297. Far-right chaos, Harris’ running mate, and Bangladesh’s power vacuum

25:55And of course, what's been revealed in the last week is that there is still much more support for this than is expected. Now, one other thing I just wanted to say, it's very common in these things for sociologists and academics to study and they will, I absolutely guarantee, be coming back in six months time saying we've all misunderstood these rights. They will have done investigation and we will have got the demographics wrong and the sociology wrong and the motivations wrong. Because the fundamental question of who the people are in these crowds isn't being answered very sensitively or accurately.

26:30There seem to be broadly speaking four types of people, far -right taxivists, genuine far -right fascists. Secondly, men and its largely men looking for a fight. Yeah, who often on drugs and drink? Right. Thirdly, some local people, including some elderly women who you can see in the shots who are concerned about immigration and cost of living, and fourthly, a group of spectators and teenagers on holiday challenging the police. And there's sometimes it's a kind of lamsphere. Sometimes people are bringing along their children and encouraging their children to shut bricks at the police. Give me a sense of your sense of these crowds and whether those four types of people represent who you think are there.

27:08Well, I think there's a fifth person that's important, in fact, probably more important than all of them, and they are the ones who are not there, but who are promoting helping to organize and fueling. And you mentioned one of them who's been vastly important in Cyprus. I would actually, I'm afraid, I'd put something like musking there right now. I'm not saying they do it deliberately, he's probably never heard of Southport, doesn't care about Southport. But so, what I think you're seeing I mean, you mentioned football who are in the organism. And when you look at the list of riots through British history, a lot of them have been related to football who are in the organism.

27:43I actually think that one of the factors here is that, as you said earlier, people who just want to have a fight, the fighting around football has, you know, the police over time, it's taking them a long time, but over time, they've done a pretty good job at controlling violence related to football, football, banning orders, pretty effective policing on match days. You know, I'm always amazed when I go to see it, to watching Burnley away from, away from home. How many sort of police and, they're from Burnley at away games, who basically know everybody. And so they know when somebody who's not meant to be there is there, and they just tip off the other police and say, look, that guy's on a banning order, get him out.

28:23So they've sort of got that word out. And the other thing, the media keeps saying, angry protesters storm hotel angry protesters attack mosque. I've got to say quite a lot of the time they look really happy because as you say they're kind of it's almost like they're having a day out and it's just a giving them the chance to have violence and they've got the cameras there. Often if you look at photographs many many of them are filming themselves. They're enjoying putting it on social media themselves. Listen, there is also a technical point about public order policing. There was quite a good short letter on the Times yesterday which will share on their feet from a police officer who was part of the response to the killing of PC Blakelock and the development of two particular things in policing, which the British police learned back in the day, which is keeping a proper gap between the police and the crowd.

29:07And secondly, putting the decision making down to lower levels of command, so allowing people on the ground to make more rapid decisions. So I think there's a bit of relearning some of the lessons of crowd control, just some technical bits of policing. I think the other interesting thing I've seen in reading what some of the police are saying and talking to some of the police is that amid the debate that we were having earlier about social media and the inevitable course to ban social media and so forth which is probably impossible, but even if you tried to sort of use that to a straight term one police guy was telling me that look and then think about social media that is where at the moment we are getting most of our useful information from both in terms of the organization and the terms of investigation after the event.

29:51So I think for example what will be happening now is that these thugs will be going out causing mayhem attacking property attacking people and sometimes you're looking at the television and people who think why aren't the police just charging in? Well part of the reason the police aren't charging in is they're just working out who's doing this and then a couple of days later they'll quietly go knock on the door, they'll read them their rights and hopefully take them in. You I just wanted to worth talking about here, Starmer's sort of handling of this. Because, I mean, let's be absolutely frank about this.

30:23If ever he's had a honeymoon, it certainly ended because this is a horrific, horrible set of events to have to deal with. But it is interesting, he was DPP. Director of Public Prosecution, so he was the guy in charge of prosecutors and people during the 2011 riots, yeah. And interestingly, before all this happened, I was reading an interview, he gave some time back about how that was handled at the time, where he said actually that the thing that was most effective in bringing things under control. Until now, by the way, that is defined as the worst English riot when you go right back through them, because it did lead to people dying.

30:59I think it led to 3 ,000 arrests, something like 2 ,000 people ended up in court and convicted. And so, about what they did was to have 24 or 7 courts, bringing people into court very, very quickly. you have to get, and he was involved because you have to get the court system to agree to do that, to agree that the new measures would be needed. And he said the thing that sort of brought the thing under control was the people who were thinking about going out and causing trouble, suddenly seeing on the news that it was no longer they were seeing people having a bit of a laugh throwing bits of wood and setting fire to hotels, they were seeing people go to jail for quite a long time.

31:34The UNI, both have pretty strong views about sentencing, but on this I have gotten no down that deterrence will actually come from long sentences from the first people who are jail for this. I think that's right. I think this is a really good example of what we're actually called to the judge. I think in the Brixton riots talked about exemplary sentencing. This one of the reasons why it still remain cross about the five -year sentences given to the stop oil protesters because it sets completely the wrong bar and the relationship between what these people are doing. Trying to burn people alive in a hotel is a completely different level of violence and requires a much stronger response.

32:09I think we may also want at some point to think a little bit about the way in which Kierstarma has been communicating. I mean, it's a very sensitive subject to the moment because I think it's the most difficult thing imaginable. But I do think that Kierstarma is probably learning things about political communication in crisis, which are going to be important to him. And I thought the video that he put out a couple of days ago now, which is the one that Elon Musk challenged, where he's looking away from the camera, doesn't quite work, he needs to find the moment to really look the camera and the eye address people directly, feel like he's really taking control, rather than sounding like he's doing a press briefing as a senior official.

32:47He needs to find his inner statesmen. That's interesting because I, the one I saw, he's done several now, there's one I thought that was the most effective was where he did a quite a short two minutes maybe, which was pretty much direct to camera, and then he took two questions. It might be the same one, and in the questions and I noticed that he does this and it's very hard not to do this. He does seem to respond directly to the questioner. I've got to say I think his communications have been fine on this. I think the messaging has been fine and listen the poor guy is probably absolutely sourced.

33:17He comes through an electric campaign. You take over, you have these massive events you've got to chair, you've got the King's speech, you've got to you know, schlep out of the Olympics, I hope you're serenely. You come back, your kids are probably screaming at you to come on holiday and he's suddenly having to deal with this sort of crisis, which, you know, genuinely has the feel of the crisis and the making. So I think his communication has been fine. But as it goes on, then what has to happen? This thing has to be quelled pretty quickly and then any changes that after you made after you made, and ultimately we all have to move on.

33:48Because what's happened in the past, Rory? I can remember, you know, there were riots when Tony Blair was primalist, to one of the members was in Burnley. And it is sometimes remarkable how quickly they flare up and how quickly they go away. Often I agree with you say it's to do with the weather. I say, you can guarantee every policeman in the country at the moment is wishing to God. We love cricketers out there hoping it stays sunny. They're all hoping to God it, peace down with rain. But I think the most important thing is that, as you call it, summary sentencing of people who've been caught, people who have admitted to committing this crime.

34:24and that they go to jail and they are seen to do so. The other thing I want to say, Rory, somebody alerted me to, it's like, why do you go and read back the terrorism act that you guys bought it in 2000? So I did. And the terrorism act 2000, it's been updated several times since to take account of international terrorism in particular. And also a race. But again, I said the definition of riot. So the terrorism act, this is the covering page of it. and it applies F. A, it involves serious violence against a person. B, involves serious damage to property. C, endangers a person's life, other than that of the person committing the action.

35:02D, creates a serious risk to the health or safety of the public or a section of the public, or E, is designed seriously into fear with or seriously disrupt an electronic system. And all, if this is within the use or threat designed to influence the government or intimidate the public or a section of the public. Now, I would argue that an awful lot of those people who have been seeing an ITV screens would need a pretty good lawyer to explain why that doesn't cover them. This is a form of terrorism. And so one of the really interesting questions, I think, well, there's two things that strikes me.

35:39One of them is, of course, real horror that these things, which are basically pogroms are happening. I mean, it's like something out of late 19th century Russia. An atrocity happens. There are immediately rumors flying around. In the case of late 19th century Russia, they would all decide the Jews were responsible and go and try and burn down a synagogue. And in this case, an atrocity happens. Everybody decides and was some sort of responsible and go and try and burn down mosques. It's very weird. I mean, it's the sort of thing that you wouldn't be very surprised to find happening in many of the parts of the world where I served aboard.

36:09But in Britain, it really is really shocking. Yeah, Rory, they also, as you said earlier, burn down a lot. library, which is a thing that exists to help educate people. I'm trying to burn down and attack a citizen's advice bureau, which exists to give legal and other support about how to sort out your problems to people who can't afford lawyers and the like. Then the other thing that's so striking, of course, is something that's more difficult to talk about, which is the instinctive sympathy towards these crowds and the defence of these crowds coming from many apparently moderate people. And you find it in odd spaces.

36:47I was talking to a friend who rides horses and his Facebook spaces of people who ride horses of full of people being sympathetic towards the writers. When I challenged Elon Musk, it was really striking how quickly, probably I think thousands of people started taking the sides of the writers and challenging me and blaming me personally. In a sum of it's just sort of straightforward saying, you know, Elon Musk is a living genius, but But people are getting a thousand likes saying it's cheerleaders for multiculturalism like you, Rory, who's responsible for this problem, etc. And belief this is the very, very profound Islamophobia.

37:22I mean, we've talked about this. That people claim that it's anti -Islam and it's not racism. This was a deliberate move of Nick Griffin, the BMP leader in 2008. He managed to say, I'm a moderate and I'm going to make the fascist movement in Britain be not against people's skin colour but against Islam. This became part of the sort of philosophy of fascism in the late 2000s. And my goodness, this is an example of this. I mean, it could not be more extreme. And you're seeing very, very sadly a real sense that a lot of people in Britain appear not to like Muslims. And this seems to be much less true in London, less true in Scotland.

37:58But a lot of the North of England, this seems to be kind of really profound problems being expressed, which then leads me to my final point, which is to pay a bit of tribute to Morgan McSweeney. and the work that he did in barking. And there's been a great article by Tom McTay about this. Can you tell us a little bit about Morgan McSweeney before I talk about what he did trying to deal with the BNP in barking? Well, he's been sort of Keir Starmer's right hand man strategy wise since before Keir Starmer kind of became Keir Starmer as we know today and helping him to become the leader of the Labour Party have the strategy that he pursued in relation to taking a very hard line against Corbinism for one to the better phrase, responsible for the strategy that led to what turned out to be a very, very successful election campaign.

38:45And as you say, Irish, but made his name politically, or cut his teeth politically in the UK, in fighting the hard right in the East and London. So he came into a situation where the BNP was dominant there and likened Blackburn and Bolton. and he decided to try to tackle the daily problems that people were facing and demonstrate that the state, the government could really help them. And one of his most dramatic things he did as the local councilor was to get the local councils to begin tidying up the gardens and billing the tidying up to landlords. And focusing on small policies, showing the sake of work, addressing things like loss of car parks, dealing with the largest housing estate in Europe.

39:26And by the end of his time, the BNP, right, the far right had lost every single seat in the council. So Morgan McSweeney's efforts to really deal with practical problems in these communities led to labour taking over the whole council. So it's a really good example of practical work addressing local needs and really turning around the politics. But Roy, the reason why that figures on the hard right are often very reluctant to act to get actual political power is because I can't think of a single instance where they've got actual political power and it has led to the improvement of people's lives.

40:02That's why they tried, by most of them, state they exist outside of the mainstream politics. And it's been interesting to watch Farage since he actually finally became an MP. He clearly can't stand being in Parliament. He's not the main attraction. He's not a big cheese in there. So he still has to make all the noise outside. And then if you go one extreme further to the Tommy Robinson's, although I thought I to say Chris Patton's line that Nigel Farage is Tommy Robinson in a Kravata. I thought that was pretty effective piece of communication by an old stager. But then you've got sort of even further outside, they're all terrible.

40:36They're all the same. They're all not fighting for you. You've got to let people like me fight for you. There is something else going on about, we talked earlier about who these people are, what they believe. And if you go and look at what's happening in America, the thing that's driving a lot of people there, and I think there's a And the very strong elements of this within what's happening in Britain now as well, is this whole thing about the great replacement theory. The reason why some of these people are willing to go up against a policeman and hit that policeman in the face knowing that they're on camera, knowing that they're probably going to get their call of felt very, very soon thereafter and get banged up for a while is because they think they're part of this massive fight because they are being replaced by non -white people.

41:23And once you've fed a kind of an ideology as poisons as that, that is what leads to the kind of sense of hate. So they don't look at a Muslim or a black person and say, oh, let's try and integrate. They think these people are being sent here or they're arriving in boats or it might be to replace us. It's why in America, Roy, why do you think they feel so strongly? it could be that they're about to have a president who's not only a woman but a black woman. And if you're one of these men who feels that you're being, quote, replaced, and the reason why I think this has come up now, back to the politics, you know, this is the rest of the politics, back to the politics of this.

42:02I think that for the last few years, the reason why it's been maybe harder, or these people haven't felt the need to operate as they've been operating in recent days, is because they kind of have felt the government has been their government. They have had a government that's been banging on the whole time about immigrants. They have had a government that's been saying, let's spend 700 million pounds on this ridiculous scheme to Rwanda. They have been able to say, well, you know, at least they agree with me that immigrants are a bad thing. And do you know the thing I found the most offent, well, there's been a lot that's been offensive in upsetting this week.

42:38But it was in Sunderland where Filipino nurses were having bricks thrown at them as they arrived for work in NHS Hospital. Where later in the day, no doubt, they would be looking after people who had been perhaps hit by a police truncional, whatever it might be. So I just think that sometimes you've got to call stuff out for what it is. I'm glad that you call this out for what it is. It is like Islamophobia. But we need to keep coming back to this because I think it's a huge issue and I definitely think there's no comfortable answer to this. I mean, Britain is becoming a much, much more diverse society.

43:14So at the moment 14 % of the UK's population were born outside the UK. But in 2022, 30 % of all live births in England and Wales were to mothers born outside the UK. And in London, it's 66 .5%. So there is absolutely no doubt that this is a very, very rapidly changing population, as we've said, one and a half million people have come in in the last two years. So the question of how governments, as much as the Labour Government or Conservative Government, deal with the issue of immigration, communities, integration is going to be absolutely central. And I don't think it can just get into a cultural war.

43:51I think part of Kier Sam's response yes has to be challenging fascism, yes has to be the more complex weenie stuff. You know, demonstrating the state can really work for communities. And yes, it involves a very clear immigration policy, which was certainly the way in which this issue was dealt in the center. Totally. And that's why, so for example, one of the reasons why these hotels have become such a target, I would argue, is that because while there was all this focus on Rwanda, there was insufficient processing done of people who were trying to get into our country. And therefore, people were just arriving and then they get put into hotels and that they sit there in a community that starts to feel resentful, feel angry.

44:28So I'm not saying there doesn't have to be proper processing around immigration controls. I'm not saying that there are massive social and economic challenges facing the country. But at this stage of this immigration debate, I think we've got to call this stuff out for what it is, which is absolute outright criminal, thuggery. And I for one hope that quite a lot of these people end up in jail. I hope that a lot of these media people stop being platformed in the way that they are. I hope if you politicians learn a few lessons from what's gone on. And I do wish the government well in trying to deal with this because as problems go shortly after you've got into power.

45:09This is big. Let's just end on something positive. In virtually every place where these thugs have been out on the streets, the next day there have been greater numbers out clearing up the streets and they are the best of Britain. They of course and our wonderful Olympians. Let's take a break now.

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47:42Welcome back to the rest of politics with Miror Ejjut. and me, Ashtamble, and very pleased to see that our interview with David Frum on leading went straight to the top of the charts. I thought it was very, well I was very moved by what he said about his daughter, he lost his daughter not long ago, but also I thought he had some very, very insightful observations. He reminded me a bit of you actually Roy, because he's basically a conservative, but he kind of feels lost with what has happened to the Republican party. Much more right wing than me, Alistair. No, no, no, it's not a wrong wing, but I know it's more right when you do, but I feel that he's his relationship with the Republican Party, which is bizarre anyway, because he's a Canadian, but he has worked in American politics.

48:26It felt to me a little bit like you was with the Conservative Party. Yeah, one of the things I thought was so interesting is that he's one of the few people we've had on recently who's tried to make a real defense for free trade and markets, which is very traditional right wing possession, which both the right and the left across the world have completely completely given up on because they've all gone. They've all gone industrial strategy and protection. Honestly, Bangladesh, so we've done a lot on Bangladesh, and I think we're right to have done a lot on Bangladesh. It's the eighth largest population in the world, third largest Muslim country in the world.

48:58And if people want more, we can refer them in the notes back to some of the early explainers we did on the fascinating history of Bangladesh. But here's this country that emerged through a war with Pakistan. It was part of an integrated country, Pakistan. got its independence in the 1970s, broke away from Pakistan, was dominated by these two main political families, as we came into the 1990s, of which the latest ruler, who's dominated the country for 15 years, Sheikh Haseena, was the daughter of the founding independence hero of the country. It's a country that went from being described, famous as the basket case, the world, you know, development people looked it in the 1970s as something just stuck in poverty that was never going to emerge into a country which has had consistent growth rates of 7 % a year over the last 15 years, half of the population of the country has been taken out of poverty since 2010.

49:51It's a country which now does 40 billion pounds a year of garment, ready -made garment exports. There's been expansion of massive bridges. I mean, last time I was in Dakar there seemed to be cranes and building everywhere. Private universities exploding, but this very authoritarian ruler, very authoritarian ruler, who was associated with disappearances, human rights abuses, very unpleasant police militia units, took us into an election, which we covered, of which over to you to tell us a reminder a bit about the election that happened, and then take us to where we are today. Well, unsurprisingly, as you want it, not least because the opposition boycoated it, and then post -election, the sort of thing that tipped it from a, kind of, of a very unpopular government that people felt unfairly announced itself as the victims of yet another election.

50:41They brought in this thing where they were giving preferential treatment in the job market to relatives of those who had fought in the 1971 War of Independence from Pakistan, which, you know, it kind of sounds, well why wouldn't you want to support people who fought in the war in independence against Pakistan? But of course, what it was really about was giving preferential treatment to people who were more likely to be supportive of the Obama League she leads. That then led to protests. And it is hard to, when we talk about protests in the context of what we've just spent a long time talking about in relation to the UK, these are people who are literally risking their lives by going out on the streets to protest and many of whom have been killed in recent weeks.

51:29So the death toll mounts and you think the protests are going to stop, but the protests keep going on. And so now she's fled the country. So this is an example of people power, if you like, protest working in the extent that a leader who is incredibly strong within the country has fled that country with her sister. They've gone to India. Be very interesting to see whether they stay there because she has very close relations with Narendra Modi, but could become a problem. Modi will have to build relations with her successor. And Alice, just the, I'm always fascinated by this because my first posting as a British diplomat was in Indonesia where General Suhato, who'd been the dictator for 32 years, was toppled in 1998 by these huge demonstrations.

52:12And I remember it was, they went on for weeks and weeks and weeks. And there were three possibilities. One was that the demonstrations were going to quickly disappear and he'd continue in rule for many years. The second was that he was going to eventually give up. And the third was he was going to fight to the last bullet like some dictator up in the mountains trying to hold out to the last moment. And the dynamics these things are so difficult. So in Bangladesh, it was very difficult and it tributed to you. I mean, you, you know, got us focused on this two, three weeks ago. But I don't think anyone could have been confident three weeks ago that these demonstrations were going to lead to Shaker's scene of fleeing the country.

52:49So no, on the country. So how do you get from demonstrations initially in the University of Dukka in the capital city, spreading to other private universities, mostly students, Chittagon, Silet, and then it spills over into rural areas. So then you get people concerned, not just about the quota system, but about cost living, corruption. Then you get the opposition political party beginning to move the self forward. And then the question on how the government responds. If they respond too softly, they get swept out. But if they respond too harshly, they get swept out. So in this case, she responded very harshly.

53:22So you had people literally being photographed on social media standing in front of the police with their arms spread wide, being shot in the chest and killed. A national curfew, so everybody was locked up in their houses. The internet went down for nearly two weeks to try to prevent people moving messages back and forth on social media, became more and more brutal, the abductions and the responses. But instead of quelling the problem, this seems to have just spilled it forward and onwards. And what was the final thing that led her to flee? And at some point we'll find out, but often in this case it'll be somebody like the military coming to her and saying, we just don't think we can do this anymore, we just can't keep shooting it anymore.

53:58Well, and also amongst the deaths, there were a lot of deaths, but amongst the deaths, quite a lot of police officers who were being killed in pretty brutal way. And I think you're right that at some point it is those forces, military forces, security forces, they start to think think this is not going to end well. But the honest answer is Rory, you just don't know do you because this could have gone the other way. It's entirely possible these protests could have been quelled by the action that she took. But this is why sometimes you just have to, if you're on the side of the argument that these students were, you kind of do just have to keep going.

54:35The reason why we should admire them in a way is because it takes incredible courage to do that when you know that so many people who've done it before have literally lost their lives. And so I think it's just a tipping point where they start to fear for their own safety and they fear for their own safety because the force of protest is getting too close for comfort in terms of the security that's surrounding them. And that's when they start to put in the phone calls and say, hey, Nurendra, I'm in a real spot of body here. If I jump in an helicopter, can I land it when you put me up in a nice place for a while?

55:08There is some talk that she wants to move to London. And pretty soon there'll be obviously criminal cases against me. And you'll remember that what happens often is that these people are, yeah, exactly. Money's moved around. So Robert Mugabeans in Barbue remained under sort of house arrest in Mugabe. Idiar Mean, of course, went to Saudi Arabia where he was given asylum, Pakistani politicians, escaped court cases to London. But it's going to be very interesting. And actually there is a, your MP, I believe, Tudip Sadiq, as a labour MP, is in fact Sheikh Hasena's niece. So it's an amazing political dynasty.

55:40She's the daughter of Sheikh Sina, who was the sister, who was on the helicopter with her. When her father, the first president, was toppled in a coup d 'état, all of the family were effectively wiped out, apart from Sheikh Sina, her children and her sister. And from that, has emerged this new political dynasty, which is now, it would seem at an end. But I think the diplomacy that follows these fallen autocrats is very, very interesting, because she's close to Modi, when Modi won the election recently, she was the first state visit afterwards. They visited 10 times in the last 12 months. And if she comes to London, or if she doesn't come to London, that'll be because there's this guy, Terry Graman, who is the kind of main opposition leader.

56:23He's already in London. He's been being the opposition leader from London. So it's going to be fascinating. It is amazing. And you can also see how quickly people's reputation changes. I mean, she was known as somebody who was meant to be a sort of very county political operator who was very effective at managing the party, led great discipline, provided stability and economic growth. But as soon as things went wrong, the other narrative emerges that she's 76 years old, that she's out of touch, that she wasn't sympathizing with the deaths of the demonstrators, that she was sounding blase, that she was stuck in a palace too far away from the people.

56:59So your repetition flips very quickly. Well, lovely to talk to, and let's catch up for question time. See you soon.