227. Biden’s aid port in Gaza, Tory defection to Reform, and a mole at the top of the IRA

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0:50Welcome to the Restus Politics with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alistair Campbell. And today, a lot to get through here in Methodist Central Hall about which a bit more later, but we are going to be doing Joe Biden's State of the Union address. Garza, we're going to be doing the UK budget. We're going to be doing the Portuguese elections and we're going to be doing steak knife about which you've been what's happening. Let's tell us about steak knife. Double agent, IRA, hitman, IRA interrogator of possible touts, informants. But there's a pretty remarkable report into his activities. So yeah, just to say to listeners that if you hear the occasional background noise, it's rather an old and creaking building this.

1:33But Rory and I've just been talking to 1200 politics A level students. Unlike Richard Tyson and Jacob Reese Mog, we didn't get booed. In fact, there were other warm and friendly and they have some absolutely brilliant questions. Yeah. Well, I'd love to talk a little bit more about that. But let's look back to that at the end. But let's start with Joe Biden, the State of the Union address. So those of you like us that are Uber geeks and politics can see the full thing on C -SPAN. He comes in, he spends probably about 20 minutes pumping hands, saying hello to people in the Congress. So just to remind people, this is the present United States, speaking to assembled senators and member of the House of Representatives.

2:14He then gives a speech which is almost an hour long. And then he spends another half hour working his way around the floor. So the first thing, I don't know, it's a pretty low bar, but it's an important thing to establish for people who think he's actually totally medically incapacitated or seen are, is that he's able to push on through two hours of pretty serious handshaking and speaking. He delivered the speech fine. I mean, he didn't deviate off the script. There were no great errors, despite the delights of Trump and Republicans to try to find any elements of his age. And it was a fine patriotic American speech.

2:54And there were bits of it that could only be in America. So one of the things he announced in it, which we'll come back to, is the announcement that the US is going to create essentially a temporary port in Gaza. You can't really imagine the British Prime Minister just standing up and saying, we're going to create a temporary port in Gaza. But he also touched on domestic issues. He dealt with immigration. He dealt with his investment in the IRA, which is their Reconstruction Act, not the IRA. We're going to talk about later on the show. But I wanted to come to you first, because you've actually been in the hearts of this, because George Irvingt invited Tony Blair to travel with him in the car, sit next to him in the state of the union.

3:34And Tony Blair was in the position that I think I saw the Swedish Prime Minister in when I watched the state of the union, which is sitting right next to the president's wife. So tell us what that's like. Well, it's a big, big, big deal, the state of the union. It does get for a political event, you know, very, very big viewing figures. People sort of know it's happening. It's one of those rare events in the political calendar that does give you the opportunity to cut through. And I think that's why it mattered so much to Joe Biden. And I agree, I thought it was a good speech, and I thought he delivered it very, very well.

4:06And I think he will have certainly for the short term, medium term, put to bed, all this kind of raging debate about him being, you know, demented and seen on all that nonsense that the Republicans push out there. It doesn't mean his age won't still be an issue. No, it's really interesting actually, because I knew we're going to talk about this, I looked at my, my dire is this morning. And so this, I completely forgotten that it was, it was literally in the wake of September 11th. So on Monday, September the 17th, I recorded in my diary, going up to the flat to C .T .B. to tell him that the US was suggesting that he went to Congress with Bush.

4:40Oh, yeah, said T .B. Thinking I was joking. I said it was serious, and I was worried about it because it would play into the whole poodle thing. And the poodle thing was going even within six days and I never know. And the poodle thing was going from day one, as a sort of, you know, Tony Blair will just do what George Bush tells him to et cetera. John Kerr, you will know now in the House of Laws permanent secretary foreign office, cool to say, it would be ghastly. The whole thing would become an orgy of US patriotism with T .B. in a kind of nodal, log role. Now, now that's quite interesting, because I did slightly worry about that with the Swedish Prime Minister when I was watching him.

5:13I did think this is fine, but the Swedish Prime Minister is being made to stand up and applaud every part of the domestic programme at Joe Biden. So of course, he stood up very happily when Joe Biden, the reason he was there is he was Sweden being welcomed into NATO. So of course, he stood up and he was thanked for Sweden joining NATO. But he then had to stand up and for everything, every infrastructure investment, what he's doing with the police, what he thinks about. Well, if I go to the loud Thursday, the September the 20th, so we'd gone out to Washington with our all hours with Bush and his team and talking about this down the other.

5:46And if you remember what happened, Bush couldn't travel. Bush wasn't allowed to travel in the immediate aftermath of all the security. So Tonya was doing a lot of the traveling and we were going all over the place. Anyway, here we go. Up to the bush flat before heading out to Congress. Bush and T .B. traveled together in the presidential limo, which again is quite a big deal. Jonathan Powell, David Manning, Christopher Merley and Baster and I were taken up to the first ladies box with the press gallery to our right and the Congress down below. T .B. came in with Laura, Bush. Here's one for you.

6:18Rudy Giuliani, Mayor of New York, George Patarki, Governor of New York, and the guy who was going to the new Homeland Security Minister. Now this is me. Tom Ridge, right? Tom Ridge, yeah. It always looks, I thought it looks, but elderly. But a real reminder again, for listeners who not followed the changes. It's Rudy Giuliani who is now, you know, villain number one. Yeah. Conspiracy theorist number one. Oh, that was extraordinary hero, wasn't he? So they obviously decided that they wanted Giuliani right up there with Laura Bush. Tony was sitting next to Laura Bush. I didn't say I'm not really enjoying this very much at all.

6:51It was all a bit polypuro, standing evations constantly interrupting the speech, rapturous applause for good lines off the radar if they were really good. Because T .B. was next to Laura, he had to get up, this is your Swedish Prime Minister point. He had to get up every single time that she did, which was every time everybody else did. Angie Hunter was watching me from the other side of the gallery and said later I looked like a swaddle of lemon. It was grim, poodle -ology gone mad. But it was an excellent speech for all that very well crafted. We met up with Bush afterwards and he gave T .B.

7:23an enormous bear hug. This was getting worse. He was very warm to me, but I couldn't wait to get out. So we were. It's like a sort of massive stage event. But I see what I watched by and I tell you what was really interesting was so there you see the vice president of the speaker sitting directly behind the president. You had by and people here and the Republicans there. What I remember from the George Bush speech was that there was a lot more what I would call bipartisan standing evations. When it came to stuff like national security, they were all getting up. Whereas I noticed that Biden was getting heckled a bit.

7:58And I thought he dealt with the egg was pretty well. But I get the sense that the place is much less collegiate maybe than it was. Well, it became, I mean, for a state of the union address, I don't know the history of these things, but of course it's very political. I mean, the boundary between him as the president and I'm pleaded. And you actually had Nancy Pelosi chanting four more years, four more years, four years, which obviously no Republicans can stand up and endorse. So the more he attacked Trump, the more predecessor in my predecessor. He didn't name it. That's what I was quite cute. I also thought I was seeing it in the context of having been yesterday to King's Cross to the Lightroom, where there's this amazing show on the US space missions to the moon, narrated by Tom Hanks.

8:42And it's this enormous room with screens all around you. So you can see 40 images at a time. And I was watching it with my mother and all who's an American. And I hope she doesn't mind me saying she was crying during it. She was so moved by Kennedy's speech, by the hope, the optimism, the ambition of that period. What did he announce at a state of union speech? No, he announced it in a speech, I think, somewhere in Texas. He makes a joke about a Texan football team at the time. But I think for her, there was the sense that this was America at its most optimistic. And this was, you know, Kennedy essentially saying we're going to travel to the moon because we can, but then connecting it to a mission of peace and hope and America changing the world.

9:24And through her eyes, I got a sense of sort of deep, deep disappointment, a sense of an American dream, you know, becoming more difficult. Her feeling that she can no longer respond. I mean, obviously she's a very strong Biden supporter, but not being able to respond to America in the way that she felt that she was able to under Kennedy. And what I suppose I'm saying is please go and see the show because it's the most incredible way of seeing the moon landings and the images for the moon, but also as a way of understanding the 20th century in the United States. I mean, the speaker Johnson, I mean, Angie said that I looked like I swatted a lemon.

9:59He looked like he swatted a lemon. When he did applaud, it was very kind of perventory. I noticed he said afterwards that he felt that it was fine on the foreign policy stuff, but the rest of it was all too kind of political. But I think it's quite hard at the moment for if you're Joe Biden, you have all this stuff being pumped out against you the whole time. Trump absolutely kind of, you know, on it the whole time. I thought he dealt with it pretty well. I mean, and I got a sense there of what his narrative going into the election is going to be. And what was that? Well, I think it was he's owning the age.

10:31He's owning the age and turning it into experience and values and believing in America and knowing America. Yeah, there was just on that one nice line and that people who haven't watched it, he points out he was elected Senate of 29 and he used to be refused access to elevators because people thought he was too young to do so. He's been too young, I've been too old, but I know America. I thought he focused a lot on the future, big challenges. And I thought he was clear where he's going to come at Trump. It's about the dishonesty, it's about the chaos, it's about the lack of values. I saw some of the Republicans getting very agitated when he was reminding them, that line, one of my best lines in the speech, I thought, Reagan said to Gorbachev, tear down that wall and Trump says to Putin, do whatever the hell you like.

11:15And they got very angry at that. And they had to repeat, I'm quoting, he said that. Yeah, he said that. Republican president said that and it's wrong and it's unacceptable. And of course, he also challenged him about the attack on the Capitol. I mean, he was also very embarrassing because he said, you guys all sat there, you know what happened. And of course, a lot of those people sitting there have since sort of taken Trump side on that. Well, we had the, if people don't follow, there's something called the Lincoln project, which is less of a pro -Biden thing than a very anti -Trump thing. But they put out a squeak, which was, it's a spoof of Trump.

11:49And Trump is making a speech, basically saying what he really thinks of all these Republican senators and Congressmen and women who support him when he knows they hate him. And it's very, very well done because he's just a section, a selection while he's speaking of pictures of these people, most of whom not known to brought it to us. Is this a deep fake AI attack? Well, the only thing is I'd say, I'd say it's satire. It is a bit deep fake, but it's obvious. The reason I think it's not deep fake is obvious. It's obvious. It's obvious. I hope it's obvious. It is obvious. You should watch it. We should put it in the show in the news later.

12:28It's obvious. And I see the other thing that happened on the back of it. He did a very good, the next day he was out and about, Biden. He also did a very good, kind of short video projecting himself based on the themes of the speech, but then sort of, and he then was calling Trump Trump. He didn't call him Trump in the speech, but he was then saying, you know, so I led us through COVID. He kind of lied his way through COVID. I mean, he was just kind of doing these very, very strong attack lines and using quite a lot of humor as well and taking the Mickey out of Trump, which I think is quite effective way of getting to him.

13:00One of the reasons maybe for the strategy that you've laid out is that the opinion polls show that the election seems to be about what people think about Trump, not what people think about Biden. That's very, very unusual with an incumbent president. So incumbent president like Obama, when he ran 67 % of people said what they were voting on was Obama's record in office. When George W. Bush ran overwhelming like 67 % it's George W. Bush not go that they're voting on when go was running against George W. Bush. This time it's 67 % about Trump, not about Biden. And that breaks down pretty half and half.

13:38Key demographics, Republican and Democrat 62 % say they're voting because they're pro Trump on one side and 64 % say they're voting because they're against Trump. And only a third mentioned Biden on either side. Wow. So it's very unusual. I mean, it's a Trump election, not a Biden election. Biden's personality hasn't yet come through enough. I mean, don't be get Biden. Biden is so well known as a politician. Trump's a very well known figure and was president. But Trump is kind of known as Trump. The views about him and less about him as a politician is about him as a human being. I think the other thing that came through with Biden was the guy does have even when he bumped into that awful what's the name, Marjorie Taylor Greene, when she was there with her MAGA hat on and he sort of did this very funny kind of eye popping look.

14:25He's got a lovely way with people. So the next day Trump did a speech where he was taking the Mickey out of Joe Biden's stutter. He's got a slight, he's still got a slight stutter. You see it occasionally. And so Trump was doing this, you know, Joe. And of course it reminded people of the time when Trump took the Mickey out of a disabled journalist. And like within minutes, the Democrats are good at this film where the top half was Trump doing his taking the Mickey. And on the bottom half was an encounter that Biden had a few years ago with a kid who stammered and telling him, you know, just show.

14:57So I think they are going to try to get Biden's personality on the ballot. But there are problems. So if you look at what's happened, Biden has gone quite quickly from disapproving 50 % of the population, approving 43 % to disapproving 50 %, 6 % approving 38%. So he's gone from a 7 .1 % net disapproval to an 18 .2 % net disapproval. And as I think we've discussed on the podcast before, it's particularly dramatic among Hispanic voters and Black voters. Traditionally, those were voters who absolutely will guarantee to vote overwhelmingly. Democratic Party, they were a very important part of Biden's last victory.

15:40But Hispanic voters have gone from 24 % polling as voting Republican to 40 % and Black voters from 4 % up to 20 % now considering voting for Trump. And so I think that's partly about if you've defined Biden's mission, let me try to define Trump. I think Trump is appealing to people who think it's about economics and cost of living who aren't very liberal, not very interested in liberal chat, who are dissatisfied with politics and who want fundamental change and who like him on crime and immigration. Interestingly, the Democrats tried to say when Trump started talking about crime and immigration, they said, this is a big mistake.

16:18It's a dog whistle to his right wing base. Actually, a lot of African -American and Hispanic voters have responded well to Trump talk about it. And within the speech, Biden was doing the tough on crime stuff. And needing to. Yeah. Because I think that is very signal that that's been a weakness. I mean, another thing on the polling. So when they fought it out last time, Biden had a 50 point lead amongst non -white Americans. And it's now down to a 12 point lead, 56 to 44. Now, you can get some of that back, but that does show a shift. I mean, look, you and I find it hard to imagine how anybody can vote Trump.

16:55I think most people outside America do. When I was in Australia, I couldn't, I didn't mean a single person who thought he was anything other than hideous the thought he might come back. But there's something going on in the American debate. I'll also tell you the other thing I saw. I mean, it was absolutely horrific. There was a Republican party event. I think it was in Kansas, where they had this life -size dummy effigy of Joe Biden, where people were just queuing to punch it, kick it, hit it with hammers. I mean, it's just nuts stuff that's going on there. And I think he was, remember, Michelle Obama's famous line, you know, when they go low, we go high.

17:26There was an element of that in Biden's speech, but it was also pretty tough. Yeah. And this is why I like to, I said this before about Biden in the first campaign when he beat Trump. He does have this ability, which I don't think I think most people don't have, which is that not to let Trump get too close inside his head. That was not a guy who was scared of Trump. No. That was a guy who was knocking him all over the place. No. And there's something very sincere. I was, you could pick up on C -Span a little bit of those chats that he's having after his speech. Oh, he's good at that. The Romania and Ambassador and stuff.

17:56Yeah. But there was a little moment where he just said to someone, you know, it's just, this guy's terrible. Just be terrible for a democracy if you took over. And there's a sense of kind of earnestness and sincerity there, which but still, still, unfortunately, the March 7th polls, he's lagging by five percentage points. Yeah. Yeah. Amongst registered voters, Biden is lagging Trump by five percentage points. And we don't really know why. We don't know why particularly non -white voters seem to be, you know, no longer, pro -biden. Is it the economy? Is it the Democrats have gone too far left? Does the Democrats gone too far right?

18:34I mean, again, as you can imagine, Democrats can't quite decide amongst themselves. No, no, no. Which is very briefly closed off this part of discussion with what he said about Israel and Gaza and this poor and allied to the fact that since the state of the Union, he has had some pretty critical comments about Netanyahu, Netanyahu, who has this hit back. I wonder if he is slightly recalibrating the way that he handles Netanyahu. He is very pro -Israel. He's been very, very supportive in so many levels, but I wonder if the patience is getting a little bit thin. What, I was talking to someone right in his, you know, who was right in his inner circle.

19:06And he said that the problem initially with Biden, and this is a bit, you know, maybe a bit blunt, but that Biden has just felt in his whole political career, very, very, very close to Israel. And this individual said that he never felt that Biden had much interest that she, in our absolute least, didn't have an emotional presence. He said he's actually a very empathetic man, has emotional presence for many people on an individual level, but this just wasn't an issue that ever really moved him. So, surprises me because he's sort of, maybe it's because I've seen him in the Northern Ireland context, but you always get the feeling of him as being kind of on the side of the underdog.

19:40Now, you can argue that Israel is an undog in one level, but in this context, it's quite hard to argue that when you see what's happening in Gaza. And he's also an incredibly empathetic, he's genuinely empathetic. And yeah, he has been, I think, pretty slow to get to the point that what they're doing now with this port, it may or may not work. But also, this is the first time that I think he's really cool, and he actually said that, you know, he's doing Israel more harm than good and said that Raffa will be a red line as well. But then of course, unfortunately, then in the same and few managed to contradict himself and say there are no red lines, there's no conditions.

20:12I think he was definitely up in the rhetoric, no doubt about that. Yeah, good. Okay, well, moving on briefly to the budget. So, the budget was really talked, this is the UK budget, was really talked up in the British press, spring budget, and it was seen as the great opportunity to redefine the narrative, the general election. Now, do you think... It didn't get much coverage in Australia, I was saying that. Do you think the British journalists believe that or they were just looking for something to fill the papers? There was so much of this sort of stuff from the kind of inner circle of, you know, what's Rishi Sunat going to do, what's Jeremy Hunt going to do?

20:49What are they going to do with tax? How are they going to win the election? What's the rabbit they're putting out of the hat? And then the thing happened, and I felt watching it, that it was... Should have been obvious from day one, that there was nothing they could do, that there was no way this budget was going to turn it around. They simply don't have the headroom or the movement. There's nothing, literally nothing they could have done, that would have turned it around. So, do you think the journalists would just feel they have to talk it up, that they sort of pretend it's the Super Bowl? No, I don't feel that.

21:15I think there was a... Look, it's true that journalists do make things up, but I think something like a budget, it's not that difficult for a government to shape a narrative. So, I think they were shaping this narrative. What was the narrative? Well, the narrative was basically about, you know, tax cutting, and it was about lane tracks for labour. That was the narrative they were putting out there. And I think my sense is that because the rules have completely broken down, is that all the stuff that was in there, they kept sort of feeding it out, and it wasn't really moving the dial for them, so they kept feeding more stuff out.

21:51And by the time the day came, it was kind of nothing. And I've got to be honest, I was in Australia, it was very hard to find the television station that was covering it. Eventually, I was sort of watching the part of a channel. And you've got to say the Tory MPs did not look like they were enjoying themselves. But I think so, for people who didn't follow the budget, the big announcement was that he's cut National Insurance the bit that the employee pays by 2%. And he has also put a pretty tough austerity definition on spending. Says that spending will only increase by 1 % in real terms. And that's that that is a problem.

22:32That's a challenge for labour because of course, big commitments were already been made to the NHS. And he stole some of the clothes with the not he made changes to the non -dom. So he could have lent him to that more. I mean, I think, you know, my great friend, here at David Gork said, you know, he thought that actually that was a little bit aggressive and wasn't what he would have wanted to do, but equally Jeremy Hunt could have behaved worse, you know, he could have made more of a could have said it. Well, then he can let it go up by 0 .75 % for example. But the fundamental framing problem is that nobody believes, nobody cares.

23:04I mean, my sense is that you could announce a 10 % cut in taxes now. And everybody would be like, well, it's just going to be turned around after the next election anyway. And anyway, the markets wouldn't do anything very dramatic because if he did, it would be like, let's trust. If there was huge unfunded tax tax. I think the other impact of let's trust is that the OBR, the office of budget responsibility, which was Osborne's creation, it's almost like you can't challenge it because she completely cut them out and that has elevated their status. And so I think that ties a bit more. They basically say that the economy is going to grow a bit faster and the cost of debt is incredibly high and tax levels are incredibly high.