178. Israel At War

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0:21Welcome to The Restless Politics with me, Alistair Campbell and me, Rory Stewart. Now, Rory, we've been trying for a couple of days now to get together and do something on what's been happening in Israel and Gaza. And we put out a question to listeners this morning saying, what would you like to ask us about what's happening in the Middle East right now? And I can tell you, the single most asked question was asking Rory for one of his explainers. Now, so take us from the beginning of time to where we are now in two minutes. Yeah, without getting in trouble from every side. Well, that is the problem.

0:58I've noticed that already. Twitter is the worst place in the world to debate this issue. I've discovered that, which is why I've stopped debating it on there. It's virtually impossible to say anything that is nuanced, that is not black and white about this situation and the truth is, as you know, and as we'll hear from you very, very shortly, you need a bit of nuance in this because it is so steeped in difficult history and very, very complicated. So why don't you just try and give us a bit of a, a bit of a, background? I'll give it a go. And with apologies to people because there's a lot of sensitivities here.

1:29So essentially going back three thousand years, state of Israel was dominated by a Jewish community and they were displaced just under two thousand years ago, basically by the Romans. And a large Jewish community is formed then in many places and places like Iraq and Yemen, also in centuries in Europe and in Spain and Portugal and many other places too. And then at the beginning of the 20th century, the end of the 19th, the beginning of the 20th century, there was the beginning of a Zionist movement pushing for a homeland for the Jewish people, driven by the fact that Jews had experienced appalling discrimination and brutal pogroms, murdered, murderous attacks on them over many, many hundreds of years, but mounting particularly in centuries in Europe in the late 19th century.

2:17The British got behind this with the Balfour Declaration about the time of the First World War and there was increasing Jewish movement back to the former state of Israel. But of course, during the nearly two thousand years, this had become very much a place dominated by Arab Muslim communities. So the Jews were moving back into a populated place and the British initially after the First World War set up a mandate where they were trying to balance the interests of Arabs and Jews, found themselves in the middle of an increasing civil war and the Brits wretched targets of terrorist attacks from both Arabs and Jews.

3:02And then of course, the defining horror of the Second World War, the Holocaust in which six million European Jews are killed and which absolutely demonstrates to the world the extremity of the threat that Jews face and the requirement for a Jewish homeland which then drives into large numbers of Jews moving to Palestine after the war and in 1948 led by David Ben Gurion, the setting up of the state of Israel, driven by actually an Israeli military assault that takes a lot of the territory previously held by Arab communities and involves many, many Arabs being displaced from their homes. And that state of Israel, that 1948 state is then recognized largely by the international community although not by many Palestinians.

3:51And that remains the situation until 1967 when it then faces a simultaneous attack by Egypt, Syria and belatedly Jordan. And on the 1967 war, Israel won a very, very rapid victory about six days. And it took a lot of territory which was outside the 1948 borders. So it took Gaza, which we're going to be talking about today. It took the West Bank which had previously been controlled by Jordan, Gaza had previously been controlled by Egypt. And just so we're clear to that, that is why when people talk about the occupied Palestinian territories, that is what they're talking about. Absolutely. When most people talk about the occupied Palestinian territories, they're talking about those bits that were taken by Israel after 1967.

4:36Now there's a detail here which is that there are also parts of the Palestinian movement who reject the original state of Israel and the 1948 borders. But broadly speaking, when people talk about the occupied Palestinian territories, they're talking about these areas. There was then another war which is important to us because it was the anniversary of that war that triggered these recent attacks almost exactly 50 years ago. A Yom Kippur war, whether it was another attack, which is rare again beat off but much more difficulty. Fast forward and in the 1990s when I'm coming into stuff that you began to connect with person in your professional life, there were then a series of peace talks particularly around Oslo and the conclusion of Oslo was that territories would be divided into categories A, B, and C.

5:22So there would be Palestinian territories, there would be territories under mixed control and C, which were going to be Israeli territories. And the idea was to push ahead with a two -state solution. A Palestinian authority emerged on the West Bank with its capital at Ramallah and in Gaza another form of Palestinian authority emerged. And the challenge there was that these territories are not contiguous. They didn't form a joined up country. In fact, increasingly because of Israeli settlers who've been putting houses and settlements in beyond the 1967 boundaries, it actually is a series of tiny enclaves, over 100 little enclaves divided by checkpoints and walls.

6:08Fast forward to 2004, 2005 and Israel withdraws from Gaza. And that's the first big move they actually remove a few thousand settlers who are there, forcefully remove a few thousand settlers and hand it over to Palestinian control. Not long after that happens a movement called Hamas, which is a much more radical Islamist group, much more strongly associated with terrorism, takes over the Gaza Strip, which is this bit that runs basically from Egypt along the coast along the edge of Israel. And the Palestinians are then divided between this Hamas controlled area, which is the Gaza Strip and the rest, which is controlled by the former PLO, the Fata government.

6:52Then there were interfereders, there were Israeli attacks, both fights in reprisal against the tax from Hamas, out of Gaza, reprisals about attacks from his Bala, which is another group, which is based in southern Lebanon. And fast forward to where we were about a week ago. And a week ago, Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, was on the record saying the Middle East had never been so peaceful. And the reason I think he thought that is that Israel had developed a special missile protection shield, which meant it was increasingly difficult for these Palestinian groups to fire either from his Bala al Hamas rockets into Israel and do damage.

7:33There hadn't been that number of attacks. And most of the focus in Israel, as we picked up on the part over the last few months, has actually been not about Palestine. It's been an internal Israeli fight between liberals and conservatives to do with challenging the way in which the Israeli government is moving in a populist direction, has brought in far -right people like a man called Smotrich, the finance minister, pushing to overturn the independent judiciary in Israel. And that was broadly the situation when on early Saturday morning, the attack started. Well, I thought it was a very, very good explainer.

8:07And there will doubtless be some people who will object to some exclusions and some inclusions. And I'm afraid that's the nature of what we're talking about. Look, I don't want to ventriloquize for people. But broadly speaking, if you want to see the view of I suppose a pretty middle of the road Palestinian politician, there is a great interview, which you'll share in the links, which has just been done on CNN, nine minute interview, in which a fatar politician gives his views on the situation. But broadly speaking, from the Palestinian point of view, they would say, yes, there's been a terrorist attack.

8:43And most of them would say they would not in any way condone the killing of civilians. What would then happen is they would then say, you need to understand that Gaza is from their point of view, a prison camp with really no ability from people to go in and out. It's a humanitarian disaster where people lack basic supplies. And that at the root of this violence is an Israeli occupation, which Palestinians will then explain them. You'll see it better if you're interested in this interview on CNN explains involved breaking territory into tiny enclaves, checkpoints, and what they experience as an apartheid state.

9:18And they called it an apartheid state because they feel that they are not being given full civil and democratic rights. And if they were given full civil and democratic rights, the situation would be very different. That's a Palestinian point of view. It's a really point of view. There are many Israeli points of view, but they would start by saying, listen, understand that these are very serious enemies out there that Hamas back in the 1990s had a founding charter dedicated to the complete elimination of the state of Israel. States like Iran were committed to the elimination state of Israel that the 67 war in the Yom Kippur war were designed basically to wipe them off the face of the map that they feel that they have been marginalized and attacked unfairly at United Nations forums for decades while other countries like China and Zimbabwe and Cuba haven't been attacked in the same way.

10:05They feel it's an existential threat. They would emphasize that the Israeli army warned civilians before it attacks buildings. They will emphasize, and again, there are many different views on this 1967 territory, but some Israelis would say the territory they took is essential for protection of the state of Israel that the Golan Heights, for example, were artillery positions from which the Syrians reigned rockets down on them. And that Israel's right to defend itself involves being very realistic about the significant threat that Palestinians pose. So somewhere there are those two positions and there will be 500 other positions we look forward to the conversation.

10:44We had lots and lots of questions, as I say, but one of them was about good books to read. And there was actually a brilliant play about the Oslo Accords. And I think from memory it was called Oslo. It was published as a book. It's worth getting hold of that. Absolutely amazing play. And it's one of those plays that you can read and get a sense of the drama. And just before we go onto what's happening now, coincidentally, and I didn't know that Jake Sullivan has said that. That is pretty remarkable. And just before these attacks, literally the day before the latest attacks by Hamas, which have been bigger and more violent and more deadly than anything we've seen from them before, and that anything these Israelis have endured before, which is why they're calling it 911 plus Pearl Harbor in one.

11:30But our good friend, the new European, had a five page spread in last week's paper called 18 days that shook the world about the Yom Kippur War that you mentioned. And I think you're right that that was one of the key moments in the history. And I just want to read sections of it because it is so partly because it's so dramatic, it also gives you an indication of how quickly these things can escalate to almost unimaginable heights or depths, depending how you're looking at it. Because this almost frankly calls World War Three and almost caused Israel to go nuclear. So if I just give you this section, so this is a use said earlier, Syria and Egypt have attacked.

12:15At the start of the war, the US and USSR had requested support from the respective allies. On the go land front, Syrian forces got direct support from Soviet military personnel. It was estimated around 20 with killed in action. The Americans were initially reluctant to come to Israel's aid. Then during the night of October 8 to 9, so that's exactly today as we were recording. 50 years ago, after being told by her defense minister, Moshe Diane, that Israel was facing defeat, the prime minister, Golda Mayor, authorized the assembly of 13 tactical nuclear weapons. The reading of these weapons was done overtly as a signal to the United States.

12:52Then Nixon's in the middle of all sorts of scandal, Kissinger's dealing with this. Here's an interesting situation in Europe. With the exception of Portugal, the Netherlands and military rule Greece, European nations refused to even allow US planes carrying supplies for Israel to refuel their bases. The Arab states in response to US intervention cut oil supplies and threatened embargoes leading to the 1973 energy crisis. If I go right to the end, when you said there, or about people feeling that this was never been safer and that Israel felt secure, when there finally was a ceasefire after this, after the Omkipur War, which went on for 18 days, there was little rejoicing in Israel.

13:38The failure to foresee the attack was the greatest failure in Israeli history. One analyst blamed arrogance, lack of understanding of the abundant intelligence and disregard for the enemy. The ministry historian John Hughes Wilson described it as a classic example of confusing political aspirations with hard facts. For good or ill, Israel would never make the same mistakes again. Gosh. And here again, to remind people of what actually happened. So 6 .30 in the morning, Hamas out of Gaza, which is this coastal strip, a joining Egypt, perhaps 5 ,000 rockets. The Israeli is saying 2 ,500 rockets.

14:18Then about an hour later, they tore through the barriers, through the fences that divide Gaza from Israel. Some coming in from Boat, one person coming in from air, bulldozers ripping down the areas crossing. And simultaneously drove, in some cases, 20 -30 kilometers into Israel and began the most violent series of terrorist attacks. Some of them were directed against military targets. So you'll see images of commanders, Israeli commanders being one of them, and I think in his box of shorts being kidnapped and taken into a car, tanks being seized. Gaza, divisional headquarters being stormed and the Zikim base.

14:59So you know, a big military frontal attack. But also the real horror at the center of things, which people will have focused on, which was that there was a festival taking place. And people have been dancing up all night, and 7 .30 in the morning, sun was rising, just come to the end of the festival. And into the middle of the final stages came a group of terrorists on bikes and trucks and began opening fire on the crowd. Killed something like, it's difficult to know, 250, 260 people. And then went back across the border, taking over 160 hostages. And some of the fighters remained on the ground, continued to fight, holding police stations and in border towns.

15:42The Israeli military then mounted a counter strike, which is probably killed about 400 people. The thing to say, obviously, before we go any further on this is that Hamas is a terrorist organization. Very clear terrorist organization. This isn't the first time they've done this. Some people are saying, you know, why did they hit women and children? The truth matter is that Hamas has been behind indiscriminate suicide bomb attacks. They had an explicit policy of targeting civilians since the mid 1990s. Recognize the terrorist organization by the U, by the US. And actually much more recently by the UK 2022, I think, in Australia 2023.

16:20But much of the rest of the world does not recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization. They treat them as the legitimate government because they're the elected government in the Gaza Strip over the year. I think what we're seeing is beyond anything that we've seen, that the Israeli people have seen. As you say, within the Palestinian context, there has been a lot of bloodshed. There's been a lot of anger. It's been building. I do think that once this thing hopefully comes down, hopefully settles down, though I think it could be, I think this could be a long, long, long time. But there are some massive questions for the Israelis.

17:00They have perhaps the most vaunted intelligence agency in the world. They really will be asking themselves some very, very hard questions as to how this happened. Because when you watch the scenes that you described there with the fences being attacked, with people arriving on hang gliders, with the levels of armory that were available, it seems to me remarkable that the Israelis literally did not seem to have a whiff of this. Or if they did, they were certainly not very well prepared. And I think what's happening now, quite rightly, there's been massive widespread condemnation, a little bit like Ukraine, though we should be careful not to imagine that it's universal.

17:44I think we saw in the debate at the United Nations last night that the straight divide in that body was on display again. But generally a sense of absolute outrage and condemnation and support certainly in most of the countries that were most of our listeners are, support for Israel's rights to defend itself. But now slightly into unknown territory, because the hostages, which we should take of civilian hostages, taking many hostages in this situation, a war crime, that does complicate things further. A lot of talk already about whether there will be a ground offensive by Israel into Gaza, which is one of the most densely populated places on earth, by the way.

18:27Two million people in a strip, roughly 25 miles long, very narrow strip of land. So the fear that there must be in that place will be horrendous. And meanwhile, Jews around the world, I mean this is, this was brought home to me in the very calm and peaceful setting of my morning, swim this morning, talking to some Jewish people who are regular swimmers there, who are feeling that sense of fear, anxiety, real concern and dread about what's happening, and not least because they know people there. Yeah, and with reason also, not just because the horror coming out of Israel, but also because an Egyptian policeman opened fire and killed two Israeli tourists.

19:12A little bit on Gaza. So Hamas is something that emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood and different to the PLN Fatih. It was from its beginning an Islamist organization, very much sort of, I'm not, I mean, it's a misleading way to put it, but it's in the broad tradition of the Muslim Brotherhood and even the Taliban. It's a group that very much prides itself on religion. It has very conservative social codes, but it's not imposing them entirely. I mean, there's been some examples of it, but it's not legally imposing them on the population there. Their brand was being cleaner, less corrupt than the previous government, but for the moment, they've taken over, they have faced a blockade.

19:52So although Israel withdrew from Gaza, it controls six out of the seven of the border crossings. It controls all the air access and sea access to Gaza. It provides all the electricity, all the water supply, all the telecommunications for Gaza, and the Israeli Army reserves the right to enter Gaza whenever it feels it has a security reason to do so. The trade from Gaza, the economy of Gaza really collapsed after these placades were put in place because people didn't want to do business with a terrorist group. It's kept afloat with support from, in different ways, Turkey, Qatar and Iran, Iran putting the support more into the military attacks.

20:32Qatar are very focused on humanitarian support for people. It's, I think, 160th poorest country in the world now in GDP per capita, real shortage of water supply, sewerage. And one of the questions going forward is, I suppose two questions. One of them is your point about the potential Israeli response inside Gaza because it's not going to be possible for Israel as it were to reoccupy Gaza. If you think about the fighting Mosul where the Iraqi army tried to retake Mosul from the Islamic state, that was a multi -year operation that involved destroying Mosul City. And I don't think we should be expecting Israel to be attempting to try to do house -to -house fighting in a place of 2 .2 million people.

21:17But there's going to be a lot of pressure now being put by Israel on countries to cease all forms of support for Gaza. But that, of course, will also mean that you're on this knife edge between providing support, development support, which keeps the Hamas government alive, but also preventing a humanitarian catastrophe. So Qatar is a very odd example of this. Qatar is criticized often by Israeli politicians for providing support to Gaza. But then often says that behind closed doors, they're encouraged to continue to provide support to Gaza by factions within Israeli government because they don't want to humanitarian crisis there.

21:52Okay, Rory, well, we've got lots, lots more to talk about in this area. So let's just take a quick break.

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23:11On the point of the humanitarian crisis, first of all, when the Israelis are saying to the people in Gaza, they're essentially advising them to move out. It's very, very hard to know where they go in such a densely populated place where they can't come and go freely. And what I find really difficult in this whole conversation is, and this is, I think we talk a lot on the podcast generally about how we try and do this thing about disagreeing agreeably. Honestly, watching the debate unfold, particularly on social media, but also on some of the television stations are being sort of trawling through.

23:52It's virtually impossible to have this debate without people getting very, very quickly into polarised spaces. And I think that at the moment, when you see, and I'm not criticising this at all, I can see, as per 9 -11, the desire for countries like the UK, the US, Germany, to signal solidarity. And so this thing of lighting up public buildings with the Israeli flag and so forth. And that's fine for now. But I think that at some point, one of the best contributions to this debate I saw was when we were waiting for Joe Biden's address to the American people the other night, Alistair Bert, former Foreign Office Minister, former Middle East Minister, one of your colleagues, was filling in for, when I say filling in, he was being interviewed at the time when just before Biden was coming on.

24:41So Alistair Bert asked this question, to us, why has so little international attention been paid to resolving issues between Israel and the Palestinians over the last couple of years, when it was clear that tensions were steadily rising. And there were many warnings that something very bad was going to happen. And I think that when you were talking about that period, when Clinton was in charge, and yes, Arif Atten, Rabin, who were meeting at the White House, and it was that sense of progress, there was a real focus by large parts of the international community on this as being, not just the central issue in the Middle East, but one of the central issues anywhere in the world.

25:18The Middle East in our public debate in recent years has become about some of these other countries you've been talking about, the ones with the oil, the ones with money, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, the focus on the Middle East and the Israel Palestine question has been negligible from a time when it used to be one of the most dominant issues of global debate. Yeah, I think a lot of things changed in it. So the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, who'd been instrumental in bringing together the also court. So this very famous Israeli general, a national hero who made a very radical step to try to reach out towards peace with Palestinians and was then assassinated by a extreme extremist Jewish nationalist who was against him, then led to a period where the Israeli left largely vanished and a lot of the politics we've been talking about in Israel reflects the fact that the Palestinian supporting two states solution supporting Israeli left largely lost confidence partly because of that partly because they felt that Palestinians weren't making the progress that they were hoping for partly because the Palestinian authority has proved to be very useful to some corrupt and has lost a lot of support.

26:30But it's also that as you say, as Israel has become economically more and more powerful and Saudi and UAE and others have developed confidence, Trump drove through the Abraham Accords which effectively normalize relations between Israel and some of the key Gulf states, meaning that Palestinians had very much been marginalized and definitely as Al -Sterbert says, you know, when I was in Jordan, there was a palpable sense that people felt it no longer was anything that anyone was concentrating on. And the two state solution felt increasingly implausible. It's more and more difficult to imagine that it would ever happen.