241. From White House To Courthouse: Trump On Trial

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1:20Welcome to the RESTSIS Politics with me, Roy Stewart. And me, Honest Campbell. We're joining you today for the first ever episode of the RESTAS Politics US with Anthony Scaremucci and Cassie Kaye, hello to you both. Hi guys. Nice to be with you guys. It's an amazing combination that we've got Anthony Scaremucci who knows Donald Trump like very few people on earth and was right at the center of Donald Trump's early white house as his spokesman until he fell out magnificently with Donald Trump and became one of his leading critics. And we've got Kadie Kaye who is, I don't want to say veteran because that sort of implies that she's ancient, which she's not, but a very, very long -standing, incredibly well -informed BBC commentator on US politics and I think will bring just the most wonderful combination of personalities and thought into our analysis of the US election over the next six months.

2:10So we're just going to let you get on with it, you two, because I think the truth is you know a lot more about America than we do. But for listeners who miss the end of our main episode on Wednesday from now until the US presidential election in November and Puno's possibly beyond, we're releasing a weekly episode of Trip US every Friday morning UK times. That right, Katty? Yeah, just in case you haven't had enough of Donald Trump in your life. I feel I've lived with Donald Trump in my life day and night since he came down that escalator in 2015. But what a time to be covering American politics.

2:45And we're going to come out every Friday morning, Antony and I, with some of the news, we'll give you the headlines and our take from kind of an insider and an outsider's perspective on what's happening in the news of the week. But we're also going to look at broader cultural, political, societal issues. I'm convinced people think they know this extraordinary country, but don't always have the feel for it that they couldn't should do. So we're going to bring you some of that as well. Anthony, come in very quickly with you. Just tell us, I mean, you've got so much to tell us, but one thing I'd love to get more from you on is just a sense of the personality of Donald Trump.

3:23What is it that outsiders don't really guess about this guy? Because you spent nearly a year living with him on planes and I mean, you were very close to him, right? Close enough to be named part of the executive transition team after the election. There was only 12 of us on that committee. And yes, I did 71 campaign stops with him on the Trump plane. We went all over the country together. And I think I know him very well. And so we'll be sharing insider secrets, we'll be inside the campaign. I believe it or not, even though I'm a Trump adversary at this point, I still have a lot of friends that are working for Donald Trump.

4:02And so we get a constant feed of information from what's actually going on inside the campaign. But also I think we're, Gatty and I can add a lot of value is just describing what's going on in US society, how it's affecting the global economy, and how it's affecting the potential future of not just America, but Europe, things going on in Asia, all of this stuff is connected into the 2000 and 24 campaign. So yeah, but listen, he's not as nuts as people think. he is nuts, but he's smart nuts. And we'll explain that to people. We'll explain why that's so dangerous. Well listen, it's great to have you both.

4:42Rory and I will probably pop up very every now and then on your show too to get our heads around what's going on over there. But come on Rory, we have actually got you two, Anthony and Cate, we'll give you one guess each. We've got to go to the American Embassy here in London to do an interview with a prominent American politician who happens to be in town. male or female, Alistair? Female. Then it has to be the speaker emeritus. Well done, Nancy Pelosi. Well done. Get some stock tips for me. I would really appreciate it. You just text them to myself on it. One thing I'll show won't be bringing you guys is stock tips.

5:18Let me just reassure you right now. Just thought I would just throw that out there because I know Alistair would be tempted by that. Andy, what's quickly? Before we go in, if you're what's the back story there, she's just done, she's published how much money she's made on the stock market or something. Well, no, I mean in the United States, it's sort of we have some weird outs for the American Congress. She's done quite well. Her and her husband us in the hedge fund community, you know, we have thousands of people, legions of analysts, but we can't outperform Nancy Pelosi. So got got blessed, sir.

5:48Okay. When she, you know, I told, I told my mother, Ma until Trump's out of the political situation, Nancy Pelosi is my favorite Italian American. I just wondered if we could know that. that. Mom is number two until I have to the election. She can come back to number one, but we need Nancy right now to help us defeat Donald Trump. Well, listen, I just hope Nancy Pelosi doesn't listen to this before we interview her. She won't mind, by the way. I know her family well. I've teased her about this. She will not mind, by the way, she'll laugh. She'll think it's fine. She has a good, I share a hairdresser with her and she has a very good sense of humor.

6:24By the way, she's done absolutely nothing wrong. I'm just saying that this is something that the Congress does take advantage of. Okay. Alistair, I'll give you one big coin from my stash if you flat out Asker or five best stockpicks. Okay. It's got to be on the podcast. I'll do it. I'll do it. I'll do it. I'll do it. Well, here we go with the first ever episode of the RESTIS Politics, US.

6:56Welcome to the REST's Politics US on Anthony Scaramucci on the former White House Communications Director for Donald Trump, fired after 11 short days, but worked on his campaign for 9 months and had been involved in presidential politics, primarily as a fundraiser and for BBC Studios. I've been covering American politics for 25 years. This will be my sixth US presidential campaign. This is the first ever episode. I want to explain a little bit about what we're going to do every week when we release these shows on Fridays. We're going to start by talking of course about the news the day we'll get to that in a second.

7:37And then we want to broaden out to bigger cultural issues and what Anthony and I are observing in this incredibly complicated fascinating country and how it all ties in, of course, to the 2024 election. And we're going to start with the news of the week from New York City and that man hat in courtroom and Donald Trump on trial and how terminal might this be for his campaign? What's the problem for his campaign here? So of course, all of you will remember that this is the hush money trial that is taking place in New York. Donald Trump has actually been indicted in four separate criminal cases. one of them is a civil fraud case, and this is the one of the four that is coming to trial in New York, and it all surrounds the adult porn star, Stormy Daniels, and whether he paid her off in order to keep her story about him having an affair with her, quiet, so that he could get elected president of the United States.

8:36It's all kind of fabulous sort of sleazy stuff that is taking place up in New York. He of course denies all of this and it's actually a sort of technicality because it's was their falsification of business records that took place to disguise a campaign payment to the wonderfully named Stormy Daniels and we're going to take a look at what that means for his political campaign. I mean one of the things that interests me about this trial is what this means for Donald Trump. And I want to hear your thoughts on this Anthony because you worked for Donald Trump in the White House for a few days. But you spend a lot more time with him on the campaign trail.

9:12Even though we knew Donald Trump was going to be a defendant in this case, watching him day after day having to sit in this kind of dingy courtroom and being treated like any other defendant, looking bored, nodding off occasionally, looking irritated. I mean, I don't think I've ever spent so much time thinking about the psychological impact of being a defendant in a criminal trial and how exhausting that must be. particularly for somebody like Donald Trump who has tons of energy, you know, loves to express his opinion all the time, wants to talk all the time, wants to be the center of the attention, wants to control events, and as much as anything I find this trial fascinating for what it's doing to him every single day up there in New York.

9:56Well, for starters, I just want you to imagine somebody that has gotten away with everything for six decades. And so he's pushed the envelope, he can bully people, he can say things about people, that nobody else can get away with. As an example, he'll say that he likes his POWs, his veterans not captured versus captured in a way denigrating somebody like John McCain. So he's got away with everything. And he thought he was gonna get away with this. And what was interesting about this case is that one person, one of the witnesses on the case, Michael Cohen, who I know very well, has gone to jail already for this case.

10:34Now, some will say, well, he went to jail specifically for the perjury, Catti, but he went to jail effectively for the sleaze in the case and for the obstruction that the case caused. So now, Donald Trump is sitting there on trial for something that one of his minions already got caught doing. So I think the psychology of this is, well, wait a minute, six decades of getting away with everything. This may be the time in my life where I've come to the end of my rope, but I'm not going to get away with things. And so the only thing I would just say to you is that he's not actually being treated like other people that are being prosecuted in a criminal court.

11:16If someone like you or me, for example, or someone listening, did the things that Donald Trump has done in the courtroom, he would already be thrown in jail, megafines, silenced immediately. Because of the gag old, is he mean? Yeah, because of the gag order. So what's interesting here is he's at the end of his rope not getting away with certain things yet He's going on these radio shows attacking witnesses Threatening witnesses and definitely not allowed to do that in our courts But he's getting away with it. So the real question is and I push it back to you 25 years of observing this is he gonna get away with it again this time will he be exonerated?

11:57Is there one and that 12 person group of witnesses that's going to allow him to get off from Heller -Highwater. Yeah, I think that's the question for him. Does he get acquitted outright? Do the members of the jury, all of them say, we, the jury of his peers find Donald Trump not guilty of falsifying his business records in order to interfere with the 2016 election. or does he have a hung jury? One member of the jury says, actually, you know what? I don't think the prosecution has enough evidence to show that he was intending to falsify his business records to cover up this hush money payment, Stormy Daniels, or is he found guilty by all 12 members of the jury?

12:47And I think all of those have different implications for the 2024 election, right? If he's found not guilty, then that plays into his argument that all of this is just a political witch hunt, and the government is overreaching, and he is being attacked by the deep state, just like you, my mega supporters are being attacked by the deep state. If it's a hung jury, I think he gets some of that benefit. I think he can still go and say, you see what? I wasn't found guilty. A member of the jury decided that actually I was innocent. If he's found guilty, then I think that's more problematic for him. In terms of his ability to go out to the country, and remember, we're going to hear the next four weeks hearing about porn stars and the fact that he is accused of having an affair with a porn star when his wife had just given birth to a child.

13:39Now, I've had a few children. I would not have loved it if my husband went off and had a affair with a porn star after I'd just given birth. I mean, that's just like there's a ton of suburban mothers out there who might say, guys, this is not great behavior. So the impact that this could all have, just hearing the testimony, whatever the outcome is from the jury, just hearing this testimony day after day after day, I wonder what kind of impact that's going to have on suburban women voters. Well, listen, I went to law school and I only learned one thing in law school, Cadi, and that was, don't be a lawyer.

14:10I think that was the most obvious thing I learned in law But I have a lot of friends that are DA's. I have friends that actually work in the Southern district. The Southern District, which is the federal courts in the United States has a 99 % Conviction rate. So if they take a case and you want to go to trial with them, it's 99%. 39 % Sam Bankman free it at example the cryptocurrency fraudster he took the case they convicted them on all counts They Southern district of the United States and the federal courts did not take this case I think it's important to express that to our viewers and listeners When you ask those guys who are buddies of mine?

14:50Well, what are the likelihood of the prosecutors winning this case? They say 60 to 70 percent so there's a two -thirds chance that Trump gets convicted it. Okay, well, what if he gets convicted? I've asked prosecutors before the show, what do you think happens? Well, he's the former president of the United States. So he's likely to get a fine, potentially some home confinement, but he's not going to go to jail. Could he have an ankle bracelet on him? Would he have to campaign remotely for a period of time and beam himself into his rallies? Possibly. So this is not, in my opinion, the election killing case if it goes to full fruition and they actually get the conviction that they're looking for.

15:35But it is gnarly and it is something that the Democrats should exploit, particularly as you say, as a release of the suburban women. There's an interesting kind of money side of this too, those in their Anthony, because of course while he's stuck in that courtroom which he just looks like he is stuck in a theme park kind of place you'd love to be but which I would hate to be in, He looks like he's not having a good time. He's not a happy camper. And one of the reasons he's not a happy camper is he can't be out on the campaign trail while he's stuck in Manhattan courtroom raising money for his campaign, part of which of course goes to pay for his legal fees.

16:08But I wonder what impact this has on the campaign more generally. I mean, when you were with him on the campaign in 2016 and you're flying all over the country and you're holding rallies and you're raising money and going to fundraisers, how much does the fact that he can't be doing that at the moment impact his campaign and his campaigns prospects do you think listen on the margin i think it does affect him on the margin i think it's demoralizing to his staff uh... the glaring obvious thing here is no melania in the court no avonka in the court no family members in the court so they're obviously upset at the facts of the case I think there's another thing lingering here, Cady, and I'll push it back to you.

16:52I think everybody knows this is true. So he did this. There's no question about it. He, I mean, in the mortal words of the great Mormon, Mitt Romney, another person I also worked for, you don't pay $130 ,000 as somebody not to have sex with him. That was a very good line from Mitt Romney. You know, Mitt, okay, I've had to put all my money on Mitt has never had sex outside his marriage. All my money's going on that. Okay, so so you know this is true and so the result of it Do the American people really care? You know one of the things we learned on the Romney campaign is that Americans like Bad behavior, you know, Mitt was a model citizen, you know I mean he got mad at me once because you know He said what do you think's going wrong for me?

17:36I said well, you know you look like a kendo And I said that's going wrong for you said well, what do you mean? I said well, Mitt when you pull the pants down on a kendo Now, you know, you're flat in front. You follow what I'm saying. You don't have enough balls going on here. And strapping is dug to the roof of his car. That was not enough bad. I mean, I think that hurt him too, but the over perfection probably hurt him because most Americans have a tattoo. Most Americans are overweight. Most Americans have problems in their marriage. Most Americans have issues. And so when they look at Trump and they see those flaws in that bad boy behavior, uh...

18:14i think they've chosen in trumps case to ignore it he's the first politician that has broken all the taboo's caddy thirty years ago bill clinton said that he smoked pot but he didn't inhale pot that was a big taboo to say something like that right now these guys are going on the bill marches smoking power the me know my my point being is the entire world is changed trump has changed that world whether we like it or not He has dented and shifted the discourse in the American political society. He's made a coarser. He's a bully and he's given license now to way more bad behavior. I agree with all of that and I'm going to do a yes but which my husband always hates it when I do a yes but but I'm going to push back a bit because I wonder whether actually what the American public is feeling right now is not the titillation factor of some bad bad boy behavior, Donald Trump versus super pristine Mitt Romney.

19:12It's a complete exhaustion factor. And that they look at this, look at the fact that there's no one out there in New York. Where are the crowds? Where are the demonstrations? Where are the people chanting his name outside the courthouse? Everybody's bored. They're bored of the Donald Trump show. They're exhausted by the Donald Trump show. They've seen, we've, we've been hearing about Stormy Daniels. We know even that Stormy Daniels name comes from the fact it's the name of her first dog and the streech she grew up on. We know way too much about Stormy Daniels. And I think it's kind of like, I don't know that we want to watch this movie again.

19:43My sense of the American public at the moment is that there's a kind of feeling that this is yet more chaos and that this is the chaos that comes if Donald Trump is re -elected. And more than that, just exhaustion with the election generally. And it's not just with Donald Trump, it's also a Joe Biden. And people are turned off by the whole thing. And I think this trial, if anything, It's kind of revealing some of that. I mean, maybe the public's exhaustion is going to be Joe Biden's secret weapon because they're going to watch this trial and think, actually, you know what, we run, we in America, we don't like reruns, we like new shows, come on, Holly, would give us something new.

20:18And Donald Trump drove up turnout like crazy in 2016. He drove up turnout in 2018. He drove up turnout in 2020. He drove up turnout in 2022. But there was an NBC poll out this week that showed the enthusiasm for this election as it as lowest level in 40 years. If anything, that probably plays to Joe Biden's advantage, because some of that lack of enthusiasm comes from watching Donald Trump sitting in a courtroom and talking about porn stars and hush money payments. Well, listen, I think it's brilliant and insightful analysis, but what I'm more abreast about is that you know the origin of stormy Daniels, the stage name.

20:55I do have to think that my first animal, my first pet was called Dog. We had a dog called dog. And I lived on a street called London Road. So my stage name would be Dog London, which just it doesn't, it doesn't work, doesn't. Dog London doesn't work, but it could work, though, you know, because that's how brands are. It could work. And this case, by the way, Anthony, just has the most, you couldn't make them up. It's most extraordinary names. Well, I mean, Stormy made up her name. I give her credit for that. But God gave David Pecker this name. All right. It's just the best that we have the chief witness for the The guys last name is Pecker.

21:30I mean, do you love this? Or I personally love it. I feel like there are no coincidences in the universe, Cady. And this is God's way of letting us know that you should be having a little bit of fun in sports, religion, and politics. Yeah. If you were writing this in Hollywood as a screenplay, probably your editor would say, don't be ridiculous. That's not possible. But you're saying something that I think people need to understand and to really open up the hood of what is going on. The engine is misfiring. And so I know people say, you know, he worked for Trump. They got into a spat. He doesn't like Trump.

22:04Blah, blah. It's actually more than that. You know, I've tried to be objective about Trump. I want to be fair about his political instincts. I want to be fair about how he's moved the political zeitgeist in the society, how he is shaken to the core of the Republican Party. But there's something going on underneath all of this that I think people need to understand. He's sputtering. He's running out of money. His legal fees are through the roof. His campaign donations are going towards the legal fees, not to the field offices. And, Caddy, I submit to you and I want to get your reaction to this.

22:43These are two people running for the presidency that are well known by the American public for five decades. Both of these people are known entities. This is not like a Barack Obama introduction tour circa 2008. These are known entities. Therefore, people have made a decision, the man or woman on the street, who do you like and why they've made the decision. So I'm suggesting that this is a get out to vote election. And Joe Biden is going to win the popular vote. You know that. I know that even the Donald Trump people know that. So the way Trump wins this is through the electoral college. He came close in 2020.

23:24He lost only by 40 ,000 votes. And so now what is that stake here is how many field offices are going to be in these swing states. And the former president doesn't have enough money to put as many field offices in as the current president. And which is why all the money is going to be important. But I think all this trial is contributing, you know, to the sense that things are off -kilter, the tension is high, the rhetoric is hot at the moment in America, not just around Donald Trump and not just around these trials, but we're seeing it play out, you know, a few miles north of that courtroom where he is in some of these university college campuses in New York.

24:03And we're going to talk about that and what's happening on these college campuses is it really about Gaza or is something else going on and we're going to talk about that after the break.

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