249. Question Time: Political honeymoons - how quickly could the public turn on Keir Starmer?

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1:35Welcome to the RESTYS PORITIS question time with me, Hans Ducamble and me David Gulk. Now David, I want to start with a question about you and about the man that you're sitting in for. Robbie Meeks. David is clearly Rory's political hero. Don't we hear it? So that begs the question, who is David's political hero and why? Well, I think it would be rude of me not to say Rory's church. That would be true. So let's listen to the rest of it. No, no, no, no, no. Well, I mean, Rory is a bit... I did campaign for the in the leadership race in 2019. I don't really have sort of one political hero. I have sort of moved politically towards the centre.

2:11I was a big Margaret Thatcher, Fannister Lamontcher. I think she was a great prime minister, but I would find a few areas of difference. I suppose in terms of in my time in Parliament, Ken Clark was terrific. And here was someone who knew what he thought, practical, robust, but moderate, thoughtful, really impressive. So I got to know him more actually my last few years in Parliament. He was an MP before I was born. And we finished at the same time and we were kind of allies in the sort of events of 2019. But I thought Ken Clark was a pretty splendid fellow. That's good. I'm pleased to say that my nephew is Danny for Labour and his constituency.

2:49So hopefully that will become a Labour gain. Who else then? Go back in history. So go back in history. So Robert Peel, if we want to go back there, I thought, you know, Conservative Party leader largely formed the Conservative Party, but then sort of split. He was sort of the moderate end and lost out to the sort of more extreme little Englanders. So I suppose I have a degree of empathy there with Robert Peel. I'm more pro -Gladsden than disraily. I think I'd rather approve of Gladstone as a sort of treasury man and the sort of fiscal orthodoxy and free trader aspect of it. So that's kind of where I would come from there.

3:28I think Churchill was obviously a great figure, flawed, but a great figure. So those are a few. Right. Next question. We got one from Jordan Coombs saying the POA, the Prison Office of the Association, are calling for a Royal Commission into the whole criminal justice system. Given the crises in prisons, what do you think is required to save a prison system in crisis? Will it take the death of an officer or another strange raise? That's interesting. I think Jordan Coombs, if I'm right, is the POA representative at Hull? Yes. Prison. I think I saw that on his social media. And the question also from Mike Seer, given the scourreating report on ones with prison, how would you propose to convert it from a warehouse back to a functional prison?

4:13I mean, Rory and I talk a lot about prisons, as you know. And I do think we are sleepwalking to a terrible disaster in some of these prisons. And I'm sure that's why Jordan's asking that question when he says, will it take the death of an officer or another strange raise riot? Assults on prison officers are pretty high. Conditions for prisoners in some of our older prisons are terrible. I was very pleased as the world this weekend on Sunday devoted virtually the whole of their program to the issue of prisons and this report on ones within particular. I just wonder from your perspective as a former justice secretary and Lord Chancellor, do we take prisons seriously enough, not just in terms of the punishment side, but also the state of our prisons estate?

4:54Not really. It's not a big enough priority. We face some big challenges, some long -term and short -term challenges. So there's issues at the moment. We've got a lot of prisoners on remand. That's putting a great deal of strain on the prison population. We are pretty well at capacity, which is not where you want to be. You've got a lot of overcrouding. It makes it very difficult. If you've got trouble some prison, you actually want to reduce the population, get it back under control. The fundamental issue though is our prison population has grown very rapidly. So you go back to 1993. We had something like 43 ,000 people in prison.

5:30Today it's more than double that. It's 87 ,000. I think we've got in prison. Our incarceration rate by European standards is really high. So for every 100 ,000 people in Norway, 55 are inside the Netherlands, 65. You get to Germany, it's 67. France, it's 107. England and Wales, it's 143. It's 141 in Scotland, largely the same. So that's a big prison population and largely caused by longer sentences, which successive governments have constantly demanded. And there is always a debate saying, if you really care about this issue, then there should be a specific crime with a longer sentence and so on.

6:15And over time, that just builds up. Now, if we're going to do that, then we have to spend a lot more money on new prisons, keeping someone inside is expensive. It costs you £35 ,000, £40 ,000 a year, I think, for every one person in silent, I can't help thinking if other countries can cope with much lower incarceration rates. In fact, if we could cope with much lower incarceration rates, the 1980s, then there must be a better way because putting people in silent, very hard to prepare them for the outside world, very hard to rehabilitate. It's important that we do more. I think it's consistent focus of recent justice secretaries about employment and what have you.

7:01But when the prison population is under the pressure that it is, we're always going to struggle to cope. And frankly, prison spending is not a priority with the public. There are no votes to be one on this issue. I wish it was otherwise the case, but there aren't. And it's always going to be the case that it's going to be an underfunded area. Yeah, but that's why I mean, I really do hope Keir Starmer with his background and his history. He knows more about this, probably than anybody. And I'm sure he also knows that the system as it works is failing. So, you know, I think that this, we need a completely different approach on this.

7:37And I agree it's politically difficult. But if we're serious about tackling the underlying problems that have led to this doubling, then we've got to stop this kind of idea that anybody does anything wrong, it's got to get banged up. And, you know, once they're there, we forget about them, which feels to me is where we are now. We're hoping to do an entire episode on prisons from inside a prison with the Justice Secretary. Your successor, Alex Chor, but in the meantime, you want to talk about Labour. Okay, one from Ian Bellis. We'll Labour get much of a post -election honeymoon, if any. And closely related, how does Keir Starmer keep the balance between change and renewal?

8:12And we can't fix it all immediately. We'll have much of a honeymoon. I suspect that if Labour get a majority, there will be a sense of widespread relief that the Tories have gone. I think that will give them the space for a lot of goodwill and hopefully a lot of energy. But I don't think it will be long because I think that the challenges that if the Labour government will face are going to be enormous. I think the press will become pretty vile pretty quickly. I think you're already seeing the starting of that with Angela Rainer to a less recent week, Keir Starmer. I then think that people's expectations, even though as the questioner suggests, Keir Starmer is trying to keep them relatively low.

8:58He's not promising the Earth. He is saying a decade of natural renewal. This is going to take a long time. But the expectations of change will be, I think, pretty high. So getting that balance right is going to be a real problem. And one of the, we're seeing it in Australia, we're seeing it in Germany, where governments that have come in, as it were from the right to the left, I think they do get judged more harshly more quickly. And that is a big challenge. We talked in the main podcast about the need for Labour to have that sense of government project. That is what I hope somebody is thinking about very deeply.

9:29And in the honeymoon period that might be quite short, should the priority be prolonging the honeymoon or do the difficult stuff early? Do the difficult stuff early? Look, the honeymoon will be whatever it is. I used to keep, we had a very, very long political honeymoon. And I used to keep in my left hand drawer in my desk in number 10. I used to keep these cuttings of Sunday's right -throughs that the big Sunday broadsheets do, which started. This was the week where the Blair honeymoon finally ended. And they went on for about three years. So Keir will not get a three -year honeymoon. Absolutely guaranteed.

10:03So I think you do have to think about the long -term difficult things and get them done. So let's go back to one of your times. You were part of Theresa May's cabinet. What sort of honeymoon do she get? Well, actually, to be fair, her first year was a bit of a honeymoon period. Without an election. Without the period before the election. So she came in in 2016 after the referendum. Politics actually wasn't that much about the referendum really for that first period. Certainly, cabinet wasn't talking about Brexit very much. Really? No, no, not for the first year. Hardly at all. What was the elephant was in the room there as well?

10:39Well, it was something was going on. But there was things were kept really clicks. So within number 10, she was making speeches and a party conference speech that October, where suddenly a load of red lines were announced. No, we didn't know about that. So that was held really tight. But you know, it was being criticised for not consulting the cabinet. No, no. Well, if you talked to Philip Hammond and the recent Tim Shipman book covers some of this, the extent to which people didn't really know what was happening at that point. I wonder about 2017. 2017? Well, no, that was the opposite of honeymoon.

11:19What is the opposite of honeymoon? I don't know. I suppose so. It wasn't very pleasant. Not as much fun as honeymoon. So there, obviously Theresa May had lost her majority. And there was a spell of Kenchie Staggeron, which she could. But immediately, the wind was taken out with the government. We had no majority. We had this huge task of Brexit ahead. I think the writing was on the wall pretty well immediately. We got the election results that night. OK, David, here's one for you. Where's one for both of us, I guess? Jesback. Why does politics ignore the South West? Especially Somerset, Dorset, Devon and Cornwall.

12:00We're looking at big funding. Didn't that's true? Funding. I'm not sure it's necessarily right on funding. I mean, there are big issues in the South West, I think, at the moment, over things like HS2, or there was a bigger issue when HS2 was going ahead and saying, well, we're not getting any benefit from this. I think there is something about how in the national media, the South West doesn't get that much attention. Partly, as a political battleground, partly because it's largely, not completely, but largely conservative liberal Democrats, rather than the big issue that determines who's prime minister, which is the conservative Labour battle.

12:35So the focus will tend to be more on the kind of red wall or the traditional marginal seats mid -sized towns. But because Labour aren't really, other than in the cities, they're not usually a big player in the South West of England. So I think it gets obscure. 2015, one of the big stories of that general election was effectively the Lib Dem wipeout in the South West as we took all their seats. And that, I think, caught people by surprise. It didn't really get the media attention. It might have done. There's a big story there that went under the radar until the results came in. Now, this time round, this general election, could be really interesting.

13:11There were some seats where Labour in fact are very competitive. Not just the usual, you know, Plymouth and Exeter ones, one or two others. And the Liberal Democrats are definitely hoping for a big revival in the South West. So a lot of Southwest conservatives. So it could become a form. It could become a form. I can remember when Shredder was German Chancellor and he was chairing the summit where there was sort of in the European Union structural funds. And I think I'm right that the moment when he told Tony Blair to, how app, do you speak German? I'd date him for it. Or how app basically means F off was when Tony was, Tony decided he'd to go back into back to get more money for the Highlands and Islands and Devon and Cornwall.

13:53So it was. We were fighting for the Devon and Cornwall. And admittedly, we didn't win everything we wanted at that time. But I think there's another point worth making here. Who's the most Western member of the cabinet? Do you know the answer to that? I don't know. No, I don't know. So, for example, when we were in government, we had so many very, very prominent members of the government who came from the Northeast. Tony obviously searched for you. Alan Milburn, Jack Cunningham, Mo Molem, Steve Buyers. We had a whole range of cabinet ministers who were from one region. And I think that probably did help that region.

14:27I can win, were, John Win David Pinhalligan. Yes, was the MP, Liberal Democrat MP for for Turo. And I remember he had a profile beyond, beyond his area and almost beyond his party and his tragedy, he got killed in a car crash. So you need those MPs who are going to project a region. You also of course do need. This is why I was so sad. I think that Bristol decided to get rid of their mayor. I think having those big figures, we've seen it in the recent mayor elections, big regional figures, I think, can help a region. I'm sure that's right. I suppose I remember she's seen that comes from Hampshire, which is not the Southwest, but it is Southwest adjacent to the NPP for Northeastern.

15:04But yeah, there's over the years say, well, Jacob Reese Morgue, of course, famous, some of said MP Lee and Fox, no longer in the cabinet. No longer in the cabinet. Yeah, Liam Fox, he was Bristol. It's another summer set seats. But he's not in the cabinet. George Eustace used to be in the cabinet no longer. Well, I guess what we're saying is select yourself. Yes, get some cabinet ministers. Yes, get some cabinet ministers. Great cabinet material of these. That's the way forward. Okay, David, quick break and then we'll get back with more questions.

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17:15Got a question about Catalonia. We've had their elections this week. Paul Rivera, do you have an opinion on the independent movement in Catalonia? Well, I have an opinion on everything. Of course you do. Well, these are. We've talked a lot on the podcast about all these elections going on. And I don't suppose there are that many regional elections that we cover. But I think the Catalonia elections are very, very interesting. Because the socialists are one. And that does appear to be an endorsement of Sanchez, the Prime Minister, the National Prime Minister, who's been trying to normalize relations, not least through an amnesty for those that were some of them still on the run because of the referendum that was called and their reaction to it.

18:00The numbers, so basically what's happened is the independentists are no longer able to form a majority. So it's a big, big win for Sanchez and the socialists. And where that takes the independence debate, I don't know, but I suspect in the backwards direction. So seems to me, and is there a one -aid pattern? Because people, I mean, Matthew Powerist, at a piece of the weekend, suggesting that what's happening in Catalonia, what's happening in Scotland, Quebec, separatist movements seem to be running out of steam a little bit. Do you think there's a general pattern there or is there a one -off? I wonder where the part of it is that the pattern is less about separatism than about in competency.

18:37So that the, so in Scotland, I think the, it's partly been about the SMP have been in Power for Solar, so their central message is being rejected. And light was, I think, a little bit with Catalonia is this sense of, you know, we're ever going to talk about anything apart from independence or we're ever going to get on and just try and deliver the stuff that we want delivered. So I don't know whether it's anti -separatism. I also do think, sorry to go on about my, you know, the elephant in the room, I do think that the consequences of Brexit for the UK has had an impact around Europe and beyond.

19:08Of people saying, you know, playing around with these long -established constitutional arrangements can sometimes do more harm than good. Yeah, Brexit, a force for conservatism, constitutional conservatism. Is that one is? That sounds good to me. Yeah. Now listen, while we're talking on elections, last week we had a long discussion about the South African election. And we got a lot of feedback, some of it very, very positive, but one piece of feedback from a few people. And I wish I'd picked it up at the time because it sort of, it sounded wrong, but Rory gets so upset when you rebut him live on air.

19:39But this one's from Pierre Navelli. Can you please fact check the completely wrong South African statistics for your more recent episode? The statistic that he's referring to is Rory said that there were now 300 ,000 white South Africans. And I think he was looking at a piece of briefing paper that was referring to one city. The facts are there are over four and a half million white South Africans. So apologies to all who listened to what I hope was otherwise a very informative debate about the South African elections. Alex, so we've got a question. I think you'll enjoy this one, get your teeth into this form just down as Queen Mary University.

20:16The Prime Minister is using a key sector as a play thing in a doom to fail election campaign. Increasing international student numbers was a strategy five years ago. They bring in billions of pounds. How do we prevent this gambling with the security of the country for one party's election campaign? Well, I think you can get your teeth into that as well. I'm sure you don't disagree with me that much on that one. On this one, I think no, I think we'll be agreeing agreeably. So it's right to point out, it really wasn't that long ago where the government was saying we want to bring in 600 ,000 international students.

20:48They bring in an awful lot of money. They cross subsidise British students. It increases our soft power. All these people go off around the world, you know, looking back fondly. One would hope on their time in the UK. Now it's all about tightening up immigration numbers. And I have to say I agree with the implicit message in the question. I think this is short -sighted. I don't think this is in the interests of the country. I think it's absolutely right, by the way, to deal with bogus colleges and abuses of the system. And there wasn't a issue. I remember when we came in in 2010, we did feel that there were some abuses of the system that they need to be addressed.

21:30But overall international students seem to me really important for this country. It's important export sector. If you like, we should be teaching as many people as possible as we can. Absolutely. And you mentioned soft power there. We did some polling recently that you probably heard us talk about in the podcast. Our university sater is a massively important part of our soft power because it's where we can provide intellectual leadership. As you say, there are people who some come here and settle and they make a contribution all sorts of different ways. Others come here and then they go to the rest of the world.

22:03But as a guy on the radio this morning from a curd who was talking about, he was incurred his stand and he was talking about, I can't even remember what he's on about, but he made the point that he knows Britain well because he was educated here and he's got very, very fond memories, etc. That stuff matters. And I think that we talked on the main podcast about Rishi Soonak's strategy and it feels to me like he is somebody who, if he was given a free hand, would not be necessarily saying what he says about the university sater, but he's being pushed into it because he thinks he has to keep this kind of right wing tail attached to the dog and as a result, they're wagging him.

22:40Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, I think at heart, Rishi Soonak is a bit of, I've described as sort of treasury man, which is focus on the economy, do the right thing economically grow the economy as much as you can. There are lots of areas where he and I might disagree on what it would be, but I think those are what he aspires to do. And I think that the treasury argument on international students is to be very pro. Yeah, stop the bogus ones, but honestly, they add to the economy and they make us a more dynamic nation. So yeah, I think there is a degree in which he is pandering to the anti -immigration right of the party.

23:17So Alex, I think this is a question for you from Kaiser. Why do the Labour left seem to hate Stama more than Sinak? Oh, good question. Very, very good question. And I think there's something in it. I suspect it's not that they don't lose Soonak for kind of being a Tory Prime Minister who's, you know, entitled and not elected and all that stuff, but they certainly put their energies into attacking Kierstama much more. Partly because there was always been elements in the side of the Labour Party for whom politics begins and ends in the debate inside the Labour Party. Other you have some of those in the Tories, but fewer.

23:52And secondly, I guess because they think that he stood on a deliberately, this goes back to what we're talking about in the main podcast when Morgan McSweeney was helping and becoming leader of the Labour Party, I think they understood that to win and to get the votes needed to win, he was going to have to project himself to those who would be voted for Jeremy Corbyn. And I think that was a very deliberate strategy, put your ruthless strategy in its own way because most of those promises have either been watered down or some of them completely ditched. So I think that's probably why they basically don't think that he's the same as Jeremy Corbyn.