209. Question Time: What happens when privatisation goes wrong?

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0:50Welcome to the Restus Politics Question Time with me, Rory Stewart. And me, I'm a camel. Very good. Here we are. What question appealed to you most this week? Well, there's one that says, for Rory, poor Grindley, how can civil servants become politically active? Now, you've been a civil servant and a politician. And he says, after reading Alice's most recent book, I'm interested in becoming more involved in politics. However, he goes on, as a civil servant, there are limits to what I can get involved in. Does Rory have any advice for active civil servants who want to get politically active? Oh, I'm afraid if you were to.

1:23Yeah, I'm afraid if you want to get really politically active, you should leave the civil service and either become a, you know, a joint party, become a special advisor, stand for election. I don't, I think it's really important that our civil service is independent profession. We were just talking yesterday in relation to Bangladesh that one of the great tragedies is the way in which Bangladesh never managed from the 70s onwards to create a fully professional, independent, non -political civil service. It's one of the great crowns and, you know, crown jewels are Britain. Yeah. I mean, I had an email the other day from not Paul, another civil servant, who said that he was thinking of becoming a candidate.

1:59Very good. But that means to become a candidate, you have to put your name out there. Yeah. So if you have a very, very, very strict view as you do, it means you're further cutting the gene pool. Because he was saying that if he goes for it and doesn't get it, it damages his career. If he goes for it and gets it, his career is civil servants over anyway. Because I don't, you can be a member of a political party. You can. Yeah. Although I wasn't and many civil servants don't join political party. For that reason. Yeah. For that reason. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's a tricky one. It's a tricky one.

2:29Anyway, Paul, just, you know, work away, weedle away. And so civil servants are amazing because obviously they have, you know, like all of us, very strong political views. But generally speaking, they are incredibly professional. I saw something this way that did slightly alarm me and I think would not have happened under any previous government. It was a, the treasury put out one of those sort of tax calculator things that was absolutely to my mind overtly party political. And I saw that the Labour Party have actually written to Simon Case about it. I think the cabinet secretary, I think the lines are already blurring too much.

3:03One of the problems is that because politicians get impatient with being blocked by civil servants, there's been a tendency to bring in civil servants who seem to be more on the government side and more predicate and younger civil servants, people in Simon Case, who's the head of the civil service, but it's much younger, much less experienced in his predecessors. And I guess one of the questions for a Kierstown administration is, will they have the confidence to go back to having more senior people who can be quite awkward, who can often refuse to do what the politicians want to do. Probably a better government.

3:39But makes a better government. Yeah. By the way, when I was having Scotland, Stephen Monroe, regular listener on the coron of ferry, he said, you in particular, but also me, that we too often talk about a Labour government as though it's already a done deal. Yeah. Which you did there when there's a Labour government. Yeah. I assume it's a done deal. Do you really? Yeah. I also think I'm also sort of maybe a bit specialist. Do you assume Brexit was going to happen? I did manage. I had an argument with a guy who was the former Attorney General of Ireland and then the head of Goldman Sachs at one of these horrible trilateral commission meetings in Rome, you know, where all the great European building was there.

4:18So it was count Herman von Rompoy and Mario Montien, all these people bang on. And he said to me, what's going to happen? And I said it's going to be $5248 for Brexit, wrote it on a bit of paper, which he kept. And he produced it for me for about three months before. Okay. Pretty good. But I was largely doing it to wind him up. I'm not sure I would have put a lot of money on it. Okay. Question for you. Malcolm Stark, apart from instances involving legal constraints, when is it permissible for ministers and other politicians to respond with? I haven't seen red herd of this document stroke claim, stroke statement.

4:55Do you think that's a reasonable response if a minister went out and did that in your day? I don't think it's great. I think it's permissible if something is sprung upon you. I guess what that question stems from is that Rishi and I was interviewed by Laura Kunzberg on the BBC and she was asking him about documents, which he said she'd seen, in which he expressed his reservations as chancellor about the Rwandus scheme. And she pressed him quite hard on him. I saw the clips on social media. And he kept saying, I haven't seen the documents. He didn't answer the question about whether he'd express reservations.

5:27So I think that is unacceptable because actually he's only answering the part of the question about the document, I suppose. Just help me because I do. I've been putting myself in his position. I can see why it might be quite awkward if when you were Chancellor, you thought and probably maybe continue to think that Rwandan scheme was a bit dodgy and then as Prime Minister, you're getting behind it. What's the best way of answering that kind of question? Imagine he actually had been a bit against Rwandan scheme when he was Chancellor and now getting behind it. He sort of got there in the end. My job as chancellor is to analyse policy from every which way, but especially the financial implications and what discussions took place led to the policy that we now have.

6:03Right. Now he kind of said that, but he kept making this point. I haven't seen the documents you're talking about. And it was similarly, I don't know if you've seen that mashup, I believe they're called of his evidence to the COVID inquiry. Somebody has put together all the moments of which he says, I don't recall, I can't recall, I can't remember, I don't recall, I don't have an exact regulation. I think once you give the impression that you're actually trying to stall or hide behind it, I think it becomes very unconvincing. But it can be a tactic. It's just a straightforward tactic. John Sunat, how will you keep yourself safe from AI -generated misinformation during the elections?

6:39Well, I don't think anybody can honestly answer that question with any great knowledge. I saw another extraordinary, well, he wasn't extraordinary yesterday. There was one of Joe Biden. He had Kamala Harris at his one side and another woman at the other and he did this response to a question and he basically said, well, I want to answer that in one word. And then he just said this kind of gibberish. Right. Now, I watched that and said that is not real. And you get a feel. And that was on X. Yeah. And then someone put a comment saying this isn't real into the post because that's what they haven't.

7:17At the time I saw it, but the comments below it were including Elon Musk, including Elon Musk with a comment or a question mark or a blinding kind of thing. So I don't know how we're going to handle this. I also saw one of your friend King Charles doing stand -up comedy. Have you seen that one? No. I think it's very, very worrying for everybody. I think it's worrying for our Constitution, monochewing. I mean, one of the questions is how quickly you can get on top of these things. So if I were in government, I would be setting up a very, very efficient rapid, robust, or unit. You almost can't prevent somebody loading something fake onto X.

7:57But you've got to move within minutes to get. So what, I think you need a protocol where let's say you're here, Sami, you're the new prime minister, some crazy stuff goes on, you need a protocol where you can immediately get the leader of the opposition, the key newspapers to come out immediately and say, this is false and have an agreement that you'll do that together. Don't you think that some of these newspapers will be wanting things that they might deep down know aren't real? Actually, turn them into stories. Could you try to build that trust? Remember, it was quite good when there was that fake story about Kirsta and I'm a shouting at someone for dropping his iPad.

8:31There was a very, very rapid rebuttal from Tory ministers who came out immediately and said, this is so clearly there'd been some kind of a very bad idea. But another one I saw last week was a very sort of slick -looking video of, and it was Kirstaama explaining why he's going to have to put taxes up. And was it shot as third of being caught in an iPhone? No, it was quite slick. And it was completely fake. Well, I've certainly never heard of say that. And what I think that will do, that will just do the rounds on WhatsApp groups. And you know, we were talking about, so I need to go next, a lot of the suspense with what's happening.

9:09And no, but also your idea that they come together and say, right, we're all going to come out and rebut this stuff. Presupposes that people are going to be looking out of the rebuttal. They won't, they won't necessarily see the places where it's being rebutted. The context thing. The context thing on X is very tough, isn't it? Yeah, and I'd say, if I were, if I were, Ruchisunak, I would be a little bit alarmed about how many of his tweets at the moment are being contextualized. I don't know whether he's doing them himself or whether he sees them, but an awful lot of them are being contextualized.

9:34Yeah, there was one the other day that said, this is not true. Well, like, I guess that will become part of the normal political machine. But then, there is, there is, there is, there is, we talk about that. That's the part of that. That's the part of that. And playing contextualizing people. Exactly. But then is, what that does is it just sort of feeds this narrative that they're all a bunch of liars and you can't believe or where they say. So I think the most important thing is that the party is just fine better ways of communicating what they are actually saying and doing. And, and in America, I mean, I can't even begin to imagine what the Republicans in particular.

10:04Did you see that, did you see the, by the way, this wasn't fake, did you see God made Trump the video? No, I don't think we should put it in the newsletter, but it was this unbelievable film made by some of these evangelicals about how God made Trump made Trump. So I know we're often accused of pedaltry, but it's quite a niche podcast done by Tristram Harris who does a lot of an AI where he's interviewed two people specifically about AI and elections. It's, it's quite a serious, listen, takes quite a long time. We're not known. No, no, no, I'm, I'm, no, I'm saying, we're not saying any that. I'm trying to say that it may not necessarily be the thing that everybody at top of everyone's list, but if you want a bit of a lesson, we'll put, put a link in what conclusions.

10:49Well, one of the things that they're interested in is this question around whether you can create sort of QAnon style conspiracy, so obviously QAnon, this US conspiracy where, you know, Hillary Clinton's involved in child sex drinks, the same stuff, that AI is very, very good at doing that kind of stuff. But their big point, and I think this is a central point, is that we are in a critical year, which is the gap between when the US, UK and others have worked out what the regulation is and the gap before the regulations actually implements it. So this year of big elections is the most dangerous time imaginable.

11:22People have identified the problems. They've written the laws, but the companies are not going to begin to respond until next year. So we are in the absolute worst moment for this. And with social media, that is exactly the kind of rhythm that the social media companies developed so fast, so effectively from their own perspective, that the politicians by the time they're processed, got anywhere near on top of it, it would already gone. Now listen, here's one which becks bitchly, the critical situation in Germany, what has happened to such a stable country? Yeah, can't tell us about that. Yeah.

11:53Have you followed this stuff yesterday? Can't tell us? Well, we're very used to seeing the French out on the streets, but the German farmers have pretty much yesterday, they just blocked virtually every major road in the country. And this is about subsidies, about diesel prices, it's about, you know, traditional farming issues, but it's been pretty heavy, especially as the government had actually responded to some of their concerns and made some concessions ahead of it. I suspect if France, Beck and Bar hadn't died yesterday, which obviously is massive, what is a big story here as well, but massive news in Germany.

12:29This has been like a really, really difficult moment for the police, for the authorities, and it just didn't feel very German. And of course, the AFD desperately trying to get all over it. Well, tell us a little bit more about that, because one of the things we didn't cover in as much depth as you would have been able to do is the AFD's success in elections in Bavaria. So give us a sense of what the story's been. I mean, you began talking to us about AFD's successes earlier last year, but what's been going on over the last few months with the AFD? Well, they won real power in some places. I, you know, fairly small communities, but they're a little bit of mere relations and so forth.

13:06They're steadily now sort of 20 % in some places, 30 % in the polls. But the problem, the bigger problem, I think, is that the ample coalition, the traffic like coalition, they're all struggling in different ways. Has shots really been able to sort of deliver some of the campaign promises, struggling? Are the tensions, the lintner wing of the coalition actually had a vote over the... What's this way? Sorry, the third part of the French Democrats. They had a vote about whether to continue with the coalition. No, it was passed, but there are clearly big divisions there. You read a lot about difficulties between Shorts and Bearbock, who's the reader of the green part of the coalition, and who's the foreign minister.

13:52And meanwhile, these protests, so Robert Harbeck, who's the vice chancellor, he was on holiday in somewhere up in the north, on one of the islands, and got a ferry word spread that he was on this ferry. And these farmers, no doubt, perhaps sort of ventilated by some of these hard right forces as well, they turned up to greet the ferry, and the police turned out, and they advised the ferry to go elsewhere. So this is ferry with other people on who were said they were... They couldn't dock, because these protesters... They were sort of basically... They were looking for him, yeah. So this is quite fertile ground for the AFD and the far right in Germany, which continues to exploit presumably immigration, climate change...

14:40Of course, living. ...cost to living. Yeah. And the German economy not doing great. Not doing as well as it. They're used to. And then meanwhile, you've got the European elections. You know, about at this point that we've said before about Francois Hollande, saying, have we the Brits had our peak populism with Brexit and Johnson, and is Europe now sort of getting there? Now, I don't know whether come the European elections, whether the far right will do as well as some of their policies. And that's coming in June. Come and close this year, yeah. And possible when the European elections happen that we end up with a situation where the AFD does well, where the Swedish Democrats do well.

15:15Le Penz party. Le Penz party as well. Yeah. Now, it's possible. It's possible that it goes the other way. But if you see this happening in Germany at the start of a new year going into that, and then bear in mind we've just had, well, sticking on Europe last night news that Macron, it was politely put as the Prime Minister is resigning in due course, he's going to point this guy, Gabrielle Attaug. Just to talk to the state of the poor. It's the Prime Minister of France resigning in a 34 -year -old coming in. What is this all about? Well, I suspect it's all about him trying to give the government a bit of a refresh.

15:50I think he's done a pretty amazing job. Considering he hasn't had parliamentary majorities, she's had to get things through the National Assembly. Anyway, Gabrielle Attaug, he's 34 is the Education Minister, he's a very smart, young communicator, background in, I think, communications. He's clearly talking about this time to refresh. That's the sort of thinking behind it. European parliamentary elections never really felt in the UK that they were as important as they do in other parts of the European Union, but these are big deal for all the, of course, the success of the UK Brexit party in some of those elections.

16:28Oh, great. Important in terms of pushing the Conservative party, also the way that the way that Farage used his position in the European Parliament as a platform. We had a question about Farage, actually. Nick Simpson, what's Farage's game in terms of the will he won't be involved with reform during the election? Is he trying to win a place in the Tory party, drum up more publicity, or is he genuinely insure? I imagine he's trying to spot all the angles and work out what allows him to go to the election with the maximum impact for Nigel Farage. Do you think his impact is, when you say Nigel Farage, do you think he actually has political beliefs that he wants to put out there, or is it just an all -attractable game?

17:08Well, does he want his real dream is to be Prime Minister and his best route to be Prime Minister is to take over the Conservative party not to stay with reform. But it's a very, very long shot. I mean, he's not an MP. He's not currently going to be allowed to run as a Conservative MP, and it's very unlikely he'd be able to win a Conservative leadership race. So the alternative, I guess, is to try to continue chipping away and build reform up as a party, but in a two -party system, I don't know how they're going to get the seats. Or is it just about his own profile now? It's interesting when we were talking about the Geek -Farth stat on leading.

17:44I don't know how many he mentioned for our several times, didn't he? He's a big figure politically. Is it maybe just about him? I hesitate to say I felt sorry for Richard Tyson. I wouldn't go that far, but it was fascinating. Richard Tyson is the leader of reform. And reform is what was Brexit. Exactly. So the one that's more from the Senate. We're going back to Goldsmith and the referendum party. And so he did a press, sort of new years press conference to which the press went along in fairly large numbers because they were told that we're going to be special guests there. And it turned out that the special guest was that woman that I had the rather irate argument with.

18:27But they all thought it was going to be for Raj. So they were disappointed? I think it's fair to say they were disappointed. And all the coverage was about what they did say, but who wasn't there? So I think he's probably playing a game. He loves the fact. Somebody will say, oh, well, as come to always do what you're talking about, he'll like all that. But reformers, the Tories must be worried about reform, I'd have thought in some of these. And it's the question that is asked all the time in every country facing a far -right movement, which is do you try to ignore them or do you try to poach their voters back by playing some of their tunes?

19:05And generally, generally, I mean, it's not 100 % true because Boris Johnson was a bit of an exception to this. But generally, if you start playing their tunes, you're doomed because they can always go further right than you can. And you end up going down. Okay, really quick break, back in a minute.

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21:03Emma Siva. Horizon was a PFI initiative. Horizon is the system that was used by the Post Office with this incredible bugs and errors that ended up with people being completely unfairly prosecuted. What are Alice's reflections on PFI, private finance initiatives? Positive outcomes, limitations. Did the nature of PFI contribute to the scandal of what was happening with the Post Office scandal? Let me just quickly for listeners. PFI is something that the new Labour government went into a great deal, but the Conservatives were doing before. The idea was that you get the private sector to pay for some of the upfront costs, and then the government pays rent later.

21:41An example would be the private sector builds a spanking new prison, so it doesn't appear on the government's balance sheets. Then the government basically pays them a rent for the next 25 years using the prison they built the hospitals. In the case of Horizon, Fujitsu, which was the parent company of this bidder, said that they would build this entire computer system for free in exchange for getting the revenue every time somebody swipes through their benefits card. So again, very attractive to the government because it's really good for their public balance sheet in debt because it's all theoretically sits with the private sector, and it's all paid for through the current account, not through the capital account, anyway, over your PFI.

22:22Well, I'd say there were positive outcomes, and there are also limitations. I don't think we could have done the scale of public sector investment repair, say in schools and rebuilding of schools, and also development of hospitals. I don't think we could have done it without PFI. I think if we'd have just sort of gone in and said, right, the only way we can do this is through raising your taxes. One, would we have won the election with the majority that we got unlikely? Would we, if we just decided to do it that way in government, would that not have led to endlessly being accused of betrayal, therefore wouldn't have won the second term, let alone the third term?

23:00So I think the PFI was an important part of the public sector. But where if the government getting money into the system without raising taxes or borrowing because basically the private sector is paying for it, then the government pays them back later. In a sense, you're sharing the risk. Right. And I think the limitations, I mean, this, this came out when we talked about the, about the post office, you're dependent in a way on the same standards being applied as you would to a public sector operation. And that is not always going to be good. What are the things that I noticed when we were dealing with these things in minister justice is that unlike a normal commercial contract, the government is really over a barrel.