244. How to buy the White House

2 May 2024 · 42 min

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Podcast Notes: The Rest Is Politics - Episode 244: How to Buy the White House

Episode Overview In this episode, hosts Anthony Scaramucci and Katty Kay delve into critical discussions surrounding the influence of money in U.S. politics, the intricacies of campaign financing, and the upcoming presidential elections in Mexico. The conversation explores the implications of financial donations on political representation, the current landscape of the U.S. electoral system, and the significance of the Mexican elections for U.S. foreign policy.

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Key Discussions

Money and Politics in the U.S.

  • Campaign Financing
  • The episode begins by highlighting how money plays a pivotal role in American politics, particularly in presidential campaigns.
  • This election cycle is projected to be the most expensive ever, with billions of dollars expected to be spent.
  • Citizens United Case
  • Anthony explains the landmark Supreme Court decision (Citizens United vs. FEC) which allows for unlimited spending in political campaigns, fundamentally changing the landscape of campaign financing.
  • The conversation reveals how this decision has led to the rise of Political Action Committees (PACs) and Super PACs that operate with significant financial backing from wealthy individuals.
  • The Impact of Wealth on Representation
  • The hosts discuss how campaign financing leads to policies that favor wealthy donors, leaving the average citizen unrepresented.
  • Citing historical context, they examine how lobbying and financial influence in Washington have skewed political priorities.
  • Statistics
  • The increase of dark money (untraceable funds) in U.S. politics has risen by 900% since the Citizens United decision.
  • Comparisons between U.S. and UK election spending illustrate stark differences, emphasizing the excessive financial demands of American politics.

The Mexican Presidential Elections

  • Current Election Landscape
  • The Mexican presidential election is significant, with Claudia Scheinbaum leading the polls as the candidate from the ruling party, and Sochi Galvez representing the center-right.
  • This election marks a historic moment as Mexico is set to elect its first female president.
  • U.S.-Mexico Relations
  • The hosts discuss how the Mexican elections could impact U.S. border policy and immigration issues, which are crucial topics in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
  • Current President AMLO's policies have reportedly reduced border crossings, which could influence U.S. political dynamics.

Political Strategies and Perspectives

  • Anticipated Outcomes
  • Scaramucci speculates on the potential outcomes of the Mexican elections and how they could influence U.S. strategies, particularly for the Trump campaign and the Biden administration.
  • The hosts explore how both campaigns may perceive and react to the election results in Mexico.
  • Comparative Analysis
  • The episode concludes with reflections on how political tactics, including financial backing and media engagement, can shape elections in both countries.

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Key Takeaways

  • The Role of Money in Politics
  • Financial contributions have an outsized influence on political outcomes and policy-making in the U.S.
  • The current system favors wealthy donors and limits the representation of average citizens.
  • Implications of the Mexican Elections
  • The upcoming presidential elections in Mexico may have profound implications for U.S. immigration and border policies.
  • The election is notable for its potential to advance gender representation in politics.
  • Changing Political Landscape
  • With evolving media consumption habits, traditional campaign financing may become less effective, prompting a need for innovative strategies to engage voters.

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Conclusion The discussion in this episode of "The Rest Is Politics" serves as a critical reminder of the intricate relationship between money and political power, demonstrating how these dynamics shape not only U.S. politics but also international relations, particularly with neighboring countries like Mexico. The hosts encourage listeners to think critically about the implications of campaign financing and to stay informed about the evolving landscape of global politics.

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For more insights, consider tuning into future episodes of "The Rest Is Politics" to stay updated on key political developments both in the UK and abroad.

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Transcript

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1:34Hello and welcome to the second episode of the REST's Politics US with me, Anthony Scaramucci. And me, Catti Kaye. So Catti, we're recording on Thursday morning, the day after we met in person for the first time ever on Morning Show yesterday. It was nice to finally meet you, Catti. After all these years, see that? I was wondering whether we finally met, which is a weird way to meet somebody, right? You meet them on a TV set in a live program for about 10 minutes, but I was wondering whether you were slightly regretting your decision to go into this venture. No, obviously you leave a very good first impression.

2:07I was very happy to have makeup on when I met you, Catti. See that? I could hide the bags under my eyes for 10 minutes, but it was great to be with you. What are we going to talk about today? I want to pick up on something that you had referenced last week that caught my attention. About this idea that everything in America, and particularly in American politics, can be traced back to money and to donations. So in the first half of this program this week, we're going to discuss the millions, actually, you know what, let's make that billions of dollars because this election is going to cost billions of dollars that are pumped into presidential campaigns.

2:43This year's race expected to be the most expensive race ever, and we're going to get a better idea of the kind of mysterious, murky, dark world of campaign financing and political mega donations. We're going to get into packs and super packs and Anthony's going to tell you all what they mean because he has a great history in this. And then in the second half, I want to go south of the border and look at Mexico where there is an election coming up next month that honestly, hardly anyone here in America is talking about. But of course, it could have huge consequences for this election in November because whoever is elected the next president of Mexico is going to control to some extent the border with the United States.

3:22And we know that that's a big issue in the US election. So before that though, Anthony campaign financing, and I think we should declare your own background and interest in this and tell a listeners how you became a mover of shaken, not just in the world of Republican campaigns, but also in the world of democratic fundraising as well. Okay. So I think I've told you my background, but I'll just repeat it for this podcast briefly. I am not even an out of burrow person. So so Trump is an outer burrow person. So what does that mean in New York parlance? Well, Caddy, I'm sitting in my office right now, which is in Midtown Manhattan.

3:56You could probably hear the traffic going by. Well, he wasn't born where the action is in the island of Manhattan. He was born in Queens. Okay. I'm from Nassau County. So that's even further out. Okay. So maybe that's the Midlands for the UK or something like that. I just want to explain how out of it, I actually am. And I had my first job interview at Goldman Sachs. I was wearing 100 % polyester caddy K and the partner at Goldman Sachs said, I can't bring you to Goldman like this. You got to go buy natural fiber clothing. I was fully flammable for my first job interview. So yes, I went to Harvard, Posh School, but my dad was a crane operator.

4:36So you have to understand my connection into all of this came through politics. When I got the job at Goldman Sachs, he said, we wanted to go meet rich people. And we want to open accounts for rich people. I had never been inside a country club, never swung a golf club or a tennis racket. And so the way to do this, Caddy was through politics. And I made my first political donation at the age of 29 in 1993 to Rudolph Giuliani for mayor. I was young Republicans for mayor. Why is this important? Because wealthy people gravitate to politics. They go to these events. It helped me build my business.

5:14When Rudy won, I got a parking pass on my car. I could park on two wheels on Madison Avenue, on a fire hydrant. No problem. I had the most exclusive parking pass in New York City. You'd made the big time with your natural fiber. Now, Trump has a chip on a shoulder for being an ad or a burrow person. I could care less if they don't want to let me into a country club or anything like that. That doesn't bother me. Trump didn't get into the exclusive country club out here on Long Island. He built 18 golf courses. You don't like me. I'm going to go run for president so that you have to deal with me.

5:49Okay. It's not explained that the differences in people's personalities, but what's important about this as it relates to fundraising is that is where the action is in the United States. Very wealthy people go to these fundraisers to name drop politicians, but also to influence politicians. We had limits in fundraising back in the day. In January of 2010, the Supreme Court passed a very famous case in the United States. It was Citizens United versus the Federal Election Commission. In that decision, Justice Scalia said, well, it's a First Amendment right. You've got a billion dollars. You can spend all of it on a political campaign.

6:31That's your exercise of your First Amendment right. We set up these things called political action committees. People like me, Gadikay, a billionaire, Elon Musk, can dump tens of billions of dollars theoretically into a political action committee to do whatever we want to affect policy. The nuance is there has to be a Chinese wall between that and the political campaign itself. The campaign is still limited in terms of hard dollar donations to the campaign. Why this is monumental is that it has absolutely skewed the policies and the legislation over the last 14 years. If you want chlorinated chicken in the United States and you don't have that in the UK, but if you want it, you go to these fundraisers, you light up these congressional representatives, the senators, etc.

7:24Then they'll show up and they'll pass legislation to help big food, big pharma, big military. The little guy, Caddy, has been left out of this equation over the last 14 years. I'll just leave you with this one last thought. Harry Truman said when he got the job of the presidency, he said, this is the only job that every single eligible voter in the other jobs are a representative in my district, a senator in my state or local politicians. The presidency is the one job where everybody votes on it. Truman said that he was a lobbyist therefore for everybody. We don't have that anymore. There's no lobbyist for the little guy in the country and it has affected the political system.

8:11That is a great explanation of why Citizens United is so important. I think it's also worth looking at some of the numbers that have resulted in that. Because what happens my understanding Anthony is that with these superbacks, you get all of these wealthy billionaires who can dump as you say all of that money there. In America, it's called dark money. We don't really know where it comes from. It doesn't have to be declared. It's not like campaign funds that have to be declared. You have to say, has this come from small donors, has this come from other people. The dark money in America has increased by 900 percent since Citizens United was passed.

8:49I think that gives people some sense of the impact on the political system of these wealthy individuals. I don't think Americans even understand how out of whack the sums are in their politics compared to other countries. Donald Trump raising 50 million dollars at one fundraiser in Florida last month almost seems kind of normal by American standards. You look at other countries though. You look at like 2019 and Alistair is going to jump on me because I've probably got this number wrong. But as far as my research tells me, Boris Johnson spent 21 million dollars in today's money, the equivalent of 2019.

9:35A year later, Joe Biden in his presidential campaign, not even the Super PACs, this is just his presidential committee, spent $1 .6 billion. That is a multiple of 76 times. So I don't know whether the United Kingdom has bargain basement democracy or whether the US is spending a whole lot of money on something that is not necessarily working any better, but that's 76 times. You know what the difference is? It's the difference between buying a latte at Starbucks and buying a delonging Italian espresso machine. That's the difference. That's how out of whack American politics is in terms of its money.

10:13And no wonder that. So let's say you're running for neighborhood Del Gwokka. Anthony Scaramucci wants to become the town dog walker. The day before the interview, I go and buy you a cup of coffee. But my wealthy neighbor down the road, he buys you a fricking delonging espresso machine. Whose dog are you going to look after better? Is he going to operate the delonging espresso machine for me because I would be absolutely clueless and had a operator. But if he's operating it for me, I'm going with him. But let me make this point to UK listeners. And perhaps some of the American listeners will get this as well.

10:49There are 535 people in our Congress, 100 in the Senate, 435 in the House, one president. There are 536 people that are controlling 26 % of the GDP of the United States, 8 % of the world's GDP. So I just want to put that in perspective for people. You've got 536 people that are descended on every year. You said it's 900%. There's 26 billion dollars in lobbying spent on descending on Washington. Boeing started in Seattle. They moved their headquarters to Chicago. Cadi wasn't close enough. So they brought it to Virginia to sit outside the Pentagon and lobby that government.

11:44Okay. And they want to stay in power more than they necessarily want to serve the public. And so the public is getting processed food, seed oils, cornated chicken. It's getting drug therapies that some are working, some are not working. But there's been a laxity in standards by the FDA, at least most people feel that way. And there's been no audit of the Pentagon in 50 years, Cadi. And so we have trillions of dollars going into the Pentagon. But we don't account for it. And all of this can be traced back to campaign finance, spending and lobbying. And I think it's very, very important for people to understand this because these are the things that go on inside of Washington, that the average American or the average British citizen perhaps is cynical about or disinterested or apathetic.

12:38But if they understood it, they would say, okay, you know what? We probably could come up with better ideas and more efficient incentives for our politicians. The incentives are so misaligned to treat the man on the street or the woman on the street properly in the current society. I mean, they must, you know, every member of Congress I speak to pulls their hair out about campaign finance as well because members of Congress, because of the large summers of money, you have to raise a lot of money, unless you have your own money and you're willing to spend it, you have to raise a lot of money. And it's taking up to about 30 to 40 % of their time is what members tell me routinely is spent on raising money, not on legislating for the American people, not on doing the job they were elected to do.

13:24I don't want to interrupt you, Cadi. But I think they're under selling that. I think it's closer to 50 or 60, but they're embarrassed to tell you that larger number. Yeah, I think you may be right. But what it means as well is it's not just the little person me with my latte trying to get you to walk my dog properly up against my wealthy neighbor. It's, if I'm running for politics, there is starting to be a kind of favoritism, if you like, amongst the party to have wealthy candidates running, right? Because if you are a wealthy candidate running and you're prepared to give your own money, then the party's not going to have to support you with its own finances in order to get you to win that election that you're in.

14:07So you look at, there's a good case of this actually just across the border from DC in Maryland where there's a democratic primary going on for the Senate. And there's a Congressman David Trone who is super wealthy and has made it very clear to voters that he is prepared to spend his own money if they elect him as the Democratic candidate. He's up against an African American woman, Angela also Brooks, who is the kind of darling of the Democratic establishment in Maryland, but she doesn't have money. And you can see, if your Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, you're thinking to yourself, if I get this wealthy guy, when it comes to November, then I'm not going to have to support him so much with campaign funds.

14:46So the little guy is being squeezed out in terms of representation with elected officials. The little guy is being squeezed out in terms of being able to run for politics potentially because they have to raise so much money. And you wonder whether, I mean, I hear your point about, if Americans thought about this more, they would lobby to change the system, but there is such an entrenched value and look at the degree to which, I mean, soon that DeLongue Express and Machine is going to be a Lamborghini because this is just going up. Now you're talking, because I'm a long Island guy that loves cars.

15:18So yeah, I want the Lamborghini. I knew I'd get you there. But this is this is this is going up. And to me, there's no record. You look at the curves. It's a curve that is rising. It's not a curve that shows any signs of the American public saying we have to change this. I mean, and the Robert's Court, by the way, doesn't look like it's a court that sees anything other than out bribery as a form of campaign finance violation. Well, my my short lived experience in Washington. Somebody said to me, well, how did you like the swamp? I said, well, it's not a swamp. It's a gold plated hot tub. These guys sit in the hot tub together.

15:52And if you're willing to play with them, they'll drop you two champagne bottles and Cuban cigars. And if you're not willing to play with them, they'll make up stories to get you out of Washington. And so we have to at least explain it to people so that they know about it at which point they can at least ask their politicians about it. And how do you get reform? If you think like an entrepreneur, which I happen to be, entrepreneurs think zero to one. How do you take something that is nothing and turn it into something? And in our politics right now, we need entrepreneurial politicians to think about how to reset the system or how to reform the system.

16:35And also a bit this to you, there are 27 amendments to that constitution. At constitutions approximately 230 years old, which means that you should be getting an amendment every seven to eight years. And yet we've only had two amendments in the last 30 years. One was a procedural one in 1993. And of course, the big Kahuna amendment was in 1965 the Voting Rights Act. But if we're going to have a constitutional Republican democracy or representative democracy in the United States with a living document known as the Constitution, we have to reset that social contract every generation for a new group of Americans.

17:15And some of the things that we would need to do in my opinion is to reform this outlandest spending. We have created a separate but equal democracy. And I think it's really going to hurt the country long term. I love your long island optimism. Anthony, this is actually going to happen because I don't see either of the parties. And we should make this clear. People I think associate money with a Republican party. And that is not the case. If you look at the current state of the election, actually it's Joe Biden has a lot more money on hand. That is money ready to spend than Donald Trump does. And I know because I had a conversation with two Democratic donors last night who had just hosted a fundraiser where they raised $1 .4 million for the Biden campaign.

18:01And they were surprised they hadn't been asked before. They said it was easy to raise $1 .4 million. This is as much on the Democratic side as it is on the Republican side. And I don't see the lobbying in the country to change. I don't see the political will in either party, which is in a kind of arms race of money at the moment to try and change this. I mean, maybe you're right. Maybe that maybe that is. We agree. No, no, listen, I agree with you. But what I am suggesting it is changeable. I think what happens in our society is the cynicism pervades. And we look at it and say, okay, they have no incentive to change it.

18:37I'm just talking about the potentiality of having a reformer that could come in and honestly explain the situation to the American people. And remember, think like an entrepreneur for one second, there's one voting block in the United States. 144 million people, they vote the exact same way in every single election. You know who that is? The non voter, Gatti. They don't vote. They don't show up at the polls. Imagine an entrepreneurial politician who could go after that market and create a new market of voters. And you don't have to get that many of them to scare the daylights out of the current political establishment.

19:16Which by the way is what your old boss said he was going to do. And did do to some extent in 2016. He brought a whole load of people that hadn't voted before into the electorate. Let's see if he does it this time right. Okay, take us a little bit behind the scenes Anthony. We've given people a history and the kind of politics of this. But you've been there. You've been there on campaigns where people were fundraising. You've donated to campaigns yourself. What's it like when you're being you know tapped up for money or what's it like when you're asking for people to know how hard is it to get this cash?

19:45It's about as horrifying as you would imagine it to be. Okay, it is literally like a first century brothel. Okay, it's like the stuff that you see never been in one, but I just imagine just say just go to Pompeii and look at the murals. Okay, I mean this is as horrifying of an experience as you can imagine because they're all Lucy Goosey with you and they're all flirtatious and flattering. The money gets wired or the check gets right and it's buy by onto the next transaction. And whether we like it or not that's exactly what happens. However, why do people do it? Okay, well some people are idealistic.

20:24They do it because they they're going to affect change, but other people do it because they want the relationship with the relationship with their political leaders or they have a big business incentive where they're going to sit before those leaders and lobby for a policy or lobby for a deregulation or make it easier for a plane to get up in the air when they should be making it harder for a plane to get up in the air or they should make it harder for a drug to pass through the FDA. And so that's why they do it and it's very unseemly. And by the way, I've done it. I admit to it. You can see all of my donations online.

21:03Go on, tell us. Were those donations you made like Obama in 2008, you donated to? Was that idealism? When you donated the Romney campaign, was that idealism? Were you hoping to get something out of these campaigns that would serve your own business interest? So I think this will either make this podcast incredibly successful, Caddy, or people will be horrified and they'll shut it off right now because I'm going to be very real with you. The Obama donation, I had gone to law school with President Obama. We were not classmates. I was a few years ahead of them, even though he's older than me. And one of my closest friends knew him.

21:42It was 2007. I went to one of the social clubs here in New York to meet him. I think it was the University Club. And we were behind stage before you gave his formal remarks. He was then Senator Obama. I had a check in my breast pocket. I went over to the Senator. I said, Senator, I said, you and I didn't really know each other in law school. But I'm about to hand you a big check. Can I lie to my friends and tell them that you and I knew each other in law school? Well, Obama looks at me at the best smile in American politics since Jack Kennedy. He lights up. He looks at me and he's going to tell you why.

22:20If you double the amount of the check, we'll take it back to Hawaii. And I looked at him. I said, you're done. I had another check in my pocket. I ripped it up. I doubled the amount of the check. And I'm going to tell you right now, I've been to more White House Christmas parties during the Obama administration than the Trump administration, because I've been to zero Trump administration, Christmas parties. But that was total idealism. And that was total naivete on my part. I was 44 years old at the time. And I said, I'm never going to meet a president. I'm never going to know somebody personally that's running for the presidency.

22:56So I'm going to write this guy a check and then I'll tell people I did it. And that's how superficial it was. Let's just take from that, you know, the message of what you've just been saying. You wrote President Obama a check. You've even doubled it. You had a good joke about it. And then you got access. You got invitations to White House Christmas parties. Now, maybe that helped your business. Maybe it didn't help your business. It was great name trying. Exactly. It made you look great with your friends, right? So actually, you have just given us a prime example of how the system works. This is a wealthy individual.

23:28Just remember, significance matters to a lot of people, not just for their own personal ego, but they want someone to walk into their office and see a picture of them with the president think, oh, they must be somebody, right? Dom, our producers, they asked me that I played basketball with them. And my friend swear that we did. Okay. My friend swear to that we did. But, you know, I don't remember it 100 percent. But my friend, Jeff Moslow is like, mouche, what are you talking about? Obama had that great outside shot. I used to foul the daylights out of him. I said, okay, I don't remember it. Okay.

24:00And by the way, every professor at Harvard has said that they taught the guy. Now, that was also mathematically impossible. Okay. But I apparently played basketball with them. God bless. But I wrote that check for very superficial reasons. The Romney stuff was different. I was a lifelong Republican. I wasn't in love with some of the policies that Obama had put together in the first term. And so I returned to my Republican roots. And I got heavy into the Romney campaign. I donated to his pack. I was on his finance team. I got heavy into his campaign so much so that by by the time 2016 came around, you know, I was one of the guys.

24:39I was the chairman of the finance committee for Walker. When he dropped out of the race, I rolled into Bush. Trump wanted me to be the finance chairman. I told him I couldn't do it because I was hosting Wall Street Week at the time for Fox. And I would have had to leave the show. And I didn't want to do that. And so Mouche took the job. And Steven is a very good friend and stalled it this day. This is the great thing about politics in America. And you know this, Gadi, I still talk to Trump campaign staffers, current staffers. In fact, I called one last week and he got on the phone. Mouche, is this a butt dial?

25:15What the hell you do? I said, no, I'm calling you because I need a favor. Okay. And so you know how it works. Okay. In the war zone of politics, I still have friends on the campaign. I still have friends in the Obama quarters, the Trump quarters. And money is a liquid asset to these politicians. If you give $5 million to Joe Biden, the Republicans light up because they're like, okay, this guy's rich enough. Maybe he'll give me $5 million. And that's how it works. That's the inside baseball or the inside football of the system. Just before everybody wants to go and slit their wrists because American politics looks like it's just mired in corruption and money and favors that everybody's doing us from Anthony getting to the Christmas parties to chlorinate a chicken.

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26:03I think it is worth reminding people that in 2016, Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump by ratio of two to one. No question. She was also, she had twice the personnel because she had more money, right? She had more money. She said she could have more offices. She had more of the infrastructure. She spent more on advertising. She did more of all of those things that that cash allows you to do. And yet she still lost the 2016 election. So I'm just wondering, are we getting into a world where not just because of television advertising, which takes up an awful lot of the spending of these political action committees and television advertising isn't where people are getting their news anymore.

26:44And so Joe Biden, look at his campaign. He's actually doing a lot more on TikTok than he is on traditional advertising because that's where he thinks he can reach young voters. Are we getting into a world where it's not that the laws will change, but maybe because the mechanism of reaching voters becomes cheaper, or maybe because voters themselves are less easily bought, these huge amounts of money that you raise just might not be as determinative of your potential for actually winning an election. Or am I being optimistic? No, I think it's very insightful. And I think that is the future. I think it's going to be cheaper.

27:21The same way technology has allowed us to deliver things for lower cost. But one thing quickly before we go to break, Hillary Clinton, what she lacked in that campaign was her presence. She had the money, but she didn't go to Wisconsin one time after the convention. And it was felt in Wisconsin and she lost it. One thought for our American audience, just look at Norway, where they don't allow any political ads on radio and television elections are cheap. And I don't know, I'd argue Norway's democracy functions pretty well. What do you reckon, Anthony? Maybe that's just just a little thought out there.

28:01Hey, I'm not going anywhere. Okay, I'm a New Yorker. I love America, but Norway seems pretty good place to travel to. We'll record this podcast in Oslo before the end of the year. It'll be chilly, but we'll be there. Okay, we're going to take a break and we'll be back talking about a little trip I just did down to Mexico and an election that people here in the United States are even really aware it's happening very much.

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29:37Welcome back to the Rest Is Politics US edition. I'm Anthony Scaramucci with CadiK. Cadi, I heard you had a wonderful trip last week to Mexico. And you and I both know Mexico has huge implications for the United States and for the November presidential election. Tell us a little bit about where you've learned down there and the significance of the presidential election going on in Mexico right now. Yeah, full disclosure. First off, I was down there entirely for pleasure with my daughter. I took her for a long weekend. It was a very good way, by the way, to escape nerd prom, White House correspondence dinner weekend, which I'm always happy to get away.

30:17I'm sure you love that fest of journalist and politician smoothing it up in Washington, but I'm always happy to get away. I get an allergic reaction when I enter Washington. Okay, just so you know, go ahead. So my daughter who just defended her PhD thesis is called Maya. And so she wanted to go to Mexico and I thought, well, we'll go to the land of the Maya. And we went down to Merida, which is this very cool city in the Yucatan. And to be completely honest, full disclosure, I knew there wasn't a Mexican election going on this year. I kind of wasn't aware that I was going to land there in full election campaign season.

30:52And the great thing about Mexico is you land, you drive around this tons of political ads painted on every wall. And Mexico on June the 2nd is about to elect its first female president. So it's way ahead of the United States on that one. And the reason it's got these two women, there's the candidate who is 25 points ahead, who's the candidate from the ruling Marena party. She's the successors to the current president. Her name is Claudia Scheinbaum. And she's up against a sitting senator called Sochi Tel. And I'm sure I've mangled that pronunciation, Galvez. And you see the signs for Scheinbaum and Galvez all over Mexico.

31:32And the current president, Amlo, had a policy of bringing women into his cabinet. He had a 50 % female cabinet. He upped the number of women in parliament to 50%. And he wanted a woman to succeed in the president. Mexican president's term limited. The only one term Amlo has served his term. He's up. He wants his successor, Claudia Scheinbaum from the Marena party to succeed him. And so the opposition group from the right, which is a coalition of opposition parties more from the center right, have decided that the only way they can beat this female candidate is to feel the female candidate their own, which is kind of an interesting, it's kind of fun, that the idea that you've got two women running for president of Mexico.

32:15So I think you're right that Americans are not very aware of this election, which has enormous implications because of the border, that the current president, Amlo, has actually stopped border crossing since December. They've declined by something like 40 % since December. And he's done that by instituting new visa rules and by sending people back from the border and by deporting people. So the Biden administration is happy. But what they're worried about is that Amlo, who has, who's a sort of populist and who is very much an incredibly popular figure in Mexico. And even if he's about to be out of the presidency and his successor, Scheinbaum is going to take over, he's still going to be a huge force in American politics.

33:00What the Biden campaign is kind of worried about is, is he going to turn back the spigot of migrants crossing the border in October because he's Amlo sort of likes Trump. I mean, they're both populists. They both feel they're up against the establishment. They both kind of rolled back some of the democratic norms and customs that we're used to. And that's why the Biden administration has been very quiet on some of the things that Amlo has done around human rights, around institutions of democracy, around the flood of fentanyl into the United States. And the border has become a kind of political football between these two countries.

33:39And now it's caught in the middle of two enormous elections. This is going to be the biggest ever election in Mexico. A hundred million Mexicans are going to go to the polls next month. They're going to go to the polls to elect a woman. And they're going to go to the polls in a way that's going to have a consequence. I think, I mean, we've talked about this, the border issue, Anthony. It's going to have a consequence in America's own election in November. And Americans are kind of not even really aware that it's happening. So I want to play strategist with you for a second. So if you were on the Trump campaign, what would you like to see happen in Mexico?

34:10And then conversely, if you were on the Biden campaign, what would you like to see happen? And what do you think their strategies are in terms of dealing with this situation? I mean, you would assume that the Trump campaign would like to see Galvez, who is more from the center right win, right? Because Republican party, Republican coalition. But actually, I think because everybody in Mexico seems to think that Amelo, who's this big popular force in American politics is still going to be there with a lot of influence. And that Amelo seems to like Trump in this strange paradoxical, wonderful way that politics works.

34:48Maybe actually Trump would be kind of happy to have Shinebound win next month and assume that Amelo is going to do him a solid when it comes to the border in October. Now, all of this, this shouldn't be the way that they're thinking. But I think if I was a Republican strategist, that's probably on the Trump campaign. That's probably how I'd be positioning myself. Either way, they're going to have to deal with the Mexican border. This is America's biggest trading partner. It's a huge en route for fentanyl, which is killing Americans all over the country. The border crisis is a crisis and whoever becomes president of Mexico, they're going to have to have United States is going to have deal with that.

35:28Now, Trump just gave this fascinating, I don't know if you read it Anthony, it's great interview and time magazine, which by the way, anyone who ever interviews Trump do it in print and not on television because you get a lot more out of him. And it's a lot more nuanced. And he gave this interview and time magazine this week in which he says that he's going to deport millions of undocumented migrants in the United States. He's going to use the US military to round them up, put them in camps, send them back home, all pretty base play stuff for Donald Trump. It'd be interesting to see how that goes down with whoever is the next Mexican president and whether if it's the woman from the right Galvez, whether she would actually have more sympathy for Trump on dealing with his hardline tactics.

36:12A couple of things. I just want to mention the people if they're interested in the Mexican -American relationship. The Mexicans see the relationship differently than the Americans. The Mexican -American war, which took place in the 1830s and led to a monstrous land grab by the United States where we pushed the Mexican government south of the Rio Grande. Millions of casualties to citizens of Mexico and the pain is still felt in that country. So it's just interesting thing. The Americans don't think about it that much. There's a great book written about this 10 years ago called the Wicked War. And it'll give you some contrast and comparison between the way the Mexicans look at it and the Americans.

36:55But on the time magazine, Mr. Trump is basically unapologetically -tell people that, people like dictatorships and I like dictatorships and I can see myself acting somewhat dictatorial. Isn't that what he more or less said? I mean, it took me 26 minutes to read that article and I read it very carefully. Yeah, I mean, I would recommend everyone to read it because there's really interesting stuff that he says on abortion and whether he would allow, and he basically says, hands off the state. It's up to states whether they prosecute a pregnant woman who terminates a pregnancy or a doctor who terminates a pregnancy.

37:31And he says that would be up to the states to decide. He, as I said, he says he's going to round up illegal migrants and send them back. He's talked about millions of them. And when he's asked, well, is the military's not actually allowed to act against citizens in the United States? He says, well, these people aren't citizens. He kind of describes them as a combating force. He talks about, obviously, he talks about NATO. He doesn't say that he wouldn't pull out of NATO. He says it's legitimate to try and, you know, use tactics that just to try and get them to spend more money and use the threat of pulling out.

38:05He doesn't seem to be very inclined to supporting Taiwan. So there's a whole load of kind of American foreign policy stuff that he's interesting on. Interestingly, he's pretty tough on BB Netanyahu in the interview. More than you might think so. You're right, by the way, just before we finish up on the Mexico stuff, you're right on the Mexico stuff. It seemed very differently from that side of the border. And there is a lot of criticism in Mexico of the fact that it's American demand that makes Mexico the conduit country for drugs into the United States. And if the US could tackle the demand side of things, Mexico wouldn't be this violent country that was messed up because of the you know, that's a very commonly held perception in Mexico.

38:48It's fascinating, but you you you brought up Netanyahu. So I just have to interject because 11 days in the White House, but a year on the campaign with Trump. So I can tell you exactly how he operates. Netanyahu praised President Biden. And he also congratulated President Biden after the election. And that's all you need to do with that borderline personality. Notice Donald Trump. Those are two egg shells that cracked inside of Trump's brain. And now he's on the war path against BB Netanyahu. Okay. And so that happens to everybody that comes in contact with Mr. Trump just so you know. Yeah. So if you are looking to be the next president of Mexico or the next prime minister of the United Kingdom or any other leader that is being elected in the whatever it is, biggest election year in global history, you have got to figure out how you're going to deal with Donald Trump.

39:48And that is why you see a stream of foreign leaders, including David Cameron, go down to Mar -a -Lago to figure out if Donald Trump gets elected. What does that mean for my country and how am I going to manage to deal with it? Well, the only thing that works, Gatti, is all praise all the time. I see only thing that works. And as political leaders know, particularly foreign leaders that have their own interests in their own countries, as an impossibility all praise all the time. You know who figured this out was Shinzo Abe, the late prime minister of Japan who in his memoirs that were published posthumously, wrote that the way to deal with Trump is to have given the foodie likes hamburgers, give him lots of expensive gifts, gold plated golf clubs, and give him entertainment like karaoke and whatever so that he actually feels that he's having a good time and make the diplomacy totally transactional.

40:47Don't make it about ideology, don't make it about America's leadership role in the world, don't make it about democracy or autocracy, just make it a transaction and keep it economics and then you can deal with Donald Trump. Well, if Goal Hanger would let us do a podcast exclusively on Trump's insecurities, it would be a 24 -hour podcast, Gatti, okay? We could spend 24 hours on that topic. Well, I think we've gone right around the world there, Anthony, so we're going to leave it there for this week and we will see you all next week. Okay, well, it's always great to be with you, Gatti. Hopefully I get the chance to see you again in person soon.

41:22Please join us again this coming Friday.

From the publisher

Is there too much money in US politics? Why do people donate to presidential campaigns? Who are the two women vying to be Mexico’s next president? 

Join Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci for this week's episode of The Rest Is Politics: US as they answer all these questions and more.
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