520. Orbán Ousted: Is The Tide Turning Against Far-Right Populism?

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1:43of Viktor Orban's rule of Hungary. 16 years, four terms, enough time to create what many people have called a mafia state, and where Orban had become so much more than the leader of a country of fewer than 10 million people. He'd become a symbol of far-right, kleptocratic, authoritarian nationalism, which, because Donald Trump is back in the White House pursuing much the same agenda, and often citing Orban as an inspiration, many had assumed it was the winning formula for modern politics and modern campaigns. Orban has lost and he's lost big, so big that he had no option but to throw in the towel long before all the votes were even counted.

2:26But he's not the only loser. Trump lost, Vladimir Putin lost, Milley, Maloney, Netanyahu, plenty of fellow right-wing leaders broke that basic rule of not interfering in other countries' elections to say, vote or ban. And they lost too, because in so doing, they put themselves and their politics on the ballot alongside him. And that's why this election is not just about Hungary, which is a landlocked country that could fit inside Indiana, a single American state. It's seven times smaller than Texas and 180 times smaller than Russia. This is about what it says about what happens when the politics and policies of far-right nationalism are actually exposed to real challenge and real scrutiny.

3:15And it shows they can be beaten. Now Trump went further than most. He sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio to campaign for Orban and then the vital final week he sent Vice President J.D. Vance who seems to have been as effective at driving up the Orban vote as he was at leading the talks in Islamabad to end the war with Iran. That guy is turning out to be quite a loser. On election day itself, Trump and his family and friends, who like Orban's friends and family are getting very rich on the back of their guy being in power, posted relentlessly on social media, urging Hungarians to vote Orban to have a direct line to the White House.

3:57And guess what? The Hungarians' queue from dawn voted in record numbers, 80 % turnout, to say, no thank you Trump, no thank you Musk, no thank you Mr Vance, take your interference elsewhere. What was it President Zelensky said in our interview that was out earlier this week? I'm not sure sending JD is a good idea for Orban. Well, how right he was. As for Putin, he sent in money to burn and agents galore. Where once the Kremlin enemy to be plastered all over Orban's election posters was George Soros, now it was President Zelensky and President Ursula von der Leyen. Anyone in Budapest in recent weeks would have thought that they, not Orban and Magyar, were the candidates.

4:43And guess what? It seems a lot of Hungarians seem to think that Ukraine is a country worth backing, Russia is a country worth fighting against and the EU a body worth being part of and worth supporting So the money spent on bribing voters has been wasted The wind was so big that the Kremlin's planned operation to claim that Magyar had stolen votes Get this, they were even going to announce the setting up of a democracy protection unit was not even fully activated as in Moldova where they launched a similar operation against Mayasandu the Russians head home defeated for now they'll keep going so Trump loses Putin loses Nigel Farage Marine Le Pen Alice Vidal and the AFD they lose because the playbook they thought would see them coast to power it looks a lot less solid than it once was closeness to Trump fondness for Putin love of money and using politics to get rich, all now exposed as real handicaps, not assets.

5:48And it's about time their opponents understood they are there to be taken apart with greater confidence than thus far shown. What Magyar has shown is that with the right strategy, with confidence and conviction, these people can not just be beaten, they can be thrashed. Now don't get me wrong. Peter Magyar is a very unlikely hero for anyone on the progressive left of politics. He himself is a former leading light in Orbán's Fidesz party. He's well to the right of some of the European political figures who've been rejoicing at his win. But he matched the strategy to the needs of the time and he deserves all the plaudits coming his way for that.

6:30Now the hard part begins, though the scale of the win means he should be able to undo most of Orbán's egregious changes. I hope some of you have listened to the first part of our mini-series on populism, in which we've been talking to Labour MP Liam Byrne about his book on why the populists are winning and how to defeat them. Now, we delayed part two for a week because of the Zelensky interview. That'll be out on Friday. But Magyar's campaign fits with some of the advice that Liam gave in last week's episode. You have to listen to voters and you do not condemn them because of their different views.

7:08You respect the differences and you try to persuade them to your side. Fidesz, for example, thought that they had a monopoly on Hungarian nationalism. Magyar developed a language and a style that spoke to a more inclusive version of it. Like Trump, Orban portrayed his own politics and his own supporters as the country, casting all critics as outsiders. Magyar sought to appeal to Fidesz voters as part of a shared political and national community, and it worked. I often talk, as you know, of the three Ps, populism, polarization, post-truth. Liam Byrne says the populists rely on three A's, appeasement, autocracy, and avarice.

7:53appeasement means making people feel you can't beat them so you may as well join them sit it out Magyar refused to accept you couldn't win no to appeasement no to doing deals civil society despite massive pressures on them never gave up and they and Magyar exposed the autocracy and the avarice not to claim some kind of moral superiority but to show that the living standards of ordinary people were harmed by the corruption of the ruling elite. And this is where Orban really screwed it up for himself. I talked to Dominic Sandbrook about this on the podcast last week when he stood in for Rory, pointed out that if you win power by posing as a man of the people, fighting a corrupt elite, and you become the corrupt elite yourself, don't be too shocked if the people turn against you.

8:46Now, Putin could get round that by going full-on dictator. Orban, not least because Hungary is in the European Union, more constrained. But the more EU resources seem to be landing in the hands of his inner circle, his best friend, a former gas fitter, becomes the richest man in Hungary, the more Magyar was able to relate the industrial-scale corruption to people's everyday lives. And part of Orbán's hubris was that because he developed a near-Putin-like grip on the media, he assumed that their 24-7 propaganda on his behalf would work. But real public opinion, much of it, stopped listening ages ago.

9:24It's why, when I tried to talk him into coming on the podcast, when I met him at the Germany-Scotland game in the 2024 Euros, I said to him, you can't spend your whole time just preaching to the converted. You need to be challenged a bit. He was very charming about it, as the film of our chat recorded, but he didn't agree. I have to say, Victor, the offer still stands. I suspect the same hubris made him think that Hungary would be proud that the leader of their little country was so admired by Trump, Putin and all the rest. But no, it turns out they were ashamed of it. Trump is so narcissistic he cannot see what is plain to most of us that among all but the true believers, his brand is truly tanking.

10:07Anthony Albanese in Australia, Mark Carney in Canada, and Magyar. Trump has helped them all win. Might I suggest, Keir Starmer, that he leans a little harder into the opprobrium Trump keeps sending in his direction. Embrace it. Wear it as a badge of pride. Check out Mark Carney's speech at the weekend. No messing. Check out Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish Prime Minister. Is he backing down in the face of all the threats and the insults, far from it. The Trump illusion of omnipotence, like the Orban myth of invincibility, is wearing thin. Now, as with Donald Tusk, who defeated the far right in Poland, so Magyar will now find considerable resistance from the forces Orban has cemented into all aspects of Hungarian life.

10:53But the scale of his victory really helps. Orban conceding defeat so quickly, whatever the motivations, was a signal of that. It means Magyar might actually be able to deliver on campaign promises, including systemic institutional change to unlock more than€6 billion of EU funding. And the other big winner, thank heavens, is Ukraine. Orban has been doing Putin's bidding for too long. The leaked conversations recently between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Hungarian counterpart expose that for all to see. Orbán has sought to block and undermine EU support for President Zelensky at every turn.

11:33It's now likely, definitely possible, probably probable, that the long-promised 90 billion euros of support will begin to flow. That could be a lifesaver at a time that Russia is benefiting from the oil price rise and Trump's indifference to Ukraine and frankly what looks like loathing of Europe. If you haven't listened to the Zelensky interview yet, please do. As he himself admits, no leader is perfect. But when you compare his leadership skills, courage, the values, honesty, consistency, dare I say, perseverance, against the leadership values of Trump, as a retired diplomat messaged me on the back of listening to the interview, Trump is not fit to lace Zelensky's boots.

12:16Trump's election win, sending him back to the White House, was a big blow to liberal democracy and a big blow to Ukraine. and so to Europe. The ordinary people of Hungary have shown there is another way, which is why the celebrations are taking place well beyond the country's borders. And just on that, we got lots of emails from listeners. We do seem to have plenty of listeners in Hungary, and I want to close by reading one out that we got this morning from somebody by the name of Darina. She says, my name is Darina. As of a few years and as of a few hours ago, I'm a 32-year-old proud again Hungarian.

12:50I wanted to give you an insight into what we're feeling today in Budapest. It's like New Year's Eve. People are lighting fireworks. Everyone is on the streets. We genuinely cannot believe this has happened. We're having the biggest party of our lives. We're not going home anytime soon. I wanted to thank you for your coverage of the elections because it helped me illustrate its significance when I was speaking to non-Hungarian friends. we already felt the wind of change on Friday when we went to a huge regime change concert but we didn't dare hope now we can we're optimistic and looking forward to the future Peter Magyar is not perfect I never would have voted for him under normal circumstances but he's our best chance and I really really hope he will not let us down thank you for all you do and for rooting for us now let's get on working to get the UK back into the European Union too all the best from an extremely happy Hungarian.

13:47So there you go. That's how she's feeling. That's, I'm sure, how others are feeling. It's frankly how I'm feeling as well. Back for more later in the week when Rory's back from his holiday. Lots to talk about. Hungary, of course. Ukraine, Iran, elections in Scotland and Wales and local councils on May the 7th. So much to talk about in the main episode and in question time. See you then. But for now, well done, Hungary. Thank you.