364. Question Time: America’s waning power, Alastair vs. Meta, and the existential threat of depopulation

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1:21Welcome to the RSS Pollution Time with me, Yannis De Campbell and with me, Rory Stewart. Now, Rory, question here from Simon Hood, who I think is one of our RSS Pollity's members. You can become a member, just go to the RSS Pollity .com. What are your thoughts on South Korea's institutional response to an existential threat to the rule of law, particularly when contrasted to recent developments in the US and much older democracy where they've struggled to deal with one. I mean, South Korea is still going on this thing with the President. It's amazing, isn't it? Quick reminder of what happened over the last couple of weeks.

1:51So the President of South Korea declared martial law. The parliament in the opposition responded by issuing an impeachment order that the Prime Minister's arrest and his arrest. The police turned up to try to arrest the President of South Korea and his bodyguards then formed around the presidential mansion and didn't let the police in because it was going to be a standoff and then finally the military rolled in with special forces and other units to arrest the president. Now I was just trying to get my head around this because South Korea is of course one of the wealthiest most developed countries in the world.

2:34You know we've talked about K culture and K drama and K pop. It's GDP per capita is mesmerizingly high. It's one of the most amazing economic success stories and it graduated from being an authoritarian military -dominated state in the 1980s into a democracy and it's a key ally of the US and the West. So this is a bit It's sort of a revelation that whatever South Korea is, it's not quite the Kansas, the 1950s, maybe more the Kansas under Donald Trump because you can't quite imagine this happening in Britain or Italy. It feels a little bit more like the kind of story that might come out of Latin America.

3:23And I guess one theme in it is that it implies that things aren't quite clear yet in the Constitution. Who gets to declare martial law, who gets to impeach who, what's the president's power, what's the parliament's power, and who does the military listen to and when do the tanks roll that? It's still not clear to me what the prime motivation was for the initial order of martial law, which is what led to the protests, then led to his being taken through this constitutional process. So he's now being investigated by the corruption investigation office for high ranking officials called the CIO. He'll only be removed from office.

4:05There's a stand in president there at the moment. He only gets removed from office if a constitutional court upholds the impeachment. And that, again, it's a bit like the American system. That depends on kind of who's sitting on the court at the time. And I guess the point you're making is that I think in And so far as South Korean impinges upon us, we know about it in relation to the its divisions with North Korea, but also it is sort of seen as one as an economic success story, and normally with economic success stories you have the sense of political stability and what this has shown is a sense of pretty profound political instability.

4:39And at quite a dangerous time because it's difficult to know how this will play out, but But clearly there are two factions and there are different people with guns on either side. It may well calm down, but if I were the ambassador in South Korea, I would be a bit anxious about what this suggests might happen over the next few months. And I'd also be a bit anxious about whether North Korea, which is of course sitting just on the other side of the border with 25 ,000 American soldiers in between, might not use this moment of uncertainty and instability in the South Korean government to try something hostages, land grab, missile tests, and particularly to do it at a moment where there's a new, very uncertain Trump government coming in in the US.

5:23Final thing on South Korea before we move on. We've talked about demography and I hope we're going to probably do a bigger show on what's happening to world population, which is one of the bigger stories. But South Korea is the most dramatic, almost example in the world. Its birth rate has dropped. Replacement is obviously about just over 2%. you know, two people need to have just over two kids for your population to be stable. In South Korea, the birth rate is 0 .7%. Its population is currently projected to shrink from 51 million to 28 million by the end of the century. So basically, its population's going to half.

5:59I think at some point we should do a really big thing on deep population. I think it's one of those massive things that people aren't really focused on in the way that they should be in politics. Now, Roy, we had a bit of a chuckle with Tom Fletcher on leading about perishing the thought that you and I could have a, and he could have a smug and self -complacent and self -satisfying. So let's take a critical question. David Krab, Rory and Alistair, you both hop on about political integrity. You've been part of the very establishment that has eroded public trust. Is this podcast your attempt at redemption or just another ego trip?

6:30I think David's a big fan. What do you think of that? It's interesting isn't it? Because it's sort of echoes that statement in the Trump second and inaugural where he talks about a radical and corrupt establishment extracting wealth, paramount citizens. I mean, it's part of the whole style of new politics, isn't it? This general sense that we're suffering from a corrupt elite. I mean, yes, the public is dismayed by politics. Yes, incumbents are being defeated. Is the podcast our attempted redemption or just another ego trip. And not sure it's quite either of those things. And I'm not sure it's directly connected to this question of how governments restore public trust.

7:09But partly the problem is the expectations from the public about what governments can do, a completely out of whack with the reality. And people are perpetually disappointed and furious at and looking for more and more radical solutions. Yeah. I mean, I get what he's coming from. I think it is, as you say, part of the whole sort of anti -politics mood. And we are, because of our backgrounds, probably still seen much more as political figures than what I know you would love to be seen at, which is a public intellectual. That's right. Public intellectual. I don't have a two -year love that phrase.

7:44Do you ever wanted to be a public intellectual? Or is that something that fills you with horror? It does a firm with horror, but I think the point about is a podcast you're attempting to redemption. No, just another ego trip. Well, I think we're all driven to some extent by ego. I think it's it's quite nice when lots of people listen. It's quite nice when you do big events and you know, sell out the O2 and that sort of stuff. I mean, it would be lying if you said that there wasn't an element of ego to this. But from my perspective, I don't think I'm corrupt. I find it very hard to see myself as part of the establishment, even though I probably am.

8:18I think one of the reasons, for example, I've never accepted an honour, this because I want to hold onto the idea of being anti -establishment. I don't at the moment, I can see how the UK political establishment is sort of, you know, pussy -footing around saying we have to say that Donald Trump's better than people think and blah, blah, blah. I don't feel I have to do that. But I think we both want to have an influence on political debate. I remember Al Gore once said to me that about on the speaking circuit that we all sort of, you know, do a bit of as well when you leave sort of political front line and he said, you know, it's basically, it's basically white collar crime.

8:58And I said, I said, well, I prefer to see it as a lucrative way of pretending that you're still relevant. So I think there's a bit of all of that. Well, the thing I'm most proud of on the podcast just quickly is I think when we are honest about what we don't know what we get wrong, I love the bit that you did last week where you talked through all the predictions that would have been made in 1910, 1920, a story of how everybody gets things wrong perpetually. And I do like that because what I think we're trying to do is bring people into a more realistic conversation about how complicated the world is and how even if people are trying hard and concentrating hard, there are many things that you get wrong all the time.

9:44And it would be lovely if we could develop that more in the culture because what I noticed, particularly obviously on Twitter, is people are so delighted when we get something wrong and they tend to assume that they've never got anything wrong in their own lives. Well, the Rory, you know, you did your thing about social media and you said all these people saying that you're a wimp and you're not a real man and blah, blah, blah. I got an email from a guy who said he looked at your feed and he looked at all these responses And by his calculation, the vast majority came from bots. Ah! So don't, don't overstate it.

10:17By the way, I'm glad you liked that, the Lin -Welles memo. Yeah. We're reprinting the whole thing in the new European this week. And my friend, Tommy Vita, who used to work for Barrake Obama, he said, I see you're taking it interesting, Rumsfeld Meadows. And he said with this one that Rumsfeld wrote to his undersecretary defense for policy, don't feed in 2003. And it's titled Issues with Various Countries. Okay, this will literally take me less than a minute to read. This is Rumsville. We need more coercive diplomacy on Syria and Libya. We need it fast. If they mess up Iraq, it'll delay bringing our troop zone.

10:52We need to solve the Pakistan problem and Korea doesn't seem to be going well. Are you coming up with proposals for me to send around? Thanks. I mean, it's terrifying. Rumsville, it's amazing. I knew Rumsville a little bit, as I guess you will have done too. And he was an astonishing figure. I mean, firstly, he was the youngest ever sexually defense. So he'd been sexually defense the same. And he was the oldest. And then the oldest. And of course, he spent the intervening 30 years thinking about what he'd failed to do first time you've sexually defense. So he came in with a very radical view and how it's going to turn around.

11:26Here's, whatever you think of Rumsfeld, if you're interested in politics, his autobiography is really worth reading. It's short, it's crisp, it's self -reflective. I mean, he's obviously one of the most controversial hated figures in American politics, but I think he's also very, very substantial interesting person and actually that memo that he sent to George Abbey Bush where he's basically saying you're asking me to predict the next 10 years. I don't have a clue relates to his stuff about no non -nones, unknown unknowns. He was also the only one apart from Cheney that I think George Bush allowed into meetings if he was late.

12:02Most people weren't allowed in if they were late. I think Rumsfeld was allowed to sneak into the back. Okay, now on the theme of getting things wrong, in the last podcast I was having a go meta, which is the Facebook parent, about getting rid of fact checkers and meta has got back in touch to challenge what I was saying. And they've pointed out that I said that they were getting rid of 40 ,000 odd fact checkers and that this was not true, and that I'd said they were getting rid of algorithms, and this was not true. So, let me firstly apologize. The answer is that I can't stand up that figure, and I totally take down that figure.

12:46So to explain what's happening with the fact checkers. Their fact check in system, as far as I can work out, which is launched on Facebook in 2016, relied on third -party fat checkers, certified by something called the International Fact Checking Network, and it included more than 90 organizations that would fact check posts in more than 60 languages. And in the United States it included groups such as Politifacts and Fact Check .org. And again, I'm hopefully challenged by a meta, but the story that was run in most of the presses that they were spending about $100 million dollars funding these organizations and they cease the funding.

13:23So he's going to allow in more debate around immigration, gender, and he says the reality is it's a trade -off. And this is Zuckerberg's words. We're going to catch less bad stuff, but we'll also reduce the number of innocent people's posts and accounts that we accidentally take down. Now I continue to believe this is a big mistake that he was right to be varying on the side of caution. This is a reversal of eight years of meta -policy, and it's strongly strongly influenced by pressure from Trump and Musk, and this whole idea, particularly on, taking off moderation on things like immigration agenda, it's very much tying with Trump's executive orders.

14:08Well, I think you're being unbelievably generous. I read the rebuttal that Meta said, and it's not the first time that they've complained about things that we've said. It always amazes me how these great champions and fighters for free speech really don't like it when you say things about them that they don't like. Now you've been gracious enough to say that on a factual point you said something that was incorrect and you've corrected that but on the bigger political point here at the rest is politics having seen the changes and also having seen the pathetic presentation of them by Zuckerberg.

14:42Be honest, just be honest. list. Say, look, you know, Elon Musk is ahead of the game on this. He's right up Trump's backside and I can't afford to be too far behind it. So I'm going to get in there as well. So yeah, I'm going to spend the load on his inauguration. I hope I'm going to sit in a couple of rows behind Malania and Baron and I'll be on the TV. Honestly, who the fuck do these people think they are? As if they haven't got enough power at wealth as it is. They now have to control these great believers in speech, what comes out of your mouth and mind -mouth. I'm very happy, always have been, if we get things wrong, people should point it out and wish us say so.

15:19But let's not pretend that, and let's to go back to our interview with Nick Clegg, you know, for Nick Clegg, I wish we had been tougher at the time. The idea that there is no link between the social media explosion and some of the problems of mental health and some of the violence that we talked about in relation to South bought and all this stuff. If they want us to get real, they can get real too. So I look forward to their next miscivil way. Okay, Rory, I'll calm down and take a break.

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16:59The segment of today's show is brought to you by Bulldog Skincare. Now, if you've been a keen listener, you'll know that Bulldog have been sponsoring the podcast and I, I myself already have been a user of their moisturiser this year. I'm not sure, actually, I'm not sure whether I'm quite beautiful enough to be the key ad from a moisturiser product. Is that your way of saying that you think I am beautiful, therefore I don't need moisturizer? Well, I'm definitely, definitely, definitely, there's a lot of fans you've got out there and maybe with a little bit more moisturiser you could get some of that thing of the mute.

17:33One of the things I noticed on the, when we were doing the live tour with the Mooch is just how amazingly unashamed he is about his facial routine, which I think takes a very considerable amount of time. So, Rory, Bulldog actually sent in a question. Okay. Having worked with a lot of politicians in the US and with your co -host, Anthony Scaramucci, do you think there's more focus on physical appearance in the US even for men. Absolutely. 100 ,000 million percent. You see it in the clothes they wear. I'm always struck with American politicians how their shirts always fit perfectly, which suggests most of them have them kind of tailor -made.

18:17So, it tends to be much more expensive. Shoes tend to be more polished. Quite a lot of our MPs are quite scruffy, I would say. I don't really take that much care. Boris Johnson, I always remember when I was sitting next to him on the ministerial bench I'd look up and Alan Duncan would lean across and say, waspushely to me. I noticed he hasn't shaved under the chin. I wonder which girl he was staying with last night. Yeah, I think Boris Johnson is definitely not an advert for grooming products. But I think it's wonderful that you're taking on the Mouch's leadership role. The Mouch is without doubt the rest of its politics, families, grooming product guru.

19:01He does as you say. He loves wearing makeup. Lots of politicians I do know, British and American, mainly American. Sometimes if you're on a program with them and you go in the room and they say, can we put a bit of makeup on? You put the makeup on. Now, as soon as I've got the makeup on, I want to get it off. You get one of those wet wipes. together with wives and you just take it all off. I've been with so many politicians will say, I'll keep it on just in case I get more bids later in the day. So I guess we're all very different from this, but listen, don't underestimate the thing is though, where the moot is right, don't underestimate.

19:36You stand to which people make their first judgment about a politician by how they look when they first meet them and see the difference. And I do think, yeah, as you keep saying, energy, I think you were a great one for saying, Tony Blair wasn't allowed to go around saying he was feeling ill or feeling a bit low or a bit tired. He had to project a sort of sense of vigor. It's now a cliche, but from many of my friends, particularly women, saying that when you're going to work and somebody says you're looking tired, it's simply that you haven't put the foundation on. Haven't got the moisturizer on.

20:11And that's the only difference between looking tired or not. So that concludes the special segment brought to you by Bulldog Skincare. Don't let your skin go dry this January. What do you think about the rest of the politics? Anastas, question from one of our members. And again, thank you everybody who joins the rest of politics as a member. By becoming members, we can keep the podcast going and be less dependent on ads. But it also gives you access to book discounts, early access to our live events, which we've got some coming this year. So thank you very much. You can become a member, just go to the restispolice .com.

20:49We should also think, I mean, the Catee K and the Moots, they do this kind of special sort of mini series just for members. I mean, they obviously haven't got that much to do with their time. I mean, Moots talks a very good game about how rich and well -connected he is and Catee works with the BBC and blah, blah, blah. But it seems to me they spend a lot of time making mini series. But maybe we should do one of those as well. We should do it. We should do it many times. Let's think about it. Let's do a mini series for members only. So do please join us member and we will bring that together for you.

21:18Now, here's Darryl Custens, a member. Doesn't the growth of populism globally, the closure of borders, enforcing country first policy, ultimately end up in that country, being weaker on the world stage? Is this a really interesting question? Because this is right at the heart of it. If you are a populist, if you're Trump or a man, you think closing a borders, putting your country first, makes you stronger. I mean, in this Trump's second inaugural, he had this extraordinary line, you know, we're going to be respected again, admired again, prosperous, proud, strong. We're going to win like never before.

21:54But what I guess Darren is pointing out is that you lose an immense amount too. And what America is at risk of losing is 70, 80 years, a century of accumulated soft power have accumulated global leadership of influence in NATO and the United Nations, in sub -Saharan Africa, in Asia, its ability to lead through vision rather than just through interest. And I think America will find that its global influence really, really decreases. And by crying wolf next time it cries, people may not be coming to the banner quite in the same way. I think the difference that we're seeing at the moment is we've got populism has been around forever but generally populist leaders have not necessarily made it into government.

22:41So we're now going to be able to have a better judge of this. So if you look at the two foreign leaders who are most prominent at Trump's inauguration, Malone of Italy and Millay of Argentina, their supporters will argue that they are doing what they said they would do and it's been good for the country, okay? Now we can have a debate about that, maybe we should talk about Millay's record in the near future or is the stuff that he's doing and the effect that he's having. But I think in general, if we define populism as, as you say, pulling out of international organisations using politics as a vehicle to divide rather than unite people, then I think it's hard to point to a country where that has gone well.

23:21I don't know if the, if the meta -fact checkers can maybe do a bit of research and find one formula where that statement is wrong, but I think generally, particularly in such an an interconnected world, then I'm not convinced that populism makes for effective policy. But I guess what we're going to be able to see in the next few years is whether that still applies when you have a number of populist leaders who are now in power. So we talked about Peter Heim's piece where he essentially was, and this is why I said that I didn't lie the way that Peter was sort of saying, it's all our fault, we progressives.

23:56And in Ilkhan at some of this message, he said, I agree with a lot of what Peter said, but there's one big point he's missing. Almost a decade into the popular surge, not to mention the years it was building. Their leaders and our politicians, not just angry campaigners. They should be attacked and exposed on that basis. They are hardly ever subjected to challenge about their absurd policies or ridiculous statements, and this is the UK context, and they are never blamed for the Brexit catastrophe. We can and should do all the political adjustments the Peter suggests, but that is only part of the answer now.