436. Is Trump Gifting Ukraine to Putin?

0:00Thanks for listening to The Restless Politics. Sign up to The Restless Politics plus to enjoy ad -free listening and receive a weekly newsletter. Join our members' chat room again early access to live show tickets. Just go to TheRestlessPolitics .com. That's TheRestlessPolitics .com. Coming up on the show today, all the cards again are on Putin's side. There's nothing Trump will ever actually really do to punish him. What's perfect for Putin is this idea that he and Trump are coming together to decide what to tell Europe is going to happen to a major part of Europe. The central security question probably of our age is Russia's threat to Europe.

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3:08Welcome to the rest of the politics of me, Alex Campbell. And with me, Rory Stewart. So Rory, big, big, big week on the international front, Ukraine and the Alaska Summit, Putin Trump. At this stage, Nozulinsky and I doubt that there will be. And then I think the second half, we should look at various elements of what's been going on in Gaza and including Palestine action, these protests in London. Are we allowed to say Palestine action? We'll think we are. It's a good question, Alex, I think you should be careful. but you'd be in the younger demographic being arrested. Let's answer it in part two.

3:40So where do you want to start with this Trump summit? I mean, in a way, this is a perfect week for Donald Trump. Everybody's talking about him at the start of the week, about an event that's going to happen at the end of the week. And between now and then, as yesterday, he will do lots of his kind of weaves and rambles. The one that he did yesterday with Pete Hexerth and Pam Bondi and various former Fox presenters behind him at the White House was kind of all over the place. Really was a ramble. But in the end, at the end of the week, I guess it is a very, very important meeting. But right now as things stand, I feel Vladimir Putin is getting a lot more out of this than Trump or Zelensky.

4:21How do you see it? There's a really interesting theme, I think, which is true of everything that Trump's done so far from Ukraine all the way through to tariffs, which is, And it's part of your story about reality TV, which is that on the surface he changes his position a lot. So on Ukraine we've gone for moments where he's been cutting off all the basic American support, including satellite support to Ukraine. And then sometimes he's saying he's very angry with Putin and he's threatening him with sanctions and he's doing a 50 day threat. But actually beneath the surface of all this stuff, he remains remarkably consistent Because my guess is that the kind of deal he's going to try to strike with Van Mipputen this week It's going to be very similar to the kind of thing we would have been talking about in January in other words a deal where he doesn't really put Only pressure on Russia where he pushes Ukraine to make territorial concessions and he claims he's under the war And I think it's sort of and the reason I'm throwing the analogy is I think the same sort of tree with tariffs It sort of goes up and down with him Signalling that he's going to be nice to India and given the impression everything's fine and then suddenly he waxed and with it.

5:27One of the achievements of this wizardry is that a deal which five months ago would have seemed absolutely terrible. In other words, a deal where he has made it clear that the US is not going to provide more money to Ukraine and where the best we can hope for is that Europe has to buy American weaponry to send it to Ukraine. I mean, was a pretty bad case scenario is now seen as a diplomatic triumph, which Martin Rutel gets congratulated for. Watching some of his comments, and I think it's really important with Trump, as you say, to kind of try to separate out from when he goes on these weird mad weaves and rambles, and when actually he's saying something that seems to fit with the position that he's held, the position that he's held reinforced by Vance, who seems to hold the position even more strongly, is that basically we're on Russia's side in this war.

6:17And then lay in, lay in with that, this absolute obsession with wanting a Nobel Peace Prize. And if you think about these two leaders, so they decided on Alaska. And of course Alaska has its own amazing symbolism in this, because Alaska used to be Russia. And then when Al -Islander II was in deep trouble financially, they sold it to America for just over $7 million in 1867. And then of course the other kind of historical element. You used to talk about wizardry. Let's just pretend that Trump maybe did think these things through. Alaska, obvious resonance. The other word that keeps coming up in the massive buildup to this meeting is yolta where Roosevelt started a church he'll got together and said, well, we're the big powers, we'll carve up the world.

7:10And of course, what's perfect for Putin is this idea that he and Trump are coming together to decide what to tell Europe is going to happen to a major part of Europe. Because the reason why Yalta is so resonant is because it's part of Crimea, which is also kind of on the table in terms of the bits of land. And of course this quote really, first of all, something Trump said yesterday, he said, you know, I'm going to see Putin, I'm going to Russia on Friday. He's getting all a bit, we know that. Just imagine if Joe Biden said that. I'm going to Russia. I mean, it's barely, barely landed. And the second thing, he said, worry, try and pick this one for me.

7:54We're going to get some back and we're going to get some switched. There'll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both. Who is we? We're going to get some back. Who is we? Well, it's really good. I like the whose we because of course the big Missing party and all of this is Ukraine Ukraine who have suffered at least 400 ,000 casualties Who've been fighting this horrifying war who were invaded who had their territory taken from That continues to be occupied and who are not invited to the table and of course quite understandably the Ukrainians and and when the Europeans occasionally develop a back bend the Europeans who sometimes make mild comments about this.

8:40Are terrified that Trump doesn't do a big summit with Putin, particularly when the Russian presence has been out in the cold for years now, no American presence met him. So as he saved for Nobel Peace Prize reasons, Ego reasons, he's going to want to come out with a deal. So all the cards again are on Putin's side, because Putin and the other figure I guess is Benjamin Netanyahu, who you get the sense there's nothing Trump will ever actually really do to punish him. He may criticize him or complain, but he's never going to impose tariffs on him. He's never going to do anything of that sort. You said last week about, you know, he's always got this two weeks thing and he taught the other, recently about, you know, in 10 to 12 days, he's going to put these secondary sanctions on Putin.

9:20Well, of course, they've, we've passed the 10 to 12 days, but now he's got a different chapter in the reality TV show, which is the big one, the big one in Alaska. Who's going to talk to about 10 to 12 days of the sanctions when he's got this massive event where Putin's flying in on a nine -hour flight that way and he's coming up from Washington the seven -hour flight that way. We don't even know yet where they're actually going to meet. The whole thing, I just imagine, look, I'm not Ukrainian and I'm not, I'm not remotely involved in these discussions, but even I at the moment, I'm waking up feeling a little bit sick about what's going to happen.

9:53Just imagine what Zelensky's feeling like. He's got his country on the table where Putin is basically the main voice alongside Trump. And in this rambul yesterday, Trump there was only one person in this equation that he criticized yesterday. And that was Zelensky. He said, I get on fine with Zelensky, but I really disagree with him. This war should never have started. What does that even mean when he says that? This war should never have started. It's really disturbing. And the, as you say, the lack of details are revealing. Does this lovely analogy that you've found there with Alaska. And of course, you could extend it to Greenland, which is another territory, which obviously he hopes that he can buy in the way that the United States bought Alaska and another enormous territory that would a bit like Alaska, full of minerals that he could add to his country.

10:43But the other detail thing, which I thought was quite revealing, it's a small moment, but you might have picked up that when Pete Hegseth was speaking recently about NACO, it turned out that he didn't know anything about Colleen and didn't know where it was. Now the reason why that matters, it sounds like a small thing, but actually given that the central security question probably of our age is Russia's threat to Europe, Russia's threat to Ukraine, Russia's threat to the Baltics, and Kalingrad, this tiny little bit of Russian territory deep into Europe, is going to be central to that. It was very interesting that hegseth Apparently, six months into the job, seven months into the job, hadn't been briefed on it, wasn't even remotely familiar with it.

11:28That would have been very unusual with previous American defense entries who, for all their flaws, were always I fan in my experience unbelievably well -breaked. I mean, talking to American defense entries or such as the state, boy, were they briefed? Boy, could they do, you know, the talking points, you know, Kerry could always drop names of towns in Afghanistan and talk about pushdune tajic divisions, because he sat through endless briefings. Was this the Senate or the Congress hearing? Because I saw one where Hexeth eventually said, what are we turning this into a quiz show? Which of course, it was like leading with the chin, because of course, he is basically a Fox News presenter.

12:09But the point is he didn't know the answer to any of these questions. And when we talked to Seth Moulton on leading, he made the point that I'm sure this is right, that people at the top of the military, they just, they see the guys at the show. So there was a very, very funny moment, Rory, as to when Trump was standing there at the podium, Hexath and Pam Bondy behind him. And he was asked about something that Putin had done or something about some general who had made a mistake. And Trump basically said, I'm sure Vladimir, because he calls Zelensky as Zelensky, but we're Vladimir. I'm just, Vladimir's probably taken out the general and shot at kind of thing, right?

12:41And Hexath did a very nervous smirk in the background. Those tanks got stuck in the mud. I don't know who that general is, but knowing Vladimir, he's probably not around any longer Because all those tanks were stuck in the mud and they went along with the javelins. I find this whole thing So depressing and of course Europe's position You're right that there is a sort of sense of impotence at least they're kind of trying to get their voice heard Mouts has actually been quite forceful on this there's a probably some sort of conference call that they're having tomorrow Wednesday where the Europeans are going to be able to speak directly to Trump in terms of saying what their concerns are.

13:21But look, he's already talking about giving away pretty chunky sections of Ukraine and added to which Putin will say, yeah, thank you very much, I'll have that. And then you'll go away and just Lensky will tell you to get lost. And meanwhile, I'll just sit back back, and then I'll carry on. That's what's going to happen out of this meeting. Just a very, very quick reminder of, I think, for the essence of what's been happening since January, because it is pretty bewildering, and I was trying to remind myself of it, but everyone will remember that Trump came into office saying that he was going to end this war in 24 hours, describing Putin as a genius.

13:56Then there was the amazing humiliation of Zelensky in the White House. Then in March, he cut weapons to Ukraine. Then in June, June 30th, the Americans actually turned back the cargo planes, which had all the main stuff on it, had the patron missiles, had the hellfires, had the stingers. They literally stopped the planes from taking off. And there was a real panic, because this was the point at which it was going to be almost impossible for Ukraine to deal with Russian planes in particular. And then suddenly the story changed. And we had one of these kind of cliffhanger moments where suddenly things seemed to be going back in Ukraine's direction.

14:32There were stories that Trump was saying, opening he was disappointed with Putin, there was this meeting with NATO where Roto sent these crunchy texts and he was calling Trump daddy and then the Kaga planes flew and then there were tariffs being put on India because India was buying Russian oil by Trump and so all of that seemed very very positive but meanwhile while the deadline was ticking up to the sanctions which is you say he missed there were all these different texts going around three at least there was a negotiation between Russia and Ukraine where the Ukrainians had a very optimistic vision and their vision was fighting ceases on the current front lines, no recognition of the territory that Russia has taken, and Ukraine can't join NATO but it can join the EU.

15:16So that was a deal that Ukraine was happy with. Kellogg, who's the general, who's been his, supposed to be his Ukraine point man, was doing some very detailed negotiations, looking at lots of new answers to kind of stuff your French art and power would be looking at very micro questions around how we can calibrate sanctions against arm supplies against territory. And meanwhile, Whitkov flies into the middle of all of this and blows it all up and essentially creates a complete mess because he's back in the world in which Putin is saying, I recognized on yet, Luhansk, I lift the sanctions and everything will be fine.

15:49You've got to be very, very careful what you read on this because there's so much to miss information flies around. It was a German report yesterday that Wittkopf misunderstood what Putin was offering and what Wittkopf reported back as Putin offering a concession was actually Putin saying I can live with the status quo in terms of the territory that we've taken. This German report said that Wittkopf thought he was saying you can have some of that back, which is highly unlikely. So what you've got, I sense, I mean, I don't know, I can't pretend that I've told to either put it or Trump at least a day.

16:26But what you have is puting going to anchorage, assuming this is anchorage. It's basically going to say, we keep what we've taken. Crimea, forget it. Eastern Ukraine is basically Russian. Donald nods away at that. Ukraine can never join NATO, and I wouldn't be surprised if you add the European Union to that. NATO can never go near any of the former Soviet realms. We have to keep limits on the size of Ukraine military and any government which follows the Lenysky because he's toast on it. Let's just agree that you and I both think he's toast. It's got to be much more friendly towards me. Now there's nothing in any of that stuff that is remotely different to what he's been saying from the very very very start.

17:07So it's it's it's victory. He's won. Well it's certainly it's certainly it's progress on his terms and if you think about it Roy the deal if you remember for example or I guess the biggest reality TV show episode possibly in term one was Trump's summit with Kim Yong -un. And if you think about all the talk that went into what it meant to have a one -on -one summit on a major foreign policy issue with the president of the United States, Trump has given it to him and this at a time when the guys in indicted war criminal. And what this also says come to Alaska, sorry I said it was Russia a minute ago, but actually it's the United States, come to my country.

17:47That's also saying, by the way, Vlad, we don't buy any of this bullshit that you're a war criminal. The Americans are not going to be cooperating with the international court at all. Don't have any worries about that. So if you're Zelensky, you're sitting there thinking, well, yes, I've got my friends in Europe trying to bang me on the door to get me into the meeting somehow. Trump sometimes says he might come, sometimes he might talk to him after he's talked to the Europeans. But I find the whole thing really, really gut wrenching. What one thing I think people haven't focused on enough is that Trump has lost a lot of the leverage that he had over Zelensky.

18:20He's certainly not using leverage over Putin, but there's no reason now for Zelensky to accept this stuff. Trump has basically taken away everything that the U .S. provided and supported in Ukraine. All that's left now is he's saying, I'm prepared to sell American kit to European governments who can then donate it to Ukraine. And he describes this as good business. I suppose he could stop doing that, but one sense is that the arms manufacturers who are making tens of billions of dollars out of this and Trump's general instincts, which are to make money, will be to continue to selling it. So for that reason, it's difficult to know exactly what leverage he has over Zelensky to force Zelensky to accept whatever deal comes forward.

19:03And my guess is we're then going to get into a very interesting world where Trump and Putin announced with great fanfare. Let's imagine if you're preaching presumably part of this is going to be business, part of it is going to be, why don't we divide out the Arctic between us? Why don't we do some lovely mineral explorations together? You drop the sanctions, the Russian and American economy, brackets, Greenland going in some funny direction, right? And that's an announced. And then presumably, Zelensky says no, and Europe has to find a way to say no, or redevelop some kind of background because it's existential for Europe.

19:36I think that's the other thing that sort of lost in all of this. As we get dragged back into reality TV show, the scenario that you laid out, which is a demilitarized Ukraine, acknowledgement of everything that Putin has taken, no Ukraine joining NATO, is essentially the worst case scenario for Europe, that significant the increases the likelihood of Putin then continuing to push into the Baltic for example. You want to know to talk about that, the whole issue of drones in this war, because I was reading a thing the other day about the way that Ukrainians had becoming like global leaders in you saw and manufacture of drones.

20:17But you've actually been talking to some of these people involved in this, just tell us a bit about that. It's bizarre at the front line now. Now, if you go to the front line, essentially the sky is filled with drones. A lot of them loitering, and they've created a world that has fixed the front lines partly because, unless you're in your bunker, if you step outside, you're hit by a drone. Some calculations suggest 70 or 80 % of the casualties on the front line are currently created by these pretty basic cheap drones. And there are two thoughts as a kind of analog drone and there's a digital drone and the digital drone has slightly better video capacity but what you need to imagine with these these small drones is something very similar to what you'd see if you go to a park in London.

21:04Many of them are those little quadricotters that you can almost buy for your kid on Amazon. Flying around with a very small payload and then they get bigger and bigger by the time you get to the really impressive big Russian stuff which can fly out 4 ,000 meters into the sky and then come down at 400 kilometers an hour. You're looking at something that's costing you about $200 ,000. But it's the cheap swarms of this stuff that is dominating a lot of the war. There are a lot of problems around them, and one of the biggest problems is the problem around jamming. So there's a lovely description by somebody who was a drone operator at the front line for five months talking about just the technicalities of these things.

21:44I mean, they get them, they don't necessarily have commercially available cheap things, but tell them some of them simply basically don't work when you take them out of the packet. Then you try to put them up into the air and it turns out that your side is jamming the Russian drones, but the jamming of the Russian drones jams you to then it turns out, I don't know if you ever remember what you play with your kids with radio cars, but if you've got the two same radio cars from the same manufacturer, they're on the same frequency. So they can't actually race each other because they're controlled by the same radio control.

22:13So often you're on the same frequency as the Russians and the whole thing's getting muddled up in the air. And they've tried to deal with this by flying them now with fiber optic cables trailing out of them. So the way to get round your radio signal being jammed is you basically fly something in the air with a large dog leash behind it so that you're flying it on a wire. The result is that if you go to the front outline all the trees in Ukraine and are now festooned with fiber optic cables and there are hundreds of thousands of these things. Ultimately we'll be deployed in this war so there'll be bits of plastic and fiber optic cable everywhere.

22:48Meanwhile the drone operator, I've finished on this that I was talking to, there are two views that I was talking to one drone operator who's like this is the future of warfare, here are our new drones, this is going to change everything, this is the drone war, And another view, which is, no, no, the whole thing is massively over pumped. We're using them larger because we're getting them for free. And I'd much prefer an old fashioned mortar. They just drop the thing down the tube and fire it out of the thing. And every... No, it's interesting because of course it does mean that, you know, countries around the world are just looking at the way the warfare has changed.

23:18And this war, I think we still in our head have a very traditional view of what a war looks and feels like. But as you say, this is completely different to anything that we've had before. But before we go to the break, let's just talk a little bit about our friend, the subject of our first mini -series, JD Vance. And by the way, thank you. We've had well into the five figures of people who've signed up as members to listen to that. And if you want to listen to our series on JD Vance, you go to therestispolities .com. More to comments, right? You're about to bring together a series on Murdoch, is that right?

23:51We are. I'm going to sit down with our friend Michael Wolfe, who knows a lot about Trump ban Murdoch and because I know Murdoch from a slightly different perspective as a sort of political operative, we're going to do Murdoch. But the van's stuff is fascinating and van's, you know, we talked a lot on that series about how much he seems to hate Europe. And boy, love's having holidays here. I mean, you know, he spent the weekend at Chievening with David Lamy. We should talk a little bit about that, what seems a very, very odd relationship. He's then going around and And you know the Cotswolds. I mean, why does he have to have this?

24:28It's like a status symbol. I was talking to somebody who saw the security operation around Vance. They said it was ridiculous. To do a three point turn, the convoy needed about an hour. You know, when it got stuck down one of these little country roads. And so he has an ambulance going out. I mean, he's only the fucking vice president of America. When the king, when your friend the king, one is off down to high grove. What does he have? A couple of cars? Exactly, or when he's doing the Windsor Flascher, he's going round, shaking hand after hand up and the middle of a crowd in a way that American presence of vice -president never would.

25:06I suppose there's going to be real hope that, um, chieftain, which is this fancy country house, which was donated, I think, for foreign sectories to use, and which I think was donated in this clever way that the donor said that if the foreign secretary stopped using it, it could revert to the family that gave it to stop the foreign office doing what it would normally do, which was to plug it off to save money. Which I think Gordon tried to do with quite a few of the the grace and favor places as they're called. There were certainly by time I came in. A lot of them weren't being used because you know there had been these sort of grumbles about John Prescott playing croquet at Dornie Wood and stuff.

25:49Right next to me, when I was the Secretary of State for International Development, we lived in this incredible building, which was the first purpose -built government building, I think almost in the world. I was sent in Britain to 1703, the old Admiralty. And right next door was this really beautiful 18th century apartment, which traditionally was used by ministers. During my years, as a minister, nobody was in it. I can assure that John Prescott had access to that one as well. That's a very nice, that's a very nice dinner with Joe in that one. Yeah, well, I could, I could occasionally ask the security guard to let me interfere with it.