381. Question Time: Starmer’s Dilemma

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1:47Welcome to the rest of this politics question time with me, Royce Yard. And me, Asht Campbell, and on the main podcast, Royce, said you wanted to start off with the UK. So what you want to start with? Yeah, well, I want to start with a question from Racer, who's one of our members. Thank you, to everyone, he's subscribing and a member of Trip. And she's asked, is Labour so focused on the Red Wall and reform for internationalist's Nigel Frash's right -wing party? That they risk losing people at the other end of the spectrum? I've always voted Labour. But the boasting that the aid cart was part of a political strategy was the last straw.

2:20I feel they're taking people like me for granted. I have alternatives over you, Ashton. Why do you say over to me like that, Royce? Did you see, I sent you some polling. Yeah. Done by Maureen Common in conjunction with the University College of London. Really, really interesting polling, and we can share it again for members on our newsletter. But what it's showing is that Labour has been hemorrhaging votes to both the left and the right. And so, Marissa is absolutely right that we now have a world in which basically there are four equally -sized blocks in British politics with about 25 % of the vote each.

3:00It's sort of greens and Lib Dems, Labour, Conservatives and Reform. Over to you, Ashton, this question of Marissa's sense that they're losing votes on the left, and then I might talk a little bit about why they're also losing votes on the right. There's no doubt the age decision. You and I talked about it, and we didn't hide our views. We were very, very disappointed. I was fundraiser last night for Friend of mine, Laura Kerksmith, who's a Labour MP in Ellsbury, a seat that frankly, Labour is very rarely one. And there were people there. There were Labour supporters. There was still turning up, because it was a fundraiser, she was a friend of theirs, etc.

3:36But quite a few of them saying this was really one of them actually used the same words in Marissa that it was sort of last straw time. Now, I think that there is a danger that they get so hung up on this idea and this monolithic view of what a Red Wall voter is, that they do underestimate people who feel taken for granted. And we talked yesterday about Australia and about Canada, and there is less tribalism in politics. There are fewer people who will say, I always, always, always vote the same way. One of the things that's really interesting in this polling, the number of people who always vote the same way is, is, is falling.

4:16What did you think was the main thing out of the polling room? One thing I was really encouraged by, which again speaks to Marissa's point, is that the very large proportion of people who say they would vote tactically to stop reform. In other words, Labour will get votes back, but I don't think they'll get those votes back. If people think, well, they're trying to hate reform. I think they'll get them back. They're giving something very, very different. Well, it was really interesting. And I think maybe Britain is a little bit like Canada and Australia. No doubt people are very, very frustrated and want change.

4:48So the polls suggest that the proportion of people who think things are getting worse and Britain is up 20 points since the election. So 72 % think things are getting worse against 8 % better. And people voted for change and they feel the direction, the country's going the wrong direction, the NHS is crumbling, immigration's out of control and there's no economic pick up. People seem to agree with this across the spectrum. But, and this is the real headline, there is no appetite for a Trumpian solution. And that's kind of surprising because it sort of sounds like the American Trump analysis, the problem, everything's broken.

5:24But only that category of 20, 25 % of reform voters see the world in that way. The overwhelming majority of British voters, including the majority of conservative voters, don't see the world in that way. They really want change. They think the government's being much too slow, but they think the way to change it is in an orderly process. And most astonishingly, this poll, if you, I actually was surprised by this, even as somebody used to be a politician, asked whether government should change things carefully, even if they move more slowly by doing so. The vast majority of the public voted for that.

6:01So they'd accept more careful, but slower change. And also the majority of public think that rules and regulations are important. So there's not a kind of appetite for a crazy disruptor. But boy, is there demand for change and speed? And the final thing over to you on this, what would you have thought without looking at this poll if you were to ask the general public why things were moving too slowly? Do you think they would say it was because there wasn't enough money or because there were too many rules and regulations or because people were inefficient and corrupt or because there was just poor leadership?

6:35What do you think the public's basic assumption would be about why politicians aren't sorting stuff out? I think they would say that it was about the quality of the politicians and it was about our political system. What's interesting about it is that you're absolutely right in one, but less right in the other. You're absolutely right that the number one thing that people say is responsible is poor leadership. In other words, they believe that if you have good leadership, you'd be able to sort these problems out. But they don't blame the system really. So actually only 16 % think the problem of the rules and regulations and the structural things.

7:0716 % lack of funding. And 16 % lack of funding, which is really interesting because obviously you and I and sort of more geeky social scientists will tend to look at well structures, funding, make it all very difficult. That's not the way the public think about it at all. The public overwhelmingly thinks actually if these guys really wanted to get on with it, there is enough money. The rules and regulations will let them do it and they should just push ahead and the reason they're not doing it is their poor leaders and they're pretty inefficient. They're pretty corrupt. The other slide that was probably be worrying for Stammer is that Farage is outperforming him on a huge number of metrics in terms of leadership, communication, courage, etc.

7:48The only thing in Stammer's favourite guess is that they attend to think that Stammer's a bit more cautious than Farage. They think that Farage is a good communicator, they think he's very unpredictable. And I think Farage will get hurt politically by Trump and Musk. I think it's already happening. The thing that I took as a labour supporter, the thing that I took hope out of this, and we look at is relentlessly pricing about people's view of the country and the view of what politics can do. But I think the combination of they want really big change, but they don't want to blow up the system, actually lends itself to a government with a large majority coming in and doing some very big bold things.

8:30So I think there was a lot in here to be depressed about, but there's actually quite a lot to take hope from. And I do think to Marissa's point, I really do think Labour got to be very, very, very careful about overdoing this. We only care about chasing or keeping or maintaining the red wall. It's so much more complicated than that. So according to this polling, a swing of just 1 .5 points from Labour to Lib Dem would make the Tories get 200 seats. Wow. How does that work though? Hold on, where are they winning those? I don't understand that. Well, I think the point would be that that swing to the Lib Dems would be enough to allow the Tories to just whip through in a key number of constituencies.

9:10So maybe 7080 constituencies, which Labour took from the Tories by the vote going from Labour back to the Lib Dems. It would split the Labour, the Lib Dem and the Tories would come through the middle. Of those who voted Labour at the last election and who have now say they would be less likely to vote Labour, which is something around 30%. How does that percentage break down in terms of where they say they might take their votes? The biggest element in this is people like me, I guess, who were traditional conservative voters, who voted Labour, are now switching away from Labour again. And that's why Keny Bedenock, I think, should be, and she's not managing to do this, and I'd like to get into this a bit, should in fact be understanding that a huge bit of her electoral strategy is winning over the centre, not trying to out -competer reform on the right.

10:01And the way to do it, I think, on the basis of this poll, is to say we are just more sensible and effective in delivering change. Here's our vision for AI, here's our vision for public services, here's our vision for immigration, here's our vision for the economy, and present yourself as traditional, conservative, traditional, centrist, conservators is much more likely to work than being a parody of Trump. Okay, I'll give you the actual answer. So, 7 in 10 Labour 2024 voters would definitely vote Labour again tomorrow. Of those who say they're less likely to, 9 % liberal Democrat, 9 % reform, 8 % conservative, 3 % green.

10:44It is a leakage, is it, we're in both directions, that is what Labour has to worry about. I think some of those people would be unlikely to ever to vote Labour. I think the ones that are actually most easy to win back are the ones towards the left, rather than the ones towards the right. That's my view. What would be the severe cheeky question for you, because we'll see you're on the Labour side of this, but what would be your advice to Kimmy Bade -Knock on how to do Prime Minister's questions? What's she doing less well and what should she be trying to improve? There is definitely an issue about her going in there with sick questions and not being very quick on her feet.

11:20Two or three times now, she has asked a question. Keir has essentially answered the question and then Kimmy Bade -Knock has come back and said, you didn't answer the question. You've got to be quick on your feet. I think sometimes this goes back to what we talked to France Timberman's about on leading. There was a mace about her closely followed our politics, but he basically said, why does that new leader of the Conservative Party keep doing all this cultural war stuff? Nobody cares when the world is in the mess that it's in. I think she would be much better to be using Prime Minister's questions for bigger strategic points.

11:52I always felt with Prime Minister's questions when we were in opposition. I always used to say Prime Minister's question was a strategic anvil. We were hammering out our strategy against the Conservative Government strategy. There's a question from John. What is a better way to prepare for Prime Minister's questions? So, run through how you would think about preparing for the crisis. You've set it out, strategic handful, which what does that mean exactly? That means that this is where you land the story of the week. It might be, but no. It's very definitely if you're in government or in opposition, but you're talking about from opposition.

12:25From opposition, I guess. From opposition, I think you work out what is the issue on which the Prime Minister is going to feel most vulnerable? And you've probably got a choice of two or three of those. Allied to that, what in the exchanges we're going to have will I be able to say about what we have been trying to do or differences that we will make? But I've noticed once or twice, she's gone on stuff that I think just don't, you can't sustain six questions on it. I, by the way, the other thing I would do if I were, I would go three and three or two and four. I wouldn't always feel you have to do the same, the same thing for six questions.

13:05We used to prepare a lot in opposition. And it sounds strange, but sometimes it felt harder in opposition than it did in government. Because in government, you do have much more to that you are able to say and you get into a rhythm. And I do think is that I'm getting into pretty good rhythm at prime of this question. I think he's much better than when it started. I think she needs to be more serious about the issues, a little bit more variety, probably worry less about the news, I think. I think she's sort of trying too hard to to land the clip that gets on the news. I just think that thinking is kind of very yesterday.

13:40Very good. Okay. We haven't talked about the Middle East for a while. Tim, who's a member, thank you, Tim. What do you make of the first being made over the documentary, Gaza, How to Survive a War? When I watched it, all I saw was a fascinating film showing the stark reality of war made by brave talented children both behind and in front of the camera. There was no hint of sympathy for Hamas, nor that they had any influence on the documentary. If you follow this story, this big rout about a BBC documentary made by an independent, and it turned out that one of the children presenting it was the child of somebody quite senior in Hamas.

14:12Which ties into a continuing fight that's been happening, accusing the BBC of being too pro -Palestinian and being anti -Semitic, which is raised again and again. Just before we go to the Substitutory, I must give a plug to Norma Persi's, this is also on the BBC. Norma Persi, you will know veteran documentary maker, one of the most extraordinary women. I mean, I don't know her age, but may I say I think she's been around for quite a long time, but she makes these amazing documentaries where she just speaks to the people who were essentially in the room. And this is what's called Israel and the Palestinians, the road to October 7, and it's brilliant, it really is brilliant.

14:50The thing that struck me about it, it goes right back, so you know, it goes back several decades in terms of the history, it takes you, there's lots of them of the modern day, you talk, lots of interviews, including with some of the Hamas guys who've since been killed, since doing the interview, not because I'm doing the interview by the way, but they've been killed. But the thing that you really see, one bit that really leapt out at me was Netanyahu under attack for agreeing to release Palestinian prisoners, this was in exchange for a soldier who'd been taken hostage, and lots of, including somebody we interviewed on leading, Ehud Al -Mert, and also Uzair Adar, your friend from Moss Adverson it as well.

15:34But basically that batch of prisoners that were released, they tracked most of them ended up, or planning and organizing October 7. So it's like you can make a decision that you can explain in that moment, but then once you put the sort of microscopic historical lens on it, you can go, ooh, I can see a thread there. So it's a very, very interesting, it's not biased, it's straightforward, it's all just voices of people who are in the room, amazing interviews. On documentaries before we just come back to the Middle East, for final section, a huge recommendation given the BBC gets beaten up all the time, there's a really, really good documentary on Sylenzki, called the Sylenzki story.

16:17So what about the substance of this story? The substance, yes, so Judy, who's a member of why do the analyses you provide in the Middle East often refer to the current crisis as starting on October 7th and immediately ongoing atrocities in the West Bank? Well look, we've done a lot of explainers going back in history and getting into the story of the Christian state of Israel, the Nakba, which is the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, and we've talked about the rise in Netanyahu quite a lot. We can do more on that, and we may actually do a member's episode getting into that again.

16:47But just remind people where we are, because we've been so distracted by Ukraine and Trump and Canadian elections and Australian elections in Britain, that attention has gone off the Middle East. The big story, of course, the central of all this, is Trump announcing that his plan is to remove the entire population of Gaza, two million people, push them into Jordan and Egypt. He seems to be very, very keen on other countries taking refugees. He's not very keen on taking refugees himself in the United States, he's not volunteering to put them up in the US, and then he's going to build this river era, and he's made it clear in subsequent statements that the Palestinians will not be coming back.

17:24So this is full ethnic cleansing and this development in Gaza. This, of course, has given incredible cover to the right wing and to the more extremist elements in Israel who have talked openly about ethnic cleansing and getting rid of Palestinians, but who've been held in check by the longstanding US position of a two -state solution. In other words, there should be a Palestinian state as well as an Israeli state, and here we have Trump and Trump's ambassador, Designat, saying clearly he doesn't recognize any form of Palestine, and that then, of course, goes to the members' question, which is what's happening on the West Bank.

18:00So while the conflict continues on and off in Gaza, and at the moment, there is a fragile peace fire, while there is a strong disagreement about hostage return, so while that continues, and I'm afraid, the bottom line on Gaza is that now that Trump has checked out, it has extremely unlikely that there's going to be any serious plan to reconstruct Gaza or bring peace to Gaza because that relied a lot on the US convincing Saudi -Egypt Jordan to get involved, and what he's just done is alienate them all and duck out of that whole thing. Anyway, while that's going on, on the West Bank, which is obviously that whole part of Palestinian territory around Ramallah, around Nablus, around Hebron, which is the core of the Palestinian state, along with Gaza, and which has been intruded on endlessly since 1967 by Israeli settlements, so there are now hundreds of thousands of Israeli settlements, and those settlements are surrounded by fences, and that divides that territory up into these tiny little fence communities with checkpoints, making it very difficult for Palestinians to move in and out.

19:09Under the cover of Gaza, right wing settler movements spearheaded by Smotrich, who is himself not just a finance minister, but an open settler, have been driving to expand those settlements, take more Palestinian territory, and for the first time, rolling Israeli tanks into places that they haven't been for well over a decade and undermining the Palestinian authority. I think yet again, using the opportunity of Trump to try to fulfill Smotrich's dream, which is a dream that the whole in his words historic state of Israel, by which he means everything on the West Bank right up to the Jordan River becomes part of Israel, and that any Palestinians left there either succumb to Israeli rule without a vote, or are expelled, or if their temptors are killed.

19:56Now, that's still not formal Israeli government policy, but it's definitely what's coming from the right, and it's definitely what Netanyahu has been enabling, and Trump has made more plausible than it would have been 50 days ago. Yeah, and to go back to the documentary series, I've only watched the first two, I haven't watched the third yet, but it fits with the overall narrative. The issue of settlements and the attempts that I'd forgotten that Ariel Sharan actually was, he really did try to, I think, make a difference on the settlement front, but Netanyahu then, I mean, the way that Netanyahu is not interviewed for the program, but the way that he weaves in and out of the story, and he is such a survivor, as we said many, many, many times before, but, and just to go back to what we talked about in the main podcast about Trump, and of course, when this ceasefire was first brokered, Trump was very, very quick to say, this has only happened because I've won the election, and this wouldn't happen without me and blah, blah, blah.

20:57Since when he seems to have gone, I don't know, what's going on behind the scenes, but he sort of seems to have lost interest, because the truth is, the first six -week phase ended last weekend, the second round negotiations, which are meant to be about the release of all the hostages with draw of troops from Gaza, they opened an Egypt on Friday, Israeli delegation left same day, so there is clearly a real problem here, but is there the sort of will to get over it? This goes back to the point you were making that we've sort of been distracted. I mean, I'm sure the Australians and Canadians are pleased with your assessment that would be very focused and Britain on Australia and Canada, not sure we have, would be absolutely fixated on Trump.

21:41And the truth is, I think that, I think, the media around the world, maybe us included, have to understand that part of Trump's strategy is to absorb attention all the time. And as things stand, Trump could literally fart in the bath and tweet out about it, and it would be breaking news. And I think there is a danger that we take our eye off other very, very important issues, and this is absolutely, is one of them. So thank you to the many people who actually asked us, reminded us that we haven't talked that much about the Middle East in recent weeks. Yeah, talking about, but documentaries, highly recommend if you haven't seen it yet, the extraordinary 2012 documentary, Gate Keepers, which interviews six former heads of Shinbet, the internal security service, which is a reminder of the fact that often the national security professionals, the generals, the intelligence chiefs are more liberal, more open to a two -state solution than many of the politicians.

22:41And it is a reminder that there is a different Israeli voice out there, which is being suppressed under Smotritch and Netanyahu, of people saying the only way of guaranteeing long -term security is in the end a two -state solution, because of one -state solution is a recipe for long -term horror. Yeah, there's one bit in this film where George W. Bush is standing alongside my mother, the vast Palestinian leader outside the White House. And he delivers this. And just remember what most British people thought of George Bush at the time, right? Not very much. Eyes, you know, always kind of liked him and found he a lot more impressive than most Brits did.

23:18But he does this speech, and I was watching it with Fiona and I said, oh my god, there's not a single word of that. The Trump would say today, it was all about, we have to do what is necessary to get to a two -state solution. Okay, Anders, should we take a quick break?

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24:47Welcome back to the RESTYS Polytas question time with me, Alice DeCuml, and me, Rory Stewart. I have a quick one here just to finish off a thought that you had before the break. So it's from another member. So thank you, Rafe, for being a member. Do you believe it might be possible to revert back to the international system that existed before Trump once and if he leaves parent four years in terms of security position, the US alongside Europe and even aid for developing countries? I mean, you made the big point, which is he has this extraordinary capacity to change the story every two days. And of course, the old stories don't go away.

25:22So it's difficult to remember that just as he is pulling the rug out from under Ukraine and effectively handing Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, it's still the case that Canada faces the risk of 25 cent tariffs about to be imposed by Trump. Gaza continues to be the subject of Trump's fantasy of ethnically cleansing two million Palestinians out of Gaza. He is still talking about acquiring Greenland from Denmark. So that's first point that we must find a way of trying to tell the full story and the full US domestic story, which will will return to I have next week. The incredible things that he's doing in terms of ripping the American government to pieces, challenging American justices, and providing these extraordinary currencies, including a recent one where he's just cleared a man who gave a massive donation to his crypto coin.