379. The Four Outcomes For Ukraine

24:51What happens to intelligence sharing? Because that's another big part of what has helped Ukraine. There's actually been to have the intelligence capabilities that come from America, UK, the other kind of big countries on that front. Does that, you know, what happens with that? Now, I don't know the answer to that, but when we talk, when we sort of, you turn on the radio this morning, and it says, you know, America is withdrawing its military aid and management, what is that actually going to mean in practice, and how quickly, that's what I think will be keeping people away from who gave. So there's an enormous amount of America picking up things electronically and from signals.

25:28They don't have American intelligence agents, CIA bases on the ground in Ukraine. This was rules that Biden drew up, but you will lose an enormous amount of the information picture, and the information picture is particularly critical in this war, because it's very different from the kind of campaigns that were being fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, because it's so dominated by drones. And Ukraine's ability to deal with that drones is partly these complicated American systems, along with some pretty old -fashioned stuff, people with binoculars, etc. Looking at them, you can see why you're, will keep doing everything it can to flatter and bribe and try to charm Trump into providing security guarantees.

26:12My view is that he's very, very unlikely to do that, and they need to be very clear internally about the fact that it's unlikely and set pretty clear lines for themselves on what they're not going to offer him, and when they're going to give up on this dream, that leaves them with these two options. One of them is the option of Ukraine trying to fight it alone, which probably will mean Putin conquering Ukraine, and he will then have the hope of Ukraine and then be in a very strong position to move on to Moldova, Threaten Lithuania, etc. It would be an extraordinary cry of catastrophic defeat for Europe.

26:48The second option is to put European troops on the ground, but those European troops have real problems without the US, real problems with what the military call interoperability, in other words, how these armies communicate with each other. Real problem logistics, you know, the British army would struggle to move its tanks forward. Real problems, if instead of just sitting there as static divisions, they're actually getting into combat roles. Real problems with our own publics, who would be thinking, wait, wait, wait, wait, are we actually having our own soldiers dying? But the reason to do it is that if we are going to end up fighting Putin anyway, Ukraine is the place to fight him.

27:26So that's the big decision that Macron and Stama and Mouts need to make. Do we think we're going to end up fighting Putin anyway? Is this 1938, right? Is this Hitler beginning to roll into the Czech Republic and then eyeing Poland and France? If we have to fight him, much better to fight him in Ukraine than to try to fight him in Lithuania. Because in Ukraine, we have this very, very capable, even if strained Ukrainian army on our side, and a huge amount of Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian soldiers prepared to take the brunt of that fighting. If we let Ukraine fall, and he has all the resources and assets of Ukraine behind him, Europe is then a much more trouble.

28:05Of course, when you were talking about public opinion here, fracturing, and Putin doesn't have any of those problems, because he has absolute total control over public opinion, media opinion, and so forth. I think you're right. I don't think we've yet, I think I think Kyrsten was getting there, but I don't think we've yet really confronted the public with the sorts of choices that we might have in to be faced sometime in the near future. Just on my final point, Roval, go to the break, just to give you an insight into the sort of psychology of the American side of this. Lucknick, who is the commerce secretary and who is very, very close to Trump, and he was asked what Zelensky has to say or do.

28:50And he says, you've got to say, we love America, we appreciate America, we want to buy our side, and if you think we should have peace, we should have peace. In other words, you just have to do what we tell you and take everything that we say on our word. One of the most startling moments of that meeting with Zelensky and Trump and Vance in the Oval Office with Marco Rubio looking really sort of embarrassed, but subsequently coming out completely, sort of with the the kind of lackey pro -Trump script. But one of the most remarkable things was Zelensky having to sit there and be told, you can trust Putin.

29:28You even wonder whether they knew about the history of the deals that they'd signed and the deals that Putin had broken. And that's Trump basically with this gigantic ego saying, yeah, but I'm different this guy, if this guy says something to me, he's going to be named, he's going to stand by it. I mean, it's just a nonsense, but it's a very, very dangerous nonsense. Final point, what do you think of all the Tories lining up to sing the praises of the Labour Prime Minister? Was that a good thing? Well, I definitely think Tories should be singing the praises, that's the Labour Prime Minister at a time like this, that's good.

30:00And admirable. And it's very different from the way the AFD will behave in Germany and relates to what Matt's is doing. So I think that's a good sign. And maybe it's a good transition into this question of what happens in Canada and Australia. I mean, Britain, Canada and Australia are interesting. They're interesting in what's happening on the right, interesting on the influence that Trump's having on their politics. Let's take a break at that point and bring you back on all that.

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31:37Welcome back to the rest's politics with me Royce yet. And me, Alice Campbell. Let's go Canada, Roy. Let's start with your friend, the king. So he meets Zalensky quite political. Yep, especially given Trump was making such a big deal of his state visit. And then the next day he meets Trudeau. Absolutely, the Prime Minister of Canada. Yeah, so he's got two of Trump's favorite enemies and he's basically saying, is he saying I'm on your side? What's he saying by doing that? I think he is saying I'm on your side without quite saying it. We've got a head of state who is non -political. And therefore symbolizes things by meeting people rather than making great statements.

32:21We also have a head of state who Trump adores. It seems to be that something inherited from Donald Trump's mother makes him very fond of the British royal family. So from Starmer's point of view, he is keen to use the royal family to try to keep a relationship going with the US. But it's a big strain because the king has to balance this with the fact that he's equally the head of state of Canada. And Canada is quite likely to be hit by 25 % tariffs at any moment by the United States, which will have the most devastating effects on the Canadian economy. It's been difficult because until he met with Trudeau, Zalensky, Canadians two, three days ago were very angry and felt that they hadn't heard the king speaking up enough for Canada.

33:11Or the British politicians? Or the British politicians. I think they now feel that I got messages from Canadian politicians over the weekend saying, well done, Starmer, well done, the king. That was a bit better than what we were worried about last week. What's your sense of that? Yeah, I think there's been a lot of anger and real confusion. I think the state visit went down like a bag of sick in Canada. The offer to invite Trump on a state visit to Britain. You're giving this to him while he's basically posing an existential threat. And it's kind of daily. I mean, we don't see all of our media doesn't cover everything that he says about Canada.

33:47It's pretty much every day. This is something that I think we'll see more and more. The reason they're doing this is that European leaders have decided that the fate of Ukraine is the most important thing. And the only way to contain Russia is to get US security guarantees. And therefore, they are bending over backwards to do anything they can, embarrass themselves, humiliate themselves, offer anything in order to get those US security guarantees. And the reason why I'm raising this, I want to come to you on this, is that this will be a continual theme. This is just the beginning of it. I sense that once Trump thinks that everybody's desperate for him to do something, he'll keep making more and more humiliating demands, asking people to come out and flatter him more and more.

34:40And the European leaders will be tempted to do it because they'll keep thinking, if there's even a 5 % chance that he's going to give security guarantees, we really need to do anything. And I noticed how quick they are to throw Zalensky under the bus. I mean, privately, I was shocked yesterday, by the fact that two of the people I was talking to were like, well, you know, we like Zalensky, but I've got to say he didn't handle that meeting with Trump very well. He should have worn a suit. And yes, admittedly, he was working in his third language, but really, he should have been more open to the idea of a ceasefire and this and this is all part of Europeans, Brits, French, getting themselves into a mindset of thinking, basically, we will give anything, sacrifice anything to get Trump security guarantees over the years.

35:22We have two guests on the rest of politics leading this week, Mark Carney and Kristia Freeland, one of whom, by the end of the week, will be Prime Minister of Canada. And both of them, we interviewed them separately, but both of them essentially were saying the only way to deal with Trump is to be strong. And Kristia Freeland had some dealings with him when she was in government before in his first term. Mark Carney, I think, has had dealings with him in his various roles as governor of the Bank of Canada and of the Bank of England. I think given they are in a very political environment right now, going for a leadership election, and then one of them will be Prime Minister by the end of this week virtually.

36:04You can see why they're doing that because the truth is, you said when we're introducing this, Trump is changing the politics kind of everywhere, he has absolutely changed the politics in Canada. And it means that the fact that Pierre Polyoeuvre, the populist right -wing conservative leader, who was 20 points, he was had a sort of keyer -starmer style lead, and it's slowly evaporating. And it's evaporating mainly, I suspect, because, well partly, it started because Trudeau announced he was stepping down, and people were really fed up with Trudeau. But then it was the advent of Trump Mark II and his talk of these massive tariffs.

36:49And it has had this incredible impact upon the Canadian popular debate. So all of them, Kanye and Freeland have been very, very strong, brutality tariffs, Trudeau has been saying the same. Very nice, very nice, I don't even have time to see it, I sent you a campaign video that had been put out where the liberal party had pieced together, Trump followed by Polyoeuvre saying virtually the exact words, America is broken, Canada is broken. We've unleashed a crime wave like you've never seen before in the United States.

37:28We've just echoing Trump. That's really, really damaging. And also Musk, I think Musk has been told to keep quiet, because he was going full, a bit like for the AFD, he was going full out for Polyoeuvre for a while, but he's now shut up. So I think Mark Kanye is going to win, and I think he's going to win quite comfortably. I wouldn't be surprised if he then calls an election fairly soon after forming your government. And I think it's going to be very, very, very, very close. Polyoeuvre is still the bookies favorite, but I think, I mean, it's an extraordinary story. Remember when we first did you, he wasn't sure he was going to stand, he's not even an MP, but he could be prime minister by the weekend, he could be then thrown into a campaign where I suspect, who do you trust to deal with Trump?

38:20Is going to be an absolutely defining question. It's amazing. I mean, we talk about luck and politics in a week, being a long time in politics, but the Kanye story is the most incredible thing ever. So he has been quite reluctant to get involved in Canadian politics. I mean, he's somebody who people have talked about as a future Canadian politician for most of his life, but he's stayed out. He's managed to run in leadership in a way that I don't think would be possible in Britain without being a member of Parliament to tour. It would be like, I don't know, some distinguished British central banker deciding to run against Boris Johnson in the leadership without even being a member of Parliament.

38:57Garas Southgate. That's right. Exactly. Garas Southgate. The Garas Southgate of finance, Ronnie. And yes, he's right. He looks like he'll be in there in six days time. I think in a sense, boy, as Mark Carney, the luckiest man on earth, luckiest man on earth, because he perfectly fits the moment. It's a moment where people are looking for someone who looks grown up to take on Trump. When we were infuriating the first time, was Trudeau even going to step down, even if he did step down, it looked like a complete hospital pass. Carney would take over at the very, very end of the liberal saying the Conservatives would romp home.

39:32And Carney would then spend five years to lead the opposition not getting anything done. Instead of which, now looks like he's going to be prime minister. He's going to be prime minister for a short time, anyway. And may well be for a very weird substantial time. Christian freelance has been very unlucky. I think she, if people haven't, people please listen to the leading. I think she is extraordinary. And I hope if Mark Carney wins, he gives her a very, very senior position. Oh, sure, you will. And boy, is she articulate smart. I think she's just unlucky that she's running at a time where she was too close to associated with Trudeau, where somehow, I'm just very ironic this, somehow, Carney has managed to make people think that she is maybe, you know, some of the Canadian newspapers suggest a little bit to a leetist kind of Rhodes Scholar talks a bit to fancy, which is pretty rich coming from Carney, who's, you know, very much Davos man.

40:32And, you know, but anyway, he's managed to make himself seem like everybody's dad, despite the fact that actually his lineage is just as extraordinary as hers. Both of them come from quite modest backgrounds in our birch from both of them became extraordinary, successful international figures. But she's the one who ends up becoming the elitist and he becomes ordinary Joe, which is genius. Well, the other thing that I think is really interesting is what's going on in Quebec, because the thing is about Proly Evert, I think he was so far ahead that he sort of felt he didn't have to worry about kind of peripheral stuff.

41:08But what's happened is that the block Quebec, where the voting Quebec, including those who are out and out separatists, and just to remind people, this is the French speaking part of Canada Canada is bilingual, French population, English population, and a strong tradition actually of moving for separation for Quebec, which has been one of the biggest cease and claim in politics back, have you? And a lot of people in Quebec who naturally would vote for the block Quebec, what are the separatists? appear to be shifting towards Carnie if he wins, as a way of punishing Proly Evert who has been vile about the separatists.

41:47And the other thing that's happened is the there's a party, the NDP, which is to the left of the liberals. There's sort of somewhere between mainstream labor and left wing labor here. You know, Corbyn Easter, you can, there's a sort of, you know, convenient shaw hand. But they have been losing support to Carnie. And I think this is all about now stopping Proly Evert. So he is, I think he will be losing quite a lot of sleep at the moment. Of course, it was so easy for him to think Trump's the zeitgeist, Trump's the man in the moment, and you get Trump, you play into that whole sort of popular stuff.

42:23But it appears to be about firing. And the more I've been talking to people in Germany, by the way, the more convinced I am that the AFD actually would have done better without Musk. And by the way, there was, there was the election, there was a lender election in Hamburg the other day, where the social democrats won, that was expected, but their vote fell. The CDU, their vote went up quite considerably. They replaced the Greens in second place. And the AFD, although their vote went up, it went up marginally compared to how the national vote was. So I think the election has maybe taken a little bit of wind out of out of their cells.

42:58Just to give you the betting, or just Rory, the conservatives still favour it 421, liberals 2 to 1. But when you get into the possibilities of coalitions, should it be very, very close, there are going to be more options for the liberals than they're after the conservatives. The 25 % tariff threat from Trump is pretty close to existential, which is why in the end having sounded very tough, they made small concessions last time. And all Trump, there was delay by 30 days this tariffs devastating to the Canadian economy, completely devastating to the heart of Canada and its manufacturing base. And then questions of whether we're moving into a world where a NATO exists, which includes Canada and Europe, but doesn't include the US.

43:48It's incredible. What new forms of solidarity can emerge? So big things. The last poll I saw, there was a new poll came out last night, and it was direct comparison on characteristics between Kani and Polly Eve. Kani came out on top on every single characteristic, both values and character and policy. So that's a pretty good place to be as he goes into what may be a pretty short period between winning the Prime Minister's ship, the leadership and the Prime Minister's ship, and then having a campaign. So with our three Canadian politicians on the podcast library, we've had Michael Ignatiev, Markarni, Christian Freeland, you know, in the interest of balance, we do want to talk to Pierre Polly Eve.

44:31And I don't know whether he's a bit alarmed by, you know, a couple of pinko lefties from the UK, but I think if he talked to quasi -quartang or John Major or Theresa May, he'd find that we're perfectly polite and we don't bite. So come on Pierre. Vien, Vernier Noupale. We've also got a very, very good record on infuing incumbents. So Pierre Polly, if you want to increase your chance of becoming Prime Minister, this we can show you some good statistical correlations suggesting if you come on the podcast, might be a bit of a help. Let's move to Australia. So Australia, I would bracket with Canada and the UK as interesting countries where the full populist Trump stuff isn't yet taking off.

45:17And where the right wing parties have a very, very difficult balancing act, which is how do they express their traditional right wing views without sounding too Trumpian? And in the cases of Canada, that's partly, as you said, Tarris, in the case of Australia, it's as we've often discussed, because this compulsory voting everybody in Australia has to vote, you can't afford to just appeal to an extreme right wing base. And then there's other things going on, the federal system and then there's preferential voting and various things that basically means the structures of Australian politics, 10 more towards the centre.

45:53Three quick things on what seems to be happening and then over to you. At the moment, the Conservatives are doing well and Albanese, the Labour leader, is at risk of losing his second term and this election will be very soon. He almost certainly wants to do it, but he has to present a budget because we're pretty dire in embarrassing budget. So we're expecting an Australian election a few weeks. And he will be the first Prime Minister of Australia to lose his second term since 1931. The Australian system, almost 100 years, the Australian system favours traditionally in competency and something's changed there if he loses.

46:31The second point is that a loss of his vote isn't going to the right. There's a splintering towards these smaller independent parties. We talked a lot about the teal independence who I saw a lot of in Australia and I think you saw when you were an Australian and who I remain great fans of. But basically Australia has gone from a world where in the 60s, 70 % of people were loyal to the two main parties to a world where maybe 35 % of people are loyal to the two main parties. And the third thing is there's some very interesting things happening in bi -elections. There's a place called I think Werribee where Labour just managed to get through and there's a kind of Werribee theory that Labour may just be able to fluk it in the election over the year.

47:09The talk is that he's going to call the election this weekend and name the date is April the 12th. You think this is sort of the you buy here about Britain rather Australia, but there's a danger of really bad weather at the weekend, a cyclone on the East Coast and so you may have to delay it. But his aim is to try to get this done fairly soon. Give you the betting markets again. The coalition as they call the Tories 11 to 20. So that means they're still pretty clear. Favourite Labour 7 to 5, but I think there's a lot of sort now that we could end up with coalitions having to be formed. And as you say in part because there is this sort of sprint rate.

47:52You said that normally they give at least two terms. In part I think that's because they have these ridiculous short terms. So we started this podcast three years ago. Okay. Around the time, the reason we were talking a lot about the Tills is because the Australian election was going on and here we are again. Okay. The first year I would argue that Labour's first year was kind of lost to the referendum, the voice referendum. And that's also where Peter Dutton, this right wing conservative leader liberal party they call it, but he made his name in that. Reminder on voice referendum. So voice referendum was, Labour government came in with a real belief that what needed to happen is to give more voice to the Aboriginal First Nation communities in Australia.

48:41And it seemed at the time initially when they did it pretty unconscious, pretty popular. They put it to a referendum and lost it catastrophically partly because there was a really good campaign, which as you pointed out had the slogan saying if you don't know, say no. But partly also that they underestimated the fact that there are much more conservative elements in Australia. And that slightly thrown back liberals and Sydney and elsewhere. Okay. Back over to you. So just on your point about the big parties, the combined major party primary vote at the last election was 68 .3%. That's the lowest since the 30s.

49:23So Labour won that election with 32 .6. Similar to Labour here in the UK, quite a small share of the vote. When Kevin Rudd won back in 2007, Labour's vote was 43 .4%. And I know that's because Kevin Rudd was necessarily doing anything different or that different or that much better. It's just that there's been this splintering. And that means that actually we're talking here. When you look at the polls, the polls are going to be pretty misleading because this is going to be a seat by seat campaign. It's going to be very hard to get an overall majority in this campaign because the independent, the cross -pensions, they're going to grow as well.

50:05And I think what's going to be the framing of the of the campaign, essentially Albanese is basically going to be his going to be saying this is a choice between me or him. Dunn is not a popular character. So do you want me, I'm a regular guy and I may not be the most exciting in the world. I know you're a bit under well and by everything, but do you really want that guy? He's quite dangerous. And also, they do have quite an interesting second term plan about childcare, getting rid of student debts and so forth. Whereas I think Dunn, I think his campaign is going to be very rooted in the old Reagan, do you feel better off than you did three years ago?

50:45It's going to be a very simple kind of cost -deliving thing. Well, since looking at it, is there are some similarities to Britain and in fact, to our Europe, which is that on the right, and now I'm talking more as a sort of formal conservative, the three things that keep coming up in these elections is cost -deliving. So I was talking to an Australian friend of mine who's mortgage has gone up from 2 % interest to 6 % interest, which is a huge difference. His energy bill has gone up from a promise to the Labour they'd bring energy prices down by $255 Australian dollars per household. His has actually gone up by $1 ,500.

51:23So cost -deliving. Second thing is stuff around green energy. Both parties claim to be committed to net zero, but Labour's going for full renewables and there have been some black outs and the Conservatives are saying they don't have anything to firm the grid. In other words, when the sun's not shining and the wind's not blowing, they haven't put appropriate stuff in place to make sure that the energy works and that all Labour's dreams of green hydrogen are expensive and unrealistic. On the other hand, you've got the Conservatives basically saying we'll solve the whole problem by building nuclear plants.

51:59We won't care about the fact we'll breach all the targets that we set. We'll keep doing coal and gas in the meantime. Again, Labour's saying, well, your ideas on nuclear are just as expensive and unrealistic as I did. I did some green hydrogen because it's unbelievably expensive and it's all going to happen. Pione, Sky, and the future. And then the final thing is this question around cultural wars. Labour's been accused of doing big citizenship ceremonies for immigrants who've just got an Australian citizenship where they have had ministers and big stadiums. And the allegation is that although it's legal, it's basically saying to all these recent Australian citizens, Labour did this for you coming behind Labour.

52:39And the voice referendum stuff in the background. So my final point is on how they're not quite Trump but they flirt a little bit with Trump. So just into price who was the woman from Aboriginal family background who led the opposition to the voice referendum. So her story was, yes, I come from a first -nature background but I think all Australians should be properly united and therefore you shouldn't be voting yes to this. And she's also challenged this thing that you will have heard and we all hear when we go to Australia, whenever a plane lands, whenever Australian football match which is paying tribute to the traditional custodians to land.

53:14She thinks there's too much that stuff going on. That stuff from the liberal point of view sounds very dangerous and this is me again speaking as a former conservative. For many, many traditional John Howard style conservatives in Australia in the 1990s, that would have been completely normal. And they agree with her. And they don't think it's very controversial to say that kind of stuff. But she's also been announced as a future head of the Department of Government Efficiency which is kind of musk echoes. Oh lord. I quite like all that sort of paying tribute to the original owners of the lands, they can come across as a bit sort of cliched and formulate but I quite like it.

53:56And the other thing I think is worth pointing out in relation to this whole thing about social cohesion. There has been quite a lot of social unrest and really quite bad anti -semitism in Australia that I think they've been trying hard to tackle. So I think this social cohesion issue will become a part of the campaign. Your point Roy, when you're talking about the the teals and the independence and of course it will mean that if you get a minority government of either colour, they then end up having to do these deals with individual backbenches. And of course I think it's today, I think I'm right today, that the Welsh budget, sorry to go from New South Wales to Old Wales, but the Welsh budget is hopefully going to get through today, but it's getting through only with the back -e, if it does get through with the backing of the Liberal Democrat, who has basically unspoken made the condition that the government bans greyhound racing in France.

55:01So that's sort of horse trading, sorry to animal pun, but that kind of horse trading, we might see quite a lot in Australian politics if the election goes as I think it might. Well just as we go from greyhounds and I know you're going to take us on to Chinese warships, but to underscore that point about anti -Semitism in Australia, it's very serious. Syngogs have been burned, there's been very very horrible graffiti, daycare centres been attacked, cars have been torched, and that of course plays into Australian conservative fears that the government's losing control because they would also talk about Captain Cook statue getting his head chopped off, MPs officers being torched.

55:47Right, now Alistair, I know you wanted to introduce those, something that you say we haven't been covering the British media. Well I've not seen it, I mean look I can't pretend I've followed the media that closely up. When you've watched three Donald Trump White House visit, Oval Office visits and all the press conferences, that frankly is enough media for one week, but I think it's incredible this story has not been bigger. What's happening? This has become a big issue in the Australian media, and the Australian media is pretty biased, a lot of anti -labor bias, the murder of press and my heavier.

56:19So this has been a big deal. So what's been going on is that something called the Chinese Navy's Task Group 107 is a mixture of cruiser, frigate and replenishment China, and they've been, they've circumnavigated Australia, and they've been conducting these live fire tests of their weapons systems in the water between Australia and New Zealand. Now we're talking about warships and warships have to practice, but what is really quite strange is that the Australians didn't know this was going to happen. They were alerted to it by a virgin airlines pilot who saw something a bit weird going on, Bidithim, and as a result of which, the airlines started moving their aircraft out of this space.

57:14It then transpires that China did tell Papua New Guinea that we're going to do it, but they didn't tell Australia and New Zealand. And so there's been on the one hand this, oh my god, are the Chinese preparing to attack Australia? That has been one wild end of the opinion. And on the other side, it's, oh, you're all getting carried away, everybody has to test their warships from time to time, that includes their weapon systems and so forth. But I think it's hard, particularly as we're in an election period, it's hard not to think that they're sort of flexing their muscles and showing that they can as it were.

57:54It's also quite surprising why China would do it at the moment, because in fact there's a bit of a window for China with Trump behaving increasingly recklessly. To present itself is a bit more of a force for stability, maybe even get involved in presenting itself as a possible peace broker in Ukraine. And poking Australia is a very strange thing to do. Australia is very worried about China. It's navy's a fraction of the Chinese size. Australia has just announced that it's going to, or at least the opposition, that they will buy a whole series of new American F -35s. In fact, exactly the moment when European countries are thinking we can't really rely on the US, we don't want to buy any more US defense, Australia is going all in on the US and they basically feel they've got no choice.

58:40They've bought this massive orcus nuclear submarine, nuclear power submarine offer. And now they're going to buy a lot of American planes. So why is China doing it? I don't think they're going to change Australia in opinion. They might harden Australia in opinion. They may be signaling to Malaysia, Indonesia and others that China matters, or they may have made a strategic error. Because I would have thought that China is better at the moment not doing that, and not doing what it also did this week, which is more aggressive exercises in Taiwan, release of videos showing the great Chinese army deploying for an attack on Taiwan.

59:21Yeah, very true. Surely what they are maybe thinking and feeling about what's happening in America is that Trump does want to carve up the world between three, maybe eventually four or five, but basically at the moment Putin, him and Xi Jinping having control. So that if, you know, they must be thinking, given the posture of the Trump administration of the US, they must be thinking, the Chinese must be thinking Taiwan is coming much more within our reach. The Americans are not going to get too involved in this. As for Australia, there was a poll by the Lowey Institute last year. And this is a big rise.

1:00:0671 % of Australians think it is likely that China will become a threat to Australia in the next 20 years. So I don't think we should get hysterical about it. Some people have been getting a bit hysterical about it. And of course, on talent, you know, this thing has been Australia, as we know, is a very, very large country. So you've got this navy, this little gaggle of Chinese ships going around the whole of Australia. So it's sort of pretty compelling on the live news shows to just sort of show them. So you've now got a couple of Australian ships following them. Anyway, it's certainly liven things up.

1:00:43And I think it is a very, I think it's going to be a consequential election this. I really do. I think that it's a bit a little bit like the Canadian thing. A few weeks and months ago, I'd have said, I think that Dutton looks pretty nailed on. I think Albanese might be just sort of coming back. I'll listen to a very long podcast interview he did. He's got a very nice manner. He's got a good second half of the first term record he can point to. And that's all he seems to be wanting to focus on. He wants people to think. He's a kind of regular guy. Dutton's really not very nice. Dutton, by the way, final point in him, he really did go for Trump over the Luzalensky meeting.

1:01:23He really went for him. Whereas Albanese is very much like playing the Kierstarmler role. Look, I'm not going to get drawn into commentary, albaia, what he says. I'm just going to focus on what I need to do. So we've had a right -all Commonwealth episode today, Roy. Right -all Commonwealth episode. Well, so thank you. And let's go to the other member of the Commonwealth United Kingdom in tomorrow's question time and get into a bit of Starmor and Starmor polling and British politics and how all this plays out in Britain. Thank you very much indeed. See you there. Bye. Bye.