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Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics - Episode 317: How to Save the NHS
Podcast Title: The Rest Is Politics Episode Title: 317. How to save the NHS Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Episode Overview In this episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart delve into pressing issues surrounding the UK National Health Service (NHS), the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the potential for regulating social media for children. The discussion highlights the challenges and proposed reforms for the NHS, the dynamics of international support for Ukraine, and the implications of social media policies in Australia.
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Key Topics Discussed
- Reforming the NHS
- Current State of the NHS:
- Lord Darzi's rapid turnaround review for the NHS indicates a critical situation with approximately 7.8 million procedures currently delayed.
- Statistics reveal severe issues such as 12-hour wait times in emergency rooms and resource shortages.
- Recommendations:
- Darzi emphasizes the need for substantial capital investment, citing a £13 billion backlog in repairs.
- A shift from hospital-centered care to community healthcare is proposed to improve patient outcomes.
- Challenges to Reform:
- Campbell and Stewart discuss the historical context of NHS reforms and the political difficulties faced by previous administrations.
- The conversation stresses the necessity of reform while navigating public sentiment and the resistance faced in communities over hospital closures.
- International Support for Ukraine
- Military Aid and Strategy:
- The episode addresses the request by Ukrainian President Zelensky for Storm Shadow missiles, which could strike deeper into Russian territory, potentially impacting the war's dynamics.
- The hosts discuss the implications of the US's cautious stance on military support, influenced by logistics and concerns about escalating tensions with Russia.
- Geopolitical Dynamics:
- The involvement of Iran and North Korea in supporting Russia raises alarms about the broader implications for international security.
- The analysis reflects on the delicate balance of providing support to Ukraine while avoiding direct confrontation with Russia.
- Social Media Regulation for Children
- Australian Legislative Initiatives:
- The conversation introduces the proposal from Peter Malinauskas, Premier of South Australia, to ban social media access for children under 14.
- The hosts examine the varying perspectives on social media's impact, discussing safety concerns versus the benefits of social interaction and information access for young users.
- Debate on Regulatory Approaches:
- The episode outlines three main stances:
- Absolute bans on children's access.
- Minimal age requirements with controlled content.
- Balanced discussions about user freedoms versus protections against harmful content.
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Key Takeaways
- NHS in Crisis: The NHS is facing significant challenges that require substantial investment and a strategic shift in care delivery models.
- Ukraine's Strategic Needs: Support for Ukraine remains critical as the nation navigates military challenges and international relations.
- Social Media and Youth: The debate surrounding children's access to social media highlights the complexity of regulations intended to safeguard against harm while allowing for beneficial engagement.
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Conclusion The episode emphasizes the interconnectedness of health policy, international relations, and social media governance. Campbell and Stewart's discussions provide valuable insights into the current political landscape in the UK and beyond, advocating for thoughtful and effective reforms in each area discussed.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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0:50Welcome to the Restus Politics with me and Mr. Campbell. And with me, Rory's shut and we're standing not actually that bizarrely, it's about to explain on the top of the O2. So if you hear strange noise, helicopters playing, so it's right next to London City Airport, I'm trying to deal with the legacies in my vertigo. But the reason why we're here at Aster is because when we do ourrestuspolitics tour, the final culminating venue is this one, the O2. Weird that we're going to be there. Pretty weird. But we are also going to be joined by the presenters of our sister podcast in the United States, Anthony Scaramucci and Catee Kay.
1:23And not only are they coming here to the O2, they will be joining us in Glasgow, in Cardiff and in Manchester. So that's all very exciting. That's why we're here at the dome. Very exciting. And I think I can confidently say probably the largest live audience ever for a podcast in the UK. I just also, yeah. Anyway, tell us a little bit about the O2 and the history of this because very associated, isn't it, with Labour, with Tony Blair, with Alex the Campbell, with Peter Manelson? What's your memory of it? Well, the whole is a very interesting example of the dome of how sometimes outgoing governments can work pretty well with incoming governments.
1:55In fact, over there we can see the whole kind of Olympic thing. And that's another example where one government goes out and another government comes in. The dome was very much the brain child of Michael Hezaltine under John Major. And what was this idea? The idea was that a sort of very kind of wasted piece of land should become this amazing celebration of the new millennium. And am I right in saying that a lot of this is about the Crystal Palace and Exhibitions in the 1950s. The idea is there's going to be this regeneration comes through some amazing building, huge project, millions of people will turn up, because you remember where I live in South Ken, the natural history museum, science museum, always built from the money from the tickets of people coming to see that exhibition at the Crystal Palace.
2:38Well, that's it was about saying at the turn of the century a new millennium showing a confident picture of Britain about our history and also about our future. And Michael Hezaltine, I think, realized that the writing was on the wall that they were not going to win the 1997 election. And that for all the money that they were going out to sort of to build this thing, they needed the commitment of the Labour Party at the same time. So one of those memorable meetings, you know, Michael Hezaltine coming in and saying, if you guys don't sign this office, it's not going to happen. We were in opposition.
3:06And it almost was like saying, you know, this is a bit like being government. So then it happened. And of course, it was a very difficult decision. Most of the cabinet didn't want to do it. Correct. What's the retrospect? Well, I don't know when you stand here now, Roy. We talked about we talked about John Major, the National Lottery, the success of the Paralympics. Like us, he takes many, many forms. Yeah. It takes a strange route. This just look around now. This is pretty amazing. Yeah, be honest. I'm not saying it's just like this. This is lovely, but this cost literally hundreds of millions of pounds.
3:36And so there's got a catastrophic financial investment. And if we look at it at the time, if it's a rather kind of sad because New Labor came in, they did have a, you had a vision of New Britain. Yeah. We got excited, cool, Britannia, all that kind of stuff. Yeah, I wish we were. And when Tony Blair turned up, and I'm telling me we were all very excited. But then when it came to this, you didn't deliver anything like Downey Boyle at the Olympics, which is presumably what you were hoping to deliver. Well, Downey Boyle at the Olympics was 12 years later. And listen, if you were to say to me, which was the better event, the opening ceremony of London 2012, or the night of the millennium celebrations here, I'm giving it to Daddy Boyle by a very large budget.
4:12And what went wrong? Why weren't you able to do a Danny Boyle style event? Well, because he was all set on this building, because it was, it was a project with a very, very clear deadline, midnight, turn of the century. And it was very, very hard to put together something that everybody was going to go, wow, this is amazing. Like they did with Danny Boyle. And also the politics of it were very difficult. There wasn't that much enthusiasm. It took a lot of drive from the top, Tony Blair, Peter Mandel, as you say, was involved. Charlie Foughton was involved. And my rate, Peter Mandelson was in charge.
4:42Then he had to resign. And then Charlie Foughton was put in charge as a successor. Charlie was in charge on the night. And Charlie, I regret to say, Charlie, who I loved dearly, but is one of the few times I've ever really, really lost my temper was on the night when we were getting, I was the media guy getting inundated with text messages from journalists, and not just kind of, you know, lobby guys, but editors, owners who were stuck at Straff at railway station. And they couldn't get here because of the sort of chaos of the transport arrangements. And I remember this sort of, I was Charlie always says that by ears, we had absolutely purple as I was raging at this.
5:18So then we, of course, midnight comes along. And the Queen's here. And the Queen's here. I can, her prince, Philip was here, Ponce's Anne was here. There were lots of royals here. Tony and Jerry standing alongside the Queen. And I was watching on Telly like most of the rest of the country. I was sitting a couple of rows behind the Queen, frankly feeling a bit sick. My phone literally at mid -life still go with people. I can't get in. What the fuck is going on? You were feeling slow. You were feeling sick because this was meant to be a really great media moment. And the transport had all got screwed up.
5:48So you knew all the journalists were going to be pissed off right in a negative way, absolutely. Because they all been stuck at the train station. And I'm also back to the Danny Boyle point. I mean, look, Mick Hucknaull is a great singer. And the cause are a great band. But it sort of, it didn't feel that it had that kind of absolutely mega historic moment. I'll never forget William Hague, who was then lead for the Conservative party. I think he was sitting in the road behind me. I was with Fiona and our kids. And at one point, as I'm looking around at these empty seats where the Beger would, to be honest, I'm looking around the Queen looking, to be absolutely frank, quite grumpy about the whole thing.
6:19I wonder what the hell is going on. And I look around and saw it was William Hague. So I was like, hello, he said, it's going very well. And then the whole thing about, you know, holding hands and all Langzai and Shari loves belting out a song. So she's belting it out. Tode is looking a little bit sort of, you know, nervous. But what we knew and what we said, we then all got on a boat and went back down the river, back down to Westminster. And on the boat, I can remember saying to Tony, wasn't great, was it? No, they're not looking like this. Are they? And from that moment, the media basically tried to kill the whole thing.
6:53I came to see it. I remember wambling around in this building. And I thought this is going to be exactly. It was kind of a good thing. It was a bit, I mean, for people who didn't see it at the time, there was, I think there was who we are and what we do. Yeah. And there was a sort of special black out of film. Yeah. But it was pretty lame. I mean, who we are in what we do is pretty empty. I wondered, I bought a ticket. Yeah. I appeared at stuff. I thought I was going to see some really cool technology. I just found to me the maybe a vision of the future robots or something, which I guess was the great exhibition in the in the 19th century, Victoria Great Expression was all the wonders the world technology devices products.
7:35Well, I got to know, I came several times during the building. Unless, beyond as the building is pretty amazing. I'm I'm sure about the building. Really? It's a big, it's, what is it's like 12 towers because there are 12. 12 miles to the end. 12, 12, 15. 52 meters high because there are 52 weeks. 52 meters high. And it's on Greenwich Mean Time. Fantastic. So yeah. No, listen, I've got to realize I went to it several times. And I can't remember that much. But Rory, I always had at the back of my mind that one day, this is going to be transformed into an amazing entertainment venue. In which podcast is and eventually there's going to be this new medium called the podcast.
8:22And people are going to come together from different sizes, political fence. And maybe I'll be one of them and you'll be the other one. And we'll do a podcast live at the O2. So it was it was all worth it, and it. Yeah, and I can't say I planned it in that way, but I kind of had a hunch. No, I think it's all worked out. It's just to finish on the school we move on to a press podcast. I do think these things are really interesting. These mega projects. So you'll remember that Tony Blair was on the record quite a lot saying this was going to be very exciting. Peter Manelson saying this was really going to symbolize new Britain.
8:53And I felt that a bit with bizarrely with HS2, which has turned into this monumental catastrophe. 10s of billions of pounds worth. It's a catastrophe. But for Cameron and Osborne, it was the politician looking for the big symbolic legacy project, something that people can stare at. I mean, people obsessed with the Hoover Dam or FDR building. Do you think there is a bit of a risk in modern politics that people get little fixated on kind of big buildings, big projects? And they put too much into it, and that that's often a route to failure. I would argue, for example, that looking over there London 2012, I think London 2012 was one of those big moments of the country and there was a legacy.
9:34I mean, it wasn't perfect, but I think it really, really took the country forward. I think what's just happening in Paris is the same. And if you look at, so just to go back to Paris, I remember being at a European summit chaired by President Mitelle when they used Ladefonds, this new, amazing sort of beautifully designed, very French, kind of modern tower, or horribly ugly. I like it. I'm sure that your friend Charles thought you was a carbon car. I love it. But I think I said really an interesting example where he was obsessed, Mitelle was obsessed with his grand poje, and that was one of his grand poje.
10:09And there it is, decades later, that's where the swimming is in the Olympic Games. So I think these things can be a very, very big driver of a country's feeling about itself. But this wasn't, was it? This was a big driver of the country's feeling about itself. It is now, but accidentally. I think accidentally, it is now, the O2 is now one of the most famous musical performance venues in the world. You know, if Beyoncé or Taylor Swift are doing a kind of world tour, this is one of the places they're like to come. So it has become a part of our cultural heritage. I'm not saying that was planned.
10:41That would be very disinjected. It was even Peter Mandel, I don't think it would go that far. If you look at the area generally, I think this area is transformed because of the joint big projects of this and the Olympic Games. So I guess you are disagreeing agreeably with me, because my general instincts, when politicians start talking about grand mega legacy projects, I get a bit worried. I tend to think governments more about sweating the small details and HS2 definitely became for me, a kind of vision of that. But to finish on this, one of the great bits news that we're announcing here is that we've opened up the top flight of O2, new tickets becoming available.
11:17So joining the over 10 ,000 people that are going to be here, we're now opened up first stream of tickets. So people are to be encouraged to come along because they aren't going to be able to see us here at the O2. So it's not over the 15th, the ticket tickets you go to the rest is polities .com and we'll be joined by Katike and Anthony Scaramucci who will also be joining us in Cardiff, Glasgow and Manchester and Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Oasis. We'll be joining us at Brighton and Birmingham. We can't guarantee that, we can't guarantee that by Sir Rubar. It's a river. It's possible. It's anything's possible.
11:49It's definitely not that. Yeah. And if Kamil has around as well and needs a new sort of venue for the election, it would be great as well. And if not, I can get that old dude from the beach boys that I saw in Cape Cod. So that's it. We will now, I'd actually quite like to do the whole podcast up here, but the security guys over there looking at us. No, he's saying it's all fine. We could do the NHS up here. They don't like it. They don't like the sound quality. They keep stopping us for the planes flying. They're going to grumpy and they think it's all about ticket sales up here. They don't want to talk about serious policy.
12:17Yeah. All right. Okay. So anyway, that's the reason why we've been banging on about the dome is because we're going to be here, but we're now going to go down. We've climbed up 300 steps. We're now going to go down and then we will do the rest of the podcast in better sound quality. And talk about some pretty serious issues internationally and domestically restructuring the NHS and big global events.
12:42So, Rory, we're now back on Earth. We're back on ground level and we're going to talk about NHS. We're going to talk about Ukraine and we're going to talk about social media in Australia. So let's kick off with the National Health Service. So, Lord Darcy, who was a minister under Gordon Brown and is a distinguished doctor, produced a rapid turnaround review for Kier Samar and for the new health section where streaming on the NHS. And a surprise surprise, I think anyone listening will be surprised to discover that he concludes the NHS is in real trouble. And the statistics are pretty shocking. There are currently 7 .8 million procedures currently waiting and people will have seen in the newspapers stories about 12 hour waits and emergency rooms, you know, ambulances piled up trying to get people in.
13:29So, he's come forward with a series of recommendations. One of the big ones is around capital investment. So, one of the biggest ways in which the NHS has really been struggling is in terms of buildings and equipment.
13:44So, 37 ,000 million pounds on capital infrastructure and buildings, including a 13 billion pound backlog of repairs to buildings. And then he's very interested in the shift away from hospitals towards communities which were streaming spoke about when we interviewed him on the shirt. In fact, people want more on some of the politics around health that may be worth listening to were streaming and if you buy us some leading. But anyway, what was your, what was your view of? Well, it's interesting. You've gone to some of the recommendations. I was somewhat overwhelmed by the analysis before that. And I think this, if you go, if you go through the whole report, essentially he says the NHS is in real trouble.
14:23We've got to be honest with the public with just how bad it is. We're a very unhealthy nation. The last government broke promise, a prompt promise on waiting times, GP waits, they've got longer mental health as in a terrible state, A &E is awful, cancer cares lagging behind everything else, quality of care is terrible, low productivity, low capital spend, as you say, terrible morale of staff, terrible patient engagement. And then his conclusion, the NHS is in critical condition, but its vital signs are strong. I felt this was a really absolutely brutal analysis. And I worry, it goes back to what we talked about in relation to Grenfell, whether the scale of policy solutions are going to match the challenge because it is utterly damning when you read what's happened.
15:07And I have to say when you see people like Victoria Atkins, the shadow of Hellsucker Tree, come out and say as she did, well rather the Labour goal about what we did 14 years ago, 10 years ago, it's what they're going to do now that matters. That is true. That is true. It is what Labour does now that matters. However, this is about as devastating analysis of the last government's management of the NHS is anybody could have written. And he's not couched in those terms. But even the landslare forms, we will forget about the landslare forms. He says they were a total catastrophe, which has left the NHS workforce still dealing with the fallout.
15:46The other thing to say is I can remember the last time Aradazi wrote a report on the health service. It was the Labour government in 2008. And it was called High Quality Care for all. And it advised that we go from diagnosing treat to predict and prevent. And as you say, we're treating sort of three progn mantra now is to go from hospital to communities, you said, analogue to digital and to go from cure to prevention. All very, very, very sensible. What this report made me worry about was whether it actually is going to be able to be done in any sort of reasonable timeframe without loads of money.
16:25Yeah. And even with loads of money, how would you do it? Because of course that view from where streeting is exactly what Rishi Sunak, the outgoing conservative prime minister, was pitching all the way through those debates whenever I asked him about his NHS policy. It was all about analogue to digital hospital community and prevention. The logic of it is obvious, right? And we're treating and the leading interview has some pretty good stats on the fact that the UK spends much more on hospitals and much less on primary care public health and prevention than its equivalence in Europe. And he gives a good example.
17:00I mean, obviously if you detect someone with stage one cancer, it's cheaper to deal with and the prognosis is much better. If you don't detect them to their stage three, it's hospitalisation hugely expensive and difficult prognosis. So the logic of the whole thing is pretty clear. One challenge though is that that logic was pretty clear to the conservative government as well. And was part of their stated policy. And it's what Jeremy Hunt was banging on about when he took her from Adry Lansley. And as I said, Rishi Sunak was talking about a great deal. As for the investment in capital, of course, that was supposed to be Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings.
17:32You remember 40 new hospitals and all this kind of stuff was all about them, recognising that there was a massive backlog of investment. And even on the money side, the story around the NHS spend, and this is boring for listeners in a way because we keep pointing this out, but the point is not that the conservatives cut the NHS spend. NHS spend went up on average about 1 % above inflation every year from 2010. The problem is that health in Britain gets much more expensive than inflation, naturally, because we're getting older all the time and drugs are getting more expensive. A lot of the money, well not a lot, you know, substantial parts of that budget did go on these reorganisations, which of which as I say is absolutely scathing.
18:13You're pulling the capital spending route. So in 2009, just before Labour left office, when NHS satisfaction ratings were at their highest and when waiting times were at their lowest, capital spending was 0 .54 % of GDP. This is from Herodars' report. By 2013, it was 0 .26. So that is austerity, I'm afraid. That is austerity at work. And it rose during the pandemic for obvious reasons. He said, if we'd matched the EU average, we would have spent 27 billion more on capital investment. If we'd matched the Nordics, it would be 35 billion. If we'd matched what he calls other English -language countries, mainly Australia, which comes out really well from this report, it would be 46 billion.
18:56And the average overall, as you say, 37 billion, which he said would have eliminated all backrock maintenance and funded Johnson's mythical 40 new hospitals. So that is a massive, massive, massive gap. And you keep saying on the podcast, you said again last week, and Kierst Amher said, last said in his response to this report, there will be no new money without reform. Well that's fine, but actually reform can, particularly in the early days of reform, provide additional needs for resources. And it's very, very hard for me to work out how are they going to do this? I'm not a tall surprise. I think it was a sensible thing.
19:31If Kierst Amherst talk about, we're going to need 10 years to turn this around, because this looks like it's going to become a very, very difficult long -term project. We keep coming back to this question of austerity and Tory cuts and stuff. So taking you as a kind of random person who sometimes says that economics is not your strong point, what's your guess of how much you think Gordon Brown increased health spending between, or Gordon Brown, Tony, but I've been in 2010 in that 10 years. How much did you get actually? Yeah. Yeah. Centre, any old times, yeah. Oh, you've obviously got the answer right in front of you, so I'm not going to guess, because then I could look stupid.
20:05And I, or any something I want to know, in the olden days, I would have known that off the top of my head. So the answer is it's absolutely massive. Health spending, the annual budget on health more than doubled between 2000 and 2010 went from 48 billion a year to 110 billion pounds a year. And I guess that's the the sort of big elephant in the room. I supported it. I mean, I think Gordon Brown did the right thing. I think you did the right thing, you guys, but I think we have to be brutally clear with people what you did, which is you more than double the amount spent. It's a huge increase. And what then happened is not that the conservators came in and cut.
20:41It's that conservatives came in and reduced. Yeah, they reduced the right. They only increased by 1 % a year over inflation instead of going up massively. They did increase the workforce, but what the other thing that comes through our Adiz's report is that productivity didn't increase if anything the opposite happened. Yeah. So let's just step away for a second. So first big problem that you've put your finger on is money. If you really wanted to achieve the sort of improvements that you guys achieved, you're looking at something like doubling the amount that you spend on the NHS when the NHS is already consuming about four out of every 10 pounds and current expenditure.
21:15So problem number one, problem number two is that the politics of this. So I just wanted to sort of bring it back to you and Tony Blair and me as an MP and a minister about really talking about the problem of reform. So we have the idea, which we all agree about, and then it's actually doing it. So the truth is that reform in the NHS, I mean almost broke Margaret Thertcher in 1990. She sacked Ken Clark, reversal of forms 2003, which I'd love to talk to you a bit about. You almost lost your majority in trying to bring in foundation hospitals. Lansley and David Cameron, Lansley was sacked and the whole Lansley reforms again, critically threatened the coalition with the lift -empts.
21:54Why does that happen? Well partly because one of the biggest problems that's very, very central of all of this is hospitals. And in order to do what Lord Dazie is talking about, what we're speaking about, you've got to move money from hospitals to the front line. And basically that means cutting hospitals. I mean there's no other way of putting it. You're shifting the proportion of money you're spending on hospitals towards the front line. You're cutting hospital budgets. And every single time you cut a hospital, you have MPs up in arms. And I saw this just to be honest about this. I saw this in Cumbery, right?
22:30So the Cumberland infirmary in Carlisle, even in 2010, even at the end of the Labor Government, was in real trouble. Terrible results on breast cancer streaming, super bug problems. So there was an attempt by the government to try to deal with this. And the boards and the experts came together and they said we've got too many hospitals in Cumbery. We've got West Cumberland infirmary and we've got Carlisle. And there's a really good teaching hospital in Newcastle. And all the evidence suggests we would get much better results if we merged the two hospitals in Cumbery and we moved more and more services to Newcastle where they have much better research and results.
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23:03Consequently, total cross -party, Lib Dem conservative Labor up in arms. And of course none of us want to see the big picture. I was fighting about the closing of every single community hospital in my constituency. Elections were lost by elections were lost over the issue of the A &E and the West Cumberland infirmary. And nobody wanted to buy into the idea that actually patient outcomes would be better if we closed these hospitals. So I'm just going to stop there and get you to talk a little bit about the politics of this. Well the politics are very very very difficult and what this report I think, I think the purpose of this report is actually to try to establish in the public mind a bit like they did on the economy with the black hole.
23:44We've been banging on about the NHS being in a really really really bad state for years ever since the choice had been in. It's actually a lot worse than you think and here's the evidence and here's the report. And then, where streeting has the job and Kierstam has the job of bringing forward the reforms that he's talking about and bringing forward a 10 -year plan. Now, if they are right that this is going to take 10 years, which I think and I think they probably are, that means they're going to have to win another general election, at least one more general election. And to win that general election, they are going to have to and people are going to get sick to death of hearing labour ministers blame the last lot and the mess you left behind and you ruined the NHS and we're fixing it.
24:26But they're going to have to cement that in the public mind. Just as David Cameron George Osborne did with the mess we inherited back in 2010. Otherwise, they will find it incredibly difficult to do difficult things. They're going to find it difficult anyway. And as you say, every time we're seeing a version of this right now in relation to the universal taking where the universal went to fuel allowance, which is tiny compared to the NHS right? Exactly. And yeah, look at the right -wing newspapers, which normally would be arguing that, you know, universal benefits aren't a good thing and the thing should be means tested to save the state money.
25:02Every single contender in the Tory leadership election is coming out and saying this is a terrible thing to do. Every single MP who voted with the government on it is getting thousands of emails of organised campaigns, just as you used to and you voted on the government whip on on popular things. So MPs are getting a very early sign on the issue of what will happen. If you imagine, as you say, if you're the successor, a Labour MP in a Labour constituency with a hospital that the health secretary comes along and says, actually, we're going to reorganise, we're going to have fewer hospitals, we're going to put more of our resources into the community, we're going to build up mental health teams outside of hospitals and you know full well, there'll be a massive campaign because of the hospital.
25:46Now, my point to we're speaking here, Stammer, you have to face it down. Also, you're an MP who's won what wasn't to Labour seat before. So you feel that you've fought to take this marginal seat. You've sweated every vote. Some of these seats are on tiny, tiny margins and you've got either a LibDam or Tory opponent producing pamphlets quoting you, saying you supported the NHS and now the A &E's closing in your local hospital or the hospital itself is closing or the breast cancer services are closing. Yeah, listen, it's not easy but funnily enough, I've just been reading Tony Blair's book on leadership, which is a very kind of Tony kind of read, but he's very interesting on this business of doing difficult, unpopular things and he makes few recommendations.
26:30One of them is do it early in the first term because by the end of the first term, you've got to be able to show that this progress being made. Which is the Ken Clark point, right? Absolutely, absolutely. But the other thing he says is that you leadership is not about saying the things that people want to say and doing the things that you know that people want to do. Leadership is actually about confronting people with choices that perhaps they won't want to make, but your job as the leader is to persuade them of the long term need. Now, that is very, very difficult in the modern age. And another example, he's the other thing about Tony's book is obsessed with technology and rightly, and it's so important to a lot of the changes that we talk about.
27:09But in Aradaz's report, he makes the point that actually the technological advances, if anything, have actually increased the workload of clinicians because the technology is not being used to best advantage. And I still don't think that we fully understand what we mean when we say technology can transform the way that we interact with the state. And Tony's argument is that we've got it, you know, he wants to sort of complete reimagining of the public's interaction with services like the National Health Service. On that, again, it's true. I mean, I really believe that AI and technology could have incredible productivity benefits.
27:46But the fight that you would have is that to get productivity benefits literally just means you're basically replacing a human with a computer. And every time you do that, somebody's losing their job. And therefore you have all the unions out against you. And their first argument will be safety. You know, the computer's not as safe for reliable as a human doing that job. And they will have incredible public support because people will be suspicious about the interaction with technology. So again, is the labor government going to show the courage and the determination to face down the nurses, the doctors, the unions in order to bring these productivity benefits they could do?
28:24My other question is how can you do it early in your term, unless you've got it up your sleeve? I mean, I got the impression that you had before you came in in 1997 already had pretty clear thoughts about independence, the Bank of England shore start so that you were able to get going quite quickly. Real reform of the NHS would require some secret plan, which these guys have developed over the last two, three years, which is really going to be a piece of legislation, the law that they're going to drive through the house of comments. But when does it exist? I mean, do you think this thing exists?
28:55Or they're writing it now? I mean, I don't know as the answer to that. I think the three pillars are the ones that we've talked about that we're treating as taught in terms of kind of, you know, where they want to take the NHS in terms of the areas for reform. Again, to go back to the report, when you read his analysis of the Lancer reforms, I can know this, they established over 300 new national health services organisations. And he makes the point, how can they possibly all be high performing? When you're creating 300 new organisations within an existing already complex structure. So I think there'll be resistance to some extent by the government in wanting to make it all about organisational and institutional change.
29:34But if you're talking about transforming from the analysis that this report presents, which is really, really damning, to something where he says, and Keir Starmer says, and Westreeding says, the fundamental principles of the National Health Service are not up for grabs. So the funding model is going to say the same. And then I think you're kind of hemming yourself in. I mean, presumably you said this is sort of short order review. I imagine it'll now be a longer sort of review. I wonder whether they will at some point try to broaden this out to bring other parties into the debate and discussion about it.
30:11I mean, it's astonishing they haven't. I mean, it would seem to me that the obvious things to do with the NHS is to get a cross -party 10, 15, 20 -year plan together, which everybody signs up to. That's why I keep shamelessly trying to say I'd love to serve on a cross -party commission on this and bring in. Oh, you've downgraded your role. You wanted to chair it earlier. I just want to be on it. Yeah, I just want to be on it. I just want to be on it. But no, because I think there's nothing more important and there's nothing which more obviously needs a much longer term plan. And that's the only hope presumably of getting really difficult reforms through.
30:44Can I just, as we conclude, just to sort of bring it to life again for people? I guess one of the interesting things about the NHS unlike prisons, which most people don't visit, is we all go to the GP and we've all got relatives in hospital so that we see the best and the worst of it much more frequently. And it touches our lives. There are more than one million people employed in the NHS, 316 million GP appointments a year. I mean, so if you think about my personal experience, delivered my son at home, fantastic experience with 999 because they told me how to help get the baby out. Obviously, with Shashana doing most of the work, slightly disappointing experience with the ambulance, given the ambulance to turn up for about an hour and a half after the baby was born in central London.
31:27Then fantastic experience with the midwife who then turned up and weighed the baby at home and said we didn't have to go in hospital. So I mean, did you do a little snapshot? But I mean, every single one of us are living these lives where we turn up, we see some things we think are terrific and so many things that are obviously ludicrous and wasteful. And then finally, when you look at the statistics, one of the reasons they keep reforming doesn't matter where it's Ken Clark or Alan Melbourne with Labour or Andrew Lansley, one of the things they're always worrying about is how different different hospitals are in performance.
31:57I mean, you can see some hospitals will spend on average 2 ,000 pounds on a procedure that another hospital's spending 1 ,000 pounds on a procedure to do. Some hospitals are managing to get twice as many procedures done in a day compared to another hospital and they can be two London hospitals with very similar catch from populations. So a loss of this stuff comes out, what do you do about it? What do you do? I mean, I felt this in a small way in prisons. If you turn up the places filthy and the weather is very turn up in a hospital, they're missing appointments, the emergency rooms, staff, the ambulances are queuing outside, too many patients are dying.
32:31How do you sort that out? And of course, you can't do it from the center, right? You need really good management systems, but you create the management systems. And then of course, Lord Darcy says, well, you've created 300 new management systems. Yeah. Yeah. I noticed that when Keir Starmer and we're streasing when the review was published and they did a hospital visit with cameras in tow, and I recognised it was the University College Hospital. And it was in one of the most modern, high tech, amazing equipment, fantastic new blocks. And yet the story was about how terrible everything was and it was all sort of fall of debates.
33:07Anybody watching that clip of where Keir Starmer was talking would have thought, my god, if every hospital was like that would be, would be kind of okay. We all know, as you say, we all have our experience, some good, some bad. I was in hospital a few months ago and actually things went a bit wrong, but it wasn't, it wasn't their fault and they were absolutely brilliant about it. I either dealt with it, other experiences, my GP's pretty good. So we've all got those stories, but equally, what comes through this report and what comes through all the polling is that sat -patient satisfaction is going down and down and down and down.
33:37One of the big things he talks about, he talks about too much focus on hospitals, too much resource on hospitals, even worse than that because of the lack of provision of social care and the failure of the last lot, or failure of either of the last governments to really to fix it, the capacity that is wasted on people who are literally staying in there for weeks, sometimes for months, without good medical need because they have nowhere to go. As a result, ambulance delays, he says the main cause of ambulance delays, which you suffered as well, is probably the ambulance that should have been coming to you when your when your son was being born, was stuck in a queue outside the hospital waiting to try to find some space to take somebody who who needed a bed.
34:17At my final point, Roy, before we go to a break, you know, I've got an interest in mental health and his analysis on mental health devastating to read. 41 % drop in learning disability nurses. Overall, mental health now 20 % of the disease burden, but 10 % of the resource that goes into health service, a reduction in mental health nursing between 2011 and 2016, out of area placements rising again, including for children and young people. We've had a wasted decade where the talk has been good. I've said on this podcast many times, I think David Cameron Theresa may really meant meant it when they said they wanted to reform mental health and improve mental health services, but you read this report and I'm afraid they got worse on their watch.
35:03So anyway, this is going to be forget sort of rouse over Kirsta and was wives clothing and even things like winter fuel allowance, I mean, eventually that will either get tapered and sorted or it'll get, you know, just sort of go into the body politic, but this, the National Health Service, the future of the National Health Service, this is fundamental to the future of our politics for the next several general elections and this report and whether they can fix the problems the outlines is right up there and top three top government challenges for Geistarma right now. Very good. Well, Alison, let's take a quick break.
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36:49Welcome back to The Restus Politics with me, Alistair Campbell and with me, Rory Stewart. Now, Rory last week, Kierstarmour went off to Washington, sat down with Joe Biden and the big issue in terms of the coverage of that was about Ukraine and this issue of weather, Ukraine and Zelensky can use the Storm Shadow missiles which can go much deeper into Russian territory. Up to now the missiles that the Allies have been giving to Zelensky, they can use them, they use them for defense within their own territory. So giving them Storm Shadows already, they can use them to hit Russian territory, but only Russian territory which has been occupied since the invasion so they can hit Crimea, they can hit Don Yetzka -Luhansk, back to you.
37:34So big issue, these Storm Shadow missiles, which cost a million dollars every time you fire one off and Zelensky wants to be able to use them to go further. They have a range of 250 kilometers. They can penetrate bunkers, they can penetrate ammunition stores and you can see why he's pretty desperate to get his hands on them and I think we were expecting a decision from the meeting with Joe Biden but we didn't get one. Yeah, so Storm Shadow missiles are a cruise missile. It's quite a big thing, I mean it's got a three meter wing span, you strap it to the bottom of a bomber, release it and it actually climbs up to altitude and then comes in and the since the French and the British started supplying them spring of last year, they've killed a Russian general, they've killed the commander of the Black Sea, fleet with them and strikes on Sebastian Pole, they've hit a submarine, they've hit a major Russian ship, so they've been quite effective, but at the moment as you say, they can only be used for hitting territory which is considered to be Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia rather than Russia itself and what Kirstama seems to now want to do is allow them to use these missiles to fire into Russia itself.
38:46That could be very useful because it could allow them obviously, more straightforwardly, to drive back Russian assets further back, so as you say this thing would drive them back another 150 miles. It can also potentially hit Russian infrastructure, one of the big changes in the war is that the Russians are increasingly hitting electricity infrastructure in Ukraine and maybe if you started hitting Russian infrastructure, it would provide a deterrence or some reason for Russia to back off a bit. And again, it's one of these things which on its own isn't going to change anything, it's just part of the general picture.
39:16The bigger broader picture still are big debates about strategy, should they have gone into course, should the Ukrainians have invaded Russian territory? Is that a smart move because it gives them a bargaining chip or is it overextending them so they're going to weaken their front lines and the Russians may be able to advance in other areas? Is Russia going to continue to largely ignore what they're doing there and concentrate on breaking through the existing front lines in which case the Ukrainians can dig in or Russia going to go north and try to deal with that? And what happens next year? Because a lot of this story around us supplying missiles is also about the US and the $60 billion that they voted this year and the funny ways in which the Pentagon accounts for it because of course it's not cash.
39:55What's happening is that the Pentagon says, oh well we're providing you with $60 billion worth of equipment but of course the Pentagon has every reason to overvalue its equipment. So a lot of kind of dodgy, armored personnel carriers that they use in Afghanistan, they don't have much use of. They put a big price tag on and ship them off to Ukraine. And a lot of the things Ukrainians want, they're still not getting that many off and it's very difficult to get into the depths of the Pentagon to work out why when the US military have 60 -patreon missile batteries. Is there any prepared to give one to Ukraine?
40:24Just a few things on the kind of political or the geopolitical arena on this. I think one of the reasons why Zelensky is really kind of trying to get this thing over the line is because of these reports that Iran has been supplying more ballistic missiles to Russia and getting as part of the deal getting support for their nuclear program which presses a lot of buttons in Washington. And then the other thing that I think is worth talking about, there was a very interesting Jake Sullivan who's Biden's main kind of foreign policy advisor. He did a video link speech to policy makers and military people in Ukraine last week and he was saying that it wasn't unwillingness that was stopping them from doing this.
41:07It was difficult, complicated logistics. He said it's not a matter of political will but given what Ukraine is up against we've got to do more or we've got to do better. Now reading between the lines that sounded to me much more cautious than the message that Anthony Blinken when he went with David Lamy to meet Zelensky recently sounded a lot more cautious. The other interesting thing that came out of that was the head of Ukraine's intelligence said that the moment of all of Russia's allies the one that was the most damaging in terms of assistance was North Korea because of the large the massive quantities of ammunition that they were providing.
41:47So if you throw in Iran with their ballistic missiles and North Korea in that content you can see why Biden might be a little bit cautious. The reason why they're waiting by the way why the American go ahead is necessary isn't just because they're the leaders of the alliance. It's just that for these missiles to work they require a certain amount of American technological and technical support. In order to operate we had a good interview coming up with Anna Poem on leading in which she frames this debate and the big debate obviously is between people who think Biden's been correct to follow this relatively cautious policy.
42:21So listeners will remember over the last two and a half years again and again, America will say it won't supply a certain kind of weapon system and then a few months later it supplies it. So if you're on Biden's side you say this is smart they're being cautious they don't want to provoke too much response from Russia and that they're slowly boiling the frog and they can gradually increase the support without putting everything. If you're on the other side which is the Ann Applebaum side or Ben Wallace who's been talking about it's quite a lot. That view is no no we've been far too wimpy we should have provided much more support and everything we provide is a dollar short and a day late and the one of the reasons that Ukraine never manages to do its counteroffensive is that we're always producing the stuff yeah.
43:02Lately, limply at the wrong time and that we should challenge Russia more and obviously at the heart of this debate is a question of trying to guess when Putin says you've crossed a red line if Europe directly gets involved in supporting missile strikes on Russian territory I'm going to lose the plot how seriously do we take that? So we don't know we don't know actually I mean the honest ones we don't know we don't know what's inside his head. We also are struggling to work at how he's going to respond he's presumably not going to fire ballistic missiles into Europe but he could well support Iran on North Korea to cause trouble in other places that might be intelligent stuff coming in that Putin might be expeling more of our people he might threaten cyber attacks so there's an incredible game of bluff it's imputence interest to suggest that if we support strikes into Russia some amazing hell will be unleashed by Russia which will push us into a third world war and of course it's a new craines interest to argue that that's all bluff and Putin's not going to do anything he hasn't done anything in the past but I think the honest treats us nobody really knows it was interesting that when this debate was going on ahead of Kierstheim are going off to Washington Putin called in one of the state media people just one one microphone and he did a clip to camera essentially with the sort of understated but clear threat that if you do this then that's you at war with Russia and terrible consequences will follow and everybody goes off thinking he's talking about nuclear weapons and he's kind of done that several times so does that mean that the last time he was bluffing and that the time after that when we sent in the tanks and all the other stuff he was bluffing and does it mean that there's no limit to when the bluff runs out and then there was no I mean Medvedev you know his kind of sort of predecessor former president who's now still quite a big part of the Russian machine and he came up with a very unpleasant turn of phrase he said that if we did this Kier would be reduced to a giant melted spot they would melt it now again I think the world melt is designed to sort of say you know get us thinking about newcs but the truth is if you know I think people will enjoy the interview with Apple bar and she feels very strongly about this I think you and I do even though we're aware of the sort you know the risks I mean it's to put our cuts on the table we tend to believe we should have provided more support to Ukraine earlier and take more risk on this yeah and if Russia does win or is allowed to define this as a win then that is a terrible thing for European security and frankly the security of the world because it won't be the last thing that he goes out and of course the other thing in the mix here is which Zelensky is worried about is Zelensky I'm sure will have followed the debate between Trump and Harris the same as most people did and Donald Trump would not bring himself to say that it is a good thing for the world if Ukraine wins this war instead he's back to be sort of boastful braggart stuff about I'll get this fixed even before I become president in other words you'll do a deal which involves puting keeping the land that he's got keeping the ground that he's taken so for that's the other big thing that's into the mix here that the that Zelensky is worried about which probably makes him even more agitated that Joe Biden is so cautious they're all going to be Biden, Stama, Zelensky, lots of the others going to be the United Nations General Assembly I think that's the point at which this decision gets made.
46:17There's also been some interesting stuff out of Germany I mean Shultz came in with a big fanfare he was going to increase military expenditure to 2 % set aside 100 billion to do that but that 100 billion is going to run out and it would take a 60 % rise in the defense budget to meet that 2 % I mean and the some of the stats are extraordinary to get their howits levels up to where they were in 2003 forward take 100 years and what Germany's doing is putting more money into social welfare putting more money into child benefit you get 3000 euros per child up to the age of 25 and that is costing more than the entire core budget of the German defense ministry.
46:54The other factor in the German context is that one of the things that we've got this another state election at the weekend in Brandenburg where the AFD look like they might win and the rise of the far right the populist far right and the populist far left both of them essentially constantly echoing Putin's main talking points that is also making life more difficult on Ukraine for Shultz. I'm going to make a prediction, Laurie. Yep you brought up Germany I'm going to make a prediction that the German SPD will do a Biden Harris. A Biden Harris question. Good they'll get rid of Shultz. They'll get rid of Shultz.
47:29You heard it here first. Well you probably haven't heard it here first if you're a jerk you know you heard it here first if you're a you. Very good. Some very interesting we do just briefly to close off. Our current leading guest by the way is Nate Silver so that's where we talk about all things American election but we interviewed a while back Peter Malalowski who's the premier of South Australia who is trying to ban social media access for children on the 14 and interestingly he has employed this former high court chief justice Robert French to draw up draft legislation and it's a fascinating thing he's literally drawn up the legislation and his report explains how he has come to that conclusion.
48:14It's a really sort of interesting reader. It's the sort of policy development I think you were library but the big news is the Antineal Benazie the prime minister of Australia, the federal state of Australia, the Commonwealth of Australia, he has decided to roll it out for the whole country. So that is a great example of one leader in one state comes up with an idea, fights for it, wins that fight politically and now the whole country and if that happens in if Australia do that I suspect that we other countries will do the same. And very interesting too because one of the reasons he managed to do it is he also got the opposition to sign up for it before he got his own party leader to sign up for it.
48:52Let's just quickly just romp through the arguments on this that there are three positions obviously on this there's the position of the social media companies and you're for a Nick Clegg which is they want his little legislation and constraints of this sort as possible and we need to be honest about that because I am getting a bit in the neck from people saying we're being a bit too gentle to hella Schmettson to Nick Clegg when we interview them. They're very good at being emollient and sweet on interviews but when you see their lawyers in court it's quite clear that these social media companies basically want no restrictions or control at all on what they're doing and rely on very very extreme arguments.
49:30So does that mean second view is the Manel Lorskis view which is social media for children is dangerous and it should be banned and the third view is what's been developing more in the UK and Europe which is sort of typically sort of somewhere in the middle which is can you control the content so they would say it's like saying instead of children can't get macaque they must wear a belt or it's not they can't get to a pool but there should be a fence around a pool with the Australian example. And I guess the debate just to lay it out very quickly for listeners is on the harm side the harm side is the content social media can be absolutely horrible the contact that you get through social media right who you can get in touch with getting in touch with creepy people on social media conduct on social media which is kind of children being bullied or shown horrible explicit naked images and finally all the contract stuff commercial data harvesting on children that's sort of downside the upside if you're making the argument social media is that it's placed where a lot of children feel this opportunity to socialize to make friends to relax to get away from the stress of school to experiment with things that their parents don't necessarily want them experimenting with and also gain information from learning.
50:42So the people who are going the middle ground say we've got to get that and then there's the final view I think which I'm sympathetic to I'd love to hear you on which is that maybe we might end up with the compromise but maybe Peter Manoloskas is right to start with a really aggressive ban because that might be the only way to get these companies to start concentrating in meters in the middle. He talks in terms of this being a ban Albanese interestingly prefers to talk about it being minimum age access but you know it's about it you know it would take away freedoms but the other roul going on with them social media in Australia the Australian government has got these new laws coming in unrelated to this although in the same area basically saying that they're going to levy substantial fines on social media companies if they don't comply with your Australian government rules on combating scams and disinformation and on that basis Elon Musk whose Twitter account is becoming more embarrassing by the day he basically says you know he talked about Kierstarma being extreme and obvious and all this stuff he called the Australian government fascists because they they wanted to do this to find companies that that allowed this information and do nothing about it.
51:54So I can't imagine Musk is going to be very happy about this the social media stuff and kids and if you remember Rory's remember Rory's Peter Manoloskas said that the social media companies just thus far refused really to engage with them on this and they've now got a bill they're going to get a bill through parliament. It's become such a sort of symbolic issue of free speech I mean I did a long conversation I mean the states now did a long conversation with an American tech investor for an hour and a half he just kept saying Europe and Australia are trying to create authoritarian states and he tried to suggest that any kind of attempts to limit free speech on social media is an attack on fundamental human rights and liberties.
52:37So I then had dinner with my best friend who's British and was complaining about this and expecting him to sympathize with me and he also slightly took this view and said he's very suspicious and you know the humans are more grown up and we're able to cope with this stuff much better than the people think and a lot of it's a joke and the government's overreacting and free speech is being censored and that then leads into obviously people who are worried about what's happening in universities and free speech being censored there so I was trying to say and I guess you and I agree on this that it's very dangerous in politics to turn a detailed individualist you like you know what exactly is in the legislation on the digital act and Britain into a huge kind of philosophical discussion about freedom and tyranny and Hitler and autocracy.
53:21We just got to keep bringing it back to details what are we actually proposing and what will it really mean? Yeah that's why I wonder I mean I can't imagine a huge proportion of our listeners would necessarily get through the whole thing but I think we should put in the newsletter the full report written by this guy French because it's a very very interesting example of somebody given the job of analyzing report all the meetings that he had he just has very short notes of all the points that were made and then he ends the process by by drafting the legislation so it's a really interesting example of and you know legislation gets amended and there'll be arguments about it and so forth but what is done is give is take you through the process of actually and it's how government might do it how you might bring this into into being because of course what the social media companies will say rightly is that it will be very difficult to work out exactly how to do this one of the things Albanese taught is it might have to be done through facial recognition well that again brings into question all sorts of of other issues of that you know we've talked about and other episodes of the podcast so anyway I'm with Peter Malau because I think that there is a real problem I think when we were talking about the National Health Service and the rise in mental illness epidemic amongst young people I don't blame social media in quotes but I think it is a big factor I think the fact there's a girl said to me in a school recently with social media if you are being bullied there is now no escape there is no sanctuary there is no way you can go to hide away from it and and I think that's stuff that we've got to listen to and you may be right maybe Peter Malau is right out there and we'll end up somewhere in the middle but I hope we don't end up so far in the middle that just becomes a bit of a mush well this this maybe is a good way of looping together all the different things that we're talking about which is that the difference between the kind of analyst and the politician and what seems to be the perfect technocratic policy and what you actually have to do to get stuff done and that'll be true with the NHS I mean I've some great work of people want to get into the details of this by an amazing health journalist called Andy Crowley that this was a great book by Isabel Hardman on the history of the NHS but I also slightly feel when I hear Andy making a hundred detailed points the big question is how do you do it in our political sphere not not what's the ideal solution and the same is true here if you talk about social media Sonia Livingston if people are interested a LSE academics given a great infusion ABC Australian news where she lays out the arguments on either side but I'm still with you I think actually these companies are not being reasonable you can't have a reasonable debate with them there isn't a halfway house where they're going to voluntarily come along and agree to lose access unrestricted access to their biggest growing market share so I think this is the situation where you have to pull the handbrake pretty aggressively in order to get anything done and just look at the way Elon Musk is behaving at the moment Trump has this guy trying to shoot at him from a golf course and Elon Musk does what he calls a funny tweet about well nobody's trying to kill Biden or Harris with then a sort of face of a smiling thingy the idea of that guy engaging with something like this so I think Peter Malau's case is right they're not going to engage we'll just bring forward a bill and and now Albanese is taking it up now Rory you mentioned a few books there and I've only mentioned Tony's I want to mention another book which relates to our previous discussion about Ukraine Lindsay Hilsson who we both admire channel four international affairs editor she's written a really good book called I brought the war with me stories and poems from the front line it's a very interesting memoir because it's sort of got these very short chapters about the many many many many many dangerous places she's been to but then she has a poem between every chapter that relates to the chapter before and it's a really really nice book and I just want to reach this one very short poem by a German called Gunter Kuhnert translated from the German by Michael Hamburger when the man was dragged from out under the debris of his shell house he shook himself and said never again at least not right away very powerful um so we we began with talking about our UK tour and people come join us people grumble that for Australian listeners they're not getting an Australia tour this is a shameless opportunity for Rory to talk about it so it was there a few weeks ago I was there a few weeks ago there but you're not about to go back again I am so that's a great opportunity for people to um here an engage I mean I'm really looking forward to it particularly after all our stuff with Peter Manoluska so just in case people in Australia would be interested in coming on to him in 21st of October I'll be in Melbourne 29th October Sydney 2nd November Brisbane 3rd November Canberra 4th November Perth and thank you to all our Australian listeners I mean I think you'd probably agree that one of the most um interesting and engaged listeners we have around the world are from Australia I got an email from friend mine in Australia telling me that Boris Johnson is going to be there in uh in December and if you want to go and get a signed copy of his book you can just have to pay ten thousand dollars for a table at one of his events and there you go and he'll be pleased to know Roy this guy I won't drop him in it by name you he said on the same day I got an invite to go and hear Rory Stewart speak I shall go and hear Stewart not Johnson very good because not least much cheaper all right well thank you very much no surprising see you but bye
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