274. Sunak vs Starmer: The Final Showdown

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1:35Hello, Rory. Welcome to the RESTIS Politics with me, Alistair Campbell. And me, Rory Stewart. And who are you, Alistair? I'm fine. I'm fine. I survived the debate. I'm very, I'm in a very dark place. All the lights are on, but it's so dark. Where are you? I'm at home, but for some reason I've got lights on everywhere, but they're now what did you make of that? Well, I think it's, so I put out a tweet saying, Rishi Sunak can win this debate on debating points like it's a debating competition, but he's going to come across to people as though he's rude and patronizing. And I think that's about right.

2:14I think if this was a kind of technical high school debating competition, he won lots and lots of points, but the effect on people. I mean, it might, I don't know what works, but my, and I'd be interested in the comments, but my Twitter thread is full of people saying, yeah, that's probably right, but in fact, he comes across as rude, shalty, patronizing. Other people saying, Stammer did look quite weak and cow'd at bits, some people blaming Michelle who's saying, but it's an interesting problem. I mean, it's set up as though it's a formal debating competition, but what I, I suppose I want to start with, maybe it's just throwback should say, actually, does it really matter at the stage anyway?

2:58Is anything really going to change a result? It's hard to know. I don't think there was a there was a sort of moment where you thought, well, yeah, that's really going to change things, but I actually got in home just in time for the start because I've been out in the speaking to an event that a lot of business people, a lot of environmental people and what have you, I did our usual sort of who's going to be prime minister next week, and it was 100 % Keir Stammer. And I don't think that tonight changed. I thought, soon that was much, much more aggressive than he has been. I, you know, one of my thoughts I kept having was that if Keir Stammer becomes prime minister, I wonder if Rishi soon it might be a better leader of opposition than he than he is prime minister, but I think a lot of people watching that would have found he's so sort of techiend and he's got these lines.

3:46Now, there were certain lines that he was definitely, you know, we said in the first debate, he's definitely trying to land the thing about the 2000 pound of tax. I noticed he moved off that. He now talks about thousands of pounds of tax, but I think the things he was trying to land today was retirement tax. I think that was a the thing he kept trying to say. There is a clear choice. If he said that once, he said it a hundred times. And also this idea that Keir Stammer doesn't really know what he stands for, but I think that I think there were times when Keir did look a bit sort of, you know, lacking in energy and just wanted to shut, shut, soon I caught, but didn't want to play the same game of being rude.

4:20Where I thought Keir was strong though was on the much more empathetic stuff. I thought he was good on women. I thought he was, I thought it was interesting how the Reclier that I think there must have been some trans community people in that or certainly supporters of the trans community. You got a lot of support for being very kind of passionate and emotional about that, but I don't think it changed the fundamentals. So there was something interesting. When they came into the out of their cards, the BBC was showing Rishi Sunak looking very kind of sort of nervous, slightly hunched, spoke very briefly to the direct general BBC.

4:54Keir Stammer came in with a huge big start smile. There were lots of jokes. It's had some time to chat, walks in. But then I was so struck somehow that when he got on stage, that wasn't coming across. And you will have seen these articles recently in papers saying, I've just spent, you know, a couple of weeks traveling around with Keir Stammer. I really warmed him in private. He's terrific, but somehow this doesn't come across in public. There is something a bit interesting there. I really felt, gosh, you know, looking at him sort of unguarded outside, his is very kind of natural, relaxed, smiley person.

5:30And then when he's on stage, he becomes extremely kind of stiff. Is he just nervous? No, I don't think he loves the format. I think he was conscious, particularly after the first debate that Sunak was really going to try and rough him up. And he was determined not to make it a charity match. And I actually thought it was very, it was quite effective. The first really big clap line was when he said, maybe if you just, you know, Keir started to try and answer a question. Rishi Sunak started to interrupt him. And Keir was directing directly at the moment who asked the question, I think it was about benefits.

6:05And he said, you know, maybe if you listened a bit more to people instead of his cause to disruption, you wouldn't be so out of touch. Thereby showing up the rudeness, but also linking it to what we know is a big problem for Rishi Sunak, which is the out of touch thing. I think the other thing, Rishi Sunak, that could have caused, didn't it? That could have. It did. And I actually think the, what was a bit sad and weak about Rishi Sunak's performance, there were several points where it was obvious to me having written lots of clap lines in my time that he had clap lines that he was delivery, which just didn't work.

6:38Now, the one he kept trying, and this is, I think, is the one they're trying to land as a way to shaping up for the last week of their campaign, was this point you kept making about, do not surrender to Labour, do not surrender on illegal migration, on tax, on pensions and so on. I think that was them signaling that is going to be a big theme of the final week of the campaign, was I think for Labour, it was very much, we clear what we were saying, we're clear what we're going to do, or we're just going to carry on doing the same thing. I think your line on him being almost a leader of the opposition as a way of describing Rishi Sunak's performance is a good one.

7:15Essentially, his thing was to treat Kierstammer as the incumbent prime minister, and keep saying, you say you're going to be prime minister in a week's time, what are you going to do? I think the real line doesn't matter about the individual, but the line that basically keeps coming back is, well, I've told you what I'm going to do, what are you going to do? I've introduced you to this, but how are you going to stop? I suppose the undercurrent is to try to suggest that Kierstammer hasn't quite got a detailed plan on this stuff. Starmor, so you're supposed to break news, you gov pole on who won, Starmor 50, Sunak 50.

8:00I always try to think of these things about what happens when they go back to their various camps afterwards. I think Kierstammer will go back thinking he handled the aggression much better than the first time round. He also, I think, came over better and warmer. I think Rishi Sunak will go back and his team will say, look, we had certain points he wanted you to land and you did, but I agree with you, or first point, I think to somebody who's a floating voter, I think that just come over as God is just shouting out to me. It's also a question of whether our cultures changed because I think probably, I don't know, maybe 40, 50 years ago, you would really get a lot of marks for landing the debating points, being snappy, being succinct, but if you look down the thread here, we've got quite a lot of people saying Starmor looked really uncomfortable, painful to watch, etc.

8:59But we've also got a lot of people saying public school, privileged, patronizing. There's an association, both on the comment thread and on Twitter, with an idea that that particular skill that Rishi Sunak's got of being able to say, yeah, I've told you what I'm going to do, what are you going to do? What are you going to do? Actually, it comes across as private school rather than something you want in a Prime Minister. So, I mean, just ask the question, as the relationship between Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition has always been this sort of hostile and negative. No is the short answer, I think.

9:32There's obviously, let's be honest, Kirsta was trying to take Rishi Sunak's job, and it's one of the most high profile jobs in the world, and it's humiliating where you have it taken away from you. But I think it's interesting that, I think when Tony Blair bumps into John Major these days, I think they have perfectly nice, civil chats, and I think sometimes did when they were both in offices. Let's just give people a list of those, maybe you didn't. By the way, Roy, we're currently running at well over double what the Sun got for the, that's why Marie Cole hates us. I know, I know, yeah, yeah.

10:08Just to get, I think I took this accurately. Wait, wait, wait, sorry, can I just explain people the reference analysis made? Sorry. So, the previous leader's debate was streamed live on YouTube, and they got only 7 ,000 people watching it. What I was pointing out is that twice as many people are watching a commentary on a debate, and actually watch the same debate, which is slightly worrying world of virtual podcasts taking over the real thing. Yeah. Just to go through the questions, I think I took a note of them all. First question was about betting. We've talked about that. I think that went on a bit too long, to be honest.

10:41Well fair to work, disability, waiting list came up. Well, well, well first work, can I just interrupt you on that? Yeah, that's an interesting one. So, well, for the work, again, I don't know whether people, I was watching it with my mother, and all who's over from the States, and she was like, I don't get what this question's about. This is about the fact that since COVID, there have been 800 ,000 people who are no longer looking for work. And it's a really big conundrum because some of it is possibly long COVID, some of it may be health related. Some of it is people who have just chosen not to go back to work.

11:21So, there are two responses to this, and neither of them seem convincing. There's the Rishi Sunat response, which seems to be just, we need to be tougher, and we need to just say, if there's a job out there for you and you don't get it, we're going to force you into it. And the key of summer answer, which is, which he gave three times, which is, we have to cut NHS waiting lists. But it's a big issue, and one of the problems is nobody, none of the economists you talk, so you fully understand how it happened, why it happened. Very few other European countries have seen it, so we're really struggling to come up and answer it.

11:51How do you go? Yeah, so that came with that one for fair bit. The borders, issue of borders and immigration, very good question of a young man, where's the money coming from? Quite an aggressive question that got the loudest applause of all the questions, which is, are you two the best that this country can produce as the sort of choice? Which is - Well, that's sort of question with that, though. I mean, that was, wasn't really a question, was it, how they supposed to answer that? Well, I think, you see, again, we're just soon, I answered it by saying, well, this is what I've done. Keir's time would like, why I said, you know, well, I did this and I did this and I've changed the Labour Party.

12:24I think I would have answered that a little bit. Well, you know, if I, I think with Keir, he could have said, you know, well, you may not think I'm as charismatic as Boris Johnson, but I tell you, I'll be much better Prime Minister. You may not think I'm as interesting as Liz Truss, but I tell you, I'll be much better Prime Minister than that. And you may not think I'm kind of, you know, I don't know how he would describe what he's seen. So that's how I would have done it. So they had that one. Then they had bankrupt councils. Then they had women. And that's where single -state spaces came up.

12:50And I thought, I thought, Keir, I thought it was very, very strong on transit. That's where he maybe he found his stride a bit. So yeah. So my sense is the debate had broken the thirds. First third, a little bit stiff. Second third, I think, Rashisino was really landing blows. I mean, if this was like a boxing match, Starmel was really struggling. Last third, as things slowed down, as soon as it was interrupting less, Starmel was able to get stuff out. For people who didn't watch the debate, that was a particularly interesting. He said on transgender, look, I think that women only spaces should be there.

13:29He talked about his own past experience. And then he said, but I also think that all human beings should be treated with dignity and respect. And when he was challenged on the Equalities Act, of course, he turned around to Michel Hussein and said, no, it's in the act. And of course, at that point, nobody challenges that. That's the point where he pulls rank as a senior lawyer. And nobody's going to answer. And he also talked about the notes to the act as well. I mean, only lawyers will talk about the notes of the act. And I think I like, I also like when he, because Rashisino kept coming back about, sex, biological sex.

14:02And why won't you support me on this? And what have you? And he here's Starmel had this big thing about, I see the job leader bringing the country together rather than dividing it. And I think that does speak to people quite a lot. I was obviously, I'm sure you were very pleased that Brexit was finally raised in one of these. I didn't think either of their answers were very good on that. Yeah, question that was absolutely lovely. Oh, the vinyl records. They did say, ladies have will you mend our broken trading relationship with Europe? And it was such a great question. Obviously, none was proposing to do so.

14:35No, we're in lots of our Scottish listeners and Welsh listeners and viewers are pointing out that none of the Scotland Wales did not get a mention. I think that is a bit of a no -mission. Naomi keeps posting a message. And I felt this as well, nothing on mental health yet again. It is really alarming the way that mental health just fallen off the agenda. Somebody's just posted very disappointed climate change, wasn't that? Yeah, also, I think the protest outside was Palestine. And yet, Palestine didn't come up. I thought Michelle, who's saying did well, I think it's very, very difficult, particularly when you've got people who know that they're limited in time, they want to speak, they're trying to speak.

15:15I thought she kept it moving along pretty well. Charlie and Neil said that too. I mean, it's true that when Stumble was struggling, there were quite a lot of Labour supporters saying that she wasn't doing a good job. But I think she probably feels a little bit like I do, that given that he's almost certainly going to be the next Prime Minister, it's good to us these questions. Yeah, I thought she handled it fine. And it's not easy. It really isn't easy. I thought the audience was, it was interesting. They were clapping at points sometimes I didn't expect them to, and then at other times, I'll tell you what, I think there were a lot of don't know's in there.

15:54I think you can tell a lot from somebody's face. And I think there were a lot of people really not quite sure about both. And that was, and the other thing that gets me in some of these debates, I think these debates should go back always to what, particularly for the party of government, what did they promise at the last election? Nothing on social care, that was such a big thing at the last election. Yes, they did Brexit. But I thought on pensions, just show that he's quite a street fighter, because it's here, Starrman pointed out, they're very kind of technical way. Our policy is what your policy was until this campaign started.

16:32Right, right. So how come that policy is now terrible? Just because you've changed it during the campaign. But you did it a bit better. I think it's a really good point, but you did that a bit better by saying, well, if only Starrman had framed it in exactly those ways, probably in a bit more effective. I think it was a good point, but it didn't quite land. Imagine saying, I think what he said is, it's the same as it was in the last budget. That's a bit of a problem with him not quite being quick enough on his feet. Like, same as it was in the last budget, what he needed to say is, wait a second, we have literally signed up to your plan in your budget, and you've just changed your mind in the last two weeks.

17:12Yeah. Yeah.

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18:29From designing a website, to marketing, to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Hines and Allbirds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your site, turn your big business idea into sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify .com slash restylafer. I think there's a lot of comments coming in, essentially saying that, I mean, I'm summarizing, but given that Soonak is in the words of one of our viewers' toast, thinking that Kierstharmer should have done better against him. Lots of people are worried about my throat and my voice.

19:06Well, that's very kind. People are worried about my gilae. They think I'm too far. Yeah, the gilae. They think you're in run, you've stole it from in run cars, but that means you have to go into some prison. I'm extremely talented. There's James W. Rory cannot surely be in the UK with the gilae in the summer. He is in the UK. I know he's in the UK. No, so I think it was, I think it was okay. I, I, I, of course, you never know how long people stay with these things. Fiona was struggling at one point to kind of, you know, see it through to the end. I think that there's some of the messages I was getting through it.

19:39And it's fascinating. This has completely changed the nature of you. It's the same with sport and I, Rory, when you're watching football now, not if you're in the stadium, it's different, but if you're watching football on television now, you're following it on social, but you're watching it, you're following it on social media and you're talking to your mates on WhatsApp about it as well. And it's the same of these debates there. So I was trying to concentrate to make notes for our discussion. And you can get these messages saying, that was shit. And you know, you're totally right. You completely can't concentrate.

20:08You're exactly right. They're my ascending. What I think is a tweet. And then I realized that instead of saying, well, someone fixed the broken relationship with Europe. I've put bromide relationships with Europe. Meanwhile, I've missed the. No, it was. It was. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. When we said we talked on the main podcast about what might be in the Q &A that we put out earlier today, whether we thought these things would would endure. And this have brought our list as our order. This is one of them say, I'll ask to have you ever met any famous footballers. I'm not talking about Diego Marra bloody Donna on this thing.

20:43The other thing to say, by the way, I thought the Kier's point, Kier's time was point about investment from private sector. This event that I was at earlier, it was the Association of British sports. And it was really interesting because the Danish guy was the chief executive. And he was, he made this really, really quite impressive speech. It was all about, he essentially said, July the 5th cannot come soon enough because we are, we are going to have an opportunity to reset. Reset some of the challenges we're facing on trade, on the environment, on net zero. And we're going to have to do it with real genuine partnership with government, which they obviously feel has been lacking somewhere.

21:23And so, and I, it was interesting to, I asked them, Roy, I think you've done the same. I asked them, so I was speaking about six o 'clock. I asked the ratio of hands as to how many would watch the debate. Now this thing was at Somerset House that was drinks on the terrace afterwards. It was a very, very, very low number. It's unbelievable. I was saying that I did these big, um, these big events recently. I've been doing events with 1 ,200, 1 ,400 people in live, live audiences day after day for the last few weeks. And I keep asking the question, these are obviously people who are interested in politics.

21:55They wouldn't be turning up to, to these shows. And maybe 5 % of the audience are watching these debates. Now, that'll be very different with the US debate. And I'm really looking forward to getting into the US debate with this Trump -Biden debate, I think we'll be absolutely vital because it's doing something a bit different. In this case, we know that both of these people are reasonably bright, reasonably competent. We've seen them perform back and forth in Prime Minister's questions. And fundamentally, this is an election about booting out the Tories. And we know, oh, I know, you're still holding off knowing that Starmer's going to be next Prime Minister.

22:33But in America, when a debate happens, which is 50 -50, when both sides are suggesting the other person is actually not mentally competent, when people are going to be watching how Biden walks across the stage, I mean, the stakes then, it's like a kind of gladiatorial fight. I know. And also, it will be, I think you were telling me earlier that they're going to mute the mics when, so when Biden speaks, they mute Trump, when Trump speaks, they mute Biden. If interesting, whether Trump still feels that he's very rude and aggressive, Stick, is the right way to go. By the way, Rory, I took up your GB news.

23:11Oh, yeah, yeah. How was it? How was it? Well, I did it with Andrew Pearce. He was very polite. He allowed me to talk loads about my book. He had a little pop about me and John Major and Underpants. And I said to Underpants, I really don't think you want to be talking about men underpants. But they were perfectly nice and perfectly polite. I don't honestly haven't got a clue how many of you watch it. Didn't get much feedback from from from doing it. But no, the American debate is going to be mega, absolutely mega around, because it's around the world. I mean, I'd be very surprised. Would any foreign media have covered that debate tonight live?