255. Is Labour's lead narrowing?

26:20So the real loss, big call loss is everybody came in with Cameron 2010. So my whole generation are stepping down basically. It's a lot of the leading figures in my generation are going. But we're also going to have a parliament that will lose a lot of bits of the conservative party from older periods. So the last of the kind of satirite drives are going, you know, John Redwood, Bill Cash, these kind of 1980s early brexit years going. We're going to lose a lot of the sort of 2005 right wing Tories. So Chris Grayling, Michael Gove, dramatic, Michael Gove, pretty considerable figure, not just because he was a very energetic minister in education, justice and environment, but also because he was a master user of the Times newspaper.

27:16That's a very, very polite way of saying you basically be there. He used to work for the Times. For most of his career, he still did. It was extraordinary. I mean, absolutely extraordinary. And then in the tribute and paid to him by Tim Shepman. Tim Shepman as well as saying, you know, he's the basically the the the the giant of British politics over the next 20 years, last 20 years, spends a lot of the article saying, and he never leaked to me. He never leaked to me. And then paragraph four, he never leaked to me. People think he leaked. So that's that's going. We're also losing some of the big figures actually on the more center right to the party.

27:50So Greg Clark, who I had a lot of time for, who did really good jobs. Really, I was a serious guy. I think actually was in the SDP briefly, but really led a lot of the government's work on which I still think is is one of the few achievements over the last 13 years, which is really leaning into more of these elected mayors, more of the devolution, police and crime commissioners getting more votes down and look there. And then a Ben Wallace going for it, I'm going. And then if you just look at my intake, they're losing. You're forgetting your hero Theresa May. And Theresa May. Theresa May very much.

28:28Very good point. Theresa May. Yeah. If you look at my intake, you're losing such a javit, Dominic Rob, Matt Hancock, Nuttamsahawi, Quasi Quoting, Alok Sharma, and many many many many others. And so of the people who ran for the leadership against Theresa May, so that was Andrea Ledson, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, all out of the people who ran for leadership against Boris Johnson, which was in the last seven was Matt Hancock, Dominic Rob, Sajid Javid, me, Michael Gove, all gone with the exception Jeremy Hunt, who's is going on. But but it really means for the conservative party. And they're also losing, I think, nine at least from the 2019 intake, similar number from the 2015, 2017 intake.

29:23So it will be a very, very, very different party. Are we going to have any that were there in 97? Yeah, of course. Some of the 97 lot will still be clinging on, but very, very few. I mean, David, David, David, David, David, I think, hasn't announced he's stepping down. Oh, God, he'll be out. He'll be taking out in the box. So until he's definitely, he's there for the long haul. Man, I always thought about Bill Cash. I always thought that Bill Cash would, and I say this as something who is not unfriendly towards Bill Cash, because he, as I've told you before, used to help me out of my radio show back in the day, but I'd fight him admittedly.

29:59I'd say, get to the studio. I've lost a guest. But I always thought Bill Cash would die in the House of Commons, making a speech about the Maastricht Treaty. Yes. I thought that would be his, his, his way to go. Now, really, one thing we're going to do in these, in these coming weeks is, although, as you know, I've never, ever put a bet on in my life. I do have a friend called William who works at Star Sports betting, and he's keeping me up to speed with all the sort of odds. So do you want to know the current odds for who will be the next permanent Conservative Party leader? Temporary or acting doesn't count, right?

30:38Current favourite is Kemi Badenach, which I think is good news for Labour. She's 11 to 4. Sorry, help me understand what does 11 to 4 mean? Does that mean? 11 to 4 means that if you put four pounds on, you will win 11. Oh, I see. Okay. So it's not like when I ran against Boris Johnson when it was the other way around where I think if you put down six pounds, you'd win two. No, no, no. In fact, that would, that would be called three to one on. Right. Okay. Yeah, we're going to have to educate, I've tried to educate you about football and fail. But you're saying to me that obviously with Boris, if you put six and made two, it meant that they thought he was kind of 80 % guaranteed to get it.

31:14Well, if I tell you, for example, that Kierstamer to be the next Prime Minister is something like, I'll check it in a minute, but I think he's 12 to one on, which means if you put on 12 pounds, you'll win one. I see. Okay. Okay. Okay. But so Kemi Badenach is not like that. She's still not like that, but that's quite, that's pretty, that's, that's, you know, she's the favourite. Next up is Penny Morden 13 to 2. So that means you put two pounds on you win 13. Robert Jenry coming, who would ever have thought that Robert Jenry would be coming in at seven to one, pretty, pretty tall eight to one. Your man James cleverly, nine to one, Bravon, one, eleven, Tom Tugan at 16.

31:50Here's an interesting one, David Cameron, twenty to one. Boris Johnson, twenty five to one. That's ridiculous, William. He should be five million to one and Nigel Farage at twenty eight to one. These are all quite the, the, the, sometimes reflect what people think and sometimes they reflect money that may have already been, been put on. Yeah. So what do you think about that bad enough? Well, I don't know. I mean, I, you know, when I was up, I mean, it's difficult to know is that I was number two to Boris for a couple of weeks and the, in the betting odds. And I think I was, you put on a pound, you make six pounds.

32:23Yeah. But I found that everybody having told me that the betting odds were more reliable than anything else. They obviously overestimated my chances of, of, of going through number two. Yeah. But that's probably because you, you, without you even knowing it, you probably had a few rich mates who are well, my mother. Most seat, here's one for you, Roy. This is, no, this, this will, I think, will alarm Labour because it will, it will feed into this narrative that this election is all over by the shouting, which I think is a very, very dangerous mindset. Nobody should get into that. Most seats, my friend William is saying, Labour 50 to one on.

33:02In other words, you put on 50 pounds, you get one back, conservatives 12 to one reform 100 to one greens 500 to one lib Dems 500 to one. Overall majority, Labour 12 to one on, no overall majority eight to one, Tory majority 28. So these are all, and when you get, they also do betting on the number of seats that you can, that they think Labour will win. And they're predicting quite big numbers judging by the odds against them. So that's kind of where the betting is at the moment. And we'll, there's even a market, I'm not going to go into this one because it will just feed the egos of too many broadcasts.

33:42They've got a market on who will be the main BBC presenter. We should say that we will be presenting for Channel 4 news. So so much more to be done. And as we, as we do more of this, we're going to really lean into policy because obviously in the end, what matters is not so much the gossip of up and down, but what an incoming government is or isn't going to do and what choices they really face. So we'll try to do that in future episodes. We'll have a bit more detailed look at the geography of the election, how things break across Britain. But I think probably, as we move into our concluding thing, we were going to do a bit about India.

34:19More of that after the break.

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35:37Welcome back to the final part of the Restisted Politics. Yeah, let's just go, let's just do a little bit more on some of these poll findings. I think there's a couple of interesting things that we haven't covered. The first thing is that a lot of the time, but in election, you're fighting for quotes, the narrative, you're fighting to be on the issues that you that are doing better for you. Now, Kierstarm remains 12 points ahead of Soonak on who would make the best Prime Minister. And that's been a pretty steady lead. So, Labour will not fear this becoming sort of Soonak of Eastarma, which is how it's sort of pitching up.

36:15The second is that despite, as you say, getting closer on inflation, Labour continue to lead on the economy and on the health service. And those are by a mile the two issues that are most dominant in people's minds. And the other thing, very briefly, Royal, you're in grief and I'm in Lock Lomond. So, we're both in Scotland. Somebody sent me, somebody from the David Humans' Institute sent me a fascinating survey about Scottish opinion in this election. And they asked, they gave people a list of about 30 issues, 20, 30 issues, and said, pick three that are the most important to you in this campaign.

36:54And I think what would be quite worrying for the SMP is just how low the constitutional questions of devolution and so forth were an independence. It was something like, I think, it was about 7%. And the fourth one, by the way, which really interesting was trust in politics, was massive up there. Obviously, being in Scotland, I've been reading the Scottish newspapers rather than the English newspapers. And what's been striking to me, looking at the papers, for example, yesterday, is that there's comparatively little about the elections. I mean, the sun, Scottish sun, had nothing on the elections until page eight.

37:32And even then, it was some stories on Anasawar and the way it's deep -pads. But the first seven pages were all entirely devoted to different forms of celebrities and their love life. The Daily Mail, again, had very Scottish Daily Mail, very, very few articles. They had maybe three articles related to the election, couple, anti -SMP, one on National Citizens Service. But otherwise, it was mostly about golf, Grand Prix, and chocolate. Surely, it's really, surely the Celtic Ragers Cup. I went to the Celtic Ragers Cup Final and a very poor game, but fantastic atmosphere. And then the, even the FT, barely managed three stories.

38:10I mean, National Service Employment. But really, basically, it was behaving as though the election wasn't central to the newspapers. Well, first of all, first thing to say, I think they know, six weeks is a long time to keep people's interest. It doesn't sound long, but it is a long time. So they maybe think, let's just, keep it a bit low -key for now. And the second thing is, there is some really remarkable things happening in the world. What's happened in the last couple of days in Raffa, utterly horrific and commanding a lot of space rightly. Russia, Ukraine, you had Stoltenberg yesterday, essentially saying that we may have to think about actually getting weapons there and using them from inside Ukraine, which was like a pretty big development.

38:54So there's lots of stuff going on. But the one thing that we did see from the poll that I think it was, was it 90 % are aware that the election's going on. Now, you might think, how could anybody be unaware? But again, that relates to your point. And the perception is lowest amongst the young. Good move, by the way, I thought I was very pleased. If you think, Rory, about the things that we've been banging on about, I've been banging on for a long time about a really hope -labor low at the voting age. I'm very, very pleased that they've announced they're going to do that if they win. And may I, on that subject, Rory, can I be utterly shameless here and announce that we have brought forward the publication of my two books on politics for young people?

39:38The election, thank you Mr. Suna, the election's in two good opportunities. So the one for teenagers, Alistair Campbell, towards politics, that's coming out on June the 20th ahead of the election. And the one for primary schools, why politics matters, I think there could be no better day for publication than the election day itself July the 4th. Very good. And a little plug then for me too. So here we go. Here we go. So paperback of politics on the edge also now coming out for the election. So anybody interested in getting into some of the depths and the details and the horror of Parliament and the way in which this whole political system works, do you go and buy the paperback edition of the books and slightly different actually from the hardback for the real nerds you want to.

40:24Have you done a new introduction or something? There's been a little bit of change. So I've tightened a few things up. Oh I see. Did you, did you, did you make it slightly less and politics following this? Was my discussion or did you make it more anti politics? It remains pretty, pretty anti politics. I suppose the only, the only other sort of hopeful thing for Rishi Soonak in the poll in our poll with J .R. partners is there's a slight increase for Soonak on who would you most trust to make a Sunday. Well done. He's his culinary scott's brief. Yeah. Hey, and I should consider these as a vegetarian.

40:58I thought it was a very, very interesting poll move. Just on book plugs, Damian Collins, who's an MP, has produced a book called Rivals in the Storm, which is about Lloyd George. And if you want optimism and hope in politics, it is incredible. Basically, it is a story about how Lloyd George almost single handedly transformed Britain's position in the First World War, completely sorted out the munitions situation. I mean, just again and again and again, using public speeches, bashing his way through cabinet, really bringing change. I mean, and when we think about how little we feel the conservatives have achieved in 13 years, how much that liberal government achieves in a much shorter period leading into the First World War.

41:42And in particular, this figure, this guy, Lord George, who wasn't even Prime Minister, the way in which so I think along with reading your books, I would encourage people to have a look at Rivals and saw him. If you want an example of how politicians were able can make the most incredible difference through charisma, courage, share intelligence, Damian Collins's book, Rivals in the Storm. That's great. I wish I had actually I hadn't thought of Lloyd George because I've got a chapter in the teenagers book about people who have made individuals who have made a difference in extraordinary circumstances.

42:15No, that sounds a very good one. So does that is Damian Collins standing? He is standing again. Yes. So he is standing in whether he can hold a seat. I don't know, but he's definitely standing again. Yeah. Right. If I were his constituents, I'd be like, ah, the bloody hell did you have time to write a book about Lloyd George? Well, it's because the foolish government never made him a cabinet minister. So he's always, he's always had to do that. That's true. That's true. He is good. Yeah. I have just read and I'm going to recommend a proof of Kate Weinberg's book. There's nothing wrong with her, which is a novel.

42:42And it's, you know, you know, my sort of interest in mental health and mental illness, but it will, a lot of people who went through COVID and found it horrific will relate to it. So that's what I've learned. And Kate, Kate herself had a pretty tough experience with COVID, didn't she? So this is partly how coming in. Actually, she's done a lot of good work on also helping other people who've come through Long COVID. She's beginning to work out protocols and therapies. One of her points, I think, is that people's experience has been very, very, very different. There are some common themes, but my goodness, the horrors and I mean, I've got a very close friend in Cumbria who has had moments over the last two and a half years where he sort of basically thinks it's hardly worth being alive because he feels he's just, he's just, he's just, he's lost his physical strength.

43:33He just feels depressed all the time. He says, you know, in a week, you'll have five or ten minutes, which are okay. But I mean, and he very much traces this back to COVID. Hmm. So, so, anyways, that's when I'm reading. And so, shall we just talk, should we just talk about India and what's happening there? In fact, there's some very, very big elections on the moment. So, South Africa, India, we've got Mexico still going on, but let's just focus for a minute on India. What have you been making and what's happening? Well, I think one really big bit of news is Arvind Kirtwal, who is the chief minister of Delhi.

44:06And we, we did talk about, I know we've got some very, very, asitious listens who tell me off for repeating my stories on this trust. So, they may remember that nearly two years ago, we did something on Arvind. Rory, they only do, they only, Rory, let me jump in here, they only do that because you said, in our interview with Rachel Reeves, that she told a story that you'd heard four times before, had you felt she should have had a new story to tell us and somebody pointed out you've told the story about this. So, that same attentive listener, well, that was to remember about two years ago, we covered Arvind Kirtwal and his arm, Ardmi Pate.

44:43So, he is a man who, rather kind of remarkable, quite a sort of geeky man from the revenue service, who led a case back in 2005 on anti corruption, managed to get elected into Delhi, has on and off been there for almost ten years, was arrested five days after the election was called because he is the absolute linchpin of the opposition to Narendra Modi. There's a coalition called the India coalition that brings together the Arvind Kirtwal party in Congress and was just released seven weeks after his arrest and he was he was arrested being accused of siphoning money from a liquor license, which is part of a general pattern of what Modi's been doing.

45:28We can talk a lot about many of the ways in which Narendra Modi's India is becoming more authoritarian and it's a lot of democratic backside. But one of these things is the use of something called the enforcement director of which is part of the BJP finance ministry and which has really ramped up. They've gone from 84 searches to 7 ,264 searches during the year during the BJP period. 95 % of the senior politicians they investigate are from the opposition and when 25 of those politicians from the opposition who were being investigated for corruption defected to the BJP, the cases were dropped. So it is a very, very, very politically motivated thing.

46:12He will have to go back to jail again next Sunday, but he went straight to Hariana, punch up and Delhi. This is a staggered election. It's been going on since April and you can see that Modi seems to be getting a bit wound up and a bit more bad tempered. Now polling is banned in India during the elections, exit polling, pinion polls, focus groups all banned. So we're guessing slightly but one of the signs of this is Modi made a very, very aggressive anti -Muslim speech referring to the Muslims who are 200 million people in India as being infiltrators, referring to them as having too many children.

46:57Over to you, what have you observed about India? Well, the first thing, because there's such a big country, the election takes place in these seven phases you say. So it started several weeks ago and it's been going region by region. So what you don't get is the result necessarily, but you can see the turnout. And very interesting that the turnout is quite considerably in some places down with Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat and Rajasthan are all down it seems. And those are, I think, Modi strongholds or Lisa and Gujarat is where was originally his state, yeah. Well, absolutely. Gujarat was his state, yeah.

47:36So the turnout, for example, in Uttar Pradesh is 57 .95 down from 60 .64. Gujarat had a turnout in 2019 of 64 % plus and it's now just over 60. Rajasthan's turnout similarly a lot lower. So that, listen, that could mean that doesn't necessarily mean that it's less of a shoe in for Modi. I was at an event recently where somebody from the Indian High Commission was there and I was saying, oh, well, you know, at least we know that we don't have to worry too much about what's going to happen in your election. It's all sort of done deal. It's all more think it would be closer than you think. Maybe you're just saying that, I don't know.

48:18But this thing about the, um, the anti -Muslim rhetoric and as you say, we're not talking here about, when we talk about a minority in the UK, you know, you might be talking about relatively small numbers of people as you said, we're talking about 200 million. So he said that he basically the line that they're running against the Congress party, well, one of the lines they're on is that they're the elitist and we're for the people. But the other is that they basically say that they want to put all the wealth among the Muslims. And this is where he said, quote, those who have more children, the infiltrators, now he went on to when he was challenged about it.

48:52He said, you know, it's an insult to, you know, he, why, why should you assume that he was talking about Muslims, but it's a classic sort of, you know, it's a classic populist sort of tactic. You say something, you get challenged and you pretend you're saying something slightly different. And the other thing is the line that they're pushing is that the Muslims get all the, if Congress come in, Muslims are going to get all the advantage. And the, if you look at the data, Muslims make up 14 % of the national population, but 4 .6 % of students enrolled in higher education, which is a, you know, an indicator of how much they share in the countries of prosperity.

49:28So they're, they're a third, in 2 ,3 less likely to go into higher education than the general population. I mean, so increasingly marginalized. And you know, I was talking to some very, very bright Indian Muslims recently who are not trying to join the Indian administrative service, which is a great kind of elite civil service because they feel such discrimination now that they're not likely to get jobs. And the big signs of the anti -Muslim moves, of course, have included a citizenship law, which basically makes it very easy to get citizenship in India, if you're not a Muslim, the changes to the status, the autonomous status of Kashmir.

50:09And of course, the, what we covered, which was the, in Iodia, his support for the building of this Ram Temple on the site of the old Muslim mosque that was torn down by a mob in the early 90s. And then I think also just not calling out speaking against some incredibly unpleasant radical statements made by some of the religious right. A couple years ago, we had monks calling for two million Muslims to be killed. There are groups that celebrate the assassination of Gandhi because he's considered to be two premises and two pluralists not standing up for him, does enough. And again, the BJP, Modi's been quite cute about, as you say, avoiding sometimes himself explicitly saying stuff.

50:51But he certainly empowers and allows many people around him to say outrageous stuff. Yeah. In the context of our election, the UK election, if there are people who listen to the podcast and who are receiving online advertising, what's that messaging and so forth that they think is of interest and might be of interest to us, would really like it if you can send it to us at restispolities .gmail .com. Particularly at the moment, if I'm going through my social media, I'm endlessly seeing Labour campaigners saying out on the doorstep, getting a great reception, I've seen a little bit of the government and the Tories, but it's obvious that whatever changes are going on, there's no doubt at all that we're stuff that's coming to us on social media is being filtered ever more heavily.

51:40And what's so I'd like to see what sort of stuff is going out under the radar? Exactly. Just quickly before India. So we know that the conservative has spent £800 ,000, which is a lot of money, nearly £1 ,000 ,000 on social media since beginning of the year. It's obviously not being directed to you, Aster, because I think they may have concluded you're not likely to vote conservative. But if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, if there are less than, be really interesting to see the stuff.

52:05Yeah. Yeah. All of it. Absolutely. Well, just to give you an example, somebody sent me one yesterday, which was a picture of Rishi Soonak looking rather smart and handsome in a Chris White shirt and and it said and it said it was something like, you know, Rishi has cut immigration by and it was a huge figure completely. I think it's a 35 % of it. And then alongside was a picture of Kierstama wearing a really badly fitting shirt and looking a bit overweight and a bit podgy. And it just said, you know, Stama doesn't have a plan. And it was like, now you're fair enough, it's political rhetoric to say he doesn't have a plan.

52:41But I think that there will be so much factual disinformation going on. So, as you say, all parties, if people are listening who are receiving this stuff, we would love to see it. And just in terms of India and South Africa is the same, by the way, because the at least in Europe and America, you and I complain a lot that we don't really know how the social media companies were, but at least the governments and the authorities have got some sort of handle on it in India, in South Africa. But it's kind of free for all. The social media companies are not really having to feed in too much about the data that they're getting and how it's being used.

53:17And there was a very interesting piece on the BBC website read the other day about the role of WhatsApp in the Indian election. And it was, it was an interview one guy who said he was on 450 WhatsApp groups around about 200 to 300 members each. And he's then got 5 ,000 contacts of his own. So he was reaching between 10 and 15 ,000 people every day. Now, when you think about how many volunteers a party like the BJP has got, then that I suspect is where an awful lot of the, shall we say, the the less pleasant kind of advertising may be going on. Yeah. And I mean, you directs us towards a really good article.

53:57Also, is it in the conversation? The conversation about South Africa? Yeah. But that wouldn't be anything other interesting. And one of the things that the BBC has written about is the fact that a huge number of Indians have smartphones, credible, very, very high proportion of population, maybe as many as six, 700 million smartphones are there. And it's very easy to access information from the apps. So you can access the data that comes from people booking their taxis, booking their food. You can find out pretty quickly their ethnicity, their age. You can look at their location and able. The Indian government that also collects a lot of data through digital India also sells the data on citizens to commercial companies.

54:40So very, very easy to know an incredible amount for microtugating. And this is something that obviously I did as a conservative MP and I did when I was running to be Maryland. And the ideal is that you get right down to the granular detail of, you know, Alistair really loves this policy around private schools. So we're going to hammer him with reminding him the VAT on private schools. You know, Rory loves National Citizen Service. So we'll hit him with National Citizen Service. And then, and then somebody else, let's say there, I don't know, we pick up that there 35 years old and have two kids age 9 and 11 and live in Donkester.

55:24Obvious target for something around education. Did I have somebody with an elderly mother who hit them on health? So this is what everybody's trying to do. Obama started it with Jim Messina in his campaign in 2012. But a bit of it in 2008. But when you get to India, South Africa, you're getting into a world where it's almost impossible to monitor. The European EU Digital Services Act allows free access to the algorithms and the APIs of these companies, which is not the case. So that you can't, I mean, one of the problems for researchers is that they can get anecdotal glimpses, but they never get the total picture because Facebook, Twitter, TikTok won't share with them the information to actually know where the fake accounts are, who's triggering and feeding stuff, who's retweeting, where the dodgy messages are coming from, etc.

56:18Now, on the final point of the Indian election, Modi went a bit full Trump at the weekend. He said this, I'm convinced that Parmatma, God, sent me for a purpose. Once the purpose is achieved, my work will be done. That is why I've completely dedicated myself to God. And early this month, he said this in his constituency, when my mother was alive, I used to believe that I was born biologically. After she passed away, upon reflecting on all my experiences, I was convinced that God had sent me. Now, I think even Trump might stop at that one. That's going some. Going beyond the idea. It's actually going beyond even Christians who at least give the Virgin Mary a role in the birth, going beyond the biology of the mother is going one step beyond.

57:10So there we are. One final piece of rebuttal, which I have to do, I said on the podcast last week, we were talking about which of the Tories might be the sort of Portillo moment, and I think we were talking about resmog. Portillo, of course, was the famous loss in 1997 that people led to this thing, you know, were you up for the Tilo. And I said that I thought the Lib Dems might beat resmog, and it turns out actually, Labour and Dan Norris are better placed there. So slap on my wrist. Did you buy any chance, Gator, an emergency call from Labour Central Office saying, what are you doing? I'm not encouraging tactical voting against Labour.

57:53I might say a little call that showed me some numbers. I continue to encourage tactical voting. I continue to encourage tactical voting. And the reason why I have not rejoined the Labour Party is because I can keep saying that without risk of expulsion. But it turns out that the tactical vote I was urging there might have been the wrong one. There will be other places where it is sensible to vote Liberal Democrat. Excellent. Okay. Thank you, Anastya. Look forward to talking soon. Bye -bye. All right, Rhee. Take care. Bye -bye.