234. Question Time: Why New Labour introduced tuition fees, Thatcher and Blair’s canvassing secrets, and the greatest prime minister we never had

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1:51Welcome to the rest of the politics question time with me, Rory Stewart and me, Alice Campbell. And Rory, quite a few questions this week on the premise that you might have won the leadership contest in 2019, which I'm sure would have made you very, very happy and would have made me very happy because it meant Boris Johnson would never have been prime minister. Harrison Jane, if you, Rory, had won the leadership contest in 2019, who would have been in your cabinet? Philip Davis, I don't think that's Philip Davis, the MP, sorry, Sir Philip Davis, in a parallel universe, If Rory won the Droid leadership contest and became PM, what were your three top policy deliveries?

2:27Policy more straightforward because that was something I was actively campaigning on. And that was Customs Union. Then and now I believe that the UK joining the Customs Union is the best way of recognising results of the referendum while also giving Britain a close relationship with Europe economically, politically. And I think even today if we join the Customs Union could transform confidence and our economy. The second one was getting cross -party agreement on adult social care and the NHS. I mean, it seems to me like a massive looming disaster that, broadly speaking, the two parties ought to be able to agree on and we need to put it on a 20 -30 year, footing and fund it properly.

3:02And the third one, which was a bit more left field, was I was pushing for midlife education. I was very conscious that AI robotics would lead people losing their jobs. And I still think in the next 10 years we're going to see a massive displacement of the workforce. So having really high quality training for someone in their 30s or 40s to allow them to get another job was the other bit. Cabinet's more tricky. I mean, Cabinet obviously I didn't talk about at the time. You'll be astonished to hear I would have made David Gork my chance for the ex -checker. Really astonished. Breaking news here. Do you think David Gork is mentioned more than any other non -party leading or presidential or prime ministerial figure on this podcast?

3:42Yeah, it's possible that I'm actually running a leadership campaign for David subliminally all the time. I did actually want him to run. I only ran because he wouldn't run. Yeah. Who's you following the secretary? Probably David Liddington, who again, you know, left with me, but I thought had been an amazing foreign office minister, very, very calm, very quiet, highly admired. And your home secretary, and I'm watching that for diversity here, or... Yeah. So you're saying the answer couldn't be Kim Clark, that was not the route to go down. I'm the animator in justice. Justice. Well, I rated Victoria Prentice, who I like very much.

4:17I rated Alex Chalk, such a java -jermy hunt. Of the brexitiers, I probably would have put in James Clevley, Graham Stewart, Rishi Sunerk, Nigel Adams, Mark Spencer. Hmm. So pretty rum -lot. Who are you going to put in? Or is your basic view that we're all such a bunch of disasters you can't come up with single one. I had a struggle. I noticed I didn't hear the name gov in there. Well, Michael Gove was controversial to sketch, actually. He was very good at she -in -environment, very good injustice. And there's a reason why he's in everybody's cabinet, which is he's very hard working, very focused, very practical.

4:56So I think the temptation probably would have been to use him actually in the way that even Boris Johnson who had real problems with him used him in a delivery department. Would you have tried to persuade to resume to take a step down? Well, to resume as foreign secretary would have been interesting, wouldn't it? There's a good idea. Yeah, is that what you were pushing for? So, Liddington's been sucked already. Well, I don't know, I'm just, yeah, to do reshuffle's rory. It's very hard. And of course, balancing the different parts of the party, because of course, what I would have done is I then would have had an enraged Boris Johnson, Pretty Patel, Liz Truss, all of whom would be Bravaman, all of whom would have been Bravaman, I think, in 2019, luckily, it didn't really exist.

5:35But what on the same way she does now is a major political figure. And Jacob Riesmog and the rest then would have been causing absolute ruckians on the back bench. Yeah. No, it's really difficult putting these cabinets together because you're trying to get talent and you're also trying, which is my kind of David Gorg David letting to bet, you're also trying to get big communicators and you're trying to hold different parts of the party together. And I guess this is why we look at these cabinets and we're like, whoa, how on earth do we end up with that? Yeah, they're like a very, very difficult psychological jigsaw.

6:04Right, here we are. Best the rest. Sean Rutter. You've done best and worst PMs. Who's the best prime minister we never had? Who would have made a cracking PM but didn't quite get there for whatever reason? Can you give us a couple of names from various parties on that? Oh, I think it's so hard to answer that question because you just don't know until they get there whether they would have been any good. I think an obvious one is David Miliband. I still wonder, I mean, is idle wondering now because he didn't become leader of the party, but I wonder what would be my to beat David Cameron. I think going back, Tony Blair became Prime Minister, having become Labour leader on the back of John Smith dying.

6:37Now I think John Smith would have become Prime Minister and would probably have been a very good Prime Minister. Very much in the kind of atleast armour mould as opposed to sort of, you know, Blair Clinton as it were. I think on the Tory side, I actually do think Michael Hezl time would have been a pretty good Prime Minister. Again, more of a sort of Blair Clinton figure than Atley Smith -Starmer. What did you make of Willie Whitelaw who of course people thought was the person who was, he was, in my constituency, Penraith and the Border and was the person people thought was going to beat Mrs. Thatcher?

7:10I mean on a personal level, I liked him. He used to do these briefings for journalists and he was, he was very funny, he was very charming. I mean, I don't think he'd have been a good Prime Minister. No, it's difficult time to come into, wasn't it, late 70s, whether he would have been able to actually bring to reforms? Yeah. I've been caught up a little bit in this whole debate around, so Chris Patton's stepping down as the Chancellor of Oxford. Yep. And there's this big debate because they seem to be changing the rules to prevent white male politicians. He's coming Chancellor of Oxford University.

7:40Exactly. But the last two, Chris Patton and Roy Jenkins are interesting characters. I mean, it sort of became a role for people who, Oxford graduates at least, rather kind of fantasized about becoming Prime Minister, but they never make it. Yeah, you see, those two are classic. When I said earlier, you wouldn't really know until they got there. Both very, very significant political figures, both with a track record of making real change. You know, some of the greatest things that the past Labour governments did, it was Royal Jenkins, who had the money's agenda. whether they had what it takes for the very, very top job, I'm not sure.

8:16I remember with Chris Patton, when there was a lot of talk that he might become Prime Minister or certainly become Conservative leader either before or after John Major did, I remember a big part of the debate was about the fact that he was a Catholic and how difficult it would be for a Catholic. And now without any sense of being a problem at all, we have a Hindu, Prime Minister. So that shows just how much things have changed. Yeah, yeah, but I think both listen both of them very very significant and I have to say Chris Patton did an interview the other day on lbc about Brexit which was absolutely brilliant He really called it out for what it is so yeah both of them very big political figures But I just think you don't know until they get there whether they can do it and would you just very quickly?

9:01What are you given that my name in the running for this forget me? But what do you think about this idea that instead of having a full democracy? which is what they used to have where all the graduates from Oxford were allowed to vote and choose whoever they wanted. They've now set up a sort of secretive appointed committee that reduces the number of candidates. Presumably because they basically don't trust the electorate, they think Oxford graduates can't be trusted to produce a sensible chance. I can't pretend to know what the chancellor does and what sort of powers and functions they have. I mean the fact that somebody is a politician should not, in my view, exclude them from running for what's clearly an important position within the university.

9:36I can see why they might want to think more broadly than getting a politician, but did Chris Patton do a pretty good job? Most people would say yes, did Royal Jenkins do a pretty good job? I think most people would say yes. So I think it's a very, very old move and I think it's just part of this whole sort of, let's just be horrible about politicians all the time, which when you were meant to be one of the great seats of learning in the world, I'm not sure that's a very good message to send out. Talking of university, Dory, Chris Smith, at the time of writing, more than 40 UK universities have announced cuts and redundancies.

10:0763 % of higher education institutions in England and Wales could be in deficit by 2526. How has the collapse of a sector worth 130 billion to the economy been allowed to happen? And what can any government do now? And then Mark Smith on the same one, is it time to cut universities loose from the fees cap? Because I guess these things are related, aren't they? They're to do with how much money the universities get from the government, how much money they get from tuition fees, and how much money they get from international students who I think aren't kept in the same way. Yeah. And this was a huge issue, wasn't tuition fees all the way through because there was an argument out there that given that graduates tend to earn more, it was unfair that taxpayers in general should pay for something that graduates were benefiting from.

10:51So there was this move to tuition fees. I think it started under you guys under Labour and then it was increased significantly by the Tory Liberal Coalition Government which was a big big problem for the Lib Dems because they'd campaigned against tuition fees. What do you remember about that hold debate? That it was very very difficult and what was one of our most famous slogans, that's been my three priorities for government, I tell you, education, education, education. So one of our big goals was to a huge increase in the number of school leaders who went to university. We wanted a big expansion of the university sector both because of the commitment to our own education but also as the question that Chris Smith said because of the role that universities play within the economy more broadly.

11:29And is this Chris Smith? Is it your friend Chris Smith? I don't know but if it is then Chris Smith is now he's the master of an Oxford college but I think if it was the Chris Smith or that Chris Smith I think he would have probably said so but it might be. I know he listens to the podcast so he can let us know. So we brought you in quite difficult, quite controversial but I think people more or less understood I think we managed to explain the reasons that you couldn't, you know, when I went to university, I had a full grant and it wasn't even on the radar that we might end up having to sort of play these sorts of fees.

11:59Obviously, Nick Clegg massively damaging into him politically, that he became part of the coalition and they went along with this increase. But this, it answers the Christmas question. It underlines yet again just how inter -kinated we all are, because one of the big factors in the problems that universities are facing is the, the fall in the number of Chinese students because of sort of political difficulties. And of course that's exacerbated by some recent developments. Nigerian students who at one point were the fastest growing group in British universities, that has almost collapsed because there's been a collapse in the value of the Nigerian currency.

12:35and then above all, because of the debate on immigration, the Sunat government stopping master students from bringing family members to the UK, because a lot of overseas students, they come here for postgraduate courses, they may be into their mid -20s and older, they've got kids. So all of these things have come together to hit the number of students coming from abroad. And then you add in the Scottish Angle where university fees for scots are free, so they need more overseas students. And then inflation I reckon, because I think by law tuition fees were capped at £9 ,250 a year ago. And I reckon £9 ,000 a year ago is about £12 ,000 a day.

13:13So there's been a huge increase in the costs for the universities inflation, but tuition fees have been capped. And of course it's much, much higher than it is in some light Spain, where I think tuition fees are like £1 ,000 a year or even less. But we still got this amazing sector. I mean, we've got this incredible university. I think 17 of the top 100 in the world of British universities I mean, it's one of the few things Britain does do better on than other European countries. We've got many more in the top 100 than France or Germany But what you're seeing at the moment is so last week I think it was Essex that announced that they were facing real financial difficulties It's happening a little bit piecemeal at the moment and I'm not aware of a kind of government strategy to address this And I worry that it's one of the growing list of areas that the government is thinking too hot to handle pre -election, let's leave it and if labor when they're gonna have to pick this up.

14:03But if university start to go bust That is gonna be incredibly damaging to the UK. There is also another thing which I think people have pointed out I'm sure this is a bad egg problem. It's not definitional sex. But unfortunately there have been institutions which have just been relying on income from foreign students and not producing a really great level of education and the implication is that students are signing up to these courses partly to be able to come to the UK not getting a great deal of education out of it. So there's a real problem which is this is a huge sector with a lot of income coming in but people being a bit worried that at least on the fringes there are some pretty dodgy universities who are not really providing very good education and are getting people who aren't really committed to education as a way of coming to the UK.

14:45Of course, the other factor that has played a part in this is our old friend austerity. There have been cuts to funding for teaching, really substantial. Inflation, as you say, is a big part of it as well. Some of the universities that we're talking about, they're pretty big names in the university sector that are reporting real difficulties in pay, in hiring. And you talked about the, as you say, we are, I think we're second only to America in terms of how many universities we've got in the top 100 in the world. And in 2012, British universities accounted for 15 % of the most cited research papers in the world, and that's now formed to just above 10%.

15:25Now, there could be also other factors there, rise of China and so forth, but I think that we underestimate how much good our universities do, not just in education, but also in the economy, and our soft power as well, our global standing. It's incredibly important. OK, and a quick break, then, back with more questions.

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17:43Someone called Canabot coming in with a question hint. In Australia, you've just come back from Australia. We're seeing an enormous surge in former NHS staff migrating here for economic reasons. they can get paid double or sometimes triple here what they get in the NHS and yet our health care is largely affordable and high quality can Britain learn lessons from us. I mean I'm sure we can learn a lot of lessons but I hope what CanaBot doesn't mean is that we should be paying three times as much because wage bills are already 37 % of the NHS budget. I mean if we triple the salaries of people in the NHS obviously 95 % of the current NHS budget would just be salaries and it would effectively double the size of our ship.

18:24You mentioned the fact that I was there recently, and I met both doctors and nurses randomly who were Brits, who were out there, who'd gone out there, and they didn't say they were tripling their salaries at all. They said they were improving their salaries, but actually they said there were other factors that they felt were more important, and the one that was most cited was the fact that they felt they were valued and respected. I think I told you before, there was one guy who'd worked to a hospital in Surrey who said, it's just so nice going to work and nobody abuses or insults you. I was in the Royal Free recently in A &E visiting somebody and the signs all over the place, you know, abuse will not be tolerated, our staff are entitled to respect and this is all because they are, it's just becoming part of the furniture now working inside the NHS that you're going to get shouted out because people are waiting too long, There's not the bed that you need, it's so -for.

19:17So I think it is that, I think it's the sense of respect. And so I don't think it's just about money. I mean, yes, the other thing, let's be absolutely frank about it, the weather, the lifestyle. That's the other thing they said, it's just so nice to be able to leave work and go to the beach. Have you ever been tempted by Australia as a place to live? I mean, it seems to be, you seem to have a lot of funness for it, don't you? I do, I would be tempted. I mean, look, I actually said to my kids, I said, you know, if I was your age, I'd love to live in Australia. I think it's just got the feel of a young dynamic country.

19:48Now, there's got problems and I think the whole Aboriginal issue is really, really quite profoundly depressing. I think it's politics is quite interesting. I've just tried a brilliant book, by the way, Roy. You would love it. It's 20 odd years old now, but it was given to me out there, and it's a book by Paul Keating's speech writer called Recollections of a Broken Heart. It's the best book I think I'll come across for describing what it's like inside a high level political organisation with all the ups and the downs and the characters and the egos and all that. So yeah, I do like Australia, but no, I think if I was going to leave England, it would be to live in either Scotland or France, I think.

20:25Great. Now here's one, Rory. It also a health question. Helen Cooper, how about a sugar tax entirely to be used to help fund the NHS? Well, what do you think about the energy of sugar tax? Well, I think that one of the reasons why the health service is struggling today is because of obesity, an obesity which is caused by bad diet, lack of exercise and so forth, and a lot of that related to poverty. And so you've got to be careful on the one hand, would the sugar tax punish those who are already pretty poor? But on the other hand, if you could hypothesate it, have the sugar tax and say that is money going direct to the National Health Service, as part of a more preventive approach, I wouldn't have a problem with that.

21:06But of course, the food and drink industry has such powerful lobbying. Yeah. Well, we did actually, this was a conservative thing that we did. And it's an interesting thing because actually to be frank, I'd forgotten that in 2017 I actually voted for sugar tax And we introduced the sugar tax what happened to it though did it happen? Yeah happened and it's still going but I I'm not trying to call you out here So it's no levy on soft drinks less than five grams of sugar powder milliliters 18 pence per liter of soft drinks Continued between five and eight grams, but the reason I'm sort of point to it's not to point to your I'm not knowing it it's that it's an example of something that governments do which are quite sensible but which get not that much coverage unless you're really concentrating on it.

21:46So you or I are a general member of the public can barely be aware that the sugar tax exists. No, one of the things the sugar tax amendment is just a general tax it just goes to the government. So maybe high -possicating it for the NHS might be interesting. The government did it thinking that they could reduce sugar intake by 20 % by 2020. They totally failed to do that. So I think there are questions about whether it really works as a kind of policy lever. And I'd love a someday to debate this amazing new drug that's come in an issue for diabetes, but called I think Zentech, which leads to this incredible weight loss, which may turn out more than almost anything else to transform public health in a lot of countries, we can get costs down on the drug.

22:25I've done what you know, Mediroy, I've had a quick hit on Google, BBC coverage of George Osborne announcement, Mr Osborne said the money raised an estimated 520 million pounds a year will be spent on increasing the funding for sporting primary schools. Well, I haven't seen much evidence of that, I must say. You talked about there about the difference the things can make that aren't necessarily the obvious things on health care. It's the 20th anniversary of the smoking ban in public places in Ireland. And I would argue that, which has now been followed in 70 odd other countries, I suspect that has saved more lives around the world than a lot of the more high profile expensive changes that we've made to healthcare.

23:07Here's a question for you, Alastair, which I think, you know, we maybe do more detail next thing, but this is our year of elections, but we didn't cover properly one of the most exciting elections recently, which is the Turkish local elections. So just a quick explainer, the CHP, which was the opposition party, had a very disappointing performance against Erdogan, the president, who's had this increasingly authoritarian rule and building 400 million power mansions and locking up journalists in the St Attiniella. Last year, despite all the fallout from the earthquake, despite some catastrophic economic policies, but has had an amazing renaissance in these local elections.

23:44And these are serious stuff. When we talk local elections, we tend to think about little district councils in Cumbria. This is the He directly elected mayor of Istanbul, Ankara with huge powers. And basically, Erdogan has lost every single one of the major cities. It's a crippling blow to him because he was the mayor of Istanbul. He really lent into this campaign how he made his name. He thought he could take it back. And this may mean that he's what people have worried about, which is he's going to muck around with the constitution so that he can run again in 2028. He's now in a weaker position than he was.

24:17No, I enjoyed your little comparison between these elections in Istanbul and a local election up in Cumbria. If you see some of the TV pictures, I mean these massive rallies and hundreds of thousands of people turning out. And it does seem, I mean Erdogan had a candidate running for his party that was very much his man. A lot of the billboards and the posters and the advertising were the two of them together. He projected it very much as, you know, a vote for him as a vote for me. And Ekrem Imamoglu, who is the incumbent and an opposition figure, this is enormously strengthened him because he is now seen as the guy who might actually take on other one and knock him out.