458. Can Trump's Peace Deal Actually Work?

25:21People are hoping at the moment their houses will be rebuilt. You just pointed out it's no money. Rebuilding$50 billion worth of damage is like 10, 15 year project. So people will be so impatient. Where will the jobs be? Will the borders will be open? Will you be able to have a port? Will there be an economic activity? Are the trucks actually going to be able to cross the border? Are you going to be able to cross as a migrant worker into Israel in order to get revenue? Probably not. So your family will be very, very poor. You won't have a job. Your house will be in rubble. So this government that you're going to have to be patient with is neither an international UN sanctioned body, nor is it a Palestinian body.

26:02It's a body that very quickly you'll begin to say, if you're an angry Palestinian, is this a sort of proxy for Israel? And then Israel will say from the other side, is this a proxy for Hamas? No, and also the other thing that will happen, because we've had no real international media access, I think the stories that are going to start to emerge about the scale of devastation, the scale of destruction. So let's take at face value 67 ,000 deaths. You're probably going to find there's more than that now. Those stories will start to get told. And so I just felt that there was something discordant about the tone yesterday.

26:38day. I think that if only Trump could find it within himself to say, look, this is a great breakthrough and we've made progress. And now here are the steps that are going to have to be taken, instead of which it was all, the war is over, peace in our time, the most momentous day in a century. You know, Rubio said it was the greatest day in 50 years. And Trump said, is that all? He said, okay, a hundred. I mean, it's all this kind of boastfulness and this self-aggrandizing stuff. And I have to say, I think that is part of what, this is why we're back to the sort of split screen stuff. It's part of what has allowed him to make it happen.

27:15The over the topness, going over the top, that sense of making somebody like Netanyahu a bit scared of him. But the over the topness in this stage, I think is setting us, laying the ground for a failure to understand the kind of thing that you've just said, the processes and the organizations that now have to be put in place very, very quickly to avoid the an escalation of the sort of violence that's already starting to creep in. And you've put your finger on something that maybe we haven't concentrated on enough, which is the question of Trump's attention span and patience. Because one risk with Trump, which we maybe have seen with Putin Ukraine, where he seems to have just lost interest now and given up, is as you say, that he may have felt he's done his job now.

27:55He did Alaska. The Ukrainian government, his job was Alaska. Wall to wall attention. I'm doing something big. I'm doing something bold. You've got two weeks, Vladimir. Well, Well, how many weeks ago was that? And actually, we should just give a shout out to our current leading interview with the former Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmitry Kaleighb. I mean, it's amazing how he somehow managed to stay positive and optimistic. But I don't think he's in any doubt, under any illusion, that the Ukrainians are not as reliant upon the Americans as they were. If we follow up your instincts on his patience, the only way of getting to a peace is continual pressure day in, day out on Hamas, who need to be made to disarm, withdraw, and on Israel, who need to be convinced to withdraw and to give the freedom and autonomy to Gaza to allow it to reconstruct, flourish, grow.

28:52And how's that going to happen? well, that pressure on Israel can only come from one place. It can only come from Trump and the US. And what I think I fear, we don't know with Trump because he's so unpredictable, but there's definitely a chance that he loses interest and he feels he's done the heavy lifting and he's not going to continue to apply day in, day out pressure if, for example, Israel refuses to withdraw from the lines it's currently at. Because the most optimistic scenario that I can see at I hope I'm wrong, but the most optimistic scenario I can see at the moment is go forward six months, 12 months.

29:29Gaza is very poor, very high unemployment rates, still in rubble. Israel is still mounting strikes and military raids. Hamas still there on the ground, not fully disarmed in a very ambiguous position with the government. No opening of ports, no opening of airports. The US largely disengaged. No two-state solution. No political sovereignty from Palestine. Basically, simply Gaza in a more unstable, poorer situation than they were in before October 7th. You'll still have the settler movement focused on development in the West Bank. I thought the King of Jordan made a very interesting intervention yesterday.

30:08He basically said, this is a great day. They're all saying that. But unless there remains a commitment to a Palestinian state, then the war effectively isn't over because that's what they've all been fighting over for so long so i think we're in a very very unpredictable vulnerable quite dangerous place right now and of course so many people have have bought into and i don't want to be a killjoy i'm really don't i mean i get the joy i get all that i understand why people were so excited and so happy and and what have you but i think we're kidding ourselves we think this is this is the end of or if this is peace they're not going to be at peace with the and just think of all the think of all the resolution that's going to have to be done.

30:52Think of all the people who are going to feel more radicalized, probably on both sides. And so I think unless there's that understanding of the processes that have to put in place, and going back to the Good Friday Agreement or going back to Bosnia, the big day, Good Friday was not the end of it. That was the framework. And what we've got now is the beginning of the framework. And Netanyahu is selling a story to the Israeli people of unconditional surrender by Hamas. This is a great victory. But the truth is, Hamas has not disappeared. There are still thousands of them around, clearly. And what we've learnt here is what we should have learnt in Vietnam, what we should have learnt in Afghanistan, which is that unless you have a political path, unless you have economic reconstruction, you're not going be able to destroy an ideology.

31:44The idea that you can just drop bombs, kill 67 ,000 people, and eliminate a movement like Hamas has never worked. It didn't work with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Yeah, and from the Israelis' perspective, they hear you say something like that, and they'll say, yeah, and don't forget, part of that ideology is to wipe us out, so we still feel at risk. The fundamentals are still not on the side of a long-term peace, I guess is what we're saying. Yeah, it's the thing we always believe. I think there's wisdom in it, even if it's considered liberal wishy-washy nonsense, right, is that long-term peace requires, in the end, both Palestinians and Israelis feeling safe, prosperous, and having their own legitimate governments.

32:25And nobody is offering that to the Palestinians. So it's very difficult to believe that these problems are going to go anywhere, so long as the only approach is one of violent military force. We should also say to our listeners that our fellow Goldhanger podcast, empire has done a series on the long history of gaza all the way back 11 part series starting in 1450 bc i'm also going to give a shout out to a friend of mine don mcintyre remember don mcintyre middle east correspondent and he wrote a brilliant book about gaza a few years ago he's now updated it i think it's only an e-book now but it's and it's called gaza but i think we need we need because a lot of people seem to still seem to think this whole story started two years ago it did not it's been around.

33:10That's why I think it might be a little bit premature to say it's now all over. Final shout outs from me, some great European and American commentary for people who want to go deeper. On the American side, you can see the spectrum covered by David Ross, Phil Gordon more on the Democratic side, Elliot Abrahams more on the pro-Israeli Republican side, Eust Hiltemann from the International Crisis Group, and a lovely article actually on an exhibition that's been done in Paris on archaeological finds in Gaza, covered by Josephine Quinn and the Lund Review of Books. Excellent. Well, that's enough plugging.

33:47We'll go to a break. This episode is brought to you by Google. We won't fully realise the potential gains of AI unless we make it accessible and useful for everybody across the whole UK workforce. That's why Google, for example, are working closely with trade unions. AI and trade unions may not sound like the most natural of partners, but the union movement has got a proud history of supporting members from across the economy and preparing them for the ever-changing world of work. That's why Google partnered, for example, with the community union in the UK on a people's first skills pilot called AI Works.

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37:39welcome back to the rest of his politics with me rory stewart and me anister campbell and you know what we were doing exactly a year ago this week last year was probably uh i mean not not for you but for me probably the biggest audience who ever played you remember us doing o2 difficult to forget that was quite a thing it was on stage almost and it was set up like a boxing ring. Yeah, but we didn't fight. So we had sort of 14 ,000 people in the round peering down at us, following on from the Royal Albert Hall. That was a pretty bizarre moment in the world of podcasting. It was. It was a good moment.

38:13I enjoyed it. And now we're going to do it all again. We are. We're off on tour again. And this time we're going to do London, Bournemouth, Manchester and Glasgow. You're going to bring along the bagpipes as usual. So it's 9th to the 16th of November in all of those dates. So if you want to get tickets to any of those shows, just go to therestispolitics.com. Dead easy. We'll be able to cover the whole world, delve into some of your lessons on leadership and much more. Yeah. I also wondered, do you think it'd be, I'm now throwing this out as a live idea. Don't you think we should show some of these impersonators, particularly of you?

38:46There's some great impersonators online of Rory Stewart. Really? I think the ones of you are much better than the ones of me. Anyway, we're looking forward to it. Now, Latin America. We don't talk enough about Latin America because it's so interesting. There's so much interesting stuff going on there. But let's do a bit of Argentina and a bit of Peru. And maybe a bit of, I've got a really interesting thing about Chile as well. Okay. Well, a little bit of framing. When Trump came in, and I'm sorry it all keeps coming back to Trump, but a loss of what he was obsessed with relates to what's happening in Latin America at the moment.

39:18And probably, I guess, three things. One of them, immigration. So Venezuela, 8 million people have left Venezuela. Cuba lost, I think, 20 % of its population in the last five years. And that goes to stuff we talked about, right? Colombia refusing to accept migrants. Second thing, crime. Cocaine production consumption has doubled in the last 15 years. New markets have opened up in Latin America itself and in Asia, which has then led to this incredible explosion of criminal gangs in countries which previously were considered pretty safe in Latin America. And then the third thing is this whole question of small government against big government, which brings us to Millet.

40:03Anyway, where do you want to go? Let's start with Millet because of course Millet is this extraordinary, it's quite a strange character. Very, very, I know you're obsessed with politicians and their hair. He's got, he's unique. The hair is unique. I think he's called the wick. That's one of his, one of his. And of course you mentioned chainsaws in relation to Khashoggi's murder. His chainsaw was a symbol to say, I'm going to cut the state down to size. Then taken by Musk, which shows that the whole world isn't all about Trump influencing other people. It's sometimes about other people like Orban and Millet influencing Trump.

40:38Absolutely. And also, both Kimi Badenow, the conservative leader here, and Nigel Ferraris, the reform leader, have both said that Millet is something of a role model and example. So, he's become a global brand. I mean, who would have thought an Argentinian president would become a global brand? Well, we've heard of Perón. Of course, but that's some time back. That's some time back. You heard of Maradona, I played with him. And so what happened recently is that there were local elections in Buenos Aires, a big part of the country, and Millet did very, very badly. Having campaigned personally and hoped that he'd do well.

41:12said that that would sort of turn it around. And that left the markets a little bit spooked. He has come out and said he's going to change his style a little bit. I think the chainsaw is going to be left in the locker. But he's now got really much bigger elections coming up on October the 26th. They have midterms like the Americans do. Half of the lower house and a third of the Senate are up for elections. So these are big, big elections. And although his chainsaw approach and sort of absolutely disruption and all that, it has brought inflation down considerably. Yeah, let's just remind people a little bit on the economy because we came back into this.

41:49And again, in terms of self-criticism, I certainly was a little bit skeptical about whether he would be able to pull this off. The conventional wisdom, of course, in all these cases is it's much more difficult than it seems. And Argentinian politics was difficult and it was difficult handling the fact he didn't have a majority in the lower house or the upper house. So how was this guy who called himself an anarcho-capitalist, who was basically a TV pundit, going to be able to do all the stuff that he wanted to do? He would inevitably, the story was, at least from my Argentinian friends, be blocked by the system.

42:25In fact, he came in and he did these extraordinary things. I mean, he cut government spending by something like 35%, which was removing something like 5 % of GDP. He got rid of all the subsidies on public transport, heating, groceries. He fired tens of thousands of civil servants. He cut, I think, pensions by 30%. And inflation went down from 144 % a year. So if you're running a small grocery shop in Buenos Aires, you were putting up your price maybe in the morning and the afternoon, and then again two days later, to inflation now being only projected to be 25 % a year instead of 144 % a year.

43:10So all that seemed amazing. And he remained remarkably popular, over 50 % of popularity even a year, and despite the fact the poverty rate was soaring, as we talked about, despite the fact many people were beginning to feel the strain until recently when prices have got out of control, it's been difficult supporting the peso etc i think what's happened is that he's focused understandably on inflation he's managed to get inflation down substantially but the economy insofar as it is performing more generally is not doing terribly well and then they had this problem with the peso um and this is where he called in big a really big favor from trump and from scott besant trump has said that he's his favorite other president.

43:54Obviously, he's his own favorite, but Millet is number two. Besant has waxed lyrical about Millet and essentially said Argentina has to be safe. So they're offering them this$20 billion currency swap. Which again, is absolutely unprecedented. I mean, the only closest president of the US ever doing this before was Clinton doing it with Mexico. But Clinton doing it with Mexico, which again was$20 billion, was in a very different environment in the 90s. Clinton would say, I guess, in his defense, well, Mexico was so integrated with the US economy, it has this enormous border that it shares. At that stage, Mexico wasn't tapped out on its IMF loans.

44:34Argentina, you would have thought in a normal world, if you were a MAGA base, would be the classic example of something which is not in the US national interest, doesn't really have much trade with the US, doesn't share a border with the US is totally maxed out on its international credit lines. Why on earth would the US taxpayer be putting$20 billion behind Millet? Politics. Also, I don't know the answer to this, but did Clinton get Congress backing for what he did? Because that's the other thing that's happened on this. There's no even mention of whether Congress is involved in this. But whether these elections, what's happened is the markets have got a little bit of scoop.

45:10His big thing was macro stability. And they got a little bit of scoop that maybe the public are not quite as supportive of this as they thought, and therefore where is that going to go into the future? His ratings have started to drop. And then, of course, the other story that keeps coming up - Although that 20 billion has massively strengthened him with the market, strengthened his popularity. I mean, it's a real life. I mean, it doesn't, in a sense, the numbers don't completely matter. It's a bit like the way that the US deterrent used to work with NATO. It's not really the numbers. It's psychologically the sense that best sense behind you.

45:39The other sort of story that has hit into his popularity and the sense competence is our old friend corruption. There's a couple of big corruption things going on, in one of which, although she denies any wrongdoing, his sister, Karina, who is also his chief of staff, and his closest advisor by some stretch. I mean, this strange thing about Millais is he doesn't appear to have much of a life outside the public profile. I mean, he's very, very, very close to his sister. And she's got caught up in these leaked sort of conversations that she got caught up in. She was implicated in one of these big corruption scandals.

46:17So that has affected him as well. So if these elections, October the 26th, go badly, then given how the markets got spooked about a local election in Buenos Aires, then we shall see. We saw yesterday with Orban and Trump will now feel that he can get directly involved in these elections in a way that I don't think any previous president has ever done. Which brings us, I guess, to Peru. So the big story is the story of Latin America, which has been had a very, very strong influence of left wing populists. And we can give many, many examples of this ranging from people like Boric in Chile, who's turned out actually to be pretty respectful, respectful of human rights, respectful of the Constitution, through to people who are slightly further out on the edge.

47:07So we'll talk about Pedro Castillo, but we can also talk about the Colombian president and then the far edge of left wing populism in Latin America, which is, of course, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba. And in this incredibly polarized world, all the people who are instinctively on the right in Latin America, who think that their states are too big, they're spending too much money, they're too much and hooked unions, instinctively think that any left wing movement, doesn't matter whether it's Lula or Scheinbaum in Mexico, the basic right wing critique would be these people are taking their country towards Venezuela.

47:50And actually, the truth is that many of them are, in a British context, kind of versions of Jeremy Corbyn. They are people with strong left-wing identity. They often talk about Marxist-Leninism, but they're not actually locking up, well, not in all cases locking up political prisons. It's like Michael Reed would say, it's like, I guess, Jeremy Corbyn with much weaker institutions. And against that is the right-wing push. So, the right-wing push is Millet doing this sort of radical stuff and restretching. And Bukele, who in El Salvador has come in, arrested 80 ,000 people, detained them without trial, and dropped the homicide rate in El Salvador to the lowest homicide rate in Latin America.

48:30So a lot of people are looking at this and thinking, if we think about our problems, crime, immigration, security, well, actually, you know, we're not going to exactly do what Bukele is doing, but they're beginning to be pretty tempted towards that authoritarian line. Trump is getting ever closer to it. There was a piece I read this week by the former chief of staff to ICE under Biden. I can't remember where I read it, but he was basically saying that what ICE is doing now is, you know, we're almost moving beyond any previous American definition of authoritarianism. But I think what's in, and Bukele, you know, I mentioned Sisi, Trump saying, I'm with this guy in crime.

49:11He's a big fan of Bukele. Yeah, and wants to send his people that. What's been going on in Peru, though, I mean, you regularly and rather gleefully, I fear, sometimes talk about Keir Starmer's terrible, terrible ratings. But Dina Boloate, who until last week was the president of Peru, she was down at 2%. And I never quite understand a negative word. Does that mean like negative 98 % or am I getting confused? No, 2 % means that she has 2 % approval. That means that 2 % out of 100 think she's doing a good job. Brilliant. Well, it was hovering between 2 and 4. So just to remind people, sorry, because we covered it at the time.

49:50And if real geeks can go back to our original podcast when this happened. But this figure, Pedro Castillo, who was a primary school teacher from a pretty simple rural background, ran on the back of something called the Free Peru Party, which is, you know, proper Marxist-Leninist. I suppose more intellectual listeners from Latin America, definitely familiar with Jose Carlos Mariatuque, who was this great Marxist intellectual from the 20s and 30s. He won, but not long after he got into power, he decided to do a weird reverse coup against himself, which is although he was actually the president, he tried to run a coup d 'etat against Congress and judiciary.

50:29They then impeached him, at which point his deputy, who was this slightly sort of anonymous figure, became, to great applause, you know, the first female president in Peru. a few questions about just how able she was, whether she wasn't actually a little bit mediocre, but anyway, she got in. And she was sort of sustained by Congress, including being sustained by Fuhimori's daughter, who's traditionally from the right. There were then protests. The army was very, very violent. People were killed. So now there's a whole human rights story going on. And the Privyan economy that did pretty well from the reforms of Fuhimori through to 2016, beginning to falter, really losing its way.

51:14The party's giving up on ideology and becoming pretty much kind of corrupt party machines. And now this. Baluati was the sixth leader of the country since 2018, and three of them are in jail. A lot of this about lawfare, isn't it? We talk a lot about this complicated question. You know, on the one hand, we support the independence judiciary. On the other hand, And in many Latin American countries, there's a sense that they're just used against your political opponents, which almost certainly is what Trump is doing and will probably happen to Trump when he steps down. And also, it's strange how you have high-level corruption and what might be termed low-level corruption.

51:51There's probably a bit of both going on here. But the media and the opposition became obsessed with her seeming fondness for Rolex watches. and her house actually at one point got raided so they could establish just how many Rolex watches she had. Then there was another story in that she went off to have a nose job while she was meant to be doing some sort of... It's a little awkward because if you're coming from the Marxist-Leninist less, I mean, originally sort of Vladimir Chiron, who again was put in jail so couldn't run, which is why Castillo came in, and she was coming in on that ticket to be collecting Rolex watches and all that, etc.

52:27But you mentioned crime earlier, crime and the murder rates and contract killings have just been going off the charts. So what's next? I don't know what's next. What's happened now is that under their constitution, she didn't have a vice president. Normally the vice president would take over. So it's gone to the president of the Congress, a guy called Perry. He's just survived rape and sexual assault investigations. So it's a mess. It's a total mess. There, I guess the question is, what's next for countries like Peru? Are they going to, and I think this will be an opportunity for mini bukeles.

53:04So we're seeing sort of versions of this, Paraguay, Costa Rica, Panama. I mean, of course, the pro-Trump right-wing candidate in Panama is feeling pretty uncomfortable because Trump's still talking about taking over the Panama Canal, confusing everybody. But is there going to be room when the election comes for somebody trying to run on a Mille or Bekele ticket? Because the situation in some of these countries, I mean, we talked in January of last year about this amazing moment where Ecuador, which had been one of the most peaceful countries in Latin America, suddenly found criminal gangs take over a TV station live on air.

53:40Peru, we got a producer, produced this extraordinary figure that in 2024, 50 % of the homicides in Peru were contract killings. The big story at the moment has been an attack on a local popular Latin American band that didn't pay extortion money. That turned out to be the final trigger. You know, sometimes it takes a tipping point that feels a bit odd, but there's this popular band that got caught up in a shooting. And I think it was just the point at which the politicians thought, you know, enough is enough. And the vote, I think it was 124 zeros. She got literally zero votes. This was the eighth impeachment attempt, and she got zero votes.

54:19And she was taken out under a clause for mental incapacity. Yeah, moral incapacity. Moral incapacity. No, no, it was worse than that. Permanent moral incapacity. In other words, there is no coming back from this. Liz, before we go, just when I mentioned Chile, you know how I'm a big fan of compulsory voting. Well, they've got an election. Chile's got a presidential election on November the 16th. also senate and 155 seats in the lower house now i didn't know this right they've had compulsory voting they had compulsory voting but voluntary registration okay so if you registered you had to vote but you didn't have to register then in 2012 they went for automatic registration so everybody got registered and voluntary voting yeah and they've now decided to put the two together there.

55:07They've got automatic registration and compulsory voting. Round of applause for Chile, I say. Round of applause for Chile. And fingers crossed, because obviously you and I are big believers in compulsory voting. I think a lot of people in Chile are pretty skeptical about Boric, this young student leader. He's only allowed this one term, though. Right. He can't stand it. He doesn't. Exactly. But I do want to do a little shout out from people who thought he was going to go for Venezuela and Nicaragua. It's not been like that. He has been actually more idealistic, more respectful towards human rights than many people anticipated.

55:41And as a, I would argue, a sort of better version of the left-wing populist leader in Latin America. Well, in which case the Communist Party candidate won't come through. Well, listen, we've got a question time tomorrow. We're going to do something a bit different. We're going to be relentlessly positive on the back of a complaint that was delivered to me by hand by one of our listeners who said we promised such an episode almost three years ago. Let's try it. Take care. Bye-bye.

56:28LifeLock also fixes identity theft, guaranteed or your money back. Stay smart, safe and protected with a 30 day free trial at LifeLock.com slash podcast. Terms apply. Hi, everybody. It's Dominic Sandbrook here from the Rest is History podcast. And I have a special message to listeners of The Rest is Politics. I know on The Rest is Politics, you hear all the time about Nigel Farage, about the threat to reform, the specter of Brexit, the anti-immigration stuff that's so common. Do you want to know where all of that comes from? because we on The Rest is History have done an episode exploring just this.

56:59It's an episode looking at Enoch Powell, perhaps the most controversial character in modern British history and his rivers of blood speech. And we will be digging into his effect on the Tory party, his role as a kind of intellectual godfather for reform, his importance in the wider story of race and immigration in Britain. So tune in to The Rest is History wherever you get your podcasts and look for our episode, Enoch Powell, Rivers of Blood. Is this the man who broke British politics forever?