200. The Israeli settler movement, Ukraine blockaded, and Putin's perpetual power

26:55So I never quite forgave the trio of them for doing that. But I think it's a sign of the way in which so many people in Parliament are behaving at the moment. I mean, they are extraordinary about stabbing each other back. Regardless of the rights or wrongs of the issue, there's a difference between quietly stepping down and going out on all the Sunday shows, trashing the Prime Minister. And also he's got this sort of smugness that I mean I just don't know where he comes from because the only time I've ever actually sort of met him properly was I think he was the 2019 election and we were on a panel together or something.

27:32And I can just remember think being overwhelmingly unimpressed by he had no presence. He had no I had no sense of him having a kind of world view. He was just like a sort of talking robot and he's now become this sort of I could even see that he sort of styled himself. If you saw when he was walking down the street the other day with his sort of he had a sort of blue jump on and genius and I could tell he sort of said to his wife or whoever's advising him, I think I need to look a bit sort of less stuffy than normal. I think I'll put on a jumper and jeans and he sort of walked out the street sort of forcing himself for the cameras to treat you.

28:07You could see and he said he's saying I must walk normally. I must walk normally. The problem I mean I so I know Robert Generick recently well and I knew him before he was an MP. He entertained me when he was the chairman of his local association when I was speaking in his constituency before the election. So he sort of come up through that route. Yeah he'd been active in his local party politics although he had a job before before parliament too. But one of the reasons it's difficult I find psychological criticising he's very amiable and actually it's a weird thing about Swelabravenman too. I'm horrified by what she doesn't public but in person whenever you meet her she's very sort of friendly and nice and modest.

28:45So I feel it's an interesting thing. I think what Rob Generick's done is awful but I equally I know that when he's listening to this he'll feel really hurt. You know I I entertain Roy in my house. I've always been very nice to him. Why is he kicking me on on air? I've got a talking of kicking on air. I must give a shout out to Nick Robinson, BBC. He didn't interview with Swelabravenman which I spent most of the time saying for God's sake put the boot in. For God's sake we put the boot in. And anyway he was just he sort of let her speak and then at the end he did this he did this thing where he bases look isn't the truth that you come on here and you're all nice and immolient but the truth is you go around it's all about you.

29:22You spread hate. You're vile to your boss. I mean he really really really really really went for him. I think she was quite taken aback. No so I find the generic thing very very confusing but I think what I find more confusing is the fact that Rissi Sunak has I think made a terrible mistake of making this such a massive issue. Even if they get a plane off to Rwanda and I know they'll do the whole performative thing but it's going to be what a few dozen people. The figures for a asylum within the whole net migration picture are minuscule and so he's not putting the energy into tackling the things that really really really make this difficult and he's putting all his capital into this.

30:03Yeah well so the deal is that the just basic facts the government wants to move people who come over particularly people come over and boats claiming asylum in Britain wants to move them to Rwanda and argues that Rwanda country in Africa with about 10 million people is a safe third country and it began this commitment back in the spring of 2022 with Boris Johnson tried to put people on the planes to Rwanda was blocked by the courts and in a final ruling of the Supreme Court in November the Supreme Court says something quite interesting. What they said is there's no problem in theory with the idea that you can have a safe third country right that the point is that people need to be safe and provided they are not at risk of deaths, torture, persecution, a third country is fine.

30:57The principles find it. The principles find it but they had significant problems in practice with Rwanda. They even said that they think Rwanda was making a good faith effort to look after people but they said that actually the record was worrying and the record least because of the deal they had in the past with Israel. Correct. So they'd been a deal with Israel and in that deal up to 2018 they the court found that people who'd been resetful by Israel and Rwanda had then been secretly shipped back to the countries in which they came so they were at significant age. So courts said basically we can imagine a world in which Rwanda can be safe but it's going to take very significant capacity building to build up the skills their officials make sure they're assigned procedures right and basically make sure that you can be confident that people arrive in Rwanda properly treating Rwanda and not sent back to their own homes.

31:43The government then tried to respond to this by doing two things in parallel. James Clevverly, the former Foreign Secretary now himself, Secretary, Flute Rwanda and signed a treaty and actually that's the good bit of the story. He signed quite a good treaty in which very complicated conversations with Rwanda Rwanda standing up for itself saying it wants to follow international law. It doesn't want to break the refugee convention and it doesn't want to give up on its own sovereignty. Agreed a series of panels and courts which would provide oversight to reassure people and potentially reassure the Supreme Court that people arrive in Rwanda be properly dealt with.

32:16It was also, it was the Rwandans who insisted on this point that Generic is particularly angry about because that's the bit that he's basically saying well it means that we're losing sovereignty to them essentially because they've made an insistence about one of the factors in the treaty. Rwanda making two big points. One is that they were not prepared to accept a sort of British court making decisions over Rwanda law. What they have accepted is an appeal court which in Rwanda law which is a mixed court which can include a British judge, Commonwealth judges and Rwandan judges but they want to make sure that Rwanda has its own sovereignty here.

32:51And the second point is they want to be consistent with the refugee convention, European Convention on Human Rights and this kind of stuff. So they basically worry that Britain is less concerned about international law than Rwanda? Exactly. They're very keen to say they care about international law and their suffering. So this treaty was signed and there was a reasonable chance that you could then go back to the Supreme Court and make the legal argument in the Supreme Court that with all the package of measures that Britain brought in and they basically agreed that Rwanda will not be sent back to Rwanda that other people being sent back to Rwanda will be carefully looked after that even if they don't get assigned them they'll get permanent residents that the UK will pay for them for five years etc etc.

33:30But instead of doing that the government's done the second thing which is much much more controversial which is that they've passed the law saying that Rwanda is safe. So Lord Garnier, X -Tori MP, he advises the one nation caucus that we talked about and he has said this bill is nonsense is comparable with the ruling that all dogs are cows. So it's not wrong. You can't just sort of have a treaty that says this country is now safe and no court can ever challenge that. So the complication here is that you guys did it in 2004. So you declared in the Asylum and Immigration Act 2004 that European countries were safe.

34:14So Parliament can declare or has in the past declared the country safe. The difference. European Union fellow states. But yeah the difference. That's a bit different. No less Parliament declared they were safe. The difference here is that their declaring Rwanda safe after the Supreme Court has ruled that they're not safe without any change of evidence. Right so they are departing from the Supreme Court's judgment to the facts. Now they're arguing the treaty which I just talked about has changed the facts but the normal way to deal with that would be to go back to the court and make the legal argument to the court.

34:44The effect of this bill if it passes and it's going to pass this evening. If it passes it passes this evening would be to say that British courts can no longer block flights generically. They will be able to hear individual cases but they won't be able to delay the entire flight while they hear individual cases. And that's a bit generic so it's got to go. Absolutely and the government believes 1995 percent of these cases could be heard in a few days. But the government still wants to defend very strongly and this is what's annoying generic and this is vital to get over why the Tory right is completely wrong on this in every way.

35:20The government bill goes further than I and many lawyers would like but at least it makes sure that if you were in a late stage pregnancy you wouldn't be put on a plane. If you had throat cancer you wouldn't be put on a plane. If you were under threat from the run of government you wouldn't be put on the plane. Generic and the right of the Tory party is basically saying that everybody should just be sent out and care at all about any exceptions and the individual cases. If you was if you was still an MP would you vote for it? I suspect I'd abstain. I suspect I'd abstain. Show real leadership. Exactly.

35:52That's right. Do what we did at a noble abstention. Right. But the consequence of an abstention would be to contribute towards a soon 90 feet. So I think I think the bigger issue here though is this whole question about which Germany is looking at as well and the Netherlands are looking at as well which is dealing with these illegal cross -stimulated trainings. So the crossings of the channel are nothing like as horrifying and disturbing as well as happening in the Mediterranean. Mediterranean it's literally lethal well over 2 ,400 died this year across the Mediterranean. So Germany is looking very closely at this because they would like to have agreements in place like the British agreement with Rwanda and there's a very interesting proposal again from my favourite group the ESI which is suggesting that actually Germany and France should offer to take everybody who crosses the channel back and in return Britain will agree this is partly what Labour's been talking about taking a certain number of asylum seekers from Europe every year but also that this will then allow Germany to use the treaty with Rwanda to move some of the people crossing the Mediterranean to Rwanda.

36:59The argument being here that what should be happening is we should be taking asylum seekers on the basis of need thinking about how and then it should be accommodated take them from the countries themselves that's something that we've been talking about in previous interviews. In fact actually it was something we were talking about with the ex Belgian Prime Minister. Yeah, if I've started shortly coming out on a meeting where he said it's ridiculous that we can't take people who are persecuted from the countries in which their persecuted female judges from Afghanistan rather than waiting them to cross deadly crossing Mediterranean.

37:29So a lot is relying on this and many European countries are very frustrated that they feel that the Conservative government was almost there with the treaty with Rwanda but they're horrified that they've pushed so far and trying to declare the country's safe through law. Yeah, I mean I think they're going to struggle even if they get the vote through I think they're going to struggle and it feels to me like the politics of this within the Conservative Party I've just become so vicious. I know you don't mind me talking about my friendship with Alan Clark but I remember he once phoning me up and saying you're absolutely home and dry for a decade.

38:08So why does this because all the truth is we fucking hate each other far more than we hate you. I think that sort of feels like that's where it's at. And also the sort of the kind of the same people I mean Francois Duncan Smith, Bill Cash, the same people that we saw endlessly during the Brexit debate and this pomposity of the Star Chamber is reported and the Star Chamber is decided that this is I mean they just to just explain to us the Star Chamber is all this group of right wing MPs sitting around doing a legal analysis and trying to prove that the government's bill isn't tough enough to achieve what they want to know.

38:48Yeah, yeah. Well we haven't really covered the Covid inquiry but he's hypnotic soon. Do you know when the thing is really important in politics is the voice and he's got this suppressed pettulence all the time and he couldn't do it with the judge or the QC but he's sort of as I switched off after half an hour I just couldn't couldn't stay with it. Right well should we take a break? Take a break.

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41:27Welcome back to the rest of politics with me Rory Stewart and me Alex Campbell. And Rory I think we should urge all of our listeners who have not so far done so to listen to the latest leading interview with Angela Rainer. I mean I thought I knew Angela Rainer quite well but sitting in the studio with her hearing her talk about her childhood and how she's become the person that she now is was pretty amazing. It was unbelievable. I mean if people do please listen to it. I mean it's it's extraordinary. So Angela Rainer as people who've listened to it will find out and hopefully many more of you will listen to it.

42:05I grew up in a family where her mother was one of 12. Her mother couldn't read or write. She was essentially a carer for her mother from a very very early age six. And I mean she really grew up in the most extreme form of deprivation and poverty imaginable in Britain. Left school at 16 with not a single GCSE. And is unbelievable. I mean she's very very bright. She's very tough. She's very thoughtful. I mean it sort of left me still with this question which I guess you know given that we're all told to work hard at school because it's really important for our life. You know what the secret of this is and she very correctly I think and modestly says a lot of it is lucky.

42:47She was lucky but she's also obviously a very very remarkable person. I also noticed that how much more fluent she's become. There wasn't a single question that she flinched from whether it's policy whether it was personal whether it was political. I think she could be a massive asset in the campaign for Labour and in government actually. And I think it used to be such an amazing aspirational message to say that you can come from a background that honestly is like anybody who's ever seen shameless it sort of feels like that. Yeah that kind of does and she's amazingly sort of frank about it and also hopefully somebody who will really stand up for that section of society who've been shamefully neglected by so many different parties over time because the sort of poorest I don't know half a million people in this country often don't vote aren't courted by either the Conservative Labour Party so somebody's speaking up for them will be huge important.

43:44Yeah I think Shorstar Rory was a very very very good very good party of austerity. Very good case for Shorstar she definitely did and how it transformed her ability to remember she's extraordinary she said she was never hugged once by her mother and she had to be taught by Shorstar to hug her grandchildren. So Ukraine might do on a start. Well I think the first thing is of course the obvious which is when a collecting Ukraine because we're talking a lot about Israel Gaza and Putin is feeling pretty pleased for themselves. He's now attempting assaults along the entire front line this massive front line between the Russian and Ukraine he's got 350 ,000 soldiers mobilized and Ukraine was supposed to break through as we've said in a counteroffensive this year it didn't instead it feels very much like I don't almost say the first world war trench trenches mines.

44:37There was a lot of talk about using tens of thousands of small drones to try to break through but it really does seem stuck and of course Ukraine is deeply dependent on money coming in particularly money from the US which provides 10 times as much as the nearest next nearest country and there's more than 50 billion dollars supposed to be coming from Biden that's frozen but the US population is increasingly skeptical particularly Republican voters overwhelming majority of Republican voters think too much money is going to Ukraine now. Trump clearly signaling that if he comes in it's going to give up on supporting Ukraine entirely so Putin's hang on for that.

45:16Interesting that Zelensky went to Milay's inauguration and made a big big show of support I don't know whether that was sort of saying I need the populist right as well. Very interesting isn't it you would have thought of all your priorities I mean Argentina is not a huge economy Milay is a pretty controversial man he's the man we've been talking about last three weeks with a with a wig and clone dogs and who calls the Pope a jackass. He had on the Argentine sash to the president whereas he had the five dogs pictures put onto the sash and they're actually because they're cloned they're actually one dog and they're like dolly the sheep.

45:54Oh they're all the same. Yeah they're all one dog but he knows which is different but I thought that was interesting that he went there he's going to see Biden. Biden really is holding out on very very firm positions some considerable cost to himself politically both on Israel. One of the people I talked to in Biden's team said that you know you've got to understand he really believes this. He's as determined as Netanyahu is that Hamas have to be defeated but he's paying a price on that politically and I think on Ukraine as you say because the Republican right has become very very iffy about the money.

46:29So there's there he is on that and then you've got you've also been looking at this situation with Poland and Ukraine and this blockade. Yeah so since November the 6th there have been these big blockades done by Polish truck drivers on the Ukrainian border and now it's happening with Slovakian and Hungarian truck drivers joining. So there are 2950 trucks stuck on the Ukrainian border and about 650 Slovakian 750 hungry. This is a very big problem. I mean some of those trucks have been sitting there for many many weeks. Why they're there? They're there because at the beginning of the war the EU said that Ukrainian drivers could come into Europe without having to have a special permit so they don't have to abide by European working time directives or any of the rules that other truck drivers have to abide by and basically they're undercutting Polish truck drivers.

47:18I was not about getting gray now to or was it was it just to help you get getting it was about two things I think it's about getting things in and out and also helping the Ukrainian economy and this is significant the Ukraine economy. These delays at the border have probably knocked 1 % off Ukraine's GDP at a time when it's already in the most horrible economic term. So it seems mad on the other hand to pay credit to the Poles they were the first country to open their arms. They took in million over a million Ukrainian refugees. They were the first country to back Ukraine but it's becoming a big big issue because lots of Polish truck drivers feel that their incomes and their jobs and their livelihoods are under threat and nobody's selling up them.

47:57It's very resolvable either you could return to a permitting situation which is probably too complicated but you could certainly provide compensation for the Polish check. So back in Hungarian truck drivers. And the hungry of course there you've got Orban. He's the one who seems to be foremost in trying to block the 50 billion euros that the European Union is set to contribute towards Ukraine. Almost using it as a pawn in this game where the European Union are blocking funding to him because of some of these breaches of rule of law provisions. Absolutely and this also leads into a much much bigger question which is the question about European Union accession.

48:40So Ukraine is now a moldover lined up to be counted at states for the EU and that's a very big issue for the EU because the people who supported Syria is absolutely critical for defending Ukraine and for the future geosucuity of Europe. But caught up in this are also the Balkan countries, Serbia, Kosovo who are also waiting for accession to the EU. Bosnia. Bosnia. Bosnia. Bosnia. Bosnia. Bosnia. Bosnia. Bosnia. Bosnia. All of which are at different stages. Now Orban is currently blocking almost all of these things and he's really whipping up in blocking North Macedonia and Kosovo. The idea that these are corrupt countries and a lot of the far right in European elections are going to pretty soon get on to this.

49:20So here is a proposal to solve this issue which we're going to try to push through the European capitals. These countries should all be allowed to come into the single market. So the single market is joining Europe in its freedoms so that allows freedom of trade, particularly important freedom of movement of people puts you into the economic integration but it doesn't bring you into the political institutions. You don't get involved in conversations about a European Parliament, Commission, you don't get involved in conversations about a joint European army. It's a position that Norway sent not in the European Union but in the single market and it actually also allows you to make trade deals around the world.

50:00So it's a very very good position to be in in terms of accessing this enormous market. The only thing that made it controversial in Britain is that it allows the European Union immigration and freedom of people back in front of the world. But you see I think that's where they are. You say this would be sort of way of countering the hard right. I think they would take that as a pretty big campaign issue for them. You know what we're bringing all these Albanians and Moldovaans and Georgians in. You mean across Europe? Yeah. So it's not just in Britain. Yeah. So I can see it being particularly quite difficult.

50:33But I like the big bold. I like the boldness of it. Big bold idea. Thank you. Yeah. So given the four freedoms, freedom movement of people and all this stuff, bring them in the single market the same way that Norway did, make sure they meet the single market rules and that way you can offer a deal that works for Ukraine, work Moldova, but also works for the market. Do you just sort of bypass all the normally negotiations before entering the single market? No, no, you need the normal single market negotiations but that is an easier path to go on than full EU membership and it will keep the momentum going, keep those countries engaged, achieve some of the geostrategic objectives and then park for later the question of full membership.

51:08Because I think if you push for full membership now, the far right in Europe will derail everything and these countries will end up. And as far as the rest of this politics diplomatic initiative, would the United Kingdom be invited to do the same? At the same time. Well, yeah, it's a very interesting thing. I mean, if the number of countries in the single market outside the European Union grows from Norway to quite a large number, then there's a very natural place for a country like United Kingdom to redock. Very good, very good. Just on the American politics of this, a poll asking people whether they support what the financial commitment America is making on Ukraine, 48 % think America is spending too much, 27 % about right, 11 % not enough, Republicans, 65 % too much, 52 % of independence, too much, 32 % of Democrats too much.

51:59So it's become a sort of left right thing, which again is not going to help the Democrats keep Trump at bay. Now, sort of you're sticking a little bit with Putin. He had a rare trip outside of Russia, went to Saudi and the Emirates, wasn't arrested for his alleged war crime. Because they're not signatures to the international protocol, but it's pretty controversial. So Mohammed bin Zayet, who's the dominant figure in UAE, referred to him as my dear friend, President Putin gave him a 21 gun salute. I mean, it's pretty extreme. Mohammed bin Zayet, the effect of ridder of Saudi Arabia. He saw Putin when there was talk at the same time, he should have been seeing Suna here, which Ian Duncan Smith, that great diplomat, said was a snob.

52:54Well, it's true that actually, Mohammed bin Zayet, foreign trips are notoriously unreliable. He keeps saying he's going to get an airplane to Britain and then he reschedules about every two weeks. He was all supposed to be flying to Moscow, one of the reasons that Putin went there is that he cancelled his trip to Moscow. He also cancelled his trip to the Jordanian Crown Prince's wedding, where he was supposed to turn up. So I think, Mohammed bin Zayet, obviously, doesn't quite like leaving Saudi Arabia. And meanwhile, COP, the conference of the parties, trying to save the planet, the future of the planet, it seems that Saudi, to a lesser extent, Russia, China, but certainly Saudi, to get a lot of the blame for making a deal at the moment look like he's impossible, because they won't agree to phasing out fossil fuels.

53:37It's had a phasing facing down, yeah. And of course, we got that signal, then, we from the present of the COP, from UAE, that he was against, that facing out language. Well, these countries, their entire economies are dependent on fossil fuels, they're sort of 18, 90 % of their revenue comes from fossil fuels. So why did, why did, won't we talk to Cristiano Friadas, for example? She seemed to think this was all going to be fine, and it would lead to some sort of conclusion, but they're all now very, very depressed. I was wondering as well whether we keep saying sports and politics shouldn't mix, but you've got this situation now where the Saudis are going to be hosting the World Cup at a time when they appear to be making moves that suggest the world might not be here.

54:19Apparently they were the only ones to bid. How on earth is it possible that they're the only ones to bid? Why does nobody want to host the World Cup? Well, you've got a situation at the moment with regard to the Commonwealth Games where there are no bits, they're all pulled out. Because these things are too expensive and complicated. Well, cost, buggeration. I don't know, I think there's, I think that where we were certainly when we were going for London 2012, you were initially reluctant, weren't you? Exactly, because we just do this wonderful on leading with Cebuco. Exactly. We should tell people about it.

54:48We've had lots of individuals. We've done some of the Andrew Rainer out this week, got Tim Peake coming out soon, really good Cebuco. And Gifah Hofstad, I've got to say, I saw he was brilliant, and he's so good. He's going to get up a lot of the right dose. The Peltrum Primacy, yes, yes, exactly. The more my end of the listeners may get more water. So just to finish and Putin's now announced as we imagine that he's running on the election. So he's... Did you win? Well, he's almost certain, not just to win, but to be in office now until 2030. He's going to be longer than the Stalin? Yeah, longer than anyone since I think Catherine the Grace or something.

55:25Came in in 1999. So it's a long old period, 31 years at the helm is a long period. That was the sort of, I was my first posting as a diplomat, was an Indonesian where Suharto had done 32 years, but that's really getting towards the city. That's the big authority. I watched the announcement, and he did it the same as the did it the last time, where he's at an event, and somebody, remember the public asks, will you be thinking about standing again in the next election? And he sort of gives the impression he's being dragged kicking, he's going, oh, God, if I have to do it again. Is that the idea that thought I wasn't going to do that?

56:02I know. But I think now the state of the world and so forth, and then they had a, they had a a few soldiers there and the mother of somebody being killed in Ukraine. I mean, the staging. And I don't know, do people, do Russian people look at it and just think, well, there's nothing we do about it and move on? Well, he's got, it looks like reasonably reliable, independent polls, that he's got nearly 58 % support. And I think it's a more extreme version of what we're seeing with Erdogan in Turkey, which is that there is a section of Russian and Turkish societies that are never going to vote for these men, more liberal, more progressive people are horrified by them, but they don't care about that section of society.

56:42They have a base that they're going to mobilize and and that base will keep voting for. Yeah, and most of his serious opponents are either dead or in jail. We mentioned Erdogan there. What do you think of this sort of David Cameron Hamza Yusuf spat? So just to remind people, what happened is that Hamza Yusuf had a bilateral with Erdogan and at COP, and the UK government wasn't informed and UK diplomats were not at the meeting. So I guess there is a principle, which is that if you're not an independent country, you're a devolved administration, you don't conduct independent foreign relations and that it's very important.

57:19It's not just important actually for Hamza Yusuf. That's what Pratel was forced, was sacked from the cabinet for doing, which is having a meeting as the cabinet minister without a position. I think you've been to these summits. If you're there, like let's say, let's take the personalist out of it, say you're a city can't, say you're Mark Drakeford, say you're a Northern Ireland politician, but you happen to go to COP because you're interested in the environment. If you're going to run into people, you're going to talk to people. I think he didn't just run into him. I think it was a step ahead of his workshop meeting because, and certainly, he claims that they told the FCDO it was happening.

57:51So in our system, you would have felt this, like if I'd been a junior minister at COP, and I scheduled a meeting with everyone, and I was like, well, I just bumped into him. You'd be like, what the F you doing, get back in your box, you do not get to have a meeting with everyone who on earth do you think you are? You might be right. Yes, you might. I hadn't talked to people like, but I guess it's the fact that Hamza Yusuf, he is the leader of Scotland and of a different politics to UK. I'm sure if they'd arranged it properly, they would have been prepared on stuff. I was surprised that David Cameron went, of course, so heavy in his, the panning of his letter.

58:26Hey Ho, that's it, Roy, for this week, back tomorrow in question time. Looking forward to it very much. Thank you.