337. Trump Returns: What Now?

24:00It's from a public health and safety thing. The fluoride thing is on that conspiracy, you know, which that's against your health interests. And you know, he's like, we can all agree that that's not great. Dominic, yeah. I hate that thing, but you know, I'm going to do what will history say about Joe Biden? History will barely mention Biden now. He'll be an interregnum between the two Trump presidencies. So people will talk, he will be an actor in the Trump story. People will write books about the Trump years, the age of Trump. And Biden will be, you know, an important character in that story. He's a remarkable figure because he's the only person who was able to beat Trump.

24:45And we've all been laughing at Biden for being a thousand years old and for the last four years. But maybe we should take him a little bit more seriously and look at what he got right. And the, the, the, the, the guy from Scranton, Pennsylvania, who knew how blue collar Americans thought, who knew how to talk to them in the kind of, you know, the simple kind of earthy terms. So paradoxically, it means that Biden looks like a punctuation point in history. But at the same time, it also makes him look politically more adept, I would say. But again, they didn't plan. They, they, they really, he will see only person who could beat him in 2020.

25:25But the, the, there's such a lack of planning to not see everyone was saying from the minute he was elected. Always going to be, look, what, what age is he going to be? He's already a bit doggery. I remember seeing him on the last day of that campaign in 2020. And he got off a bus and mentioned, thanks to someone there in the name of his dead son. And I remember he's, anyone, you know, he was, you know, he's obviously a very, very long and tiring campaign. And it's, you're doing 20 stops on the last day. But I remember thinking, this is, that's not great at all. And yet it was, it was, it was a completely covered up and it was a non -issue.

25:58And we now know that they were concealing quite a lot about his state for people. It just shows you, rather, the old E -Nought Palsy, all politics, ends in failure. I mean, yeah, Joe Biden has had an incredible political career and an incredible life. So to hear something like you say, it's going to be like, a punctuation bucket. The Donald Trump story is, yeah, but I guess, you know, I, I, probably not going to get invited to the last bite in Christmas party now because I'm going to say something that none of them are going to like. But I really think there's a big responsibility for Barack Obama in this story.

26:34I really believe when they are writing that history, they're going to say that Barack Obama blocked Joe Biden, literally physically blocked them. You remember that very long Rose Garden speech that Biden gave in 2016? You can't run. I cut it deal with the Clintons in 2012. I told them I'm paving the way. And so this is the group that says democracy is on the line, democracy is on the line. But no democratic process in 2016, no democratic process in, in, in 2024. You see what I'm saying? Yeah. And, and you got to say to yourselves for a second that does Obama bear some responsibility? You say you think if, if Biden it stood when Henry didn't, yeah, he would have done what he wanted.

27:23I do. He would have been, Trump's story would have no Trump's story. Trump would have been back on the apprentice. Trump would have been railing this greed that Nigel's this greed could a another populist figure rise, perhaps, but if Trump's story would have been dead, that would have been no Trump. I don't forget Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016. I think Biden would have outperformed her. He'd have outperformed her in the States, those kind of questions. No question. No, no, no, no, the whole of the States. Well, think about it this way, Dominic. He beat the incumbent sitting president with all the power of the incumbent seat and Air Force one swooping into these areas.

28:01He beat that. It's very hard as you know, and sure everyone here knows, to beat an incumbent president. They had the power and the flex of the presidency. And he beat it, but Obama stopped Biden from running. And I think that's also got to be a part of it. Do you not think there's also an Obama derangement syndrome at work? So as soon as Obama won the presidency, there was always going to be an inevitable backlash. There are a lot of people, frankly, I mean, I hate to say, we were calling it white lash less than I, but that there are a lot of people who basically were inflamed by the spectacle of black president.

28:30No question. And it's very interesting to on the screen there. She raised the billion dollars WTF. She was a picture who came in during the sixth inning and the best she could. It's an absolutely beautiful day. I have to say that. We're in a wonderful building. Thank you to Spotify for putting us up like this. We have back with us Peter Heimann. I should just remind people Peter was a colleague of mine in the Labour Party back in the mid 90s and then in Downey Street, then he went off to become a head teacher, went back to help Kierstarma when his at landslide and has now been spending a time going around the country talking particularly to Republicans.

29:08I wanted to get you back to today because one of the people saying why wasn't I more shocked last night and why wasn't sort of banging my head on the desk and saying it was partly having seen you earlier in the day because you were the person who persuaded me actually that Trump's going to win because you had sort of been explaining to me what you were seeing and hearing on the road from both sides. So just straight straight up, very simple question. Why did all the people who voted for Trump vote for Trump? So I thought within a few days of getting here that he would win comfortably. I didn't think it was close.

29:39I didn't believe the polls. I'm not just, you know, saying that now, I was taking you and other people. I think the starting point and I know you've touched on this quite a lot in the broadcast is the left has got to understand this. There is a swamp and it doesn't eat draining. The left finds that impossible to understand. In other words, as someone put it, government hasn't performed for about 20 years. It hasn't performed on the economy for working people. It's done what people see as unnecessary wars. It hasn't delivered what they say they're going to deliver. So there are a lot of broken promises.

30:14So on the fundamental stuff in Washington is not working and as people see it and Westminster is not working, the equivalent. And before anyone in Britain sort of runs to the defence and say, well, that's just Trump language, you all you've got to say is Grenfell Tower, Hillsborough, Blood Infection, Wings Office, Post Office, Windrush scandal, you know, left alone 8 million waiting for treatment for the NHS and all the sort of public service delivery. No one can say that the government is delivering for working people and that's a starting point. Then the second point is if that's the premise, then you need a disruptor.

30:52And that explains Trump, who people still don't understand. If the swamp needs draining, you need someone who's capable of knocking heads together and draining it. Therefore, you need a larger than life personality. What comes with that is the showbiz and the over -the -top nurse and the language we don't like and all the rest of it, because that is the essence of who he is and that's what people are buying into. If he's softened, if he's softened all of that, then he wouldn't be the disruptor. I respect that. I respect it. But he had four years of draining, he didn't drain it, so why is that?

31:26Well, what is staggering was a poll I saw that showed of all the presidents going back to Clinton, people thought by about 20 % on all of them, some slightly less, that he had delivered for working people. In other words, his reinvention of his term of office, whatever we might think in terms of the stats, everyone I spoke to, that's why Kamala Harris's language don't go back. People said, I want to go back. I thought it was better than Biden's term. And why? I don't... You know, Peter can ask you, we were talking earlier before he came on about the balance between the economic bread and butter issues, the high prices and so on, or disappearing jobs.

32:06And then the stuff about wokeery, transgender issues, all of that kind of stuff. What's the balance there, do you think, in terms of Trump's phases? I think it is, they come together, they overlap. All the DC think, tank people I spoke to said the identity politics had gone too far. It was a bit late for them to a lot of... There's a huge recognition that they have. But it's together in the disconnect between politicians and the public. So it's a disconnect in terms of, you're saying the wrong thing. We talked about that a bit yesterday. You're not using the appropriate languages we determine it.

32:45And that's the culture stuff. Added to, and I'm working even harder than, and working far harder than ever before, in order to get on in life. And that's not recognized either. And I go back to the point of the Harris rallies, there was not a sense of class there, there was a sense of identity and single issues, whether it's abortion or climate or whatever. There wasn't a strand of, we're in it for working people, cost of living poverty. So we need to return to a class -based analysis of this. I don't mean class envy or whatever, but it means you've got to understand working people. But that's the way with a lot of these things, that they kept saying, don't vote for darkness, don't vote for fear.

33:29I'm not, I'm voting for hope. I am hoping that things will be better for me. And even this morning in the analysis, when there's many people who've said, fear wins over hope. And it's like, well, I actually think this is a form of hope for these voters. And whether or not you might regard it as misplaced or whatever, to suggest that they're voting for fear or darkness is, again, the sort of misreading that gets you here in the first place. People disappearing up their back side as to whether he's a fascist or not seems to me entirely making entirely making the point that Trump is making. This is in addition to loving silly, I can't because I do love silly.

34:07I have to retract my fascist comment. I know it's just that they say that with we, nausea, we are here, but it's the serious point. But this is exactly what they think we're doing, that we are in this elevated way, looking at whether intellectually he's a fascist or not. Well, naturally, what they're thinking is, this is a guy who's going to make our lives better. Even if it doesn't. Even we may think you don't. Let me ask you this. You've worked for several prime ministers. You worked with Keir Starmer. What lessons, if any, are there in this for the Labour Party? Well, they're huge lessons, as we've talked about.

34:49We've got a, it was fashionable in the Clinton Blair days to talk about reinventing government. We've got to seriously reinvent government. The performance of government, the delivery of government has to be better. That is not enough. We've got to have a story that connects with people in far better ways. The story being told by Harris was not, I mean, there were message, it's very easy to criticize a campaign from outside. And it's just lost. They've just lost. And it's unfair in a way, because they work, they're so far from whatever. But in terms of the message, the message wasn't fundamentally resolving the things that needed to resolve.

35:27The thing I still think at the heart of this is whether there was continuity or change. They hadn't resolved whether you can't disown your own record, but you've got to make sense of it. We were talking the other day. We had a message in 2001 for Tony Blair, which was a lot done a lot to do. That's quite a bore. To lose. A lot to lose with the others. It's quite a boring message in some way, but it's actually very strategic, because the way you get in smuggling some of your record, which you might say people don't feel yet, is by saying being humble about we've still got a lot to do to make your lives better.

35:58But we have done a lot. We've laid the foundations in the first term. And now I'm going to build on it by accelerating. And she hadn't reconciled that. Yeah. So that's Labour. How do you, if we're always doing it here, he'd say to you as he said last night, and I thought he had a point on this, how do you do this from the left and progressive politics without going down the same route of lying, of thinking it's all about message, as opposed to about delivery, of demonising your opponents, of saying that, how do you do that without actually just playing their game and becoming like them? I've met a group of groups of people who are working on this idea of what they call belonging without othering.

36:43And although that's quite academic language in a way, the essence of that is interesting. People want a sense of belonging. They feel dislocated. They feel unheard. They feel strangers in their own land. But how do you do that? This is the challenge. I'm got all the answers to it without other without having enemies, without stigmatising this group or insulting immigrants or whatever. How do you rebuild community in a way that's effective? Don't you need an amazing person as a vehicle? Do you think that just finding those politicians, and there are politicians, as you say, that you said at the start, Alistair, who are just hugely charismatic, and no disrespect to Kamala Harris, but she's not one of those ones that you're just thinking, my god, they had something, they had some connection, they had some sort of something.

37:34How do you surface those people? Or do you just have to wait for them? Which is what the Democrats seem to be doing. In an era when more and more people are saying, politics is really not for me. I think it's so really difficult. I think you need it, definitely. I think her personal story was almost underused in this. She feared Hillary going on about them. And it wasn't just about saying I'm going to be a first woman president. She could have used her background and her story better. What I thought was interesting is the personal story, and I kid was more powerful than anything she had. Don't you think that politics works best when an individual leader is the embodiment and the incarnation of their message?

38:19So great example of that. The only example of that is Margaret Thatcher, who says in 1979, you know, I'm from Grantham, I'm from the middle of nowhere, I'm an ordinary plane speaking. I'm a grossest daughter. I'm a grossest daughter. I'm a woman, so I'm something new, but because I'm a woman, I understand about inflation and prices. You embody your message. You don't need to explain what your message is because you are your message. Bill Clinton in the 1990s, a new Democrat. He can connect with ordinary voters. He's got a populist side to him. It's only Blair, of course, as you will know. I do think the Democrats, if they found a candidate, the margins are not that great.

38:58So they can, you know, a good candidate can fix a multitude. I have a question. Yeah. So behind you while you're speaking, Peter, there's a biplane flying back and forth on the Hudson River, and there's a tagline being dragged behind it. It says we held the democracy together. Donald Trump disavowed that in 2020. He said that he wanted, was rigged. I believe you've fermented it in its direction, but if you don't believe me, go look at the Ax Smith complaint about the evidence associated with that. Is he the person, and I accept the outcome, by the way, because he won fair and square democratically, but he's either right person, the whole of democracy together.

39:41Well, everyone to judge in a way, we'll all have our different opinions on whether he's right or what are the, you know, but I suppose what I pushed back on is the idea is that a risk is at a risk now that we're with risk, but I push back on again, it was the wrong way of looking at it. This surely has ruled him out. January the 6th has ruled him out, or what they should have done. What they should have done is rally has ruled him out, or and actually that it was sort of, what I mean, it made it, we may think it should have done. So for many things violence, but it was not building, I mean, it's an only his, say he absolutely didn't.

40:16So now, so what do we know that we do, because we've read the complaint. Yeah, well, so he didn't have guardians of the democracy to excise him from the democracy, because he fermented it. He never accepted, he didn't do the traditional thing and sit there at the inaugural. He didn't help the Biden team transition. Now we're bringing him back. All those were probably against the announcement. Now they're all bang at his knee. I'm just telling you, I think it ends in tears for a lot of people. That is, I mean, that is a really thing about it. We had the people, the Democrats forgot what a unique and amazing electoral candidate he is, but those people, those Republicans who knew and who said, or who weren't very quiet and were shocked and appalled on January the 6th, then just let it sort of percolate for a couple of years and then we're back with him.

41:08Well, yesterday I made a sort of tentative and wishful thinking prediction for Harris. There was against all the instincts I've had last years. This prediction I will make is entirely in keeping with my feelings that I've had for the last years. It will go wrong. His presidency will go wrong in ways that we corruption and wickedness and things that those same Republicans who were shocked on January the 6th will fight. That will happen again. And then this time they can't sort of forget it because you have been more once. And so we'll talk a lot about the Democrats. Like, oh, you've done the same as, you've done the same again, but this will happen again in his presidency.

41:47Things will go very badly wrong. I think like that. I mean, you know, Pence has gone, I mean, the answer is going in the woodchipper. Yeah. I got there by like year three, you know, the Trump woodchipper. Yeah. But the only point I would make is, so I agree with everything you said, but the left has got to do more soul searching about why it's getting this wrong and not just think, sort of throw its hands up and say, how could, because as soon as you say how could people have done this and how could they have voted? You are saying people are stupid or you're or they're unhinged or they're deluded or whatever.

42:21And I think that's a very bad place to get yourself into in politics. Well, thanks for coming in again and good luck with this project you engaged in trying to work out how bloody it's taken. Not easy. Isn't easy, but thank you very much. We're going to go to a quick break and then we'll be back to talk about all sorts of stuff. See you soon.

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43:52Welcome back to this third Restisted Polities livestream from a very warm, sunny, beautiful New York, where people are digesting the extraordinary result from from last night. And I just want to, I think we should just talk a little bit about the campaigns and how they feel. There's nothing worse than losing election. Well, okay, there are worse things than losing election, but if you're a political campaigner or a politician that very few things worse than losing election. And I've been getting messages today from all sorts of people involved on the Democrat side saying this is like kind of death.

44:27This feels like a death in the family. This horrific. But I can have to pick themselves up and analyze it. What about what are you hearing from Republicans? Well, I mean, I've heard from both sides. So I'll start with the Republicans. They are ecstatic. They feel that they that Trump is subdued. Okay, again, he was subdued last time when he won. So I don't know how long that will last. And they see that as a good thing. They see him bringing in big amounts of staff. When you say he's subdued, what he's like reflected in his life. Well, no, no, somebody just be brutal. Yeah. A direct quote. He's 78 years old.

45:06He's absolutely exhausted. He's too tired to govern. He's going to let other people do this job. It's happening again. Yeah, I'm just telling them what their people are saying. You know, you know, they're, and they're saying that in a good way. They're saying that meaning he's going to pick good people. He's going to let them run the government not to worry. I got one very wise, you know, what sort of a text saying that I hear by declare that you won't be deported. Don't worry. Ha, ha, ha. But but the point being that they're in a great mood and they think Trump is in the right place. They don't see Trump in an anger place.

45:41They don't see Trump like, hey, good morning, where's the enemy's list? I got a hundred days to get the right DOJ in place to wipe out my enemies. They don't see him doing that at all. Just give us a, those are the facts. Give us a little bit of that. Just saying something totally different. Give us a feel for what happens. You were part of the transition team last time, right? How does this transition actually work? You've now got between now and January. You've got processes to go through. Yeah. I assume that Biden and Kamala Harris who will have to certify the election defeat herself. It's pretty grim prospect for her.

46:11But what's going to happen now between the relations between the Trump team and the current administration? It's a fascinating question. And I think the Biden team is going to help the Trump team, even though the Trump team didn't help the Biden team. But Trump will ignore everything that the Biden team presents them because he has a big brain and he's smarter than everybody. The other problem for the people that are on his executive transition committee, which I once served on at 2016, is that Trump has no executive management skills. He's a rock contour. He's a communicator. He's a projectist politician.

46:44But he's not an executive Allister in the sense that, okay, Allister, you're good at this, Marina, you're good at that, Dominic, and delegating. And then you report back to me. He doesn't do that. But ends up happening is it's like a billier table. The balls are running all over the billier table. And then he gets upset if you have done something that he doesn't like always after the fact. You had to be very, very careful. He puts everybody on eggshells. We had people in place. We brought them to Trump. We told the people that they were going to be the XYZ. You didn't you didn't tell me in time.

47:16I don't want that person. Well, he reads stuff. What do you read? Folders and economy foreign policy. Never, never. Trump likes pictures. Okay. And he likes pictures of himself. And you know, nobody likes pictures. I'm sorry. I like pictures of himself straight on like this because he complains that he looks fat from this angle. Okay. So when you're presenting something to Trump, it's two pages three or four pictures of him. There may be a mag a hat on and he's looking straight up. You think I'm making the shit up? No, no, no, no. I'm telling you. It's just crazy. Okay. Okay. I know. I just want to see it.

47:47I'm just compared to which which which presidents read tons of stuff. Oh, but the more you read can be a very dangerous thing. So Jimmy Carter famously a massive micro manager. The great fact about him is they here handled insisted on handling the bookings for the White House tennis court personally. Richard Nixon would stay up till three o 'clock four in the morning. That was a pull of reading papers. The more you read can be, I mean, it sounds a weird country and choose a thing to say.

48:17I it's a process. I mean much as I enjoy doing it. I mean, just say, you know, you can't make this shit up and that's exactly what he does. But you present him something something in there related to him and then you tell him what you want him to do. And if he signs off on it, you're fine. But if you're doing stuff in that transition that he hasn't signed off. I'll tell you right now, treasury super important to him commerce super important to him state department, which I do think is going to Marco Rubio. Yeah. Oh, I do. I do a super important to him. Marco's very tired with Susie Wiles. Susie Wiles wanted Marco to be the vice president.

48:54Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. She's good group. She's from Florida. Marco's from Florida. She wanted him to be the vice president. She thought he fit the niche, the niche for the Latin community, etc. Trump did not want that. He wanted to triple down on the base. And I think he gets his secretary his question for you. So the way you're describing Trump governing, which is he doesn't read much. He likes looking at fights across himself. Whatever. He's not massively dissimilar in that regard from Ronald Reagan who wanted everything reduced to bullet points who didn't like he said. Can I say that? He figured the famous story.

49:25Can I explain this to you? Hard work never killed anybody. But I say why would you take the chance? Yeah. Right. It was a great light. But what Reagan did is he surround himself with very, very skilled ruthless effective operators. Will Trump be able to do that? I just want to explain that there's a very important Reagan had on his desk a plaque. It said you can get anywhere you want in life as long as you don't care who gets the credit. You remember that line? That's a German line. Okay. Harry has too many. Took it from Harry has too many. Yeah. Trump is the opposite. All credit comes to me. I am the black hole for credit.

49:58Don't try to take credit. Oh, you think your president president Campbell now, Alistair? Oh, Alistair, you're getting more famous than myself. Those are keywords run run for your life. Okay. Does he pit you against each other? Oh, 100%. He'll say something to you that he knows going to antagonize him. And then I'll say something vice versa. And then he'll watch that happen. And he'll laugh about it. He thinks it's funny. To be fair, that's what we do on the rest is. Yeah. Yeah. But you're you're sort of, you know, you're running for the last while you're the you're the Steve Panerangman master, though.

50:28I know you are. You're the Mac Evalian. Here's one for you. Yeah. This is unlikely right now given some of the things you said, but JD Vance did call him Hitler. If the phone went again, and it was the White House saying, we think you should come back. Okay. So so first of all, I am running for re -election in my marriage. Okay. So Sally .com, you're very important to me at this point in my life. I got to get to the address way more important. And I'm probably I could be totally limited in that marriage for all I know. Okay. So there is no way that I would ever return to a Trump government or frankly, any real any type of government.

51:04However, I am an American. If they put me on a the presidential monuments committee, if they said to me, they wanted help on the crypto advisory council, would I do an outside council advisory position as a private citizen? I would certainly do that because I'm an American and I would want to I want to advertise the salient will not he's not advertising scare on me. No, let me tell you something. Let me tell you something. Deirdre. I don't want that. Okay. No, most men would not want that. And I'm just telling you, you don't you don't want that. Okay. All right. What do you know? We're in the rest of entertainment.

51:41I got the gesture I understood and I think you're probably right. Just do like a little random committee. Yeah. What for the non -fascist? What do you think the media is going to do with a second term Trump? I want to say the media. I know it's such a big thing. But what's the mindset that says if you are on the Trump beat, if you're the Guardian Washington correspondent, you've got four more years of this. So first of all, how you feeling about it? Secondly, how are you going to handle it? Well, I'm not even I'm not going to so narrow it down to the guardian because this is a good course all New Jersey.

52:11I'll be loads of anguished hand ringing about, you know, did we miss something this time? How do we say how do we cover it this time when it's going to get crazy and how do we fact checking it? All the same things we've been saying. But the honest answer is it's good for business. It will drive, as I said yesterday, it will drive subscriptions up. It will be good for business. There will be a lot to cover. Lots of things will happen. And if you're in the news business in some ways, that's what people want. I don't know, people say, no, I want to live in a peaceful world where nothing happens. But actually people, it will drive business and many, many news organizations will probably hang on longer than they would have done because of this.

52:47But the point the pizza timer was talking about, he seemed to be saying, I was really worried about this. He seemed to be saying, you know, banging on about fascism, banging on about, you know, January the 6th the whole time. I think part of the problem, first time around, the media didn't bang on enough about the bad stuff. And that's what normalised it and legitimised it. Do you think the media will just think, oh, well, that's Trump? Leave those thoughts to the media? I mean, I don't know. I think there was a lot, you know, there was a lot of people complaining that people even went and spoke to people who voted Trump and said, you've gone on an interview, Nazis.

53:17And I, this is, again, this is not helpful. And it's whether or not the media regards itself as a sort of actor in all this, which I don't think it should, personally. I think, you know, you're a journalist and you should, I mean, I'm an opinion journalist, so it's different. It was quite obviously marked as an opinion. But I think you should, you know, you should cover your times. You shouldn't necessarily think completely that you are an actor. This now, don't forget that Trump tries to make them an actor because he's used them as a really use, the fake news media. They're really useful antagonists and they can be blamed for all sorts of things.

53:47And they're almost like a part in the pantomime. So I think you just, you, that is best to avoid. But as I say, I mean, honestly, it is good for business and that is the reality. Joe Biden and Donald Trump have spoken and Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have spoken and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have spoken. And I think of the three that might have been tastiest conversations. I'm sorry, that's not a love triangle. I was just saying that. But I have a question for you. They detain a journalist. Maybe it's an international journalist. There's a 2 ,300 journalists at the White House. They've decided it's not enough to take the press credentials away from the sum, but the person's detained.

54:25Maybe they're put in a holding tank or something like that. How does the press report that? Well, then this is what I mean when I say things will go wrong. Bad things are going to happen that lots of people, including plenty of sort of moderate Republicans who still voted for Trump, will have to recognize as a dark path to be going down. I do think those things will happen and I would sort of bet on that happening. I'm not suggesting that they will definitely sort of imprison a journalist. But yes, of course it could happen. And it will divert from something else and he will use it as a tool and all sorts of these sort of things will happen.

54:57Yes, but I think then the press have to sort of work together and, but they would do. I mean, everyone, lots of people. But he Putin doesn't. Let's, let's take some of your questions. We've had lots and lots and lots. Sorry, we don't music it through them all, but his is a few. Fergal banks, what's the next step for those Republicans? So the questions no going away again. What's the next step for those Republicans who spoke out for Harris during the election campaign? Anthony. Well, I think for me, I'm going to regroup with members of that Harris team. I think there's a group of executives, Mark Cuban, myself, others want to regroup with them and at least give them our report back from the field based on our feelings of what they would need to do to recalibrate.

55:41I think, I think we are no longer Republicans, frankly, we have to just accept that Republican party because that's Trump's party. It's known as a Republican party. It should be the Trump -Lican party, but that's the party. And so I have to probably, I'm thinking about, frankly, re -registering as an independent, to get fits more where I am right now. I am, I am a former Bush Reagan Republican, but that doesn't exist anymore. And it's not ever coming back. And so I'm not going to join forces with him at a principle. I don't think what he's doing is the right thing to do. It's just the fact that I'm talking to you about the potential that a journalist could be jailed.

56:21Is a sickening thought in this beautiful, wonderful, amazing country. So I will re -register as an independent. I will offer a voice against nonsense that I see happening. And I'll explain to the American people why this is dangerous for them. We just spoke at an event. I said, the bellicosity of this man's rhetoric is having an effect on your family. It's having an effect on the culture in our society. And it's giving the license that people will be cruel to each other. I don't want to represent that. I think many of us in that camp that is it. Fergal, I'm sorry, my contacts aren't in today. Fergal Banks is saying it's a great question.

57:00I don't think we can be, I don't think we could be with him. And so I'll be in the box of independence. Can I just get a assurance that this one hour a week, arranged on the last week, the US is going to be asleep deprivation, dehydration. Can I answer the question? I'm going to need like an IV gym. I'm going to need better health after that. I haven't brought them up, but I'm going to probably need them as well. So you carry on. Yeah, I'll carry on. It's mentioning how the crisis is going to happen. Especially when you sit in Rory's chair. Okay, when Rory's flying around the world. Okay, I like this chair.

57:33I feel like it's a chair power. This is the closest I can get to power at this point in my career. Sitting next to him. We're sitting next to Alison. Right, I'll sit up in the chair because this son of a bitch is really tall. Would have learned Kelly. Meru, why don't you take this one? Would a more radical Democrat candidate have had a better result against Trump? Are we just in an age that values the extremes whichever way that falls? Great question. Well, I mean, socially radical, no, that would have been an even greater kiss of death, no, not at all. But economically radical, I mean, yes, you know, the idea of sort of left economic populism that I suppose is best in body and some like the figure of someone like Bernie Sanders.

58:12People, what you don't want, as Peter was saying, is that you need that person to sound like a disruptor, even if that person is actually a bit of a continuity economic proposing a sort of continuity economic program. And I don't think that people feel that enough radical suggestions were being made. But a lot of what Biden did with his legislation was to steal the clothes of Mago. He understood that that people needed more than that that that that that that Trump had noticed how bad things had got for people off the financial crisis in a way that the Democrats had been really slow to realize.

58:49So he did actually sort of steal their clothes to something stand and give and pass this look. You don't necessarily want a radical, but you want, I mean, Rory, thank God, is not here. I don't think populism is always a bad thing. And I think somebody who's a populist with a common touch, that's what the Democrats need. Is what you want to do? Do you think, give us a few names that you think might be the candidate next time around? On the other side. So, you know, I don't know how Kim Jeffries, I don't know them as well. I don't know how, excuse me, the role ambitious, I know AOC wants to run.

59:23I don't even know if she's at the age threshold of 35 yet I'd have to look that up. But I know those are the people that want to run. They are, they would represent that sort of harder left progressive wing of the party. She is 35. Yeah, so I think she would want to run. She has a compelling message, incredibly hard worker. She's very charismatic. But then again, radical. Radically progressive is more of the problem. Yeah, I think again, look at what we had a woman just run. She was against fracking. She became forefacking. She was against, she was for defunding the police. Now she's against it.

1:00:05She was for bail reform. Then she was against it. I don't know what they're going to morph themselves into and they start messaging as a presidential candidate. But I disagree with that. I think they need a Clinton layer figure. He's a 40, 45 year old person. He's been around the block. Perhaps he's a governor. Unfortunately, he probably is a man just to just be brutally honest. He's probably a governor out there that's done a good job in his state. Which state? It would have to be one of the bigger states. I've got to look through the list and you say, okay, this guy. So I think Gavin is too old now.

1:00:44I think he's jumped, I think he's jumped the shark. He may try it. Okay, he's 55. He may try it. Yeah, I think he's too old. I do. I do. I do. I think I think the what's happened here has been burnt by a Californian from San Francisco. He was the mayor of San Francisco. I think that stove is a little bit too hot for Gavin. I might be wrong. Let's take another question.

1:01:09Sir Juan Zare, now Trump has the Senate in the house. Dominic, I think. Can you bend democracy and become a semi -tyrant? How much power can you give himself? How much power does the president have to say to a British prime minister in their own countries? In many ways, not as much. So with my history hat on, when this system was set up by the founding fathers, the one thing they wanted to avoid was a tyrant. So that's the point of the federal system, the separation of powers, the balance of power, senior judiciary, the legislature, the executive. A president has less power than we commonly think.

1:01:45There is no doubt that Trump will want to be an imperial president for once for a better word. He'll have the Senate. The house is still in the balance, as far as I understand. They're in the lead. I think, I mean, he's got two years. Then there's the midterms. Who knows what happens in those midter elections? How much can he do? Probably less, I would argue. He can set the tone. He can make a few landmark executive orders, but it's hard for any president, even with a majority in Congress to get stuff through. So he may be more limited than we think. Okay. Another question. Jade Higgins, Kirsta Amos statement congratulating Trump felt disingenuous.

1:02:28Would you have guided him to be more honest? Would you have guided him to be more honest about the difference in opinion? Or is it better to seem courteous? I think you have to seem courteous. You have to be courteous. You have to acknowledge as you did last night. He won. And also in the special relationship, the United States is the far bigger partner. And it is now a big part of Kirsta Amos job is to try to make sure there is some sort of relationship there. It's interesting. I watched a little bit of Prime Minister's questions. That's how sad I am. Anthony, today, I was interested in Ed Davy, the Liberal Democratic leader.

1:03:01He went at Kirsta Amos on trade and tariffs. And essentially saying, you know, this clearly is going to make it very, very difficult for Britain if we're not more closely aligned with the European Union. And I thought it was very interesting take. I think you've got it. I don't know what you think, Marie. I think you've got to say the sort of things that Kirsta Amos said last night. I mean, the idea in the first statement, you sort of say, well, yeah, but where there's difference of opinion will go for it. Oh, no, you can't. No, no, no, no. I didn't even think it sounded disingenuous. No. It sounded bland and political, which is probably what you were trying to go for, just a sort of boilerplate, nothing to have, nothing to incendiary, nothing to, and nothing.

1:03:43So I, no, I thought that was the tone to strive. I mean, they all struck something like that. You saw all the leaders around, all the sort of limbalish leaders around the world. I just seen it as well. You saw a Modi and true derv just put out pretty positive. And can I just say, can we hear a little bit about that in what you've been hearing from inside the Democrats campaign? I don't think we went. No, we just went on the revolutions. Democrats are saying something that I think I find unusual.

1:04:20And I'm nature of not understanding dollars. And so, so, you know, and I talked to three business executives that I'm close to. I said, you know, we are almost going to have to have an intervention. They don't understand the movement. They don't understand how we got 10 % more of the Latino vote. How we got 46 % of the, they, they don't say, I've talked to five or six counts people. I've talked to strategy people. I've talked to people inside Biden's White House. And they're all sitting there, you know, Alistair before doing it as a death. But it's more than that. There's a denialism that has taken place where they ran the same playbook that Hillary had right down to the concert.

1:05:05And we said, please don't do that. And they did the exact same thing. And the outcome was not that we, not only would we lose the House and Senate, like the House that the House is still being voted on, accounted, let me say. But not now we lose that. But we also lost the Barbell of the World. So guys, what are you doing? Yeah. Let's have a little run around the world. Start in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu was I think the first leader to come right out and say, this is great news. What do we think this means for, let's take them in order, Middle East, Ukraine, and China, Taiwan? Let's start with you, Donate.

1:05:47Middle East, Netanyahu is obviously delighted. My sense is that there's no end in sight there and where the peace process, such as it is, whether it restarts very hard to say, Russia, Ukraine, but so I saw Zelensky's message. Zelensky sent a very finely crafted message. He's hoping for the best. And for that he used the word strong a lot, which is a word clearly calculated to appeal to Donald Trump. But my fear, I mean, this has always been my big fear during this election, is that the real losers of this are the Ukrainians. China, Taiwan. China, Taiwan, I think, listen, if Trump appeases Putin in Ukraine, I think that sends a very worrying message to Beijing.

1:06:42If I was in Taiwan, would I feel confident that Donald Trump would step up to deter a Chinese attack? I wouldn't, frankly. And what was the other thing the United Nations, do you say? No, no, Europe. Oh, Europe. Because I think European foreign policy defense, I think this, you know, we said last night, the one thing Trump definitely got right was that NATO countries in Europe have taken America. He was absolutely right about that. I think Europe has put this question off for far too long. And by Europe, I don't mean this so just the EU, I mean, the EU and Britain. And it's allies in the kind of, as it were, the Atlantic, Western democratic world, so Australia, Canada and so on.

1:07:23I think there's been, there has been, Trump was right. There has been too much free loading on the back of American defense spending. And Britain and its allies have to think very seriously about security apparatus that maybe has the United States as a semi -detached or indeed absent partner. So, you know, I mean, I'll start with the Middle East. He doesn't understand it. He has no concept of it. And so one thing about Trump from his nature, Aleister could never brief Trump and start explaining things to him didactically. He would flip out because he doesn't want people to know that he doesn't know things.

1:07:57So we were on the plane once and someone was trying to explain they brought a foreign policy guy on it saying, look, let me explain to you the Sykes Pico Struty, which is practically the treaty that was happened in World War I to evacuate the Ottoman Empire, the British and the French out of the Middle East. There was some sinister things that happened where they left border disputes everywhere and they had the tribes fighting with each other. These guys almost like they have going to leave this mess and let them handle it, right? So they created these imaginary countries, Iran, Syria is not Iran, but Syria and Iraq are two imaginary countries, etc.

1:08:30Kuwait is an imaginary country. That's why that war started. And Trump cut them at the knees. What are you talking about? I know what the Sykes Pico Struty clearly didn't. And I know more about the Middle East than what's in my thumbnail that's in your entire brain. And what are you talking about? Because he's so insecure. He didn't want somebody to explain to him something that he didn't know in front of a group of other people. So about an hour later, we were sitting at the table with him. I think he was like horsing like Donald's French fries. And I said to him, you know, you remember, just read his story, I was he ever seen the movie Lawrence of Arabia.

1:09:09Lawrence of Red with Peter O'Toole. Oh, what a great movie. I was a young kid, but it's all that movie. We saw it on the big screen, cinem scope, blah, blah, blah. Yeah, do you remember what the movie was about? No, not really. I don't remember what the movie was about. And then I took them through the plot of the movie. I took them through the Sykes Pico Struty, through the movie. When I was done, when I was done doing that, pictures of him, but when I was done doing that, he then said to me, so that's what these sons of bitches did. I said, yeah, let me show you on my phone. They literally took a ruler and drew a line between Iraq and Syria.

1:09:47And as you see the thread, there's no, usually there's a territory, there's a mountain, there's a river, but they just cut it right here, and they knew these tribes would be fighting for hundreds of years after they evacuated from the area. And so that fortified him. Okay, the other thing he didn't understand was Gat. Do you want me to keep going? Or do you want me to stop? Is okay? I tell the Gat story real quick. Yeah, he has no doubt understand Gat. Okay, the general agreement to trade in tariffs. And so someone was coming to brief him on Gat. I said, please don't fall into the same trap. Okay, I want you to tell him a story about George Marshall and Harry Truman and what they were trying to do.

1:10:26Why Mr. Trump, do you know why the terrorists, the US were accepting high tariffs on the way in? Okay, I mean, we were allowing for blockades and we were low tariffing. You know, we were allowing countries to tariff because we were 3 % of the world's population, 65 % of the world's GDP. And we wanted rising living standards, okay? So, and we did that for the Europeans and we did that for the Japanese and then we layered on the Marshall Plot, which Trump did learn about in eighth grade social studies. So he sort of knew that. And then he looked at me and he said, so this thing was intentionally uneven.

1:11:03I said, oh, yeah, it was intentionally uneven because there was a spectre of totalitarianism and communism. And we had a balance the powers in the world. And then he looks over at me and says, how the after you know all this? I said, you know, I read, I read a big test to read. And then the very next day, and you'll enjoy this, Alcora, he was trying to tell somebody this new, imported knowledge. And he was fumbling the goddamn thing. Well, we're scared of mochi, okay? Come on, tell me that story again. Okay, but I'm going to tell you why this is an important story. He's still using it. He's still using it.

1:11:40You'll see it in his speeches. You'll see it in the ways talking. He had the instincts to raise the tariffs, but he didn't understand the history. Also, I said, by the way, you know, whether Europeans are paying less than 2 % when Eisenhower was running NATO, he went back to Truman and they were fighting those two. He said, don't let it go. We want to let it go. We want to let it go because we're going to be the biggest military. And he tore a page out of Thomas Hobbes. And so he's a good thing. So it is a good thing. And he said, let it go because in the Leviathan, written 350 years ago, there is one global hegemon who uses its military might, beneficially, to suppress the interness and conflicts around the world.

1:12:25This is what Eisenhower told Truman. He said, let it go. I told Trump that. He said, well, you know, it's 60 years later. Should we still be letting it go? And the answer to the question is no. Not at this moment because the world has changed. But he didn't understand the historical context of all of these legendary leaders making these decisions. Have you read any books? Sorry, that's a bit off topic. Me? No, not you. He's read every book. He has a joke. The one that he wrote. No, the joke on the campaign in 16. Trump has written more best sellers than he's read because he always had a ghost right or right in the garden.

1:13:02Let's just say that you mentioned that tariffs and we talk about economy and global trade. I mean, I don't, I'm not an economist at all, but I got the feeling when he was talking about tariffs during the campaign that he literally didn't know what he was talking about. He doesn't understand the consequences of what he was saying about tariffs. Okay, so I know he does because light does. Yes, he does. So what he's saying about China, he understands what he does. He does. He does. He's exaggerating. Okay, light hiser who he adores. Okay, light hiser is from a blue collar family in Ohio and for people's benefit, that was our US trade representative under Trump.

1:13:38And he wrote a very good book on trade, by the way, I would recommend it to people. But light hiser is somebody that's roughly Trump's age. I remember Trump is an agent. He's an agent. Okay, he would take advice from you, Alistair, because you're inside of a 10 -year window of him. He doesn't like taking advice from people younger than him, but light hiser and him are the same age. And light hiser explained to him what we need to do with the tariffs. Trump's always exaggerating them, which makes you think he doesn't understand it, but that's for the messaging to the, that's the red meat to his base, the exaggeration.

1:14:12Donnie, what's he making of this, the way that he prepares, the way that he gets briefed? I mean, how can you possibly run a non -chaotic administration? Well, that's why it's like that. Well, I mean, it will be chaotic. There's no question. Yeah, yeah. I mean, as Marina was saying, there will be plenty of chaos to come. The story doesn't end here. There will be all kinds of ludicrous myths out. Because that's the nature of a Trump administration. I don't, I don't, I apologize. I don't have my laptop. If we Googled the letter that Trump wrote to Erdogan in early 2020, we get that? If we can find it somewhere, it literally looked like somebody wrote it with a broken crayon, okay?

1:14:47And it was like, it was whole grammatically like in Congress. And General Kelly called me. And he said, did you read this letter? If this would have never gotten out, if, I mean, it was literally crazy. But listen, look at it. So in other words, like people are like, okay, forget it. I can't, I'm not getting fired. I don't want an ass -each -weed about me. Let them send the broken crayon matter out to Erdogan. Okay. Dear Mr. President, let's work out a good deal. Exclamation might. You don't want to be responsible for slaughtering the sounds of the people. I don't want to be responsible for destroying the turkish economy.

1:15:22And I will. I've already given you a little sample with respect to Pastor Brunson. I've worked hard to solve your problems. Don't let the world down. You can make a great deal. General Miss Lume is willing to negotiate. He's willing to make concessions that they would never have made the past. I'm confidentially closing a copy of a letter to me just to receive. History will look upon you favorably. If you get this done the right and humane way, it will look upon you forever as the devil. The good things don't happen. Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool. Don't be a fool. I think that's the problem.

1:15:49I'll call you later. I'll call you later. I mean, literally. Don't call me like, okay, he obviously took a broken crayon out. And he wrote the damn thing and someone transcribed it and just sent it out. I can't let this slide out from the table. What was the option? You will. Well, yeah, well, I can't remember this plotline. Then what was the option? No, I don't know. I don't know. What was the reply? So, so it was not something to mess with. I don't I don't honestly remember. Okay. But he had this weird relationship with Erdogan because he liked Erdogan's strength. You know, he liked the fact that he took over a democracy.

1:16:21And then he ended the democracy. He was fascinated with that. And he also liked Erdogan's control over the central bank. Okay. And thank God you have minutia in place. And because minutia helped get pal through the nomination process. Okay. And and Trump likes. He wants the Fed to be dependent upon him. And I would tell you that would be an international nightmare. It would destroy the deepest, most liquid capital markets in the world of the US. But this is the type of nonsense that's going to come out of his administration. He doesn't have people checking him. Okay. God, I want you. What's he going to be like?

1:16:56Answering a question for you. Yep. A transition process. How's that? So that's the important question now. And the question, who's he predict the cabinet? Who's he getting in? Secretary of State, Rubio. I think it's going to be Rubio. I think Linda McMahon is going to go to commerce. She was a small business executive. Her husband owns the Worldwide Wrestling Federation. He's Jim McMahon. Which is very capable, very good person, by the way. So I think she'll do a good job there. She'll be a safe pair of hands. I think Treasury, there's going to be a food fight between Scapascent. Name you don't know, but I know him in the hedge fund industry.

1:17:30He's the work for George Soros. Very smart guy, very capable. John Paulson, and a gentleman by the name of Howard Lutnik, that is the co -chair of the transition team. I think Lutnik is the wild card, frankly, because he's new to Trump world. And I think he is hurting his position by overtaking. There was a Wall Street Journal article about him. A couple of guys dropped bombs on him. The article being very critical of him. He's a CEO of Canada. He's a CEO of Canada Fitzgerald. So another very smart. These are smart guys. But the problem is when you're trying to out -Trump Trump, okay, you create chaos for yourself.

1:18:07Okay. And that could be a problem. And what do you do it in Mar -Lago? In Trump Tower? What is the Trump Tower? It'll be a more loggo deal. It'll set up a facility down in Mar -Lago. The interviews will be held in Mar -Lago. Trump asked me to do something for him. It was called the Tiger Team, which I wasn't well suited for. What was the Tiger Team? I want you to be tough like a tiger. And I want you to screen out the people that are not full -mag -up people. And so Don Jr. is going to do that for him now. And that's what Lutnik really wants. He wants everyone to be loyal. I have to have them.

1:18:44You can't be a guard. You'll fail the Trump test if you're a guard in variety. That doesn't transfer it in the grave. But you're a middle of the road, Republican. We don't want you. We want you with a Maggatatou on your forehead. And we want you with a red tie and a red hat coming through the door to get this interview. Sorry. Sorry. Lara Trump and Don Jr. What do you see? Where do you see their roles? Will they have any kind of... She has something formal. What about him? So it's a very interesting question because he likes having his family around. And I don't think Jared Kushner and Ivanka are coming in.

1:19:22If Jared gets US special envoy to the Middle East to further the Abraham Accords and he can still run his private equity, and her prize, I think he would probably do that. I don't think he's going to be in the administration. I think Ivanka clearly wants out. That's just reading the tea leaves, though, not speaking with her. Don Jr. In the past, for whatever reason, I think they're very similar. There's been a little bit of combustion between the two of them. And they seem to do better relationship -wise if they're not doing that. And so he may not end up in the administration. That's my sense.

1:20:01Lara will have a role. You'll have a role. She'll be doing something fairly, fairly large in the administration. Well, look, we're coming to the end of specials. In New York, we had eight hours of the last night. Yeah. And now, thank you very much. Thank you. And all that. Final thought. It's around the table, Tom. It's a shock. It makes you recalibrate the way you thought about the last eight years or so. But it is the new normal. It's no longer enough to say Trump is an aberration, a short -term reaction. And this is 21st century politics now. And those people who don't like what Trump stands for, and I can myself, among them, have to realise that we're in a new world.

1:20:49They're post -war, settled, consensual style of doing politics is gone forever. And we are in an age of turbulence in chaos. And we need politics that deals with that. I agree. Buckle up. That's my two words. Yep. On to me. Again, maybe I'm too optimistic. I think there is a scenario where he has gotten his retribution. He's won back the presidency. It's a incredibly hard thing to do. He's 78, and he may leave it up to the locals. I've gotten pushed back now that I've said that. Three or four people have said to me, no, he's craving the autonomy. He's got the House and the Senate. He's going to try to break the system.

1:21:34So I want to see. One way or another, something's going to happen. But if a journalist gets jailed in this country, there's not one person on this panel that would be surprised by that if it happens in a Trump administration. And that's the most worrisome thing I can say in terms of where this republic stands right now on the cusp of 2025. Okay, well, we've got that set. With the end of our third and final restisting, post -war, can I tell Roy that I got the seat now? No. You can tell him, I think he really wasn't. And those are now what he'd be saying is that I think Kamala is going to win. Yeah, we know that.

1:22:08He'll be asking what the odds are, you know, four days after the certification. Can I get back to what was meant to be like, like big, momentous finale? Is that okay? Thank you. Yeah, so that's it. America has decided Donald Trump is going to be the next president of the United States. And his presidency as Reena has just said, it's going to be turbulent. So make sure you hit subscribe so you don't miss out as the restist politics and the restist politics of the US. Follow it all the way. If you get, you know, if you want to something a little less cerebral, you can always try the restisting street.

1:22:41Dominic and Simemerina, it's been absolutely brilliant 24 hours and despite the result, which I don't think any of us feel great about, it's been a pleasure. None of this would be impossible for us without Spotify, who have been incredibly generous. And letting us use this wonderful Sky's Crape of Studio here in the World Trade Center. And thanks to the sponsors too. If you missed any of these live streams, you can head to Spotify now to watch it all on catch up and one last thank you to all of you. And we're into the millions now watching around the world. It's been brilliant to see how many of you joined us.

1:23:12That's it for us. Goodbye.