294. Labour’s defining moment and the next Tory leader

24:43So what they're going to think is we're going to produce two candidates, finally. And the party members, these sort of 120 ,000 party members who are older and more right -wing, the general population, will then have the choice of which to go with. And MPs are very, very anxious about their jobs, they're very anxious about getting the shadowed cabinet. So if they think one of these candidates is more likely to win with the members and therefore more likely to be leader, they will have a tendency to want to make nice with her early. That was basically the Boris Johnson phenomenon. How can you explain the fact that all these MPs thought that he was dishonest and incompetent and not good at his job, but they went for him?

25:20Well, it was because they thought the party members would go for him massively. But none of these people are that far out in the way that he was. No. So it's entirely possible that you could have a David Davis situation here. You could have somebody who has constantly been written up as the favourite who gets pulled in. I think first thing is it's a long race. It's very interesting. They've changed it to this final fourth thing, which actually would have been very helpful in previous races, which is it means it gives a few weeks for the country. You'd have got that. Exactly. Exactly. That's a purely self -interest that all these analyses.

25:52Let's just look at these candidates for a second. So, can we baton? Very likable. I mean, it's always very polite to everybody right across the party. One -on -one, one -on -one, she's very charming. But she was seen as deeply disloyal within Rishi -Sunei's cabinet. And there was a lot of reason against it. Exactly. And Rishi -Sunei, as cabinet, his lie -less would say that she wasn't competent. And she's very much the person who leans into culture wars. It's where she gets out on the front step, tries to pick culture war fights. Pretty Patel, I'm afraid. Again, very polite all the time to me.

26:30And I feel very mean putting the boot in. And actually, it's a theme, even with Liz Trust. Liz Trust was always very polite to everybody. Michael Gove always very polite to everybody. They're not people who ever make any efforts to make enemies with MPs. They're always scrupulously polite and charming to people from all parts of the party. But I just thought pretty Patel, I'm afraid, was the most hopeless section of state. I saw her as my boss in Diffid. I worked with her close -seed. She did not seem to me to have the mind to allow her to really master her brief, manage civil servants correctly.

27:04I think she's a charming media performer, but I'd be very worried to have her as primalster. If you'd listen to her talk, her speeches of a very, very eccentric. Although Liz Trust made it without being able to give up public speech. So who knows? And pretty Patel is a sort of, I think, a sort of Liz Trust -esque figure. Mel Stride is somebody who I've always liked. He is very much a loyalist. He's understated. He's quiet. He's good at his job. He's, I think, a good minister manages civil servants well. So in so far as I'm always trying to sell the David Gaute model, Mel Stride is probably the closest to the David Gaute model amongst these candidates.

27:40The question is, can a more introverted, hard -working, serious performer make it through and be reassuring? I think it'd be really encouraging if he did. I think it'd be an interesting thing to see. But he may not quite have the charisma. James Clevley, I think James is by far probably, along with Tom Tuganhart, one of the best media performers amongst this group. He's a good at taking risks. He can be funny. He often gets himself in trouble. I think he's likeable. He did a good job as home secretary. He's been liked as far as actually the diplomats have really got behind him. He tried to rule himself out of the race some months ago.

28:20I'm pleased to see he's back in because I think he could be a very interesting thing for the conservative party. The criticisms of in my suppose are that he's not a sort of gov -like intellect. He's not that kind of manager, but he's somebody who delegates well. He sees the big picture. He may be more of a willy white law figure for real political nerds. Tom Tuganhart, really interesting. I mean, Tom Tuganhart, I was just with some German politicians over a last weekend, who are very fond of him because Tom has made a real effort when he was chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee to make links in Europe.

28:55He speaks fluent French. He's married to a French woman. He has very good links with Germans, Spanish, European politicians. I've always noticed when I get here that people talk about Tom Tuganhart there much more than they do in Britain. He's somebody who was in Afghanistan and Iraq. He was very close to General Richards, who made him a colonel before anti -punament before that he was a journalist. He was very much seen as being on the remain one nation side of the conservative party. He is very good at cultivating journalists, which is a real asset in modern politics. He's getting a little right wing for me, but he'd probably be quite pleased to hear me say that because I don't think the thing he wants is somebody like me.

29:37I mean, I think it's very noticeable actually that these are candidates who calculate that people like me and the side of the conservative party I represent feels like the past for them. But is that his way? He's not a risk. What I thought when I heard him make this sort of I thought rather lame and opportunistic shift on the European Convention of Human Rights. I thought surely he's the one who could have carved out a position of his own, which is the only place from where you can show I think real leadership, where he actually says, I'm not going to be the same as all the rest. Well, this is interesting.

30:08I mean, I think this is, I mean, he sort of gently encouraged me to run in 2019. And I think his, I may be ventriloquizing for it. I think his reading of my run is I went too far in the direction of, you know, being against tax cuts, being too passionately in favour of the customs union and that you have to be more realistic if you're trying to win Tory members. So, you know, I've been disappointed that he didn't come along with me and support a customs union. He's very much wounded out. I'm very sad about the ECHR because that was something European Convention of Human Rights was created, signed to do with the European Union.

30:44It was created by conservatives. And it was something that we were very proud of as spreading rights and democracy through Europe. And I'm sad to see that our pro -Europeans doing this, but I guess he thinks you've got to probably, I don't know, I mean, he would obviously say he passionately believes he's positioned to do also things you've got to be pragmatic to win. Rob Jenric's the one that surprises me most because Rob Jenric has managed to establish himself as a contender over the last few months despite never running a government department. It's very unusual and despite not having been in Parliament very long, so I don't quite understand what's happened there.

31:18He's made a name for himself on immigration, isn't he? That's what he's done. Because he was the junior minister in the Home Office responsible for immigration and he was saying that we should be more radical about the Rwandan scene. Yeah. Anyway, it would be very, very interesting. We shall see. Let's just take a quick break. Absolutely. Let's take a break.

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32:49Welcome back to the rest of this politics with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Anastak Campbell. And did you get much feedback on Nick Clegg Park too, Rory? I got really good feedback on Nick Clegg. Of course, people on my side of the austerity debate are very pleased to see that he's so sort of unapologetic about the spending cuts and all that kind of stuff in 2010. People who are wrong love it when they can be wrong together, they love that. Exactly. And I presume on your side, there's everyone being like, why don't you give them a harder time? You let them get away with this austerity stuff. The best piece of feedback was from Miriam Gonzalez Durantes, who said, I think you saw as you posted on Instagram, this is totally unfair.

33:29Why did you give him two episodes and I only had one? And I said it was because he needed twice as long to be as half as good as she is. That's good. So there we are. I'm really pleased. I'm really pleased we got to do that. And I think really worth listening to because he's a major figure now in the world of tech. And he was deputy prime minister. And I think he took the Lib Dems to the most extraordinary victory. I mean, as he points out, they got more votes in 2010 than Rishi Sunek just managed with the Conservatives in the late election. So incredible. So really worth doing. Now, Alisa, I really want to get you on the Olympics because in this double act, you were very much the sports person.

34:09In the double act, you were very much the Frank Aphone. And in this double act, you were very much the person who's currently speaking to me from France. So tell us about the Olympics and what do you think? And then we might get a bit into the history of politics and Olympics and how it's worked. But give us a sense of how the Olympics looks to you and is going at the moment from your immediate vantage point. Did you watch the opening ceremony? I did watch the opening ceremony. In fact, you and I were were what's happening back and forth a little bit during the opening ceremony. There was a period during the first bit when I was I really was beginning to think that we needed to resurrect the Tory party campaign slogan stop the boats.

34:45There was just there was too much of that boat thing. As is the session. Sasha who was watching it with me pointed this out to me because we were in Paris a week ago and we took a boat down the sand and he pointed out they are unbelievably slow. I mean, to get from the Eiffel Tower to Notre Dame, you know, took us nearly an hour and he was like, what is going on? And every time we tune back in, we'd occasionally go away because the children would just be like, this is ridiculous. And we'd come back in and we'd get to Bhutan or just reach Chile. I mean, it was just sort of the alphabet was moving very, very slowly.

35:19Yeah, it was it was listen, the whole thing was was made for TV. Once the rain started pouring down, I really felt quite badly for those people who were just sitting there watching it because unless there were massive screens everywhere, which I couldn't see in the TV footage, then how on earth were you supposed to follow all these amazing pre filmed films, which I jumping from the pre filmed to the live was also for it because a pre filmed film, you think, well, why am I watching that? I'm trying to watch something live. Why am I watching something all the time? But one of the best things of London 2012 was the Queen walking around James Bond.

36:01And then jumping out of helicopter. That was beautiful. But that was as far as I know, the only bit wasn't it and it was right at the beginning. Whereas in this one, they kept cutting in and out. So I got very confused. Am I watching this live? It's a something pre filmed and generally you could tell by the weather, couldn't you? Yeah, there was a bit of the weather thing. But I will listen, once we got through all the countries being done, I thought the last hour was absolutely magnificent. I thought once they got to the Eiffel Tower light show, it was amazing. I loved that. And I do know the bit that because I'm a very I'm very emotional when it comes to sport or in the bit that got me was the guy in his wheelchair who was the oldest surviving French Olympic medalist.

36:39Was he their 100 year old cyclist? And he handed the flame the torch to the two who were the judo guy and the athlete, Mary Jo Pérek, who went up and lit the thing. And the flame itself was just utterly magnificent. And it's now hanging over Paris. It was amazing. So anyway, listen, the other thing is Celine Dion, what did you also love? She was fantastic. She was unbelievable. I mean, there's a woman who's got some incurable disease, hasn't been able to perform for years. And she sang that. I mean, I felt, you know what, literally just before she started singing, I was literally about to tweet why are we having a piaf in the background but without a voice?

37:24And then along comes Celine Dion. It was wonderful. So by the end of it, I loved it, the first three hours could have been truncated a bit. But what you do because every country has to have its moment in the sun. And we're going to talk about politics, Roy, the political moment, the only political issue that really two political issues arose. And when I was glad to see that Donald Trump Jr and the National Front, the last Somalum National attacked it because of what they call the sort of anti -Christian element of the, you know, satirizing the last supper, which is utter nonsense. They completely misunderstood what it was about.

37:56So we don't need to worry about them. The other political moment was when they got the wrong career. That's something to be avoided. That is to be avoided. And Willie Bach, who is the, shows you how political they are, Willie Bach, who is the head of the Olympics, the IOC, he actually had a meeting with the South Korean president to apologize for the fact that they mistook North and South Korea. There was a worse example of that in London, 2012, by the way. I don't even know this, Roy, because you probably weren't following sport quite as closely as you now do with my indoctrination. But there was in the football in London, 2012, there was a game played at Hamden Park in Glasgow, where South Korea were playing, but they played the North Korean national anthem.

38:37So that was even worse because that's forcing people. That's forcing it to be done, listen to your mortal enemies, national anthem. So that was, that was a bit tricky. But listen, it's going in France, it's going unbelievably well. They're winning quite a few medals. Just go back to this phenomenon though. So this was set up, the Olympics by a guy called Pierre de Koubertan, who's a French baron in the late, late 1800s. And he was really excited and inspired by the ancient Olympic games that, that happened in Greece and that ran for an incredibly long period from about 700 BC through to about 200 AD.

39:11And he was a Frenchman who was absolutely obsessed, unlike you, Alistair, with British private schools. He loved the fact that kind of British boarding schools produced these kind of muscular Christians. That's what he loved. No, Rory, I am obsessed with British private school. I share the obsession. It's just that I think they should be shot. Anyway, what he thought is that he could set up a games which would celebrate these kind of amazing Anglo -Saxon virtues of sportsmanship and healthy robust people. Getting out, he thought the French spent too much time studying books and not enough time being healthy and robust.

39:51And it was really a kind of slightly, well, like anything that you set up, initially, very difficult to be certain he could get it off the ground. Like the praise for this man, I mean, imagine if you were right, suddenly decided to try come up something of this scale. He did everything he could. He got a lot of very famous celebrities to endorse him. But the first two or three Olympics were a bit touch and go because it turned out, of course, they were unbelievably expensive. Lots of countries couldn't be bothered to turn up. The only way he could finance ministry was by tying them to these world exhibitions or world fairs and a slightly embarrassing way.

40:27So number three was in Lewis in Missouri for their world fair. And they insisted on stretching it out over about nine months. And it was completely unclear to most competitors whether they'd even won an Olympic medal or some other kind of medal called a World Fair. Some of them died without ever being aware they'd won an Olympic gold medal. And so, and he, of course, had problems. He was pretty opposed to women's participation. And this continued to be a theme right where through the 1940s, they were happy for women to do things like fencing, but they didn't want them to do things like shot putting.

41:01There was a long tradition through to the 30s where there was also awards for literary achievement at the Olympic Games. And town planning, you could get a gold medal in a Olympic town. I think I think I think Brynn Mons got a medal in town planning. Very good. Now, then we come into the modern day. And I guess the Olympics that we all remember are, I suppose, 1972, which was the Munich Olympics with the massacre of Israeli athletes. 1988, Ben Johnson doping, a 2002 sort like city, bribery, 2016, Rio corruption. And a sense, I think that the Olympics, this is my challenge to you where I'm going to sort of hand back to you.

41:42Though I don't think about the Olympics, there's not quite keeping up with the change in the world. We often talk about the fact that back in the 1970s, the G7 were 70 % of the world economy. And now the bricks are about the same size. So Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the Olympics is not quite showing that change. So despite the fact that we weren't sore like city Athens, China got it in 2008, which you would have thought was the beginning of the new world of shifting away from the West. But it was then London 2012, Rio 2016, I guess, which is more bricks, but then Japan 2020 Paris 2024, US Los Angeles 2028, and Australia 2032.

42:19I mean, this is even worse than the permanent security council, isn't it? Well, a London Paris and next time Los Angeles will be the three cities that have had it three times. And it is such a big thing. I mean, look, when you look at the programme for the Olympic Games, I was just reading through it last night, when you look through the programme to pack this much into two weeks is absolutely extraordinary and very, very, very few cities can do it effectively. You're right, though, about the way that it's grown. The way it's grown is absolutely phenomenal. My favourite political story, I must tell you, Rory, goes back to Athens 1906.

42:56This was generated by the name of Peter O 'Connor. And that was the second second Athens Olympic. Second Athens, right? And this is a guy called Peter O 'Connor. He was Irish, but he gets to Athens and discovers that because Ireland doesn't have its own Olympic committee, he's not so allowed to represent Ireland. So this guy is still part of Great Britain, right? Yes, he's likely. Exactly. But he's not. He doesn't consider that, Rory. You know the history of this, don't you? You know, there's a deep history to this. So he's basically, so he's just for listless. Wait, wait, wait, wait, I just want to put, but before he tells the story, just for listless, in context, this is a good 16 years before Irish independence.

43:35So this is somebody who passionately believes in Irish independence, but it's a time when Ireland is fully part of the United Kingdom. So he is having to compete in the UK team and he's supposed to be wearing UK colours and blah, blah, blah. And he does. He does, he does, because the only way he can compete is to represent Great Britain. He does compete. And in his first event, he wins a silver medal. During the winners ceremony where they're presenting the medals, he removes from his kit an Irish flag and such a great athlete is he climbs the flag pole and he waves the Irish flag. And that is the wonderful way to celebrate.

44:15Amazing. He shins, shins 20 feet up in the air, doesn't he? Correct. And the Brits, of course, were absolutely furious, but it was an amazing propaganda for Irish independence. And he then went on to win a gold where he stayed, he just took the medal and went home after that. I'm not sure you're right about the way that they reflect things. So Antwerp 1920, lots of countries were banned from taking part because of the outcome of the First World War, Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, they weren't allowed there. Soviet Union decided not to bother. The most famous political one probably is 1936 with this engine about the Olympic process.

44:53So Berlin, you mentioned that Australia is going to get them in 2032, whatever it is. Berlin was chosen in 1931 to reach the 1936 games. 1933 comes around and the Nazis are in power. And the efforts that the IOC had to go to to stop them using it even more than they did. Even so, lots of countries boycotted because of what the Nazis then represented, 49 countries attended. The IOC did insist, by the way, that there had to be at least one Jewish athlete on the German team. And somebody called Helena Meyer, we represent them as fencing, in fencing. And of course, Hitler's massive propaganda efforts were defeated really by Jesse Owens because he won four gold medals and he was black.

45:39And that being a black athlete, he was the most successful athlete in the games meant that it wasn't, you know, you can hardly say this is all about Aryan superiority. I think also before we get too smug about this, I believe it's true that FDR rose out the great American hero refused to receive Jesse Owens and shake his hand in the White House after he came back that racism was so embedded in American society as well. Wow, really? I didn't know that. German society at the time, yeah. Then you got the war. Here's one already, London 1948. That was the first athlete to defect from communism was a Czech gymnast by the name of Marie Provasnikova.

46:21She defected during London. Melbourne 1956, lots of boycotts. Mexico 1968, there was the, you know, you had the black power protests there. But the other thing that happened there, and here's a really interesting question. Do you think the Mexican army killed over 200 protesters and injured over a thousand when there was a protest in advance of the games about the student staged a protest because they didn't like the funding because it had led to social programs being cut. 200 protesters got killed. Do you think in a modern day, if an Olympic city killed 200 protesters shortly before the games that those games would go ahead?

47:03I'm not so sure. I'm not sure. I didn't know. But of course, remember, there were these huge questions around what Beijing tried to do to get ready for 2008 and all the attempts to hide a lot of the abuses and things. I mean, there's a book that I've been reading about the way that power and politics plays into all these Olympics. My favorite guy just to finish is Jim Thorpe, who's this amazing American athlete from the 1912 Stockholm Olympics. The absolute perfect, all -rounder, extraordinary native American who was a star football player, baseball player, who managed to win gold in both the pentathlon and the decathlon, and then had his medals stripped because he'd managed to take a small amount of money for, I think, an exhibition basketball match.

47:46And was therefore considered not an amateur. Not an amateur. And finally, God has medals back. His family got back in 1988 after he died. You say he was a native American? Native American, yeah. So I think politics can, a lot of the games, there are big political issues playing. I mean, obviously the Moscow boycott by America and then the Russians didn't go to Los Angeles and all that sort of thing. But if you look at Sydney, Sydney 2000, and Australia, massive sporting country. So Kathy Freeman was chosen to light the Olympic flame in Sydney. And that was a huge moment. And essentially, you sensed it was Australia trying to reconcile its history.

48:25And then, you know, 10 days later, she wins a gold medal in the 400 meters. And yet, 20 odd years later, they have the referendum on the voice. And you understand sometimes sport can sort of give you that sense of forward momentum, but it doesn't necessarily, doesn't necessarily last. And I think from our own games, the last time we had them in 2012, I do think it was the last time the country really felt kind of powerful and united. And I sort of feel the lot of that has dissipated. And partly, I think it's because we didn't necessarily cement the sporting legacy. Of course, the other thing was you mentioned with all about politics is that the Paralympic Games, which come a couple of weeks after the Olympic Games themselves, is that what the Paralympic Games have done to change attitudes and change policies around the world in relation to disability is absolutely brilliant.

49:13So anybody who says politics and sport don't make, sometimes they mix together very, very well. Let's finish on Bangladesh. So often in the podcast, we will introduce people to a country and an election. And then we won't necessarily follow up on what happens next. So to remind people, Bangladesh was a country that broke away from Pakistan in the 1970s, was famously described as a development basket case, one of poorest countries in the world, horrible flooding, went through periods of military rule and coup, became a democracy in the 1990s. And there was proper, peaceful exchange of government back and forth between the two main parties.

49:51Until 15 years ago, Sheikh Hasina, who runs the Awami League and who's the daughter of the great independence hero of Bangladesh, took over, female head of state, secular Muslim, been good at balancing India and China, taken millions out of poverty. There was a moment when the Bangladesh economy looked like it was, it was delivering GDP per capita better than India, amazing progress, the garment industry. But as we pointed out, has become more and more authoritarian. So 20 ,000 members of the opposition facing court cases and an election, which was boycotted by the opposition, which Sheikh Hasina walked, bringing her in effectively now as an authoritarian ruler, democracy is finished in this very large country, very important country, Bangladesh, and now over to you on what's happened recently.

50:34Yeah, I mean, the reason we're talking about it is because there have been these big protests that have been going on in recent weeks over job quotas, essentially that there was preferential treatment government imposed quotas, given to people that they've protest to say, essentially, is a scam to give jobs to people in who've supported their supported party. And it led to a lot of violence, 193 people killed, several police officers among them. And the UN Human Rights Chief, I call Volkerturk, he has been protesting as loudly as he can and been asking for great transparency about what's happened to a lot of people who've gone missing.

51:11The protests have subsided a little bit after the Supreme Court scrapped the quotas. Now, is that a sign of protest working, or is that a sign of protest that actually has failed because ultimately, you know, the protests have happened, but 193 people killed. And of course, this followed the election, as you say, where she won, yet another term with a very, very low turnout, because as you say, the opposition had boycotted it, over a thousand people injured last week. And another thing that Tuhaq has been asking for is to demand why people would deny medical care to journalists killed. So, you know, pretty horrific set of circumstances.

51:50She then made a visit, Shea Kucena made a visit to some of the people who have been affected by this, and she was filmed crying. So, what her critics were saying was that the tears were all because of a big piece of infrastructure that come crashing down in the riots, as opposed to the fact that they're all these people dead. On the parliament after the election Roy, the biggest, you talked about the independence that are in the UK parliament. The current opposition secured only 11 out of the 300 parliamentary seats, whereas independent candidate secured 63 seats. So, I mean, it's just, you just feel, as you said earlier, a country that felt like it was going in a pretty good direction democratically, now in a pretty bad way.

52:27Yeah. And the eighth most popular country in the world, so if countries, you know, if the G8 were done on population, Bangladesh should be right up there, 160 million people. And it's going to be an increasingly important security and economic player in the world. So, I think something we should keep coming back to, because it's right there as perhaps the kind of most dramatic symbol of countries that seemed in the 90s to be going in a positive democratic direction, have lurged back to authoritarianism, rulers trying to hold on by delivering economic benefits to people, and now facing inflation, cost living problems, unemployment problems, can they hold on?

53:06And of course, in some places, Iran, for example, my goodness, they can hold on. They can hold on for decades, but definitely worth coming back to Bangladesh. Thank you for raising it. And we should also close off, maybe a little bit, because we discussed last week Venezuela, Venezuela where the opinion poll suggested that Maduro was going to lose and hey, how the elections have happened and his friends at the electoral authorities announced that he's won, which reminded me of a situation at the elections in Bangladesh when Al Jazeera, they had seen a dashboard on the headquarters of the electoral commission suggesting that turnout was 28%, and then lo and behold, a bit later, it was up to 40%, and likewise, I suspect within what's going on in Venezuela, it's very, very hard to imagine.

53:52Nobody outside the Venezuelan ruling party seems to be believing the outcome of the election there. Yeah, and there's a quite a good New York Times article, which you can share, but there are a dozen different ways in which Maduro stole the vote. Some of them, just to do, were not handing out ballot papers in the right place, someone to do with controls and media. I mean, it isn't all about stuffing ballots. If you get into the mechanics of how people steal elections, there are lots of sort of cunning ways of tipping things in your direction, but a tragedy for Venezuela because it looks like, for the moment, another six years in Maduro, which just brings me to a small tribute to my friend, James C.

54:28Scott, who you would have loved. He was a Yale political scientist who began his working life as a pretty radical anthropologist in Malaysia. He wrote a book that we've recommended on the podcast called Seeing Like a State with a subtitle, How Certain Schemes To Improve The Human Condition Have Failed. Looking at kind of crazy ideas of central government from ground nuts and towns near to Prussian forestry. He's a beautiful funny writer. I was lucky enough to be able to infume on my BBC series on ignorance just before he died. He lived in an amazing farm driving a really crap -toupled tractor on the outskirts of Canoica.

55:09And it's a huge loss to anthropology and political science. Brave, funny, provocative, so very sad that he's gone. And thank you, for joining us today. See you soon. See you. Bye -bye.