252. SUNAK CALLS GENERAL ELECTION

0:00Thanks for listening to the Restus Politics, sign up to the Restus Politics Plus to enjoy ad -free listening and receive a weekly newsletter. Join our members' chat room again early access to live show tickets. Just go to therestuspolitics .com. That's therestuspolitics .com. Right now, with the Home Depot, you'll find storage solutions made to fit your needs. Grab an HDX tough tilt to protect your tools. Or keep your sports equipment contained with reinforced snap -fit lids. Or stack up and make better use of your space with bins and totes built to last. Whatever your story, we've got the gear to keep it organized and protected at the Home Depot.

0:40How doers get more done?

0:58Start a business can seem like a daunting task. Unless you have a partner like Shopify, they have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website, to marketing, to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Hines and allbirds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your site, turn your big business idea into... Sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify .com slash special offer.

1:34Welcome to therestuspolitics emergency podcast on the day that Rishi Srinak finally gets round to corner a general election with me, Alistair Campbell and me, Rory Stewart and Alistair, we just spent most of the morning together. We were up in leads together last night. We were in leads and we were getting into the details of local council arrangements and devolution and all the gritty business of devolved budgets and suddenly we got an election. Well, suddenly on the train, Rory, if you remember, sitting next to a dentist called Jessica and her dad, who was going to see a plague and see four to towers, I was able to pass onto them, these rumours swirling around.

2:14And you said, I will bet anybody £50, he's not calling an election today. Why are you so confident? Because it is complete insanity. I mean, it makes zero sense. I mean, there's just no way that this makes any sense to... I mean, it doesn't make any sense. I mean, if he thinks that this is about the economy, then actually, if he gave it a few more months, there's a chance, decent chance, actually, that the economy might strengthen a little bit. Inflation might come down a bit, interest rates might come down a bit. He might, although it's probably unlikely, be able to get some of his stuff down on his Rwandan flights.

2:53And who knows when you're 20 points behind in the polls, there's absolutely no point going to an election straight away. You may as well wait and see just in case by some miracle, here's Starnwell -Retch, Reeves slept over on a banana skin, however unlikely it was, but he's going to a certain defeat now in six weeks, whereas he could at least have gambled, held off a bit to see whether some miracle might have improved things like Ian had another few more months in office. Yeah. I mean, I look, the last time there was these sort of rumors going around, he was about to call an election, which at the time I said I thought was a gigantic betting scam by somebody.

3:27But I think we said at that time, the only thing he has left really is the element of surprise. So he has taken people by surprise. Now... Well, get the surprise, you said it to him. I'll tell you. I'll say it to me, because I mean, surprise, I'm 20 points behind no holds, and I'm going to lose the election. Surprise! No way over there. The surprise is that you have a moment at the start where you can kind of frame things. The problem is, I don't think he framed it very well just now. But if you were to, let's try and go... So I can remember various points at which we were deciding, in opposition, you're panicking the whole time about when they're going to call the election.

4:05And John Major, in 1977, he did go long and he waited and he sort of hoped something turned up, and then he went for a very long campaign, which is exactly what Rishi Suneke is doing. And then I think they're both... The other thing that Suneke is doing today, he really was putting up... Putting up in lights, the sense of, you know, oh, I've got this amazing record and didn't know well, do well during furlough, and look at the economy is picking up him and trying to con people into thinking that because inflation is falling, it means prices are falling, and the cost of living is falling when it's not.

4:35And then the other thing he did was really trying to sort of, you know, essentially say, this is now a choice between meat and Kierstammer, for Priet Prime Minister, and going at Kierstammer on character, and I'm just not sure that's going to work. So I think the framing is not good. I could have framed it better for him today, but I'm not going to say how. Well, come back to framing, actually, because I think that is a good point. I mean, if you were right, that this is about surprised, then you better have something pretty remarkable up your sleeve, rather than just standing up and saying everything that you've been saying for the last few weeks, and I'm very surprising what he said.

5:10I think the other thing is that if we look at those polls, the great rest as politics polls that we've been doing excuse for every month, there was some quite interesting, very small changes, which seemed to be softening a little bit in his direction, which again, not guaranteed at all, but if he'd given it another few weeks and months, there's just about a chance, not that he'd win the election. I never believed he could win the election, but he could have slightly minimized the damage. I've obviously, as you can imagine, have had a number of texts and WhatsApp's from serving MPs. So I think I've heard from six of them, some of them being cabinet ministers, some back benches, some of the...

5:49Will they all stay? I think very few of them will stay. Very few of them will stay. Including some... They're all going to throw the towel in. Yeah, including some who haven't yet announced their leaving will leave. And honestly, the response from most of them is total bewilderment. I'm literally there writing back going, I'll give you a sort of sample. You know, one of them's like, I have literally no idea why he's doing it. Any more than I have any idea why he's standing in the rain with his musical background. Another one wrote saying... Can I just say for our listeners, in case they didn't hear, the musical background was a well -known anthem from 1997 called The Things Can Only Get Better.

6:30So there's Rishi Sudak standing in a very wet day and at the bottom of Downey Street, you can hear the anthem that led to... There was part of Labour's victory in 1997. Now, I've got to say as well, I got a message from somebody who used to be part of our team, Kate Garvey. And she just said, bloody hell, at least we'd have sorted the weather. Oh. I think that was the other thing. So yeah, so your friends in the Tory party are basically... I'm trying to be level - I'm talking to them, I'm talking to literally veteran MPs, you know, people who've been in... No point to this. 15, 20 years and they're just writing that when I say, if you've got any idea what he's doing this and almost all of them are writing back saying, no, to be honest, I've got no idea.

7:14And then they try to speculate and I can give you the range, the full range of hypotheses, right? So there's the... This is the best moment to go. So this is the very generous view, right? So this is a good moment. Inflations down, interest rates, cuts, and there are going to be a rewound on flights in June. So that's a story. This is a beautiful moment to go. That's really not very convincing. That's somebody just putting that out, trying his best. The next theory was things are definitely not going to improve. So the economy's not going to get any better, and there's not going to be any more money for cuts.

7:45So you might as well go now. Yeah. The third theory was things are going to get much worse. Between now and say November. Yeah, so we might as well go now. So that theory is rewound is going to go bottoms up. There's going to be more defections. Forage is going to make a comeback. The party conference is going to be an absolute catastrophe. Then there was a number of people who are just like, honestly, I suspect he just hates being PM and can't bear the idea of a winter campaign and just can't face the idea of waiting to party conference. He could be in California and just can't do it anymore.

8:22You think these are people who are going to announce. Presumably, very, very soon we'll have to tell their local parties if they're standing or not. Absolutely. And then you're going to have a whole new patch of energy. One of them is confirmed to me that he's standing again. They're not OK, but a very remarkable number are leaving. Yeah. And they are all totally thrown off balance and astonished. There is only one more theory that I want to share. And then I'll shut up about it, which is that I did have somebody who's very much in the inner circle who said that there have been a lot of MPs over the last few months going into CM saying, please can we have an election?

9:03We're so exhausted. We're so fed up. We don't want to be in parliament anymore. We want to leave. We want to go and do something else with our lives. So it may be that there's been a bit of pressure from MPs just saying, this is just rubbish. We can't take anymore. Let's just get out and that's all that's OK. You see, the other thing I think is odd, if that's the sort of mood, which is totally defeatist, you can't go into a campaign with the defeatist attitudes. You might as well go. He has to, he's going now whether he likes it not into what will be six of the most exhausting weeks of his life.

9:34Campaigns, especially for the leaders, are truly horrible experiences. They are exhausting. You are under massive scrutiny. The pressures are relentless and at times unbearable. And I just think if that's the mood, why have such a long campaign? Why go long? And I just wonder whether there's anything that's thought through in this or whether, you know, and I know you laughed when I said it, but in a way it is the only thing he had left. Was this, I'm going to take them all by surprise. No. Can I just on that one? Because I think that's a really interesting one. I do think that there's a risk in politics that leaders get into a mindset where they think that they are going to do something surprising to invertecamas show strength.

10:19It's what I call that the homes are your self -move. They do these completely bewildering things because they think it somehow makes them look strong. Because at least they're taking an initiative. I mean, I suppose what they feel is I'm trapped. I'm trapped. I'm trapped. At least in this case, I'm taking a choice. I'm not being having something for some. But usually it's a bad sign. It was a bad sign with homes are your self and I'm afraid it's a bad sign. That was where she's in act. We should let people know this event that we were in leads today was very interesting because it was full of people from housing, the housing sector, from property, from local government, lots of economists and so forth.

10:54And we did our usual thing of asking them who they thought would be prime minister after the next election. Little did we know at the time that it would be in no time at all. And it was 100%, 100 % said Kier's Thama will be the prime minister. But then they had Angela Rainer there yesterday and we asked them whether they felt that they could be part of the delivery of these new towns that she was talking about in this massive house building program before the end of the next parliament. And they weren't really buying it in a way. And I think that what the what the Tories will try to do now, and of course they've got the help of newspapers that's my phone.

11:30They've got the help of newspapers that are they're going to be absolutely vile about labor from tomorrow. Even more vile than usual, they're going to try to make this a scary choice about labor. And I just think that's a very difficult thing to do because what that audience was saying indicating to us today, yeah, well, we might not be totally clear about what labor going to do, but we don't mind it. There's got to be a change. And I'll tell you something I thought was very interesting. When we're on the train, you were busy tapping away at your laptop and I was watching PMQs and then related to you were.

12:03I thought it was, let's be honest, Soonak obviously knew when he woke up today that he was going to do this today. I can't believe he just sort of thought it up. And that's when the room started. And remember there was a question by Stephen Flynn. Where Stephen Flynn said, are you going to call an election to are you fit? That you're fit. I. And but so he knew that was happening. And his response that she was surprisingly disingenuous given well, we know what he was about to do. Well, he said, well, he said, well, you know, there's going to, there's going some time in the second half of the end of this year that will be an election I can feel to you.

12:36Yeah. But what I thought was very smart about bearing in mind that they're going to try to make this about labor being scary. I thought was very smart. Soonak at the first possible opportunity trotted out his economic, got a planted question from a guy we talked about in the podcast, the Elliott Corbin, about the economy, about the inflation figures. And then he was setting himself up for a sort of a big fight with Keir Starma on the economy, which labor want to fight on. OK. But not today. And so what Keir Starma did, which I thought was very, very effective and smart, he started with a very long and full sum tribute to Craig McKinley, the Tory MP who's had this horrible illness and was back in the commons today.

13:24He then he then mentioned people in the gallery who had been involved in the Manchester arena bombing. And then he went on to six questions about the infected blood scandal, which were very, very pointed and sharp and so forth. But what he was, I think, deliberately doing was not allowing in that context. Soonak, I think by then Keir Starma, the Labour Party did get a tip off that that soonak was going to be having what they called the lectern moment at five o 'clock. So I think that's why the room is all started. But Keir was not going to give him that moment there. Be interested to see. I don't know whether it will happen while we're doing this.

14:02I think there's also a real problem, which is the best case that the conservatives can make going into the election to minimise damage is to say actually the economy is beginning to turn around. And some of the people will know inflation down 2 .5 % is coming down. Interest rates will probably come down and growth is beginning to take off a bit. But if that's your message and you're saying stick with nurse for fear of something worse, then the logic is to run the election in November. The logic is to give it six months to prove that the economy is beginning to turn around and going in a slightly more positive direction.

14:48I mean, even if you're all you're trying to do is save the conservative party for posterity because you're you want to be able to say that to narrative to be we handed over to Labour an economy that was beginning to recover. And you might have been able to achieve that if you delay till November. You can't go confidently into an election now saying actually we've turned the corner, the economy is recovering, stick with the nurse for something worse. If you've only got one week's worth of data on which to make that kind of case, I mean, it makes it look as though you have no confidence at all that things are going to improve over the next five to six months, doesn't it?

15:23Yeah, what about, I don't suppose Jeremy Hunts amongst one of the six that's texting you is equals. His position is going to be very, very interesting. Going to know he's not, it's not, it's not. Gerald, Gerald Davidson says he loves it that Rory's on his phone, getting messages from his stounded Tory MPs. No, I've just had a, I'm going to give an award here to the most opportunist, the fastest, most opportunist request coming in. It's from Talkal Critan who is a Labour candidate in the Western Isles and he's basically saying, game on, please come to the islands in the next couple of months. So I think that's brilliant, I think.

16:02But that's the other thing, for candidates today, this is like, I think it's important to emphasise to people, general elections are, they obviously huge moments in the life of the nation. Even people who don't follow politics that closely know that we know when general elections were in the past, we know the ones that were important. But this, this is, this is now, you've got all over the country tonight, you've got candidates, you've got people who still want to be candidates, you've got organisers, you've got volunteers, you've got people cancelling holidays. And this is the other thing which I think will piss off a lot of your former friends.

16:41The indications they've all, but my current friends, my former colleagues, the friends, your former friends, your current friends, yeah. But they've all been, the indications they've been given is that, you know, it's not going to be during the Euros, it's not going to be during the summer, off you go on holiday if you want to have a holiday. And now they're all going to have to be campaigning. There's also the issue of school times, you know, Scottish schools, Northern Ireland schools have different summer holiday dates to English schools. I think, can I put my first of many pitches into remind people that this will be the first general election of which voter ideal we're required.

17:18And I think that is really, really important that people remember that. I think this will be the first general election in which I suspect there will be a lot more tactical voting than usual, because I think despite what Sue and I was trying to do today, I think the driving narrative of this election is time for change. I think that's the big, I think people, you know, we've felt that today, we've felt that. No, we've done it trying to, and actually the reason, of course, he's going to go a bit long is he's hoping that by going a bit longer, he's going to be able to expose Kierstamer and Rachel Reeves to a bit more public scrutiny.

17:53So now you'll disagree with this because obviously you're very sympathetic towards Kierstamer and Rachel Reeves, but the Tory position is that the Labour Front bench isn't that exciting, isn't that impressive, and that actually when the public look at them closely, they're not going to be that impressed, and that the public's basic view is they're fed up with the Tories. They want to try someone else, but the Tories are gambling that with a long campaign, they can make people look carefully at some of the key Labour figures and be like, oh, that's not, I'm not really convinced these people are going to be able to run that greater government.

18:30So that's what I think they're hoping. Yeah, they are, but I think that, you know, so why don't we just let the listeners in on it? We did an interview this week with Rachel Reeves for Resta's politics leading, which we'll put out in the next period. And the point is, I just think that you and I both complain sometimes that Labour may be a bit too cautious, but if the Tories are banking everything on Kierstamer and Rachel Reeves dropping the ball, I just don't think they're going to be satisfied in that way. There will be, by the way, this is the other thing people should remember about elections.

19:04There will be totally unexpected moments that nobody sees coming. There will be issues that suddenly flare up, that you didn't expect to flare up. But I suspect, because of the mood around the parties, that they're just as likely to be involving the Tories parties, any of the other parties. Yeah, I mean, just remind people, remind listeners how that can happen during elections. And you maybe can just think about a couple of examples of ways in which your elections suddenly horrible things happened in the run -up to the elections in those five, six weeks, which you really thought, oh my goodness, this is going to derail.

19:37John Prescott punched the world and ground round him over the bigger. There was Theresa May, where basically having been 20 points ahead on the polls, looking like she was going to crush Jeremy Corbyn. Her manifesto went horribly wrong. And her announcement on that out social care was branded as a death tax. And she found her had support going to free -fall three weeks before the vote. And that's why that discipline that Rachel, I think, somewhat to your irritation at times, with that sort of discipline that Rachel Breeze was showing in our interview, I think will be so important. But there will be moments, no doubt.

20:15There will be moments where I can remember, going way back to when the Tories produced, this is my Margaret Thatcher's Prime Minister, this Labor did a shadow budget, and the Tories just managed to take it apart over through the campaign. You've got to have, ultimately, even though campaigns have changed a lot, I doubt that we're ever going to see the return of daily press conferences, I don't know how many TV debates there might be. I think a lot of it will be fought on social media, and will be fought in sort of, you know, them trying to control the message the whole time. But I think that the, you know, I think from Sooner Ex perspective, he's got to go into this thinking he can win.

20:59I think he would be, I can't think of a worse form of human existence, of fighting a general election, as the incumbent went in your heart, you know, you're going to lose. He's got to tell himself he can win. The people around him have got to believe that. And, you know, so I think from Labor's perspective, there's got to be, they've got to, sorry, my phone keeps going, from Labor's perspective, they should also be fighting it like they can, like they can lose it. Now, this is Adam, Adam Barton question just coming. Will Labor now be able to give more details on their plans? So far, it's been very low on detail and focusing on not being Torries, presumably to protect Manifesto.

21:35So Adam Barton's hope is that one of the reasons they've been holding things back is for fear that the Torries will nick their ideas. Do you think we're likely now to see a kind of bold and exciting Manifesto or not? I think there will be, I think there will be more detail, but I think the contours are pretty clear now. I think a combination of the missions and the the six pledges that Keir Starmer set out last week now. I think that will form the basis of it. I hope there will be more. I hope there will be both more in terms of detail and in terms of what I call, you know, big, big picture. So, for example, I mentioned earlier, we were talking about the new towns that Andger Rainer taught by yesterday.

22:14They are going to have at some point to explain how that works, how it ties in with the infrastructure that lots of people at that comps today were talking about. If you have a new town, how many new schools, how many, how many GP surgeries, how does that all get fitted with the transport system? That sort of detail. I think some of the, and I actually think what, what Labour should take confidence in is they have got the building blocks. If you take the GB energy thing, actually to have a day or several days during the campaign where they put out detail that people end up having a debate about, that is a good thing to do because what Labour has to do now is give people the reasons that they say it's not just that I want the toys out.

22:54I'm voting for Labour because ABCDEF as far as you like. And that's what Labour has to use the campaign for. Just remind people what the six first steps are. They are stick to tough spending rules in order to deliver economic stability.

23:10So, that's the sort of important, but it's sort of slightly negative. We're not going to do anything that they're doing on spending yet. Set up great British energy, which is some sort of publicly owned, clean power energy company, for a bit. So, I think that will confuse people a bit. Cut NHS waiting lists by providing 40 ,000 more appointments each week. Again, I don't know what general public makes that. I don't know how many appointments we think we have each week, whether 40 ,000 more appointments is a huge number. I think over a million a day. So, it may not make it. Long to have a border security command to stop the gangs arranging small boat crossings.

23:50Neutralising the small boats, yeah. Providing more neighbourhood police officers, but he just says more doesn't give a number to reduce anti -social behaviour and introduce new penalties for offenders. And then, recruiting 6 ,500 teachers. So, I guess the teacher's thing is good, I guess, but it's not that exciting. And of course, a lot of this doesn't apply to Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland. That is, but one of the things we talked about at the conference today was that people have to get used to the fact that in devolution you have these different dynamics going on. So, several of those don't apply to Scotland.