325. Question Time: Are the Tories dead or sleeping?

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1:05Welcome to TheRestlessPolitics .com .com. Question time with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alistair Campbell. And Rory, I want to start with Jacob Aldons. Aldons, ALDOS, says, I want to express how excited I am to be attending Trip Live at the 02 on the 15th of October. It just happens to be my 18th birthday. You will definitely get a shout out, Jacob. As always, you promise me that with your first vote, you'll be voting for Labour, obviously. You then go on to say, I'm also interested in your thoughts on the possibility of the return of the Chegos Islands to Mauritius sparking new disputes with Argentina and Spain over the Forklands and Gibraltar respectively.

1:41Very good question. Amazing. Okay. Chegos Islands. Chegos Islands are part of the British Indian Ocean territory traditionally. They are atolls, low -lying sandy beaches, palm trees, Indian Ocean. They were found by the Portuguese, part French colonies, the French brought over slaves mostly from Africa. And a particular culture developed to the Chegosians on those islands. They were then evacuated by the British in the 1960s, who then handed them over to become an airbase for the United States. And there has been a long term claim on these territories from Mauritius. Britain initially seemed to pay Mauritius in exchange for keeping these islands.

2:24And now Kirstaama has finally resolved this very long -standing dispute between Mauritius, Britain in the International Courts by handing over the Chegos Islands and getting a 99 -year lease for the US on those islands. We talked about Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair's chief of staff on the main podcast this week. Jonathan was involved in this because part of what he does is resolve difficult disputes and so forth. In answer to Jacob's question, I don't see a read across to the Forklands and to Gibraltar. This has also been driven in part by court judgments that Britain had to address. The other argument that has been put around is, the customer issue is quite close to China.

3:07Does this open the door to China somehow taking over there? I think that's all far -right, fanciful stuff. I actually just think this is a pretty sensible deal. On a more serious thing, within 24 hours, I guarantee that I'm going to make up a statistic. 87 % of the people who commented as experts on the Chegos Islands had never heard of it until the day before this deal was done. Anyway, Jacob, really looking forward to seeing you at the O2. One quick one to some that some people have suggested and it seems plausible to me that we're getting a bit of a glimpse of Kierstown as values that he was a human rights lawyer.

3:48He's interested in international law. It's not an accident that if we're looking for something distinctive about his premiership, it is decisions like the attorney general that he appointed some of the decisions around human rights investigations into British troops, some of the decisions around arms sales to Israel, and the Chegos Islands are part of Kierstown as worldview and the kind of role that he wants Britain to play in the world. There are two ways of playing it. You could say, this was inevitable, it was going to happen anywhere in the Tories for about to do it, or you could say, and I'm surprised Labour hasn't more.

4:20Actually, this represents Kierstown as values in the kind of country he wants Britain to be. Good. Your question. Brendan May, what's the point or future of the Tories party? If you're vaguely centrist pro EU, you vote Labour Lib Dem. If you're far left, you vote green. If you're Scottish Welsh, you vote anything but Tory. And if you're as right winged as generally bad, not you'll probably vote reform anyway. Well, there we are. What do you think about that? Very good question. I don't think, by the way, that Labour and the Lib Dems can take the pro EU vote for granted. I'd think many of the Greens would hesitate being called far left.

4:55But I did say one of the things that really shocked people at Bryan, do you remember me when I said that I've been talking to a pollster who does focus groups who said you underestimate how many people during the last election the choice that they were making was between green and reform. In other words, they didn't want to vote for the big parties and they could be socially conservative but also really care about the environment. Look, I think the Tories do have a real problem. I'm not sure that this leadership contest is addressing that problem because what they should be addressing is why did they just suffer such a catastrophic defeat?

5:28And what generic and bad notes seem to be saying is look, you may think that this was the most right wing version of Tories and ever, but believe you me, I'm going to make it even more right wing. Whereas with Tugan Hat, you were saying, well, I'm a bit of a centrist but I'm going to pretend to be a bit more right wing because that's where you need to be to time win. And James Cleveley, he actually goes, it's a pretty bad thing when you're to the centerpiece of your speeches, we just have to be a bit more normal. So I think they'd until they go away and properly think about why they lost and what they need to do to change, I think they're in trouble.

6:04It's interesting that Cleveley began his conference speech just by saying sorry, sorry, sorry, which I think knowledge something, I wouldn't count them out. I mean, you know, famously the cliche, never count them out, the old political party in the world, and all this kind of stuff. And the electoral system definitely favors conservative and labor and the way is actually conservative. Yeah, councils are structured the way the parties are structured gives them a huge advantage. But they do face a problem. I mean, the reform reform is a problem for them and the lib Dems are a problem for them. They took a lot of votes on both sides and working out what you do about that.

6:39Do you tack left, do you tack right or do you try to find an offer that somehow brings all those people back to you by reframing the, but in presumably it's the last one you need to do. Or do you do a modern version of what Cameron tried to do, which essentially is to say, we are going to be different to what we have been. That's what I've not been hearing from any of these, these four. I remember what some internally always used to say when we used to have these weekly meetings. Right. If we were the Tories and we knew about us, what we knew, what would we do with it. And even when Duncan Smith was leader, we would sort of have these sort of meetings, Philip Golden I used to cheer on.

7:16And I remember ones when Duncan Smith was doing his offer, go, so this is a waste of time. This time. And I remember two years ago, I think what I remember at the Tory party is they're not dead. They're sleeping. So I would say at the moment, they're still in that sleeping mode, but eventually they'll presumably stop sleeping awake. If I were Labour, you should never ever be complacent. But I haven't seen anything from these four that may seem to think there's something a bit special coming down the track. One of the problems that Labour always faces is that with the honorable exception, Tony Blair, basically anybody in Labour Party finds it very difficult to understand why anybody would ever vote Tory.

7:55And that makes it very, very difficult for Labour to actually anticipate what the what the movement is. But like, I mean, you understand we have very puzzled by anyone vote for Donald Trump. So are you? I'm also puzzled by people vote for Donald Trump. But it is the great question and disobey with, I mean, I really get the sense with most of the people. No, I understand why people vote Tory really. No, I do. I do. They they they've bought the line that low tax is per se good. That a small state is per se good. And that people should be entitled to sort of, you know, get on and get on with their lines without being too much bothered by government.

8:30That's the sort of basic reasons that people give. And then they find themselves being led by Johnson and Trust. Yeah, connected to that is the critique of Labour, which is that they think Labour's likely to be a bit pious, a bit idealistic, waste quite a lot of money, have good intentions. All of us all know that they've told down the years. Now, Roy, you're going to enjoy it. You're going to enjoy what I'm about to reveal to you. This is a question about one of my pet subjects, Alison Cardle. This week, the Commission report on Orocyn English schools has published. You've talked about this before in the election.

9:01Yes. Do you think it will happen? Do you think the children should be taught how to speak, how to communicate and how to love the language? The answer to that is yes. But, Roy, I've read the report and my old friend and colleague Peter Hyman was talking about it on the on the media today. And it's the chair of the Commission is a guy that I actually know very well called Jeff Barton, who has worked in bed, teacher for years, good friend of Fiona's. And this is from his introduction, Roy. Just listen to this. You'll love this. It's across our earlier settings, our schools and colleges where we're going to need to rekindle a sense of optimism, educational mission of joy and learning.

9:38Now more than ever, we need our young people to be equipped to ask questions, articulate ideas, formulate powerful arguments, deepen the sense of identity and belonging, listen actively and critically to be well -steaped in a fundamental principle of liberal democracy that is being able to disagree agreeably. Hey, that's what I mean. Logan has made the ORC report. Listen, I've read the report. I'll send you a copy if you want to and we'll put it in the newsletter. I'm very, very up for this and what I like about what they've done, they're not going to be adding to the curriculum. They're not going to say you have ORC classes.

10:14Essentially they're saying it should be included in every subject as an entitlement because the ability to speak well, clearly communicate well, actually is a key to social mobility. Parents and employers have expressed a lot of support for it. There is loads of good examples in this report of where it's already happening in state schools and parents are behind it. The economy needs it. Democracy is good for democracy. Teachers welcome it. Children deserve it. So I'm very, very pleased this has happened and your knowledge is in the report that Keir Starmer and Bridget Phillips have said that they're behind this.

10:47So onwards and upwards with that one, I say. Onwards and upwards with that one. Okay, here's one. Maybe it's Sadie Grimmer. House Johnson. Is there a definition of proportionality, remilitary actions, targeted bombing, etc? Is there an acceptable number of civilian casualties in eliminating one or more individuals? Does this depend on the importance of target, do different countries and bodies such as the UN agree on these metrics? Who decides would love to hear your views? Okay, this is obviously central to debates around Israel's action in Gaza. It was also very important to debates around what the US and its allies were doing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

11:23So at the heart of international law, it's pretentious Latin phrase, you're sad, bellum, which basically means that you need to make sure that you've calculated that your strike is proportional. And that means taking into account what's the military objective that served? Have you distinguished between civilians and military personnel? Is it a short term or a long term objective? And the laws on that are very, very strange. One of the things that I learned in Iraq is that we often didn't count civilian casualties if they were co -located with a military target. The fact that it was co -located in military target meant that they weren't really counted as civilians.

12:04And I suppose to put it in really blunt and brutal terms, are you justified killing over 40 ,000 people because a thousand of your own people have been killed? And how does that work? And how does the sense of whether you're on the right side or not work? And that's exactly what international law is about. It's exactly what's is tried in the international courts and it's hugely controversial. And it's also why lawyers are involved all the time, or at least the military's claim lawyers are involved a lot of the time. Although to be honest with many strikes, I find it difficult to believe that the lawyers are actually sitting at the commander's shoulders in the way that these armies claim.

12:47I can remember my only sort of direct experience of this was when I was circumcuited to NATO during the the Kosovo conglates. I've told you before about when General West Clark, who was the leader of the whole operation, and he took me to one side and showed me some targeting plans and explained about this building and asked me whether I thought they could hit it, which was kind of, it was a bit of a weird moment. I really thought, is this totally appropriate? But the reason he wanted to ask me was because this was the building from which some of the Western and other European and American broadcasters were broadcasting from.

13:26So I said, well, no, you know, if you think it's part of his military machine, then fair enough, but should probably try some way to make sure that people who might be there, aren't there. What struck me during that period though is that genuinely was. I don't know whether every target went before a lawyer, but that genuinely was a discussion about whether there was risk to civilian life. And I think that will be very, very interesting when we get through this awful situation in the Middle East right now, and in particular what's been going on in Gaza, you know, the Israeli government at some point will, I imagine, have to publish records of discussions and paperwork of meetings and so forth.

14:09And it'll just be interesting to know whether at various points they said, you know, we should be mindful of the loss of civilian life. And what efforts are taken to avoid that. And what they say of course is that, and this is an argument that's often used, this was used in Iraq in relation to Saddam using civilians and children in particular as human shields. I think it's fair to say that the certainly the situation I was involved in, it was definitely part of the discussions. But at some point, you know, as you say, these things can end up before a court. And the judgements, yes, they're partly legal, but ultimately, they're founded often on fairly subjective judgments that are made in a previous era.

14:49Not to promote other shows, but I heard the most extraordinary interview on Radio 4 with a drone pilot about what it's like in modern warfare. And he was in charge of, in the RF, and he stopped flying planes and found himself living in the English countryside flying drones over places like Syria. And he would be watching sometimes for quite a long time, a particular individual, and the way the optics on the camera works, it says, though, you're looking at them from about, you know, 50 meters away, you're pretty close to it. You get to know their family, you get to know their children, you're watching their cycle, and then you kill them.

15:34And then you watch them die to make sure that they're dead. And then you write up a report on it to meet international legal obligations, etc. And he killed many, many, many people. And he has gone through the most horrifying trauma and post -traumatic stress. And has found it very difficult to explain to people because, of course, some people think, well, what's it? You weren't in the front line. You weren't at danger yourself. So why are you going through post -traumatic stress? But he was driving off, leaving his family, spending eight hours a day doing this and then going home to have dinner with his kids.

16:15And so I'm sorry to raise it, but we'll put a link in the chat because it's just a reminder of the horror of modern war. Yeah, I assume that part of what he's going through, maybe also the reason why I want to talk about it, is because he maybe lies awake at night, wondering about the morality of what he's done. And in preparation for the interview that we did with the reason of the Timothy Snyder, I listened to something that he was doing, where he talked about went out to a million casualties, Russian and Ukrainian in the Russia, Ukraine war. I mean, does Putin ever, at any point, lie awake at night thinking, hmm, a million people, or does he think, oh, well, Stalin did a lot more than that?

16:57And I don't need have to worry. I mean, when do you, how do you draw these moral arguments for yourself? Yeah. And do you ever think it's those of the dehumanizing thing that one of the things that obviously operates in every war is that you see the other side as being not really human? And you don't really care because you're not forced to concentrate on their family, their children, their lives, their grieving relatives and parents and friends. And that's a reason why in times of war, we're seeing in the moment in regard to Israel, where the international media really can't get access to Gaza, we're seeing it in Ukraine, with the Russian operations, it's why they go to great efforts to make sure that you can't see what's happening.

17:39Okay, Rory, quick break in the more questions.

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19:55Question here from somebody called Arena Nagali about the election later this month in Moldova. Small country, but pretty important for reasons that we're going to. What are your thoughts in the upcoming election in Moldova and Maya Sandu's chances of extending her presidency? Do you foresee Russian intervention? How might this impact the EU referendum taking place on the same day? Very quickly, Moldova just before I let's get into the details what's happening. It's a country that pop up there. It's about two and a half million people surrounded on three sides by Ukraine and the other side by Romania.

20:27It was part of the Soviet Union, broke away and part of it has split off to form something called Transnistria, which is a kind of breakaway republic with Moldova. So over to you, Alice, from the question. No, this is, that is a great question, Arena, and thank you for asking it. There's actually just been the most extraordinary thing discovered in Moldova police on last Thursday. They made huge number of raids around the country because they found that upwards of $15 million was being transferred from Russia to Moldova voters, trying to get them to vote a certain way. Now, my son, I know my son, do remarkably strong and pretty courageous woman who is the president.

21:17She probably will win the ballot in that she might welcome top in the ballot, but there are quite a large number of candidates and what happens is that it goes off to run off. And the chances are that the guy she's going to be get up against, guy called Shaw, SHOR, who has basically been convicted of fraud and all sorts of things and essentially is pro -Russian. And he could be run off against him and of course what happens then, kind of anybody's guess. So the Russians are all over this, absolutely all over this. In fact, I think we talked about it on the podcast a while back when there was a report prepared by the American British and Canadian Secret Services who'd uncovered a plot both to influence the election, but also to spark protests if, if Sandu wins or if any pro -Russian candidate fails to win.

22:06So really, really interesting election and the referendum is happening on the same day and this is about whether Moldova's want to carry on with the process to seek to become members of the European Union. Good, okay. So question from Bryony Gould, I'm just reading the prelude to power. I wanted to ask what you think makes a good civil servant. So I'll give you first stab and then I'll have a stab in that. Oh, good civil servant. Easy to work with, clever, broad ranging in terms of thinking, hard working and wants to be part of a team and understands that even though they shouldn't be political politics is part of government.

22:47Any good? Yeah, I think that's pretty good. I think it's pretty good. I'd add to that being able to occasionally step back from whatever plans the civil service have, whatever they think ought to happen. Because often there are many things sort of set in place. You know, when I was in Diffit, for example, the were sort of three five year plans, which are sort of shuntering along and moving. And that meant that it was quite difficult to take input from ministers because you minister saying these just kind of throw them off the strategy that they're pursuing on their own. So working out how to listen to ministers when to listen to ministers and accept that sometimes ministers may have something to contribute.

23:24I mean, I think they often within the system, civil servants will do what ministers say because they think that's the constitution. Ministers have the right to tell them what to say. Ministers are elected, but often they'll do it pretty skeptically thinking, well, okay, I'm doing this because the minister told me to do it. But really, I don't think much of the decision. I found it very difficult to, I mean, I think this is something we all find in our personal lives that often the sort of tone was, okay, minister, if that's what you want me to do, I'll do it. And I wanted to say, yeah, but do you agree with me or disagree with me?

24:01It's just the right thing to do or not. And they be like, well, it's what you want to do. So it'd be nice if occasionally one could get a sense of real engagement and meeting of minds that which you get more in a business or charity or other things I've run where you actually feel that the minister isn't just somebody kind of pulling a big lever telling people to do things they don't want to do, but instead that you can generate policy together. Now, question here from Grant Stewart. And one of the nicest things about this podcast is it's gone on is we've talked less and less about Boris Johnson.