265. Starmer vs Sunak - Round 2: Who won ‘The Battle For Number 10’?

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0:50Welcome to the Restus Politics with me, Anastakambo. And me, Rory Stewart. And this is a session for those you're not watching live being done straight after the debate. So this is our instinctive reaction. We're literally on 30 seconds after Rishi Tsunerke has stopped. Speaking very quick recap for people who haven't seen the debate, this was unusual. It wasn't actually a debate between two leaders at all. What happened is Beth Riggby of Skye sat down for, I guess, about 25 minutes. Yeah. Yeah. With Kierstama and then took audience questions for Kierstama, then sat down with Rishi Tsunerke and then took audience questions for Rishi Tsunerke.

1:30And we've just emerged from it. It's quite, quite long watch, hour and a half. Can I start before we get into the details of how they did? Given we grumbled about the format last time, you made jokes about 45 second answers. Do you think that's a slightly better format that gives you a bit more of a chance to do the job interview? I do. I think that the problem with the first format wasn't just the 45 seconds. I think it was also the fact that two leaders who are used to facing each other down over the dispatch box in the House of Commons, it was just a slightly glorified version of that. And once I think Rishi Tsunerke decided attack was going to be his best form of defense, he was going to really go for Kierstama.

2:12Kierstama I think was slightly knocked off in wobble in it and it just never recovered from that. It just became a kind of bickering match. I thought that it's interesting watching some of the reaction to the interviews. I think Bethhrieg be a good journalist. I think she's a pretty good interviewer. I think she decided she was just going to sort of try and pin Kierstama on tax. But I felt that was just a bit futile because he knows what he's going to say on tax. He's going to manifest her coming, everything's costed blah, blah, blah. We're not putting up this, we are putting up this and that's it.

2:45And he wasn't going to move on that. And likewise, I felt with Rishi Tsunerke that she felt she had to be pretty tough with him as well and the toughness was in two areas. One was on D -Day, which again and the state of the campaign really. And the other was on the conservative record. And she was pretty brutal on that. But I think I stopped on that just to take your criticism that you just made about the approach to Kierstama. Presumably, it's also true that she wasn't going to get that much out of him by asking him, do you feel ashamed of what you did in D -Day? Given that question quite a lot.

3:18And do you not think the campaigns have disaster? He's not going to be like, yeah, exactly. Exactly. But I think what she did with both of them was kind of not let them away with stuff. She kept coming back to Kierstama about tax. Actually, I think he handled it pretty well and he didn't get irritated, he didn't get irritable about it. He just kept saying the same thing. I actually thought for both, I thought Rishi Tsunerke was a lot less confident than the other day. And that's probably just because of the state of the campaign. And I thought Kierstama was a lot more confident. And I also felt that I was pleased that Kierstama, in fact, both of them.

3:59And I think this was another good consequence of this format. Neither of them, although Rishi Tsunerke got to it in the end, but they didn't spend the whole time attacking the other. Kierstama barely talked about the Tories, which I think is the right thing. And I hope he does that when he does the manifesto tomorrow. And so this night thought it was, I don't think it's a, you know, as we said of the first debate. I don't think it's a game changer, but I thought that it was, I thought, I thought you got a sense of the audience really not liking Rishi Tsunerke and really wanting to like Kierstama.

4:32That was the feeling I got from watching it. Yeah. I mean, I'm afraid it was damaging for Rishi Tsunerke. And we can get into that a little bit. But just to again, for people who didn't watch the debate and maybe for those who will please disagree in the comment section, that's what this live YouTube's about for you to enjoy. I've got to say, Roy, they're still, they're obsessed with your bloody parts. We stop asking about Rory's bloody parts. We're not talking about the parts. Just for those who don't know about Rory's parts, Rory confessed on the podcast recently that he bought two pots for I think 2000 pounds.

5:07Since when our listeners have been begging to see the pots. And I, the complaint was that I'd paid a huge amount of import tax, bringing them from Holland. And I was complaining about us leaving European Union as part of my. Yeah. So yeah, just again, to summarize what rough pattern of the debate. So Bethrig be hit Kierstama very hard on one subject, which was what taxes are you going to put out? And she kept saying, okay, you're not ruling out these taxes. And she, you know, quite, quite rightly would explain that to the audience. Just go on that, Roy. She, she, she, she, set it in the broader context, though, of you, you once said that Jeremy Corbyn should would be a great Prime Minister.

5:48And you once tried to stop Brexit. That was a sort of, so are you somebody you just kind of changes your mind? I watch you was trying to get to, I think, was you'll change your mind on tax. That's kind of, so then she started to pin him. Yeah, absolutely. So, and his response was very, very firm. So in the background, she's presumably right that he's leaving the door open to increase taxes, which are not the big four that he's ruled out. So he's ruled out the really big tax rises, but she's probably right that he must be considering rewriting council tax, looking at capital gains tax, putting up fuel duty, not saying he will, not saying he won't, but she's probably right.

6:29It's an option for him. Where I think for the conservative vote, say he was probably very, very reassuring is just how much he's committed to fiscal responsibility. I mean, it'd be a bit terrifying, I think, actually, in some ways, if you're a progressive left -wing voter who thinks that we should be borrowing more and spending more, but for a conservative voter, that would have been deeply reassuring. There was also an interesting time when he said he didn't want to make the mistake that other Labour governments had done of putting up tax and spending more. Yeah, come across to you because you presumably must sort of bridle at that and think.

7:04I did bridle a bit. I actually think there was one bit where he was talking about Labour. And another bit where he meant he wasn't going to make the same mistake as let's trust his government. But yeah, he talked about Labour leaders in the past. He'd always pull the hand on the tax lever. Well, I think we were pretty good on tax and we were pretty regular. But I think what he's doing, yeah, but just quickly, but what that works, of course, is that given that a lot of the Tory listeners think that's what Labour does, it's going to be reassuring for them to hear him say, I'm not going to do what Labour government normally do, whether or not, as you say, it's actually an accurate description of Labour governments.

7:41I thought the other thing, and I wonder whether this is the thing that they wanted to kind of land. We talked about how in the first debate, soon I wanted to land the £2 ,000 tax rise alleged and Kirsta wanted to land the fact that you've been in power for 14 years and nothing has got better. He twice used this phrase either a plan for wealth creation or a plan for growth. He was trading the manifesto. Seeing this as a plan for wealth creation. And again, he said, you know, you might not hear Labour leaders talk about that. He was basically, and that was also his way of dealing with the Corbin question.

8:16I thought at the start, the Corbin stuff was getting a bit tedious, but I understand what she was trying to do there was basically saying, well, you said this then, and now you're saying this, who are you? He was basically saying, well, I'm the guy who realised that we have to change Labour Party, and I've changed it. So I thought he did pretty well, and there's a lot of negativity about Beth Rigby coming through in the chat. I thought she was okay. Yeah, I got a lot of that. Tickley on Twitter, a lot of people felt she was interrupting. She obviously was very anxious about time. I mean, we both, she kept saying, running out of time, running out of time, I go to get on the next question, I got to get on the other side.

8:58And they both of them gave quite long answers that didn't always need it. I think they, I think I wonder with Kirsta, whether he felt that was the Julietching and one, whether he was just sort of allowing himself, he didn't interrupt, he didn't push back. But I got the feeling that he, the points that he set out to make, he definitely made them. Whereas I felt with Rishi Sunei tonight, he looked a bit broken to me. He looked like he was not in the audience. Yeah, let's get on to Sina Kun second, but just to just to summarise, I put out a tweet asking for responses, and I've got hundreds of people writing in, putting positive and negative some, Kirstaama, and broadly speaking, the positives are that they felt that Kirstaama connected better with the audience than he did with Beth Rigby.

9:44They liked the fact that he said he was not going to be tribal. I like that too. One of the things that I've been talking to you about with our recent conversations with Rachel Reeves and with Bridget Phillipsson is that I do feel there's a little danger that some of his shadow cabinet can sound a bit tribal. Yeah, they have really great backstories. They passionately believe in social justice and they've been labour, born and bred, and they can sound like they really don't like Tories. It's very reassuring for the floating voters to have someone say, I came into politics late, I'm not that tribal.

10:20And also, I thought you'd like that. He said something very similar about how if he does get into power, that he wants the whole country regardless of how they're voting, regardless of how they're thinking, regardless of what their policies are, to feel that we all have this vested interest in trying to get the country going again. Now, I thought that picture messaging was good. One more that I thought he did very well, because we just actually, people have a chance to listen to it on leading the Bridget Phillipsson giving the same answer on the question of what happens to kids that move from one school to another.

10:57It was different. He was very good at empathizing, very good at saying this and I've got no problem with private schools. I respect aspiration. I've got a lot of time for parents who want to do that with their kids. But I have a problem in secondary schools. I need the money. This is what it's going to be spent on, 6 ,000 teachers, this problem with maths, P teachers, something else. It's not a tax on working people. It's just removing a tax exemption. The whole tone of it was, yeah, empathetic, sounded like he was listening, sounded like actually he was taking seriously the problem. He kept coming back this phrase, which I think he does quite well, which is, I'm making tough choices.

11:37He did that with the junior doctor too. I think that works well. I thought with that one on the private school, as with the first debate, the ITV debate, he did not resile one inch from the policy and he explained it, but as you said, he did it in a way that was quite empathetic to the guy who was saying, that this could be a problem for me. I thought it was interesting. You can always get a sense of, I mean, I think I told you today that I saw a poll that said only 11 % of the public are aware that Kierstarr was dad, was a toolmaker, even though in the chattering classes, it's become a sort of, and actually they laughed tonight when he said he was a toolmaker.

12:17And there was one point, what was the point when there was something that Rishi Soonak said, where they laughed that in, which I thought he would have, was it the house price when he talked about the 19 -year -old and he said, you know, and again, it's up to £240, £425 ,000. Now, all he was doing, this is a classic example, a bit like his thing with the sky, you know, where what he's saying is perfectly reasonable, okay, he's explaining what the policy is, or the policy would be if they go elected, but he can't feel the politics, that if you are using an example in that audience, talking about a house at £400, first time buyer at £425 ,000, they're going to laugh at you.

13:02And that's just a lack of, that's a lack of political feel. Okay, so one second, I promise we're going to get on to Rishi, but the negatives on Kier Samar, just before we go on to Rishi Soonak, coming from the feedback, boring, too rehearsed, too reticent, no clear answers on tax, a little nervous, a number of people saying he's long -winded. Somebody actually quite technically said if you watch, he often puts the answers at the end, and seems to spend quite a long time getting to them, which means he often gets timed out. And I think there's quite a lot of frame this, but I think a general sense that he dealt very badly with the question on, are you robotic?

13:50Very old Lee, that was the one where he suddenly sounded like a robot whose sparks had gone wrong. Guy was like, do you think a robot, he was like, what, what, what, I'm not a robot, I'm not a robot. I mean, yeah, yeah, I agree that wasn't that wasn't his best dancer at all. I think if I'd have been him, I'd have said, look, you know, Beth has already suggested that some people might say I'm boring. I've got to tell you, if you think I've got, if I'm less charismatic, than Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, I'm going to live with it. Yeah, yeah, just plain to being a serious politician. What, one more question for you, is there anything more that you can do?

14:30Let's say for the sake of argument, you're keeping back the option of raising certain taxes, but you definitely don't want to say it. What sort of formulations can you use to sound sincere, authentic, and that you're answering the question? Is there any way of saying to the audience, listen, we're not going to raise VAT and contacts, corporation, tax, national insurance, but we are going, but and yes, you're right. You know, there are other taxes. They're not big taxes. They're not tax on working people, and we've got no plans to raise them. We're not reading them out either. I mean, is there anything that you can do there?

15:10Or is it just a few? Well, I saw that Rishi Sunad did it. He actually used the formula that I think is perfectly acceptable when he said, I'm not going to sit here and predict the economy for five years. Right. And I also think at one point, I think they came a point where Kier could have said to Beth Ringbe, Beth, I get what you're trying to do here. We've ruled out certain tax rises, and you're going to go through every other one. Well, just be aware, you're not going to get a different answer to the one I've already given you. Yeah. So put it to bed very quickly. So the audience then get bored as she tries to do it.

15:45Okay. Yeah. But I think the overall effect was, I think he achieved what he said out to do on tax. I saw that the Q &A, I saw they were both pretty good in it. I mean, I kind of, I was trying to tell myself, you know, because as you know, Rory, I'm quite tribal and I like big wins in campaigns. And I really want the stories. I loved the fact that there was a rabbit of flaws where Kierg got one of the loudest rounds of applause in the interview when he said any any government that leaves the country in a worse state than when it started deserves to be booted out. And I felt that really stood a struck record.

16:29But likewise, I thought that I kind of, there was part of me watching Rishi Sunak and starting to feel a bit sorry for him, which, and I can remember when Dennis Skinner, the great Dennis Skinner, who God, I wish he was still around and not lumped out of people, I lianlison. Well, he's still around, he's not standing. But I remember Dennis Skinner once saying to me, when people were sort of starting to feel a bit sorry for Gordon Brown, I remember Dennis phoning me and saying, this is dangerous, you've got to watch this, you cannot allow this to grow. Once you start feeling sorry for a politician, he's had it.

17:06Yeah. And I think, I think that that's right. So again, for listeners who didn't have a chance to see the debate, Rishi Sunak then comes then after 45 minutes of summer. And Stama has been smiling a little bit. It's looked quite confident, sitting back well in his chair, he's got a little bit of chat going on. I mean, a little bit stiff and robust, but broadly speaking, seemed relatively happy and confident. And I'm afraid Rishi Sunak came on and immediately seemed very tired, mentally, very tired, very beaten. There was a, he repeated two lines, which he rarely does, almost verbatim, a line on I was, you know, I was this debate with you and a line, I don't know what the other line is, I'm getting like him, I'm also getting mentally tired.

17:49But anyway, he repeated himself. And then he became, his tone with Beth Rigby was to say to almost every question, you're absolutely right, Beth, you know, it's true. We screwed up on this. What can I say? But I've been in for 18 months and we're making a bit of progress on numbers. And then she'd say, yeah, but the numbers are not great, other than going the wrong direction, he'd go, that's right. But, you know, we've reduced this by 25 % next year, we'll reduce it up by 5%. And the problem is that and I recognize that because I sometimes when I was very tired in my own constituency would get into this mode, which is disastrous.

18:33I would sometimes be sitting with my constituents late in the evening and I'd be thinking, listen, I'm working really hard. I know a lot about the subjects. I might even know more about the details of this than you do. And I'm going to try to be like, yeah, you're right, but this is all very complicated. And I'm going to try to expect you. And the problem is that that can seem patronizing, it can seem touching. Nobody's interested in you signaling that you're working hard, you feel underappreciated, and that you understand the details better than the person asking you the question. And then the final thing, is that in the second half, when he's with the audience, it seemed even stranger.

19:10There was a moment I'm afraid towards the end where he began to sound, any whether you recognize from this from your own life, I don't know, but he began to sound like a teacher who'd lost control of his classroom. It was that awful sense for teacher trying to make it through his lesson plan with the audience, the children just totally turned off, nobody listening anymore. He seemed 20 years older than the rest of us. He seemed to so he had an essay plan to go through. And we're all sitting there thinking guys, this guy's lost it. What did you make of his sugar answer?

19:50We've tried to do that with Rachel Reese. I've tried to do that Bridget Fiddleton. She tried to do it with Kier Samu. It's the end of the interview. You want something fun and possible and jolly. And once she said, Kier Samu, tell us a bit about yourself. He said, well, what people don't know about me is I've got a deep sense of public service. So I guess he was either way. Joey should have said, Joey should have said, I'm a really dirty footballer.

20:16Why would it be an interesting to his true? And she would have been taken aback. Richie told us that he had a terrible diet. I think that was desperate in the green room. He was watching Kier Samu and not really having an answer. And somebody said, you've got to say something that sounds human. So he sort of pulled that out. But yeah, nobody won't be leading the country in trying to encourage an improvement in public health once the virus said. I should be telling everybody that I wrote it all the time. Yeah. Yeah. Somebody actually just said actually, there's a very good point. Somebody just said, what kid should have said is, did you know my dad was a toolmaker?

20:56That would have ruled the house down. But, Joey, there's something annoying about the way they, I mean, it's like, you and I do loads of events and people say things like, you know, tell us something funny. And you kind of feel I say, well, I'm not a comedian. You know, I'm not a comedian. Get my thoughts out. I like your, I'm a dirty footballer. That's good. Yeah. Yeah. That's good. That's good. Yeah. That's good. Yeah. Yeah. I like that. What did you, what did you make of the the questions that were chosen? I mean, it's interesting. I'm assuming that a bit like question time sky would have sort of sifted the audience worked out.

21:34You know, it's interesting, for example, that, you know, in place like Grimsby, actually Brexit was mentioned more than any of the previous debates that we've seen. Brexit in terms of impact on the NHS, Brexit in terms of immigration, Brexit in terms of the economy. I thought it was interesting as well that there was a question there about racism in the police and again, you know, in what we would define as a kind of northern red wall seat, as it were, round of applause for the black woman who said, you know, this is a problem, what are you going to do about it? And I think that's the other thing that I've felt about this whole debate in the last couple of years since Johnson really and since Brexit, this kind of, these mythologies that have developed about politics in one part of the country is completely different to other parts of the country.

22:24It's just not the case. Yeah, so either the questions were interesting. There were, you know, the one or two there that were a little bit unexpected, which made it maybe more interesting than the other night as well. Emily Anderson, should they have talked more about God's or in foreign affairs? Well, they weren't asked about it and I think that was probably a deliberate thing. I think that what Beth Brighby wanted to do was to really sort of pin them both on domestic stuff. And the truth is that on something like Israel Gaza, they're both, they both know what they think, then they know what the politics are.

23:05And I think you'd have just had five minutes where essentially it was just kind of filling time and afraid. They're not going to make a major announcement of foreign policy, of a change or a different strategy on a live TD debate about a domestic election. So, no, I don't have a problem with that. I think there could have been maybe something in relation to Britain's place in the world or the military or something like that, but no, I don't have a problem with them not doing Israel Gaza. There's a question just coming on seats and I think this is a really good question. Let's say for the sake of argument, you and I agree that Rishi Sunak is not going to win the selection.

23:44And I'm afraid he came onto that stage like somebody who knows who's lost the selection. It's a torture. I'm still not calling it. I'm still not calling it. But boy, is it a torture chain before? He knows that he's lost. We haven't really reminded people just how much has happened between the two debates. There's been the D. Dave Debat, because he's been betting on the date of the election and all this kind of day after day after day. So he's got to be and he's got far too much in his schedule. He's doing more constituency visits than any of the other leaders and he's just exhausted, ratty, angry.

24:25So then the question is, let's say I said to you, Alistair, okay, you're the big strategy boss. We've lost this election. We've got three weeks to go. We're going to turn this on his head. Our objective now is to minimise how many seats we lose. Is there a different strategy if you just thought, okay, we're going to try to hold on to I don't know seats with majorities over 10 ,000. We're going to try to make sure that we hold Ken Clark's old seat and Rushcliff. What can we do to stem the loss? Is there a different strategy for that? Well, there would be. And you have to wonder whether either delivery or accidentally they have started to go about that strategy.

25:09So walking past the news age in this morning, I saw the Daily Mail front page was soon act. Don't give labor a blank check. And then you had Grant Shaps, who's meant to be one of their better communicators on the radio this morning, talking about inventing this phrase, which I don't think we I don't even know what it means in the British context, but saying, you know, don't give labor a supermajority. In other words, you know, basically raising the prospect of a landslide. Now, I wonder if that is it could just be that they're kind of thinking out loud and they haven't really thought it through.