232. Question Time: ISIS-K vs Russia, radical reform of the NHS, and the fight against child poverty

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1:49Welcome to the rest of the politics question time with me, Alistair Campbell. At Mi Rory Stewart. Now, one of the big stories that we didn't cover in the main podcast was the terrorist attack in Moscow. Let's start with that Rory. Aaron K Wilson, what is your take on why ISIS K attack Russia? Tim Harries? How will the Moscow concert attack affect the war in Ukraine? Did you want to have a go with that one? Yeah. Well, it's very interesting. I mean, I think one thing that maybe people haven't fixed on enough is that the attackers were almost certainly Tajiks from Central Asia, so from a little country that's on the northern edge of Afghanistan.

2:23And it's complicated for a number of reasons. One is that Tajiks seem to be increasingly radicalized and involved in terrorist attacks around the world. There's a lot of activity partly because ISIS is struggling to survive in Afghanistan. The Taliban have been pushing them back. They've been a kind of rival terrorist group. They've been recruiting a lot of Tajiks, Stan. About 4 ,000 Tajiks went to join ISIS when it had this caliphate across the Iraqi Syrian border. And they seem to have been involved in a spate of recent attacks, including an attack that was filed to attack Kloen Cathedral, Germany, attack in Holland.

3:00And now most recently, this attack in Moscow. It's really complicated. It's very complicated because on the one hand, there are very close economic connections between Russia and Tajiks. The largest Russian non -navel base in the world is in Tajiks, Stan. There are well over a million Tajiks living in Russia, huge numbers of remittance payments going back. People send cash back to their families from Russia, to Tajiks, Stan. But this is likely to lead to a big clampdown on Tajiks living in Russia. On the other hand, of course, one of the things that may be driving this is because there is quite a large Tajiks community.

3:40And because they often feel that they're treated as second -class citizens in Russia, it's a potential breeding ground for terrorist attacks against Russia. I suspect that's one of the reasons why they displayed yesterday the four guys that they arrested. They displayed them yesterday in court, surrounded by dozens of cameras. And they had clearly been tortured, beaten up, called it what you want. There was one guy who had a huge bandage where apparently his ear had been severed. There was another guy. I don't even see it Rory. Couldn't open his eyes. There were sort of black eyes and bulging temples.

4:16So I think that that was a deliberate message saying, okay, these guys got away with it in that they managed to kill a lot of people. But this is what happens if you decide to go down that route. And I guess the other interesting element to this is the fact that Putin and the Kremlin so quickly tried to link the events to Ukraine without any seeming evidence at all. So I suppose that shows also the Putin, whatever happens, whatever is happening that he doesn't control, he tries to link it to the things that he think he can control. It's very complicated, isn't it? Because you're exactly right.

4:58When I first heard about it, I thought, well, maybe this is Ukraine connected. But it completely complicates the strategic narrative in Russia because everything was meant to be about Russia saving world civilization through its fight against Nazis and Ukraine. And suddenly now it's back to terrorism, Chechnya, the war in Syria and all this kind of stuff. And it's interesting. I mean, Putin used Chechnya attacks in Moscow paradoxically to really drive his popularity out because it then led to this very brutal campaigns in Grosny. So it's going to be interesting to see whether people feel as they might that he's taking the eye off the ball and he's not doing his job properly or whether he manages yet again to try to make his brutal response part of his sales pitch.

5:48Final thing, I suggest for our let you come in again. I also think it's a reminder of the fact that we shouldn't be complacent at all about terrorist attacks in Europe now. A Gaza is really radicalizing opinion. We've had a few years in which there's been less visible big terrorist attacks in Europe. But this colonial cathedral attack, the Tempton Holland, it's very likely that we will begin to see more attacks happening in Europe and people will attempt to mount attacks in the United States again. So one of the things that we were talking about in this great leading infu with the ex -head of MI6 and MI5, which is coming out quite soon, I was talking about the way that these intelligent stations, particularly our foreign intelligence stations, he switched after 9 -11 to put more and more emphasis on counterterrorism instead of their traditional work.

6:34And then to some extent, they've sort of flipped back and they're focusing much more on things like Russia and Ukraine. I feel we're going to have to get back to a world where we're putting more resources into counterterrorism. Yeah, I think people will be interested in just how frank John Sores, the ex -MAS6 guy and Eliza Manning and Bullah who ran MI5, just how frank they are about some of the issues we talk about. And for example, Eliza, absolutely crystal clear that she sees what's happening in Gaza as catastrophic in terms of the radicalization of a generation and that we and every other country in the world will have to deal with that down the track.

7:10Also very, very, very strong views about Trump as well. So that is one to look forward to. Now Rory, last week we talked about free ports and special economic zones. And do you remember how turnly was she in parliament at the same time as you? I know her, but I don't think in parliament at the same time. Okay, well she was MP for Red Car and she's standing again in Red Car. And she starts off very nicely, Rory, she says, I'm a big fan of Rory's. Okay, but the bus has come in here. Found myself disappointed in his uncharacteristic lack of intellectual curiosity on the free port and T side. He seems to domestic issue as a situation where the government has been ripped off and out and negotiated.

7:50But what happened here? Is that a huge site in public ownership after compulsory purchase was turned into 50, 50 joint venture project with a couple of businessmen with close links to the mayor after no procurement process, no 10 ring opportunities for any other businessmen. How can you assess value for money without a 10 ring process? This was then turned into a 90 10 joint venture with no publicity and no scrutiny. And there was a piece in their financial times about their profits, these business guys, absolutely soaring. So Anna goes on contracts are going to family members. We see the developers buying stately homes worth three million.

8:28Their son's swanning around T side in Rolls Royces while we have some of the biggest child poverty rates in the country. And so I guess she's making the point I was trying to make that this isn't just about business. This is about a new system, new systems which are tipped towards this kind of, I'd call it kind of cronyism as opposed to proper tendering anti corruption processes. Yeah, well, I'm not in favor of these things. I think this is where I follow my my hero David Gork that if there are good reforms that you need to make to get the economy going. And if there's too much red tape and the too many regulations, too much planning and web as this, be brave and do it across the whole country.

9:11Don't create these that all islands where you try to change the rules. But I guess what's going on behind it is this question of how you get the balance right because as you point out at the same time as it's absolutely true that seems to be shocking examples here. We also know that Britain is unbelievably bad at launching anything building any infrastructure getting anything done. And that's partly because our processes, our planning rules, our tendering procedures are unbelievably slow and bureaucratic, which is why you know you often make jokes about the fact they were talking about the third runway when you came in in 97.

9:43Yeah, this guy Ben Houch and though he's clearly an operator. He had, I didn't see question time but people were abused, slashed angered at the fact that there was a woman in the audience last week who was talking about a wonderful man Ben Houch and was. And it turned out that she's the wife of one of his colleagues who was also sitting in the audience. So it's a bit like you being nice about Keir Starmer. I pick your pardon. Well, presumably she's a key she's been related to a colleague. It's like you being nice about Keir Starmer. Yeah, but I wouldn't go. I wouldn't go and pretend to be a sort of random member of the public at a question time audience.

10:20I suppose the danger is yeah exactly. That's true. I get it. Right. Yeah, look Tasmania election, something that's that you know a lot about. Aaron, I've just turned 18. Be voting for the first time in a state election. Just over a month away, Tasmania is the only state in the country with a liberal government still in power. So it will be fascinating to see how this plays out. Tell us about what's happening Tasmania. Well, they've had the election and very interesting. So it is the only state in the country with a liberal government and that's their torres as it were. But they've not done very well.

10:49They've taken a bit of a hit. However, the labor opposition weren't the main beneficiaries. The main beneficiaries were smaller parties and independents. So it's now going to be some sort of coalition that gets cobbled together. So I don't know how you voted Aaron, but that was very, very, very interesting election. Had it gone to labor, it would have meant that Australia was read as in labor at the federal level and in every single state, which would have been quite a thing. So Tasmania probably still going to be liberal premier, but with a pretty shaky coalition. Now, Rory, what about this one?

11:27You are, I don't want to be too hard on you because you know, but given you did give Rachel Reeves a bit of a kicking, I don't feel too bad about it. The other place where you were getting a lot of pushback last week was what do you say about the health service? So now here's one. Jim Down, Rory seems convinced that investment is not the problem with the health service and the reform of his solution. But in the new labor years, we were ranked first by the Commonwealth fund ahead of Europe, America, Australia, etc. Since then, our cumulative underspend, even including COVID spending uplift is 322 billion.

12:03Innovation, data, AI, etc. is vital, but changing the system will be expensive, and it's changing one set of problems for another. Aren't the big picture answers ultra -processed food taxes to reduce chronic illness and a more preventive approach? PS, healthcare does not meet the requirements for a successful marketplace, not even close. Well, I mean, I think he's absolutely right about the fact that even if you look around the world and you see systems that seem to be doing that, sometimes people, for example, were envious of France or envious of Australia, changing to one of those systems would be incredibly painful.

12:40And I can really see the argument to say that we're not starting from the same place and that trying to shift midways almost impossible. He's also right that the NHS, the way it's currently run desperately needs more money, and it runs much better when there's much more money given to it. I guess where we part company is about where the government's going to get that money from and at the expense of what, because I think that's where such a Java's point that if you look at the C -Del, which is the kind of flexible bit of government spending, we've gone up from 27 % being spent on the NHS to 45 % about a get -up to 50.

13:18But that isn't that though because that NHS is one of the few budgets that was not frozen. So most of the other budgets during austerity were frozen. Absolutely. So it's a higher and higher proportion, but of course he's implying that we need to put much more money in. And it's true that it was a big increase in real terms, which is what Osborne and Cameron were talking about was nothing like enough because health inflation is always a few percent above normal inflation because as we get older, there's more and more people needing treatment and drugs, get more and more expensive. So I think there's no doubt that one way of solving it would be to try to do what Gordon Brown did, which has just put an enormous amount more money into the system except that there would probably be quite a lot of waste, but also that that would tackle many of the problems the question is whether that come from.

14:01I mean, here's somebody Matt Morgan, Dr. Matt Morgan, in fact, three ways to make a health service affordable, so question coming in, tax more like Denmark, ration like the French, or collaborate with industry like Australia. The UK seems to do all three, right? It does tax more, it does ration more, and it does collaborate with industry, but it isn't honest or transparent about it, which path should we choose and don't say improve efficiency? You've got all these debates, which we've had, for at Lee, who was a conservative MP with me and then became a Lib Dem, who's a GP from, that was the MP for Braknell.

14:38I think, unless I'm being unfaithened, was one of a number of MPs on the Health Committee and others who suggested that people should be charged a nominal amount for appointments with GPs because these very, very large numbers of people just not turning up to appointments. I think that's true in some of the health systems around the world, which is that you do need to pay a small amount to access it. I guess their assumption is psychologically that might make you think a bit more carefully before missing your appointment. Where are you on all this stuff for the moment? Well, we, I mean, part of the problem with the UK is that we sort of, we want, if you like, the best European levels of public service, but we want an American approach to taxes at work.

15:20And the truth is, you probably can't have both. So where I'm with you and to a lesser extent with Sajja Javid, I do think that there has to be some kind, I think the base, I think, Jim Down is right, the basic system is fine and the principle is fine. And by the way, I went to Ziffion and I went to see Nye, the player about Nye Bevan, with the National Theatre the other day, and my god, it is brilliant. Michael Sheen is an absolutely amazing actor. But it's a fantastic reminder of, you know, we, we talked in the interview with Anthony Gormley, he was bemoaning the lack of imagination in politics.

15:56And it's the lack of imagination that leads us to downgrade the arts, is the lack of imagination at least to break set the power of the imagination of the idea that that that Labour government had of a health service free at the point of need regardless of the ability to pay and the drive and determination that it took to make it come about. It's a brilliant play, but it's also a fantastic story. And I think it's a reminder that we do need to keep those high levels of imagination of what is possible. But I think that, you know, I wouldn't have a problem with the being some kind of cross -party commission approach to review the workings of the health service, with a view to improving it, and with a view properly to exploit in the advantages of technology.

16:39I was talking to Dr. Thea who said some of the stuff that they're seeing in relation to cancer care and AI in the development of technology is mind -blowingly brilliant. So I think there can be both of these things going on, but I'd be very, very low to dismiss the strength and the power of that founding principle of the health service. Absolutely. Okay, let's do a quick break. More questions in a minute.

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18:15Now, Rory, can I give you this? We talk very, very briefly about this in the main podcast in the context of the flag. Bobbi O'Malley. Last week, DWP released high record highs of children in poverty, but it's basically been ignored by most news media. Why is it that they've just got so used to it, or are they just so far away from understanding the consequences of this? It doesn't seem that important. Polly Purve is quoted from the Joseph Rantry Foundation. The number of people in households at risk of being unable to afford enough food has risen by 53 % in a year from 4 .7 million to 7 .2 million.

18:51And I mean, we are talking there, we're talking about millions of people who are really, really, really struggling. And it seems to me they have no next to no voice on the media at all. So why don't we cover that stuff? So two things on that. I'll come back to your thing in a second, but clearly the main responsibility for this must lie with the concept of government. They've been in government for 13 years. And a lot of these poverty indicators are going absolutely in the wrong direction. And we should dig into that and look at the mistakes they've made. But the reason it's not getting in the news is partly that Labour has not decided to make this an issue.

19:28We talked to the main podcast about that speech given by Rachel Reeves. And she barely mentions poverty. I think she mentions it three times, one in a historical context and one in a sort of much more abstract context. So before we get on to what can be done to sort it out, what the Tories are doing wrong, why has Labour given this shocking use? And given that Labour is absolutely on the side of equality and progressive politics, why has Labour not made more of this? Well, it's a very, very good question. And I'm not sure I know the answer. Are they thinking that if they're just seen as the people who bang on about poor people, it loses that sense of aspiration?

20:06But I think you can do both. I think you can do both. I think you have to do both because the sort of economy that Rachel Reeves was talking about, she did talk, for example, about the fact that post -COVID in particular, there's been this sort of huge surge of economically inactive people, people on disability benefits and so forth. And she's talked about the need to reverse that trend. But the cost of poverty now is astronomical, even if it is the voluntary sector that's picking up a lot of the pieces. But I think Labour should make more of this. I really do. I think that you can't have, I saw that it was, I mean, there was a thing on German television the other day, on ARD, it was a long report about shoplifting and leads.

20:49And we should put it in the newsletter because there's a subtitle version that's doing the rounds. And it's stuff, honestly, it was the sort of stuff and the kind of interviews. You just, I just can't remember the last time I saw anything like that on British television. It was talking to these guys in a pub who were talking about, you know, they were saying that they know so many families who've been touched by suicide, they know so many families who literally can't afford to eat or heat at the same time. And then they were talking to these people who were shopkeepers who were losing so much to shop lifting every day.

21:20And it just seems to me that it's absent from our political debate. And I think you're right. I think I probably, I'm too quick to blame them, media sometimes, we're not covering it. But they probably would cover it more if there was like a Labour Party campaign on this. Gordon Brown to be fair to him. Gordon Brown bangs on about child poverty, as he did in government, he bangs on about it all the time. He's right. And I think there's also this issue that everybody gets confused about differences between absolute poverty, measured one way, relative poverty, which is about the gaps between between people.

21:52But there are certain kinds of statistics that you could use to bring it home more. So I was talking to a man who is one of the senior people at Iston Foods and he talked about the fact that they can see moments in their statistics of big uprise and people shoplifting milk powder, baby milk powder. And those are difficult to explain away except in terms of people in absolutely desperate situations. And it's not a normal thing to shoplift. And you can just see it in the figures and see pockets. That's very interesting because that was one of the things that this report, this German report, figure featured was that was the rise in the theft of nappies and baby food.

22:28Yeah. And this is also goes to it and it's you that labor's been for some reason that I don't, well, now I can understand why but hasn't been prepared to challenge. So the conservatives have imposed a two child limit on benefits and the idea is that they're worried that people have more kids to get more benefits. The problem with those limits is even if it's true that there are a few people who might have more kids to get benefits. The impact on large families who have more than two kids who are living in poverty is unbelievable. And it's brutal. And I think labor traditionally would always have challenged that kind of policy.

23:03And they're not yet challenging it. And one would like to see them challenging because again, the answer to this I'm afraid brutally is cash. You need to give cash to poor people so that they can meet their immediate needs and priorities. And that extends to feeding their kids, closing themselves, making sure that kids are in school. And again, we need to challenge this ludicrous idea, which is shown in all the data and research to be false, that giving cash to people just encourages dependency and it illness. In fact, there's such good evidence from randomized controlled trials across the developing world, across the developed world that the most straightforward way to tackle poverty is I'm afraid to make people less poor.

23:49Yeah. There was a conference last week in Liverpool. And there's a guy called David Taylor Robinson who's a professor expert in public health. And he was talking about children who were turning up to school with no shoes. He was talking about children who were sharing their only meal of the day with their brothers and sisters. And he was saying that in Liverpool, infant mortality is on the rise. So these are all signs of something far bigger than the political or media debate are prepared to count. And I just do not understand why. And it's all part of this sort of denial of the real world. We deny that Brexit's damaging the economy.

24:28We deny that we've got all sorts of sort of structural, social problems that have driven inequality. And if we don't admit them, we're never going to address them. And I think there's a bigger issue in the way that we think about politics, which is that we think a lot in terms of economic numbers. Your friend Tessa Jal said once in a speech, and it really stuck with me that when she went into a hospital, she'd ask herself, you know, what I want my mother to be in this hospital. And I began thinking about it with prisons. You know, what I want my sister or brother to be in this prison. And it's true on poverty too that we need to have a sense of just how shameful this is, how lacking in decency that ask yourself, would you want to invite someone from another country?