In short
Notes on Podcast Episode 336: "TRUMP WINS" - The Rest Is Politics
Episode Overview In the second livestream of a special series covering the US presidential election results, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart discuss the implications of Donald Trump's election as President of the United States for a second term. They are joined by guests Anthony Scaramucci, Dominic Sandbrook, and Marina Hyde, providing a multifaceted analysis of the election outcome and its international ramifications.
Key Themes and Discussions
Election Results and Immediate Reactions
- Trump's Victory:
- Donald Trump has been re-elected, marking a significant comeback as only the second person in history to achieve this after losing a previous election.
- The results were quicker than expected, with Trump gaining crucial states like Pennsylvania.
Implications for US and Global Politics
- Concerns for Democracy:
- Alastair Campbell expresses fears about the impact of Trump's victory on American democracy, the Supreme Court, and international alliances.
- The potential for mass deportations and increased authoritarian tendencies under Trump are discussed.
- International Reactions:
- The election outcome is viewed positively by leaders like Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban, indicating shifts in geopolitical alliances.
Economic and Cultural Context
- Understanding Voter Sentiment:
- The discussion touches on the economic hardships faced by many voters, highlighting the Democrats' struggle to connect with working-class Americans.
- Rory points out that Trump's appeal lies not only in socioeconomic issues but also in how he resonates on a personal level with voters.
- The Role of Media:
- The media's reaction to Trump is critiqued, with suggestions that sensationalism drives engagement, often at the expense of substantive discourse.
Gender Dynamics in Politics
- Impact on Women in Politics:
- The election's outcome raises questions about the future of female candidates in the Democratic Party.
- Marina Hyde discusses the double standards faced by women in politics, particularly focusing on Kamala Harris's candidacy.
Future Prospects
- Challenges Ahead for Democrats:
- The Democrats must rethink their strategy in addressing the resentments of Trump voters while maintaining their principles.
- The potential need for a more grounded approach to address populism and economic despair is emphasized.
Key Takeaways
- Trump's Re-election: Marks a profound moment in American political history, with significant implications for domestic and international politics.
- Democratic Strategy: The need for the Democratic Party to engage with disillusioned voters while navigating the complexities of Trump's policies and rhetoric.
- Media Dynamics: The importance of responsible journalism in fostering informed political discourse amidst a highly polarized media landscape.
- Gender in Politics: Ongoing challenges for female candidates in the political arena and the societal implications of these dynamics.
Conclusion The episode encapsulates a critical moment in political history, reflecting on the ramifications of Trump's victory for various aspects of governance, international relations, and societal values. The discussion serves as a call to action for political strategists and voters alike to reconsider their approaches in the face of evolving political landscapes.
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Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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0:57Welcome back to therestus Politics US election live stream. I'm Alistair Campbell with Maurice. And I'm Maurice here. Yeah, off top it. That's going to be Jean -Marine Hyde and Dominique Sandbrook digesting the fact that it is now a fact, not speculation, not prediction, nothing. It is a fact that Donald Trump has been elected president of America for the second time, just the second person in history to come back for the second term in the way he's done after losing. Rory. Yeah, I'll wait. So very quick explainer. The evening has actually gone much more quickly for those of you that are just tuning in than the people expected.
1:37Many people thought because of 2020, more male votes coming and that this could drag on for days. It didn't a bit like 2016, we're in a situation in which basically the race was over by about half past two in the morning, our time about half an hour ago. And it really finished at the point at which it became clear that Donald Trump had taken Pennsylvania. There was nearly an hour and a half of hanging around as the votes got towards 95, 96, 97 % of the votes with him leading. And the reason why on this graph that's showing 267, and he needs 270 to win, but we're saying his one, is that it's almost inconceivable that they would not take Alaska.
2:16In fact, he's likely to take many more of the swing states. He could end up in a position stronger than he was against Hillary Quentin in 2016. I'm presenting this all in a slightly cheery voice. I am profoundly shattered, by the whole situation. And what we've been talking about over the last few hours is that this will have incredible impacts on Russia, Ukraine, where we're likely to see support taken away from Zelensky and Putin increase his position in Europe. We're likely to see huge consequences for American democracy, for the Supreme Court, Trump is a man who is threatening mass deportations, revenge against his enemies.
2:54It's been a profoundly unpleasant campaign. And the Democrats, who I felt had learned a lot of lessons from 2016, had turned a lot of things around. Sadly, on the night did not do enough to win. How are you going to handle this?
3:11I'm going to be a good sport. I've congratulated him and Elon Musk on Twitter. I'm an American. I want the guy to succeed. If he's going in a direction that I think doesn't make sense for the country, I think I owe myself in my family to speak out about it. But what I don't want to do is I don't want to be this bitter guy. He won, we lost, and then we throw eggs into tomatoes at the television. He's got the mantle of the presidency again. Let's hope he succeeds. Let's hope people reach him and say, hey, these systems are in place for a reason. He told John Kelly, why do we have the 20 ,000 troops at the DMZ?
3:57And when Kelly explained it to him, he backed off a little bit. We got to get people in place around him to get them to back off some of the really tough, nonsensical things. These systems that have been put in place over the last 80 years in America have helped make the world safer, more prosperous, and freer. And the stuff that he's talking about can potentially damage that system. Who's happy tonight? Vladimir Putin? That should tell you everything you need to know. Viktor Orban is happy. You think Kyrostor Murs happy tonight? He's like thrilled that this happened. I think he's probably thinking, oh, it's quite a tough being prime minister.
4:37But anyway, we're going to, how are you going to handle it? Well, I mean, I'll be plenty to write about. You know, this is, I mean, as I, we've talked about all sorts of things tonight, I do think, I do find the whole issue for women very, very difficult. And I find the idea, it's, to me, it's ridiculous that he's pushing ahead with this whole. And the whole abortion thing, particularly, I just, I kept thinking legally, how would I get around saying this? And I guess I would say that if he were a guest on this podcast now, I would say to him, how many, sorry, but how many abortions have you personally paid for?
5:13And you know what I'm sure he would reply none? I have paid for no women to have abortions. And we would all have to make our judgments about that. But the fact that he, half of the things he has done, he doesn't believe in it, and you know he doesn't believe in it, it's very difficult if you're on the other side of those things to sit there and watch him, you know, continue to sort of dispoem himself in a way that you fundamentally know he doesn't believe. I'm hoping he'll just play a lot of golf, but then the people who might be around him, the project 2025, this might be even worse. He said that he's speech of Mar -a -Lago, a dominant, this will be remembered as the day the American people regain control of their country.
5:49Yeah, yeah, we've got our country back. It's what populists often say when they win, of course. I think the interesting question, obviously, is not just what he does, well, I'm just the world, but his opponents have to do some really serious thinking. I was thinking about this one in the break. The Democrats have spent a lot of time talking about mega voters, but maybe next time they should think about talking more explicitly to them. And actually saying to them, this is what Peter Arden has been saying. Your resentment, your anxieties, you shouldn't be ashamed of them. We will make you feel more secure, happier, more prosper, we have the answers, we can deliver for you the world that you want in a way that Trump cannot.
6:31The problem is, of course, and the reason why populism is taking off in Europe is that it's really difficult to deliver. Demographies against us, economic facts are against us, productivity has been stagnant, media wages have been stagnant. And really since about 2006, GDP per capita has not been going up in most of these countries. And so the problem is that you are talking to people who's economic conditions suck. Many of the people voting for Trump, if you were somebody who was born in the 1950s, you will remember earning $15 now working in Michigan, in an automobile factory in the late 1970s, your daughter is now earning $15 now working in war months.
7:16So, war months. So this is a really tough world. And I think the problem with the Democrats says, yes, they can do inflation reduction nights, they can try to move some industry back. But the idea that they can recreate what Trump is pretending, which is back to the world of the 50s and 60s, where GDP per capita is growing by 3 .2 % a year. The glory day is of the great booming American economy. It's not doable. I agree with that, Roy. I agree that a lot of those jobs are never coming back. But I think it's not just economics. I think often what some of these people are so called left behind voters want is they want to feel respected.
7:52I think that's a that's Clinton, for example, made them feel that there was somebody who understood them, who spoke like them, who shared some of their values. Trump clearly sensed people a message that he understands them, that he's one of them, that he knows what's going on in their heads. And maybe the argument is that somebody like Eric Linsman or Kamala Harris doesn't, doesn't give them that sense. What, how do you handle that? This is what we're talking to Peter Hain about, he's doing this project on how progressives can tackle populism. I get that. Bill Clinton was brilliant at it. That's why I think he's such a formidable politician.
8:29He could speak to those people. But he didn't go out to people who were racist and say, I applaud your racism. I mean, that's what I feel is the really hard bit of this. And by the way, just like with you, the Nazi thing, I'm not saying all the people who voted for the Trump are racists. But I think that a lot of those who are racist are more likely to have voted for Trump than not. So I guess the question that I think the Democrats really have to work through is, how do they do what you were saying without having to go and play, you're saying earlier, play the same game? Yes, it's a tough one, isn't it?
9:04I mean, you basically tried to, there's clearly an element of the mega coalition that they will never reach and they maybe wouldn't want to reach. But they must believe, if they want to be a truly national party and a winning party, they must believe that there's a segment of that Trump coalition that they can take in the future that they can convert. They certainly must believe that the one in three ethnic minority voters who voted for Trump, they can shortly feel, you know, they must be able to see the irony in the fact that the more sort of lefty or woke or whatever, and you want to call it, that they've got the more of those people they've lost.
9:39Or women who vote for Trump? Yeah. Go to say that we were talking earlier about who'd be the first leader that he might vote. We still don't know that, but the first leader who's officially recognised the win and congratulated Donald Trump is Benjamin Netanyahu. Cause it histories, here's one for you, Dominic, history's greatest comeback. Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the greater alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory. Yeah. So, I mean, let's ask you a question. Yes, we do. So when the Brexit happened, it was a very large group of people in the UK that said, yeah, this is great.
10:20We had the Brexit. How long did, or maybe it didn't happen, but I think it sort of has at this point, how long did it take for people to realise, whoa, this is probably not an arreconatic interest, or did that never happen? Yeah. The polls suggest at the moment that the majority of people in Britain now think that Brexit isn't working for them, but that isn't the same as people wanting to rerun the election. And many of the things that Dominic said will still be true of those voters. They will still feel patronised, excluded, that Britain is working for them. They aren't listened to and that this isn't a country they have a stake in.
10:55And I just wanted to follow up on this interesting point, Alice's race. The extent to which Gaza has become very important to these elections. Now, Trump's victory has been very, very considerable, but he's been helped by the fact that there has been some interesting articles in New York Times, about 440 ,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, who felt Trump was much, much stronger on Israel. And paradoxically, Kamala Harris was hit in Dearborn, Michigan from the other side, where Jill Stein seems to have taken about 22 % of the enemy, from one of the key swing states, because Arab Americans were very uncomfortable with Kamala Harris's position on Gaza.
11:35So, I think this is something that we will see playing cross. One more final thing. This is a body to the way the world will view America. Do not underestimate this. I mean, people like me who were saying, I believe in this country. They are not going to repeat the mistake they made in 2016. This man is a clear monster and in the end, the good sense the American people will prevail. The decision of America to vote again for Donald Trump just feeds into the narrative of so many people around the world that this country is in trouble. Just a couple of, I agree on that. You have got eight years of data after that first election and we are here now.
12:25So, tell us just something about the country. This is my opinion. I don't want to say even more, but Trump also said that Robert F. Kennedy is going to help make America healthy again. Is that what it does not mean that the fluoride is coming out of the water because that was one of the, supposedly, that was one of the late on -vail policies this last week. You have always thought that these kind of third candidates have been part of the kind of mega -steve ban and plot, particularly RFK. I didn't think I know that was part of it. So he had, you know, not insignificant support. You then came up with Trump.
13:06I mean, there's no single thing that won the election for Trump, but that must have helped. No question. No question. And the Republicans do it better than the Democrats. The Democrats would never put up an all -right candidate to steal votes away from Trump. Look at what Nader did to Al Gore as we've talked about. Jill Stein did a number on Hillary Clinton. Jill Stein looks like she did a number on Vice President Harris. They're running the same playbook. You know, the other thing, you guys probably remember Cambridge Analytica. So they do. Okay. And so Cambridge Analytica, someone's going to study what Musk did because they didn't have Cambridge Analytica in 2020.
13:52They lost the election to Biden. But they did have Elon Musk and they did have access to the $44 billion musical instrument known as X, where they were playing notes out into the marketplace. And it worked for them. I don't know if there's a pun in here, but Emmanuel Macron, the person that Rory always calls your friend Emmanuel Macron. He said, congratulations, President Donald Trump. Ready to work together as we did for four years with your convictions and mine with respect and ambition for more peace and prosperity. I think the use of the work convictions is probably... That's just a lot of fun work in French.
14:31Conviction, yeah. Really? It's not... Listen, I think Emmanuel Macron speaks very, very good English. Right. I think we're doing... I think we need to know what conviction meant. I noticed Adam Biancoff has put, well, he certainly got some convictions. Listen, we haven't talked... We haven't talked at all tonight, really, which is extraordinary thing about the climate. What do we think this means for climate crisis? I was talking to a... I actually was the other weekend, I was with a marine biologist and we were talking about the election. She's American. She worked with the government. She was like, I can't.
15:06We were banned from using the term... She's a marine biologist at a very senior government level. They were banned from using the term climate change in the department and she said, I can't go back to that. I can't... I just can't get that level of reality denial. I can't deal with it, but it seems that she will be going back to it. Yeah, it's international cooperation on climate change. It's going to be very, very difficult. I mean, frankly, impossible in the next four years. How well... How different the world would have been if we hadn't had the hanging Chad's drama and Alan Gawrod? Well, how different the world would have been if in 2016 Joe Biden had run against Donald Trump, because I think Joe Biden would have won in 2016.
15:50I think so. Abe is very close. I mean, it was close as it was in terms of there. There was a few votes that swung it. So if Biden had won in 2016, you know, Trumpism, the roots of Trumpism would still be there. The resentment, the anxiety, all of those things, but the character, the main character would have been beaten. So climate is absolutely central. US is 13 .5 percent of all global emissions, but more than that, the US is absolutely central to all these sorts of international cooperation. Climate is probably the most important example, but it's also true on international security. It's true on the Middle East peace process, it's true on Sudan, it's true on Russia Ukraine, it's true on China Taiwan.
16:35And Trump is fundamentally an isolationist. He doesn't give a monkies about what's happening around the rest of the world, hence make America great again. And for climate, this can quite easily put the entire move back four years or more. We can expect him to be drilling more, extracting more coal, investing less than renewable energies and green technology, putting less subsidies behind all this stuff. And once the US starts doing that, what incentive has China, which has got 30 percent of global emissions, and India, which has got 7 percent of global emissions, really to go along with this stuff, we have to hope they will, but why?
17:13Yeah, we're getting ready to do your final NordVPN of this session, but I just want to read out what Keir Starmer has said. Congratulations, President Electrum, on your historic election victory. I look forward to working with you in the years ahead. As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defense of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise, from growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK, US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come. So what do you think of that, Marina, is a piece of writing, a piece of drafting, a piece of diplomacy?
17:47Well, I mean, it's quite bland, isn't it? It's less obviously funny than Macron. It's longer, so it's trying to say less. I mean, they've all got to do this now. They've all got to do this, they've all got to pretend, and they've all got to be asked about their previous comments and say, yeah, you know, I was, you know, being, I don't know what they say, would you, I mean, would you say if you said someone's a Nazi? What do you think, David Lamy? I mean, I actually think David Lamy is doing a pretty good job as a front secretary, and I think he's been a big part of trying to get close to Trump, but do you want to set a few things?
18:19Anthony's view is that provided you'd bend the knee, you can say whatever you want, provided you then humiliate yourself and for not to help forgive you. That's all you got to do. Yeah. If Trady Ansking got to wait. I'm, all your America's Hitler. I love you now, no problem. But now you're in the wood. You're in the wood. You're in the wood. He's going to go on, they all go on to the wood, you know, eventually, but the thing about mosque is, it's so interesting to me because he's so brilliant and so successful in so many different ways, but he got snubbed by Biden, and he got snubbed by the administration.
18:52And by the way, he voted for Biden. Okay. He told everybody I'm a lifelong Democrat. I voted for Biden. I would love to get, excuse me, President Biden, why did you snub mosque? You didn't invite him to the electric car summit. You didn't invite him to the rocket tree summit. What was the deal with snubbing him? Also, she could have made a move to talk to him. She elected not to do that. So, so what are you actually doing? You know, you're, you're talking to Liz Cheney. How could you not pick up the phone and call you on? Marie, you're final. Absolutely. Well, a huge thank you to NordVPN, who have made this amazing livestream, which I hope you've all been watching, for many, many hours, possible.
19:39NordVPN is something that you can put it's an app you can put on your phone or your laptop. And it protects you from malware, from unsafe websites, from viruses, from attacks, from people surveilling your data on the internet. It's a great thing to travel with if you're opening up your laptop in an airport. It's something that you can sign up to and get the best discounts available on NordVPN .com slash restless politics. I'm going to use that as my as my sneaky attempt to just just get into this debate for a second. Just before you do that, can I just do a lash out at please for questions with take a few more questions before the end of the of this second of our livestreams.
20:20We've got another one later on. And remember, you're just going to the chat on YouTube or hashtag trip life. So, given we're on technology, give more an Elon Musk, AI policy. Elon Musk is profoundly skeptical about the direction that artificial intelligence is going into. He's very, very angry. He funded chat GBT and then it's set off in direction. He's the main signatory and initiator of a lesser calling for much more restrictions on the development of artificial intelligence. And so, him being close to Trump and getting in will be seen by Microsoft, by Google, by Facebook and others who are pushing ahead with AI as a real threat to the business models that are trying to develop.
21:00I noticed that we're going to be bright. Go to brave. I know you've got very strong views on this. Yeah, I think it's the beginning of an oligarchy. I think they've decided that Trump is their guy. He's a transactionalist and we can get things from him and we're heading for a trillion dollars each. One of the ways to do that is to siphon it off of a government. You're not getting to a trillion dollars on private enterprise, but if you can join yourself with the government, you might be able to do that and they've looked at other oligarchies around the world and they like it. And these guys are from South Africa, so they're used to it.
21:35They don't, it's not like they were raised in America. They're used to it. One thing about Reagan, and it's in Max Boots, but he had a Washingtonian sense for departure. He was there to serve. He did his eight years. He wanted to cut brush and sand a barber. He left. Okay, and then what did Washington say? He cited general sense and at us. So I'm going home. I don't need this. And I'm not going to make my kids some aristocrats. That's not what America is supposed to be. Trump wants that. He's been very, very clear about that. Okay, I got you quick break. I'm going to come back. I think we should talk about race.
22:14I think we should talk about the role of race in this debate where we are on race in American society. So don't go away. We may be wilting a little bit, but a lot of you, presumably just had a very nice sleep in you. You're getting up to face this extraordinary news that Donald Trump is going back to the White House. See you soon.
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23:46Welcome back. Rory's eating. Not on our own. And he doesn't like it. I don't like the crunchiness. Yeah, but more serious things have happened. Donald Trump has just become completely obsessed with contrast. But when I'm trying so hard to contain, well, I'm actually thinking in feeling inside and project a sense of balance and etc. That could be the straw. That could be the thing that tips me over. Now listen, we got half an hour to go in the second of these three live streams that we're doing. Just a couple of points on the scale of this. The Trump's performance in Iowa, where there was this poll at the weekend that got the Democrats very excited.
24:22It looks such a strong for any candidate in the state since 1972. Hi, oh, it's the best of any candidate since 1988. That poll that I mentioned was out by 17 point. And that's the results of the great story. Yeah, it's going to get scattered over the city of the mind like she feared. And Trump's performance in Florida is the best for any candidate since 1988. So there's no getting away from it. This is an incredible political comeback, success story, called it what you will. And even though we can all say as we do the whole time, the guys that lie, the guys are racist, the guys are misogynist, etc.
Read the full transcript
24:57It is an incredible thing that he's pulled off here. So I think I just like this is something Anthony and I'm talking about just during the quick break. I think all of us with the exception of Dominic need to sort of reflect a little bit. Well, what did we get wrong about the whole? What did we get wrong? I think Peter Heimingert's an interesting insight into this. And it goes to what Dominic was saying about maybe being a bit patronizing because we don't think a certain way we can't understand by other people. But what do you think we got wrong? Well, I mean, I got it totally wrong. I thought Kamala Harris would win and I believe she would win comfortably.
25:30And I thought it would be over quite quickly. Despite the polls showing 50 -50, why? Well, I can repeat my arguments. They were technical arguments about young African American voters and how they would turn out her ground game, the money, the performance of Biden's administration. It's all turned out to be wrong, completely wrong. I didn't think, though, that I was fundamentally wrong because I'm patronizing towards people. I never felt that. I never felt that as a politician in Britain. I didn't feel I was patronizing towards my breaks of voting constituents. I think I was wrong because I'm an optimist.
26:06And I hate the idea of being right pessimistically. I think you can be a false prophet and right. You can align yourself for the worst instincts of humanity. You can assume that everything's going to hell in the hand to us. Or you can hope. And my bet on Kamala Harris was a bet on the American people. It was a bet on the democracy. It was a bet against populism. And it was a bet on hope. So are we wrong to think that that can work? That's the really difficult thing that this sort of confronts us with. It's so difficult because of course, I felt in a very minor way in Britain seeing Boris Johnson take over.
26:45This just proves everything that I feared, that the bad people win, populism triumphs. And I've spent a long time trying to pull myself together and see moments of light and inspiration. You've just written a book inspiring young people to get involved in politics. We have to believe that the Middle East peace process can still be solved. The two -state solution is possible that peace can come back to the world and the world can get back under a better trajectory. But tonight is a very, very devastating bodyglow. This is 25 % of the global economy. This is the world's largest, oldest, most mature democracy that has just faded for a multiple convicted fellow.
27:23Well, what do you want to answer your own question? What do you think you got wrong? Well, I get... You told me that when we introduced in that podcast, you said, I guarantee Donald Trump will let me be president again. Yeah, right. You're wrong. Well, I got wrong. It's competition for sure. I thought Biden was up to the job. He wasn't, and they didn't give her enough time. So I got that wrong for sure. The second thing that I got wrong is that I didn't understand Trump's hold on these people because I thought there was a breaking point. My dad had a great expression. He was a construction worker.
27:58Here's a rock. You hit it one time. It doesn't break. 500 times it doesn't break. You hit it the 1 ,000's time. It splinters into a million pieces. You don't know which one of those things broke the rock. And I thought, okay, Trump is just too much that he's doing that's wrong. It's too much that he's doing that's un -American. The rock is going to shatter. I actually thought the Puerto Rican moment was a potential sign of the rock shattering. So I got that wrong. But the last thing that I'm worried about, and this is something hopefully domicile address, do we have to break the world in order to fix it again?
28:34Because we broke the world in 14 to 17 or 14 to 19. We had a terrible treaty. We went back to watch 20 years later. We broke the world again. We came out of 45 with the right treaties and the right architecture. And I'm just wondering now, is it going to be in a situation where the world has to break again in order to join people and get it fixed? That's a pretty terrifying thought. The world might break in because we don't address the kind of crisis or because we don't address the refugee crisis, etc. What do you think we got wrong? I think I said something about me because I have honestly spent like 18 months, two years saying to my husband pretty much every single day, he's going to win.
29:16This is all just a huge cope. This idea that she's like selling joy. I mean, show me an election that's ever been won like that. I would say that every day. 997 Labour. Okay. Things could only get better. Okay. And I said this and honestly, the last three days, maybe I part as an media and there's something about that. I'm making a sort of slight joke about the fact that I watch CNN and it just seems to be like a proxy for the Harris campaign. And there is something about America's news market being so completely, so I am making a slight serious point. I fell for it. I fell for thinking, oh, yeah, maybe I'm not, and I didn't look aside.
29:58And I thought his campaign is being chaotic in the final days and hers is sort of on message and she hasn't made any mistakes. And I actually failed to trust my instinct of sort of, and I don't know why. I failed to trust my instinct of 18 months, two years. Yeah. Do you know what, Donnie, you were saying earlier and I was saying to the team and to really early about when I went on Morning Joe on MSNBC the other day. And I came away, it actually was a moment where I came away thinking, we're just in a ridiculous world because it was, you know, they're obviously very good journalists and lots of, but one, there was no real news being told.
30:34It was just endless ventilations of the same opinions about how awful Trump was, about how awful Vance wants. And of course, then you go to the other side and turn on Fox News and they're doing the opposite. And I do think that this I was asking you later, what the latest, what the legacy media, how they handled this because I think that the, I don't see how we get sort of sensible rational democratic debate if the media just become extensions of the players that the public are meant to be looking at to make a choice. It's all partisan. They're ever want to relatively small player. Nobody's got more than 25 % and they're all very polarized.
31:13Whereas in the UK, the BBC 60 % of people consume some form of BBC news in a week. You know, you would say, oh, if the BBC hadn't been invented, you would never invent it now. Oh my God, now's the best time to invent something like that where you can slightly return to some form of shared objective reality. And I know people will have criticisms of the BBC and all sorts of things like that. But this is, have a look at this news market. Absolutely. And see the difference. And also, can I say, I know Anthony is, spends a lot of his time with Katty Kaye with the rest of his politics US. But this is also the time where the BBC should be investing in developing a bigger market here because it's why it opened for the sort of journalism they do.
31:56Instead of which they get rid of hard talk and cutting the budgets and such a dominate. So you, you, you, you, you, you as the person who got it right, what do you think we got wrong, Dominic? So it goes to something that I often think about politics, which is that people who are very, I mean, you do a politics podcast as does Anthony. I think the one thing that people who are very interested in politics get wrong about politics more than anything else is that most ordinary people are not interested in politics. Do not follow it. Do not care. Do not understand or do not care to understand. I'm not saying they're capable of understanding, but they don't choose to follow and to immerse themselves in the minutiae.
32:37So all the things that we kind of offer before we recorded this were saying this will do for Trump. This will kill him. You know, all these, a lot of people don't know about those things or don't care. And as far as I can tell from the exit polls, the single biggest issue for people was the issue that is almost always the single biggest issue in every election, not just in America, but everywhere in the West. Well, which is the economy, are you better off? And I think the inflation, a couple of years ago, clearly really hurts the Democrats because Harris was tarnished by that. So all the things that we think should have destroyed Trump, quite a rico garbage blah blah blah blah blah.
33:19A lot of people probably weren't even aware of those things. I think at any given moment, most of all these news channels were talking about it for 24 hours. Right, because most people aren't watching those neutral states. They have lives. They're out doing, yeah. I think that's the one thing. I always think this about all political history. It's the one thing that people get most wrong, because people who write the history care about politics. Because it's what Tony Blair's absolute pieces of genius as a politician is he understood that all the time and always used to say to us, you lot need to understand people are there aren't thinking about us the whole time.
33:53When they do think about us, they've got to be thinking about us on our terms, not our opponents. Can we just, I said it before the break, talk about race. Manthit, what do you think this says about race in the US? If he goes through with some of the stuff that he's talked about, how difficult has that become? And where are we on race relations in the US? Well, some of the things that they want to do is they want to make the democracy less of a democracy. If you read the Constitution in Russia, it's very flowery language, the North Korean Constitution says some of the things related to the rights that the British have or the Americans have, but they just changed the rules.
34:37They've made it so that one person has more power than the other people. He wants that and they'll be spending time figuring out a way to do that and with that, there's a big question of race because the country is changing. When we get to 2044, there'll be less white people in the country than other people. It's a really fewer. They'll be fewer. Wait, you should answer them. I can barely speak English. The guy brings me on the thing for eight hours. I say one tiny syllable, Wolf Kee, and he's like a verbal proofreader at the guy. But on the point that I'm making, these people will be like, yeah, we're going to have a democracy, we're going to make sure the white people run the thing.
35:31I know you guys think I'm crazy, but when it starts to happen, remember all the writings that Churchill did in the 30s? He's crazy, he's crazy, he's crazy, and everything started to happen. Then people looked around and said, oh, okay, he may be on to something in terms of what these things are. If you study history, guys like Trump, the stuff ends badly. It starts out like this and the market's rallying. We're not doing it on the show. It's not the rest of the money, but the day was up a thousand. Bitcoin's at an all -time high. Small cap stocks are through the moon. Whatever Elon must private equity valuation and space tax, yesterday it's got to be up 20 % today.
36:16So we should take Trump more of his word. He's just said in his speech, his acceptance speech in the verdict comments that he's going to change things and he's going to change things fast. And he's on the record saying what he wants to do. He wants to do mass deportation of immigrants. He wants to fix Russia Ukraine in one day, which basically means giving Kiev to a Putin puppet. He does not want to do anything to support women's reproductive rights. If anything, he's trying to empower people who are trying to make it more difficult for women to have any control of their bodies. And that's just the beginning of where he's going.
36:54So I think all of this stuff, Project 2025, that reforms the civil service, the stuff he wants to do with the seem green book, but basically his total contempt for the root of law, for due process, for American democracy, for international alliances, with liberal global order, all of this stuff we should now expect. And I don't think we should get into this complacent world, which you can often get into saying, oh, well, maybe he's just going to be laid back, put good people around him and will all be fine. I think he's had four years to think about it. He's impatient, wants to make his mark on history.
37:25You can that. Trump got spared my life for a reason. Let's take a few of your questions. And by the way, thank you to all of the people who stayed up with us through the night. Thank you for all the amazing questions. I'm sorry we've not been able to do the more, but let's take a few more. You're welcome, Alster. Thank you for thanking me. I'll thank you later, but I don't know, taking you for an ice meal or whatever. We'll just work on the extra edition treaty. Okay, don't worry. You're going to be safe. You're going to be fine. Is that Jude and Joanne? Jude and question for Dominic. Are these extraordinary times, and is this just another turbulent time in history full of them?
37:57They're not extraordinary times. History is always turbulent. I mean, which point period do you have? There are very rare moments, the 1990s, I guess. We only think that because the 1990s were kind to us. You don't think that you're a wonder or you're Bosnian. Or Russian. You think the 1990s were a total catastrophe. They're 50s, obviously, but again, you think that if you're British and American, but not if you live elsewhere. So history is full of also. History is the story of chaos. There's a question.
38:30William Chong can Biden do anything now as a kind of lame duck to do something to have Europe? He said violently. I think he's the lamest of lame ducks. Now it's a catastrophe. It's bad being a president of election. It's unbelievably bad if you're Biden with Trump coming in. Especially if he was vice president of the candidate. Biden helped Trump on the transition. Does Biden show up at the inauguration? Does Trump pay any attention to the advice he gives him on the transition day? He ignored everything that Obama did. Repaired any. Marina, somewhere in Washington, presumably in the White House, Joe Biden and Jill Biden, watching the TV and...
39:07Very angry. What do you think will be? The talk is that they're very angry and they've been angry all the way through. And they think that this wouldn't have happened with him. As we said earlier, I don't believe that. He is a double lame duck. He's already not really the president because he's withdrawn. Trump is coming and his vice president hasn't won. It's quite hard to think what he could do that would be irreversible now in this period of time. I honestly can't conceive of something. It's just too late. He's not a lame duck. He's a duck with no legs. Yeah. It's very harsh images. I feel so sorry for him, but I do think he had to go.
39:52Let's take another question.
39:55Ha, Halas Baker. What does Kamala do now? She has to stay as vice president. As to certify the election. She has to be the one sitting there saying Donald Trump is really elected. That's going to be a hard moment. My God. But does she have a political future? Could she run from governor of California, let's say? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But the question is whether you'd want to. I mean, I think there's something very interesting about the psychology of defeat. Donald Trump could easily have said the election was stolen, but hey, well, I've let somebody else do. I'll go and play golf. I'll go and make my do whatever.
40:34He came back. She could. It depends whether some people just take their feet and go away. Other people take their feet and think, right, I'm going back. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I think I think I think I think I think I don't think that they feel that there's a huge amount of love for her and she should be marine of it. How do I look? You look, you look so to know. You might like be queen and papyons. Yes. Exactly. But no, but I don't get the sense they would think this is so awful. What happened to her? We want to return her somewhere and give her a governorship.
41:12No. But they don't, but they almost don't need to. I mean, remember Biden lost repeatedly and ultimately became president. People wrote him off again and again. I mean, he was like an embarrassment in the 1980s when he was trying to. I think it's different times. Yeah. And but you're point earlier, Marina, I saw this. I think she has been subject to some pretty extraordinary double standards. You know, the debate, she absolutely trammed him. But if you think of some of the things that Trump has said and done in recent days and weeks, I mean, just take one. Do you know what, if I talk about Trump, I start to do that.
41:45This is how it gets in your brain. Good, like that. The thing with the microphone. Yeah. And did you see the microphone thing? You were in Australia? Well, I know how to put this politely, but the microphone wasn't working as well as he's rallies. And he essentially was sort of it looked like he was performing oral sex on the on the microphone. It's the imagine of counter of Joe Biden had done that. But he's this is where he is unique. He gets away with stuff that no other politician because that is price ten. And this is a comparison with your favorite politician, Boris Johnson, when these things are kind of priced in.
42:18Then, Americans, do you get you don't get ironies? But do you get the ironie? Yeah. Well, I'm still working out of the other insults, related. I remember the person who said less, less, less, fewer. Yeah. Yeah. I got it. Bro, do you see, I mean, I got to listen more carefully to your podcast. I see, do this the verbal proof really? Yeah, yeah, he does. I've seen it. It does lead us to every, I mean, you and I knew the talk about problems. I have it on high speed. Maybe you should do a podcast the rest of the way. We should do it. We should do it. We should do it. We should do it. I think on both of you really good at history.
42:49Yeah, we could do that. Yeah, I think we could. We'd be great. We'd welcome the competition. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I was, so you know what, though, I'm going to say something. I think she and Doug M. off, they set sail and she moves the Brentwood and she hangs out in LA and he returns to his law practice. That's my guess. You think she doesn't have that she doesn't want to stay right? I don't see the path. And I guess the question for Marina is, did she hurt the cause for women presidential candidates? We've now over two. Oh, for the Democrats, yes. For the Democrats, yes. And the last day, I mean, we were talking earlier, we were saying that the Republicans will have a woman before the Democrats for definite, just as in the sub -depot in the UK.
43:32They have had several and Labour have had none. But it's, I find it very difficult. She, she didn't really put a film wrong and you can say, as you said, you know, you can't add what, what was your question about what God had given you couldn't add? You can't put into somebody what God left out. She's again to it. She, I mean, you know, it's ridiculous to sit here saying she did her best, she did it whatever. But I think you have to say that it's pretty sexist and there's a lot of sexism in this country. And I know you've said that before. So I feel I'm slightly covered by saying that. But I think you've seen it again.
44:06Of course there is. And today, your final, final saly read is upon you. Oh my God. Oh, you're pleased here.
44:18Okay, guys, this is super important. So please listen up. Sally, thank you, Sally, for sponsor. I guess tonight eight hours with me, Alistair, Rory, Marina and Dominic. God bless everybody. But it's more important you listen to me about Sally. It's a digital version of a SIM cord. You can download it on your phone and you can roam the earth without roaming charges. Imagine that all the money that you save with Sally. If you go to our website and this would be saly .com slash trip US, you get a 15 % discount to store your journey with Sally. And I'm going to tell you something. You travel around the world and you've been making phone calls to people and you'd be very smug about the savings.
45:02And Alistair and I are quite cheap and we're enjoying it. Speed feels so. I mean, you're my self. You say, I travel in coach from Glasgow to London. I just want to make sure everybody knows that. Never seen anything like it. You said that I'm an ambitious new old reach, New Yorker. You said this is a limousine. You said here, here's Starber put out. I'll always tell you. I've just got Anthony Albanese from Australia, friend of mine Australia sent me his and it's all the same themes seem a bit longer. And you know, this is what you're going to do and then you're going to try and get the phone call and so forth.
45:37Now we're coming to the end of this and some of you you're leading on you. I am. I'm going to do the whole thing. I'm going to get a plane back to Britain. Okay. Dominic, you stay for later or you. I've got to write a rest of this history show because we're going to live tour. So people have enjoyed this. Yeah. And they want to connect to Australia. So that's the old. That's what's the old. San Francisco and Chicago. You're coming to Dominic. It'd be right about history. Yeah. It's right to think. I always see. I feel like he was the LA Dodgers tonight. If you don't mind me saying so. I don't feel like I was like the New York Yankees.
46:09I mean, I lost that. Yeah, what does that mean? The LA Dodgers are the World Series champions. Oh, come on, the friend. The Dodgers competed against the Yankees are two fun teams. Yankees lost miserably. But I think you hit it out of the park tonight. You nailed a lot of things that were happening in the country. And either I chose to ignore it or I hit an override switch because I was too close to the blast zone. I was one of the 40 people that were in that situation with them. And so how terrible it was. And I said, you know, it's important for me to just get that surgeon general's warning label out, but you saw it.
46:43I didn't. Oh, yes. What team is Marina? She's the realist. She's like the she's she's the city. She was. She was she was she was wincing at the thought of his victory. But in her her her heart told her she wanted Harris to win. But her mind told her it was Trump. She's the realist at the table. And it's not even with tribal. You, you're the headmaster. I mean, let's just face it. Okay. I mean, you know, you're just whacking us all over the street. And Rory is the disillusionist. If you don't mind me saying so. The disillusioned. Yes, he was disillusioned with this idea that Trump was going to lose and Harris is going to win.
47:22And we just have to own that. You know, I think I think it's better for us as analysts and pundits to recognize that we got certain things. You don't think you got wrong. I got it totally wrong. I got it totally wrong. But on the other hand, I'm sort of weirdly, I'm so devastated by this result that I'm paradoxically kind of proud that I was backing backing Harris. I mean, I was when I went for war cuts. I just here we're right next to the and I was reminded of the night in 2016 going for a walk in the dark in London after I heard that Trump had won the first time. It's just that kind of sense of where I felt the same.
47:59These kind empty streets, the darkness, what if this happened into United States? And I, I want to believe in fairy stories maybe. And I wanted to believe it was impossible for Trump to win again. Well, Rory, fairy stories are what you reach your children at night. They don't have a real life too often. Um, we're here now. Listen, you know, I'm not a source sport. I wish him well. I can congratulate it on Twitter or not sucking up to him. I just he's going to be the American president. It's important that he does well. And so I hope he does. Bay is a vicious. What's that? He's got fascist tendencies.
48:36And if you, you know what, Dominic's going to invite me on the rest of his history when he's going full on fascist. Yeah. And while I remember this conversation, that's a date. Well, it's a date. All right. I think, I see, I see, I see, I think you're done firmly. I don't know what that means. Exactly. Good. Yeah. Excellent. Some of us. He does know it's, you know, it's fine. It's fine. Don't worry about it. I think you're both Jackson. Okay. How's that? That's good. I know. Yeah. I know. I, um, I think also another piece of history. Yeah. We're not going to bring in another question. I thought we are going to bring in another question.
49:04No, Rory, I'm, I'm, you're in church. I'm calling the instructions. Okay. I'm going to bring it to people in my ear. Very good. And I'll just do as I'm told. Okay. I'm being, um, okay. Let's have a question because it's about the economy. And that's what I was wanting to talk about anyway. Let's have the question.
49:26Mr. Mochioly, can you guys discuss how this affects the economy, please? Well, that's a big, big question. What is tariff stuff? Is he going to do that? So Wall Street thinks this is phenomenal for the economy. Wall Street thinks that this is de -regulation. Well, street thinks that the tax rates are going from 21 to 15 percent, which is obviously going to create a deficit explosion, but Wall Street sitting here, uh, racking up the stock market. Uh, and so Wall Street likes it, but I just will say this to you, if he imposes the tariff, it's going to eat up the disposable income of the poor. If he does things like he's talking about deporting massive amounts of people, it will crush the GDP.
50:07It'll hurt our tax base. And if he destabilizes our alliance, don't underestimate the safe shipping lanes around the world. And all the good things that we benefit from, from the footprint that America and its alliance has around the world. And he will. And then I'll have great consequence on the U .S. economy. And he will think he has a Monday fit. Anything he wants to know. And he's got the immunity shield. It's a real problem. Uh, the prosperity that we've seen really over the last 30, 40 years has been built on free trade. Free trade is slowing tariffs are going up. If he follows through what he's talking about, we've already got 110 percent tariffs on Chinese election vehicles.
50:45The tariffs he's talking about with China and with the rest of the world will have a crippling effect, I think, on the U .S. economy and the global economy. 20 percent on everything. A 20 percent sales tax. No, it's, it's very one. If he does half the things he says he's going to do politically, economically, internationally, the world is going backwards. Marina, just how are you going to? Can I just say one thing really, he's dived to bullet physically. He dived to the bullet legally. He's one of the luckiest people that has ever left. You got to just call over what it is. Yeah. Marina, how does, um, well, the me, do you think the media, uh, another media doesn't mean it.
51:24There's even almost no, you the media media, but the media is you and I understand it. Do you think they'll cover him differently second time around to first and second? I thought he got away with so much in the first term because the media gave up kind of trying to just hold him properly to account. Yeah, but and they said that when he was running again, that they were going to do everything differently, but it's happened again. So I don't, what I will tell you is that he is good for business. Okay. He, I'm a whether or not you like it. He drives subscriber numbers for various, you know, the New York Times for the Unhuged Subscribed Numbers.
51:54Everybody, he, people want to read about him. He is as he would say ratings. And whether they want to hate read about it or they want it or, you know, they love to read about him, he will, he will be good in terms of sort of clicks for the media. And because it's constant drama, you know, there's like four news he makes. It's so loving one news every day. I know the drama is one of the reasons people might want to reject him. But I think people have become addicted and to some extent to dope him in. They look, they want to look at their phone and they almost want something dramatic to have happened.
52:25And when, in the years when Trump was in the White House, you could guarantee like four times a day, something crazy would happen. Whatever Steve Bannon said, you know, flood the zone with shit, well, there would always be these things that like these absolute head -cut line grabbing, dopamine, sparking things occurring. And I think that actually as a culture, we're really quite addicted to whether or not we could admit that. And I'm, you know, I believe myself in that. I'm not trying to sort of stand loftily above it. But, you know, you're looking at your phone and you sort of almost, there's an element of you that wants something new to what he said now.
52:55It's pantomime villain, right? People love a pantomime villain. They love to hate a pantomime villain. Yeah. And that's why you have the despiking subscriptions and so on. No, I'm going to pick on for this one. I think Rory Dominick, I'm going to ask you to pretend that you are Kierstarmers foreign policy and political advisors. And I want you to explain to me how you intend to handle on your first phone call with Donald Trump and your first meeting with Donald Trump. Okay. So, number one, you want to try to create as good a relationship as possible because that's the only hope you've got of trying to influence him.
53:37And then you need to be very, very clear about what Britain's priorities are. I mean, Donald Trump is a challenge to almost everything that Britain is doing because the Labour government has chosen not to go into the customs union or single market. It is very dependent on trade with people at the US and he's about to put up protection barriers. Number one, number two, all the European vision for European security in Russia and Ukraine is threatened by Donald Trump. Number three, our position on the security council opposition in the U .N. is all dependent on Donald Trump. So get that sequence right, work out what really matters and then build an incredible network of everybody who gets to Trump in the hope that you may be able to push in.
54:18But I'm sadly what we pick up from talking to Anthony. Is it half the people that you make contact with get thrown into the wood shipper? People spend around too much, very difficult to have them. I agree, completely with Rory. I think you have to strike a more than cordial, friendly and business like tone in your personal dealings with it. And I think if I'm talking to Kistama, I would say you need to talk to Berlin, Paris and so on about security above all, about what is the future for you? How do we work more closely to present a united front? How do we reimagine a NATO in which the United States is either semi -detached or, worst case scenario, genuine in detached?
55:03Well, some of us have been arguing for European foreign defense policy for some time. You could just say quickly, find the Jared Kushner in the room because Trump is very distracted. He drops the ball all the time. Get in touch with him when you need things and go to him. That's what Netanyahu did. That's what others did. And there's going to be somebody that's going to be picking up the balls with Donald Trump. Identify that person as quickly as possible and build that relationship. Well, here we are. That's the second or two for us, Dense. The more those of us with real stamina, Marina, the mutual myself, we will be back.
55:42When we have two PMs, he's coast and that will be seven PM. So don't watch, don't watch Channel 4 news, come back to CRs, you get the real deal. So that is it. Donald Trump is going to be the next president of the United States. He's going to go well over the 270 electoral college votes, but he's also incredibly one of the popular vote. And this marks whether we like him or not, whether we like it or not, what has to be seen as one of the great comebacks in particular history, not just in America, but anywhere in the world. There's no denying that. Donald Trump, a convicted felon, a man with countless accusations against a sexual assault, we've then tried to overturn the 2020 election in a horrific act of violence as one an extraordinary victory.
56:31As to the cost, we'll find out. It's getting close to 4 AM here. So we're at the end of the second of our live streams that we'll be back tomorrow, those of us with real energy. 7 PM UK time, which is 2 PM Eastern time, to reflect on what we've seen tonight. See you later. Bye bye.
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