250. TRIP US: Why Trump won't go to jail

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1:19Hello and welcome to TheRestlessPolitics .us. I'm Katty Kaye. It's me Anthony Scaremucci. How are you, Katty? Well, I'm happy as anything because I'm out in sunny California. I took that long, long flight. Every time I do that flight, I can't believe it's almost six hours. It's almost as far to fly from Washington, D .C. to LA as it is to fly from Washington, D .C. to London. But you feel like you've come to a different world. And I'm here actually. I've come out to interview Magic Johnson, the legendary basketball star, which I'm super looking forward to because he is so charismatic and has a great story and is an amazing businessman as well as having been, of course, part of the dream team.

1:57That's the Clipsing My Week. I'm sitting here grinding it out on Wall Street, observing the American political scene. If Magic manages to get me to pick up a basketball, and I'm hoping he's going to teach me a couple of shots, I have never been on a basketball court. So if you can actually transform even me into a semblance of somebody who knows who I'd even hold a basketball, it will show why he's such a genius. Okay, so since you've mentioned that, if you could somehow get me on a cricket field and explain that game to me, I'd be a very happy camera. I am definitely the wrong person to be doing that.

2:29Your your learn, anti -man knowledge of sports is suboptimal. Okay, so let's get on with the show. Something that we actually do know something about. We are going to look today at what would happen to the presidential race if Donald Trump is found guilty in that man having hush money trial. There was some very important testimony from Michael Cohen. Somebody you know will get into that that we should talk about this week and what the various options are coming out of that trial. And then after the break, we're going to explore the Biden campaign. Of course, there's the big announcement that there are now going to be two presidential debates.

3:04President Biden has agreed to those. Then some polls that came out from the New York Times that the Biden team have told me they absolutely disagree with. So let's start with the trial. The prosecution is trying to show that the Trump organization falsified business records in order to hide hush money payments to a porn star so that the election would not be derailed for them. And they have to show that Donald Trump knew about this whole scheme that there was criminal intent. Right, exactly. There's two things going on. We're falsifying our business documents. So there's a tax issue there as well as just business fraud.

3:44And then the second thing has to do with the way finance laws work in the United States. You can't take your corporate money and put it into your campaign. You take your personal money and put it in your campaign. And so if you're going to pay a porn star to keep her mouth shut as you're running up to the election. Okay, that's fine, but you got to write a personal check. But you probably don't want Malanya to see the personal check. So what he did was he set up a mechanism to have his fixer, a corporate lawyer of his, by the name of Michael Cohen, to do this. And so what ended up happening is they set up this scheme.

4:19Michael paid the porn star. And then they had a reimbursed Michael through the corporation. Now from a legal perspective, that's illegal. And then of course, the Mr. Trump know about it. And Michael, because of Mr. Trump's reputation of not paying people, recorded him without his knowledge. Now in our state, it's a one party state. So just for UK listeners, what does that mean? I can record Kadi K on a phone call because I've given permission. It's a one party state. There are certain states in this union where you need both parties. I have to say, hey, Kadi, I'm recording you right now. Just want to give you the heads up.

5:00And you have to say, that's fine. Please record me. So he recorded Donald Trump without his permission. And he's showing that as a receipt of this criminal malfeasance. So that's the prosecution side. Let me give one moment on the defense. The fence is saying that Mr. Trump did not know about it. So therefore, there's no criminal intent. This was done by people inside of his organization without his knowledge. And then secondarily, everything that Michael Cohen is saying is lie. And Michael Cohen was convicted for perjury lying under oath in the court and served jail time for this. So he's now an ex -fellon.

5:39So the admissible evidence that Michael's bringing to the case is all lies. And you as a juror should discount everything that he's saying. And Michael Cohen is significant because he was the long time lawyer for Donald Trump, kind of a conciliary type figure was sort of obsessed with the Trump family, got very in -hoc with them, did a lot of... A groupie. He was a groupie, but he was also a paid groupie. And it was his job to make bad stories about Donald Trump go away. So it was Michael Cohen who was the intermediary between the media outlet and stormy Daniels and Donald Trump. And that's what we've been hearing about this week.

6:23I want to just say this to you about Michael Cohen. Michael Cohen is the example of Trump flotsam. He is the wreckage thrown overboard by Donald Trump. And so he's aggrieved and he's bitter, but I think he's honest. I think he's truthful. Now I like Michael. I went to see him in jail and I ended up in the transcript this week while you were heading out to LA, Blanche, the defense attorney. He says, Michael, is it or is it not true that a gentleman by the name of Anthony Scaramucci came to visit you at Otisville, the federal penitentiary, in October of 2019. And Michael said, yes, and is it or is it not true?

7:03Anthony was trying to work with you to get your sentence shorted. And he stumbled on that question. Okay, but then he eventually admitted that I did. So I got asked that this week, well, did you go up there and try to get his sentence shortened? Yes, I have nothing to hide. Michael's a friend of mine and in a neighborhood like the one I grew up in, Michael's not the first person I've been to visit in a jail. I just hasn't been, you know, when your friends are in trouble, Caddy, I know you're very posh. I happen to have grown up non -posh. When you've got your friends in trouble, you go towards them.

7:38You don't go away from them. We're going to do an episode on all of the Anthony Scaramucci friends that he's visited in jail and who they were, all part of the family. Yeah, there's lots of syllables in the last names, by the way. I don't remember any short, Anglican last names that I visited in jail. But here's the point that I'm making about this. Of course, I tried to help him get his sentence shortened, because he was a friend of mine and that's what friends do for friends. I think it was interesting that they brought it up because they were trying to say that there was something devious to that, but the truth be told there was nothing devious about it.

8:13And by the way, don't ever go to jail. All viewers and listeners listening out there, even the minimum security places in the United States are terrible. That was a public service announcement from Mr. Anthony Scaramucci. Boys and girls behave so that you do not end up in an American prison. There's one other thing I think viewers and listeners should hear why is this important? Because Mr. Trump could be found guilty in this case, scatty, and then how does that impact the campaign? Number one, I think it has no impact on the campaign. Because what are they going to do with Mr. Trump? They're going to arrest Mr.

8:46Trump and put him in jail for this. I don't believe that they will do that. Could they find him? Yes. Could they provide some level of solitary, ankle bracelet, home confinement? They could do something like that for a week, two weeks, a month. Maximum that they'll do that. Let's say that someone would push back and say, well, no, Anthony, this is a felony. And this is minimum requirement of one year in jail. The secret service and the US marshals are not going to let the former president and the United States go to jail. It's just not going to do it. All the stories that Rikers prison, they are having conversation.

9:26Rikers prison, which is the famous prison in Manhattan, just outside Manhattan about how they're having conversations about how they would accommodate the secret service. And who is the poor secret service guy who gets the bum job of having to go and spend time in prison with the former president? Yeah, I agree with you. I don't see him going to prison. So that's the news flash for everybody listening. And the UK listeners listening in, there is a club of the presidency. They're not going to put each other in jail. They'll threaten it. They'll rabble rouse. They'll save a rattle. They're not going to jail.

9:54So now what happens to the campaign? I think that this is a total and complete non -event for the campaign. It's marginally helped them on fundraising because he is sending out letters. What was me? I'm the victim. This is what we're calling law fair. They're using the criminal procedure system to attack me as a form of war in a presidential political campaign. That is unfair to Joe Biden, by the way, and that's actually not true. But that's what he's saying. And then he's got all of his roofs. This is the most entertaining part of this for me. They're showing up at the court, Caddy. Dress like Donald Trump.

10:31They've got the extra ones. Matching ties. I know. I like that. Did they all go to what they went to Bloomingdale's together and all bought red ties? It looks like a lot of polyester to me. I think they were at TJ Maxx or this was like Amazon Basic. I think every one of them look fully flammable for their television appearances. They just had too much petroleum on, but they had the cuff links on and they had the tie longer that it should be. And watch me. And for those that are listening, they had their hands in the little circle moves. In the little adult community. In the accordion move like Trump.

11:02So they're mining Trump to let Trump know that not only are we with you, but we're trying to be you. They are all auditioning for the VP in front of that courthouse. So they all want that VP nomination desperately. And so I had a couple of reactions that. Number one, JD Vans, you got to shave your beard. Mr. Trump hates beards. Okay. So when you're showing up with the red tie, you get the beard on, no bueno. And then the second thing, I got really bad news for you guys. You got to go 13 for 10 for Donald Trump. I know you're out there trying to go 10 for 10. It's mathematically impossible to go 13 for 10.

11:38Meaning you can never please Donald Trump. He'll always find something to back the rock and roll Volkswagen van over your forehead at some point in your life. Talking of 13 for 10, let's just look back up a little bit and see how this trial could pan out in terms of whether he has found guilty, innocent or that other issue of there being a hung during its declared a mistrial. All 12 members of the jury are sitting there listening to Michael Cohen, who is the key witness in this trial because he is the one that organized the payments to Stormy Daniels and he is the one who stood up there in court and said that Donald told him to just do it.

12:18Apologies to Nike, Michael Cohen says that Donald Trump got there. And he made these payments to Stormy Daniels on Donald Trump's behalf. That's what he's told the members of the jury. So the jury, all 12 members of the jury could and we think it's going to be next week could go away having heard all of the evidence and they could decide he's guilty or 12 of them. Or they could go away and one of them, only one of them needs to, could come back as actually, you know what, I don't think Donald Trump is guilty, even though all my other 11 jurors think he's guilty, I think he's innocent. At which point we have a hung jury, which means there's a mistrial, which means what, Donald Trump is innocent or he's guilty.

12:57That's the most likely scenario. Is there one jury? Yeah, there's one make America great again, passionate Trump cultists on that jury. That's not going to budge and the jury is hung. Or a member of the jury who just has listened to Michael Cohen and they have heard the defense say time and again, Michael Cohen is a liar. He's lied before. He's lied before under oath. Why on earth would you trust him? He's been to jail. He's not a reliable witness and they will go away and they'll say, actually, you know what, the prosecution's main witness. I just don't think he's a stand -up guy. I don't believe him.

13:30And so you get a hung jury. So then he's, I mean, also, as I suppose it's possible that all 12 members go away and decide he's innocent. I think you're right in terms of the politics of this. I don't see how it has much impact on the campaign. I mean, in a way, I would flip it and wonder if he's either acquitted and the jury will find some innocent or it's a mistrial because you have a hung jury. I see a scenario in which actually all of this benefits Donald Trump and that he manages to get that small sliver of people who voted for Joe Biden in the last election, but don't like Joe Biden anymore at the moment.

14:05He's got like 7 % of them. He manages to persuade them that you see, look, the system is rigged against me. I'm like you. I am a victim of the system. I'm a victim of the establishment. And that's where his genius has been during the course of this whole legal procedure. I don't think it's just that it doesn't hurt Donald I think there's a way in which the most like, you know, let's come back in two weeks Anthony and he's found completely guilty and then we have a different scenario, right? But if there's a hung jury or he's found innocent, I think this could help him. I'm going to agree with you that I'm a margin is going to help him, but I also know the country and you've lived here for 25 years.

14:43This country has the attention span of a fruit fly. Yeah, maybe a teensy fly. I was going with a net and there's a great website in this country called twoweekoldnews .com and you can go look at it and two weeks ago we were banging the drum on something totally different and we're banging the drum on today in terms of what our mass hysteria is and this trial is going to be way in the rear of you mirror come election day. I have a question about Michael Cohen. Is there a scenario in which Donald Trump mishandled this relationship because it's fine to have all of these hangers on and Donald Trump has a long history of not being loyal to people who have, you know, sweated blood for him over the years.

15:29But the only one who's really turned against him in a way that has potentially had a huge impact on him is Michael Cohen and and it was about, you know, Michael Cohen is bitter because he wasn't taken to Washington to work in the White House after Donald Trump won in 2016. He is bitter because he didn't get his annual bonus. These are, these are small, rookie errors. If you're going to have somebody who knows that much about you and has that many secrets about you to whom you have said Michael Cohen says when Michael Cohen asked him, I mean, it was extraordinary testimony this week when Michael Cohen asked Donald Trump, you know, are you worried about upstairs, meaning Melania?

16:08Donald Trump's reply was, oh, don't worry about that. Even, you know, if it ends, I won't be on the market for very long. I mean, Michael Cohen knew a lot of Donald Trump's CD business and Donald Trump kind of, as you say, tossed him over the edge without a life raft and he should have given him a gold plated life raft to keep him quiet. To me, it is the blind spots of Mr. Trump's personality and in my prediction, he won't be the guy that does the most damage. I think Mike Pence is going to be the guy that does the most damage and Mike Pence was left out to dry in a different way. Mike Pence was told, use this cock -a -mame procedural thing at the Electoral College vote and just want to explain quickly to UK listeners.

16:56The United States, you have a popular vote and then each state, depending on if the candidate won the state, they get to send their electors to the Electoral College. The Electoral College voted and then the House of Representatives and the Senate approve the vote. Of course, who's the president of the Senate? That would be the vice president of the United States. And Michael Pence, Mike Pence was pushed by Trump to do something procedurally illegal to assert a cause for President Trump to stay unconstitutional to stay in power. Mike Pence didn't want to do that and there was a premeditated insurrection on the Capitol.

17:42There was violence at the steps of the Capitol into the Capitol buildings and Mike Pence genuinely feels like his life was threatened by Trump's supporters. Well, they were chanting hang Mike Pence, so it was a fairly reasonable assumption. They had a gallows, you know, with the hanging news and the whole thing. And so Mike Pence, to me, is going to do, there are two Michaels here, Michael Cohen and Michael Pence. Mike Pence is going to do more damage to Donald Trump. Why? He was the sitting vice president on the ballot with Donald Trump and he has denounced him and he says under no circumstances, will he endorse him?

18:24And he's galvanized about 40 people, Caddy K, 40 people that work for Donald Trump in the inside circle. And I submit to everybody rhetorically, if the 40 of us worked at a pharmaceutical company, we told you this drug is going to kill you. Or we worked at an airline manufacturer and the plane's going to come out of the sky or an automobile company. We do then get in the car. So you have 40 people that are galvanizing and organizing. And Mike Pence will be the ringleader of those people to explain the danger of Donald Trump. So this mistake of Trump by being asymmetrically loyal, expecting loyalty one way, dishing and transacting with everybody negatively, if they're not in the moment, going 13 for 10 for Donald Trump, this wreckage is going to come back to Hauntum come November.

19:21Yeah, Michael Pence also, I was down in Arizona at a Trump memorabilia store. Apparently it's the biggest Trump memorabilia store. Where they're barf pigs on the way in or you have to take drama mean or something like that. It's a very good site of tourism. You know, forget the statue of Liberty, go to a Trump memorabilia store. And the best selling item is a t -shirt with a picture of Mike Pence behind bars saying Mike Pence, traitor number one. Because the Trump people hate Mike Pence for what he did on January 6th. The other thing is that Mike Pence has the virtue in terms of being a kind of hero, a Shakespearean hero in this play of not having organized payments allegedly to porn stars or lied or bullied people or you know, he's a stand -up kind of evangelical guy who perhaps unlike Mike Johnson actually does live by the Bible.

20:11We don't know if Mike Johnson lives by the Bible, but it was a very funny site to see Mike Johnson, the speaker of the house who said if you want to know my world view, just read the Bible, turning up outside the trial in New York this week. Cassidy, anybody that says they live by the Bible, they don't live by the Bible. Okay, when those evangelicals are coming for me, I'm like, watch your wallet. Okay, because these guys, they don't live by the Bible. But the Americans secretly and not so secretly, they like the cheekiness of Donald Trump. Bit Romney, the Kendall, too perfect for the American people.

20:44Donald Trump hiding the sex with the porn star with the hush money payments. There's a weird cheekiness to that at the American people like. I've spoken to people in the Trump campaign six months ago who said to me, okay, it's not great if this goes to trial, but you know what? If it goes to trial because Donald Trump was having sex with a porn star, there are a whole load of voters out there, particularly male voters who are not going to find that such a turn off. Remember, this is the Wild West in the United States. People like renegades in this country. And we have an orange -haired renegade on the loose running for president again.

21:24I've said it before though, there are going to be some female voters who might not find this as attractive as some of the guys out there, too. True story. On that, we're going to take a break and we're going to talk about the polls and what is happening in the Biden campaign after the break.

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22:50Welcome back to the rest is politics, US. I'm Katty Kay. And I'm Anthony Scaramucci. In this half, Anthony, it occurs to me, we have spoken an awful lot about Trump. We just did it again. And we had a long program about RFK, junior, the one candidate in this race we have not spent a lot of time on paradoxically is Joe Biden. And I think it's worth us looking because a couple of things have happened this week that give us a nice way to look at the Biden campaign and the state of the Biden campaign. The first, of course, is they've agreed to do debates, which there was some question about in the Biden camp.

23:20I have spoken to people in the Biden team who were a little hesitant about him doing debates a few weeks ago, but this week they announced they're going to do two debates, just the two of them, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, one in June and one in September. And then the other thing is that there's been a bunch of polls out this week, a one in particular, which has made the Biden campaign. I was texting with somebody on the campaign last night, very unhappy. And that's the New York Times, CNPOL, which points to big problems for Joe Biden. They say that's not a reliable poll, but we're going to get into some of the polling.

23:54And why more than just the polling, why Joe Biden seems to be in the position he's in, given that he's the sitting president. So let's start with the debates, which are going to be an unusual form of American debates, because usually in American presidential debates, they're run by this thing called the Election Debate Commission. Both guys have said, too bad, we don't want the Election Debate Commission. The Election Debate Commission only runs poll debates in the autumn. We think that Americans need to start focusing on this election right now. That's particularly the Biden campaign strategy.