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Podcast Notes: The Rest Is Politics - Episode 218
Episode Overview Title: Could the Democrats replace Joe Biden? What’s next for Imran Khan? Why are young people deserting British conservatism? Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart Description: In this episode, the hosts analyze significant political developments in the US and abroad, focusing on Joe Biden's competence, Imran Khan's legal challenges in Pakistan, and the shifting political landscape among young British voters.
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Key Discussions
- Joe Biden’s Competence and Election Prospects
- Background: Recent inquiries into Biden's handling of classified documents raised questions about his competence.
- Main Arguments:
- Some argue the allegations stem from a Republican attack line.
- A report by Republican lawyer Robert Hur noted Biden's memory issues, describing him as an elderly man struggling with recall.
- The hosts discussed how these memory issues could impact Biden's re-election campaign, even amid positive economic indicators such as GDP growth and rising personal income.
- Biden’s gaffes and public performance, particularly his mixing up of names and places, contribute to perceptions of his competence.
- Counterpoints:
- Democrats argue that Biden's overall decision-making ability remains intact despite memory lapses.
- Despite economic growth, a disconnect remains between macroeconomic indicators and public sentiment about financial security.
- Trump’s NATO Threats and Foreign Policy Implications
- Overview: Trump’s comments regarding NATO funding and protection for European countries pose risks.
- Key Points:
- Trump's stance suggests potential American indifference to European security concerns, echoing his past remarks during his presidency.
- The hosts discussed how this rhetoric could embolden adversaries like Russia and undermine NATO unity.
- Implications for Europe:
- European nations have increased defense spending since Trump’s presidency, but the capabilities still lag compared to the US.
- Imran Khan and Pakistan’s Political Landscape
- Context: Imran Khan, former Prime Minister, faces legal challenges and imprisonment amid political turmoil.
- Key Points:
- Khan’s party performed surprisingly well in recent elections despite allegations of vote rigging and military interference.
- The military's influence in Pakistan remains a critical factor in the country's political dynamics.
- Potential for a revolutionary moment as public sentiment against military control grows, especially among Khan’s supporters.
- Young Voters and British Conservatism
- Observation: A significant shift among young voters away from the Conservative Party.
- Key Statistics:
- Ownership of homes among younger demographics in the UK has dropped significantly, impacting political sentiment.
- Many young people feel disillusioned about upward social mobility, exacerbating their disengagement from Conservatism.
- Discussion on Brexit:
- The fallout from Brexit has also contributed to growing dissatisfaction among young voters towards the Conservative Party.
- Upcoming Indonesian Elections
- Overview: Indonesia's elections on Valentine's Day are set to be critical for the country’s future.
- Key Players:
- Prabowo Subianto, current defense minister, is emerging as a leading candidate with significant backing.
- The role of social media and AI in the upcoming elections is evident, influencing voter engagement and sentiment.
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Key Takeaways
- Biden's Competence: Concerns over Biden’s memory could significantly affect electoral prospects, regardless of positive economic indicators.
- Trump's Foreign Policy: Trump's NATO comments pose serious implications for international security and alliances.
- Imran Khan: Khan's party's resilience indicates a potential backlash against military influence in Pakistan.
- Youth Discontent in the UK: Economic hardships and disillusionment with political promises drive young voters away from the Conservatives.
- Indonesian Elections: The interplay of cultural history and modern political maneuvering will shape Indonesia's democratic future.
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Conclusion This episode of *The Rest Is Politics* provided an in-depth analysis of critical international and domestic political issues. The discussions highlighted the interconnectedness of personal competence, party loyalty, and public sentiment in shaping electoral outcomes across different nations.
For more insights and updates, follow the podcast on social media and consider subscribing to *The Rest Is Politics Plus* for exclusive content.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Thanks for listening to The Restless Politics. Sign up to The Restless Politics plus to enjoy ad -free listening and receive a weekly newsletter. Join our members' chat room again early access to live show tickets. Just go to TheRestlessPolitics .com. That's TheRestlessPolitics .com.
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1:35Hello and welcome to TheRestlessPolitics with me, Alistair Campbell and me, Rory Stewart. As we said last week, TheRestlessPolitics' election tour pre -sale is now live for members of TheRestlessPolitics plus for 48 hours and as members will have read in yesterday's email, it went on sale at 8am GMT this morning Wednesday. Exactly, Alistair. The Lincoln Presale Code has been distributed to members via email. The presale will close at 9am on Friday the 16th of February, head of the General South Public, which is going to run from 10 o 'clock on Friday. So book quickly. So a few tour details we will be kicking off in Brighton, Sunday, October the 6th.
2:18We'll then go for a further six shows in Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Cardiff to all those you say we never go to Wales. Before closing terrifyingly at the O2 arena in London on Tuesday, the 15th October. Actually, this London performance, the O2, is set to be quite something. Our show is going to be hosted in the round, but like a boxing bow to Alistair. So as you like that play, Cabaret, I try and make you go and see. I will, I will, I will. It's the first time the O2 will have hosted a live podcast on stage. Excellent. Tickets are limited to six people per transaction. I assume that's to stop all the touts, or worry.
2:55If you're late to the party, you can still sign up to the presale by becoming a member, by going to the restisponalties .com. You'll receive the link presale code in your welcome email and if previous shows are anything to go by, tickets will sell quickly. And if you don't manage to get tickets in the presale, you have another chance in the General Sale, which opens 10 a .m. Friday 16th February. We'll tweet a link when the minister goes live. I know you're very excited to be going to the foreman Wales for the first time, but also did you know the venue in Glasgow is called the Armadillo? Yeah, Armadillo, I'm getting getting my scales on.
3:27I'm already to be reptilianly defended against any attacks. Okay, well, let's get on with today. And there's not that much going on domestically. There's this Labour chaos in Rochtdale. There's Rishi Sunak. I didn't watch it. I couldn't bear to watch his GB news thing. So I think we should have a very kind of a broad focus today. I think we should talk about Trump and Biden. There's two incredibly big important elections, one that's already happened in Pakistan and one that is about to happen in Indonesia, the third biggest democracy in the world. So we should talk about those. Does that sound okay with you kick off with America?
4:08Absolutely. And I guess there are lots of news coming out of America, but one of the first things is this whole question, which we're going to keep coming back to about people's comments on Biden's competence. And it may be very, very unfair. I mean, many of my in -laws, why I keep quoting on the show, keep saying Biden is fine and this is just a Republican attack line, but there is absolutely no doubt that this is going to be central to the election. So over to you. Well, I guess the reason this became so kind of big again in the American media and around the world, because this is such an important election for the world, was because of this inquiry by a guy called Robert Her.
4:46Now, this troubles me that when he was doing his report, all the American news media was saying, you know, the well -known Republican lawyer. And it is a problem this that we do have this sense now of this political polarization in the American legal system. But this was an investigation into Biden having kept classified documents after he stopped being vice president. Now, the prosecutor, this guy, her, he said there were no criminal charges to bring. Clearly, Biden had taken documents that he shouldn't, but there were no criminal charges to bring. But he came up with these absolutely devastating reminder move the Komi report on Hillary Clinton, just devastating comments about Biden's inability to remember things.
5:29He said that he wasn't bringing a case because he thought that Biden would probably persuade a jury that it was an elderly, an elderly man who couldn't remember anything, which if you're the president going for your second term is devastating, said that he couldn't remember when he was vice president, which I frankly just don't believe, couldn't remember when his son had been killed. And that really did seem to get to buy it. It's extraordinary that isn't it? Just some of the quotes, you know, Mr. Biden's recorded conversations in 2017 are often painfully slow with Mr. Biden's struggling to remember events, straining at times to read and relay his own notebook entries.
6:02In his interview with our office, Mr. Biden's memory was worse, so it's six years later. Did not remember when he was vice president for getting on the first day, the infusion is term ended and for getting on the second day of the infusion when his term began. And I mean, interesting for people like me who are sort of obsessive watches of US policy on Afghanistan, he got very confused about his view on Afghanistan in 2009 and his relationship to general iconbree. I can breathe was the American general who became the ambassador and who like Biden was very skeptical about the surge and was in favor of more of a life footprint in Afghanistan.
6:36But he says his memory appeared hazy when describing the Afghanistan debate that was once so important to him. Among other things, he mistakenly said he had a real difference for opinion with general Carl I can breathe. When in fact, I can breathe was an ally. Mr. Biden cited approvingly. And his thanksgiving memory to President Obama. Now, the defense, I guess, mounted by I'm sorry to keep putting Shashan as parents to this, but I think they will be representative of many, many loyal Democrats is to say yes, his memory may be going and older people struggle to remember things and that's normal.
7:09But that's not the same in any way as saying he's seen on and that he's still able to make decisions well. The performance, the economy implies that he's presiding well over the United States and that if he was genuinely suffering from some kind of dementia, you'd have many more people from his administration resigning and breaking away and complaining about it, which isn't happening. So I guess the defense says yes, he's old and the old people's memory goes, but that isn't the same as him being unfit to be president. Yeah, and I suppose parts of the defense as well is that this did seem to be a very, very political act.
7:43I don't think there's getting away from that. You get the feeling that this guy couldn't nail him for having broken any laws that justified bringing criminal charges and all the complexities that would bring with the serving president, but at the same time felt he had to land a few blows and these were devastating blows. So fissioned for Biden to fairly had to go out and address the media and address the country and of course wasn't helped by the fact that having already mixed up Mutel and Mako, he then mixed up CC, the Guru of Egypt with the president of Mexico. So these kind of little missteps and by the way, Joe Biden is quite famous for his gaffes through his entire career.
8:23Yeah, I don't even saw it already. I sent you a picture of yesterday was the 49th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher becoming leader of the Conservative Party. And there was a picture of Margaret Thatcher in her first year as opposition leader almost half a century ago with the then Delaware Senator Joe Biden. So experience he most certainly has, but he's always kind of made these gaps. I think you're point about the economy is interesting as well because the economy, if you look at the numbers, is doing well, you know, you've got disposable personal income, unlike here, for example, in the UK, rising, you've got real GDP up 2 .5%.
9:03And you know, he does have very good economic numbers. And yet, at probably the other day, gave Trump a double digit lead on the economy. So it's almost as if the sense of what is actually happening in the country related to what's happening politically. There's a disconate which is not at the moment able to fix. Yeah, so that's an interesting thing. I mean, this great line which we keep coming back to, it's the economy's stupid. And often when journalists cover this, or when I guess commentators cover this, they look at big macroeconomic figures. So when they look at the US, you know, growth has been very strong in the US, 2 .6 % you know, compared to hovering around zero for Germany, Britain, and a lot of European countries.
9:48The stock markets have been performing well and wages in the US have gone up above inflation and inflation is now coming steeply down in the US compared to the UK again, which is really struggling to get on the top inflation. So the assumption is you look at those big top line economic figures and that should mean that he should have an easy run into the election. But the reason I've always been a bit skeptical about this is I'm never sure how much top line figures produced by economists really translate into how people actually feel in their pockets and to try to illustrate that. Maybe I'm getting this wrong, but I guess if you're on a low income in the US or in Britain or anywhere, you almost certainly have a lot of debt.
10:29You're almost certainly struggling to afford housing, housing is much more expensive in the US to where it was. Your petrol bill is up, food bills are up. And even if your salary has gone up a little above inflation, you are still very, very anxious. It's a sort of marginal change. It's not exactly as though these macroeconomic figures mean you're suddenly dancing in the streets and a desperate vote for someone. Anyway, over to you on that. Well, no, that is true, but my god, Rishi Sunak, what he wouldn't give the numbers that the Americans have right now. Joe Biden is clearly not stepping down.
11:06That seems pretty clear to me. There was a real rallying around of him. Kamahar has went out to speak in his defence and say how well she thought he was doing. Senior Democrats went out. Very significantly, I think his wife Jill went out, didn't interview, spoke publicly, doesn't do that that often, said that he's vigorous and he's fit and all this stuff. But you're right that this is going to become huge. And of course, if he was up against a reasonable, mild, malered, fair sort of opponent, it would be, you know, probably you could get through it with Trump, who is an absolute, as Robert Sapolsky in the absolutely wonderful episode of Leading this Week, Morion.
11:45Thank you for getting him on. I thought it was absolutely brilliant, but the whole, you know, Trump is the biggest baboon in the jungle and he is going to pit every weak point of Biden that he can. And this, of course, you know, yes, we talk about Biden's age, but I do think in terms, certainly in terms of UK's relevance to this election and what we need to get out of this election, I do think the far more significant this week was this stump speech that Trump gave. You know, he stands up with these big rallies and he just sort of blathers on. And you don't know. I mean, we're going about Biden's sort of mental capacity.
12:21Kevin knows what's going on inside Trump's. Can I come in on that one quickly? Because I think that's, that's of course what Democrats are now saying. They're saying, look, Biden may be a bit forgetful, but people increasingly saying Trump is showing signs of actual proper dementia. I mean, they, they point to him doing an extraordinary speech where he keeps saying, you know, if the Democrats, when they're going to change the name of Pennsylvania, and he's certainly seems to often speak as though he thinks Obama's still president and he confuses Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley, but it, but it's more than that.
12:52Paul Krueger uses this word of kind of a word salad that really something very, very odd goes on in the neural networks of Donald Trump. But again, his defenders say, well, that's just Trump. He's always been a bit like that. Yeah. But you know, two things this week, the first one, as you mentioned, Nikki Haley, he said, you know, this is a guy by the way, whose wife, Melania, nobody ever sees. And I think we're talking on leading this week to Anthony Scaramucci, who was very briefly served as Trump's communications guy. And I've talked to him before and he said, you know, he was told about how much his wife hates Trump.
13:31And he's he says, you know, my wife hates Trump almost as much as Melania does. So, so that's a given that Melania and Trump are not exactly the closest married couple in the world. And yet he decides to go out and make a thing. They're saying, where's Nikki Haley's husband? Why is Nikki Haley's husband not on the scene? And Nikki Haley's husband is serving abroad. He's a military guy who's serving abroad. So Joe Biden comes straight out and says, this guy wouldn't know service if he hit him in the face. But the other thing, I think the really significant intervention from Trump was this thing that he said about Russia and NATO.
14:07And this is back to his old thing, which he did when he was president. And he's very enough to sort of call people out for not paying their dues into NATO. But he said this, you didn't pay, you're delinquent. No, I won't protect you. In fact, I would encourage them, the Russians, to do whatever they want. You've got to pay. So this is an American president, America being the most powerful country within NATO, essentially saying to Vladimir Putin, just as he said to Vladimir Putin, I think it'd be great if you hacked Hillary Clinton's emails. He's basically saying, you know, if you want to invade Finland, you want to invade Latvia, you want to invade these little countries around the place, just go ahead and do it.
14:42Yeah, it's completely appalling because, I mean, firstly, because the words for an American president really matter. So small, small signals from the US led Saddam Hussein to feel that he could invade Q8, small signals from the US encouraged Putin to believe it was okay to go into Crimea. This is not a small signal. This is a huge signal. And of course, the reality is that NATO countries will not meet the 2 % before Trump is in office. So I think that's first thing, it's a little bit of background just on where we are with NATO funding. So NATO is committed all the countries, NATO. And just to remind people, North Atlantic Treaty organization, set up after the Second World War, initially arranged around countries like the UK, Canada, and the US and others, but increasingly encompassing most of the countries of Europe.
15:35And broadly speaking, NATO countries fall into a third who are paying more than 2%. A third who are on track to get there and a third who are nowhere near getting there. So the ones that are already there, UK up at 2 .2 % places like Poland, up in the high three is even maybe low 4%, in a big expenditure, the Baltics, so the close you are to Russia, the more you're spending on defense. And then countries like Spain well, well below, Italy, well below. Germany and France on track probably to get to 2 % which matters because they're enormous economies. The trend since Trump came in, actually if you wanted to defend Trump for a second, whether to do with his pressure or whether just to do with the way that Russia has behaved, these countries have massively increased their spending since 2016.
16:21So I think there's an additional $350 billion of NATO expenditure compared to what it would have been if they hadn't increased. And Germany's increased 2 %'s a big thing. I think Germany's in particular was very much a response to to Russia Ukraine. That's when the big the big hike came. But this is you know, we've just had the election in Finland where dare I say, will we my friend be your friend? That was not good. That was the depressing thing. Just as my friend was offering to come on the podcast. Well, we'll try to get the new president, Ali Zedner, to stub on his forward prime minister. But you know, that debate about defense and relationship, you know, how you deal with the threat from Russia was absolutely central to the campaign.
17:03And then literally in the week of that final week of voting, up pops Trump. And we'd even think about the consequences of these other countries. I very much doubt it. And of course, when we spoke to Geath Hofstad, the former Belgian prime minister on leading recently, he was making this point that, you know, Europe has to think more seriously about his own defenses because if Trump does win, Europe cannot rely on America in the same way as it can right now. And the problem is that it's got an unbelievable hell to climb. I mean, I think it would be a mistake to think that even if these countries were spending 2%, they would be anywhere close to being able to deal with this.
17:38I mean, as I've pointed out, the US is producing 10 times as much support to Ukraine as any other. Yeah. Single country. And it's not just the 2%, it's that the under expenditure, this piece of it ends since the end of the Cold War, has meant that capability is so eroded. Most of these countries haven't been doing proper training exercises. There's been a real lack of investment in basic stuff like ammunition. And then there's been this fact that really since Iraq and Afghanistan, in so far as countries been doing other things, they've been doing fights against in certain groups like the Taliban.
18:13And that's a very different type of fighting compared to fighting Russia. So they haven't been investing in tanks. They haven't been investing in artillery. They haven't been investing in these very complicated command and control things which should become central in Ukraine. So really building up, even if they got to the 2%, really building up to be in a position to begin to defend themselves against Russia. I mean, while Rory, we got this big NATO exercise that's about to happen, UK, as you say, one of the few countries that is spending 2 % plus. And yet, aircraft carrier one gets ground docked, can't go.
18:50Don't worry, says government. We've got another one. We can send that one. And now it turns out that one can't go either. And meanwhile, our defense secretary, Grant Shaps, is writing articles for the Daily Express saying that he's going to wage war on woke inside the army. This is not a serious government. Yeah, I think the Britain situation is a really good way of looking at the problems that are going to face all the non -US NATO countries as they begin to build up because you're right, Britain is spending 2 .2%. And when I was chair of defense committee, I was one of the people leading this campaign to get the 2%, which we got through.
19:27But of course, the actual debt of the military is unbelievable. There are tens of billions of pounds in the red. And they bought these very high status things like aircraft carriers. But of course, an aircraft carrier is a floating target, unless you surround it with a lot of other ships that we can't afford, unless you pay for planes to go on it. So these things can take over 30 planes. We can't pay for the planes to go on the aircraft carrier. So the whole thing is, you know, that's just one example you've pointed to, of problems right the way through the military. And to actually sort those problems out, would probably cost, you know, tens of billions of pounds more a year.
20:04And the question is whether a Labour government's going to produce that probably not with all the other priorities they have on their table. Yeah, I do think though that defense and foreign policy should be playing a much bigger part in the national debate right now. You know, you and I did an event the other day for 1 ,400 people in the business world. And I did a couple of other events last week and I've added to my, seem to remember you did four in 24 hours. Yeah, but they weren't an evening event, morning lunch and evening. Yeah, but there's some of some of the were of a charitable nature, or it wasn't just sort of, you know, it's a big picture.
20:39It's quite exhausting. Yeah, but I've added, you know, my when I like to get a show of hands, I've added one, which is do you think the world is more or less safe than it was 10 years ago? And it's like everybody is saying 100 % to people are saying the world is less safe. Now that does mean you would think that we should be having a more serious debate, which is right at the central political debate right now about defense and security. And you know, I don't think we're really having that debate. One small update for people, which is just sort of breaking news as we're recording the podcast, listen, it'll be very work as we talked about a lot that for months now, the assistance package to Ukraine has been delayed in the Senate.
21:23And there was a breakthrough Monday, U .S. time, late Monday night, U .S. time, where finally key senators, key Republican senators, in particular, voted with the Democrats, 17 Republicans joined the Democrats to pass it by 6633, which means that probably on Wednesday, we will be in a situation where that bill finally goes through, which is a huge deal. That's $95 billion was $60 billion for Ukraine. And it's encouraging in a way because these are Republican senators breaking directly against Trump. I mean, Trump has basically given orders that this bill is to be stopped. Supporters of his have been out saying this is a deliberate attempt to undermine Trump by baking money into the system before Trump takes over.
22:05But most of the Republican leadership, Mitch McConnell, a lot of the armed services and veterans are remaining relatively traditional Republican and voted with the Democrats to get this through. So that will make a huge difference that Ukraine front. I mean, literally $60 billion worth of difference. And that coming a week after the European Union finally got its package through by putting Mr. Orban up against the wall and putting his arm up behind his back and say, listen sunshine, you've had your fun now, you're not going to block this. So that is good news. Can I just sort of final thing? We talk about these events we do together.
22:40One of the questions we've been asking when we're doing live events, we'll do it again when people come and hear us in the O2 and elsewhere is who thinks Trump's going to win and who thinks Biden's going to win. But I've been on an obsession since I guess the end of last year that we're going to end up with a president who's neither Trump or Biden. And structurally, we've talked about the problems with their aging of memories. We've got the legal challenges against Trump. I think there's an increasing chance. I don't know whether it's 30, 40 % chance that we could end up with a president who's neither Trump or Biden.
23:13And I think we need to start discussing maybe in future podcasts who could be a democratic replacement for Biden, even though people think that's never going to happen, even though it seems structurally almost impossible to bring in a replacement. Yeah, we should just say, by the way, that at that event that we did together and at the other event I did last week, there has been an absolutely massive shift towards people think that Trump is going to be the president. Now, I think it is not going to be Trump. That may be wishful thinking, but I do think you and I have argued about this for well over a year now.
23:48I thought the age thing would not become the issue that it is clearly becoming. I saw a poll, an American poll the other day saying it's now, you know, it's the number one kind of talking point in terms of when people talk about Biden. It's the first thing that they talk about. There is there is a kind of thing, Raleigh that Michelle Obama is going to just sort of pop up at the last minute. And now I think that's highly unlikely. But yeah, you're probably right. We should talk about some of the others who who made me vote. Maybe before we leave America, we should just point out that Taylor Swift won the Super Bowl.
24:21Quite an amazing achievement. I don't think she played exactly, but and that's what I kind of remember it was, but my favorite tweet of the whole. Well, first of all, Andy Murray, shout out to Andy Murray, the tennis player. He did say congratulations for Taylor Swift for winning the Super Bowl. But somebody else said, you know, great victory for the deep state, the deep state always wins in the end. Wait, wait, wait, just help me because I'm missing my mother's now talking all the time about Taylor Swift. Why is the public suddenly more focused on Taylor Swift than ever before? Well, first of all, because she is a massive star.
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24:53I don't know whether she's the biggest, but she's one of the biggest sort of musicians on the planet. She's got a massive following, very, very loyal following the core Swifties, Rory. And the Republic, because she is pro -Biden, the Republicans have decided to go for her. She has this relationship. Her boyfriend is this guy, Travis Kelsey, who plays for the Kansas City Chiefs who won. And it was in the May, I'm not big enough. That's right. And you told us, you told us last week that the theory from the Republicans is it was all going to be rigged so that he could win. Correct. And adding fuel to that theory is the fact that they got a kick.
25:30They scored like with seconds to go in the game. So it went into what's called overtime and they won in overtime. So incredibly kind of dramatic win. Cameras all around Taylor Swift the whole time, and then the sort of big hugging and kissing with the boyfriend. Since when Trump has come out himself attacking Taylor Swift, because he says that the changes that he made to music legislation when he was president is what's made her rich and famous. I mean, as you know, nothing can happen. So I think we should, I've become a huge fan of Taylor Swift just for the fact that she so clearly gets under the skin of Trump and all his supporters.
26:10Very good. Okay. Now the final final thing you brought to our attention before we go to the break is the fact that the UK is an outlier in the number of younger people who are voting a laborer and against the conservatives. Now that that wouldn't normally be surprising. I mean, normally we expect younger people to be more left wing, but actually in many countries, as you've pointed out, strangely younger people, and particularly young men are often actually quite conservative and are voting for populist, right wing parties. But in the UK, that doesn't seem to be true over to you on some of the reasons why that might not be true in the UK.
26:43Well, it's not about the reasons, but this guy John Bern Murgh who people don't follow him, they should because he's very good at sort of drilling down on data. And essentially what it's showing is that I think it's fair to say that the young are pretty much giving up on the conservatives. Whereas in other countries, as you say, there is still this sort of propensity to believe that, well, maybe conservatism, strong leadership, all the sort of patriotic stuff that the right tries to take for itself. Do you think there's also possibly an encompassing thing, which is that young people often around the world are pretty angry about their economic prospects, pretty angry about the way the world's going.
27:21So if you've got a left wing government in, they will gravitate towards the right. And if you've got a right wing government in, they'll gravitate against. Yeah, possibly, but the thing that's happening here, if you look at the numbers and the graphs, the thing that really seems to be driving this is the fact that the young generation in our country, and there's plenty of evidence why they should feel this, feel that there's been a kind of effective breakdown of upward social mobility. And a lot of that measured in housing and the difficulties young people are finding to get on the, on the housing ladder, or to get any housing at all other than with their, with their parents.
27:58So, for example, the share of 25 to 34 -year -olds who own their own home in the US is 6 percentage points lower than it was in 1990. In Germany, it's 8 points lower. In France, it's 3 points lower. In Britain, it's 22 points lower. That's a huge drop in people who feel that they cannot get into a situation where, where they can get their own home. And bear in mind, one of the big things of conservative leadership, I think the last five prime ministers have all promised that this kind of thing of people getting their first foot of the house in that was a big thing. And it's just not happening.
28:37Yeah. And they think the other thing that you brought to my touch at Articles is the percentage of young people thinking that hard work is going to bring rewards is much lower in Britain. It's now 39 % in Britain compared to 49 % in Germany, 60 % of the US. And that's interesting because actually, if you go back to 2012, this statistic on whether hard work would bring rewards actually had the UK quite high. I mean, the US has always been much higher, partly because Americans are astonishingly optimistic often against all the evidence on these kinds of things. But it has dropped dramatically in the UK.
29:11Actually, these things are dropping all around the world, which is one of the things that's fueling, I think, far -right populism. But it's more dramatic the drops in the UK than elsewhere. The other factor that does come up is Brexit before the referendum, the share of 18 to 34 -year -olds in Britain who said they strongly dislike the conservative party, was at around 20 % and it's more than doubled since then. And I do think Brexit is a big part of that. Very good. Okay. So there we are on young people loathing the Tory party. Let's take a break. Thank you. Let's have a break on that subject.
29:44Thank you.
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31:59Welcome back to the rest of politics with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alex Campbell. And Alex, thank you at the beginning for calling out our Robert's Supposed Skin to Fue on Leading, which just remind people who haven't got this yet. We've got a separate stream called Leading, which has these amazing interviews, which I think almost one of things we're most proud of, where we've had everybody from Bill Gates to Arnold Schwarzenegger to in this case, Robert Supposed Skin, who isn't as famous as either of those. He is an expert on the human brain and primates brains and spent years sitting in the Kenyan desert studying baboons.
32:32What did you make of Supposed Skin? I thought it was brilliant. I'm in France at the moment. If you're in I were driving down through France listening to it. And you know, I don't know about you. When I'm doing these interviews, I'm so sort of focused on doing the interviews and the next question thinking what that was being said. When I get out of them, I sort of forget them. So it was almost like listening to it again. And Fiona had been saying to me, when I said we're doing this guy called Robert's Supposed Skin, who's he always a famous scientist. What on earth are you talking to famous scientists about the nobody's heard of kind of thing?
32:59But she said it was and I created. She said it. She thought it was one of the most interesting we've done. I got messages from people as Brendan Foster, the great athlete sent me a message saying he thought this is one of our best. Sphana Gisler, who is the founder of the Abbotars. This is Abba. She sent me a message saying, God, this was amazing. We got loads of good feedback. Well, I'm so pleased. Well, maybe we should occasionally, I mean, not all the time, but occasionally branch out and do more people that we think are kind of interesting, provocative thinkers, as well as kind of leading politicians.
33:34Yeah, because I also thought the thing about, you know, we, you and I talk a lot privately about the whole kind of thing of mental health and and politics. I thought it was very, very interesting on the psychology of politics. And I just love the idea of him sitting there looking at baboons hitting each other on the arse and relating that to how Donald Trump behaves in public life. Now, I really recommend people listen to Robert Spoltsky. It was great. And do check out the pictures of him as well. He's a very interesting looking guy too. Very good. Well, Pakistan. Pakistan, yep. So quick introduction to Pakistan.
34:08Pakistan obviously the country that formed after partition from India around an Islamic identity ruled by a military government for many, many years from the forties, but settled into basically a two -party system. It's got an election system like the UK first passed the post and its two -party system pitted the PPP, which people will remember because it's connected with Benazir Bhutto who was tragically assassinated, but will be very well known maybe to many internationalists. And the government that was in power most recently, the Muslim League run by a man called Nahuascharif, whose prime minister and is being prime minister in the past.
34:45These two parties basically dominated Pakistani politics and they had two very different electoral bases. So the Muslim League had a big base in the Punjab and the PPP had a big base in Sindh, they're around Karachi. Until an incumbent emerged and incumbent was Imran Khan. An Imran Khan set about from the 1990s onwards trying to launch a third party that was going to break through. And Imran Khan, as you've pointed out on the podcast before, has been literally the most famous person in Pakistan since he was about 18 years old. Great Pakistani cricket champion, amazing, charismatic, very good -looking figure, famous for his social life, and it's very difficult to think of a UK or US equivalent to somebody quite so central to the culture and famous.
35:34But even with all of that, of course, he really struggled to break through in a two -party system. So when he first ran, got almost no seats, next time he ran, I think he got one seat. And I remember in the past when I used to spend a lot of time in Pakistan, so end of the 1930s, early 2000s, everyone would just sort of laugh at the idea that Imran Khan could ever break through. And then he did. He broke through. He became Prime Minister, took over the country and was then toppled essentially by a no -confidence vote in Parliament. So it's getting a similar system to the UK in that way. He was taken down and then he was charged with a number of criminal charges and is currently in prison.
36:14And in this situation, an election was held with Imran Khan in prison and an astonishing upset because Imran Khan's party got more seats than anyone else and they would claim would have swept an incredible overwhelming majority if it had not been for amazing election interference. We should say, as you say, Imran Khan's party, in fact, they all stood effectively as independence because a large section of the Pakistani population don't read or write and symbols, elections become incredibly important. And the PTI in Imran Khan's party, the symbol, unsurprisingly, has been a cricket bat. And they were banned from using the cricket bat.
36:58All sorts of sort of attempts to stop them running, all sorts of accusations of pre -pol vote rigging. And yet, as you say, those candidates who support Imran Khan and his party, the PTI, they have won 93 seats. Now, as Sharif has come second and he has the backing, he's thought to have the backing of the army, which is incredibly powerful in Pakistan. He's got 75 seats. And then the PPP, led by Bouteau's son, Billewel Bouteau Zadari, they came in third with 54 seats and are now sort of trying to play a bit of a Kingmaker role. And although, as you say, the system is similar in many respects to the UK.
37:42One of the big differences is that they have 336 seats. 266 are decided by the voting that we've had. And then 70 are reserved. 64 women, 10 for non -Muslims. And these are given now, according to the votes that the parties got. But of course, in what's going on now, the coalition sort of discussions, they are not being given to Imran Khan's party because these were all standing as independence. Because it's not formally a party. Yeah. You mentioned the military, and I think that's the big difference. We've talked a lot about Bangladesh recently and we'll be talking about Indonesia. But of these three enormous Asian Muslim countries that are having elections this year, the big difference with Pakistan is the military.
38:29And it's one of these countries, Egypt's another example. Turkey was, until we see another example, where the military is almost everything. The military has a huge share of the economy. So when you retire as a general, you get to take over some military company. They get incredible preferences in the economy. They're immune from strikes. And their position is Bizarre. Remember talking to a Pakistani friend who went into the parliament and went to see the chief web and discovered a full kernel sitting in the chief office, basically telling the web what to do. Again, Asma Jahangir, who's an amazing human rights leader in Pakistan, her daughter has a big TV program in which she criticises the military, but an army major literally sits in the studio.
39:14And every time she's critical of the military, he presses a button and cuts her out. So if you watch the TV show, it's just sort of me, and then she talks to another student being together. So the military is the key. And the story of Emron Khan's rise to power is of course a bit more complicated because you could present him as this sort of plucky democratic outsider. But the reason he got into power is that in those days, the military was behind him. So the military were fed up with the Muslim League, fed up with the PPP and put their weight behind Emron Khan. And they vote rigged and stuffed in his favor last time round and got him into power.
39:50And he now says they got him out. And they now definitely did get him out. And why did they get him out? They got him out because when he was in power and took a lot of their tips, he then turned against them and began railing against the military and tried to do what Erdogan successfully did in Turkey. But Emron Khan was less smart about it. Erdogan in Turkey spent nearly 10 years working out how to undermine the Turkish military. There was then a coup d 'etat attempt against him, which he used very scoffally to shut down finally almost all the military opposition to him and create a secular state.
40:26And that's what I think Emron Khan was hoping to do. He was hoping to be the person who led Pakistan out of military rule. And when he was taken down by this corruption charges, the were attempts by his supporters to storm military checkpoints. They got into a military barracks. And all that of course has terrified the military even more. So they're even more determined to make sure that he remains. Absolutely. This thing about the Tony Blair. We went to Pakistan a few times and Musharraf was in charge. And of course he military background. And yet, I can remember that you always had a feeling of the guys who were as it were current military.
41:07You really had a sense that even if those times where they say, let's just go and have a chat head to head just the two of us and Tony Blair and Musharraf would go and have a little chat. But you sort of had a feeling that the ones that were left outside the room, the military guys, actually were just as powerful, if not more powerful. And the head of the army, as in Munir, he and Emron Khan now are, I think it's fair to say, pretty sworn enemies. But what will really be worrying the army? Because what happened has to happen now. They have a few weeks to be able to put a government together. Very hard to see how this is going to happen because the various coalitions that are possible.
41:42You could have Sharif's party, PMLN joining with Bouto. But then there's the need a few other parties for that. You could have Bouto joining up with the independence. But I think that then the question goes, who's the prime minister? Who's going to actually take the lead in that? It's not a tall obvious how this is going to pan out. So actually it could be that at some point the army say, well, that we're mid this chaos, we are actually going to have to impose ourselves. And I think the most likely scenario is that you end up with now a Sharif taking over again with a PPP coalition because Emron Khan says he's not going into coalition with anyone else, that bunch of independence won't go.
42:22Some of those independence are already being picked off. Some of them arrived, some of them literally put in jail until they declare for the Muslim leaks. So he's losing some of his independence. And as you say, the army is now such sworn enemies of Emron Khan, they're not going to accept the idea of Emron Khan becoming the next prime minister or getting out of jail anytime soon. It's also a sign. I mean, we've talked a lot about the way in which in many countries court cases in the situation in the US to are used against political opponents to rule them out of the presidency. And of course, the background story around that is that these countries have incredible challenges around corruption.
43:01I mean, corruption in Pakistan permeates deeply, the Muslim League permeates deeply the PPP. And although Emron Khan himself may not personally be corrupt, he probably isn't personally corrupt. Boy, did he have a lot of corrupt ministers? And it certainly seems as though Bushrabebe who's his new wife. I mean, so you remember Emron Khan was married to to Jameima Goldsmith, this sort of very prominent British, I don't know how we describe Jameira. She's very interesting, but she's very interested in foreign policy. She's very interested in many things, but she was famous initially for coming from a very wealthy British family.
43:37And he's now married to a woman who is his sort of spiritual guru. And she told him before the election that he wouldn't win the election unless he married her, which he did. And she wears a fauna cap. And he's very superstitious. He believes a lot in suit sets. She's associated with a very famous shrine in Pakistan. And these Sufi shrines are incredibly important in Pakistani culture. These are people who brought Islam to that part of India in the early middle ages and who continue to have these kind of amazing magical powers. And Emron Khan's very into that. So he's been put in jail around allegations, some of which are very trivial compared to the kind of stuff that other Pakistani political leaders have been done for to do with a bottle of olive oil is one of these cases, whereas previously there's been in trouble for much, much bigger gifts.
44:27I think it was the allegation particularly that he went to Saudi and a Mohammed bin Salman gave him a series of gifts which were then pawned instead of being properly declared. But essentially what we have repeatedly in Pakistan is that your opponents get put in jail for corruption. And then if the army wants to bring you back again miraculously, the judges then suddenly declare that there isn't enough evidence and you went on a heel and you lose all your cases. Sort of nice little bridge to the election in Indonesia which is absolutely fascinating is AI. Emron Khan has been speaking from jail as it were by his supporters releasing these AI videos and sound of him speaking.
45:12So he's obviously not, he's not, he's in jail and he's not allowed to put stuff out. Just on that because it's such a big theme that we keep talking about coming into this here of elections. Also really interesting is huge support for Emron Khan in the UK and the US. You know, many people will will have picked that up in the UK talking to Paxani friends. He's got a huge aspect of support and they invested very heavily in tech and AI. So one of the reasons they pulled off this miracle of effectively his party even if they were independence getting so many votes is that you could ring up a hotline and this AI would tell you exactly who to vote for with which symbol in Emron Khan's voice in whichever seat you were in.
45:50And the military seems to have massively underestimated this and the military itself seems to be also splitting the stories that actually there were junior army officers stuffing the ballot boxes in favor of Emron Khan in Hybert Parkton while at the so -and -the -northwest frontier while other parts of the army was stuffing ballots against him in Punjab and Sindh and final thing if I wanted to be Dr. Gleum I think there is a significant chance now of a revolutionary moment in Pakistan. I think the military has massively miscalculated. I think this has shown that the military's split. There will be a lot of very angry people who felt that Emron Khan won a massive majority was cheated off it by military interference.
46:32This new government will lack legitimacy and I think this is probably one of the most risky moments Pakistan has faced in decades. And I guess the thing he has done which no leader previously has even really tried to do is to sort of break that sense of the military being the the most powerful institution in the country. Now he's in jail so you could say well they won but from jail he's managed to produce this pretty remarkable result. When we were talking about Pakistan a few weeks ago we were sort of pretty much pretty clear that now I sure if was going to be prime minister well it's not totally clear right now.
47:07And it's I think the final thing there is that his time in office was pretty disastrous. So yeah, and he called him as a mess. He's a total mess. Yeah, you know he's not an amazing pin -up for liberal democracy. He had corrupt ministers. He was pretty authoritarian. He was shutting down the media in the press when the generals told him to. So one of the clichés about Pakistan is that if he'd completed his term in office he probably wouldn't be reelected but by toppling him the military has guaranteed this amazing electoral turnout. Now Indonesia third largest democracy in the world largest Muslim majority nation and they are going on Valentine's Day to elect new president, vice president, parliament, local bodies and it's absolutely extraordinary.
47:53This is a country you know better than I do but it's 70s made up of 17 ,000 islands over spaces, largest the USA. 204 million people are going to vote. Young people make up more than half of them that young is beige between 17 and 40. You can vote at this 17. And the story we told a few weeks ago about how there's often a sort of a big shift against incumbents. Well of course in this case the incumbent, the two term president known as Jikowi, Jokouido, he can't stand. The guy who has gone from being second even third favorite to now looking like he could even win on the first ballot the first round is this guy, Prabowo Subianto who's the current defense minister but he is somebody who's I think this is his third attempt to go for the presidency.
48:42He's tried before to go for the vice presidency and he's done something he talk about a sort of smart tactic. We've talked before about the importance of running mates and I always think running mates in America are overestimated but in this case what he's done is he's taken as he's running mate the son of the outgoing president who is very very popular. The son is 36. You can't run for vice president or president unless you're 40. So how has this happened? Well his uncle happens to be running the court that decided to made this new rule that provided you already had a position of political power you could run under 40 and the two of them together have actually moved the aisle now sufficient for people to be saying that this guy looks like he's nailed off.
49:29It's again really really worrying. So Indonesia I was a British diplomat in Indonesia for two years when Indonesia became a democracy. Just on that. So this place is 17 ,000 islands and you're working for the British government now there. How do you even begin to sort of manage the coverage of a place like that? How do you even find out what's going on? It's completely amazing. I mean we had a great ambassador who said to people like me I was the second century economic and so I had a colleague sex such a political that he wanted us to get out to every province in the country but it was an amazing challenge and these places are incredibly different.
50:10So Nebale is Hindu in culture, other parts are Christian in culture, other parts are animus that includes southern Borneo, it includes enormous places like Sulawesi, it includes West Papua, which is Papua New Guinea. So it was a creation after the collapse of the Dutch East Indies, the sort of colonial collection of islands. Sukano who was this charismatic independence leader created this country. He essentially ruled the country till the early 60s when a general called Suharto took over and Suharto then ruled the country till 1998. He used to, he had three decades worth. Unbelievable and I came in as a diplomat and saw this country go through the most incredible change.
50:59Firstly there was a financial crisis that bankrupted 85 % of the companies on the stock exchange drove the economy from 7 % growth to 17 % contraction overnight. He's unbelievable. Then there were huge demonstrations in the streets. Suharto was toppled and democracy was born in Indonesia and of course this is the 90s when the US, the UK and Ireland's were incredibly optimistic about all these countries we're talking about in a direction in which Indonesia might go, Bangladesh might go, even Pakistan. We were investing a lot in supporting political parties and democracies and parliaments and all those kind of things.
51:32And Indonesia initially seemed very very positive. So there were a series of presidents from different parties. One general came back in but then Jacoey who'd done a good technocratic job as a mayor and a governor came in and the signs of trouble began to come when Jacoey started talking about standing for third term on constitution. And now we have this very weird situation because Prabowo was the villain, the sort of bogeyman in 98. He ran the special forces and he also very conveniently married Suharto's daughter which is probably partly what letter is, his rise up the military ranks. And then he got charged with all sorts of things to do with human rights and some students who were killed and trying to sort of quail the uprising against Suharto.
52:19Then he went off and live in exile. Well, so the big moment, and I remember the moment because I was sitting in the embassy and a lot of the senior staffers away when these demonstrations of street turned into rumours that Suharto was about to step down on the cabinet and that Prabowo was going to throw coup d 'état. So there were really serious stories about Prabowo moving military units around and trying to take over. Yeah, he was accused of stirring the whole thing up, wasn't he? Yeah. And he didn't succeed in taking over them when his father -in -law stepped down after 30 years of dictator.
52:48And then as you say, he's been running for election ever since. And one of the problems is that the first couple of times he ran, you know, Democrats were able to say this is a really bad man with a bad record. But of course, by the time you're running third fourth time, it's not new news anymore. And he just says, well, that's an old story we've moved on from that. And he's also done this bizarre thing, but of course, resonates with a lot of populists around the world, which is he's reinvented himself as a bad dad dancer. So he does all these movies where he does this really embarrassing crap dancing.
53:21And it's hugely appealing to younger people to working class voters. I mean, I made the point earlier on that there's a massive, massive number of young people. So they have no sort of personal sense of that history. He has reinvented himself as this kind of cuddly, vancular, even grandfatherly figure. And of course, with the sun of the outgoing president alongside him, who's actually very popular, the outgoing president remains very popular. His sun reflects that. So they become quite a formidable team. And maybe we should put in the newsletter, there's some amazing footage that I was watching the other night when I was just era of these rallies that they've been doing together in huge sports stadiums with sort of tens of thousands of people coming out.
54:05That story of the human rights abuses, there was the whole thing about the abductions of these students. I think that 13 of them are still missing. Their parents are never stopped protesting against this guy. He was also inclusive and serious human rights abuses in Timor Leicester when they were Indonesians were occupying that. And this is relatively recent. The big thing has been since he picked these running mates, he's now looking like it's entirely possible he could get over 50 % in the first ballot, which would be an incredible achievement. Yeah, I think he's very, very likely to win. It's very difficult to beat him now.
54:40And he's a really dangerous figure. I mean, you know, this is the full -on populist authoritarian leader. This is a guy, Prabowo has openly talked against direct elections. He's openly attacks the press. I mean, and the courts. And the courts. So if you are somebody who cares about Indonesian democracy, you will be voting against him, but he will portray those people as sort of out of touch urban liberal elite. He has a huge support amongst young people and poorer voters. And it's the same story again that we hear again and again, but this time in a country of 280 million people. And of course, the other sort of really strange element is that so Jacobi's son is standing alongside Prabowo.
55:22And meanwhile, Jacobi's own party, where she has been running for years and years and years, they have a different candidate who he is now because his son is involved essentially. He's also to come out and said anything that positive about Prabowo, even though he was his defence minister for four years. But essentially means that the very popular outgoing president has thought to be backing a party that is going to defeat his own party, who are now basically saying this guy's can have completely led us down. Yeah. And Prabowo, I mean, we talk a lot about corruption in Pakistan. It's the big theme in Indonesia too.
55:57Prabowo is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The Suhato family that he's obviously married into are worth billions. And he benefited enormously as defence minister from contracts. And then I think maybe to wrap up, I mean, you keep bringing us back to the way that social media and AI is changing the whole world. I mean, you can see this. There's a lot of these buzzer accounts, which fake accounts promoting messages. There's a Ministry of Communications Task Force has been set up supposedly to try to moderate these accounts. But of course, it tends to come down on the side of Jacobi and his son and against the opposition.
56:31You can see these hashtags that suddenly sort of flash up in Indonesia. So there was one that was called Mahasi Swabha Jarak, which means students on the run. And then there was one called Saya Barsama Jacobi, which means I'm with Jacobi on the other side that came up last year. But these are elections in these huge countries, in Pakistan, Indonesia, Pakistan again over 200 million people, Bangladesh which are increasingly formed by what's happening on social media and through AI. And the other sort of big thing that I guess is worth to reflect you all as well is that China, of course, again, very, very relevant to this one because Indonesian China were pretty much during most of the Cold War.
57:10They didn't get on at all. China has been a very important part of the economic development of Indonesia. But they say they want to stay very, very neutral between China and the US as the two great powers. But again, China is watching this very, very, very closely. No, it's a fascinating, fascinating country. And the story of this election has been remarkable. And to see the the tricky pool in getting Jacobi's son stand alongside him. That was a game changer. Good. Well, thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Arster. And see you next time. See you soon.
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