334. 11pm: US Election Countdown Begins

23:36So you guys have been... Yeah. You guys have been in the 19th and the 6th along. You're okay. Nevada would do it with North Carolina. The trouble is if you're down in one, that probably means that you're going to be downed the others by a couple of points. Well, do the sunbelt, the rust belt, do they always go together? No. No, but there's something that is happening and I think Rory will like this because the campaign... The Harris campaign has actually studied this. The demography of Virginia and North Carolina are starting to look very, very similar. And so the campaign said last night, if we're plus 10 in Virginia, we're going to win in North Carolina.

24:12They really do believe that if she wins North Carolina, and of course those both close at seven. We'll know that by nine to 10 o 'clock tonight, she wins. And because other things will fall in the place for her. One of the things that's making this so terrifying for people is that the last two elections were far closer than the 2008 -2012 elections. So 2008 -2012 was like three or four states which were decided by tiny margins. But in the last two elections, it's like seven or eight states decided by tiny margins. So Michigan 2016 was taken by 0 .2. 2020 Georgia taken by 0 .2 % are as owned by 0 .3 % Pennsylvania in 2016 by 0 .7%.

24:59So these are a few thousand votes going in these directions. I want to throw a movie, actually, of course, just to raise the tone here, called Swing Vote, which is the entire US election is entirely tied. And it comes down to the vote of one person, Kevin Kostner, but not actual Kevin Kostner. He is playing. I'll make a move. Of course, of the Kevin Kostner. Yeah, like Kevin Gass, they're more than Trump, just so now. And even though this is telescope, not a whole lot more people than that. There are these tiny, tiny and plated margins. He's tiny numbers of people. And I was looking at him. How did he vote?

25:37Well, this is the thing. Okay, he, as I'll bear in mind, I'll let you all this on a plane a long time ago, and it's only a five out of ten. I would, he, the candidates have to, like, have 10 days to, like, go at him and try and change his mind, and they flip flop and they do all this stuff. And at the end, we just see him casting his vote, but we don't know what it is, but he has prepared his relationship with his daughter, which is the beeplot. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh. So, yeah, so we don't know what it is. No, we don't know what it is. Well, you know, tell it to the director.

26:06But there's a gray meme out there that is on TikTok. Dad, how are you voting? I'm voting for you. Yeah, it's nice. It's nice. It's nice. Just don't, don't, just, just, just, I just want to pin down this, this, on the path to victory. Let's go to Trump. Yeah. How does he, how does he get to the Trump wins Pennsylvania? I think he's, he hasn't won the whole ball game, as they say, but he's half the way there. He then needs just a couple of others. I think he gets Pennsylvania. Oh, so he's going, I think he's going to win Arizona personally. I don't know whether Anthony agrees with that. So I think he's going to win Arizona.

26:46I don't think they think they're going to win Nevada, but there's something they Trump, they Trump, but there's something called the Reed machine. Now, when you bring that up to Trumpers, they say, well, Harry Reed has died. And what's the Reed machine? Harry Reed set up a system there of tremendous amounts of democratic patronage and union officials, caterers, people that work in those casinos. They show up and they vote across the board Democrats. And so they are always underpulled. This is why that gentleman who does that big report in Nevada, even though it was 0 .3 plus for Harris, he, he called the state for Harris because of the Reed machine.

27:23Can I ask you a question, Anthony? So Nevada, Arizona, states like that, a lot of Latino voters. And the Puerto Rico garbage thing hasn't hurt Trump with them as much as in fact, we're going to be doing pretty well among Latinos, right? Compared with previous, the positive answers then. This is the thing we should say. This is the thing that Madison and Square Gardens rally that he had. And a comedian, a guy called Tony Hintzcliffe came up and he said that there's a great big island of garbage. It's called Puerto Rico. It's very funny. And it's been, I mean, they talk about you'll be in Guantanamo Bay too with you.

27:55I think they will, they never want to see that guy again. That is really, I think that's it. I think he's going to be on the wall like in the handmade sale. I actually think there's some Trumpers that actually genuinely like the fight in me is all in the Guantanamo being tortured. But I just tell you the different things that they'll do to people. But the thing about the Latino vote, I think he got really hurt at Madison Square Garden. So that, you heard it, wherever you guys say it in the UK. 42 % I'd be very surprised if he's still there. Because a lot of people looked around and say, wait, wait, what is he saying?

28:29See, and what happens with Trump because he is running on misogyny, he's running on racism, he's running on cruelty, he's running on anti -immigration. They're looking around saying, oh, he means them. He doesn't mean me. And now they're looking around saying, wait a minute, he actually means me. You see, and that's what's happening right now in the last 10 days of this election. I'm very worth looking at states like Arizona, because they're a sign of how quickly America's changing. So I was in Phoenix, Arizona a few weeks ago. It's a state where every decade, a huge number of new people are coming in.

29:04Some decades, there's nearly 50 -60 % of the population turning over. And there are in places like Phoenix, a lot of young educated people who are moving there. There's a massively difficult immigration story. But also, I was seeing a lot of people in Arizona who voted Trump last time, who are now going to vote Democrat. So I'm actually, obviously I'm endlessly over optimistic, but I'm going to challenge both Dominic and Anthony on that. I think Arizona also could go. Can I tell you a funny story about Arizona? Are you stepping caution on that? No, it's not. But this was from a Veepe guy. One of the guys in Veepe.

29:39One of the guys in all the gels you were mousy. One of the guys who was in Veepe were saying that he'd been speaking to people who were down in Arizona. And the Trump campaign discovered that there were these guys which have the yard signs and the bumper stickers and they're for Trump. They weren't registered to vote. So they were saying, and when they kind of approached them about it, they said, yeah, but it's like you guys say, you know, the elections are all rigged. There's no point. And they're like, well, yeah, but no, that's definitely true. But you need to vote in this one. And they're like, yeah, what's the point?

30:09Because they're all rigged. I'm like, yeah, no, no, they are. But they fought themselves into this ridiculous kind of paradox where this kind of philosophical paradox where they have to say, yeah, all elections are rigged and ready to be about, but can you definitely need to vote in this one? This is the kind of... I think it was in Arizona. And this thing about the swing states, don't know what's the absolute same. So 1980s, 1992, voted Republican, 1996 Democrat, then it went back to Republican 2 ,216 and last time Democrats. If it flips again, or you're involved. I am in trouble. Nevada, Arizona also examples these states where it votes one way with the president and can have a governor from the other party as well.

30:47So these are with states to look at. They may not... Not all of them are on the swing state list. Any state where you have a governor from a different party to the presidential vote at once worth looking at. So North Carolina is the most fascinating. If you don't mind me, just bring it up because you know, the Republican is an African -American. The calls himself a Black Nazi. He's up against a guy named Stein who's up 13 right now. The campaign, again, the Harris campaign saying, if he stays up 13, she's got an unbelievable chance to win the state of North Carolina. That's 14 electoral votes.

31:18And then she doesn't need to win Pennsylvania. She could just win Nevada and she's the American president. So when Biden left the race, there was one path for Harris on the 22nd of July. It was the blue wall. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And now she's got seven or eight different paths to get to the presidency. And so that's why I like her odds. And I also like her machinery because we know the machinery works. Hillary did not work the machinery the way the vice president is in her team. What was your sense in Pennsylvania? I've told them to be, I mean, I know it's the presuming you get picked up.

31:59They take you to the right places. You're seeing the people they want to see. But what was your sense of what's happened? What people saying? So my sense in Pennsylvania is that she's going to get the vote from the African Americans that she needs. And this poo pooling that the African -American men are not going to vote for. I did three town hall meetings over a weekend, 10 days ago, with African -American males discussing this topic. You guys may know who Charlemagne the God is. He's been out there doing calls for her. He's been out there promoting this stuff. And so my sense is going to turn out.

32:33But one of Shapiro's family members mentioned to one of my friends that the governor. Yeah, this is governor Josh Shapiro. One of his family members mentioned one of my friends today that they turn out in Philadelphia from the African -American community is way higher. They've actually been underpulled by the pollsters. Remember, she's African -American. She's an Indian Asian woman and they want her to win. And you can pretend otherwise, but they want her to win. And we've also got to remember that these governance Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitman, really key popular surrogates in key states. And they're on Kamala Harris's side that from her party.

33:13But it's the machinery too. Remember, the governor controls the state. He's putting the flex on everybody. You got to show up and vote for my candidate. What has happened to the Trump campaigns machinery, which is absent in many, many places? Maybe at the commercial break, I'll have you call Lara Trump. Okay, and just say, Hey, Lara, excuse me. Where did the money go? Because we're all trying to figure it out. I get the Republican candidates didn't get the money. Did you give it to legal fee? Do we give her a call? We can call. We can call. We can call. We got to word the money because I'm actually dying to know the answer.

33:42We're going to talk about both the campaigns after a break in a minute. But just going back to the electoral college finally, is there ever been any attempt to change it or is it impossible? No, there have been lots of attempts. I mean, it feels like a crazy system to me. I mean, all there's good and bad in all systems of that. So who tried to change it? Why did they fail? What were you interested at? I'm talking about the tyranny of the minority, where that was so important to the founders. So what people always frightened about was that so in the late 18th century, they don't want the constant, they want a balance.

34:18They want the majority and the minority to kind of be in a constant equilibrium. What they don't want is a particular group to have a 51 % plurality and to dominate everybody else and the voices of small states in particular to be signed. That's the great obstacle to changing the system. That if you're in a small state, you're in a Rhode Island or you're in Nebraska or whatever. What is the funny arrangement with Nebraska that they've got a funny arrangement with Nebraska? So Nebraska changed their system in a really interesting way in 1992 because they said, we're completely taking for granted, nobody ever visits Nebraska.

34:54And effectively because they've hived Lincoln Nebraska off from the rest of the state and that has its own electoral college vote because you don't have to do it in the way they do it. All you need to do is to send electors to the electoral college. It doesn't have to be winner -take -all because it's not winner -take -all in Nebraska, not winner -take -all in Maine. And Nebraska changed relatively recently because they wanted attention. They wanted to be visited by President. What can I mean, imagine how people in Pennsylvania do not want to be visited anymore. They've had quite enough. I've been able to invite them to read.

35:22They wanted to see me. Yeah, they wanted to see you. They were going to be there banging on doors. Since the rest of this family made you popular as opposed to this hate figure used to be, they definitely wanted to see you. But you were never a hate figure out. No, no, no, never. See the Donald Trump has just put out, was it on Twitter, on his social, on his truth social, that it's to stay in line, it's too big to rig. They're already talking about this idea that things have been rigged. We'll talk about that in a minute. Listen, I first of all want to thank Spotify. This building that we're in is Spotify's building.

35:54It's nice, isn't it? It's beautiful. Yeah, it's very, very beautiful. And we actually can see the statue of Liberty just from the University. I posted a beautiful picture of the statue of Liberty. Ellis Island, it is stunning. It's the best view. It's unbelievable. It's going to go fairly, fairly soon. We're going to take a quick break. Don't forget questions, hashtag, drip live, go into the chat in YouTube. But we're going to come back after the after the break. We're going to talk about the campaigns, Harris and Trump. See you soon. See you soon.

36:29This isn't ad from BetterHelp. At the moment, we're getting advice from everywhere. You just have to go on TikTok. Could be Alice's cold plunges. Could be my attempts to meditate or the digital detox that I'm doing in Colombia. But of course, one of the things that we know is that it can be incredibly valuable to talk to another human being, somebody who's actually been trained as a therapist to work through these ideas, calmly, objectively and professionally. And as the largest online therapy provider in the world, BetterHelp can provide access to mental health professionals with a very diverse variety of expertise.

37:05They've got over 5 ,000 therapists in the UK. They've helped more than 5 million people globally. And you can join a session literally at the click of a button. Change therapists anytime. It's obviously not about fixing you, but it's about hearing yourself clearly, maybe for the first time. So talk it out with BetterHelp. Our listeners get 10 % off their first month at betterhelp .com slash rest politics. That's better H -E -L -P .com slash rest politics.

37:39Welcome back to this live stream from the rest of the politics here in New York. We're going to be with you till midnight. We're then going to have a little break while we sort of go and find out what the hell is happening out there. And then we're going to be coming back for another four hour and let's think shortly at five hours after that. I want to talk about the campaigns. And by the way, do send in your questions on the chat on YouTube, hashtag trip live if you're on social media. But I want to start off with the two campaigns. First of all, I want to go round the table again, One Word Answers.

38:15Who has had the Better campaign in the round? Harris or Trump? Well, I think Harris brought a lot of energy in. I love the way he does One Word. I think it was the other one. You're in that. No, no, no, no, no, no. You're right. One Word is Harris. Okay. Merch. Harris. Harris. Okay. So we all think Kamala Harris is had the better campaign. I mean, I judge campaigns by how they whoever wins has the best campaign as well. Can I put two more sentences in the way he was killing it till I'm told Biden dropped out of the race. Killing it. I said, this guy's Susie Wiles and Chris Lasavida have got him organized.

38:52He's actually listening to them. He stopped listening them long ago. And Susie is leaking to Tim Alberta. If you read that article, it was laugh out loud funny because I know the person. Yeah. Well, she, they his main people. There is main people. He brought Cory in, but they tried to, they tried to rip Cory to shreds. But Susie basically told Tim Alberta that the morale is at an abject low and that they're trying to kill each other. And many people are killed each other. Well, you know, metaphorically, Aleister. But many people, if he wins or like, there's no way they could work in the administration because they're just too much bad blood between them.

39:31I'm slightly with you, Aleister, though, because in your half -joke, whoever wins has the best campaign. And I like to come, Stomencliffe, there are definitely historians and political scientists out there who basically say campaigns don't really matter. And they don't matter, right? And it's after the result, everyone's like, oh, Truman had a brilliant campaign or Kennedy had a brilliant campaign. Kennedy actually beats Nixon by this kind of sliver of a margin. Right. Exactly. And everyone then decides it's all down to an amazing TV debate where one on sweats and the other one doesn't. And in fact, it was almost certainly the right side.

40:03The debates don't matter by much. And I think campaigns must have destroyed himself in the debate. Mistakes matter. But Mr. Herb, if she had made mistakes at all, like I said, you know, in Labour, the Labour Party for the last election in the UK, they talked about the Ming Vars strategy. She's got like three Ming Vars, this balance on top of each other. She could not afford to make any kind of big mistakes at all. And I think she would have been really punished for them. But I agree that she just has to sort of get through it and not drop it. If you think about where she was in the summer and the early summer when Biden was still the nominee and people are like, oh, the Democrats could never choose Kamala Harris because everybody hates her.

40:41You think where how far she's come since then? Even if she loses, she will have thoughts, I think it's a pretty good thing. You were listening to the rest of the politics. You were listening to the rest as politics, you asked. We will not always. We said in the rise, she's being underestimated. But I want to leave you with this thought. I'd love to get your reactions to this. There is 90 minutes that took place on the 27th of June that could potentially end Joe Biden's career, but also Donald Trump's career. And Trump is kicking himself. God almighty, why did I let myself have a debate in June?

41:16Why did I wait for the more traditional times of September and October? Because they would have never been able to have recovered with the secondary candidate. Some of this. I've been involved in TV debates with different particular leaders and particularly with Tony Blair. It was always easy to have a very frank discussion with him if something wasn't great. Something like Trump, who Kamala Harris absolutely destroyed in my view. What did his people say to him after the debate? Yeah. Mr. President, you wanted the debate, you were fabulous. But I knew Trump didn't win the debate because he knows.

41:49He knows. He knows he lost. He knows he's lying about certain things. He used to walk up onto the campaign plane. We said, what the hell did you say that for? No, no, that's okay. If they say 25 times, they'll start to believe it. And we would just shake our heads and bimmon him. But he knows he lost. I'm going to tell you the tell because the vice president invited me. I helped her on debate prep and she invited me into the spin room and I was there in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia after the debate. When Trump came in. And on 11 o 'clock at night, he came in to see his buddy Sean Hannity and I got to ask you rhetorically that he'd do that on the 27th of June.

42:27He did not. But he did that night to tell Sean that he won the debate. He got smoked in that debate and she pressed three or four buttons on him. He went up like a bottle rocket. There was a fascinating film emerged today of Trump watching Kamala Harris' speech. And I think at the time of the convention, they actually said he didn't watch it. Clean another lie. But it was fascinating to watch it because he was just, he was basically with the people telling what to tweet and it was all angry and it was rage -fall and it was, but it was fascinating insight to him. And it gave me the feeling that he she was inside his head much more than I think he's managed to get inside.

43:05She's going at him and the thing about his rallies. That's what really offended him. That's what really gets people to leave his rallies. And that's what he's been doing. He's been going to these places like New Mexico and Virginia where he can fill a, he can fill an arena. But he wants to go there in the last days of these campaign, this campaign because everywhere else is half full and it's clearing while he's speaking. But if we just step back for one stage stage, all six out of the seven swing states were talking about, a swing states which were taken by Biden, held by Biden. What does that tell us?

43:38That tells us that commentators of viewing this as a very defensive campaign. They basically think that a swing state needs holding on to what Biden had. And that tells you that if this goes wrong for Harris, the first thing that will happen is people say they didn't choose the right candidate for the Rust Belt. They should have an open, they should have gone for Josh Shapiro. Why on earth did we get a Californian candidate? And why on earth did we get Tim Walls as the vice presidential candidate? He's not delivering a key key swing state here. So when we have Shapiro or Gretchen Wemmer as our vice president candidate, I'm, so someone like me who's optimistic about Harris that I'm very, very struck by the fact that they assume that all the swing states are holding on to things that Biden took rather than what I'm assuming, which is swinging into states that Trump held.

44:29I'm going to ask Marina this whole thing about celebrities and endorsements. And so last night, the Kamala Harris event, Lady Gaga was there. Some of the Hugh, will I am with? Yeah, it was. And meanwhile Elon Musk did an interview with Joe Rogan during which Joe Rogan, who's the second best podcaster in the United States behind Tom Holland. No, that is bad. Hello, I know. But do you think they matter? Do they have effect? Have there been too many of them? There has been an unbelievable amount. And by the way, I think some of them are like freelancing by the end. So I saw a video of Richard Gear.

45:12And I was thinking, nobody else would be interested to do this. He's just come out and done this. The only data we really have on this is that they and people are saying, oh, we're Taylor Swift, she's going to swing. That's the only thing that's been done is that they remind people to register to vote and they encourage their fans to sign up and do the last day of the election. For me, I actually think that one of the things that we know hurts the Democrats is people thinking they're the party of coastal elites blah, blah, blah. So I wouldn't, I think there's been a little too much to let me be a lot too much celebrity in the last few days.

45:48But it's not a major point in the stars and whatnot. But of course, they're part of the problem in the sense that they give the impression of, oh, this is a liberal metropolitan elite. I mean, it's got a long history. So the first big star to endorse presidential candidates, Al Jolson in 1924, endorse Warren Harding. But it doesn't always work. So Ronald Reagan, he had Jimmy Stewart recorded a campaign commercial for Ronald Reagan in 1976 when Reagan didn't even get the nomination. So they don't have this kind of mystic or mad. We are ginger spies in 1997. Well, that's what I asked to remember about this.

46:31And my sense is that although people admire celebrities and almost it's as stormsy endorsed generally. But my sense is that people are quite smart. They think, okay, I'm really, I admire stormsy, but I don't necessarily follow his views on politics. I mean, I noticed a friend of mine, Goss and Victoria Beckham, to tweet out that she was reading his book. And he was really excited. She used to say she'd never read a book. And he was really excited. And he thought, you know, she's got gazillion Twitter followers. And his Amazon sales went up by like 10 books, because presumably people aren't very interested.

47:05All of the people. He's more like Boris Johnson's. Definitely. And actually, there was, there used to be a thing where people set thought, oh, someone has got so many Twitter followers that if they say anything, then oh, my goodness, look at how many extra votes that will mean. This is absolute nonsense. And it doesn't mean anything. The only data we have, as I say, is that it does actually make people volunteer and it makes them register to vote. Yeah, I suspect we'll be talking more about Twitter and Mr. Musk sometime. We will have that whole, all a garic talk. But we hated the celebrity endorsements in 2016.

47:37And I think I told Alice through this. She, and I didn't like the concert that the vice president did last night because again, that comes across as a leadist in Pennsylvania. He was in a foreign field in 2016. And Hillary Clinton was with John Bond, Jovi and Bruce Springteen and Beyonce and Jay Z and the Wells Fargo arena. And I would have said to them, get those 20 ,000 people who are your volunteers out making phone calls exactly on the last night of the event. It was the most 26 days. She's not amazed that she was willing to do that. Yeah. Now, another of the very, very kind sponsors who are making sure that we can be fed and watered as we go through the nights and possibly even have a bed to sleep in at the end of it all.

48:22I'll say Lee and you know all about them. Well, Alice, they're actually introduced me to Sally and I love Sally. And so what Sally is, it's a fantastic software that you can download onto your phone and it's actually an e -sim anywhere you are in the world. And so you're going to avoid roaming charges if you use Sally. And of course, if you're with us, you can get a 15 % discount, but you have to go to Sally .com slash TRIPUS. And so Alice, I want to thank you for putting me in the Sally clientele. Excellent. Okay. Now, you've been sending lots of questions which we're very, very, very grateful.

48:58And let's have the first one. Here we go, WS. Given Poli -era's in 16 and 20, our pollsters deliberately predicting a tighter race to avoid the embarrassment, are they playing it safe to protect their credibility marina? What do you think? Well, I really agree with WS. And I do think that I've never seen, I mean, Alice, do you know it's really bad when the spin doctor becomes a story, but when the pollsters have been this much of the story, it's a form of, this is like a sort of necrotic sister. They feud like rappers. Okay, these guys, it's like their legs are... They're so beautiful. They're so beautiful.

49:35It was even on our podcast. We've never seen it. Well, I'd say something to Dominic, but I was just having a look at the polls over history. They got it wrong in 48 on Truman. They got it wrong. 52, they said it was too close to call when Eisenhower won a storming victory. In 76, they had Carter leading by 33 points when he actually won by two. They called it a dead heat on Reagan in 80, which he then won. 88, they had DuCarcus leading a bush by 17 points in the summer. I just wanted to point out. And had it as an election day, polls, right? Even on the election day, Harris was at a march of error in 88.

50:13Just do it. It's a historian. I love this research, because you've done that on your own. I've done that on my own. And where did you get all that? I got that from a historian. Mr. Amin Lickman. He's been union with the top. He's already well on what men is. I think he has brought together. It's a wonderful thing, particularly for someone like me. He basically says campaigns don't matter. Policies don't really matter. Ideology doesn't really matter. Loyalty to the party doesn't really matter. No, no. What really matters is, do you have an incumbent mandate? How's the economy performing? Have there been any major scandals?

50:51Have you got yourself an adultery scrub? The problem is that he is very, very good at predicting the popular vote, but he can get it wrong with the electoral college flips in the wrong direction. So just on it. Some of those polls would take months before I make it. Some of them. So you do carcass poll? It's like asking who's going to win the World Cup in three years time. Or at least. Or at least, Harris had you carcassed the march of error at the moment of the election. Secondly, I think the 13 keys thing is absolutely an utter gibberish. And Tosh. I think I'm a guy with, I'm with, I'm with, I mean, silver.

51:22I mean, somebody with Gany Common Sense. The idea that there's 13 boxes that you take and bang, you can predict the result. It's a very good PR stuff. It's about this nice woman, Anne Sellser, who's, no, she said, she does not, there's not this kind of dick waving thing when she talks about her thing. She said this, this week when she did desire a poll that everyone was completely shut because no one's really talked about I with the whole campaign. She said, yeah, my methodology seems way too simple, but it's worked so far. One day it might not work and then I'll be blown into little pieces and scattered across the city of D 'Amai.

51:54None of the men talk like this. Okay, I, I'm a big fan of Anne Sellser. Okay, next question.

52:02J. Editor 96. Oh, I think this was definitely for you, Dominic, which pre -internet US presidents would have done the best with social media? Abraham Lincoln. He's done the best for you. No, too long -winded. That's too long -winded. I wouldn't fit within the character, lemme think. Okay. He could do that in his own true social. Teddy Roosevelt. Teddy Roosevelt would be brilliant. Teddy Roosevelt. In Jacobi Blan, he'd be a bit vanilla. I think I'd like to, I mean, there is a Dick Nixon Twitter account, which is very good at capturing Nixon's rights. But Teddy Roosevelt does the kind of stuff that Putin does on Twitter, like, Bette Chessett out there.

52:33He do, he do stunts for me. Absolutely. He wrestled a bear in like in the Rockies or something. You don't think if George Washington took Wooden Keith for his teeth, that would have been a viral thing. It's not a weird thing that you give us so much grief about our teeth. But you're founding father. He had us. He had us. And we saw his teeth in the Smithsonian and we fixed our teeth. And they're almost cloppy and they are. Look it up. You get to say in his head like a pop and Jay. So you're asking about who's who's who's who's doing it on Twitter? On Twitter, I think TR is a real, you're going to agree on on Roosevelt.

53:13Yeah, we're always wrong about the 13 keys, but it's absolutely right. But it went about Calvin Coolidge. He was known for his breath. Silent cow. Yeah. He didn't say anything. Should we be serious about 13 keys from now? So what's happening there is a huge debate where all political scientists and historians, particularly political scientists, less historians are trying to come up with what's the key thing? Is it loyalty to party? Is it is user? So, let's say it's 13 things, which in a different combination matter. I agree with you. You don't want to turn it into a science. And I'm surprised he's trying to turn to science.

53:48But what he's basically pushing towards, and this is why I'm cheered up by it, is the idea of the American public in the end have a certain degree of common sense. And in the popular vote at least reflect how they think things have been going. The performance over the previous four years. And they're less sweet than you would have thought. But we can say something that we should all remember about America. And I hope it's true to 90s said that you know he was debating Douglas and we're talking about how smart the common American citizen is and Lincoln said you know they may not be smart academically, but they have a good nose and they can sense a rotting cadaver in their basement.

54:21And it's one of the more famous obscure things to say, but his point is that you know maybe there's more of us than them. Yeah. I guess what it comes down to what makes all elections they complicated is they are, first of all, they're always a referendum on the last four years. I'm particularly on the economics of the last four years. Are you better off than you were four years ago? But also and what makes them hard to predict is elections are a way for people to proclaim a sense of identity that tribalism, a kind of cultural issues. And that's the kind of stuff that Donald Trump did well on in 2016.

54:53Because of course the economy in 2016, the fundamentalist for the Rory, was pretty good. Yeah. But Trump won because he spoke to something at a mistake, kind of primal among people who felt left behind. My conclusion is that we're very interested in the podcast this week. He said that he genuinely thinks Trump is like the angriest man on the planet. He's angry about everything all the time and he's somehow connects with other people's anger. Did this be a lie? I do believe that and I think Van Jones got it better than anybody. He said he's a saying anger. He said it was a white lash. He said at the end of the day, there's a very large group of people that they see the name White House and they want a white person in that White House and they backlashed on everybody.

55:38Final question for now. Eric Baty. I was wondering if you could talk about the recent phenomenon of candidates appearing on podcasts as opposed to traditional media, especially given the popularity of Joe Rogan, Marina. I think this has been 100 % the podcast selection. It's really interesting. Yeah. Because things that they used to do, that used to be this kind of landmark campaign staging post like Kamala Harris would do a vote cover or whatever. That's nothing. That's like when she went on, like Alex Poole. She's right though. But it got no traction with people to talk about it. Things that media endorsements just seem like old hat.

56:12I think that I wish she had done Joe Rogan. Trump did Rogan and I think I'm rambled a little bit on it. But she should have done done Joe Rogan and this whole market of people, you know, the manosphere is listening to podcasts. But I was interesting how Trump performed and why he could see should be with his rambling style and whatever. He should be going on podcasts. But I tell you what. And I think, but literally, political podcasts, particularly, I like a personal growth medium. You know, it's all of you guys owning your mistakes and saying, you know, it's made me sad. It made me sad. I didn't like, you know, he can't do that.

56:46He would regard apologizing or saying he'd made a mistake as making him the smaller person. So I'm going to take the other side of Marina on Rogan because I understand that network around Rogan. Rogan doesn't like Trump. Yeah. And he'd not want Trump on his podcast. And Trump was trying to get on his podcast for three years. And Rogan said, no, because he really doesn't like Trump. It has to do with the whole WWE, the worldwide wrestling. Yeah. Musk convinced Rogan and must muscle Rogan and influence them. So when Rogan suggested he do his Trump, he doesn't. So let me explain what he does because I listen to the whole podcast.

57:18If I was on the Harris team, I just do not go on Rogan because he's tied to Elon Musk. And it'll be a fake complete. It'll make you look worse if you go on and he interviewed both of you and after we did that time to Musk. He's very tied to Musk. He's in Musk's network. Musk is on the show all the time. Lots of Musk's people are on the show. Joe and Elon Musk are very, very close. And it would have been a trap for her. He's so enormous. He's so huge. Who are other podcasts you could have done? Yeah. Well, in the Manus fear. Because otherwise, the Democrats are just saying we're giving up on this man.

57:54You could have done the All -In podcast. She could have done the rest of politics, UK or US. But going on Rogan, that's not man. I think we got done. He's just disappointed, young man. If the Democrats don't try and reach them that way, they're going to have to reach out to it. Or I'll think the saying that we've basically given up on these people. Conventionally, very quickly, I would never have given Trump three hours to talk in that way. There is something very unusual about the way that podcasts work. He's so like, he gives a say. He gives a say. There was only one moment on the podcast, this campaign, which I thought was really interesting.

58:27I can't remember the name of the podcast, but he said to him, oh, actually, I'm so barren in recovery now. And Trump said, oh, how's that going? And I realized that I'd only ever seen him ask another person about. That's why she, if you listen to how Rogan's thinking, he does much more of that new to expect.