220. Sunak's by-election disaster, Reform UK gains momentum, and political crisis in Rochdale

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1:19Well, welcome to Snorri and Emergency, but an unexpected Restless Politics. This is Alice to Hear. Rory's on a ski slope at the moment, but here I've just recorded half an hour yabbering away together on YouTube, which you're about to hear. And we do two things. First of all, we give you the details of our pre -election tour. Assuming the election is going to be the autumn. And we tell you where and when and most importantly how to get tickets. And also we're going to react to these two bi -election results overnight where the tours have been absolutely splattered by labour. So yeah, hope to see lots of you on the tour in October, the sixth in Brighton, the ninth in Birmingham, the eleventh, twice in Manchester, 12 in Glasgow, 14th in Cardiff and 15th, terrifying the O2 arena.

2:11So I hope to see lots of you there. Hope you enjoy the chat that we're about to have. You can get tickets by the way, frankly wherever you can find Restless Politics online, social media, Twitter, dresses, politics or calm anywhere.

2:28We're here live, which means that, you know, we can't give mistakes. You can't ask me to show my trousers or anything on the... Roy, have you already seen them as you took your seat? I'm definitely going to get people to take it for ridiculous trousers, which I don't think even the tops of the tops would wear those on the ski slopes. Anyway, we're here to discuss this tremendous labour victories in the bi -election, which is very interesting in terms of lots of things, actually. Terms of what that might mean for how labour does in the election and in terms of what it says about Parliament. But we're also here on the Alistair to encourage people not to listen to us at all, but to take advantage of the fact that the live sale of our tickets has just started.

3:10So very quickly before I hand back to you, this is our October election tour. So to remind people, this is our big live tour, which is going to be doing the UK and US selections, because obviously we're betting hard that the UK elections are going to be not in May. So 6th October, Brighton Centre, 9th Birmingham, Utilator Arena, 11th Manchester Road to Apollo, twice, 12th Glasgow, SEC Armadillo, Q jokes about Amarillo, 14th October, Cardiff Utilator Arena, and then the big one in London is we're going to do the 02 in the round. So basically, anybody listening to this live show, please get off this live show and book your tickets.

3:50No, no, no, no, no, no, you can do both of these. You can do both. You can have a phone, you can have a laptop, you can have a friend or a colleague. I'd love to be able to get the data for how many people watching this are actually at work. Maybe you can tell us, by the way, in the very private chat, which no one else will see, I'm sure. So I think people should, yeah, I hope people do come. We've actually, because we put tickets up for members only, I think we've sold well over 10 % of the whole lot already. And by the way, Manchester and London appear to be where we have the biggest following, looking at the sales.

4:31So although we've had a big response, nice response from Cardiff, a couple of Welsh comments in the thing. And somebody who describes himself as Stormy Daniels, but is presumably not Stormy Daniels, so as I just got into bed, this is worth staying awake for. And it would be Stormy Daniels. I mean, Stormy Daniels, presumably, goes to bed quite a lot. Yeah, yeah, that's true. This looks like Sami Stormy Daniels with a beard looking at photograph. Sam Wilkins, this bloody queue for 02 tickets, it's like I'm booking to see Taylor Swift. There we are. There's a great compliment for you now. Let's get to the serious stuff, though.

5:03I'm going to just explain people what happened, and then we're going to hand over to you for comments. So there've been two biotexions and biotexions of seats, which the conservatives held. And biotexions are obviously things that are sitting government wants to avoid if it's all possible. But in this case, they lost two MPs for different reasons. In Wellingborough, they lost Peter Bone, who they had to fire from the party or decided to fire from the party because there was some very serious allegations against him for sexual misconduct and bullying. And he was then removed by something called a recall petition, which maybe we should talk about a little bit because it's a really interesting development.

5:40The British Constitution allows you to recall your MP. The other seat, which is Kingswood, was an MP called Chris Skidmore, who went into parliament with me in 2010 and whose seat was being abolished in the election and then decided two months later that he was going to resign on principle about the government's environmental policy and fracking. So in both cases, biotexions held in both cases, Labour come home with an extraordinary result, but even more dramatic, I guess, in Wellingborough, over to you. So looking, by the way, at the comments, most people do seem to be at work. So I hope their employers aren't all looking at them over their shoulders.

6:16They listen to us. As you know, you are one of those people who thinks that the Tories of Lost and the Kierstamer is in office, sort of, you know, all over by the shouting. Even with this result, I think it's important to keep a few things in perspective. That being said, I think they're pretty disastrous for the Tories. The swing in Wellingborough, and admittedly, it is a very odd scene when you have an MP kicked out and his partner stands in, so it takes the candidacy. Rishi Surya and I didn't get in the chair. Yeah, just on that one, I mean, exactly. So Peter Boen, having been re -called for Syresexalmas conduct towards one of his male parliamentary assistants and having divorced his wife, then decided to encourage his current girlfriend to run in the seat.

7:09So there's a background here. And of course, part of the background is that recall petition was huge news locally. So there will be many people who are voting against Peter Boen, but it's produced an astonishing result. It's the swing, I think, of 18 ,000 second largest swing ever recorded in history. Well, it's the biggest to Labour. It's 28 .5%. It's the biggest to Labour this parliament, the biggest before that was Tamworth, which was 23 .7. I have to say that the biggest ever was a very happy day in my life. It was Dudley in 1994. And I can remember this very, very well because we were in the United States of America.

7:47Tony Blair was speaking at a dinner in the ambassador's residence, that very grand building in Washington. And we got the result in. I got Fiona Gordon, who was our regional director, Tom with the result. And I slipped into C. Tony at this dinner. You have to be able to have a laugh with your boss every now and again. And I just slipped in as he was sort of pontificating about the future of the world and be very grand with all these senators and congresspeople and military bods and what have you. And I tapped you on the shoulder and you looked up and I did my sort of sad eyes look. And I said, not as good as we thought.

8:27And he said, what do you mean? Is it going to be a recount? And for five seconds, I absolutely had it. But then I sort of burst out laughing. It gave up the result. He did no tell me straight away, get on to them and say, no complacency, hard work goes on, etc. But it is a massive swing. If this swing happened latchley, Rory, in a general election, how many seats do you think the Tories would have? I don't know. What's the answer? Four. One, two, three, four. Four seats. If this happened nationally, the Tories would have only four seats left in Parliament. Correct. Correct. That's why people should not sort of imagine that that's going to happen.

9:12Now, on the turnout, I mean, turnout is pretty low, 37 % in one, 38 % in the other. So almost two thirds of people didn't vote. And again, here's where I would be a bit cautious if I was Labour. A lot of those people, I suspect, are people who ultimately will vote Tories. But the other line that's being spun is about reform. And there was a very interesting survey done of people who, if people say, if the Tories for reform voters only under a third who say they will vote reform, say if reform weren't there, who would you vote for? Only a third say Tories. So this is a society of this reform and together is nonsense.

9:53So this is really critical for us because for the Conservative Party, particularly when Richie Sunack loses the next election and it will be a significant loss. There will be a big push from people like Swella Bravaman to take the party to the right. But there's also going to be a lot of action over the next few months, something I've just been talking to my friend and hero David Gork about to push the party to the right. So there will be people inside the Conservative Party looking at these by -election results and saying that that vote taken by reform, which is the ex sort of Brexit you kept party.

10:25If those votes had gone to the Tories, they would have won. And of course, as you pointed out, there are two problems with that. One of them is all those votes wouldn't have gone to the Tories. And number two, chasing those votes would put the Tories into a more and more strange right -wing position. And we'll tempt them, for example, to do stuff on immigration. And as we've discussed, that's a crazy thing to do because there's absolutely no way they're going to be able to make any difference to immigration between now and the election. Yeah. You've said before that the economic situation is so grim that it's hard to see how the Tories can pull this round.

10:56And so yesterday was very interesting. I mean, there used to be that you couldn't do big political news on by -election days. And that whole perda thing, the rules seem to have completely gone along with a lot of the other sort of standards that we used to take for granted. But so yesterday you had a situation where Jeremy Hunt the Chancellor was out there talking about tax cuts. And meanwhile, the official data came out showing that the economy was officially in recession. And I think this tax cut thing, I think the Tories are trapped in a historical view of the world that goes back to Margaret Thatcher.

11:27They just think that tax cuts are the answer to all their problems. I think they're the answer to their problems politically with this ramp, this wealth, significant ramp in the Conservative Parliamentary Party. MPs who think they have to be able to say tax cuts. But I actually think for Labour, they can win an argument that says that tax cuts at this time are the wrong thing to do for the economy. Exactly. And I think people like me who are more on the left of the Conservative Party would complete agree with you. That the reality is that public services are shot to pieces. And this idea that they're going to be able to cut public services more public spending more, which is one of the things that's going on with this tax cut discussion.

12:06So there's a story from the tax cutters that because interest rates are coming down, it's going to be a little bit more money for the government. They're then going to put five billion in to try to stop a rise on fuel duty. And then they're going to talk about more cuts to public services in order to create room for tax cuts. But it's a really daft thing to do. What we need is more investment in public services at the moment, not less. And the strategy for growth. Now, just to try to look at some of the hundreds of questions that are coming in, Roy. You said at the start, oh, nobody apart from my mum will be watching.

12:36There are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of questions. But quite in a how many of these are my mum under different names? Well, I don't think your mum would be dishonest like that. I really think so. Thank you, Dr. Ronan. By the way, Stormy Daniels has confirmed that Stormy Daniels is the name of a dog. OK. And Stormy is not in bed because she's in Sydney and it's 9pm. OK. But she's gone. I often go to bed at 9pm. So one of the themes that's coming through in the questions is, will this emboldened labour? I hope so as the answer to that. I think that labour still needs to give people more of what a friend of mine calls the song to whistle to as they go to the ballot box.

13:18At the moment, I think you're getting an awful lot of, I hate the Tories. I want to get rid of the Tories. And I think labour really can now put the foot down on the gas in terms of an offer. And by the way, it doesn't all have to be the offer that says more money for this, more money for that. I am more convinced than ever after all sorts of stuff that's been going on, not least the stuff that led to example for the election in Wellingborough. I really do think that there's a massive campaign to be fought on standards in public life and what sort of country we are, what sort of politics we want.

13:52And I think that, interestingly, I didn't catch it, but I saw in social media, Kierstharmer on the media this morning saying that he lost a lot of respect. He felt his relationship, we really soon had changed last week. On the back of the Prime Minister's question, it's changed about when he said he doesn't even know what a woman is and when Browne Gray's mother was up there. And you're seeing so much, it was a very good example yesterday. The Tories put out a completely misleading clip of something that Siddi Khan said. And I just think the public are ready. I think they're ready to say, oh, you know, bugger off with your tax cuts.

14:28I think they're ready to say we want real change. And clearly at the moment, Labour is the only party that could form another government. So that has to come from Labour. But I think Labour have to offer more than they are at the moment. Yeah, I really like to get a landslide, which is there for the take -o. And I think not just to get a landslide, but also I always felt in government that if you've said things before the election and ideally put them in the manifesto, but at least made big public statements, it gives you so much more momentum when you come into government to get those things done.

14:59Because the whole civil service is ready for you. They've read those stuff in the manifesto. They've heard what they've said. They get the point. They will have prepared it and as you as a minister come in and say this is where they want to go, they don't feel as they often will. If you suddenly change your mind after the election, oh my goodness, how's this going to work, how are we going to do this, etc. So this is going to give you anything to send. We've had a lot of good questions about reform. I mean, I think I've counted 10 and I'm sorry, I'm not reading them all out. But I want to pick up chicken pie one, one, three, Ben Habib, only got 13 % after massive campaigning.

15:29Not that impressive. After all the effort they put in, I'd expect 15 % plus. So this is to do with this right -wing UKIP reform vote. It's not that impressive actually. Compared to where the party was in 2015, it's not doing that strongly. So quite a lot of people asking questions are worried about reform. But I think you could tell a story that in some ways, as we've discussed in the podcast before, the kind of populist right hasn't really got going, yes, in Britain and the way that it has in other European countries. One other thing you raised, which I wanted to do a little bit of an explainer on, because I think it relates to something you've been talking about, which is standards and public life, which are these record petitions.

16:08So often we get questions and question time on what can we do to get rid of our MPs. And this, you couldn't in the past, but in 2015, the Conservative Lib Dem coalition brought in a new bill, and parliament, which I voted for, to allow people to recall MPs. And what happens is if the MP gets a criminal conviction, or is, or cheats on their expenses, or is suspended for more than 10 sitting days from the House of Commons, the members of constituency, the normal voters in constituency, get to sign up to a petition. And if more than 10 % of people vote for this petition, then a recall by election has been called.

16:45And the nice thing about it is that it's actually happened to almost every party, North Antrim, against in -pays the DUP, which didn't make it through. Peter Bra, where Labour, Fiona, on a Sania, who'd been lying and cheating on speeding offences in her cars, got recalled and lost the by -election. Brecklen and Ratner show where a Conservative was putting in false invoices to cheap on his expenses, and then Rutherglen, where we had an SMP MP, who'd been breaking COVID restrictions. And some of these things will be familiar to Lesnar's, because we've covered a lot of these by -elections on the show.

17:19And this Wellington election is a yes, another example of this quite interesting thing, which has meant four MPs already not rid off through this new procedure. Also, I think it's worth pointing out, and people do sort of give a kiss on a quite hard time. This is now seven by -election wins at Labour have picked up. It's admittedly helped by the Choriz and by the circumstances of the by -elections, but you then do have to have the Labour campaign that goes out and says that we are, if you like, the only credible party that can take over them. The Lib Dems have won some. What do you make of the Lib Dems performance in this?

17:51Do you think they're just sort of focusing only on those seats that they think they can win? I mean, I can't quite work out what's going on with the Lib Dems. Well, I'm interested. I mean, I think I don't understand. And I don't understand what's happened to the Lib Dems, really. I mean, they just don't seem to me to have the energy or votes that you would expect when people are so disgusted by the Conservatives, and where a lot of people are in the centre ground. I mean, Labour's taken a lot of those centre ground voters, which I think if the Lib Dems had been more agile, they would have been able to go.

18:22One place, maybe, to watch could be, is there any chance that something interesting will happen in Rochdale, just remind listeners Rochdale's the bi -election coming, where there's a Labour MP running. And actually, there's been quite an interesting question about that. We've had Samuel Dunn said, can Alice relabber it when he's said about George Galloway in his Instagram live, and he gets a chance, George Galloway is a candidate in this forthcoming bi -election. Technical question, though. Question about whether Ed Balls defending the Labour candidate shows something about the split between Corbinistas and non -Corbinistas and Labour?

18:55I don't know about that. I look, as early the candidate was taped, we talked about this on the Q &A yesterday, was taped making some, you know, but basically buying into this conspiracy theory that the Israelis knew that the Hamas attack was going to happen, and they let it happen, so they could sort of do what they're doing now in Gaza. Because the nominations had closed, Labour sort of said they had no alternative, but to sort of, he stays on the ticket as it were, but now they've basically said they're not going to campaign for it. Now, he's still a candidate. George Galloway is, I mean, my first experience of encounters with George Galloway were way back in the 80s when I was a journalist, and he was in charge of a charity called War on Want, an all sorts of kind of shenanigans went on there, and I was on the mirror, did a big story about some of the sort of stuff related to expenses and so forth.

19:47And then I guess my, you know, he's a formidable kind of orator and, and rabble rouser Galloway. And quite funny, I guess, he's, I mean, I remember seeing him take on Christopher Hitchens and take on the US senators, am I right? Yeah, he's a, he's a, he's a, he's a, he's a, he's a sort of very eloquent rabble rouser, and he's, you know, we talk a lot about populism, he goes into places. I don't, I don't, I'm sure he believes a lot of things, but he exploits the situations. And this is a classic situation where he can go in as he's done in violations previously. But my, my main experience of Galloway was, was, do you remember an MP called Rupert Allison?

20:26Yeah, yeah, who read, who wrote about spies like right? Yeah, he wrote spine novels. Yeah. And he, he had an absolute sort of obsession with me at a various point when I was in the mirror and he ended up taking me to court over a story that I hadn't even written. And it was a very, very bizarre experience. But if I put it like this, his only witness was George Galloway. So, and Rupert Allison was a Tory MP and he was brilliant. And he was a Tory MP. George Galloway at the time was, was, I think, was a labor MP. And he, he likewise, I don't know why I attract these people, Rory, who despised me so much.

20:59But just as Allison despised me, so did Galloway. But it's quite something. How can I put this without reopening the whole thing? It's quite something to sit in court and watch somebody describe scenes which you know because they're about you just did not happen. It's quite a weird feeling that. But anyway, he, anything could happen in this violation because of course, what you might expect is the, well, labor of pull the plug on their candidates. So therefore, the Lib Dems might pick up, but there doesn't seem to be much sign of that. So I think it kind of is anything. Put it this way, I don't think on March the 1st, the day after this violation, I don't think labor will be celebrating quite as much as they are today.

21:41Yeah, whatever the result is going to be a mess. Sam Ziggs, our education 1119 says, Rochdale has three X -labor people running, but not with labor support. I mean, it's pretty weird because the Simon Danchuk, who's the candidate for reform was a labor MP. George Galloway was a labor MP and then we have the guy who was until two days ago, the official labor candidates, has three X -labor candidates running. Before we leave the Lib Dems, I wonder if that isn't the moment for you to show those who are watching on YouTube, the Lib Dem trousers that you're wearing in the industry. So David Ventsch's media, Rory Looksike, he's in a ski shally.

22:17It is true. I've been doing something called ski touring where I climb up hills and ski down and I was actually saved from having to do it this morning by the emergency podcast, but I've been doing it last two days. So I'm about to go out after you and here we are. Oh my God, they're not, they're not Lib Dem, they're Scottish nationalist. What is that? Yeah, like what? That is an S -Ed P. I've never skied in my life, Rory. This is probably very wrong, but I've always seen it a little bit as a sort of public schoolboy thing. Yeah, it's part of, no, I think I think I don't, I don't think that's still true, but I think I can, I can see why you might think that.

22:50Now in the comments, before we go on, in the comments, we're getting a lot from the restist politics team. So, election tour ticket is selling quickly, follow the link in the description to buy yours now. Now, and by the way, on the pricing, please don't shout at us. Hopefully, it's not, somebody says, this is like Taylor Swift prices. No, it's not. Have you ever been to a Taylor Swift show? Now, let's just give them a repeat. Brian the Centre, October 6th, Birmingham, Utility Arena, the ninth, Manchester, twice on the 11th. Twice. Glasgow, the 12th of October, Cardiff, the 14th. And I hope this will put a stock to the people who say we never go to Wales.

23:28I was in Wales two weeks ago. And the O2, I'm slightly, I'm slightly panicking about the O2, I must admit. Yeah, just like panic about that. But no, no problem. We'll definitely, filling the O2 will be very funny. Sam, Sam is exact education. If people come to the O2, I promise to, no, actually, it's going to put people off. I say I'm going to do a dance, isn't it? But you might do some music. I might do some music. I might do music. Yeah, yeah, yeah. What would I never get you to do is sing? I keep trying to, I keep trying to say, you know, this is the way to the armadillo. Exactly. That's, that's, that's, I'm not good to see.