, Soli came back in and launched back into a more pro -Indian stance. I mean, you're right. We're going to be seeing this again and again, particularly in areas that are on the boundary through the Indian Ocean, through the South China Sea. Now, should we close off with the voice in Australia? If you managed to catch up a bit with the voice, go over there. Yeah, well, so this is something that, I mean, I think you've got much more to say about the me.

43:13So I'll just give my sort of 22nd attempt to summarize. So in Australia, there is a very deep, very dark story of the relationship between Indigenous Australians, Aboriginal peoples, First Nation peoples, and the people who've moved to Australia, basically invaded and occupied and colonized Australia since the late 18th century, early 19th century. I'm actually very interesting, just as I say, invaded and I was thinking about it, how difficult language is on this stuff. Of course, it's not my country and I can imagine there will be a lot of Australians listening, thinking, all this language of invasion and colonization sounds like I'm playing into a particular narrative that will resonate with them in a way that it doesn't with me.

43:56But it seems fair enough to me to say that this was a country a little bit, you know, like many, many other countries around the world, United States, New Zealand, where there was Indigenous population, it was basically overwhelmed by white colonial powers, in this case Britain. So the difference between New Zealand and which were about 25th and New Zealand Prime Minister and Australia is that in New Zealand, the Maori population is quite large. The Maori population of New Zealand is about 17 % of the population. In Australia, it's 3 % big, big difference. And of course, there are indicators on many things, life expectancy, poverty, health outcomes are much, much worse than those of other Australians.

44:42And so there is a big strong move from, initially driven by the late party, to give Indigenous communities a proper voice. And it's going to a referendum because this will be a formal legal voice in the constitution. And this will be something that would be illegal in the United States, the Supreme Court and the United States, would I think knock this down on grounds that it challenges the equality of citizens. And it's into the middle of this that you've been launched. And I think, my sense is you're very sympathetic towards this referendum over the I didn't interview the other day where I was asked the question, what's the book you wished you'd written?

45:20And I found myself saying a book called The Fatal Shore by some of you call Robert Hughes. And it's essentially the history of Australia, but through the eyes of the convicts who were sent from here. And it's just amazingly written, incredibly well researched book. And Australia, as you say, does have a relatively young country in historical terms, has a pretty difficult history. And the gap that you're talking about, successive generations have talked about trying to close the gap. The gap is still very, very, very, very wide. And I just think the sadness of what's happening at the moment is that a referendum, which is being led by the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, there are lots and lots of different groups, like any referendum.

46:07He obviously is the Prime Minister's legislated for this. It's happening on October the 14th. And I think that a bit like the Brexit referendum, a bit like lots of other referendums in different parts of the world, it's becoming about other things. And that's making it very, very, very difficult to win. I see it as a genuine attempt to give people a voice that at the moment they feel they're not heard. And it's not giving them that much power. But the problem is that it's being attacked now for being too weak. It's being attacked for being too strong. That's usually a sign that's probably in the right place if it's being attacked from those two directions.

46:45Well, of course, the thing is that there are three parts to this process. There's the voice, which is what's being voted on now. Then there's the issue of treaty. And then there's the issue of truth and reconciliation, call it what you will. And of course, what the opponents of the referendum are doing are they're able to move it to somewhere else to say, oh, this isn't really about just giving the voice. This is about giving having a treaty further down the track where we're going to end up paying reparations or we're going to end up having land tax. And we've talked a lot about how social media and technological changes change in the nature of these campaigns.

47:22I mean, I won't go through them now. But if you just Google conspiracy theories in the voice referendum debate, I mean, there's tons of them that are doing the wrong. So interesting, isn't it? That in the US, Native American politics, Native American interests are not a very major part of politics. But they are very, very strongly in using it. Marie politics really matters. Particles are very large. Chuck the population. We interviewed Mike Cognati, who was the leader of Liberal Party in Canada. And in Canada, First Nation communities are enshrined in the article 35 of the Canadian Constitution.

47:56They're recognized as independent groups. They're given very specific rights. Australia is a sort of a case in between because the population is smaller. But it is something that in the past, you know, has been very politically contentious. So left, right division, where I think, I mean, maybe this is unfair, but I'm actually Australian listeners to come and challenge me. But it's difficult not to feel that there may be bits of the Australian right who feel very threatened by trying to give too much recognition to Aboriginal communities. Yeah, sure. But that is what fuels some of the really horrific racism that's online at the moment.

48:36No, there's a little bit of the whole great replacement theory going on, which you know, when you think of the which is somewhat ironic, given who was replacing who? Well, the Aboriginal community has been there 60 ,000 years. I mean, it's a very, I mean, it's actually, it's really fascinating. I mean, the DNA studies and the studies of how human movement happened, how very, very early those communities got to us very much earlier, actually, the Native Americans got to the United States. The other issue, we should just explain for the real sort of voting nerds, which I know we have quite a few list is that the other thing that makes it a very, very big challenge is that to be successful, you have to have what's called a double majority.

49:16And that means that you have to have more than half of the total vote, okay? But you also have to have more than half of the voters in at least four of the six states. And at the moment, I think the the yes campaign is pretty confident that they'll win in Victoria and they'll probably win in New South Wales, not at all confident about winning in Queensland. I think they pretty much written that off and rested Australia also very difficult. So that means that the smaller states in a way, Tasmania, South Australia, they are going to be the two that will probably decide the outcome, the yes campaign was launched in Adelaide and South Australia.

49:58And it also means this is the difference with the first past post elections. It doesn't genuinely mean that even in areas where you're very, very, very, very strong, you have to get the vote up. So you can't just focus on those states where you think is it where the swing states are. Just to try to sort of finish them in a maybe this is going well beyond our area of expertise. But I'd love some thoughts on why this issue is so much more raw in Australia than it is in the United States because the Native American population in the US is not much below. It's about 2 .6 % compared to maybe 3 .1 % in Australia.

50:39Both countries lower than Canada significantly lower than New Zealand. Why do you think that it's so much more raw in Australia than it is in the US despite the fact that if you go to South Dakota and look at the Dakota community and the reservations there, their health indicators are terrible. The poverty in some of the Native American communities is a beyond imagining. Why is it a much more live in Australia than it is in the US? Look, the short answer is I don't know. But I wonder whether it's precisely because they have at least had a voice or they've at least felt that they've had a voice.

51:14Whereas I think a lot of the Aboriginal community feel utterly marginalized, utterly excluded. But I don't know we should maybe we should get somebody on perhaps who actually knows the answer to that question. I'd be very interested in maybe interviewing a leader of one of these communities from and maybe actually be interesting. Maybe we could do it with a leader of movement in the US and a leader of this movement in Australia and see if we can you know work through these issues together. Yeah. The other of course thing that's confusing, not confusing because I guess you could expect this but some of the most prominent voices against it are from the from politicians within the indigenous community.

51:55And of course they have I guess an added power and locust within the debate. And their criticisms again they vary some of them it's because as I said earlier it's just not doing enough. Others it's because they don't think it can be properly explained. And it's it's a very difficult thing this because the vote is to have the voice which is just 20 you know that's basically just the indigenous people choosing 24 representatives who can have their voice heard they're not making law they're not overturning the law of the camera parliament. I would argue it's actually quite measured and quite quite rational but it's been taken to a different place.

52:35And of course now with populism with the hard right it's so easy to kind of turn anything into a pretty divisive wedge issue. So I was talking to somebody in the S campaign the other day who said look you know it's still to play for it's a real struggle because they feel that they're spending their whole time saying what it's not as opposed to this is what it is and that's that's not a great place to be in a campaign. Right well thank you thank you for raising that and look forward to seeing you very soon. Speak soon.