292. Question Time: China’s army in Europe, Just Stop Oil behind bars, and Andrew Tate

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0:50Welcome to the Restus Politics Question Time with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Anastagammal. Anastagammal. Let me start you on Kenya, country that both for snow reasonably well. Josco are. There's been very little coverage in the UK of what's happening in Kenya currently. Do you think the Gen Z process have the power to change not just Kenya but all of Africa? Well, you're absolutely right. There's been very, very little coverage of it. And you often talk about the role that social media played in the uprisings that became known as the Arab Spring. And I wonder if behind the question is the possibility that social media can play a similar role in Africa?

1:31Because what's been really interesting about these protests in Kenya, which are about a finance bill, which are about putting people's taxes up, very unpopular tax plans. But what's happened is that protests have developed that don't appear to have any kind of political figure whatsoever. It's just groups of what are called Gen Z people. A lot of it fueled by TikTok. Now, sometimes we can look at TikTok and I often look at TikTok and worry about its implications for politics, particularly in the way that the hard right use it in some of the developed democracies. But what's happening here, I think, is that people are really learning that they have real power through protest.

2:12And on the social media thing, for example, one of the things they're doing is Ruto, President William Ruto, who obviously is the leader of the country and the one who's behind these tax changes. One of the effective kind of mini campaigns that's going on is this thing hashtag unfollow Ruto. So what he's doing is basically saying, there's the guy, he's got more followers than most people in Kenya. Let's take him off and show that we've got the real power. Now, the protests are becoming quite violent, quite a lot of people being injured, more and more young people losing to be taken to the streets.

2:43And it is an interesting development. Just to take it back a bit, I mean, the whole thing is really surprising. So William Ruto was in some ways the surprise winner of the 2022 general election because President Kenyatta, who was the kind of establishment figure and the son of the great founding president of Kenya, got behind his traditional rival, Rila Odinger. And it felt like a stitch up where the sort of governing president and the main opposition party got together. And in this context, William Ruto was seen as the kind of radical insertion and he won unexpectedly. And it felt at the time as though he'd won with a quite a lot of use vote.

3:24He was somebody, William Ruto makes a lot of his story as somebody who's come from a poor background, dragged himself up. He's a kind of grifter who works his way around the streets, started with a street saw, built a great fortune. And this has started to come right off the rails in very surprising ways. So people thought that William Ruto was going to be this sort of populist backed by young people coming in with quite radical views instead of which what happened as he got into office and facing the big debt that there isn't Kenya. He went down the kind of tetocratic austerity route and was convinced that what he was going to do was start sorting out finances, raising taxes.

4:04And this unleashed amazing stuff. So in June, just a month ago, when we were all caught up with the British election, I guess, and not paying any attention to anything in the world, a young Kenyan stormed the parliament. And you can see people with, you know, presidential security guards with submachine guns in the street tear gas, people being killed. And as you say, this amazing mobilization through social media and William Ruto has gone from being somebody who the international press at least was presenting as the voice of young in search and Kenya to being seen as the representative kind of old austerity establishment.

4:40And he fired almost everybody in his cabinet. He's had to reverse on all his tax changes. And this will also worry people because Kenya is one of the great beacons of Africa. It's the place with one of the most educated populations. It's the leader on tech. It's had one of the most steady and sustained economic growth. It's very, very dominant in sectors from agricultural exports to banking, somewhere the rest of Africa's looked at with envy. But his inability to try to balance the books, get debt under control, get the taxes up, will really trouble investors as well as being a reminder of the power of social media.

5:17I said earlier that lots of people have been injured, of course, I shouldn't make lots of people being killed as well. And I think I'm right in saying that for police officers are facing possible criminal charges for some of the shootings. Let's stay abroad. Brian O 'Carol, what's your thoughts on China having military drills in Belarus and what are the potential implications of this? Well, this is part of a much bigger story, which is really maybe the story of our whole generation. We're probably to find the next 10 years, which is are we getting into a cold war with China? And how much of a threat is China?

5:53I've just come from the US. And as I say, I've spent a lot of time with senior US policymakers. And what's so striking about it is the incredible bipartisan cross -party consensus that what they need to do is to confront China. And we've seen this in many different ways. We've seen this in the sanctions. So Trump is now going into an election in which he's talking about 60 % tariffs on all goods from China. We've seen this in congressional investigations into TikTok, which of course has strong Chinese ownership and control, and which many American politicians are presenting as an attempt for from the communist regime in China to undermine American elections.

6:38But we've seen it above all in the latest NATO meetings where there've been these very strong statements. China initially was very careful about getting too close to Russia and Belarus after the Ukraine invasions. And in fact, there were stories that very strong warnings from Biden and a red line from Biden kept them out from providing any support. But Biden didn't really follow through on those red lines. And over the last year or so, China has begun to supply more and more machinery equipment, which is quite useful for the Russian military base and NATO has come out. Criticizing them, raises the big question, of course, which is, will America be able to sustain a coalition against China?

7:19Or is the reality that the Chinese economy is so big? It's exports so large that Europe's going to be very reluctant to confront China and much of the rest of Asia, including Singapore, isn't going to want to get itself into a cold war with China every year. Just to explain what these exercises are, it's called Eagle Assault 2024. And I guess that it's coming on the back of the NATO summit. And two things going on, I'm sure you've mentioned before that American politicians now speak far more about Asia than they do about Europe. There is this sort of great interest now in the Asia Pacific region.

7:53Japan and South Korea were big participants of the NATO summit. And America made a big show of their relationship at that. And they're calling these, the Chinese are calling these 11 days of what they call anti -terrorism exercises. And they're taking place in a place called breast. And that is very, very close to Poland. And Belarus, of course, borders Ukraine and Ukraine also borders Poland. So this is, you know, of all the places to pick where you're going to go and do some anti -terrorism training. It's not entirely obvious why Belarus is the most obvious place. And so what it does signal is this further close, closeening of the relationship with Russia.

8:33And you've also had fairly recently meetings between Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus and Xi Jinping, the leader of China. So there's a pretty clear signal in this, which is NATO, you had your fund, you had your summit, you said all the things you had to say. And here we are right on your border training with one of your least favorite leaders on the planet. And some relevance to this to the UK because our friend George Robertson is now chairing along in fact with Fiona Hill, who we haven't viewed on on leading, a defense review. And he is positioning China. It seems in some of his rhetoric in a group with North Korea, Iran and Russia.

9:15And that's something that again in the US context is a dominant view. I'm a bit worried about this because I don't think China is like North Korea, Russia, and Iran. I think North Korea, Russia and Iran are spoilers who have a real interest in destabilizing the global system. China, I think still, despite the national's rhetoric, is a country with a real vested interest in stability because it's the world's largest exporter, it's the world's largest manufacturer. I see it as a status quo power. I think it needs to be continued to be contained and dealt with in relation to Taiwan. But I think it would be dangerous to push China into a group with Russia, North Korea and Iran.

10:00And I think we've got to be careful that this rhetoric about a new Cold War doesn't end up creating conflict where there might not have been conflict with the more cautious approach. No, you're right. The George Robertson review will be interesting. Fiona Hill, as you say, who we interviewed a while back is also on it. And the third member of the review, General Sir Richard Baronsu was the commander of the Joint Forces Command former deputy chief of the defence staff. So pretty heavyweight people. And as you say at a time when a point that both Rishisunak and Kierstheim were making during the general election, that the world is probably more dangerous than it's been for a very, very long time.

10:40Those are pretty hawkish figures. And we're likely to end up with a pretty pro -American defence review coming out of that. There were echo America's quite black and white view of the world. And the risk there is that it will put us a little bit at odds with Europe. Europe, I think, is so important at the moment. We forget the European economy combined with Britain is larger than the Chinese economy is still. And it's astonishing how little the US is currently talking about Europe and the UK, how important it should be to the West. And Europe, I think, has some hope. Partly because of its vulnerability, because Europe is dependent on the world for trade, depending on China for trade, dependent on America for security, dependent on Russia for energy.

11:19So Europe can't afford in the way that the US does to get into these very confrontational positions, because the US isn't dependent on that way. And one of the challenges for Kierstheim is going to be how is he going to navigate a defence review, which will probably be quite hawkish and aggressive, with European partners who will probably want a more moderate approach towards these things. Okay, now domestic, poor labor, have any politicians regain some respect in the UK following the election? Why you're thinking about that one? I'm going to raise you Rishi Sunak. Oh yes, yes. I mean, I guess presumably the way that he's behaved since the election.

11:57You know, his graciousness about Kierstheim taking over the contrast with the way that Donald Trump dealt with Joe Biden stepping down. I mean, many of the people I've seen the US have noticed it, praised it. And I think Rishi Sunak may just have got himself back into it. I asked you actually before the election, whether you thought he'd become a sort of national treasure like John Major over time. I don't think we should, let's not overdo it, or let's not overcook this particular cake. But I do think that he, both on the night election night and in his demeanor sense, which is getting a bit of stick from people like Bravaman, lots of talk of Bravaman defected to reform.

12:32And the funniest part, Rory, the bit they got the most laughter in the King's speech debate in Parliament, was when Suella Bravaman stood up and attacked the government for not getting rid of the two child benefit limit. So she's now apparently a great crusader for child poverty, which was news to everybody. No, I think Rishi Sunak has handled himself pretty well. And as you say, the contrast with others, particularly in America. Also, I don't even saw the footage in the French National Assembly of the left -wing MPs refusing to shake the hand of the guy they were meant to shake that with as they dropped in their part of their procedure for sort of entering the Parliament because he was there as part of the far right.

13:12It will share the clip in the show notes, but I thought that was a very interesting clip, that French Parliament clip, because it's completely polarizing. I think for the left, everyone's like, great, look at this fantastic clip, but then refusing to shake the hands, the right -wing politician. My guess is, and I interest whether you agree, that if you're a right -wing viewer of that, you see this as completely disgusting and a sense of an establishment stitch up and people refusing to follow constitutional procedure and just being impolite, so it'll just make the right feel more sort of vindicated, victimized and persecuted.

13:42Well, yeah, but maybe we should come back to France next week. I wouldn't underestimate just how the polarisation goes beyond the politicians right now. I think you're right. I think people want to relate politicians who they can then leave to get on with the job, but it was quite dramatic. In the poor guy, he did hold his hand out every single time, and they snubbed him every single time, including one guy who pretended to be playing that funny game with scissors and rocks. Yeah, and I think the guy holding his hand out, that the right -wing politician holding his hand out, also as conscious that he will be seen by his supporters as trying to be civil and being rebuffed again and again.

14:18I suppose the other person who's sort of had a real shift since the election is Kierstama, whose ratings have gone pretty high. He's had a rise in 20 % of his approval ratings. Now, that is because of the the new nurse, the fresh nurse and etc. But as we keep saying, that can erode pretty quickly unless you deliver. Helene Hill, can you provide an update on what's happening in Iran should sanctions be applied? Short one for me here, and actually we're interested to hear some of the criticism that I think felt that we got after we covered the new president. I was so struck in the US that along with the focus on China, so much of the Republican Democrat establishment has convinced themselves that they need to go after Iran.

14:59There was a lot of talk about how we need to chop off the head of the hydra that all these proxy militia groups, his balar, in Lebanon, the militia groups in Serenah, Iraq, the Houthi and Yemen, even Hamas, which is supported by Iran, can be dealt with by being much, much more aggressive towards Iran. And of course, this is a line that has been sold, particularly by the government in Israel for a very long time. But again, I'm worried, I think, seems very dangerous because I don't believe that the only reason that Hamas exists is because of Iranian support and that we need to think yes about continuing to contain and confront Iran, but we also need to get back on track when the Middle East peace process does no shortcut to securing the Middle East just by going after Iran.

15:41So the push -out we got recently when we talked about the election of the new Iranian president, Masoud Pazishkian. Brilliant, brilliantly pronounced. What people were saying to us, particularly people who were in the opposition, is that we were buying in too much to the idea that this guy was going to represent some sort of change, even though we put in all the caveats about where the real power lay, that he would be sort of part of a team struggling for power within a pretty chaotic structure, but very, very firmly run from the top by the Iodolla, that actually what the turnout showed, particularly in the first ballot, and also what this guy represents, there is still far more opposition than there is support.

16:23And I think they felt that we were echoing a mistake by the West for one of a better phrase, that we were accepting that this was a change when in fact it was just the latest tactical shift by the regime. Well, it's a tough break, isn't it? And the truth is that since the revolution, there has been such passionate optimism and hope by the Iranian opposition, and year in, year out, a belief that this illegitimate cruel, oppressive regime is going to be toppled, and they've been absolutely right for more than 40 years that the regime does not represent the majority of the Iranian people, and that there is a much more progressive liberal Iran buried under the surface here that could come to light.

17:09But I'm afraid the truth is that since 1979 the opposition have always underestimated the tenacity of the regime, and probably underestimated the extent to which it still has strong support, particularly in conservative rural areas. And I think the West needs to be a little bit careful, particularly as the rhetoric is ramping up from Israel against Iran, in believing that somehow there is an easy way of somehow toppling the regime. I mean, Iran is under profound sanctions. The U .S. government has been trying to topple the Iranian regime almost continuously since 1979 without success, and I don't want to sound too eorey about this, but I think the opposition will all tribute to them.

17:49But this is part of a pattern of campaigning, which sadly hasn't really worked out so far.

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19:10Alisa, question for you, Derek Grion. What do you think will happen next in Hungary with Orban? Now that Ukraine has closed its oil pipeline supplying it, are there still ways for him to wiggle out of a possible fuel crisis? Now I don't know the answer to that one, but I do know that one of the reasons Orban is big time in the news yet again. And let's remind people that this is a relatively small country, but very significant because Orban is right out there on the populist nationalist right, very Trumpian, very close to Trump, and is, you know, frankly got pretty bad relations with a lot of his European Union colleagues.

19:46And now they, you know, you remember from the days when we were in the European Union, Rory and U .R. Minister, the rotating presidency, where one of the member states has the presidency of the European Union currently hungry, and they've just been stripped of the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defense ministers because of their stance over the war in Ukraine. And this has been announced by Borrel, who's the European Union sort of senior perform policy figure, so that we have to have a send a signal even if it's a symbolic signal. Orban has to call this incredibly childish, but I guess it's, it underlines how difficult it is, once you've got a member state, and that member state is pushing as far as they can, as close as they can to the borders of legitimate argument and legitimate debate, legitimate differences of opinion.

20:34But I've often won a GeFor Hofstadt, who we spoke to on leading a well back, the former Belgian Prime Minister. He's been going on for ages. When are we going to face up to the threat that Orban represents to European values? But this looks like, you know, a step in that direction. Yeah, and I think watching this question on oil is really important. We talk a lot about sanctions on Russia, but of course, hungry is one of those countries, along with Austria and Greece, that remains very dependent on Russian gas. And the European Union is still, despite all these talk about sanctions, still funneling billions of euros every year to the Russian X -Shaka, which is helping to finance the war to keep our energy going.

21:13Can I maybe finish with one that interests me? And I don't really have an answer to, and it's a bit dangerous to ask a question that I don't really know the answer to, but Aaron, what do you think about the just stop oil sentences? So five supporters, the just stop oil protests received five four -year sentences, longer sentences, ever given in the UK for non -violent protest. So what's your instinctive sense on that politically, legally, morally? Well, my instinctive reaction when I heard it was that is ridiculous. You know, we talk a lot about, and there's a big debate going on about the prisons at the moment because we're having to let lots of people out early because of prison capacity.

21:53And I understand why people get really, really fed up at protests, which disrupt their efforts to get their parents to hospital, their kids to school, although frankly, I think every should water school. So I understand the anger that there is, but this was people who were planning protests. And I hope that one of the things that Labour made signals early on is that whilst they accept that people get frustrated by protest, that the right to protest has got to be fundamental part of our democracy. So my instinct is really against it. Yeah, I mean, it does, you know, without a sounding too sort of cliché liberal on this, they've literally been given these sentences, very long sentences, for plotting something over a Zoom call.

22:36What they were plotting to do, I think, is to climb over onto the M25 and stop people driving up the M25. Now, I remember obviously this comes from the context of both conservative and Labour politicians going out in Kierstama was doing this too. Pretty liberal sayings. We can't have these people shutting down our things they need to be dealt with and presumably the judge is responding to those kind of legislation, but it is worrying. And it's worrying because it will also have huge implications in other countries where climate and environmental protesters could find themselves in real trouble from authoritarian regimes locking them up, then being able to point to Britain and saying, well, if Britain's giving people, you know, five -year sentences for going on a Zoom call talking about stopping people driving down the M25, you know, that I think this is is pretty sad.

23:19And it would be nice to see, particularly, as I used to say, in the context of overcrowding in presence, but also some more liberal comments coming out of the Labour government on this. Now, my last question from Jamie Good, how concerned should Labour be with the rise of young men being radicalised by online influencers? Is this further evidence of a need for a men's minister? I'm not sure about the need for a men's minister because I think the consequences of what Jamie's question is about are actually often it is the impact upon women and the protection of women and girls. There was a report this week from the National Police Chiefs Council, which talked about this issue of extreme misogyny being a national emergency.

24:01And we're back to our old friend maybe we should have raised this one with Nick Clegg as well when we spoke to him back to our friend social media. As you know, Rory, particularly my new books out, I go into schools a lot. I can't remember the last time I went into a secondary school without the name of Andrew Tate coming up. Now, Andrew Tate would no doubt love to hear that. Just sorry for this, there's just given us a sense of some people when I've heard of Andrew Tate. Well, I suspect most of our listeners will have heard of Andrew Tate. He's a British American influencer. He's somebody who describes himself as misogynist and he was the professional kickboxer, is that right?

24:34Yeah, but you know, back to the wretched reality TV as well. He really became famous because he was on Big Brother in 2016. He's currently awaiting trial and remain year, he was a rape, human trafficking and forming a criminal gang for sexual exploitation of women. These are charges which he denies. But what he does is this thing we've talked about before about how to use it social media effectively. He makes people laugh at stuff that is really not funny. And he's got nine million followers or something on Twitter on the back of this, is that right? Yeah, and a lot of these are kids in school.