260. The return of Nigel Farage: does it matter?

25:19Which then had far more viewing figures and far more likes than they would have got if they'd just put it out okay. So I think this is a really important when we move on to the Lib Dems and Ed Davy who's going around basically behaving like a clown, but I do think the idea of how you leverage the comic entertaining moment to then deliver the serious message is really good because the Kirsta was serious stuff, which you can see on TikTok, which I think has now got a lot of views is really quite good. It's a very short video saying he's going to build one and a half million more homes and then there's a picture of him looking quite sort of serious and black and white, but with a nice smile on his face.

26:01And so that is good. I mean, if you can land that stuff, you're really getting it. And of course, the Conservatives are really struggling to land. And one of the problems is that Labor's lead in the young people's vote in 18 to 34 is just unbelievable. Well, as long as they register, as long as they're, I mean, there's a massive problem with lack of registration. So on the surface, though, 1834 years, I'm nearly 60 % going for Labor and something like 15 % going for the Conservatives. So that basically means that very few young people are going to share any conservative messaging because it's just embarrassing.

26:32Nobody wants to share conservative messaging. But you're right. Are they registered? And the turnout figures, the turnout figures for that group suggested only about 38 % of them are likely to vote. Well, that's a problem. And of course, a lot of the TikTok stuff is this is not stuff generated by the parties. It was supposed to be generated by people is very, very cynical, very, very takes the piss out, the politicians, takes the piss out, the campaign doesn't really give much reason to be positive about anything. But just I've just looked at the figures. So the silver black singing surprise surprise.

27:02So the idea is you're 18, the silver black turns up your party, and Ruchisou likes there to say, hey, national service. First of all, with the surprise of July the fourth election now is national service. So what they tell me is that that got four million organic views, which is a lot. Quite a lot. 700 ,000 likes, 140 ,000 shares on WhatsApp. Okay, that's friend to friend as it were. And the WhatsApp thing's almost more important because friend to friend is more trusted. Yeah, much more trusted. Yeah. But then linked to that. So then on the back of that, a video of Labour's six steps, the six steps set up by Labour's, the key of Star Wars, the priorities, went on to achieve 3 .2 million organic views and 200 ,000 likes.

27:47So they would definitely please with that. I'll tell you another thing that, sorry to ban, but I'm determined to bang on about this every single week, not a single mention yet in either of their social media stuff of the B word. Of Brexit. So if you think of 2019, all of the Tory social media was get Brexit done. Yeah. Everything. Yeah. And it's now they've done it. They've done it. So you think they'd be saying, look at us, we did what we say we do, not a single mention. That's fascinating, isn't it? Because you're exactly right. Given that that was what Boris Johnson won on in 2019, given that's what they were made of, you would expect the next election to be our big achievement as we delivered Brexit for you.

28:25And they're not talking about it at all. And you know, I've been reading the mail on Sunday and the mail and very striking that their messaging is not about that at all. If you read, mail on Sunday yesterday, Liz trusts, our disaster is 49 day, letters prime minister now positioning herself the next leader of the Conservative Party by going to the mail on Sunday saying it's all about tax cuts. And then today, and don't see art or resmog, failed Conservative candidate. Just the roster of in the mail saying the Conservatives can win this if they go on small state and tax cuts. But none of them are talking about Brexit.

29:02Interesting. Well, also, Kierstarm and John Helio, the Charlotte Defence guy today are on defence. The Conservatives, the main event for the day is Kemi Badenock, who lets remember is the Secretary of State for Trade and Business. That is her main job. She's also the Equality Minister. So the news today, leading with Kemi Badenock, talking about, and I didn't even understand what she was saying, which she wants to make a change to the Equality's Act, which she then said isn't really a change, it's just clarifying. But what it allows her to do, as Kemi Badenock, is get onto one of the issues, i .e.

29:37trans rights, that she thinks plays well in the leadership election to follow. And also positioning herself in Scotland, because she's saying that this will no longer be a devolved issue. So people at Jekyll Rowling, or Joanna Cherry, who are closer to the Nationalist Movement, but were completely horrified by the S &P's transgender policies, the hope is that that may shore up a bit of the Conservatives' Scotland. Now, Rory, just come on, you've got a bit of a beef about the lovely Ed David, who's been giving the nation so much to smile about. Well, it's been astonishing, hasn't it? So, you're hoping in newspaper last week, and you see pictures of him pratt -falling off a paddleboard in Cumbery.

30:21Do you think he was doing it deliberately? Well, every time he goes off, he waves his hands in the air, he pops up and down, he puts on a goofy smile. But I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, until I discovered reading down that he'd fallen off the thing four times for the cameras. Then I open my newspaper, I think the next day, and he's going down a water slide, going, yay! And the next time he's going down a hill on a bicycle. And in every case, the basic joke seems to be he's like a kind of slightly incompetent dad falling off. So he's basically trying to replay Boris Johnson's, I'm stuck on a zipline moment.

30:57And the hope, I guess, is that he's going to get the front pages and newspapers. The hope is that the times, or telegraph, or somebody will show a picture of him falling off his paddleboard with a cheeky headline, and that's how he's going to get noticed. Now, I'm going to come to you because I'm sure you've got a defensive, but they're going to be a little defensive, and then I'll move on to what really troubles me about it. I mean, does it work first, do you think it's going to drive him up? I think there's a real problem for the liberal Democrats in this election. Well, the several real problems.

31:26One is that they have not been the third party in the last parliament. So they've not been as visible. The SMP has been the third party. They're the ones that get the more questions in parliament, etc. Within the media debate, because our right -wing media has this obsession with the future of the Conservative Party, reform just after sort of, you know, wave their arms and they get coverage. For the Lib Dems and the Greens, it's much, much harder to get any coverage. So I think if you look at what is the serious point behind what he's trying to do, is essentially to say, look at us as well. Okay.

32:00So I think, and I don't think it's about the newspapers, so much is getting onto the broadcast media and giving them stuff that they can then sort of push out on social media as well. And are they getting on the broadcast media? So for example, when he fell off the paddleboard, I don't know whether they were covering it live, but as soon as they got the pictures in, they were there. And then what it led to was Tim Farron, former leader and Ed Davie, current leader, being interviewed in their wet suits, dripping wet, talking about sewage, talking about sewage and how the conservatives would like to let the people down in water.

32:30And then likewise, when he did the whole thing was coming down the slide, which I agree with. I got the real warrior by the way, my son, he got a message saying, you know, at least Ed Davie's cheering is all up a bit. But I, the message then, I think they were talking about mental health. There was about getting mental health support into every school. Okay. So that was, that was a setting of sort of play and the kind of thing. He then, the picture, the next one I saw, he had a sort of a funny chef's hat. And you mentioned Boris Johnson. It's interesting how when Johnson did all this stuff, nobody batted an eyelid.

33:04And he was like the leader of one of the two main parties. So David, I think that's the reason he's doing it. And then I think because that became a bit of a thing, Ed Davie, that was how he got noticed. And by the way, on the visibility thing that we talked about in our poll, he's still way down, way down in Sunuck and Starrmer, but, but gone up in terms of visibility. Let me just finish this point. And then on a Saturday that he posted a picture, we talked to him on leading about his son who's got very severe learning difficulties and other disabilities. And he he posted a picture of himself just putting his face into his son's face.

33:40You can only see the side of the sun and said, this weekend, time off doing the thing that matters to me most. Now, I think that's genuine. But at the same time, I think the fact that Ed Davie's pictures had become a bit of a thing probably meant that was that got a more sympathetic hearing than it would have done. But we're not really seeing evidence in the polling that this is helping the Lib Dems. In fact, what we're seeing in our own polls is that more and more Lib Dem voters are thinking of voting labor. So this is where I'm going to come back against that, Davie. I think this is a mistake.

34:13I think that with Boris Johnson, these kind of ludicrous stunts were on brand. I mean, the guy his brand was he was a clown and a buffoon. So if you see him stuck on a zip line waving a tiny union jack, everyone's like, oh, Boris, and that funny, right? Ed Davie is not that guy. As people will know who've listened to our and if you're on leading, if you haven't, I encourage you to do so. He's actually a pretty dry figure. He's not a big Joker. So it's completely sort of it's unlike Boris. It doesn't represent his personality. I'm pleased that you say he's managing to get some serious messages in behind.

34:49But boy, that isn't coming through on the print media. I mean, they're just showing these photographs with jokes. There's nothing about the story. And the reason I think about this is that I can synthesize this. When I was a politician, I was able to use comic mishaps, my faking selfie to then get three million views for my argument for a custom union. I was able to generate one and a half million views for stuff on national service off the back of comedy. My question with Ed Davie is, is he really managing to use these moments to cut his policies to? And I'm not sure he is. Well, I think you've got to see they're probably thinking about this in stages.

35:28So first stage visibility. We haven't got the dates yet for the manifesto's, but the manifesto's will be important. Obviously, the main focus will be Labour and Tory, but the smaller parties will have their moment in the sun with the manifesto. That's when he will get a fair hearing across most of the mainstream media, certainly the broadcast media, about what it is he's saying. And then you're into the last stage of the campaign. What I say is I think the biggest handicap they've got for them is that unlike the last several elections, certainly since 2010, there's no debate going on about whether we might have a hung parliament.

36:05That is the real disadvantage to the Lib Dems of Labour's massive lead. And you're complete right, that's number one. Number two is they've made this bizarre decision not to talk about Brexit when the other two parties aren't talking about Brexit. And that's partly because a lot of the seats that they're going for are Tory held with a still pretty strong pro Brexit. Yeah, or though, actually, I mean, if we look at things like Cheltenham where my friend Alex Chalk is defending a small majority, that was a big remain voting seat. Yeah. I think, and this is why I don't know, I'm very bad at predicting the future, but my guess is that the Lib Dems will do quite badly in national votes, that the Labour will steal their votes.

36:47And one of the reasons is, I fear that they're completely failing to produce serious, credible national policies. So there's Kirsta in black and white looking very serious, very prime ministerial. And there is Ed Davie falling three times off a paddle board and waiting his hands around. And I think if you're looking at that squeezing, you know, why are 30 % of Lib Dem voters this week going to Labour, which is nearly the double the number last week. I think it's that you're beginning to think, I'll forget the saying, you know, someone like me, for example, I attempt to devote Lib Dem. I have voted Lib Dem in the past, right?

37:24I look at this stuff. I'm like, I couldn't say, I can't really bear to go and depend on, I might actually begin tracking towards more serious party. Yeah, well, the point you make about authenticity, because the thing is you can't imagine Kirsta, I'm standing on a paddle board and falling off without him, looking really embarrassed about it. He is serious. I think the serious stuff's kind of getting through. And it may be that's what people want. I hope so. I hope that people are actually looking for more serious politicians. I still think there's something very Paul Johnson who we should say to people, by the way, is the interview this week on the rest is money.

37:54Paul Johnson, the Institute of Physical Studies, he keeps making the point. I think he's right that even though there's a lot of folk, there's a lot of debate going on, the debates feel very small compared with the scale of the issues that we're facing. Exactly. So let's just run through some of the things that really could be being talked about. They could be talking about how we could get close to the Europe, do something like a customs union, transform our trade and our security policy. They could be talking about adult social care, which is a disgusting disgrace in this country. They could be talking about a wealth tax, which would make a huge difference to the revenue that comes in.

38:33Which Patrick Diamond, who was a special advisor with us, was in the observant that we can very, very strongly advocate. He's now an academic. Here's another one that I would love to see Kirsta Amidu, and I have no idea why he doesn't do it. I'd love to see him say, this is a government that is going to deal with the disgraceful, shameful conditions for the most vulnerable. Our prisons are disgusting, filthy, violent, kind of inhumane, homelessness are disgrace. The very poorest people, let's say, in the bottom 5, 8 % in our country are living in very, very horrible conditions. What we will do as labour is we are going to focus on the most vulnerable.

39:13I think, yeah, okay, maybe that's not a big vote when I'm with the Daily Mail, but I think it's on brand, it's compassionate, something that people could get behind. I've no idea why Starlight's not doing that. I don't know if you had time to read it. I put in our WhatsApp group, an article from the conversation about the black market that is now operating within food banks within the food industry, stolen food now being sold into... I mean, the extent to which poverty has fallen off the agenda is really a lot really bad. And it goes to get this back market stuff to return to something we often talk about is again, an argument for cash.

39:48I mean, one of the problems is that people are in poverty have a lot of different needs, and they're being forced sometimes to sell food to get cash to get some other desperate needs that they have to face. House, clothing, etc. Access to healthcare. So the problem is that we have a welfare state that is not working in the way that it would in obviously Scandinavia, Netherlands, etc. And I'd like to see labour say, that's where we're going. And this isn't time afraid, you know, I understand why they're doing free school meals, but it isn't really about free school meals. It's about saying, here are millions of people in our country.

40:28And it's getting away from what Labour wants to say, which is the problem the country is the top 1 % against the bottom 99. In some ways it's saying the problem the country is actually the top 60 % who own houses and a reasonably comfortably off. And then at the bottom of 5 % in horrible conditions that labour should already be fixing up. Now, if the Lib Dems struggle to get coverage, then we should talk a little about the Greens. And of course, one of the things the Lib Dems are doing, we've talked about this before, they have got a pretty targeted strategy on a relatively small number of seats in the dozens.

41:00Whereas the Greens, although they'll be fielding candidates all over the country, they essentially are targeting four seats. They want to try to get four MPs. Which should be huge. They only have one before. They've got one which is Karan Lucas. And again, we should recommend the interview we did with her. She's in Brighton, Pavilion. She's been replaced by Sean Berry. And she has a very, she's her majority is almost 20 ,000. Let me just quickly run through the other three, because there's some interesting sort of, I'm not quite convinced of the thinking behind these. North Harifordshire, Bill Wigan.

41:31Well, that seems difficult. Well, that's a massive Tory majority. It seems difficult. So Bill Wigan is a very, very traditional Tory MP. I think an old Etonian, you know, very much into cattle farming. I think his father may have been an MP. Thank you, ring. Please have a big, big ring. Definitely. A real stalwart. He was in Parliament with me. Very kind of old -fashioned Shires Tory MP. That, that seems to me a stretch to get, to get progressive greens in there. Right. The next one, in fact, they've, I sit in the next two together, because it shows the sort of the difficulties they might, they might have.

42:04Do you know this thing, electoral calculus, which is a site that sort of goes through? It's very interesting. Again, we should put it in the newsletter. And they go through, you can look at every seat and they've got their analysis of the way it leans. So if you take Bristol Central, which is a new constituency, Sangam Debenair, Shadow Culture Secretary. You've pointed out as a sort of concert level PMS. Yeah, I'll play. I'll play. And she's going to be up against for the Greens, one of their co -leaders, Carla Denea. Now, electoral calculus says that Bristol Central is strong left, with left -wing economic and socially liberal views, high levels of university education, internationalist outlook, including strong opposition to Brexit.

42:42It is the most pro -immigration constituency in the UK. 55 % of voters there want fewer controls and higher numbers in Bristol. So that is a, that's, if you think about where Labour's campaign's been coming from, you know, immigration, defence. Yes. Israel, Gaza. You can see how Sangam Debenair might have a, have a fight on it. So you're pointing that Bristol is so left -wing progressive that actually Starmall seem a bit right -wing for some of the Bristol voters. And also the last local elections, all 14 Bristol City Council members in that area were Greens. So that's a, that's a proper big fight.

43:14No doubt about it. Waveringist Central is, this is again, it's a very different sort of constituency. So Waveringist Central, it straddles North of Canesafak, it's characterised by electoral calculus as strong right, right -wing economic and social views, high -home ownership levels, strong support for Brexit. And I think probably right alongside Liz Truss's seat, isn't it? Absolutely. And Liz Truss has a big majority seat. Yeah. Although I'm hoping people are going to vote for the independent Jays. Well, I've been looking into that, Rory, I've been looking into that. The only people who can beat Liz Truss a Labour.

43:48I'm sorry, but it's true. It's true. Look at the numbers. I suppose if he took people who would never think of voting Labour. Yeah, that's what he's going to do. Okay. Well, that's fine. So as long as you know, his pitch is, his pitch is, he wants to get moderate conservators voting. Did you see the Labour vote? She did a huge interview with her local paper. And honestly, it was nuts. Anyway, basically she was asked, how does she feel about the fact that people view her as the worst prime minister? There's ever been. And she said, I'm not the worst prime minister. Guess who she said? Don't know.

44:21Tony Blair. Tony Blair was the worst prime minister because he gave us the Equality's Act, the Human Rights Act. How very odd. It was utterly. So, I mean, I, I, to be a bit grim from it, I honestly do not understand why Liz Truss is standing again for Parliament. She was a catastrophic prime minister. She was a poor minister. Why doesn't she leave? Why is she trying to come back in again? What else is she going to do? What else is she going to do? And also she's, she's part of this sort of forageification of politics, where it's about profile, it's about money in America, it's about hanging out with the banan, it's about being a disruptor.

45:02And I guess she gets to do that as a member of Parliament, because some people in America who aren't following British politics very closely might convince themselves she's a future prime minister or something. All right, quick break. That's enough on the election. And we're going to be coming back after the break where we will be talking about South Africa and we'll be talking about Israel and Palestine.

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47:03Welcome back to the Restisted Politics with Mirois Juit. And Mi Honest Campbell. And the story, Anastya, that we're going to get on to now is South Africa, where there has been an unbelievable election result. So the ANC, which has been the ruling party in South Africa since the end of apartheid, and which has regularly pulled over 60%. It's always got over 50%. So it's dominated the National Assembly. Was predicted in some of the polls that it might drop down below 50%. But it's plummeted. It's down at 40%. It's a kind of incredible loss. It's lost, you know, 15 % in the national polls. In places like Quazulu Natal, which are really important states, it's kind of hampered 40%.

47:46So just put it in context, before we get into the micro details, just give us a sense of why the ANC was so dominant, why this drop is so historically significant. Well, just on the numbers. So as you say, they've won every election with a majority since apartheid since Nelson Mandela first became president. So 1994, they got 62 .5 % of the vote. 99 went up, 66 .4, 2004 went up even more to 70. That was its highest ever, 2009, 66, 2014, 62. And then the last election, 57 .5. So it's gone like that, and then like that, and now it's gone like that. Absolutely. But even 57 .5, you know, by UK standards or anyone's a crazy, because it's a proportional representation system.

48:33So normally, I mean, you look at Israel, which is proportional representation. And at parties, they're getting in with 3%, 5%, 9 % of the vote. And it's all about coalitions usually. But in this case, they're just blowing it out of the water election after election after election until now. And the reason why it's so significant is because, you know, the ANC essentially was the, that was the body that led the fight for apartheid, the sort of huge heroes of modern South African history, Mandela particularly. That's their political home, that's their political base. And I guess what it's saying is that the massive hopes that people had for South Africa to become what it had the potential to be, a great, prosperous, successful country, have not materialized.

49:18But one of the things that's most incredible about this result, so lots of party standing, ANC. Sort of 50 parties, so. 51 parties, I think, in total. Yeah. ANC winning, democratic alliance, which is seen as the more, the party that favors the white population. Yeah, although it's a little bit more complicated. You're right. I mean, it's got prominent white leaders. But some people frame these, these divisions in sort of linguistic terms. So you've got the big, big vote, which we're going to get onto. And I'm sure you're going to expand a second, which is the vote for Jacob Zuma. It's now predominantly Zulu.

49:55The vote for the DA, democratic alliance, is predominantly English and African speaking, although many of those voters are in fact black. Yeah. Right. And then the ANC vote, a lot of it, is co -servote. So there's a sort of tribal ethnic thing beginning to emerge in South Africa politics. Well, so if you go through the reasons why the ANC was expecting the risk of going below 50%. I don't think any of them expected to go quite as low as they've gone. A lot of the reasons were economic, power cuts, water shortages, poverty, poor housing, etc. I add that unemployment, which is unbelievable. Official unemployment figures, 37%.

50:32That's official. I mean, under employment, people out of the workforce, much higher, it's unimaginable. But the other big thing was corruption. And yet, the big gainer out of this election seems to be Jacob Zuma, probably the most corrupt of all the presidents that they've had when he was president, with all sorts of investigations going on to him past present and future. And yet, he has the potential to be something of a kingmaker. Although the ANC are making clear that one of his part of the MK, one of their central demands is that his successor, Silor Ramaposa, has to go and the ANC say that is not happening.

51:15So coming back to the maths as a thing, in order to be president of South Africa, you need the majority of the votes in the national assembly. Yes. No, the president is not directly elected. You elect the assembly and they decide who the president is. So you need more than 50%. The ANCs drop down to 40%. So they've got three options. They could try to go over the smaller parties. And that will involve relying on the EFF, which is Julius Malayma, walks around the Redberry, kind of proto -Marxist, nationalization of minds, confiscation of land, this kind of stuff. But even that, because the EFF actually didn't perform very well.

51:52They didn't do well. They were hit by MK as well. Yeah. So they got down to maybe 9%. So it's still not quite enough. That would only 49%. So they'd have to bring in some other small parties as well. Or they can try to reform the old ANC coalition, which means bringing the EFF and bringing in Jacob Zuma. And Jacob Zuma got 15 % of the votes, a big big vote coming in behind. And that would push them above. Third option, which of course is the one more appealing to people like me who are more sort of on the center rights and who want more kind of tetacritic economic policies would be to get coalition.

52:26Yeah. Oh, and get together with the Democratic Alliance. And that again, because Democratic Alliance got 22 % of the vote would put them comfortably into a majority, but would really alienate a lot of the ANC base who perceive the DA as being a white party, too much for a right -wing party. So all to play for, people like me, massive economic optimism if they make a coalition with the DA. Worst case scenario coalition with Jacob Zuma, because Zuma is a really, as you say, not just very corrupt. You know, people have heard about the Gupta scandal, maybe where credible, astonishing deals being put together.

53:03But there's literally call state capture. It's been identified as state capture. And this is this was an Indian business family that with billions to play just sort of taking over a whole bits of government contracting procurement. But he's also somebody who's a classic populist. He is rejecting the election result claims he actually got two thirds of the vote and that the 15th century is even saying that it was rigged in those areas where he won by a mile. So no, and he's got, there is certain Trumpian elements, not just to sort of calling out the result, but also some of the scandals he's involved in the past where he says his case has been rigged against him.

53:43I mean, we're seeing a pattern here. But so the interesting, I looked at some of the South African media state. I think it was the Sunday Times that headline was beaten ANC, pushes for GNU, government of national unity. Now, of course, that wouldn't be the first time. Because if you go back to the very start, there was a government of national unity put together with Mandela and Declurk. And it was one of the reasons why they got a Nobel Peace Prize that they led this New South Africa together. They later declared later left and the ANC then governed on its own. So it's not impossible. I think you're right that the international community is probably thinking, come on, go for it.

54:22But domestically, that's very, very difficult for the ANC. And I think just before we finish just stepping back from it, in the context of what is really a year of elections, a year of fighting country by country, basically a fight between progressive liberals and populists, South Africa is a really important bellweather, largest economy in Africa, housing millions of refugees. Probably the most educated population, Africa, the most technologically advanced country, one of the bricks along with Brazil, Russia, India, China. And this is happening at the same time when it looks like Narendra Modi, the populist in India is about a win.

55:06So this is really important, really important, not just for South Africa, but for the whole of Africa and actually for geopolitics in general. Yeah, just to give you the champion theme, just to give you a few things that went on. So the ANC forced out Zuma in 2018 under threat of impeachment. He was jailed for refusing to testify in a judicial panel on corruption. Went into jail, came out after two months, released on medical grounds. Equated a rape in 2006, but still facing charges about bribes from weapons dealers. And all along, everything that's thrown at him is a political witch hunt. And he can't sit in the national somehow.

55:46So he's you know, he's led his party to a pretty impressive electoral. Yeah. Feet. And one of the things he's done, he's basically collapsed the IFP, which was Mangutu, butalaisi, Zulu party, which was quite an important thing. Yeah, they're not that they were part of that first. South African politics, because he's taken the Zulu vote away. And so I think the IFP now down at about three and a half percent of the vote may be an important part of a coalition. If you brought the DAN this more sort of center right party, because it would give a bit more of a flavor of a coalition, but it ceased to be a major political force because it's a election.

56:23Yeah. One final point for me is turnout. And this is something we're going to see in I fear could happen in our election as well. I hope not, but turnout very a lot lower than it had been, which again reflecting not just the decline, but a decline in the belief in politics, can do stuff at all. And I must say, I think, you know, I hate the old cliche turning in the grave, but I'd love to be able to know what Mandela would think about what's going on, because when you think about the hope that he represented to the world, I have to say there's only two famous people with whom I've been photographed where I have those pictures on my wall in my office.

56:59One is Mandela and the other is? Yeah, the other is that Argentinian footballer. Correct. Correct. Yeah, go over her. So they both begin with them and end today, but he would be, I think, pretty heartbroken by this, even though I guess for most political parties, 40 % of the general election, you'd say that was, I mean, you know, if Kirsten gets 40%, it's going to be quite happy. Be pretty pleased, yeah. But I think that for the ANC, given the way that the history of that country could have gone, it's very sad. And of course, it raises the fear of course amongst many South Africans that just the structural problems are so deep.

57:34You know, people hoped that getting rid of Zoom a last time, bringing an answer around a poster would turn this all around. It hasn't turned it all around and people could pretty glimmy, I guess. Yeah. And a big thank you to my friend, Greg Mills, who's patiently trying to explain and keep me upstate on South African politics and also Josh Winnott, who we've talked about before, who writes the newsletter. And we're getting on now to the subject of Israel Guadalajan. We're going to start with Biden's peace plan. So Biden's peace plan, I just quick summary for you. Three parts. First part is supposed to be a full and complete ceasefire for six weeks, as well with drawing troops from density populated areas and hammers, releasing elderly hostages and women.

58:18Second stage is release of all remaining hostages, including soldiers with a total withdrawal from Israel. Third phase, return of hostage remains and money going into reconstructing Gaza. This was brought together in Paris, the negotiation between Bill Burns, who's the head of the CIA, David Baneer, who's the head of Mossad and the catary foreign minister, who we both know, Sheikh Mohammed, who discussed this. This is not very, very different actually from the deal that was supposed to be put together in Cairo a couple of months ago. It seemed as though, because the head of Mossad was there, that Israel had approved this plan.

58:56But rather curious, the order was meant to be an Israeli peace plan. It was not announced by Israel. It was announced by Joe Biden. I mean, there have been so many, not just in this recent episode of the Israel Gaza story, but over decades, there have been so many attempts, new dawns, false starts. But it was, I think, significant that Joe Biden felt able to go out and do that address that he did. And say that it was an Israeli peace plan. And say that it was an Israeli plan. I cannot believe that you would have done that without the Israelis knowing, seeing every word that he was intending to say.

59:35He didn't take any questions. So it was very much, this is a script. But you're right, that my immediate thought was, well, what's going to count here is the reaction of the Israelis and Hamas. And the Israeli reaction has been ambiguous, to say the least. You've had nothing clear and specific. You've certainly had no acceptance. You haven't had from Netanyahu's mouth. This is an Israeli plan. So I think what's happened is that he's seeing how the reaction is elsewhere, which has been interesting. So you've got the problem he has, as everybody knows this by now, I'm sure is that he's got this coalition government in which an awful lot of power rests with the finance minister, Smotrich and the national security minister, Eta Marben Gaveir.

1:00:26These are two different parties, but similar outlook and they would be defined as extreme. They are extreme. And when Netanyahu says that the war aim is to destroy Hamas, which a lot of his own people have said, that's an overexaggerated objective to set. That is what these two are saying has to happen. The quote from Smotrich is that there have to be no half measures in his quotas, the total and utter destruction, not of Hamas, but of Raffa. Yeah, total and utter destruction. Now, so into that mix, we have the issue of Benny Gantz that we talked about before, remember the war cabinet, who's been making noises about walking away.

1:01:07That would be less politically significant than Smotrich and Ben Gaveir because Benny Gantz is a member of the war cabinet, not necessarily the government in coalition. But you've now got opposition leader, Yaya Lapid, essentially saying, if they do do that, we will support you on this plan. So in the end, this is going to be a political judgment as much as a security judgment. It seems as though Netanyahu initially rejected the plan, then the majority of his cabinet pushed him to accept it. And then when it's come out, I mean, he used the word in his reaction, and he's a very, obviously, incredibly experienced politician, he managed to produce the word a non -starter.

1:01:51So is this not a bit of a kind of slap in the face for Biden? I mean, it doesn't make him look very strong to come out, make us a big announcement. I think it was this kind of huge room in the peace plan, really. It was, it was happening whilst America was utterly consumed with the fallout from Trump's trial. So he's coming out as serious, big issues, leader of the free world, as it were. Big statesman thing. But it's actually quite modest. I mean, this isn't the two states solution. This isn't the future for how Israel deals with power centers. This is just get the hostages back, stop the bombing, put a bit of reconstruction money in.

1:02:32So shouldn't be that controversial. He lines it up. It seems with Israel. He announces it. And then suddenly Netanyahu comes out and says, it's a non -starter. Did he say that himself? He produced it. Yeah, the phrase non -starterist and part of Netanyahu's response. Yeah. Right. And then, and then, and then, and so that of course gets picked up at the press. But just, I mean, the other thing, of course, which you, you know, we've talked about a little bit in the background is that Biden said that a red line was Israel going into Ruffa, you know, Ruffa is the area where they're now conducting military operations.

1:03:05And so the White House has been falling over backwards to say, well, when we said that, we meant not going into population centers, then Israel went to population centers. Then they're like, oh, well, we meant no major operations in population centers. Me, my, the operation said. And the result is that Israel has been dropping American bombs, including a bomb that sparked this fire, basically in a in a refugee camp. And Biden now looks as though he sets a red line, says you won't go into Ruffa, Israel goes into Ruffa. He says, here's the peace plan we've agreed. And Israel basically humiliates him and rejects the peace plan.

1:03:40And, and somebody I was talking to on the ground said that for many Palestinians, and people in the region, they're beginning to feel that these operations in Ruffa almost have nothing to do with Palestinians or Hamas. It's some game between Israel and the United States, or some game just to do with propping up this in Yahu's coalition by sounding it so he can be aggressive towards Biden. But it can't, I suppose what I just want to get to is it can't make Biden look strong. No, because I suppose it makes him, it shows that he's just not giving up at trying to get this thing in the right place.

1:04:13It shows that he's prepared to take risks. He will know better than anybody that dealing with Netanyahu is a very, very tricky thing to do. It's not beyond Netanyahu to say one thing to his face and then say something else. I think, you know, we've had experience of that. I think the other thing that's been interesting has been the extent to which the issue of the hostages has not gone away, isn't going away. There was actually a big margin London yesterday and there was a big margin in Washington with the same slogan, bring them home now. And I think there is a feeling that Netanyahu isn't really as focused on that as he should be because he's so concerned about keeping this coalition together with the hard right being in such an extreme position.

1:04:58We know somebody who's got a relative who's involved in the hostage situation and who said that at a meeting, that Netanyahu and others had with some of the families of the hostages, one of them came out saying, God, it's like we're the problem. It was always like they were saying, why are you making our lives so difficult when we're trying to destroy our mass? And I think there's the centuries this is now driven by the politics and the political survival of Netanyahu is not underestimated. Stepping back again for a moment to remind people about what's happening in Gaza itself. So, you know, well over 30 ,000 people have now been killed.

1:05:37People will be aware that the operations moved down to Rafa, that the Israelis took over the strip that divides Gaza from Egypt. And the humanitarian crisis has shifted again. So, another million people have been displaced. I was talking early this morning to somebody who's working on the humanitarian convoys. It's a very nasty picture. There have been changes. I mean, there'll be moments of improvement, moments of getting worse, moments of improving again. I don't want to go through all the details the last few weeks. Sometimes more trucks get through the crossings, sometimes fewer. The crossings have to change.

1:06:12But the basic story is that it's incredibly difficult for humanitarian agencies to deliver basic support to people. Much more difficult than I'm used to in other situations. You know, I was a different minister. I was in Somalia, Sassoudan, DRC. In these countries, broadly speaking, the aid agencies can get stuff across borders. But these borders are completely controlled by the Israeli army with the exception of this American floating pier, which has been damaged by storms. So, it's all to do with who Israel will let through. And you know, it's well, the Egyptians have got to roll this. And the Egyptians have also got to roll this.

1:06:52But primarily, it's Israeli security checks. And this means that we are in a situation in which everything is going wrong in different ways. So, you know, sometimes the trucks get through. But then you can't get the fuel through. You can't get the generators through. Or you get sure humanitarian staff on the ground. But then the security risk means they have to withdraw. Or you don't have the cash. Or you can't get the road access to get in. So, there's all these moving parts happening again and again. Currently, there are about 3 ,000 children suffering from acute malnutrition. Of children under five, the majority of them are going days without eating.

1:07:30We've had situations of babies under one dying from lack of food. We've had children there early, teens dying. I mean, this is stuff where, you know, I'm used to in Somalia. You know, I've seen mothers in Somalia walking in with babies on their chests and that infant dying because they can't get plumping out. But for this to happen in a middle -income country, on the margins of one of the wealthiest countries on earth is beyond imagination. Yeah. And also, it's hard for us. I mean, it's, you know, it's great. You can talk to some of the people there and we can have conversations and the media can do a job up to a point.

1:08:06But it's impossible, genuine, to know what's happening on the ground because there's no pre -access to international media at all. Maybe we should close on this. I've just looked up the reactions of Ben Givir and Smotrich. So, Smotrich said, as soon as the plan was announced, he would not be part of a government that agrees to the proposed eyeline and ends the war without destroying Hamas. Ben Givir said, this deal means the end of the war and the abandonment of the gold to destroy Hamas. It is reckless, which can constitute a vitri -veterrorism and a security threat to the state of Israel and said he would dissolve the government rather than agree to the proposal.

1:08:45So, that's the choice that Netanyahu and I face. In other words, Smotrich and Ben Givir will not accept any ceasefire because any ceasefire involves accepting that their strategy, which I believe makes absolutely no sense. This fantasy that somehow through military operations, you can eliminate Hamas. It just doesn't stack up. There's no military example anywhere in the world that this kind of stuff allows you to eliminate a terrorist group. But they are continuing this strategy without an end because Hamas will never be crippled through these kind of operations. And of course, they're continuing it with the full support of American hardware, American weapons, American money.

1:09:26So, whatever Biden is saying, in effect, America is agreeing with the Israeli claim that it's somehow there is a military solution to Hamas. Okay, we're all that's it for this week. I suspect we'll be having another busy week. We're recording this Monday. It's going to be out Tuesday. Tomorrow evening, we'll be watching the TV debate between Rishi Tsunak and Keir Star, but then doing an instant podcast live. I also want to point our listeners to listen to the interview we've done with David Blanket. It's great. Yeah. I love that. I thought he was a real star. Real star. I do. I was impressed by that.

1:10:04And also, don't forget, if you haven't caught up already with our American colleagues and partners and friends, Anthony Scaramucci and Katty K, the rest is politics, you are. So all that and more to come. And before we go, little plug, this is the week where the paperback edition of my book, Politics on the Edge, is published, part of a four part series now with the other books that I published. And I'm doing a paperback tour. So going to be doing London, Pladium, Traveling to Bath, Traveling to Edinburgh, Traveling to Oxford, Traveling to Cambridge. Come along, please hear me live, talk about the elections.

1:10:36And please, if you get a chance, buy a copy of the paperback edition. Okay. And if we're in plugging mode, Roy, I'm leaving the studio shortly to go and record the audio of my next two books out shortly. Whereas you'll be more positive about politics than your paperback. That's right. I'm more about the grim reality when you vote and you're more about the positive dream. The drill is fantasy. All right, Roy, see you soon. See you soon.