In short
The Rest Is Politics: Episode 176 - Can the Tory Party be Saved?
Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart Podcast Description: Analysis of current affairs in the UK and abroad, featuring insider perspectives and expert analysis.
Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts discuss the recent Conservative Party Conference, the future of the Conservative Party, and international issues surrounding Kosovo and Serbia.
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Key Themes and Discussions
- Behind the Scenes of Party Conferences
- Atmosphere and Accessibility:
- Party conferences are often held in large cities like Birmingham and Manchester.
- Long security queues and expensive attendance discourage grassroots involvement.
- Increasingly corporate atmosphere with limited engagement from local constituents.
- Historical Context:
- Contrast between past conferences (e.g., seaside towns) and current practices.
- Decline in attendance from grassroots members; now filled with business interests.
- Networking and Events:
- Conferences include various events, but many MPs find them exhausting and costly.
- The nightlife is described as overwhelming, with numerous parties and events.
- Current State of the Conservative Party
- Moderates vs. Right-Wing Dynamics:
- Hosts express concern over the increasing extremism of the party, driven by figures like Liz Truss and Priti Patel.
- Discussion on the narrative of the conference and how it alienates moderate members.
- Challenges to Leadership:
- Rishi Sunak's leadership under scrutiny, with worries about his ability to present credible policies.
- Concerns that the Conservative Party is losing its centrist identity, potentially leading to electoral defeat.
- Future Prospects:
- Speculation about the need for a leadership change in the event of a loss in the next election.
- Discussion of the potential for rebuilding the party towards a more centrist ideology.
- Kosovo and Serbia: A Growing Tension
- Historical Background:
- Kosovo's declaration of independence in 2008 and the ongoing issues related to recognition and ethnic tensions.
- The complex history involving ethnic cleansing during the Yugoslav Wars.
- Recent Developments:
- Increased violence and military posturing between Serbia and Kosovo.
- The impact of nationalist rhetoric in both Serbia and Kosovo, exacerbating tensions.
- International Implications:
- Discussion on how the EU's lack of commitment to Serbia’s accession has contributed to rising tensions.
- Commentary on the role of populist leaders within the region, particularly Vucic's dual narrative for domestic and international audiences.
- The Importance of Rebuilding the Conservative Party
- Need for a Centrist Coalition:
- The necessity for moderate voices to reclaim the party from the current right-wing populism.
- Historical examples of parties returning to the center after periods of extreme leadership.
- Critique of Current Leadership:
- Rishi Sunak's focus on populist messages contrasted with the need for responsible governance.
- The danger of following a path similar to that of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, which veered too far left.
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Key Takeaways
- The Conservative Party is at a crossroads, struggling between moderates and an increasingly extreme right faction.
- Effective monitoring of international conflicts like Kosovo and Serbia is essential, as they may escalate further without intervention.
- The rebuilding of the Conservative Party may require a painful period of defeat and reflection to return to a more centrist and responsible ideology.
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Closing Remarks The hosts encourage listeners to engage in discussions about the political landscape both in the UK and abroad, emphasizing the importance of moderate voices in maintaining a healthy political environment. They conclude with a preview of upcoming discussions, particularly around the Labour Party Conference.
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Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Thanks for listening to the Restus Politics, sign up to the Restus Politics Plus to enjoy ad -free listening and receive a weekly newsletter. Join our members' chat room again early access to live show tickets. Just go to therestuspolitics .com. That's therestuspolitics .com. At Blinds .com, it's not just about window treatments. It's about you. Your style, your space, your way. Whether you DIY or want the pros to handle it all, you'll have the confidence of knowing it's done right. From free expert design help to our 100 % satisfaction guarantee, everything we do is made to fit your life and your windows.
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0:50Welcome to the Restus Politics with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Aust Campbell. Good and Alistair, what are we on with this week? We're going to have to talk about this wretched Conservative Party conference, which is doing my head in. You want to have a chat about what the centre -right, the sort of moderate mainstream Conservative Party does in the face of the nonsense and madness that's going on. And then we want to talk about Kosovo, yet another huge story of international significance, which is getting the nodivating space in the UK media. But I guess we should start with the Dory Party conference because I've been not good for my mental health, but I've been watching rather a loss of it.
1:29So very quickly on party conferences, I have been to ten of them. And they let me just give you a little bit of a sense, because I think the public doesn't always see this how bizarre they are. The Conservatives alternate in my time between Birmingham and Manchester. So they used to do these seaside towns like Blackpool. But now they do these enormous conference centres in Birmingham and Manchester. And there are these very, very long security cues to get in and out and these passes you have to wear, which means it's actually pretty difficult to interact with the normal city around you. Every time you try to pop out for a drink, or if you're an MP with a relatively small salary staying in a cheap hotel on the other end of town, there's a huge line of cues to try to get in and out through these security lines.
2:13You then get in. And in the middle of them, there are all these events happening. So there are the main events which used to be popular. I don't seem to be any more, but used to fight to try to get in and see the Prime Minister. There are endless stands of people trying to sell you, if you're a Tory, I don't know what they sell at the Labour Party conferences, but I think Tory sells sort of sell you walking sticks and tweed caps and copies of Boris Johnson's book on the Roman Empire. And then there are these alternation between seeing your constituents where you have slightly overpriced sandwiches or a cocktail at a local hotel outside the conference with your constituents who've come down.
2:50But increasing they don't come down because they've become so expensive. It's hundreds of pounds to attend. So the old days in blackpool and places where you'd have 20 ,000 delegates coming down have largely gone. So the increasingly you've got business people filling it rather than your own constituency. I would often only have five or six people from my local association there. And then in the evenings you have these terrifying parties. So you have, you know, sky news with the music going. You've got this horrible thing we've been seeing of which we really never need to see again, but we'll put in the show notes anyway.
3:21I've pretty potelle dancing with Nigel Farage. You have the Scottish party, which is always one that, you know, you've got to turn up to then there'll be a party hosted by Israel. There'll be party hosted by Middle Eastern governments. There will be governments like Azerbaijan in the old days. Always trying to get people in and persuade them to go on and all caviar included trip to Azerbaijan. It's a pretty terrifying set of thing. And of course, it's during the MP's holiday. So many of them are sitting there. They've got to pay out of their own pocket. They can't claim on expenses. This big ticket and their hotel bills.
3:55So many of them, I think, just stay away because they can't quite bear the thing. I guess I've been to about 20 Labour conferences. But of course, when I was a journalist, they used to go to the Tories and the Lib Dems and the TUC as well. What was the difference between them when you went? What's roughly your cliche difference between three conferences? Lib Dems, you sort of spend most of the time thinking, what the hell am I doing here? I'm not going to get much of a paper from this. But quite nice people and quite interesting. Quite honest, quite idealistic. Yeah, quite... There was a period.
4:28You mentioned the foundation of the SDP. There was a period when that whole kind of liberal Democrat space was much more exciting politically than maybe it is now. Were you ever tempted when Shirley Winnieham's and Roy Jenkins left? Was that a moment where you ever thought... No, no, no, I didn't. Did you see them as traitors where people let you very angry with them? Traitor over states it, I understood why they did it. But I did see them ultimately as people who, in the short term, were helping the conservative party. But maybe in the long term, I don't know whether you could argue that they made the Labour Party come back to a more sensible position by leaving.
5:04Labour conferences, obviously, we're politically, I feel much more at home. I think I probably swear to say I probably have better memories of Labour conferences from my drinking days because there is a phenomenal amount of alcohol gets consumed at these conferences and that was never very good. Tory conferences, I always felt that I was sort of treated like... I don't know, there was something about it. You still like to sort of... I think they knew that they could pick fights and I'd get very air -rated and angry with them. But I think the Tory parties in the early days were much, much more stage -managed than Labour.
5:36And I think maybe we then started to stage -manage hours a bit more. But I've got to be honest, I didn't enjoy... When I was working for the Labour Party, I didn't enjoy conference because, of course, it is a really work -wise, if you're working with the leader, it's bloody hard work. He had to go out to all these wretched parties, literally go out and do about 10, 14 parties in the evening, which on the Saturday Sunday Monday before the speech on the Tuesday, I would say, well, you go out, I'm staying in there. And I will honestly become incredibly anti -social. And I would see the press twice a day, maybe I'd make a few phone calls, but otherwise I'd work in a hotel room on the speech with people like David Milliband and Philip Gordon, Peter Hyman, and we just...
6:19That's what I would do, obviously. And the speeches were really big deals. I mean, we'll get a chance to talk about Kirsta and the speech next week, but they were great set piece occasions, weren't there with huge amounts of expectation writing on them? Yeah. And also really big moments. And, you know, my first... Was that your close format? Was that conference? That was the first Labour Party Conference's leader. And my very first conference was Neil Kinnex, um, Millicent speech, which was probably to this day the most single, most electrifying speech I've ever attended at a party conference.
6:50That was in Bournemouth. I mean, we put so much work into those speeches, and I get the feeling these days with speeches. I mean, honestly, I've watched some of the Conservative speeches. They've been pretty. The quality's been dire. It really has. There's nobody there with a big argument. I thought James cleverly, the foreign secretary, this is what the funniest, because there were about eight people in the room, and his whole speech was about how everybody listened to what Britain said in the world, you and I know is no longer true, particularly since Brexit, but they weren't even listening at his own conference.
7:20I mean, the first thing is the amazing dichotomy of different narratives coming out. So I'm very disturbed by some of the stuff that's coming out of the conference. And we'll get into that. And then just to wind me up, one of my former colleagues who's in the cabinet, and who I like very much has just sent me an email saying, um, conference is very jolly and Rishi Sunaik increasingly reminds me of you, Rory. So that was a good way to put me on the back. Just before I begin. Just before I begin complaining about the conference. No, it's been absolutely terrifying from my point of view. It's as though there is a concerted attempt to try to drive every last moderate out of the conservative party just to give you three little clips of that.
8:00There's pretty Patel dancing with Nigel Farage. Horrible. And pretty Patel giving a speech saying that the Brexit hating, true suppressing, I think it was true suppressing, was it was freedom denying BBC and so -called mainstream media. Her point being that she was to say that GB News was a wonderful TV station. Yeah, this right when the news station is absolutely fantastic. They were applauding. And then you had, um, let's trust signing, would you believe it's signing copies of her mini budget and speaking to a packed room. Now, admittedly, the room when I looked at more closely looked as though it was considerably smaller.
8:36She wasn't doing well, Boris Johnson did, which is trying to fell a massive room. But anyway, she got fair number of people turning up. And Jake resmogged my third thing that really offended me is, you know, we've been infuriating Minette Batters recently, the head of the National Farmers Union and it's infuriating on leading. She's going to be coming up in the next few weeks. And she was talking about the incredible strains that the Australian trade deal is imposing on British farmers. And there's Jake can resmog out there saying, I love Australia and beef. I love hormones and my beef. And it's horrifying.
9:04Shotgun. What do you make of it all? All of that. All of the above. And more, I mean, I think that in terms of the kind of debate around the, as far as there is a debate, the issue that's had by far the most media coverage has been this, will they won't they HS2 to Manchester? Well, it's perfectly obvious that they're not going to, and that soon that's going to announce that in his conference speech. But if I hear him one more time, say speculation and the phrase, we've got spades in the ground. I mean, putting a spade in the ground doesn't necessarily mean that you actually build anything. But he has these sort of little phrases that he uses again and again and again and again.
9:45Do you think that's where he reminds people of me? Well, I hope not. I'm honest. He does not remind me of you at all. And one thing I've noticed about you is that I think you share my absolute abhorrence. And I know that there are lots of people out there because of Iraq and they think that we're a bunch of lies as well. And I actually am not. And I know that we didn't. I and I actually find it quite difficult to lie. But I get the thing that you are as offended as I am by this post -truthery. Well, on the post -truthery, I have a big big apology to make, which is in the podcast last week. I said that the HS2 costs had risen to 300 billion and they haven't.
10:30I've got that wrong by a massive factor of three. So they've gone risen to just over 100 billion. On that, that's really interesting because when you said that, I thought, that's wrong. But you sort of, this is how post -truth works. You start to think, oh, maybe he's right. He's probably researched it. But we've had, we've had a few amazing examples recently. We've had Rishi Sunat with his seven bins. Okay, complete nonsense. I'm going to stop you having to have seven bins. Nobody was proposing it. And then the last 24 hours on the conference platform, we've had two members of the cabinet. Same things, which are just completely untrue.
11:05We should put in the in the newsletter a clip of the interview that Sophie Ridge on Sky News did with Claire Coutinho, who is a member of the cabinet, where she said, as a fact, Keir Starmer is putting a tax on meat. This was a lie that Sunat launched. And honestly, Sophie Ridge tries to get her to just do admit that he's not. The Keir Starmer has not said that. And she sort of goes into this thing, well, people are concerned. People are concerned that people might think about it. I think it's a point about the sort of anxiety of politicians to admit that they've been wrong, or they've said something that's not true and acknowledge it straight out.
11:47What I'd hope that we do at the beginning of that thing is to say, you're completely right, I should never say that. I was totally wrong. I don't know where that came from. Presumably what she's doing, I guess, is repeating what she said the prime minister said, without thinking about it. This is what makes me worry that this is kind of weird strategy going on. The whole thing about Donald Trump is alternative facts that you just, you make people so confused, they don't know what to believe anymore. And this was, this was Dominic Cummings, wasn't it, which was the number on the bus, which I think he did deliberately knowing that it wasn't true, hoping that that would outrage the media into reporting the facts, wasn't true and get more coverage for his lie than he would have got for the truth.
12:27Yeah, exactly. And a lot of people want to believe that all politicians are liars and they want to believe that they're all playing the same games. But this seems to me that this is just reaching the levels of weirdness. So, yesterday you had Mark Harper, transport secretary who literally, with his mouth, words coming from his lips to the effect that because of this 15 minute city's thing, which we've talked about before, councils will tell you when you can't go to the shops. But fantasy, can I just quickly explain what 15 minutes city's thing is? We did talk about it on a podcast, but some months ago now.
13:07So, 15 minute cities is something which has been championed by many progressive mayors around the world. And it's something I tried to champion when I was running to be Mayor of London, which is the idea of essentially creating smaller, more walking accessible communities, making sure that within 15 minutes of where you live, there's a proper mixed urban environment shops, community centers, ideally libraries, all the sort of stuff. And what's happened is that conspiracy theory has developed in which the idea is that instead of it being a positive thing where you try to create proper mixed urban architecture sense for village, you know, London, maybe a 700 villages, which is where I'd like to think about it.
13:48They're now trying to suggest that it's a plot, gone once more from Mark Harper, he's saying. He's saying that what he calls sinister, sinister, is that councils will tell you when you can't go to the shops. And what shops you can shop in and what you can't, and what he means is by trying to encourage you to shop locally, he's now turned it into they're actually going to dictatorially insists that you can only go to those shops and you can't go to the supermarkets three miles down and as with Claire Coutinho, who I think by the way, I think I think these people now taught rubbish and lie and gas lights so incessantly that they just don't think they're going to get picked up on it.
14:28And because we had as a prime minister, Boris Johnson, and I think Sunak Franklin is in some ways becoming just as bad in terms of his ability to say things that are complete nonsense. But because they weren't really picked up on it by the media, they just sort of think they can do is I actually think Claire Coutinho was just a bit taken aback that Sofie Ridge decided to ask her 10 times whatever it was. Sofie Ridge to quite gently didn't she, it wasn't a kind of Jeremy Paxman dress for I thought it was quite good journalists and it's quite gentle, she waited, she let Claire Coutinho finish and then she just say again, but that isn't the meat tax is it?
14:59No, and also who kept saying to me, when did he start, I might ever say that? And then she said this thing, oh well, you know, he's a vegetarian. He doesn't eat meat and an Ed Miliband doesn't like meat because he got photographed with the bacon sandwich. The whole thing was utterly ridiculous. But then you had this thing about, you know, so that they're all ministers, they have to sort of, you know, collective responsibility and all that. So Andrew Bowie, who is a minister of who most of our listeners probably haven't heard, but he was on the radio yesterday, where he was being grilled about Mark Harper talking about the 15 -minute cities and the councils.
15:33And he said, oh no, he's got a point because people are very concerned about this, people are very concerned that this is where it might be going. Well, but it's not happening, nobody's proposing it. Yes, but people are concerned to which the interview is Evan Davis, he said, well, they're only concerned because you're trying to make them concerned about myths and fantasies. Yeah, so one of the interesting things which is a bit inside baseball, but to explain is that actually people like Andrew Bowie are on the moderate center left of the party. You know, they were my sort of friends who were more on the remains side.
16:05And what's happening, and I think this is what makes it sad, is that everybody's being dragged into this narrative, or nor Clocotino, Clocotino's seen as a pretty sort of centrist moderate. So what's disturbing about it is that this sort of narrative, which I guess is in some briefing document. I mean, I don't know whether you did this when you were doing comms for labor, but certainly what happened by the time I got in, is that you were given these talking points, this is what you have to hammer at the conference. And it would probably have included references to Labour's environmental taxes or Labour being soft on immigration or, you know, Labour pushing for 15 -minute cities.
16:45And everybody, and this one of the things that's so sickly about being a politician is that even people from the center left who feel a bit queasy about it, are being made to read out these talking points, because it's what's number 10's told them to do. But do they never have the sort of sufficient intelligence and confidence in their own minds to say I'm not going to talk complete and total rubbish? The problem is the culture. So the culture is all about loyalty and defending your colleagues. So even if Mark Harper makes the tit of himself, it's not possible for you to distance yourself too much, or that creates a new kind of headline, and then all your colleagues think that you're a monster and you've betrayed them, and number 10 comes often.
17:25What's your suggestion? If you were, who's on the other foot, how would you if you were somebody from the central left party who didn't really approve of what Mark Harper had said and were being repeatedly asked to distance yourself from him, but he's a cabinet minister? What's the best way of handling it? Probably I was saying that I wouldn't describe the policy in those terms, or I don't know, I think you can do it quite easily. But they were all just doubling down, and I think we are into this world of alternative facts. I heard a wonderful line about Sunat, by the way. I think you'll appreciate this as a writer and an academic.
17:58Somebody who worked with him in the treasury, civil servant said the thing about Sunat is that he's all appendices and no forward. I thought that was absolutely brilliant. It's the details, man. Well, he's not, but it's more that he sort of bounces around, and the thing about the talking point, so I'm doing another interview where they've obviously been told this week is about cars and towns. So we've got the plan for motorists, which I think is a big risk for them, not just because of the environmental implications, but also, let's be honest, driving in Britain at the moment is a pretty horrible experience.
18:35So I think you've just got millions of people sitting in cars thinking, God, Rishi Soonat said he was on our side, and here we are stuck in yet another traffic jammer, and now another road works where nothing's been done. And the other thing that he did today was he kept, he just kept saying the word towns. And so you're right, I think they get these kind of scripts, but he's the prime minister, and he's coming over to me as somebody just incredibly kind of piddling. What is he doing talking about 20 mile hour speed limits? That's sort of junior transport ministers jobs. So let's go, let's maybe jump ahead a little bit and talk about some of you, you mentioned at the beginning, which is what would it take to really save the conservative party and get it back into the center ground?
19:16And I agree that there will be a lot of listeners who don't care about that. But I think oddly, everybody should care about it. I don't think Britain was in a good place when Corbin was running the Labour party, and I don't think Britain will be in a good place if the opposition is run by a bunch of right wing populists, because we see that. I mean, there's a playbook around the world of how that works out. So just quickly to get into that, I think the first thing to understand is that already, Liz Truss, pretty Patel and others are behaving as though they're an opposition to the existing government.
19:49So the conservative party is really wrenching itself apart. And when the Conservatives lose the next election, there will be a leadership election. Are you now when or if? I'm when. I think that's also what's sad about what, and modern sad, very, very disappointing about what Rishi Sinox doing on the environmental stuff, because I think that he's desperately doing it in the hopes that he can claw back a few points, but he's 20 points behind. And it would be better to do things which he genuinely believes in or in the long -term interest of the party. Now, I don't know. There wasn't article that I forwarded.
20:25I don't know whether you looked at it. I did. Where somebody suggested that actually Peter Manelson advised Gordon Brown in 2008, 2009 to conduct himself with dignity, except that he was going to lose, but make sure he didn't lose by too much. So the Labour Party has some to rebuild from. I don't know who wrote that. I didn't recognise that at all. And I guess the answer is you can never do that, presumably no party can ever do that. Well, I think you can be realistic. You never realistic expectations, but you have to fight as though you think you're going to win, or you think you can win. And I think Sinox, a few weeks ago, might have had that mindset.
21:01I mean, to be fair to him, I think he's ridiculous on many levels, but you know, you just get out of bed every day and kind of get out there and he's got a bit of energy and he's got a bit of ump and so forth. But he just, I think, is coming over as increasingly ridiculous with these sort of bouncy interview. He did one today saying how well everything is going. I mean, you've got to sort of be in the real world. I mean, that event you and I did this morning when I said to them, you know, is anybody watching, been following the Conservative Party conference? I mean, they all started laughing. So one of the most interesting things.
21:31So we didn't event together this morning with an audience, so I guess about 150 people and you asked how many of them had thought about being, you know, politicians, and I guess seven or eight put up their hand. I then asked how many of them were members of political parties and it was sort of two or three, right? So three times the number one to be politicians even prepared to join a political party. And that I think is, you know, to bring us back to this question of what's happening to the Conservative Party? When my mother was a member of the Conservative Party in her youth, there were 2 .3 million members of the party that are now just over 100 ,000.
22:04That means that in most constituencies, there are safe Cautury seats, there'll be 350, 400 Conservative Party members and of those only about 50 activists really count. So our democracy at the moment is being driven by 50 activists in each constituency who are much older than the general population, much more right wing, the general population. They're the ones that trust and Patel and Bravaman and increasingly Farage, I think. I think the other thing I found extraordinary this conference is the extent to which Lys Truss and Nigel Farage appear to me to be the kind of, the rock stars of the week, the ones that are getting kind of, you know, heroes welcome as they go around the place, Lys Truss who absolutely smash the economy and Nigel Farage who probably has done more damage to the Tory party than any politicians since Tony Blair, I'd have said.
22:53No, it's really, really disturbing. So part of the narrative that they're working on, just to deepen the problem for a second and then on to how the party can be saved is that they've convinced themselves that the party member's party faithful, that they were betrayed because they voted for Boris Johnson and then the MPs got rid of them without asking them and then they voted for Lys Truss and the MPs basically forced out Lys Truss and they ended up with Rishi Sunak who they didn't vote for. And the fundamental problem with Rishi Sunak's campaign, which feels like it's trying to tip towards the right, towards the populist right, feels like it's out of a playbook where we've got the culture secretary talking about statues, we've got transports actually talking about 15 minutes cities, we've got all this talk from Swella Bravo and about multiculturalism, isn't working focus on stopping the boat.
23:43So it's anti -immigration, it's the culture wars and now it's the environment stuff, it's let's push out the dates, we don't need to convert petrol and diesel vehicles, we don't need to bring in alternative energies quick as we thought. So feels like he thinks that he might be able to win by creating dividing lines between quite a hard populist right, the sort of 2019 coalition up in the northeast in the same way as Boris Johnson did in 2019, but it's not going to work for them, it's not going to work because Boris Johnson had two advantages, he was running at a time when people were desperate to resolve the Brexit standoff and he was running against Jeremy Corbyn, those two things are not true.
Read the full transcript
24:23These messages you're getting from people saying that Rishi Sunak reminds them of you, are they now saying to you that they think it's when not here for the Tories lose? Is that a mindset that you think is infecting the entire Conservative Party? I think there's a really interesting problem here, which is that a lot of people are very fond of Rishi Sunak, a lot of my friends who are from the centre left of the party and I think that's partly because they were so traumatised by Boris Johnson List Trust, it's partly because he's courteous, he does his work, he reads the details, he delegates, so if you're in the cabinet, you feel more respected than you did under Boris Johnson List Trust.
24:59He's very right -wing though, isn't he? Where is political compass lies? He's very right -wing, much more right -wing than Johnson in many ways. Yeah, but nobody quite recognises this, I think partly because he's much more courteous, much more softly spoken, he seems much more reasonable, but you're right, he's somebody who wasn't early committed Brexit here, he clearly sometimes seems to talk as though he believes the Singaporean -Tem staff about the British economy. So there's a gap and I think the explanation for it is that the party is unbelievably loyal, when I think loyalty is at the key of the way these parties work.
25:36I mean, I also found it difficult to understand why people stayed with the Labour Party when Jeremy Corbyn running it. I mean, you know, I and colleagues of mine left the Conservative Party because we could not bear Boris Johnson being our boss, we didn't want to stand for him, we didn't want to campaign for him, but of course many of my Labour colleagues stuck with Jeremy Corbyn and went into elections with his face on the manifesto's campaign forum, and that I think brings us to how these parties get rebuilt because probably the only way the Conservative Party will be rebuilt is not through people like me or Ken Clark who left and discussed, it will be by some of the moderates who held their nose, stayed loyal, put up with Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss, and eventually when the party's gone totally mad and decides it has to move back to the centre to win an election, you know, after Suela Bravman in four, five years time, might rebuild it again.
26:27What do you reckon? Well, the only thing about that is that you see, we didn't expel in the way that Boris Johnson did, so you mentioned yourself and Ken Clark and there were many others, they were expelled and it's very hard to get back in once that's happened to you. There's a couple of things I say though, the first is that I can remember in 1992, the day after Labour lost that election, doing an interview on the television, I was with Peter Jenkins, the then commentator on the independent, and he said if Labour can't win in these circumstances, this is in 1992, I don't think they'll ever win again.
27:01Five years later, we're on our landslide. 2019, Jeremy Corbyn leads Labour to a pretty devastating defeat against Boris Johnson's Conservative party, and here we are four years later, and the judgement is including in that room, we're in this morning and pretty much every audience who's peaked at the moment, Labour are going to win, so things can turn around, but you need the people in there to turn them around. So kick here, it's obvious to me that Tony is one of the lines they're going to run at Keir Starmer, is that how can you believe a word this guy says when he sat there alongside Jeremy Corbyn, telling every year to be the Prime Minister?
27:37Now, I actually do believe that that Keir Starmer, part of his thinking at that time, as he went into politics, relative and late in life, was he looking at Jeremy Corbyn, probably thinking this guy's not going to win, the Labour party is going to have to rebuild after he goes, and maybe I can be in the position to do that job, to have got himself into that position, he had to stay as a leading figure in the party. But it's interesting, but question wasn't because obviously other people made different decisions, I guess, Chuck Amuna left, trying to think of all the MPs who left their time. Oh, Luciana Berger, Chris Leslie, there were people who left, and you could say, you know, where are they now?
28:17Yeah, and that's the same with me in the Tory party, and I think this is why politics is so difficult because at some level, to get to the top, obviously you have to stay in the game, and that means compromising. If you are too uncompromising and say, I'm not going to put up with Jeremy Corbyn as my leader, I'm not going to fight for him in election, because I think he's awful, all the same with Boris Johnson, you don't get to stick around. Somebody pointed out that in a way, this was true in Labour, even back in the day, that part of the secret of Labour coming back from the madness of Michael foot, maybe madness is unfair, but the, the slightly unelectability of Michael foot, was people like Jack Straw, who not the Roy Jenkins is, right, not the, so we're not going back in the tension history.
29:01So for younger people, I'm probably speaking what happened to Labour Party in the early 80s, is that Shirley Williams, Roy Jenkins, these were sort of monumental figures in the Labour Party, really couldn't bear the direction Labour was going in and left to set out the SDP, which was a sort of one point, this incredibly exciting centrist party that was dominating the pinnipoles. And they seemed to be the noble charismatic people and people at Jack Straw, who've been elected in 79 and stuck around, looked as though he was slightly sort of shilly shalying around and compromising. But in the end, of course, New Labour was built off the Jack Straws, it wasn't built off the Roy Jenkins and Shirley Williams.
29:39Yeah, and it goes back to something we've talked about a lot, which is our electoral system and the difficulties of being creating a new political force that challenges the headgemony of the big two. But, you know, Neil, can it led the Labour Party through the period that he did and incredibly well in terms of laying the foundations for what followed, then John Smith, then Tony Blair. And the other point, I think it's important for people to remember, this thing about how change can happen quickly these days, maybe much faster than it used to. His case time was trying to do in one parliamentary term, what Neil John Tony did over, over several.
30:18Look, I don't know. I'm among those people who you mentioned to start, who it really wouldn't bother me if they could serve the party, it didn't rebuild. But I do agree with you that if you have an opposition in our system that is completely Trumpian, you know, dominated by people like Bravaman and Patel and Leanderson and the populist voices of the hard right, I think that is a real problem for the country, not least because of the message that it sends beyond these shores as well. And it's going to get much worse because at the moment, they are slightly, you wouldn't believe it, but they are slightly pulling their punches because they're in party as in government.
30:54As soon as Labour's in government, these guys are going to be appearing on GB news and going far more radical, you know, their statements on immigration and things are going to go out of the window because they won't be remotely held back by the sense that they have some responsibility for the situation. Another theme that you talk about in your book is the is the kind of death of shame. Look, I'll be absolutely honest, if I was Liz Truss and I did to the economy, what she did just over a year ago, I think I'd immigrate, I think I'd have plastic surgery, I'd change the way I look, I'd probably wear a wig, I'd go and live in the foreign country, I hope nobody would ever see me like one of the great train robbers.
31:34Well, I think, well, in face a very good parallel because of course, the great trade robbers either way saw themselves as these kind of epic folk heroes. And that phrase that Ben Elton said about Rishi Sunat that he's dripping with vanity, watching Liz Truss yesterday with her sort of these adoring young men or around her. It was horrific and she's posing for selfies, she's got no self -awareness, but no apology. It's horrific. Okay, let me, let me, let me then just to close this thing off. So there's a very interesting collection of essays brought together by David Gork, my political hero, called the case for the center right.
32:13I have contributed, I have contributed. I have contributed. And these should declare an interest? I declare an interest. Yeah, contributing, S .A. Mine is not the most distinguished S .A. in that group, but it's a, it's a great group of people trying to make the case for restoring the conservative. Okay, boil it down. Tell me in one sentence, if you have to sort of where's the center of gravity in their argument? Central gravity is that in the end, the smart electoral future for any party is in the center ground. And you've got to be able to win over younger, more educated voters around cities.
32:46And that the current path, the conservative party, which is appealing to older, less educated people in remote areas is not a sustainable electoral path. So that's this central argument. But I think they also make some very good arguments for what a better conservatism could be. It could be proud of the union, really put the union first. It could be fiscally conservative, responsible in the way that we think about borrowing and debt. It could be generous in international policy and international development. It could be steely eyed, but determined and idealistic on climate. But is all the things that this conservative party is deliberately and willfully rejecting?
33:27Yeah. And the path now to rebuild is difficult because of the people writing for it, people like me, David Gorkin, Abba Rudd, are no longer in. So you've got to get moderate conservatives back into the party. And that also means that we've rebuilt the conservative party in the country. So if people are serious about this, we need 30 ,000 people joining the conservative party who are from the moderate liberal center to actually change the way the party operates. And then I think probably the party needs to go through a period of defeat. It probably needs, unfortunately, to elect the Suela Bravenman figure, realize how unpopular and toxic that type of politics is.
34:03And then find its way back because in the end, the conservative party wants to win. That's how David Cameron did it. So after the end, Duncan Smith, Fiasco and Michael Howard essentially, in the end, the party members wanted to win. And that's what allowed them to bring back somebody who was more from the center ground. I think Nigel Farage thinks he can end up as leader of the conservative party. Oh, well, we heard that here first. Something to watch. My final observation of the conservative party conference is, didn't get much coverage, but Jeremy Hunt's speech, I found pretty disturbing as well.
34:35I think to put, when you think he's the chance for these checkered dealing with really difficult economic situation, and it seems to me that this government has completely given up on going after the big tax avoidance. And he made a big thing about going for this, this stuff about people on benefits, not being workshop. And I just felt that it felt straight out of the populist playbook. And I think we should put in the newsletter. There's a, I don't know who this guy is, but he's called at Red North UK. And he did a really kind of very, very long thread of real cases of people, including many who take in their own lives of people who've been put through absolute hell by this, but by the work of a capability assessment under this government.
35:17So I found that quite disturbing because he's meant to be one of the last sort of grown up standing, isn't he? Yeah, well, thank you, Alice, for all very, very depressing. But you are going to be going to the Labour Party conference next week and reporting from the front line and telling us what you find there. Well, we go for a bad day. He said with, with much experience of party conferences and not that much enthusiasm. Very good. Thank you. See you after the break.
35:49This isn't ad from BetterHelp. At the moment, we're getting advice from everywhere. You just have to go on TikTok. Could be Alice's cold plunges. Could be my attempts to meditate or the digital detox that I'm doing in Colombia. But of course, one of the things that we know is that it can be incredibly valuable to talk to another human being, somebody who's actually been trained as the therapist to work through these ideas, calmly objectively and professionally. And as the largest online therapy provider in the world, BetterHelp can provide access to mental health professionals with a very diverse variety of expertise.
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37:12Welcome back to the rest of the politics with me, Alex Campbell. And me, Rory Stewart. And we've just been doing a little bit on party conference, but it's a good segue into Theresa May because of course Theresa May will be famous both for her dancing queen performance at a party conference. And also for having a terrible moment where she essentially broke down on stage at one of these big party gatherings and lost her voice. I should have lost her. She didn't break down. Well, it was a very, very, I was, you know, it's a very, very strange moment in her life. But we've interviewed her on the podcast.
37:46And I think I'm really pleased with the way it's come out. I didn't encourage people to listen to it. I think Alex, are you brought out of sight of her that I haven't often seen in interviews? It's a, you know, she can come across obviously famous C, sometimes a little bit wooden. But I thought she, um, thought she really engaged and took it seriously and you were quite challenging. And it worked well. So I'd really encourage people to listen. What did you think of it? If you own a my partner, um, listen to both episodes in one go because she's a subscriber to the rest of the politics of obviously.
38:12Well done. Yes. But she, she said she thought she thought she came over really, really well. And I said I was a little bit worried. I was maybe a bit too soft. And she said no, she didn't think that at all that she thought actually it was quite challenging without being rude. No, I think, I think you landed everything you wanted to land. I think you made all the points you met tonight, but you did it relatively respectfully. And you had a bit of back and forth. I thought that was, that was an impressive stuff. So in Flyk Fiona, you want to hear part two before next Monday. You can do so by going to the rest of politics .com.
38:45Very good. So there we go. So shall we talk about Kosovo? A land, a very, very small land, which is a very large place in my heart. Because, of course, the Kosovo war back in the late 90s was a, was a huge part of our first, um, and it sort of feels like it's a little bit on the edge again. It's very, it's very, very, very sad. And we've been talking about Kosovo a little bit over the podcast. This is loyal listeners will remember that we've been raising this as a potential problem area for months now. It feels very, very dangerous. And there's a very high likelihood now of a proper conflict breaking out in Kosovo.
39:25But just to go back very, very quickly for younger listeners to the history of this, Kosovo is an area of, um, former Yugoslavia and that Serbia, which had as a predominantly Albanian Muslim population 92 % 90 % as so it's about 1 .8 million people, about 50 ,000 or so Orthodox Serbs. But it is a place that was historically incredibly important in the national imagination of the Serbian people because its society have very famous Orthodox monasteries, Serbian Orthodox monasteries. But it's also the site of a great battle at the Battle of Kosovo Polyia, which for the Serbs is like Waterloo was for the 19th century for the Victorian Brits.
40:11They're great fight against the Ottoman hordes and the defense of Serbian civilization. So when the Albanian Muslim community was really pushing for autonomy, there was a brutal reaction from Slobadan Lossovic, who was then the leader, which began to result in attacks that were leading to ethnic cleansing. And this is now in in 1999 and it is at that point, and I'm going to hand the story over to you because you were very closely involved in the UK US coalition intervention. No, I was, I was seconded to NATO, President Clinton asked Tony Blair if I could go and help NATO sort out their, their comms, because it did become kind of the propaganda side of things became very, very important.
40:55It was, I remember the guy in charge of the whole thing, Wes Clark, who later became a presidential candidate, remember, or a presidential nomination candidate. And he, I remember him saying that it was only when we sort of gripped the comms against the Milozovich, comms machine, that he felt that he was able to kind of get the military to focus on what it was that they were trying to do. And the reason why that's relevant to us happening today is that there I was as Tony Blair's comms guy, secondited NATO, and my opposite number doing the job for Milozovich was Alexander Vukic, who is now running the country.
41:35So there he ends up running his country and I end up doing a bloody podcast with Roy Stewart. With a boy, it is obviously affecting what went wrong. So I was also there then, I was, there's a look at that, I'd been posted to be the British representative in Montenegro, which is this country, obviously, between Cosfo Bosnia and Serbia. Yeah. And so I spent quite a lot of time in Cosfo. I had a K -4 pass, which was the Cosfo force pass. I remember going up to visit some of those Serbian Orthodox monasteries, which in those days was surrounded by Italian armoured vehicles with then 50 ,000 foreign soldiers on the ground.
42:10And the particular flashpoint was around these northern areas, around Mitrovica, where a Serbian population had been left behind in what was now an Albanian Cosfo dominated country. And a lot of the effort just just a fast forward over the last 24 years have been trying to resolve the status of those areas. And there have been repeated agreements, four agreements in fact put together by, often put together by the European Union or France and Germany, trying to resolve the tensions between Cosfo and Serbia, but to cut to the chase. They've never really worked. They never really worked. And what really became the cause of the real problems that we're now facing was license plates.
42:54So basically Serbs living in Cosfo want to continue to have old license plates, which don't really recognize the existence of a Republic of Cosfo and the Republic of Cosfo want them to drive around with Republic of Cosfo license plates. The thing you've jumped there is that in 2008, Cosfo declared it was independent and has essentially devoted its entire diplomatic policies of getting recognition. And it's almost at a hundred. It's almost half ways above half way now, 100 of the 193 United Nations countries recognize Cosfo, including us. And the United States and Europe, the people who don't, of course, are Russia, China, Serbia, most importantly.
43:31Yeah, and some, and I think there are still five European countries that don't, but they've done a pretty good job on that. But Vukic, President of Serbia has said that they never, ever will recognize it. And so you've had the plates thing, then we've talked before about the elections of of mayors in a in an election, which the Serbs in the North boycotted. So these Albanian mayors were elected on 4 % turnouts and that led to violence. And then this latest one is very, very hard to work out what's gone on. But essentially, three Serbs, there was a group of Serbs very heavily armed, engaged in a in a shootout with Cosvavar police officers, one Cosvavar police officer killed, three Serbs killed.
44:15And despite the Serb government saying this was some freelance guy, this kind of rather sinister mafia guy who was running the whole operation, nothing to do with us, Gav, they numbed the Lecester clad a national day of mourning for these three guys who'd been killed, which is what is make an added to which the, the arms that were discovered could only be state sponsored. States sponsored arms and the Serbs moved serious military units up to the border. So it feels to me as though Vukic was hoping to pull off sort of little green man Russian style paramilitary provocation inside northern Cosvow and then roll the army in to protect the population.
44:55So it feels like Northern Ireland's sort of 68, 69 feels like a moment at which you can see what's happening. There's an academic, I mean, Senator Link who said that people talk about black swans, these sort of unexpected occurrences. But what's happening here is more like a great big gray rhino that the violence that's coming is so predictable. It's like a two -ton rhino sort of snorting at you and charging towards you. It's been triggered basically and that here I'm going to take a sort of radical line here, which will be unpopular with some of the Europeans, the Americans. But basically there are two things going on.
45:29One of them is that it was held together by the European Union promising accession for Serbia. And so long as we catch thought that Serbia would get into the EU with all that that would mean in terms of freedom of movement and the economy, he held off the confrontation and Europe basically gave up on that. And Vukic concluded the whole thing was a sham. He was never going to get into the European Union. The second thing I think to be clear about is that it is Vukic not Alban Korti who's fault here. Alban Korti, you know, there's a real attempt by the Americans Europeans say, oh, blame on both sides and Korti is a bit radical and pushing to Alban Korti, who's the cost of her leader, is essentially just insisting on what has been agreed on these license plates four times in different agreements.
46:12Your point about Northern Ireland is relevant here because you now have a situation where both sides are refusing to believe that the other is actually in good faith. And I think that's why the Americans are Europeans. There are there are things that would agree that the Europeans appoint you to saying, Korti said he would do this, but then he hasn't. For example, a great autonomy for the Serb population living in the North and so forth. But I think you're right. And the other thing is that, you know, we can play in sometimes about the kind of inward looking nationalism of our media, but my god in Serbia is something else.
46:45And so at the moment, you know, Vukic is playing into a ramped up nationalist agenda, which is real within the population. It's not just being manufactured by the government. So one thing we often say on the podcast is that you need to look not at what people say in English, but what they say in their local language. So if you see Vukic being interviewed by Christian Ammanporn, CNN, we can share the link. He comes across as incredibly sort of reasonable holding up the rule of law. Nothing to see here. I'm all for peace. But when you read the the Serbian newspapers, you see something very different.
47:19So the pro -government tabloid, which is claims to be have the largest number of subscribers in Serbia, runs a headline on the front page, which is which means courteous is ethnically cleansing, Cosva of the Serbs. And then it says, Larshný premier tackles Varnog Kosova. So the fake premiere of the so -called Kosova was pomodz zapadni mentor with the help of his Western mentors, Sprovordný Tyho, Ethnicor, Chiszenje, Nasjag, Stanovista, Narkim. So is conspiring with Western mentors to ethnically cleanse our people from from Cosva. So when that's appearing in the local press, and you can see some outrageous comments by Vuchis's defense minister and by Vuchis himself, they're really whipping up to once going to be a brutal confrontation.
48:10So he's very good at charming when it suits him. He's charming the Americans, he's charming the Europeans as Vuchis. But when he's talking to his own people, it's all no surrender, no compromise, I will never accept Kosovo being independent. I met, I obviously had dealings with him of a non -speaking nature when we were running comms operations against each other, but I met him more recently when I was partly because of the work I was doing in Albania with Eddie Rama. And I had a quite a long one or one with Vukic. This was after, I don't know if you remember when the extraordinary incident with when Serbia were playing Albania at football and a drone flew in and dropped the Albanian flag and it was just all kicked off between the players and it became a massive sort of diplomatic incident.
48:59It was around that time and it was unfortunate away because he had a terrible cold, really bad cold. And as you know Rory, politices with colds, it's not a good look. But and he's got quite a sort of, he's a very tall guy and he's very imposing, but he's got quite, I think he's got quite a weak face and I think sometimes he has to exaggerate his strength in his rhetoric and with his actions and you're right, he does a very different stick for his domestic audience than what he does for the international audience. But I'll say to you, I think there was, I mentioned Eddie Rama there, Albania has been for the first time, I think, a little bit critical of the European Union.
49:39Yeah, well, your friend Eddie Rama strangely has been sort of charmed by Vukic and seems to be attacking the Cosfer Albanian. No, I don't think he's attacking them. I think he's not happy with the way that the European Union are doing this sort of, you know, there's equal blame on both sides because I think he's more with you that in terms of what happened, this attack by the Serbs, by this guy, Rudoic Chitch and his gang that has led to the current crisis, I think he feels that the European Union response has not taken sufficient regard of that. One of the things that we're seeing here is the sort of fantasy of all these populists, Vukic, Albania, etc.
50:21Which is the fantasy that Trump is going to come and save them. So Vukic got very close to Richard Grinnell who was the, who was Trump's special envoy for the region. And I think has very much since he's convinced Trump that Serbia is in the right and would want Trump to, he hopes Trump's going to come in a year, it's time to withdraw all the American troops. Well, Trump will probably say, well, Vukic is very, very tall and could he's quite small, therefore I'll probably back Vukic because he's, that's the kind of how his toddler mentality operates. No, it's really disturbing. So I guess there are two things.
50:51One is, is the European Union going to grow a backbone, recognize how dangerous this is. And secondly, is there any way of getting back to life again, the process to get Serbia back into the European Union because there is now a real national security argument. It's now like a whole, a terrible hold on the doughnut, which if we don't get some kind of reconciliation with Serbia will be a sort of Russian authoritarian populist proxy bang in the heart of Europe. Yeah. There's an interesting parallel to the work that you did in Ireland, which is the depth of the history of these people. So I was just looking at the individual biographies and there's been a great report again by my favorite people, the European stability institute on this, which we can share.
51:34But the president of Kosovo was driven from each of itsers a child. Albin Korti, the leader was imprisoned from 97 to 2001 by the Serbians. The foreign minister, Gervala had her father and brother murdered in Germany by Yugostav spies. And on the other side, the Serbian foreign minister, Datschic, was a spokesperson from Lasfetsch from 92 to 2000. And if you watch, there's an extraordinary moment in the security council where Datschic starts attacking this foreign minister, the Kosovo foreign minister, who's had her father and brother murdered and he starts screaming at the UN Security Council.
52:11Your hands are bloody, it's your fault and essentially starts blaming her father and brother for being sort of traitors and separatists. And then she turns around and screams back, you're a small, slobbered arm, a loss of itch. So there is a real kind of depth of history here, which is going to make it unbelievably difficult to reconcile unless the worst concentrates. And it will be tragic. I mean, nothing is more tragic than 20 years in Afghanistan where we go and get rid of the Taliban in 20 years later. We hand it back to the Taliban again, but it feels so we're about to do it again in Kosovo.
52:42Bosnian Kosovo were of course the successes. They were the things that made people proud of humanitarian intervention. They ended wars. They set up states. And despite all the grumbles, broadly speaking, the world is a better place for the interventions in Bosnian Kosovo, and it would have been without it. But it now looks like it's going to unravel through Western Vassalation and weakness. The only thing I would say to that is that the when there was this troop buildup pretty close to the board, again, way way too close for Kosovo's kind of security interests. And the Americans did step in and essentially have some pretty hard words with the Serbs.
53:20And Vukic came straight out and did a statement saying, it would be absurd for the how would that possibly help us that we were going to start a war there, etc. Now, on the one hand, we've heard all that before from other leaders, but this did feel to me like a quick word from the Americans led to a bit of a pullback. But in terms of the fundamentals, they are not in good shape. And I think it's something that we'll be coming back to again and again. Well, pretty depressing, but some very, very interesting stuff. It's an extraordinary story. And it's also an amazing place. I went there after the war because of course, once the once the Serbs had effectively had lost and were on their way home, I was then asked to go and help sort the sort of, you know, the comms going forward.
54:09And I spent a bit of time there, and it was, it was, it's a very beautiful part of the world. But what was incredible, I was there at the time when the Serbs were literally retreating. So they were coming back and we'd be driving along the road, and there'd be sort of truckloads coming the other way. And I mean, the hatreds, you felt it so powerful, every time one side passed the other, there were these almost sort of, you know, animalistic noises being sort of, you know, they'd stop fighting at this point, but there's still that you could feel the kind of absolute loathing and hatreds. And they're still there.
54:42And of course, this region up in the north is still very, very, it's more Serb and Albanian. And the Serbs in Belgrade want those people to feel, this is why the number plate thing is so kind of want them to feel that they're Serb not Kosovo because they don't and say they never will recognize Kosovo as an independent nation. It's very, very sad. And the, and as you say, it's a very, I mean, in some places, a very, very beautiful place with these amazing monuments. Other other bits are kind of sort of slightly bleak modern communist, but it's an extraordinary part of the world. And of course, it's on this, one of the reasons why it's so raw, of course, is that originally it was on the fort line between the Christians and the Ottoman Muslims, and the cause for this battling, cause for it was seen as a kind of existential fight.
55:28And it is still still remembered in that way. Anyway, thank you. And I, I don't think we're going to resolve it all now, but thank you for sticking with it and having a chance to talk about it. And see you tomorrow, question time. See you then. Bye bye.
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