418. Trump Bombs Iran: What Happens Now?

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1:27Hello, welcome to an emergency episode of The Restless Politics with me, Asda Campbell. And with me, Rory Stewart. And I'm in Cyprus, and Rory is in London, but I think we both decided straight away this morning. Having said last week that we weren't going to just jump every time Donald Trump did or said something used worthy into emergency podcast mode, I think this absolutely justifies it. My daughter Grace Rory keeps saying to me, what's going to happen? What's going to happen? And I'm up till now, I've been saying there's nothing to worry about. It's all going to be fine. Don't worry too much.

2:06But even I'm getting worried now, I think this is pretty cataclysmic stuff. And I think the consequences so flee won't be too serious, but I suspect that nobody really knows where this is going to go. Yeah, I'd say I think that's you've put your finger on having. So just a quick reminder, the reason we're doing this podcast is that overnight Trump authorised the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities and unleashed these very, very big attacks, which Israel would not have been able to launch with very specialised munition, particularly taking out the four -hour base, which is this place, half mile underground.

2:49And with bombs so big that it appears that they, despite the fact it was half a mile underground, they've collapsed it. Now, why does that matter? It matters for many, many reasons. It matters first the four international law. So again, as we talked about in the last week's podcast, the international law is based essentially on a bar room brawl. So you can preempt, you can hit the other person in a bar only if they are just about to hit you. So first question, would the US have any reason to feel that Iran was just about to attack the US? No. Second question is, of course, around the non -proliferation treaty.

3:29So since the Second Mobile, we've been very worried about the Third Mobile War. And of course, in order to prevent the Third Mobile, we've been trying to prevent lots of people getting nuclear weapons and the way in which we've done that is we've created a very complicated treaty with weapons inspectors that go in. And what happened in this case is that Iran was still at least 12 months probably away from developing a nuclear weapon. There had been challenges to the weapons inspectors. But that process was not allowed to play through. Israel struck. And then Trump said, well, we'll go back to negotiating table and before anything could happen on whether or not Iran was going to return to negotiating table or not.

4:12Trump has now struck back over to you. Yeah, you said that they sort of taken out the fordo nuclear facility. We only have his word for that. And I think given the way that he presents himself all the time as everything he does is fantastic. Everything America touches, turns to gold. The Iranians are claiming that they've vacated these places. Now, I don't know that's true. I don't know what's going on. But just a little bit on the actual, these bombs and they're called this so -called bunker busters. And it is quite an operation because it seems that very few of these famous flight trackers picked these up.

4:49And we're talking about 37 -hour flight to some of these planes. So several refueling missions en route from their base in Missouri. Trump has come to that and they quote completely and totally obliterated the nuclear enrichment facilities. Iran says that is exaggerated. They've immediately struck back and hit some Israeli targets. And of course, now what people will be wondering and worrying is whether they retaliate further by planting it American bases in the in the Middle East or close the straits of hall moves, which would have a immediate and pretty catastrophic impact on the global economy.

5:31So one other thing to report, I just saw a UN's nuclear watchdog says no increase in radiation levels have been detected. And you know, we taught, God it feels agey to go now, but it was actually just a few days. When Netanyahu first launched the attacks on Iran, we talked about whether we thought, and we don't know. Again, we only have Trump's word for these things and he changes his line all the time. That's what's so confusing. He will probably say that's part of his strategic genius. So he has those thinking he's not. He doesn't want to be beaten to attack Iran. Then when he does it, he says that I was with him all along.

6:10He says he wants me going down the diplomatic path with Iran, given two weeks and then no, I'll change my mind. I'm going now. Netanyahu came out with absolute joy. And even the Israeli opposition, Yaya Lapid is saying that this was the right thing to do. This is a real threat, et cetera. So what do you think? What's your immediate incident all about? What you think Iran might be feeling thinking and planning to do beyond these immediate strides that they've worked off? Yeah. So exactly. Let's do Iran first and then we'll do what it means for the rest of the world. So the Iran thing, we talked about four questions when we discuss this three, four days ago.

6:54And the questions were, firstly, can it be done? Is it possible to wipe out this new facility? Secondly, how will Iran respond? Will it cave in or will it fight back? Thirdly, will it draw Iran to negotiate or will it back off? And finally, will the regime collapse? And of course, each one of those four things could go in two ways, which means the 16 possible results. But we won't go through all 16 of those. I think the most interesting one is probably to look at what your estimate was was probably the most likely. But I think remember on this stuff that we don't know with any of this stuff. A lot of this stuff is very on it.

7:43But let's take a pretty decent guess, which I think is a good probability, which is what you were talking about four days ago. So your instinct was regime stays in place. It's probably not greatly strengthened. There's not a huge nationalist backlash in the favor of the regime. It decides that it wants to push ahead with its nuclear development, and it doesn't return to the negotiating table. Now, what are the problems here? Well, the problems are, and this is what encourages people like Netanyahu and Trump, is that in a very, very straightforward tactical sense on the surface attacking Iran is easier now than it was three years ago.

8:28So when I was in these conversations, when I was in the British government, I just got a counsel. We talked about these kinds of things. We were very, very afraid of very extreme Iranian responses, and they were twofold. One of them was their use of proxies. So their use of Hezbollah, their use of the Houthis, their use of the Iraqi Shia militia, all these groups that Iran has funded and maintained for many, many years, and the second was direct response from Iran cyber attacks, attacks on satellites, attacks with terrorists. There are still those risks, but the big change is that Israel's attacks against Hezbollah, these were the page of attacks, mobile phone attacks, remind listeners, wiped out the entire senior leadership of Hezbollah and was then followed up by attacks on the entire missile, arsenal of Hezbollah, or almost the entire missile arsenal.

9:25So we've gone from a world in which there were a hundred thousand missiles in Lebanon about fire at Israel to a world in which that doesn't feel credible at all, and in which Hezbollah in fact has said that it is considering staying out of this. And on the Iranian side, it looks as though their ed offenses haven't worked, and the regime isn't a much weaker situation. It's extremely unpopular. I was talking to someone yesterday who's just come back from Iran about how much contempt there is for the regime. So that's the pure kind of tactical sense, and that's what will have encouraged Netanyahu and Israel.

10:00However, the big however is there's still an incredible amount Israel, sorry, Iran can do to strike back. Should it choose to do so? So it could close the Straits of Hormuz, it could launch cyber attacks against general infrastructure in the US, and elsewhere it could attack other Gulf countries, it could mount terrorist attacks against US allies around the world. And ultimately I suppose it could deploy troops across borders. So anyway, I'll pause on that over you. Let's just look at the issue of the Straits of Hormuz. So a couple of days ago, a member of the National Security Committee in Iran, guy called Bemansahidi, said quote, closing the strait is one of the potential options.

10:53There was then another lawmaker Ali Yazdikar who said Iran will continue to allow free shipping in the strait and in the Gulf so long as our vital national interests are not at risk. If the United States enters the war in support of the Zionists, Israel, it is the legitimate right of Iran in view of pressurising the US and Western countries to disrupt their oil trades easel transit. As mentioned, a guy called Spencer Hakimyan who is apparently a hedge fund founder and an absolute far out capitalist but not a fan of Trump. And he's on social media this morning saying that the most escalatory thing to do is not to bomb American bases but to close the strait.

11:39And he then posted a picture and we should, and all of us by the way, should be aware of misinformation at this time because there is tons of it out there. Not least there's been some extraordinary fake video circulating already of the sort of damage done on both sides. But he posted a picture of 50 large oil tankers that he said, according to his graphic, was scrambling to leave. And said it looks like the authorities expecting the strait to be blockaded. Other people were saying things like that, it's not as easy to close it as you think, added to which it will not be good for regime survival because he will hit them as well.

12:19But when we're talking about some 20 million barrels of oil a day that go through the Spichino Marland and Iran. And so I think that they will feel, I was talking to somebody yesterday who has been in discussion with the Iranians. And who was, got the impression that one, they were, they were pretty philosophical about the Americans are getting engaged. Not convinced that they would do as much damage, do so much damage. And also, just not listening to all the horrible word off ramp, to all the off ramps that were being offered to them. So I think what we're going to see is it reaction, continue reaction of sorts.

13:02They will, I don't think they'll be terribly, the serves him in how they go about that. They, because the whole point of the, their worries about regime change. On the one hand, you have the people who hate them, very, very numerous. On the other hand, you have people who actually, if they show weakness, they will, they will be, they'll be prone to falling. So on both sides, I think they'll be feeling squeezed. The Supreme Leader thus far has said nothings for us, I can see, very worried about communications, not least because Netanyahu put out this idea that they might, they might take him out.

13:36Yeah, just quickly to remind people about the Straits Formuse. So if you look at a map of the region, the Gulf comes down like a wedge and there is sort of the Gulf by which I mean, in this case, Saudi, UAE, Q8 Burrain. And there is a gap between the Arab Gulf and Iran, known as the Persian or Arabian Gulf. And there's a particular point where a little stick comes up to the North above a Dubai. And that is then right up next to the Iranian territory around Bandar Abbas. So it's a little narrow strip that you've got a sail around. And about 30 % of all the seaborn oil in the world comes through that little gap.

14:31And it's really important, for example, particularly to places that are near Iran. Very, very significant for Bahrain, very significant for Oman. But actually also extremely relevant to the United Arab Emirates. So that's the Straits Formuse point. Now just to develop that one point further, what are people worried about? Well, of course, what they're worried about is that this is just the beginning. Oh, there'll be a nice map that's been put up so you can see how it's there. Lovely. I'm rather alarmed how close Cyprus is right there, right in the heart of all this. Well, take take care of it.

15:09Although actually, I think in the big, big things we're worrying about, your security is not top of our attention. It's just, it's just, it's just we're just pointing out that the, and we're getting on to the whole thing about bases in the region. But the fact is that a, a sort of British citizen has been arrested here on suspicion of spying for Iran at one of the RAF base and the British air bases that are here in Cyprus. So this is, you know, this is, this is going to draw other people in whether we like it or not. Um, good. Okay. Well, just to develop this one, one stage further. So this could mean, you know, oil could go up to $130 a barrel.

15:49So it could almost double in price. And if there's an impact on let's say 15, 20 % the global oil supply, that can have very significant economic consequences for the whole world. So that potentially is global recession. And of course, the point is not just the macro economics around this. It's also the way the financial markets react or don't react. So that's, and, and, and the way in which actually new systems of trading AI systems of trading can actually escalate and accelerate this kind of volatility. So that's one set of risks. Um, the next set, which I want to get you on to, though, is the, is the, the US angle.

16:29So we've talked about Iran's options. Um, more limited, perhaps, and they were three years ago, but still very significant. And big calculations for Iran there, because of course, if they do those things, stop the straights for moves, mount a major cyber attack, it's the equivalent really of sort of international suicide bombing, because at that point, they will then trigger a very, very intense war reaction from the US and others. So big escalation risk. Let's move to the US, though. Um, so what, uh, is Trump's strategic end state, says he pompously, you know, what, how does he define victory?

17:08What, what's his exit strategy and what are the limits? I mean, this is really important for understanding whether the US is going to keep escalating this into war or whether this is the end of it over you. Well, I think he, you know, let's just figure the way that this thing is developed, which we talked, um, last week, early this week about the center, which United Nations, he doesn't even worry about it. Apps openly said Iran's not interested in what Europe thinks, they're an industry what we think. Um, so deliberately pushing the international institutions to one side, Rory's almost not his microphone off there, but he rests, I saw him rescue it.

17:48He's, he's put the international institutions on site. I mean, I would, I would let's see whether he even bothers to turn up at NATO or whether he'll do a bit like it at g7 say, well, I'm so busy dealing with big stuff that you guys aren't involved in that, but actually he is going to have to keep NATO countries on board. I mean, these alliances will matter, but in the moment he's in that state, you know, I've done it, we've done it, then we've completely obliterated them, and if they come back with anything at all, we're going to escalate. That's basically what he's saying. Quick interruption here before, before you get onto the big strategy, I mean, I also think that a really important theme here, which we often talk about is, um, the sense that he's the, in his own head, he's the hero of his own reality TV show, and he constructs shows, um, like the construction of a Hollywood movie, where you get more and more extreme crises, responses to develop the sense of drama.

18:43And as he feels he's losing his audience, the number one thing he cares about is being famous and also rich, but above all famous. And so in a sense, there was a sort of driving logic to this, which was not anything to do with Iran, was purely to do with Trump, I guess, asking himself in the White House, what's going to make the great story here? What's going to make me look like? The tough guy, is it doing nothing, or is it dropping an enormous bomb on Iranian nuclear facility and framed like that? Presumably he's tempted to do it just because it suits the reality TV show. On that scene, and I really don't want to alarm my daughter, or anybody else listening, but I think when we last talked about the reality TV concept, when we talked about it to Michael Wolfe, um, I made the point that, you know, the logical conclusion, the thing you go to at the end of the film is a nuclear war.

19:40Um, now I don't even Trump, I hope, does not want that, but you know, let me just read you a post that he posted yesterday on his social media. I'm very happy to report that I have arranged along with Marco Rubio, a wonderful treaty between the Democratic Republic Congo and Rwanda in their war, which is known for bloodshed and death, more than most other wars and has gone over decades. Uh, representatives Rwanda and the Congo will be in Washington Monday to sign documents, great Dave Rack, Africa, great day for the world. I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize for this. I won't get a Peace Prize for stopping the war between Indian and Pakistan.

20:14I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize for stopping the war between Serbia and Kosovo. I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize for keeping peace between Egypt and Ethiopia and on and on and on. He goes, no, I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia, Ukraine and Israel and Iran, whatever the outcomes, but the people know. And that's all that matters to me. What matters to him? Is this bloody Peace Prize? How does it square with what he's now doing? Well, maybe if I was to say a question, maybe the point is that he's actually, he wrote that tweet, decided he was never going to get a Nobel Peace Prize and thought, well, if I can't get something for a Peace Prize, why don't I get something for being the biggest warman?

20:52But how in this moment right now, how can you talk about Russia and Ukraine in terms of his role as a peacemaker? It's got worse. This is now getting worse. Israel, Palestine and the tragedy in this too, huge tragedies, both for Gaza and for Ukraine. They get pushed out now. Just on the strategy, Rwanda, I don't think there is one. I think it's all about the presentation and the stories you say. And the politics, an interesting one, let's just watch the mega people, Carlson's and the Bannon's and all this guy. It's already starting, by the way. Matt Gates, Trump wants this to be like the Soleimani strike, one and done, no regime change war, Trump the peacemaker.

21:39Charlie Kirk has come out. We have to trust our commander in chief. All these people, a few days ago were saying, we must not get drawn in, we must not do it. So this is not good cult. And I think that if the strategy, you say what's the end game, he set out, this is the, I don't know, the guy is very strategic. He set out a few days ago, and not very so, but we suppose, on a conditional surrender, caps exclamation mark. Well, that's quite hard, because if there is an unconditional resisterender, they are finished. Now, what this guy I was talking to, he's been talking to the reins, he did say the reins had been unbelievably difficult, hopefully stuck in there, they're always.

22:22But ultimately, you're asking me what I think the strategy is, I honestly don't know. Well, let's take a quick break. And in the second half, we'll come back, we'll take some questions.

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23:45Welcome back from the break. Before we get any questions, before we get any questions, I'm going to do that terrible thing, which how many American troops roughly do you think there are in the Middle East at the moment? 40 ,000? Not bad. Over 30 ,000. Just over 30 ,000. So just, I mean, I was looking through some of these numbers. So the American military have 1 .3 million active duty members home and abroad and a quarter million stationed overseas. Japan far away has the most engine in South Korea, Italy, and then we're on about 10 ,000. And what's interesting about the, where they are, Bahrain has the most in the region.

24:26Bahrain has about 9 ,000 US military and civilians. So you've got a lot of American bases around the place and they will be obviously concerned about what the response might be. And the other thing I think is important to, and again, we can only speculate. The role we said sort of half in jest that Sydney Paraded did last week that the soldiers didn't really look up for it and why have you? It will be interesting to see. The American military will be unbelievably proud, I imagine, that they've been able to pull off this military operation as a military operation. But whether they actually want to get sucked in in the way that clearly Hexas doesn't mind.

25:08Rubio seems to do just whatever Trump says. Van is interesting yesterday. JD Van, so we should point people to the start of our mini series on Van, which is the rest of his politics plus. But he was, he did a very interesting little interview the other day. He basically said, whatever the presidents and instincts are, they will be right. I've never known anybody with such good instincts. But he's the guy. Don't forget. Van is the guy who's basically messaging. There's all been about not getting sucked in to more wars. And one of the Democrats and senators I saw Jack Reed, the armed service committee, you made the obvious point.

25:46It's easier to start wars than to end them. He lots of people say what about Iraq, which is fine, we can talk about that. Let's develop that because I think Jack Reed's got a really profound point there, which needs to be unpacked a bit. Which is that if you're right, and I'm sure you're right, that Trump hasn't got a strategy, he can't define what victory is, what an exit strategy is, and an above or what the limits are. The problem is that if a run obviously just kills over says, okay, we're giving up on a nuclear program, we're accepting every American demand and goodness knows what else. I don't know if I have a liberal democracy and we're going to stop our opposition to Israel fine.

26:27But that's not very likely. In fact, the regime in a run, its entire legitimacy now depends on trying to mount a nationalist backlash against the United States. Otherwise, I mean, 40 years of being the Iranian regime requires that. So then what does Trump do? And this is the key, and this is where the limits and end state come in. If Iran, as is likely, signals defiance, mounts counterattacks, says it's going to find some way of secretly pursuing its program. What does Trump then do? And an almost certainly he will then feel insulted and feel he has to do more at which point Iran does more, at which point he does more.